the tarrance group, inc. / lake research partners …september 7-9, 2010 ~ n=1000 likely voters ~...

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67% 23% 10% 1000 68% 20% 12% 214 65% 26% 9% 168 60% 27% 13% 248 71% 23% 6% 86 68% 22% 11% 76 72% 26% 2% 70 72% 19% 9% 139 68% 22% 9% 101 71% 15% 14% 47 70% 26% 3% 53 66% 20% 13% 56 66% 24% 10% 742 67% 25% 8% 300 67% 23% 10% 700 62% 26% 12% 230 67% 22% 11% 309 68% 23% 8% 460 68% 24% 8% 446 66% 23% 11% 554 64% 25% 11% 440 70% 20% 10% 364 65% 27% 8% 196 65% 26% 9% 214 68% 23% 9% 540 64% 23% 13% 246 66% 25% 9% 480 67% 22% 11% 520 65% 24% 11% 287 68% 26% 6% 193 66% 22% 13% 282 68% 23% 9% 238 40% 33% 26% 120 65% 23% 12% 245 72% 20% 8% 335 72% 24% 4% 300 TOTAL Northeast Midwest South South Central Central Plains Mountain States West RG1 GEOGRAPHIC AREAS ONE California Florida Texas New York Rest of country RG2 GEOGRAPHIC AREAS TWO McCain state Obama state ST2008 2008 PRESIDENTIAL WINNER 2 GOP U.S. Senators Mixed U.S. Senate delegation 2 DEM U.S. Senators SENCNTRL U.S. SENATE REPRESENTATION GOP control DEM control PTYCNTRL PARTY CONTROL OF CD 10%+ unemployment 8%-9.9% unemployment Less than 8% unemployment RGEMP UNEMPLOYMENT BY STATE Rural Suburban Urban URBAN URBAN CODE Male Female GENDER GENDER Male / employed Male / not employed Female / employed Female / not employed RSEXEMP RESPONDENT'S SEX / EMPLOYMENT/C 18-29 30-44 45-59 60 and older RAGEBG AGE/C UPELECT Extremely likely Very likely Somewhat likely UPELECT LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING IN UPCOMING ELECTION TOTAL (cont.) THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERS POLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted Tables September 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1% Page 1

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  • 67% 23% 10% 1000

    68% 20% 12% 214

    65% 26% 9% 168

    60% 27% 13% 248

    71% 23% 6% 86

    68% 22% 11% 76

    72% 26% 2% 70

    72% 19% 9% 139

    68% 22% 9% 101

    71% 15% 14% 47

    70% 26% 3% 53

    66% 20% 13% 56

    66% 24% 10% 742

    67% 25% 8% 300

    67% 23% 10% 700

    62% 26% 12% 230

    67% 22% 11% 309

    68% 23% 8% 460

    68% 24% 8% 446

    66% 23% 11% 554

    64% 25% 11% 440

    70% 20% 10% 364

    65% 27% 8% 196

    65% 26% 9% 214

    68% 23% 9% 540

    64% 23% 13% 246

    66% 25% 9% 480

    67% 22% 11% 520

    65% 24% 11% 287

    68% 26% 6% 193

    66% 22% 13% 282

    68% 23% 9% 238

    40% 33% 26% 120

    65% 23% 12% 245

    72% 20% 8% 335

    72% 24% 4% 300

    TOTAL

    Northeast

    Midwest

    South

    South Central

    Central Plains

    Mountain States

    West

    RG1 GEOGRAPHICAREAS ONE

    California

    Florida

    Texas

    New York

    Rest of country

    RG2 GEOGRAPHICAREAS TWO

    McCain state

    Obama state

    ST2008 2008PRESIDENTIALWINNER

    2 GOP U.S. Senators

    Mixed U.S. Senatedelegation2 DEM U.S. Senators

    SENCNTRL U.S.SENATEREPRESENTATION

    GOP control

    DEM control

    PTYCNTRL PARTYCONTROL OF CD

    10%+ unemployment

    8%-9.9% unemployment

    Less than 8%unemployment

    RGEMPUNEMPLOYMENT BYSTATE

    Rural

    Suburban

    Urban

    URBAN URBAN CODE

    Male

    Female

    GENDER GENDER

    Male / employed

    Male / not employed

    Female / employed

    Female / not employed

    RSEXEMPRESPONDENT'S SEX /EMPLOYMENT/C

    18-29

    30-44

    45-59

    60 and older

    RAGEBG AGE/C

    UPELECT

    Extremelylikely

    Very likely Somewhatlikely

    UPELECT LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING INUPCOMING ELECTION

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 1

  • 45% 34% 21% 174

    68% 20% 13% 191

    73% 21% 7% 408

    73% 23% 4% 202

    65% 27% 8% 24

    57% 27% 16% 365

    73% 21% 7% 408

    72% 24% 5% 227

    63% 24% 12% 303

    72% 25% 3% 177

    63% 22% 15% 281

    72% 23% 5% 239

    69% 23% 8% 750

    57% 19% 24% 120

    62% 33% 6% 90

    69% 25% 6% 40

    68% 23% 9% 386

    70% 22% 8% 364

    49% 32% 18% 36

    60% 14% 26% 84

    69% 28% 3% 37

    57% 36% 7% 53

    74% 23% 3% 251

    64% 24% 12% 749

    69% 24% 7% 410

    64% 24% 12% 180

    65% 23% 12% 410

    69% 25% 6% 231

    70% 22% 8% 179

    60% 28% 12% 164

    69% 20% 12% 246

    73% 18% 10% 85

    57% 29% 14% 95

    66% 24% 10% 227

    74% 23% 3% 183

    61% 23% 16% 254

    72% 22% 6% 156

    62% 21% 17% 102

    67% 28% 5% 78

    18-34

    35-44

    45-64

    65 or over

    Unsure / refused

    RAGE RESPONDENT'SAGE/C

    18-44

    45-64

    65 or over

    RAGEFLRESPONDENT'SAGE/C

    Male / under 55

    Male / 55+

    Female / under 55

    Female / 55+

    RR96FL AGE / SEX

    White

    Black / African American

    Hispanic / Latino

    Other

    RRACERESPONDENT'SRACE/C

    White men

    White women

    Black men

    Black women

    Hispanic men

    Hispanic women

    GENRACE RACE BYGENDER

    White seniors

    Other

    WHITE SENIORS

    Republican

    Independent

    Democrat

    RPARTYID PARTYIDENTIFICATION/C

    Male / GOP

    Female / GOP

    Male / DEM

    Female / DEM

    Male / IND

    Female / IND

    RPTYID89 SEX /PARTY ID

    Under 55 / GOP

    55 & over / GOP

    Under 55 / DEM

    55 & over / DEM

    Under 55 / IND

    55 & over / IND

    RPTY90FL AGE /PARTYIDENTIFICATION

    UPELECT

    Extremelylikely

    Very likely Somewhatlikely

    UPELECT LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING INUPCOMING ELECTION

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 2

  • 73% 22% 6% 429

    52% 35% 13% 121

    65% 22% 13% 449

    72% 23% 5% 360

    66% 24% 10% 77

    59% 29% 12% 121

    56% 22% 22% 67

    66% 23% 11% 375

    69% 22% 9% 578

    62% 25% 14% 102

    64% 26% 10% 320

    73% 23% 4% 217

    66% 22% 12% 361

    64% 25% 11% 422

    69% 24% 7% 410

    64% 24% 12% 180

    62% 22% 16% 123

    66% 23% 10% 287

    73% 22% 5% 381

    65% 24% 11% 469

    59% 41% 4

    51% 28% 21% 60

    54% 26% 20% 60

    62% 28% 10% 26

    46% 30% 24% 71

    60% 30% 10% 216

    63% 26% 11% 258

    75% 18% 7% 455

    59% 27% 14% 165

    68% 23% 9% 835

    54% 27% 19% 194

    70% 22% 8% 604

    68% 25% 8% 202

    64% 24% 12% 348

    68% 23% 9% 652

    66% 25% 10% 168

    62% 24% 14% 181

    Republican

    Ticket splitter

    Democrat

    RPARTY USUAL VOTEBEHAVIOR/C

    Hard GOP

    Soft GOP

    Ticket splitter

    Soft DEM

    Hard DEM

    PARTISAN PARTISAN

    Conservative

    Moderate

    Liberal

    RIDEOLRESPONDENT'SIDEOLOGY/C

    Very conservative

    Somewhat conservative

    Moderate / liberal

    RRIDEOLRESPONDENT'SIDEOLOGY/C

    Republican

    Independent

    Conservative DEM

    Mod / lib DEM

    RPTYID98 TARGETGROUPS

    John McCain

    Barack Obama

    Ralph Nader

    Other

    Refused

    Unsure

    PRES08 2008PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

    Less than high school

    High school graduate

    Some college

    College graduate

    REDUCRESPONDENT'SEDUCATION/C

    Union household

    Non-union household

    RUNION MEMBER OFLABOR UNION /TEACHERS' ASSN/C

    Single

    Married

    No longer married

    RMARITAL MARITALSTATUS/C

    Yes

    No

    RCHILD HAVECHILDREN LIVING ATHOME/C

    Dad

    Mom

    MOMDAD PARENTS

    UPELECT

    Extremelylikely

    Very likely Somewhatlikely

    UPELECT LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING INUPCOMING ELECTION

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 3

  • 66% 23% 11% 279

    74% 21% 5% 325

    43% 31% 26% 24

    68% 24% 8% 67

    60% 25% 15% 37

    53% 27% 20% 157

    73% 24% 3% 111

    68% 21% 11% 178

    71% 20% 10% 162

    68% 28% 4% 162

    65% 24% 10% 204

    66% 22% 13% 86

    63% 26% 11% 207

    70% 23% 8% 407

    67% 21% 11% 162

    66% 25% 9% 113

    62% 26% 12% 43

    67% 24% 9% 102

    75% 17% 8% 71

    71% 26% 3% 101

    66% 23% 11% 126

    92% 8% 7

    65% 24% 11% 593

    62% 26% 12% 153

    69% 24% 7% 327

    65% 25% 10% 190

    68% 21% 11% 330

    65% 27% 8% 227

    60% 24% 17% 116

    67% 25% 7% 171

    65% 18% 16% 52

    60% 30% 11% 57

    55% 28% 17% 63

    Married / children

    Married / no children

    Divorced / children

    Divorced / no children

    Single / children

    Single / no children

    Other / mixed

    BUNDY MARITALSTATUS / CHILDREN

    Catholic

    Protestant

    Baptist

    Fundamentalist /PentecostalOther

    No affiliation

    RDENOMRESPONDENT'SRELIGION/C

    At least once a week

    At least once a month

    Infrequently

    Never

    RDENOMFR HOWOFTEN DO YOUATTEND CHURCH/C

    Active Catholic

    Active Protestant

    Active Baptist

    Active Fundamentalist /PentecostalActive Other

    Non-active

    CHRUCH2 RELIGIOUSFOCUS

    Male born again /evangelicalsMale not evangelical

    Female born again /evangelicalsFemale not evangelical

    SEXBORN GENDERAND BORN AGAIN

    White Evangelical

    Non-white Evangelical

    RACEVANG RACE /EVANGELICAL

    White conservativeChristiansNon-white conservativeChristiansWhite non-conservativeChristiansNon-whitenon-conservativeChristians

