Scottish Labour Party Conference 2011An Ipsos MORI briefingOctober 2011Contacts:Mark.Diffley@ipsos.com0131 240 3269

Holyrood

Our latest poll found Labour trailing the SNP by 21 points in Holyrood voting intention

28%

13%

7%

49%

Base: All certain to vote = 60% (611).Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

SNP

Labour

Conservative

Lib Dem

Others – 3%

Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?

0

10

20

30

40

50

Mar-05

Jun-05

Sep-05

Mar-06

Jun-06

May-07

2008 Aug-09

Nov-09

Feb-10

Aug-10

Nov-10

Feb-11

Apr-11

May-11

Aug-11

Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other

49%

3%

Just under a year ago, Labour looked on course to regain power at Holyrood, but support has fallen considerably

28%

13%

Scottish Parliament ElectionResult

Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone

7%

Scottish Parliament ElectionResult

Source: Ipsos MORI

Labour’s share of voting intention has fallen by 13 points in less than a year

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Lab SNP Con LibDem

Lab SNP Con LibDem

Lab SNP Con LibDem

Lab SNP Con LibDem

Lab SNP Con LibDem

Lab SNP Con LibDem

In the last year, Labour has lost support across all groups…

Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 18+, November 2010 and August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+

Percentage point change since November 2010 (+/-)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Lab SNP Con LibDem

Lab SNP Con LibDem

Lab SNP Con LibDem

Lab SNP Con LibDem

Lab SNP Con LibDem

…almost exclusively to the SNP

Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 18+, November 2010 and August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

Working Not working Retired Urban Rural

Percentage point change since November 2010 (+/-)

The challenge facing the new leader

Almost two thirds of Scots are satisfied with the way Alex Salmond is doing his job as First Minister

28%

9%

62%

Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

SatisfiedDissatisfied

Don’t know

Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Alex Salmond is doing his job as First Minister?

51%

32%

33%

26%

35%

30%

34%

34%

The new leader will have to do better than Iain Gray…

Base: 1,019 Scottish adults 18+, 14-18 April2011

Alex Salmond

Annabel Goldie

Satisfied Dissatisfied

Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing their job as …?

Net satisfaction Don’t know

14%

38%

Iain Gray 33%

+2

-1

-8Tavish Scott 40%

+16

Data from April 2011

Q. Before this interview, how much, if anything, would you say you knew about Iain Gray? Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Iain Gray is doing his job as leader of the Scottish Labour Party?

58%18%

24%

…particularly if they are to engage with the party’s supporters

15%

43%23%

19%

Knowledge among Labour supporters

Base: 1,019 Scottish adults 18+, 14-18 April 2011

A great deal

A little

Heard of but knew nothing about

Never heard of them

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Don’t know

Satisfaction among Labour supporters

Data from April 2011

Westminster

Labour fair slightly better in Westminster voting intention, but still trail the SNP by 19 points

33%

15%

6%

42%

Base: All certain to vote = 60% (611).Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

SNP

Labour

Conservative

Lib Dem

Others – 4%

Q. How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

0

10

20

30

40

50

Mar-05

May-05

Mar-06

Jun-06

2007 2008 Aug-09

Nov-09

Feb-10

Apr-10

May-10

Aug-10

Nov-10

Aug-11

Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other

Year

42%

4%

The party’s share of voting intention has fallen since the General Election

33%

15%

Base: All certain to vote – March 2005 (434); March 2006 (526); June 2006 (520); August (571); November 2009 (576); February 2010 (608); April 2010 (685); August 2010 (710); November 2010 (640); August 2011 (608)

Pre Aug 2009 – data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults face-to-face; Post Aug 2009 - Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone

6%

General Election Result

General Election Result

49%

16%

35%

Almost half of Scots are dissatisfied with his performance as party leader, while only around a third are satisfied…

Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Don’t know

Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as Leader of the Labour Party?

48%

44%

9%

35%

49%

16%

…and Ed still has some way to go to match the popularity of his predecessor in Scotland

Ed Miliband(August 2011)

% Don’t know% Satisfied % Dissatisfied

Gordon Brown(April 2010)

Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 14-17 April 2011; 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011

Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as Leader of the Labour Party/Prime Minister?

