ben page, chief executive, ipsos mori

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Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI

Local government in 2013…

[email protected] @benatipsosmori www.ipsos-mori.com


Real budget increase 2010–11 to 2015–16

Impressive reductions in spending….

Note: Figures show cumulative change in total DEL after economy-wide inflation. Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies, July 2013

CLG CommunitiesForeign and Commonwealth Office

Culture, Media and SportWork and Pensions

CLG Local Government Justice

Environment, Food and Rural AffairsBusiness, Innovation and Skills

Home OfficeTotal DEL

DefenceEducation

Energy and Climate ChangeTransport

NHS (Health)International Development

-60.6-55.1

-45.0-38.3

-35.0-34.1-33.6

-25.9-24.1

-10.3-8.9-8.4

-4.80.3

4.235.5


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Half full or half empty?


Formerly loony councils now pretty good!

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

23

53

74

Base: Hackney Residents Survey All respondents (1,016). Fieldwork dates 5 January – 6 March 2013; Inner LB Residents Survey (1,153, 16+, face to face ). Fieldwork dates 18 April - 28 June 2011; 2011 Ipsos MORI National Capibus, (875, 15+ face to face). Fieldwork October 2011.

Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Hackney Council runs things?

% s

atis

fied

with

cou

ncil

Year of survey

% of residents satisfied with Hackney Council


Q On balance, do you think services provided by your local council have got better or worse over the last 12 months, or do you think they have

stayed the same?

Most of the public hasn’t seen much change in their council’s services

14%

28%56%

2% Got better

Got worse

Stayed the same

Don't know

Base: 1,007 adults aged 18+ in Great Britain, August 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Net better

GB -14

London -7

South -11

Midlands -8

North -27


2001 2003 2005 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2012-1310

20

30

40

50

60

70

36 38 37 35 3429

3633

52 5457

60 6162 64 63

No sign of a crisis in trust

Base: Core sample in England; (2001: 9,270, 2003: 8,859, 2005: 9,104, 2007-08: 8,729, 2008-09: 8,706, 2009-10: 8,677, 2010-11: 9,521, Aug 2012 – April 2013: 6,915)

Trust %

Source: Citizenship Survey/ Community Life Survey


Do you think each service has got better or worse in the last five years, or has it stayed the same?

Nationally as many services improving as deteriorating

Base: 1,031 Source: BBC October 2013

Recycling collectionParks and open spaces

GPs surgeriesRefuse collection

HospitalsSchools and colleges

Leisure centresBus service

Street lightingLibraries

Street cleaningThe police

Care for the elderlyRoad maintenance

Meals-on-wheels

2715

1113

118

14889

7544

2118

1816

1620

11131211

1210

77

3

69

1411

149

411

99

1015

1018

3

66

1412

168

3887

111312

492

Got much better Got a little better Got a little worse Got much worse


67.9 67.2 62.3 59.5 58.8 58.5 54.6 53.8 51.9 51.9 51.0 48.130.3

Street lighting ok – not road condition….

Q2. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with…?

Street lighting

Overall

Source: m2i

Road condition

Base: valid responses among 53,676 British adults (70 LAs), July-August 2013

Buses Cycle routes/facilities


Clear what’s getting worse

Reducing trafficChange +

-0.4-0.8

+0.5

+1.1

+0.7

-3.9-1.4

Q2. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with…?

+6.0

Local buses

Community transport

Pavements

Taxi services

Rights of Way

Overall*

Demand responsive transport

Safer roads

Street lighting

-10.5

-0.3

Cycle routes

Source: m2i

Highway condition

+0.5

-0.8

Base: valid responses among 53,676 British adults (70 LAs), July-August 2013

*vs 2010


41 4145

5145

4042

3036

42

4752

46 46

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

% Dissatisfied % SatisfiedQ. How satisfied or dissatisfied would you say you are with road maintenance in this area?