    IDEOVAN IDEOLOGY /EVANGELICALCHRISTIANS

    UPELECT

    Extremelylikely

    Very likely Somewhatlikely

    UPELECT LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING INUPCOMING ELECTION

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 4

  • 70% 19% 11% 279

    46% 36% 17% 97

    68% 24% 8% 624

    72% 23% 5% 427

    62% 18% 19% 147

    63% 25% 11% 426

    58% 29% 13% 180

    74% 22% 3% 128

    66% 28% 7% 110

    55% 22% 23% 93

    71% 18% 11% 256

    67% 24% 9% 230

    65% 22% 13% 119

    68% 21% 11% 627

    75% 23% 2% 59

    64% 31% 5% 83

    52% 48% 18

    83% 17% 7

    58% 28% 15% 14

    64% 20% 16% 248

    47% 34% 20% 113

    71% 23% 6% 639

    54% 25% 20% 93

    72% 26% 1% 170

    67% 21% 12% 248

    71% 21% 8% 338

    58% 29% 14% 151

    65% 22% 13% 447

    46% 38% 17% 71

    71% 23% 6% 482

    66% 21% 12% 430

    45% 41% 14% 17

    60% 30% 11% 218

    73% 21% 6% 235

    73% 22% 5% 100

    69% 24% 7% 456

    53% 29% 18% 124

    68% 21% 11% 420

    Right direction

    Unsure

    Wrong track

    RDIRECT DIRECTIONTHINGS IN COUNTRYARE GOING/C

    Republican

    Undecided

    Democrat

    RGENERCG GENERICCONGRESSIONALBALLOT/C

    Wars in Iraq &AfghanistanIllegal immigration

    Taxes

    Terrorism & HS

    Gov't spending

    Health care reform

    Retirement & SS

    Economy & jobs

    Reforming Wall Street

    Combo / equally

    Other

    None

    Unsure

    CONGIS12 MOSTIMPORTANT ISSUE /COMBINED

    Approve

    Unsure

    Disapprove

    RCONGJACONGRESSIONAL JOBAPPROVAL/C

    Approve both

    Approve GOP only

    Approve DEM only

    Disapprove both

    Other

    CONJAPARCONGRESSIONAL JOBAPPROVAL BY PARTY

    Approve

    Unsure

    Disapprove

    RBHOJA BARACKOBAMA JOBAPPROVAL/C

    Consistent approve

    Approve job / drop-offpersonalApprove personal /drop-off jobConsistent disapprove

    Other

    DROP OBAMAAPPROVALCONSISTENCY

    GOP Candidate

    Undecided

    Obama

    RPRESBALPRESIDENTIALBALLOT/C

    UPELECT

    Extremelylikely

    Very likely Somewhatlikely

    UPELECT LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING INUPCOMING ELECTION

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 5

  • 73% 21% 6% 286

    66% 23% 11% 178

    64% 25% 11% 536

    66% 21% 12% 209

    65% 26% 9% 163

    67% 24% 9% 628

    68% 20% 11% 375

    41% 44% 15% 83

    69% 23% 8% 543

    72% 21% 7% 456

    60% 26% 13% 379

    68% 22% 10% 153

    68% 28% 4% 12

    91% 9% 0% 398

    87% 12% 1% 499

    84% 15% 1% 600

    81% 18% 2% 699

    67% 23% 10% 1000

    67% 23% 10% 1000

    GOP on 5-6 issues

    GOP on 3-4 issues

    GOP on 0-2 issues

    HANDCNTG GOPPREFERENCES ONISSUE HANDLING

    DEM on 5-6 issues

    DEM on 3-4 issues

    DEM on 0-2 issues

    HANDCNTD DEMPREFERENCES ONISSUE HANDLING

    Agree

    Unsure

    Disagree

    RSTIMAD ECONOMICSTIMULUS ISWORKING/C

    Excellent / good

    Just fair

    Poor

    Unsure

    RPEREC RATEPERSONALECONOMICSITUATION/C

    Most likely 40%

    Most likely 50%

    Most likely 60%

    Most likely 70%

    100% of sample

    TURNOUT TURNOUTOF MOST LIKELYVOTERS

    TOTAL

    UPELECT

    Extremelylikely

    Very likely Somewhatlikely

    UPELECT LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING INUPCOMING ELECTION

