ipsos mori scottish political monitor - december 2020€¦ · questions are asked of the total...

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2020 | Public3

Holyrood voting intention: constituency vote

All with a voting intentionHeadline voting intention

SNP lead = +33

Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political MonitorBase: 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 20-26 November 2020; Headline voting intention: all expressing a voting intention and 9 or 10/10 likely to vote (833); All with a voting intention: all expressing a voting

intention (921). Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4%. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is

a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in

mind when calculating party lead figures.

How do you intend to use your first (constituency) vote in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?

55%

22%

14%

6%

1%

1%

SNP

Conservative

Labour

Lib Dems

Green Party

Other

54%

22%

15%

6%

1%

1%

1%

SNP

Conservative

Labour

Lib Dems

Green Party

IndependentCandidate

Other

SNP lead = +32

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2020 | Public

47%

22%

16%

7%

6%

1%

1%

SNP

Conservative

Labour

Green Party

Lib Dems


Other

4

Holyrood voting intention: list vote

All with a voting intentionHeadline voting intention

Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor

How do you intend to use your second (list) vote in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?

SNP lead = +25

Base: 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 20-26 November 2020; Headline voting intention: all expressing a voting intention and 9 or 10/10 likely to vote (833); All with voting intention: all expressing a voting

intention (933). Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4%. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is

a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in

mind when calculating party lead figures.

48%

21%

16%

7%

6%

1%

1%

SNP

Conservative

Labour

Green Party

Lib Dems


Other

SNP lead = +27


Headline voting intention: Constituency voting trend

5

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

55%SNP

November 2020

22%Conservative

14%Labour

6%Liberal Democrat

1%Green

Base: c. 800-900 Scottish adults aged 16+ per wave, expressing a voting intention and likely to vote. Fieldwork dates: 2nd-9th October and 20th-26th November 2020

5855

19 22

13 148 61 10

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Oct 20 Nov 20

How do you intend to use your first (constituency) vote in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?


Headline voting intention: List voting trend

6

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

47%SNP

November 2020

22%Conservative

16%Labour

7%Green

6%Liberal Democrat

Base: c. 800-900 Scottish adults aged 16+ per wave, expressing a voting intention and likely to vote. Fieldwork dates: 2nd-9th October and 20th-26th November 2020

47 47

19 22

13 16

8 69 7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Oct 20 Nov 20

How do you intend to use your second (list) vote in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?


Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 7

VIEWS ON INDEPENDENCE



Support for independence

If a referendum were held tomorrow about Scotland's constitutional future, how would you vote in response to the following question:Should Scotland be an independent country?

53%41%

6%Yes

No

Undecided

All likely to vote

56%

44%

Yes

No

All likely to vote and expressing a voting

intention

Base: All Scottish adults aged 16+ who are 9/10 or 10/10 likely to vote in a Scottish independence referendum (913); All

Scottish adults 16+ who are 9/10 or 10/10 likely to vote in a Scottish independence referendum and expressing a voting

intention (857) , 20-26 November 2020


Support for independence: change over time

February 2013 – November 2020

44%No

56%Yes

Base: c.1,000 Scottish adults aged 16+ per wave. Based on all likely to vote, excluding undecideds/don’t knows

9

If a referendum were held tomorrow about Scotland’s constitutional future, how would you vote in

response to the following question: Should Scotland be an independent country?


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


41%

79%

25%

21%

21%

33%

79%

All

Current Yes voters

Current No voters

1-2 3-8 9-10


Strength of opinion on independence and staying part of the UK

On a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 means ‘I completely support Scotland becoming independent’ and 10

means ‘I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK’ what number would you consider yourself

to be?

Base: All Scottish adults aged 16+ (1006), 20-26 November 2020


Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 11

VIEWS ON BREXIT



Attitude towards Brexit

Some people are worried about Brexit, while others see it as a new opportunity. How do you feel about the impact of Brexit? Would you say you feel …

9%

14%

20%

22%

32%

Base: All Scottish adults aged 16+ (1006), 20-26 November 2020

3%

3%Don’t know

9%Very optimistic

14%Fairly optimistic

22%Fairly pessimistic

32%Very pessimistic

20%Neither optimistic nor pessimistic


75%

74%

66%

65%

59%

59%

22%

23%

31%

30%

38%

38%

Standing up for Scotland’s interests

Responding to the Coronavirus crisisin Scotland

Managing the NHS in Scotland

Tackling inequality in Scotland

Managing Scotland’s economy

Managing education and schools inScotland

Trust in the SNP

14


How much, if at all, would you say you trust the Scottish National Party to deal effectively with ...

NET TRUST

+53

+51

+35

+35

+21

+21

Base: 1006 Scottish adults aged 16+, 20-26 November 2020

Great deal/ quite a lot Not very much/ not at all(%)


33%

32%

31%

30%

29%

26%

61%

63%

63%

66%

65%

68%







Trust in the Scottish Conservative Party

15


How much, if at all, would you say you trust the Scottish Conservative Party to deal effectively with ...



NET TRUST

-28

-31

-32

-36

-36

-42


42%

42%

40%

36%

34%

31%

51%

52%

52%

58%

57%

64%







Trust in the Scottish Labour Party

16


How much, if at all, would you say you trust the Scottish Labour Party to deal effectively with ...

NET TRUST

-9

-10

-12

-22

-23

-33



Technical note

Ipsos MORI Scotland interviewed a representative sample of

1,006 adults aged 16+ across Scotland. Interviews were

conducted by telephone: 20 – 26 November 2020. Data are

weighted by age, sex, region, social grade, working status,

tenure, education and country of birth to match the profile of

the population.

Where percentages do not sum to 100 this may be due to

computer rounding, the exclusion of “don’t know” categories,

or multiple answers. An asterisk (*) denotes any value of less

than half a per cent.

Questions are asked of the total sample of n=1,006 unless

otherwise stated.

Ipsos MORIScottish Political Monitor 2020

For more information

Emily Gray

Managing Director, Ipsos MORI Scotland

[email protected]

Rachel Ormston

Research Director, Ipsos MORI Scotland

[email protected]

Catriona Millar

Research Executive, Ipsos MORI Scotland

[email protected]

ipsos mori scottish political monitor - december 2020€¦ · questions are asked of the total...

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