Not always been like this

Base: 1,000-2,000 GB adultsSource: Ipsos MORI for CSS


Dissatisfaction in County Councils – from 53% to 81%...

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

70 LAs

Base: valid responses among 53,676 English adults (70 LAs), July-August 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI


Do you think each service has got better or worse in the last five years, or has it stayed the same?

Among users…look at the bottom….

Base: Response from those who use the service Source: BBC October 2013

Leisure centres

Schools and colleges

Parks and open spaces

Meals on wheels

Libraries

Bus services

GP service

Hospitals

Care for the elderly

36

43

36

23

29

29

29

28

22

9

22

16

11

22

23

28

32

32

Worse Better Net score

+27

+21

+20

+7

+12

+6

+1

-4

-10


Q How well do you feel that these groups are currently cared for by the NHS in your local area?

Care for people with dementia is considered poor

Source: Ipsos MORI/DH Perceptions of the NHS Tracker

20%

10%

9%

5%

4%

49%

45%

46%

30%

23%

9%

17%

15%

23%

24%

2%

6%

5%

8%

10%

20%

21%

25%

35%

39%

Very well Quite well Not very well Not well at all Don’t know

Children and families

People over 65

People with long term illnesses or conditions

People with mental health conditions

People with dementia

Base: Adults aged 16+ in England, December 2012 (1004)


How confident are you or not that older people who receive care services (such as help with getting dressed or washing) either at home or in a care home are treated with dignity and respect?

Almost 2 in 3 lack confidence that older people receiving care services are treated with dignity and respect

Source: Ipsos MORI/Age UK

Very confident

Fairly confident

Not very confident

Not at all confident

Don’t know

Base: General public aged 50+ (971) 8-26 March 2013

Not confident

63%

Confident28%


To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements

Majority haven’t noticed changes to service – BUT...

Base: 1,015 British adults 18+ Ipsos MORI/ NLGN, January 2013

I haven’t really noticed any changes to the services provided by my local council

The cuts in local council services have gone too far and will lead to social unrest

34

47

65

48

Disagree Agree

Agree = 29% Conservatives, 60% Labour

Around one in four people agree with both statements....


31%

35%

23%

10%1%

August 2013

Very concerned Fairly concerned Not very concerned Not at all concerned Don't know

Q How concerned, if at all, are you about the effect of cuts to local council services on you and your family in the next 12 months?

BUT… although economic worry on wane nationally, locally public growing concerned about what is yet to come

21%

34%

32%

12% 1%

January 2013

Base: 1,007 adults aged 18+ in Britain, August 2013 / 1,015 adults aged 18+ in Britain, January 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Concerned 66%

Concerned 55%


% very or fairly concerned about the effect of the cuts on them and their families

Varies as you’d expect…

Base: All members of the public interviewed online in GB (1,009); fieldwork, 9-11 November 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI

AllAB C1 C2 D E

Up to £

19k

£20k

- £35

k

£35k

- £55

k£5

5k+

1-2 s

ervice

s

3 serv

ices

4+ se

rvice

s

6155 58 62

6977

72

6054 52 54

6172

Social grade Income Public service use


I am personally happy to accept less from my local council than I currently get in order to help pay off the national debt

I would be happy to pay more council tax if it helped my local council maintain current levels of service

57

64

40

34

Disagree

Q To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements

Public contradiction about the tough road ahead presents challenges for how things are managed in the future

Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, January 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI/ NLGN


At a time when councils have to manage this...


Generations – expecting better or worse life than parents?

Better%

Worse%

Generation Y 42 29

Generation X 60 19

Baby Boomers 70 14

Pre-War 79 8


Generational change makes your jobs harder


All data points represent > 200 responses Source: British Social Attitudes

“How much do you agree or disagree that … the creation of the welfare state is one of Britain's proudest achievements.”