    TOTAL

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 6

  • 28% 10% 62% 1000

    30% 6% 64% 214

    30% 6% 64% 168

    29% 10% 61% 248

    21% 15% 64% 86

    23% 10% 67% 76

    21% 14% 65% 70

    30% 14% 56% 139

    35% 11% 54% 101

    22% 18% 60% 47

    19% 11% 70% 53

    33% 7% 60% 56

    28% 9% 63% 742

    25% 11% 64% 300

    29% 9% 62% 700

    26% 11% 63% 230

    22% 9% 68% 309

    32% 9% 58% 460

    24% 11% 65% 446

    31% 9% 61% 554

    27% 9% 64% 440

    29% 7% 64% 364

    28% 17% 56% 196

    21% 11% 69% 214

    27% 10% 63% 540

    35% 8% 56% 246

    24% 11% 66% 480

    32% 9% 60% 520

    26% 9% 65% 287

    21% 12% 67% 193

    34% 6% 60% 282

    28% 12% 59% 238

    20% 20% 59% 120

    36% 7% 57% 245

    30% 8% 62% 335

    23% 9% 68% 300

    TOTAL

    Northeast

    Midwest

    South

    South Central

    Central Plains

    Mountain States

    West

    RG1 GEOGRAPHICAREAS ONE

    California

    Florida

    Texas

    New York

    Rest of country

    RG2 GEOGRAPHICAREAS TWO

    McCain state

    Obama state

    ST2008 2008PRESIDENTIALWINNER

    2 GOP U.S. Senators

    Mixed U.S. Senatedelegation2 DEM U.S. Senators

    SENCNTRL U.S.SENATEREPRESENTATION

    GOP control

    DEM control

    PTYCNTRL PARTYCONTROL OF CD

    10%+ unemployment

    8%-9.9% unemployment

    Less than 8%unemployment

    RGEMPUNEMPLOYMENT BYSTATE

    Rural

    Suburban

    Urban

    URBAN URBAN CODE

    Male

    Female

    GENDER GENDER

    Male / employed

    Male / not employed

    Female / employed

    Female / not employed

    RSEXEMPRESPONDENT'S SEX /EMPLOYMENT/C

    18-29

    30-44

    45-59

    60 and older

    RAGEBG AGE/C

    RDIRECT

    Rightdirection

    Unsure Wrong track

    RDIRECT DIRECTION THINGS INCOUNTRY ARE GOING/C

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 7

  • 26% 16% 58% 174

    35% 8% 58% 191

    29% 8% 63% 408

    22% 10% 68% 202

    13% 14% 73% 24

    31% 11% 58% 365

    29% 8% 63% 408

    21% 11% 68% 227

    26% 11% 63% 303

    21% 9% 70% 177

    35% 9% 56% 281

    28% 9% 63% 239

    24% 9% 67% 750

    53% 11% 36% 120

    29% 12% 59% 90

    29% 15% 56% 40

    20% 11% 69% 386

    27% 7% 66% 364

    39% 14% 46% 36

    59% 10% 32% 84

    43% 3% 54% 37

    20% 18% 62% 53

    19% 8% 73% 251

    31% 10% 59% 749

    7% 5% 88% 410

    21% 17% 61% 180

    52% 11% 37% 410

    6% 6% 88% 231

    7% 5% 88% 179

    50% 14% 36% 164

    53% 8% 38% 246

    20% 17% 62% 85

    22% 17% 61% 95

    7% 8% 85% 227

    6% 2% 92% 183

    52% 10% 38% 254

    52% 12% 36% 156

    26% 16% 58% 102

    15% 18% 66% 78

    18-34

    35-44

    45-64

    65 or over

    Unsure / refused

    RAGE RESPONDENT'SAGE/C

    18-44

    45-64

    65 or over

    RAGEFLRESPONDENT'SAGE/C

    Male / under 55

    Male / 55+

    Female / under 55

    Female / 55+

    RR96FL AGE / SEX

    White

    Black / African American

    Hispanic / Latino

    Other

    RRACERESPONDENT'SRACE/C

    White men

    White women

    Black men

    Black women

    Hispanic men

    Hispanic women

    GENRACE RACE BYGENDER

    White seniors

    Other

    WHITE SENIORS

    Republican

    Independent

    Democrat

    RPARTYID PARTYIDENTIFICATION/C

    Male / GOP

    Female / GOP

    Male / DEM

    Female / DEM

    Male / IND

    Female / IND

    RPTYID89 SEX /PARTY ID

    Under 55 / GOP

    55 & over / GOP

    Under 55 / DEM

    55 & over / DEM

    Under 55 / IND

    55 & over / IND

    RPTY90FL AGE /PARTYIDENTIFICATION

    RDIRECT

    Rightdirection

    Unsure Wrong track

    RDIRECT DIRECTION THINGS INCOUNTRY ARE GOING/C

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 8

  • 10% 5% 85% 429

    16% 22% 62% 121

    48% 11% 41% 449

    6% 4% 90% 360

    17% 14% 69% 77

    22% 18% 60% 121

    24% 17% 59% 67

    54% 10% 36% 375

    11% 7% 82% 578

    33% 21% 46% 102

    56% 10% 33% 320

    8% 2% 90% 217

    13% 11% 76% 361

    51% 13% 36% 422

    7% 5% 88% 410

    21% 17% 61% 180

    37% 8% 55% 123

    59% 12% 30% 287

    6% 3% 90% 381

    49% 12% 38% 469

    100% 4

    17% 11% 72% 60

    11% 26% 63% 60

    25% 16% 59% 26

    16% 38% 46% 71

    17% 9% 73% 216

    32% 8% 60% 258

    32% 7% 61% 455

    33% 10% 57% 165

    27% 10% 64% 835

    35% 13% 52% 194

    24% 8% 68% 604

    31% 11% 57% 202

    30% 9% 61% 348

    27% 10% 63% 652

    25% 7% 68% 168

    35% 10% 55% 181

    Republican

    Ticket splitter

    Democrat

    RPARTY USUAL VOTEBEHAVIOR/C

    Hard GOP

    Soft GOP

    Ticket splitter

    Soft DEM

    Hard DEM

    PARTISAN PARTISAN

    Conservative

    Moderate

    Liberal

    RIDEOLRESPONDENT'SIDEOLOGY/C

    Very conservative

    Somewhat conservative

    Moderate / liberal

    RRIDEOLRESPONDENT'SIDEOLOGY/C

    Republican

    Independent

    Conservative DEM

    Mod / lib DEM

    RPTYID98 TARGETGROUPS

    John McCain

    Barack Obama

    Ralph Nader

    Other

    Refused

    Unsure

    PRES08 2008PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

    Less than high school

    High school graduate

    Some college

    College graduate

    REDUCRESPONDENT'SEDUCATION/C

    Union household

    Non-union household

    RUNION MEMBER OFLABOR UNION /TEACHERS' ASSN/C

    Single

    Married

    No longer married

    RMARITAL MARITALSTATUS/C

    Yes

    No

    RCHILD HAVECHILDREN LIVING ATHOME/C

    Dad

    Mom

    MOMDAD PARENTS

    RDIRECT

    Rightdirection

    Unsure Wrong track

    RDIRECT DIRECTION THINGS INCOUNTRY ARE GOING/C

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 9

  • 27% 9% 64% 279

    22% 7% 71% 325

    62% 10% 29% 24

    30% 12% 57% 67

    31% 4% 65% 37

    36% 15% 49% 157

    26% 11% 63% 111

    22% 8% 70% 178

    29% 8% 62% 162

    27% 6% 68% 162

    22% 14% 64% 204

    20% 15% 64% 86

    42% 9% 49% 207

    24% 7% 69% 407

    27% 9% 63% 162

    21% 15% 64% 113

    31% 13% 56% 43

    22% 6% 72% 102

    29% 7% 65% 71

    23% 1% 76% 101

    23% 14% 62% 126

    36% 64% 7

    30% 11% 58% 593

    22% 8% 71% 153

    25% 12% 63% 327

    27% 8% 65% 190

    34% 9% 57% 330

    16% 5% 79% 227

    42% 13% 45% 116

    7% 4% 89% 171

    25% 16% 59% 52

    43% 8% 49% 57

    57% 10% 33% 63

    Married / children

    Married / no children

    Divorced / children

    Divorced / no children

    Single / children

    Single / no children

    Other / mixed

    BUNDY MARITALSTATUS / CHILDREN

    Catholic

    Protestant

    Baptist

    Fundamentalist /PentecostalOther

    No affiliation

    RDENOMRESPONDENT'SRELIGION/C

    At least once a week

    At least once a month

    Infrequently

    Never

    RDENOMFR HOWOFTEN DO YOUATTEND CHURCH/C

    Active Catholic

    Active Protestant

    Active Baptist

    Active Fundamentalist /PentecostalActive Other

    Non-active

    CHRUCH2 RELIGIOUSFOCUS

    Male born again /evangelicalsMale not evangelical

    Female born again /evangelicalsFemale not evangelical

    SEXBORN GENDERAND BORN AGAIN

    White Evangelical

    Non-white Evangelical

    RACEVANG RACE /EVANGELICAL

    White conservativeChristiansNon-white conservativeChristiansWhite non-conservativeChristiansNon-whitenon-conservativeChristians

    IDEOVAN IDEOLOGY /EVANGELICALCHRISTIANS

    RDIRECT

    Rightdirection

    Unsure Wrong track

    RDIRECT DIRECTION THINGS INCOUNTRY ARE GOING/C

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 10

  • 5% 5% 90% 427

    22% 15% 63% 147

    53% 12% 35% 426

    42% 12% 46% 180

    20% 7% 74% 128

    18% 10% 72% 110

    14% 13% 73% 93

    16% 5% 79% 256

    33% 10% 58% 230

    31% 14% 55% 119

    33% 8% 58% 627

    49% 16% 35% 59

    15% 10% 76% 83

    21% 8% 70% 18

    67% 11% 22% 7

    15% 21% 63% 14

    63% 11% 27% 248

    28% 29% 43% 113

    14% 6% 80% 639

    46% 10% 44% 93

    3% 2% 94% 170

    71% 9% 20% 248

    11% 6% 82% 338

    12% 25% 63% 151

    58% 16% 27% 447

    13% 24% 63% 71

    2% 2% 95% 482

    59% 15% 26% 430

    34% 29% 37% 17

    4% 8% 88% 218

    1% 1% 97% 235

    8% 8% 83% 100

    4% 4% 91% 456

    13% 26% 61% 124

    58% 11% 31% 420

    4% 3% 93% 286

    10% 10% 79% 178

    46% 13% 41% 536

    Republican

    Undecided

    Democrat

    RGENERCG GENERICCONGRESSIONALBALLOT/C

    Wars in Iraq &AfghanistanIllegal immigration

    Taxes

    Terrorism & HS

    Gov't spending

    Health care reform

    Retirement & SS

    Economy & jobs

    Reforming Wall Street

    Combo / equally

    Other

    None

    Unsure

    CONGIS12 MOSTIMPORTANT ISSUE /COMBINED

    Approve

    Unsure

    Disapprove

    RCONGJACONGRESSIONAL JOBAPPROVAL/C

    Approve both

    Approve GOP only

    Approve DEM only

    Disapprove both

    Other

    CONJAPARCONGRESSIONAL JOBAPPROVAL BY PARTY

    Approve

    Unsure

    Disapprove

    RBHOJA BARACKOBAMA JOBAPPROVAL/C

    Consistent approve

    Approve job / drop-offpersonalApprove personal /drop-off jobConsistent disapprove