Source: Ipsos MORI

36%

9%

55%

A considerable proportion of Labour supporters are dissatisfied with his performance

Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Don’t know

Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as Leader of the Labour Party?

Important issues

31%

26%

20%

17%14%

12%

9%

7%

7%

33%

Unemployment is a particular concern for Labour supporters

Education/schools

Economy/economic situation

Unemployment/factory closure/ lack of industry

NHS/hospitals/health care

Immigration/immigrants (race relations)

Crime/law and order/ASB

Sectarianism

Q. What do you see as the most important issue facing Scotland today?Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Scotland today?

Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011

(Most + others)

Scottish independence/devolution

Housing

Public spending cuts

Laboursupporters

28%

32%

22%

27%

17%

11%8%6%

8%

20%

0

10

20

30

40

50

Aug 2009 Nov 2009 Feb 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Nov 2010 Feb 2011 May 2011 Aug 2011

Among Scots, the economy is the most important issue but concernabout unemployment has risen sharply since the election

NHS 17%

Education 26%

Crime 14%

Economy 33%

Unemployment 31%

Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone

Q. What do you see as the most important/other issue facing Scotland today?

Source: Ipsos MORI

Public sector cuts 20%

Economic optimism

22%

32%

42%

Scots are slightly more optimistic about the prospects for the Scottish economy than they are for the UK economy

18%

30%

49%

UK economy Scottish economy

Base: All asked about UK economy (508); all asked about Scottish economy (494) Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011

Q. Do you think that the general economic condition will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

Improve

Stay the same

Worsen

Don’t know, 2%

Improve

Stay the same

Worsen

Don’t know, 4%

Optimism has dipped slightly since April, though it is not as low as this time last year

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11

UK economy Scotland's economy% Net

improve

-31%

-20%

Q. Do you think that the general economic condition will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? (% improve minus % worse)

Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone (half were asked about UK economyand half about Scottish economy) Source: Ipsos MORI

UK General Election Comprehensive Spending Review

Scottish budget

approved

Scottish Parliament

Election

2815 15 24

48 53 44 33

Conservative supporters Labour supporters Lib Dem supporters SNP supporters

Labour supporters are most pessimistic about the Scottish economy

Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011

Q. Do you think that the general economic condition will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? (% improve minus % worse)

Source: Ipsos MORI

% Improve % Worsen

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11

Con Lab Lib SNP

And have consistently been the most pessimistic about the Scottish economy over the last year

% Net improve

-41%

-14%

Q. Do you think that the general economic condition of Scotland will improve, stay the same or get worse over next 12 months?(% improve minus % worse)

Base: All asked about Scottish economy (509).Scottish adults 18+, 10-14 February 2011

UK General Election Comprehensive Spending Review

-5%

+5%

Scottish budget approved

Scottish Parliament election

Independence

66%

26%

8%

The majority of Scots support increased powers for the Scottish Parliament…

Support

Oppose

Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 1,002 Scottish adults, 18+, 25th-29th August 2011

Q. The referendum is likely to contain two separate questions. The first question will ask whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to include more laws and duties and all tax raising powers, while Scotland remains part of the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with the proposal:

Undecided/ Don’t know

35%

58%

7%

Only a third of Scots support independence

Support

Oppose

Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 1,002 Scottish adults, 18+, 25th-29th August 2011

Q. The second question will ask whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to enable Scotland to become an independent country, separate from the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with this proposal:

Undecided/ Don’t know

19%

80%

Just over half of Labour supports support more powers while the vast majority oppose independence

57%38%

Full fiscal powers Independence

Base: All Labour supporter in Scottish Parliament election (174). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+,25-29 August 2011

Q. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with this proposal:

Source: Ipsos MORI

SupportOppose

Support

Oppose

Undecided/ Don’t know – 5% Undecided/ Don’t know – 1%

The majority of Scots would like the referendum to be held earlier than the SNP plans

27%

37%

6%

28%

Base: All certain to vote = 68% (703).Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

As soon as possible

Within the next 2 years

Between 2 and 5 years from now

Never/shouldn’t be held

Don’t know – 3%

Q. When do you think the referendum should be held?

55%

Thank youFor further information contactmark.diffley@ipsos.com on 0131 240 3269christopher.mclean@ipsos.com 0131 240 3264

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