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000)

% % Agree/Strongly agree

Different generations now have very different expectations


A noble goal...what would make you happiest?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+Age

%

Double my

income Better Health

Base: 2,015 interviewed face to face in home in GB aged 15 +, 20-25 Sept


1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

76

6

Q How is your health in general? Would you say it was...

The public claim to be in good health

Base: Adults aged 16+ in England (at least 4,500 per wave) Source: Health Survey for England

%

Very good/ good health

Very bad/ bad health

Data up to 2002 are unweighted. From 2003 onwards, data have been weighted for non-response


The facts say …..obesity levels

Source: Health Survey for England


The facts say - booze consumed

Source: Health Survey for England


CancerObesity/overeating

Alcohol abuseHeart disease

Age-related illnessesSmokingDiabetes

Unhealthy lifestyleStress/pressure

Obesity in childrenDementia

Mental healthPoor diet

Drugs abuseLack of exercise

34%30%

16%16%16%

13%10%9%9%8%8%8%7%6%5%

Q Thinking generally, what are the biggest health problems facing people today? What else?

They are aware of the big health issues

Source: Ipsos MORI/DH Perceptions of the NHS TrackerBase: 1,004 English adults aged 16+, Dec 2012

All mentions above 2%


Your lifestyle

Your genes

Your social circumstances

NHS

Whether you are male or female

Having a university degree

No answer

Don't know

79%

39%

35%

17%

7%

2%

1%

1%

And they say they recognise the importance of lifestyle

Q Looking at this card, which factors, if any, do you think have the biggest impact on your chances of living a long and healthy life?

Base: 1,994 British adults, Aug 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI


44%40%

24%23%

17%15%

10%9%

6%4%3%2%

19%

Q Which of the following would encourage you to lead a healthier lifestyle?

Lower prices for using leisure centres

Lower prices for healthy food

Better sports and leisure facilities

Having more time

Being told to by my doctor for health reasons

Having more healthy food available in local shops

Better access to weight loss services

Better information about how to eat healthily

Better information about how to be more physically active

Having help with my caring responsibilities

Better access to stop smoking services

Advice and support to stop/cut down drinking alcohol

Base: 4,824 adults, Sept - Dec 2011

They claim price is key to helping them be healthier

Nothing, I already lead a healthy lifestyle

Source: Ipsos MORI


How do human beings make choices/decisions ?

Gather pertinent information

Process pertinent information

Calculate optimal choice

Rational decision-making process

Decidebased on faulty cal-culations

Decide without fully

processing the facts

Short- circuits

of the ‘rational’ process

Decide without all the

data/using irrelevant

data

Traditional analysis of human decision making by economists


Case study – five a day

Source: 5 a Day campaigns in Argentina, Chile, Germany, Japan, Mexico, Spain, UK, US

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.mercalicante.com/descarga/logo%205%20al%20dia%20peq.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.mercalicante.com/contenidos.asp?id=122&m=1&submenu=34&start=1&h=443&w=400&sz=19&tbnid=CXrrlw725TEKKM:&tbnh=127&tbnw=115&hl=en&um=1&prev=/images?q=5+al+dia+logo&svnum=10&um=1&hl=en&rls=SUNA,SUNA:2005-45,SUNA:en


Have you eaten any fruit and vegetables in the last 24 hours?

Re-thinking approaches: the limitation of communications

Base: 1,732, 2 February 27-March 2009 Source: Ipsos MORI

Awareness of 5-a-day recommendation 2005

%2009

%5 portions a day 68 781-4 portions a day 14 86+ portions a day 3 1Don’t know 14 10Not stated 2 3

1 portion

2 portions

3 portions

4 portions

5+ portions

Not stated

5

10

11

13

55

6

7

10

12

14

49

8

20092005


What are behaviour change interventions?