    Other

    DROP OBAMAAPPROVALCONSISTENCY

    GOP Candidate

    Undecided

    Obama

    RPRESBALPRESIDENTIALBALLOT/C

    GOP on 5-6 issues

    GOP on 3-4 issues

    GOP on 0-2 issues

    HANDCNTG GOPPREFERENCES ONISSUE HANDLING

    RDIRECT

    Rightdirection

    Unsure Wrong track

    RDIRECT DIRECTION THINGS INCOUNTRY ARE GOING/C

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 11

  • 68% 5% 27% 209

    44% 16% 40% 163

    10% 10% 80% 628

    62% 10% 29% 375

    23% 36% 41% 83

    5% 6% 89% 543

    31% 7% 62% 456

    27% 12% 61% 379

    23% 10% 67% 153

    19% 20% 61% 12

    29% 7% 64% 667

    22% 15% 63% 235

    32% 17% 52% 98

    35% 3% 63% 398

    33% 4% 63% 499

    32% 4% 63% 600

    30% 5% 64% 699

    28% 10% 62% 1000

    28% 10% 62% 1000

    DEM on 5-6 issues

    DEM on 3-4 issues

    DEM on 0-2 issues

    HANDCNTD DEMPREFERENCES ONISSUE HANDLING

    Agree

    Unsure

    Disagree

    RSTIMAD ECONOMICSTIMULUS ISWORKING/C

    Excellent / good

    Just fair

    Poor

    Unsure

    RPEREC RATEPERSONALECONOMICSITUATION/C

    Extremely likely

    Very likely

    Somewhat likely

    UPELECT LIKELIHOODOF VOTING INUPCOMING ELECTION

    Most likely 40%

    Most likely 50%

    Most likely 60%

    Most likely 70%

    100% of sample

    TURNOUT TURNOUTOF MOST LIKELYVOTERS

    TOTAL

    RDIRECT

    Rightdirection

    Unsure Wrong track

    RDIRECT DIRECTION THINGS INCOUNTRY ARE GOING/C

    TOTAL

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 12

  • 43% 15% 43% 1000

    38% 19% 43% 214

    40% 15% 45% 168

    44% 11% 45% 248

    56% 17% 27% 86

    52% 12% 36% 76

    58% 8% 34% 70

    31% 17% 51% 139

    33% 14% 53% 101

    52% 14% 33% 47

    57% 21% 23% 53

    35% 19% 47% 56

    43% 14% 43% 742

    50% 13% 38% 300

    40% 16% 45% 700

    49% 14% 37% 230

    46% 15% 39% 309

    38% 14% 48% 460

    48% 15% 37% 446

    39% 14% 47% 554

    41% 13% 47% 440

    43% 19% 38% 364

    47% 11% 42% 196

    49% 14% 38% 214

    44% 15% 40% 540

    34% 14% 52% 246

    51% 14% 36% 480

    35% 16% 49% 520

    52% 14% 35% 287

    49% 14% 37% 193

    33% 15% 53% 282

    39% 17% 45% 238

    30% 16% 53% 120

    42% 14% 44% 245

    40% 14% 46% 335

    51% 15% 33% 300

    TOTAL

    Northeast

    Midwest

    South

    South Central

    Central Plains

    Mountain States

    West

    RG1 GEOGRAPHICAREAS ONE

    California

    Florida

    Texas

    New York

    Rest of country

    RG2 GEOGRAPHICAREAS TWO

    McCain state

    Obama state

    ST2008 2008PRESIDENTIALWINNER

    2 GOP U.S. Senators

    Mixed U.S. Senatedelegation2 DEM U.S. Senators

    SENCNTRL U.S.SENATEREPRESENTATION

    GOP control

    DEM control

    PTYCNTRL PARTYCONTROL OF CD

    10%+ unemployment

    8%-9.9% unemployment

    Less than 8%unemployment

    RGEMPUNEMPLOYMENT BYSTATE

    Rural

    Suburban

    Urban

    URBAN URBAN CODE

    Male

    Female

    GENDER GENDER

    Male / employed

    Male / not employed

    Female / employed

    Female / not employed

    RSEXEMPRESPONDENT'S SEX /EMPLOYMENT/C

    18-29

    30-44

    45-59

    60 and older

    RAGEBG AGE/C

    RGENERCG

    Republican Undecided Democrat

    RGENERCG GENERICCONGRESSIONAL BALLOT/C

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 13

  • 34% 13% 54% 174

    42% 17% 41% 191

    42% 14% 45% 408

    52% 15% 33% 202

    52% 29% 19% 24

    38% 15% 47% 365

    42% 14% 45% 408

    52% 17% 31% 227

    47% 15% 38% 303

    56% 12% 32% 177

    32% 15% 54% 281

    40% 17% 43% 239

    51% 15% 34% 750

    3% 10% 87% 120

    32% 13% 54% 90

    31% 33% 37% 40

    56% 14% 30% 386

    46% 15% 39% 364

    7% 3% 91% 36

    1% 13% 85% 84

    48% 9% 43% 37

    22% 16% 62% 53

    56% 15% 29% 251

    38% 15% 47% 749

    87% 7% 6% 410

    29% 47% 24% 180

    4% 9% 87% 410

    87% 7% 6% 231

    87% 6% 7% 179

    5% 9% 87% 164

    4% 9% 87% 246

    40% 41% 18% 85

    19% 52% 29% 95

    86% 6% 8% 227

    88% 7% 5% 183

    3% 9% 88% 254

    6% 9% 85% 156

    27% 49% 23% 102

    31% 44% 25% 78

    18-34

    35-44

    45-64

    65 or over

    Unsure / refused

    RAGE RESPONDENT'SAGE/C

    18-44

    45-64

    65 or over

    RAGEFLRESPONDENT'SAGE/C

    Male / under 55

    Male / 55+

    Female / under 55

    Female / 55+

    RR96FL AGE / SEX

    White

    Black / African American

    Hispanic / Latino

    Other

    RRACERESPONDENT'SRACE/C

    White men

    White women

    Black men

    Black women

    Hispanic men

    Hispanic women

    GENRACE RACE BYGENDER

    White seniors

    Other

    WHITE SENIORS

    Republican

    Independent

    Democrat

    RPARTYID PARTYIDENTIFICATION/C

    Male / GOP

    Female / GOP

    Male / DEM

    Female / DEM

    Male / IND

    Female / IND

    RPTYID89 SEX /PARTY ID

    Under 55 / GOP

    55 & over / GOP

    Under 55 / DEM

    55 & over / DEM

    Under 55 / IND

    55 & over / IND

    RPTY90FL AGE /PARTYIDENTIFICATION

    RGENERCG

    Republican Undecided Democrat

    RGENERCG GENERICCONGRESSIONAL BALLOT/C

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 14

  • 82% 11% 8% 429

    31% 39% 30% 121

    9% 12% 79% 449

    91% 5% 4% 360

    47% 37% 15% 77

    28% 36% 36% 121

    19% 45% 36% 67

    4% 7% 89% 375

    64% 14% 22% 578

    21% 43% 36% 102

    11% 7% 82% 320

    79% 9% 12% 217

    55% 17% 28% 361

    13% 16% 71% 422

    87% 7% 6% 410

    29% 47% 24% 180

    9% 17% 74% 123

    2% 5% 92% 287

    85% 9% 6% 381

    11% 12% 77% 469

    59% 41% 4

    32% 33% 35% 60

    34% 42% 24% 60

    49% 34% 16% 26

    23% 24% 53% 71

    47% 14% 39% 216

    41% 12% 46% 258

    45% 15% 41% 455

    33% 19% 48% 165

    45% 14% 42% 835

    28% 14% 58% 194

    50% 14% 36% 604

    35% 18% 47% 202

    37% 13% 49% 348

    46% 15% 39% 652

    50% 11% 39% 168

    26% 15% 59% 181

    Republican

    Ticket splitter

    Democrat

    RPARTY USUAL VOTEBEHAVIOR/C

    Hard GOP

    Soft GOP

    Ticket splitter

    Soft DEM

    Hard DEM

    PARTISAN PARTISAN

    Conservative

    Moderate

    Liberal

    RIDEOLRESPONDENT'SIDEOLOGY/C

    Very conservative

    Somewhat conservative

    Moderate / liberal

    RRIDEOLRESPONDENT'SIDEOLOGY/C

    Republican

    Independent

    Conservative DEM

    Mod / lib DEM

    RPTYID98 TARGETGROUPS

    John McCain

    Barack Obama

    Ralph Nader

    Other

    Refused

    Unsure

    PRES08 2008PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

    Less than high school

    High school graduate

    Some college

    College graduate

    REDUCRESPONDENT'SEDUCATION/C

    Union household

    Non-union household

    RUNION MEMBER OFLABOR UNION /TEACHERS' ASSN/C

    Single

    Married

    No longer married

    RMARITAL MARITALSTATUS/C

    Yes

    No

    RCHILD HAVECHILDREN LIVING ATHOME/C

    Dad

    Mom

    MOMDAD PARENTS

    RGENERCG

    Republican Undecided Democrat

    RGENERCG GENERICCONGRESSIONAL BALLOT/C

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 15

  • 41% 14% 44% 279

    57% 13% 30% 325

    25% 8% 67% 24

    27% 21% 52% 67

    6% 12% 81% 37

    34% 14% 52% 157

    42% 19% 39% 111

    43% 14% 43% 178

    49% 16% 35% 162

    47% 9% 44% 162

    49% 10% 41% 204

    40% 32% 28% 86

    29% 16% 55% 207

    49% 14% 37% 407

    46% 8% 46% 162

    44% 12% 45% 113

    48% 13% 39% 43

    44% 16% 39% 102

    45% 24% 30% 71

    57% 8% 35% 101

    46% 11% 43% 126

    64% 36% 7

    39% 15% 46% 593

    59% 7% 34% 153

    46% 17% 37% 327

    42% 12% 46% 190

    32% 18% 50% 330

    66% 10% 24% 227

    16% 9% 74% 116

    79% 11% 10% 171

    31% 8% 61% 52

    29% 6% 65% 57

    4% 11% 85% 63

    Married / children

    Married / no children

    Divorced / children

    Divorced / no children

    Single / children

    Single / no children

    Other / mixed

    BUNDY MARITALSTATUS / CHILDREN

    Catholic

    Protestant

    Baptist

    Fundamentalist /PentecostalOther

    No affiliation

    RDENOMRESPONDENT'SRELIGION/C

    At least once a week

    At least once a month

    Infrequently

    Never

    RDENOMFR HOWOFTEN DO YOUATTEND CHURCH/C

    Active Catholic

    Active Protestant

    Active Baptist

    Active Fundamentalist /PentecostalActive Other

    Non-active

    CHRUCH2 RELIGIOUSFOCUS

    Male born again /evangelicalsMale not evangelical

    Female born again /evangelicalsFemale not evangelical

    SEXBORN GENDERAND BORN AGAIN

    White Evangelical

    Non-white Evangelical

    RACEVANG RACE /EVANGELICAL

    White conservativeChristiansNon-white conservativeChristiansWhite non-conservativeChristiansNon-whitenon-conservativeChristians

    IDEOVAN IDEOLOGY /EVANGELICALCHRISTIANS

    RGENERCG

    Republican Undecided Democrat

    RGENERCG GENERICCONGRESSIONAL BALLOT/C

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 16

  • 8% 11% 80% 279

    22% 23% 55% 97

    61% 15% 24% 624

    17% 18% 65% 180

    64% 12% 25% 128

    54% 8% 38% 110

    46% 25% 29% 93

    62% 12% 26% 256

    36% 12% 52% 230

    28% 12% 59% 119

    40% 14% 46% 627

    13% 14% 73% 59

    54% 25% 21% 83

    64% 20% 17% 18

    29% 11% 60% 7

    50% 11% 39% 14

    13% 11% 76% 248

    17% 26% 57% 113

    59% 14% 27% 639

    20% 25% 54% 93

    94% 4% 3% 170

    3% 6% 91% 248

    55% 21% 25% 338

    37% 22% 41% 151

    10% 13% 77% 447

    27% 29% 44% 71

    75% 15% 10% 482

    9% 13% 78% 430

    46% 54% 17

    52% 17% 31% 218

    87% 10% 3% 235

    63% 30% 7% 100

    84% 9% 7% 456

    19% 57% 24% 124

    5% 9% 86% 420

    91% 6% 4% 286

    56% 18% 25% 178

    13% 18% 69% 536

    Right direction

    Unsure

    Wrong track

    RDIRECT DIRECTIONTHINGS IN COUNTRYARE GOING/C

    Wars in Iraq &AfghanistanIllegal immigration

    Taxes

    Terrorism & HS

    Gov't spending

    Health care reform

    Retirement & SS

    Economy & jobs

    Reforming Wall Street

    Combo / equally

    Other

    None

    Unsure

    CONGIS12 MOSTIMPORTANT ISSUE /COMBINED

    Approve

    Unsure

    Disapprove

    RCONGJACONGRESSIONAL JOBAPPROVAL/C

    Approve both

    Approve GOP only

    Approve DEM only

    Disapprove both

    Other

    CONJAPARCONGRESSIONAL JOBAPPROVAL BY PARTY

    Approve

    Unsure

    Disapprove

    RBHOJA BARACKOBAMA JOBAPPROVAL/C

    Consistent approve

    Approve job / drop-offpersonalApprove personal /drop-off jobConsistent disapprove

    Other

    DROP OBAMAAPPROVALCONSISTENCY

    GOP Candidate

    Undecided

    Obama

    RPRESBALPRESIDENTIALBALLOT/C

    GOP on 5-6 issues

    GOP on 3-4 issues

    GOP on 0-2 issues

    HANDCNTG GOPPREFERENCES ONISSUE HANDLING

    RGENERCG

    Republican Undecided Democrat

    RGENERCG GENERICCONGRESSIONAL BALLOT/C

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 17

  • 2% 2% 96% 209

    8% 8% 84% 163

    65% 20% 14% 628

    13% 11% 77% 375

    22% 24% 54% 83

    67% 16% 17% 543

    47% 11% 42% 456

    44% 16% 41% 379

    30% 20% 51% 153

    28% 43% 29% 12

    46% 14% 40% 667

    42% 11% 46% 235

    22% 29% 49% 98

    51% 5% 44% 398

    51% 6% 43% 499

    50% 8% 42% 600

    49% 8% 42% 699

    43% 15% 43% 1000

    43% 15% 43% 1000

    DEM on 5-6 issues

    DEM on 3-4 issues

    DEM on 0-2 issues

    HANDCNTD DEMPREFERENCES ONISSUE HANDLING

    Agree

    Unsure

    Disagree

    RSTIMAD ECONOMICSTIMULUS ISWORKING/C

    Excellent / good

    Just fair

    Poor

    Unsure

    RPEREC RATEPERSONALECONOMICSITUATION/C

    Extremely likely

    Very likely

    Somewhat likely

    UPELECT LIKELIHOODOF VOTING INUPCOMING ELECTION

    Most likely 40%

    Most likely 50%

    Most likely 60%

    Most likely 70%

    100% of sample

    TURNOUT TURNOUTOF MOST LIKELYVOTERS

    TOTAL

    RGENERCG

    Republican Undecided Democrat

    RGENERCG GENERICCONGRESSIONAL BALLOT/C

    TOTAL

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 18

  • 45% 36% 19% 1000

    43% 37% 20% 214

    44% 45% 10% 168

    45% 34% 21% 248

    54% 28% 18% 86

    47% 29% 24% 76

    54% 26% 20% 70

    39% 39% 22% 139

    40% 44% 16% 101

    49% 38% 13% 47

    57% 28% 15% 53

    48% 36% 16% 56

    45% 35% 20% 742

    48% 30% 22% 300

    44% 38% 18% 700

    47% 28% 24% 230

    51% 35% 14% 309

    40% 40% 20% 460

    50% 32% 18% 446

    42% 39% 20% 554

    43% 40% 17% 440

    49% 32% 19% 364

    44% 32% 24% 196

    41% 34% 26% 214

    49% 33% 18% 540

    41% 43% 16% 246

    49% 35% 16% 480

    42% 37% 22% 520

    48% 37% 15% 287

    51% 31% 18% 193

    39% 40% 21% 282

    45% 33% 22% 238

    45% 46% 9% 120

    38% 41% 22% 245

    47% 37% 16% 335

    50% 26% 24% 300

    TOTAL

    Northeast

    Midwest

    South

    South Central

    Central Plains

    Mountain States

    West

    RG1 GEOGRAPHICAREAS ONE

    California

    Florida

    Texas

    New York

    Rest of country

    RG2 GEOGRAPHICAREAS TWO

    McCain state

    Obama state

    ST2008 2008PRESIDENTIALWINNER

    2 GOP U.S. Senators

    Mixed U.S. Senatedelegation2 DEM U.S. Senators

    SENCNTRL U.S.SENATEREPRESENTATION

    GOP control

    DEM control

    PTYCNTRL PARTYCONTROL OF CD

    10%+ unemployment

    8%-9.9% unemployment

    Less than 8%unemployment

    RGEMPUNEMPLOYMENT BYSTATE

    Rural

    Suburban

    Urban

    URBAN URBAN CODE

    Male

    Female

    GENDER GENDER

    Male / employed

    Male / not employed

    Female / employed

    Female / not employed

    RSEXEMPRESPONDENT'S SEX /EMPLOYMENT/C

    18-29

    30-44

    45-59

    60 and older

    RAGEBG AGE/C

    HSCON

    RepublicanParty

    DemocraticParty

    Unsure /refused

    HSCON WHO WILL BE MAJORITY INHOUSE

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 19

  • 43% 46% 11% 174

    38% 39% 23% 191

    45% 37% 18% 408

    54% 25% 22% 202

    50% 11% 39% 24

    40% 42% 18% 365

    45% 37% 18% 408

    53% 23% 24% 227

    46% 39% 15% 303

    54% 28% 18% 177

    41% 40% 19% 281

    43% 33% 24% 239

    50% 30% 20% 750

    18% 66% 16% 120

    47% 39% 14% 90

    36% 40% 24% 40

    53% 29% 18% 386

    46% 32% 22% 364

    4% 86% 9% 36

    24% 57% 19% 84

    55% 37% 7% 37

    41% 40% 18% 53

    54% 23% 23% 251

    42% 40% 18% 749

    73% 13% 15% 410

    41% 23% 36% 180

    20% 64% 16% 410

    74% 14% 12% 231

    71% 11% 18% 179

    20% 69% 11% 164

    19% 61% 19% 246

    38% 23% 38% 85

    43% 23% 34% 95

    69% 16% 14% 227

    77% 8% 16% 183

    19% 68% 13% 254

    21% 59% 20% 156

    48% 20% 32% 102

    31% 28% 41% 78

    18-34

    35-44

    45-64

    65 or over

    Unsure / refused

    RAGE RESPONDENT'SAGE/C

    18-44

    45-64

    65 or over

    RAGEFLRESPONDENT'SAGE/C

    Male / under 55

    Male / 55+

    Female / under 55

    Female / 55+

    RR96FL AGE / SEX

    White

    Black / African American

    Hispanic / Latino

    Other

    RRACERESPONDENT'SRACE/C

    White men

    White women

    Black men

    Black women

    Hispanic men

    Hispanic women

    GENRACE RACE BYGENDER

    White seniors

    Other

    WHITE SENIORS

    Republican

    Independent

    Democrat

    RPARTYID PARTYIDENTIFICATION/C

    Male / GOP

    Female / GOP

    Male / DEM

    Female / DEM

    Male / IND

    Female / IND

    RPTYID89 SEX /PARTY ID

    Under 55 / GOP

    55 & over / GOP

    Under 55 / DEM

    55 & over / DEM

    Under 55 / IND

    55 & over / IND

    RPTY90FL AGE /PARTYIDENTIFICATION

    HSCON

    RepublicanParty

    DemocraticParty

    Unsure /refused

    HSCON WHO WILL BE MAJORITY INHOUSE

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 20

  • 67% 16% 17% 429

    50% 19% 30% 121

    23% 59% 18% 449

    73% 12% 15% 360

    56% 22% 22% 77

    44% 27% 30% 121

    28% 31% 41% 67

    20% 65% 15% 375

    61% 23% 17% 578

    21% 41% 39% 102

    25% 57% 17% 320

    68% 15% 18% 217

    56% 28% 16% 361

    24% 53% 22% 422

    73% 13% 15% 410

    41% 23% 36% 180

    20% 63% 17% 123

    20% 65% 15% 287

    72% 13% 15% 381

    23% 58% 18% 469

    38% 62% 4

    59% 25% 15% 60

    43% 20% 36% 60

    27% 23% 50% 26

    30% 41% 29% 71

    50% 31% 19% 216

    42% 43% 15% 258

    47% 33% 20% 455

    30% 39% 31% 165

    48% 35% 17% 835

    37% 46% 17% 194

    49% 33% 18% 604

    41% 35% 23% 202

    38% 43% 19% 348

    49% 32% 19% 652

    43% 40% 17% 168

    33% 46% 20% 181

    Republican

    Ticket splitter

    Democrat

    RPARTY USUAL VOTEBEHAVIOR/C

    Hard GOP

    Soft GOP

    Ticket splitter

    Soft DEM

    Hard DEM

    PARTISAN PARTISAN

    Conservative

    Moderate

    Liberal

    RIDEOLRESPONDENT'SIDEOLOGY/C

    Very conservative

    Somewhat conservative

    Moderate / liberal

    RRIDEOLRESPONDENT'SIDEOLOGY/C

    Republican

    Independent

    Conservative DEM

    Mod / lib DEM

    RPTYID98 TARGETGROUPS

    John McCain

    Barack Obama

    Ralph Nader

    Other

    Refused

    Unsure

    PRES08 2008PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

    Less than high school

    High school graduate

    Some college

    College graduate

    REDUCRESPONDENT'SEDUCATION/C

    Union household

    Non-union household

    RUNION MEMBER OFLABOR UNION /TEACHERS' ASSN/C

    Single

    Married

    No longer married

    RMARITAL MARITALSTATUS/C

    Yes

    No

    RCHILD HAVECHILDREN LIVING ATHOME/C

    Dad

    Mom

    MOMDAD PARENTS

    HSCON

    RepublicanParty

    DemocraticParty

    Unsure /refused

    HSCON WHO WILL BE MAJORITY INHOUSE

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 21

  • 39% 43% 18% 279

    58% 24% 18% 325

    34% 36% 30% 24

    40% 47% 13% 67

    36% 54% 10% 37

    37% 44% 19% 157

    44% 28% 28% 111

    57% 31% 12% 178

    44% 35% 22% 162

    46% 36% 18% 162

    51% 34% 16% 204

    35% 31% 34% 86

    35% 45% 21% 207

    47% 37% 16% 407

    47% 36% 16% 162

    60% 25% 15% 113

    52% 19% 29% 43

    50% 34% 16% 102

    36% 44% 20% 71

    47% 40% 13% 101

    51% 32% 17% 126

    44% 36% 20% 7

    44% 35% 21% 593

    50% 39% 11% 153

    49% 33% 19% 327

    44% 37% 19% 190

    40% 37% 23% 330

    57% 27% 17% 227

    27% 59% 14% 116

    65% 18% 17% 171

    39% 46% 16% 52

    30% 53% 16% 57

    18% 70% 12% 63

    Married / children

    Married / no children

    Divorced / children

    Divorced / no children

    Single / children

    Single / no children

    Other / mixed

    BUNDY MARITALSTATUS / CHILDREN

    Catholic

    Protestant

    Baptist

    Fundamentalist /PentecostalOther

    No affiliation

    RDENOMRESPONDENT'SRELIGION/C

    At least once a week

    At least once a month

    Infrequently

    Never

    RDENOMFR HOWOFTEN DO YOUATTEND CHURCH/C

    Active Catholic

    Active Protestant

    Active Baptist

    Active Fundamentalist /PentecostalActive Other

    Non-active

    CHRUCH2 RELIGIOUSFOCUS

    Male born again /evangelicalsMale not evangelical

    Female born again /evangelicalsFemale not evangelical

    SEXBORN GENDERAND BORN AGAIN

    White Evangelical

    Non-white Evangelical

    RACEVANG RACE /EVANGELICAL

    White conservativeChristiansNon-white conservativeChristiansWhite non-conservativeChristiansNon-whitenon-conservativeChristians