“Spillage was reduced by up to 80%”


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Thaler & Sunstein, Nudge

Any aspect of the choice architecture that alters people’s behaviour in a predictable way


Successful change campaigns use a mix of informing, enabling, incentivising and enforcing

Source: Websites, press search

Influence

Incentivise

Inform

Enable

Enforce


But we can also learn from behavioural science

Influence

Incentivise

Inform

Enable

Enforce

People make choices without going through a full ‘rational’

decision-making process’ Certain biases pre-dispose

people to short-cut the rational decision-making process Using these biases in a systematic way can make

campaigns significantly more likely to succeed


Or even more simply….


Question

What percentage of

African countries

are members of the

United Nations?


Evidence – anchoring

Source: Kahneman and Tversky, 1974

Numbers shown on“roulette” wheel

Mean estimate ofrespondents

10

65

25%

45%


Imagine you have a life-threatening illness and your doctor has told you that you need an operation to treat it. How likely, if at all, are you to have this operation if your doctor tells you that...

The significance of framing/anchoring

Base: c. 500 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

Very likely

Quite likely

Not very likely

Not at all likely

Don't know

56

33

3

1

7

39

38

6

2

16

10% of people who have the operation die within 5 years of the operation90% of people who have the operation are alive for at least 5 years following the operation

Avoid communications on “negatives”


Example bias – anchoring

People’s estimates are swayed by data suggested to them beforehand, even

when they know the data is irrelevant or

false.

Source: Daniel Kahneman, Daniel Tversky (1974); McKinsey synthesis


Case study – anchoring!

Source: 6 a Day campaign in Denmark


Example bias – Social norms

Source: Bandura, Grusec and Menlove (1967); Milgram et al (1969); Cialdini; McKinsey synthesis

People tend to follow their peer

group – if they see many people doing something, they aim to do it

too.


You are more likely to obtain a

large commitment if

you obtain a small one first.

Example bias – reciprocity

Source: Festinger, 1957; Cialdini (2006); McKinsey synthesis


Behavioural Norms we can use….

Decide without all the data/using

irrelevant data

Decide without fully processing all the facts

Decide based on faulty

calculations

Short-circuits of rational decision-making process

Reciprocity Liking

Consistency Scarcity Endowment

Social norms Authority

Status quo

Availability/ recency

Choice overload Justifiability Anchoring

Breakpoints

Certainty preferenceLoss aversion Probability

misassessment

Regret aversionFraming/ contrast

Hyperbolic discounting

Mental accounting

Our Biases

False memory


Smarter design to reduce error

Source: ‘Applying behavioural insights to reduce error, fraud and debt,’ Cabinet Office, 2012


Using social norms


Optimising messages


Loft insulation – its not money

Source: Behavioural Insights Team, 2012Control Group Discount Loft Clearance at cost

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

1.0 1.1

4.8Loft insulation relative to baseline


Handwritten envelopes

Brown Personalised0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

21.8%26.0%

% Response Rate to white envelopes with personalised messages vs. brown envelopes with no message


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Opportunities….


54

81

7675

72

72

7067

66

51

40

1425

16

22

2422

12

2

% Prepared to do % Have done

Massive latent DIGITAL demand Q Thinking about public services, which, if any, of the following would

you be prepared to do online? Q And which have you actually done online in the last 6 months?

Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 1,002 adults in Great Britain aged 16+. Fieldwork dates: 13-19 May 2010

Find details of local doctors and dentists

Finding out what public services are spending money on

Get information about local schools

Register to vote

Apply for a driving licence or passport

Pay your local council tax bill or a parking fine

Make a complaint

Renew a library book

Report a crime


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In conclusion...

• You have dealt much better with austerity than even you might have suspected!

• Public fearful about the future for services, and for themselves

• The agenda just keeps getting bigger – focus becomes more and more important

• Huge opportunities from technology to improve services• More pressure to lead, rather than manage – tell the story and take people with you

• Key question – what sort of country do we want to be?• Good luck!


Thank you

@benatipsosmori www.ipsos-mori.com

ben page, chief executive, ipsos mori

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