    IDEOVAN IDEOLOGY /EVANGELICALCHRISTIANS

    HSCON

    RepublicanParty

    DemocraticParty

    Unsure /refused

    HSCON WHO WILL BE MAJORITY INHOUSE

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 22

  • 19% 62% 19% 279

    31% 39% 30% 97

    59% 23% 17% 624

    74% 11% 15% 427

    39% 25% 36% 147

    19% 65% 17% 426

    29% 51% 20% 180

    60% 25% 15% 128

    55% 31% 14% 110

    40% 38% 22% 93

    65% 18% 17% 256

    43% 41% 16% 230

    37% 40% 23% 119

    45% 40% 15% 627

    17% 67% 16% 59

    39% 22% 39% 83

    41% 45% 14% 18

    39% 28% 33% 7

    39% 22% 39% 14

    27% 58% 15% 248

    25% 43% 32% 113

    56% 26% 18% 639

    41% 46% 13% 93

    81% 8% 11% 170

    13% 66% 21% 248

    54% 27% 19% 338

    40% 31% 29% 151

    23% 59% 18% 447

    24% 42% 34% 71

    69% 13% 18% 482

    23% 60% 17% 430

    28% 25% 47% 17

    51% 31% 18% 218

    76% 9% 16% 235

    62% 6% 32% 100

    72% 14% 14% 456

    38% 17% 44% 124

    18% 65% 17% 420

    Right direction

    Unsure

    Wrong track

    RDIRECT DIRECTIONTHINGS IN COUNTRYARE GOING/C

    Republican

    Undecided

    Democrat

    RGENERCG GENERICCONGRESSIONALBALLOT/C

    Wars in Iraq &AfghanistanIllegal immigration

    Taxes

    Terrorism & HS

    Gov't spending

    Health care reform

    Retirement & SS

    Economy & jobs

    Reforming Wall Street

    Combo / equally

    Other

    None

    Unsure

    CONGIS12 MOSTIMPORTANT ISSUE /COMBINED

    Approve

    Unsure

    Disapprove

    RCONGJACONGRESSIONAL JOBAPPROVAL/C

    Approve both

    Approve GOP only

    Approve DEM only

    Disapprove both

    Other

    CONJAPARCONGRESSIONAL JOBAPPROVAL BY PARTY

    Approve

    Unsure

    Disapprove

    RBHOJA BARACKOBAMA JOBAPPROVAL/C

    Consistent approve

    Approve job / drop-offpersonalApprove personal /drop-off jobConsistent disapprove

    Other

    DROP OBAMAAPPROVALCONSISTENCY

    GOP Candidate

    Undecided

    Obama

    RPRESBALPRESIDENTIALBALLOT/C

    HSCON

    RepublicanParty

    DemocraticParty

    Unsure /refused

    HSCON WHO WILL BE MAJORITY INHOUSE

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 23

  • 78% 8% 14% 286

    62% 25% 13% 178

    22% 54% 24% 536

    10% 79% 11% 209

    26% 55% 20% 163

    62% 16% 21% 628

    20% 62% 18% 375

    26% 31% 43% 83

    66% 18% 16% 543

    45% 37% 18% 456

    49% 32% 18% 379

    39% 41% 20% 153

    20% 32% 47% 12

    47% 35% 18% 667

    43% 37% 20% 235

    35% 40% 25% 98

    50% 36% 14% 398

    51% 35% 15% 499

    49% 35% 16% 600

    49% 35% 17% 699

    45% 36% 19% 1000

    45% 36% 19% 1000

    GOP on 5-6 issues

    GOP on 3-4 issues

    GOP on 0-2 issues

    HANDCNTG GOPPREFERENCES ONISSUE HANDLING

    DEM on 5-6 issues

    DEM on 3-4 issues

    DEM on 0-2 issues

    HANDCNTD DEMPREFERENCES ONISSUE HANDLING

    Agree

    Unsure

    Disagree

    RSTIMAD ECONOMICSTIMULUS ISWORKING/C

    Excellent / good

    Just fair

    Poor

    Unsure

    RPEREC RATEPERSONALECONOMICSITUATION/C

    Extremely likely

    Very likely

    Somewhat likely

    UPELECT LIKELIHOODOF VOTING INUPCOMING ELECTION

    Most likely 40%

    Most likely 50%

    Most likely 60%

    Most likely 70%

    100% of sample

    TURNOUT TURNOUTOF MOST LIKELYVOTERS

    TOTAL

    HSCON

    RepublicanParty

    DemocraticParty

    Unsure /refused

    HSCON WHO WILL BE MAJORITY INHOUSE

    TOTAL

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 24

  • 46% 37% 17% 1000

    49% 34% 18% 214

    48% 42% 10% 168

    42% 40% 17% 248

    48% 33% 19% 86

    50% 30% 20% 76

    57% 26% 17% 70

    39% 40% 21% 139

    43% 38% 19% 101

    42% 46% 12% 47

    51% 30% 20% 53

    55% 34% 11% 56

    46% 37% 17% 742

    45% 36% 18% 300

    47% 37% 17% 700

    45% 38% 17% 230

    50% 33% 17% 309

    45% 38% 17% 460

    49% 32% 18% 446

    44% 40% 16% 554

    44% 40% 16% 440

    49% 33% 17% 364

    45% 35% 20% 196

    47% 34% 19% 214

    50% 32% 18% 540

    37% 49% 14% 246

    47% 37% 16% 480

    46% 36% 18% 520

    46% 42% 13% 287

    48% 31% 21% 193

    46% 39% 15% 282

    46% 33% 21% 238

    62% 31% 6% 120

    41% 43% 16% 245

    45% 41% 14% 335

    46% 29% 25% 300

    TOTAL

    Northeast

    Midwest

    South

    South Central

    Central Plains

    Mountain States

    West

    RG1 GEOGRAPHICAREAS ONE

    California

    Florida

    Texas

    New York

    Rest of country

    RG2 GEOGRAPHICAREAS TWO

    McCain state

    Obama state

    ST2008 2008PRESIDENTIALWINNER

    2 GOP U.S. Senators

    Mixed U.S. Senatedelegation2 DEM U.S. Senators

    SENCNTRL U.S.SENATEREPRESENTATION

    GOP control

    DEM control

    PTYCNTRL PARTYCONTROL OF CD

    10%+ unemployment

    8%-9.9% unemployment

    Less than 8%unemployment

    RGEMPUNEMPLOYMENT BYSTATE

    Rural

    Suburban

    Urban

    URBAN URBAN CODE

    Male

    Female

    GENDER GENDER

    Male / employed

    Male / not employed

    Female / employed

    Female / not employed

    RSEXEMPRESPONDENT'S SEX /EMPLOYMENT/C

    18-29

    30-44

    45-59

    60 and older

    RAGEBG AGE/C

    SENCON

    RepublicanParty

    DemocraticParty

    Unsure /refused

    SENCON WHO WILL BE MAJORITY INSENATE

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 25

  • 57% 36% 6% 174

    39% 41% 19% 191

    44% 40% 16% 408

    47% 28% 24% 202

    54% 18% 28% 24

    48% 39% 13% 365

    44% 40% 16% 408

    48% 27% 25% 227

    47% 39% 14% 303

    46% 34% 19% 177

    48% 38% 14% 281

    44% 34% 23% 239

    52% 30% 18% 750

    19% 71% 10% 120

    43% 41% 16% 90

    36% 42% 22% 40

    52% 32% 16% 386

    51% 29% 20% 364

    86% 14% 36

    27% 65% 9% 84

    45% 42% 12% 37

    41% 40% 19% 53

    50% 25% 25% 251

    45% 41% 14% 749

    71% 15% 14% 410

    37% 36% 27% 180

    26% 59% 15% 410

    68% 18% 14% 231

    75% 10% 15% 179

    24% 64% 12% 164

    27% 56% 17% 246

    32% 39% 29% 85

    41% 33% 26% 95

    71% 16% 12% 227

    71% 12% 16% 183

    29% 59% 12% 254

    20% 59% 20% 156

    41% 37% 22% 102

    31% 35% 35% 78

    18-34

    35-44

    45-64

    65 or over

    Unsure / refused

    RAGE RESPONDENT'SAGE/C

    18-44

    45-64

    65 or over

    RAGEFLRESPONDENT'SAGE/C

    Male / under 55

    Male / 55+

    Female / under 55

    Female / 55+

    RR96FL AGE / SEX

    White

    Black / African American

    Hispanic / Latino

    Other

    RRACERESPONDENT'SRACE/C

    White men

    White women

    Black men

    Black women

    Hispanic men

    Hispanic women

    GENRACE RACE BYGENDER

    White seniors

    Other

    WHITE SENIORS

    Republican

    Independent

    Democrat

    RPARTYID PARTYIDENTIFICATION/C

    Male / GOP

    Female / GOP

    Male / DEM

    Female / DEM

    Male / IND

    Female / IND

    RPTYID89 SEX /PARTY ID

    Under 55 / GOP

    55 & over / GOP

    Under 55 / DEM

    55 & over / DEM

    Under 55 / IND

    55 & over / IND

    RPTY90FL AGE /PARTYIDENTIFICATION

    SENCON

    RepublicanParty

    DemocraticParty

    Unsure /refused

    SENCON WHO WILL BE MAJORITY INSENATE

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 26

  • 66% 19% 15% 429

    43% 27% 30% 121

    28% 56% 16% 449

    71% 15% 14% 360

    52% 27% 21% 77

    43% 33% 24% 121

    30% 35% 36% 67

    25% 61% 14% 375

    59% 26% 15% 578

    27% 41% 32% 102

    29% 55% 16% 320

    65% 19% 16% 217

    55% 30% 14% 361

    29% 51% 20% 422

    71% 15% 14% 410

    37% 36% 27% 180

    29% 54% 17% 123

    24% 61% 15% 287

    70% 17% 14% 381

    26% 58% 16% 469

    59% 41% 4

    47% 24% 28% 60

    51% 20% 29% 60

    46% 21% 33% 26

    34% 46% 21% 71

    57% 28% 15% 216

    48% 37% 16% 258

    42% 39% 18% 455

    41% 41% 19% 165

    47% 36% 17% 835

    43% 44% 13% 194

    49% 34% 17% 604

    42% 39% 20% 202

    45% 38% 17% 348

    47% 36% 17% 652

    47% 37% 16% 168

    43% 40% 17% 181

    Republican

    Ticket splitter

    Democrat

    RPARTY USUAL VOTEBEHAVIOR/C

    Hard GOP

    Soft GOP

    Ticket splitter

    Soft DEM

    Hard DEM

    PARTISAN PARTISAN

    Conservative

    Moderate

    Liberal

    RIDEOLRESPONDENT'SIDEOLOGY/C

    Very conservative

    Somewhat conservative

    Moderate / liberal

    RRIDEOLRESPONDENT'SIDEOLOGY/C

    Republican

    Independent

    Conservative DEM

    Mod / lib DEM

    RPTYID98 TARGETGROUPS

    John McCain

    Barack Obama

    Ralph Nader

    Other

    Refused

    Unsure

    PRES08 2008PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

    Less than high school

    High school graduate

    Some college

    College graduate

    REDUCRESPONDENT'SEDUCATION/C

    Union household

    Non-union household

    RUNION MEMBER OFLABOR UNION /TEACHERS' ASSN/C

    Single

    Married

    No longer married

    RMARITAL MARITALSTATUS/C

    Yes

    No

    RCHILD HAVECHILDREN LIVING ATHOME/C

    Dad

    Mom

    MOMDAD PARENTS

    SENCON

    RepublicanParty

    DemocraticParty

    Unsure /refused

    SENCON WHO WILL BE MAJORITY INSENATE

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 27

  • 45% 39% 16% 279

    52% 29% 19% 325

    51% 17% 32% 24

    39% 47% 14% 67

    43% 48% 9% 37

    43% 43% 14% 157

    41% 38% 20% 111

    54% 31% 15% 178

    44% 40% 16% 162

    42% 39% 18% 162

    50% 33% 17% 204

    42% 33% 25% 86

    42% 42% 16% 207

    48% 36% 16% 407

    46% 37% 17% 162

    54% 33% 13% 113

    40% 28% 32% 43

    52% 30% 18% 102

    50% 37% 14% 71

    37% 47% 16% 101

    52% 33% 16% 126

    56% 36% 8% 7

    45% 37% 18% 593

    48% 40% 13% 153

    46% 36% 18% 327

    47% 36% 17% 190

    45% 36% 19% 330

    57% 27% 16% 227

    29% 59% 12% 116

    63% 20% 18% 171

    32% 52% 16% 52

    38% 50% 12% 57

    26% 65% 9% 63

    Married / children

    Married / no children

    Divorced / children

    Divorced / no children

    Single / children

    Single / no children

    Other / mixed

    BUNDY MARITALSTATUS / CHILDREN

    Catholic

    Protestant

    Baptist

    Fundamentalist /PentecostalOther

    No affiliation

    RDENOMRESPONDENT'SRELIGION/C

    At least once a week

    At least once a month

    Infrequently

    Never

    RDENOMFR HOWOFTEN DO YOUATTEND CHURCH/C

    Active Catholic

    Active Protestant

    Active Baptist

    Active Fundamentalist /PentecostalActive Other

    Non-active

    CHRUCH2 RELIGIOUSFOCUS

    Male born again /evangelicalsMale not evangelical

    Female born again /evangelicalsFemale not evangelical

    SEXBORN GENDERAND BORN AGAIN

    White Evangelical

    Non-white Evangelical

    RACEVANG RACE /EVANGELICAL

    White conservativeChristiansNon-white conservativeChristiansWhite non-conservativeChristiansNon-whitenon-conservativeChristians

    IDEOVAN IDEOLOGY /EVANGELICALCHRISTIANS

    SENCON

    RepublicanParty

    DemocraticParty

    Unsure /refused

    SENCON WHO WILL BE MAJORITY INSENATE

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 28

  • 23% 63% 15% 279

    31% 39% 31% 97

    59% 25% 16% 624

    71% 15% 14% 427

    33% 30% 36% 147

    26% 60% 14% 426

    37% 46% 16% 180

    58% 27% 15% 128

    55% 31% 14% 110

    55% 33% 11% 93

    52% 33% 16% 256

    47% 36% 17% 230

    38% 38% 24% 119

    45% 42% 14% 627

    33% 52% 15% 59

    47% 23% 30% 83

    35% 19% 45% 18

    7% 71% 21% 7

    39% 25% 35% 14

    27% 57% 16% 248

    34% 40% 26% 113

    56% 28% 16% 639

    42% 47% 11% 93

    75% 14% 10% 170

    17% 68% 14% 248

    57% 26% 18% 338

    40% 28% 31% 151

    27% 57% 16% 447

    34% 30% 36% 71

    66% 19% 15% 482

    26% 58% 16% 430

    46% 28% 26% 17

    50% 34% 16% 218

    75% 11% 14% 235

    57% 12% 31% 100

    69% 17% 13% 456

    34% 30% 36% 124

    25% 60% 16% 420

    Right direction

    Unsure

    Wrong track

    RDIRECT DIRECTIONTHINGS IN COUNTRYARE GOING/C

    Republican

    Undecided

    Democrat

    RGENERCG GENERICCONGRESSIONALBALLOT/C

    Wars in Iraq &AfghanistanIllegal immigration

    Taxes

    Terrorism & HS

    Gov't spending

    Health care reform

    Retirement & SS

    Economy & jobs

    Reforming Wall Street

    Combo / equally

    Other

    None

    Unsure

    CONGIS12 MOSTIMPORTANT ISSUE /COMBINED

    Approve

    Unsure

    Disapprove

    RCONGJACONGRESSIONAL JOBAPPROVAL/C

    Approve both

    Approve GOP only

    Approve DEM only

    Disapprove both

    Other

    CONJAPARCONGRESSIONAL JOBAPPROVAL BY PARTY

    Approve

    Unsure

    Disapprove

    RBHOJA BARACKOBAMA JOBAPPROVAL/C

    Consistent approve

    Approve job / drop-offpersonalApprove personal /drop-off jobConsistent disapprove

    Other

    DROP OBAMAAPPROVALCONSISTENCY

    GOP Candidate

    Undecided

    Obama

    RPRESBALPRESIDENTIALBALLOT/C

    SENCON

    RepublicanParty

    DemocraticParty

    Unsure /refused

    SENCON WHO WILL BE MAJORITY INSENATE

    TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 29

  • 77% 12% 11% 286

    58% 25% 17% 178

    26% 54% 20% 536

    13% 79% 8% 209

    39% 43% 18% 163

    59% 21% 20% 628

    24% 62% 13% 375

    27% 36% 38% 83

    64% 19% 17% 543

    45% 38% 17% 456

    49% 33% 18% 379

    46% 40% 15% 153

    16% 57% 27% 12

    47% 37% 16% 667

    44% 37% 19% 235

    46% 36% 17% 98

    46% 39% 14% 398

    47% 39% 14% 499

    46% 39% 15% 600

    47% 38% 15% 699

    46% 37% 17% 1000

    46% 37% 17% 1000

    GOP on 5-6 issues

    GOP on 3-4 issues

    GOP on 0-2 issues

    HANDCNTG GOPPREFERENCES ONISSUE HANDLING

    DEM on 5-6 issues

    DEM on 3-4 issues

    DEM on 0-2 issues

    HANDCNTD DEMPREFERENCES ONISSUE HANDLING

    Agree

    Unsure

    Disagree

    RSTIMAD ECONOMICSTIMULUS ISWORKING/C

    Excellent / good

    Just fair

    Poor

    Unsure

    RPEREC RATEPERSONALECONOMICSITUATION/C

    Extremely likely

    Very likely

    Somewhat likely

    UPELECT LIKELIHOODOF VOTING INUPCOMING ELECTION

    Most likely 40%

    Most likely 50%

    Most likely 60%

    Most likely 70%

    100% of sample

    TURNOUT TURNOUTOF MOST LIKELYVOTERS

    TOTAL

    SENCON

    RepublicanParty

    DemocraticParty

    Unsure /refused

    SENCON WHO WILL BE MAJORITY INSENATE

    TOTAL

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 30

  • 7% 4% 4% 3% 13% 8% 5% 46% 2%

    10% 5% 4% 3% 11% 9% 3% 48% 2%

    4% 3% 4% 5% 20% 7% 6% 40% 3%

    8% 2% 3% 2% 7% 10% 5% 48% 1%

    3% 9% 2% 2% 18% 6% 6% 47% 1%

    7% 4% 8% 4% 12% 6% 5% 43% 1%

    3% 6% 9% 6% 16% 8% 5% 39% 1%

    7% 7% 2% 2% 15% 5% 3% 50% 3%

    5% 7% 2% 2% 12% 7% 2% 53% 4%

    8% 8% 1% 4% 5% 3% 55%

    2% 12% 3% 3% 15% 3% 4% 49% 2%

    8% 4% 6% 3% 20% 13% 5% 35% 2%

    7% 4% 4% 4% 13% 8% 5% 45% 1%

    8% 5% 2% 3% 14% 9% 6% 40% 1%

    6% 4% 5% 4% 13% 7% 4% 49% 2%

    8% 5% 2% 3% 13% 7% 6% 45% 1%

    6% 3% 5% 2% 13% 6% 4% 50% 1%

    7% 5% 4% 4% 14% 9% 4% 44% 3%

    7% 3% 4% 4% 14% 7% 5% 47% 1%

    6% 5% 4% 3% 13% 9% 4% 45% 2%

    7% 4% 2% 3% 12% 7% 5% 49% 1%

    7% 5% 4% 3% 15% 9% 4% 43% 2%

    6% 4% 6% 4% 11% 8% 5% 46% 2%

    8% 6% 4% 5% 17% 9% 7% 30% 1%

    6% 3% 5% 3% 13% 7% 4% 50% 2%

    7% 5% 2% 3% 12% 8% 4% 50% 1%

    6% 4% 4% 3% 15% 7% 3% 46% 3%

    7% 5% 3% 4% 12% 9% 6% 46% 1%

    4% 4% 3% 3% 17% 6% 2% 51% 3%

    9% 4% 6% 2% 13% 9% 5% 39% 2%

    6% 4% 2% 3% 12% 11% 5% 51% 1%

    8% 5% 6% 5% 11% 6% 7% 41% 0%

    14% 2% 7% 7% 10% 14% 41% 2%

    5% 3% 4% 3% 15% 5% 5% 52% 1%

    5% 5% 2% 3% 14% 8% 3% 51% 2%

    8% 6% 4% 3% 12% 7% 7% 38% 2%

    TOTAL

    Northeast

    Midwest

    South

    South Central

    Central Plains

    Mountain States

    West

    RG1 GEOGRAPHICAREAS ONE

    California

    Florida

    Texas

    New York

    Rest of country

    RG2 GEOGRAPHICAREAS TWO

    McCain state

    Obama state

    ST2008 2008PRESIDENTIALWINNER

    2 GOP U.S. Senators

    Mixed U.S. Senatedelegation2 DEM U.S. Senators

    SENCNTRL U.S.SENATEREPRESENTATION

    GOP control

    DEM control

    PTYCNTRL PARTYCONTROL OF CD

    10%+ unemployment

    8%-9.9% unemployment

    Less than 8%unemployment

    RGEMPUNEMPLOYMENT BYSTATE

    Rural

    Suburban

    Urban

    URBAN URBAN CODE

    Male

    Female

    GENDER GENDER

    Male / employed

    Male / not employed

    Female / employed

    Female / not employed

    RSEXEMPRESPONDENT'S SEX /EMPLOYMENT/C

    18-29

    30-44

    45-59

    60 and older

    RAGEBG AGE/C

    CONGIS1Wars in Iraq

    &Afghanistan

    Illegalimmigration

    Taxes Terrorism &HS

    Gov'tspending

    Health carereform

    Retirement &SS

    Economy &jobs

    ReformingWall Street

    CONGIS1 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 31

  • 11% 2% 6% 7% 10% 13% 2% 42% 2%

    5% 3% 4% 2% 16% 3% 5% 54% 1%

    5% 6% 3% 3% 14% 8% 4% 49% 2%

    8% 4% 3% 2% 13% 7% 8% 39% 1%

    8% 9% 6% 3% 3% 14% 4% 27% 4%

    8% 3% 5% 4% 13% 8% 4% 48% 1%

    5% 6% 3% 3% 14% 8% 4% 49% 2%

    8% 5% 4% 2% 12% 8% 8% 38% 2%

    6% 3% 2% 3% 14% 8% 3% 49% 3%

    7% 5% 8% 2% 16% 6% 4% 41% 2%

    8% 3% 5% 4% 13% 8% 4% 51%

    6% 6% 2% 4% 10% 10% 8% 41% 2%

    6% 5% 4% 4% 15% 7% 4% 45% 2%

    13% 1% 2% 5% 13% 8% 56% 1%

    5% 1% 7% 5% 9% 9% 7% 48% 1%

    7% 7% 1% 5% 6% 6% 8% 39% 3%

    6% 4% 4% 3% 16% 6% 3% 45% 3%

    6% 5% 3% 4% 15% 8% 5% 44% 1%

    7% 5% 11% 15% 7% 50% 4%

    15% 2% 3% 12% 9% 58%

    4% 8% 8% 6% 65%

    5% 2% 12% 8% 10% 9% 7% 35% 1%

    8% 6% 4% 3% 14% 7% 6% 39% 2%

    6% 4% 4% 3% 13% 8% 4% 49% 2%

    4% 6% 5% 5% 23% 7% 3% 36% 0%

    6% 3% 5% 3% 10% 3% 4% 48% 1%

    10% 3% 2% 2% 5% 11% 6% 55% 3%

    6% 6% 5% 4% 25% 7% 3% 34% 0%

    2% 7% 4% 5% 21% 8% 4% 39% 1%

    8% 3% 3% 1% 4% 10% 4% 57% 6%

    11% 3% 1% 3% 6% 11% 8% 53% 1%

    4% 1% 3% 1% 10% 1% 2% 55% 2%

    7% 5% 7% 4% 10% 5% 6% 41% 0%

    5% 6% 4% 6% 25% 6% 3% 38%

    3% 6% 6% 3% 20% 9% 4% 35% 1%

    10% 2% 1% 2% 5% 12% 5% 56% 3%

    8% 5% 3% 3% 5% 8% 7% 53% 3%

    4% 1% 6% 2% 8% 62%

    9% 6% 4% 4% 13% 6% 9% 29% 3%

    18-34

    35-44

    45-64

    65 or over

    Unsure / refused

    RAGE RESPONDENT'SAGE/C

    18-44

    45-64

    65 or over

    RAGEFLRESPONDENT'SAGE/C

    Male / under 55

    Male / 55+

    Female / under 55

    Female / 55+

    RR96FL AGE / SEX

    White

    Black / African American

    Hispanic / Latino

    Other

    RRACERESPONDENT'SRACE/C

    White men

    White women

    Black men

    Black women

    Hispanic men

    Hispanic women

    GENRACE RACE BYGENDER

    White seniors

    Other

    WHITE SENIORS

    Republican

    Independent

    Democrat

    RPARTYID PARTYIDENTIFICATION/C

    Male / GOP

    Female / GOP

    Male / DEM

    Female / DEM

    Male / IND

    Female / IND

    RPTYID89 SEX /PARTY ID

    Under 55 / GOP

    55 & over / GOP

    Under 55 / DEM

    55 & over / DEM

    Under 55 / IND

    55 & over / IND

    RPTY90FL AGE /PARTYIDENTIFICATION

    CONGIS1Wars in Iraq

    &Afghanistan

    Illegalimmigration

    Taxes Terrorism &HS

    Gov'tspending

    Health carereform

    Retirement &SS

    Economy &jobs

    ReformingWall Street

    CONGIS1 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 32

  • 5% 6% 4% 5% 21% 6% 3% 41% 0%

    5% 4% 10% 2% 7% 4% 9% 38% 2%

    9% 3% 2% 2% 7% 11% 5% 53% 3%

    4% 7% 5% 5% 24% 6% 2% 37% 0%

    3% 5% 4% 4% 12% 4% 8% 53%

    5% 3% 8% 3% 7% 6% 6% 45% 2%

    12% 1% 2% 2% 13% 2% 8% 39% 2%

    9% 3% 2% 2% 5% 12% 5% 55% 3%

    5% 6% 5% 4% 19% 8% 3% 40% 1%

    4% 2% 3% 4% 8% 6% 4% 49% 1%

    10% 2% 2% 1% 5% 8% 7% 55% 4%

    4% 8% 5% 4% 21% 12% 2% 32% 0%

    6% 4% 5% 4% 17% 6% 4% 46% 1%

    9% 2% 2% 2% 6% 7% 6% 54% 3%

    4% 6% 5% 5% 23% 7% 3% 36% 0%

    6% 3% 5% 3% 10% 3% 4% 48% 1%

    9% 5% 3% 2% 7% 16% 6% 45% 1%

    10% 2% 1% 2% 4% 8% 6% 59% 4%

    4% 7% 5% 5% 22% 6% 4% 38% 0%

    8% 3% 2% 2% 7% 10% 6% 53% 3%

    38% 62%

    5% 5% 3% 1% 19% 9% 2% 51%

    14% 5% 14% 2% 1% 4% 2% 42% 2%

    7% 17% 13% 2% 11% 26%

    5% 2% 13% 1% 3% 11% 4% 39% 1%

    9% 6% 4% 6% 10% 9% 10% 39% 1%

    7% 5% 2% 4% 15% 11% 5% 44% 3%

    6% 4% 3% 2% 16% 5% 2% 51% 2%

    3% 7% 4% 2% 11% 6% 5% 50% 3%

    7% 4% 4% 4% 14% 8% 5% 45% 1%

    10% 4% 1% 2% 7% 12% 1% 55% 3%

    6% 4% 5% 4% 16% 7% 5% 45% 1%

    6% 5% 4% 3% 12% 7% 8% 41% 2%

    6% 2% 5% 5% 15% 6% 3% 52% 1%

    7% 5% 3% 3% 13% 9% 5% 43% 2%

    4% 1% 3% 4% 15% 5% 1% 56% 2%

    8% 3% 7% 6% 14% 7% 5% 48% 0%

    Republican

    Ticket splitter

    Democrat

    RPARTY USUAL VOTEBEHAVIOR/C

    Hard GOP

    Soft GOP

    Ticket splitter

    Soft DEM

    Hard DEM

    PARTISAN PARTISAN

    Conservative

    Moderate

    Liberal

    RIDEOLRESPONDENT'SIDEOLOGY/C

    Very conservative

    Somewhat conservative

    Moderate / liberal

    RRIDEOLRESPONDENT'SIDEOLOGY/C

    Republican

    Independent

    Conservative DEM

    Mod / lib DEM

    RPTYID98 TARGETGROUPS

    John McCain

    Barack Obama

    Ralph Nader

    Other

    Refused

    Unsure

    PRES08 2008PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

    Less than high school

    High school graduate

    Some college

    College graduate

    REDUCRESPONDENT'SEDUCATION/C

    Union household

    Non-union household

    RUNION MEMBER OFLABOR UNION /TEACHERS' ASSN/C

    Single

    Married

    No longer married

    RMARITAL MARITALSTATUS/C

    Yes

    No

    RCHILD HAVECHILDREN LIVING ATHOME/C

    Dad

    Mom

    MOMDAD PARENTS

    CONGIS1Wars in Iraq

    &Afghanistan

    Illegalimmigration

    Taxes Terrorism &HS

    Gov'tspending

    Health carereform

    Retirement &SS

    Economy &jobs

    ReformingWall Street

    CONGIS1 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 33

  • 6% 2% 6% 4% 17% 6% 4% 50% 1%

    6% 6% 3% 3% 15% 8% 5% 41% 2%

    6% 4% 11% 74%

    5% 2% 6% 5% 13% 6% 6% 44% 1%

    6% 9% 16% 59% 3%

    11% 5% 1% 1% 8% 11% 1% 54% 3%

    6% 8% 3% 2% 12% 9% 10% 33% 3%

    7% 4% 7% 2% 17% 8% 4% 46%

    8% 4% 1% 4% 14% 9% 5% 45% 1%

    5% 5% 2% 5% 12% 11% 8% 41% 2%

    6% 4% 4% 5% 18% 5% 5% 45% 1%

    11% 3% 0% 2% 6% 13% 7% 43% 1%

    6% 5% 6% 1% 9% 4% 2% 54% 5%

    7% 4% 3% 6% 15% 7% 4% 46% 1%

    8% 2% 2% 2% 15% 7% 7% 47%

    4% 6% 8% 1% 16% 10% 6% 43% 1%

    2% 9% 5% 10% 22% 10% 21% 2%

    10% 2% 4% 3% 17% 8% 2% 48%

    8% 1% 1% 8% 11% 6% 5% 50%

    3% 7% 2% 6% 17% 10% 3% 40% 2%

    7% 4% 4% 5% 15% 3% 4% 49% 1%

    20% 15% 8% 36%

    7% 5% 4% 2% 12% 9% 5% 46% 2%

    6% 3% 3% 3% 21% 5% 3% 46% 2%

    7% 4% 5% 3% 12% 8% 3% 46% 3%

    8% 5% 1% 6% 10% 10% 7% 44% 1%

    7% 4% 5% 2% 13% 8% 5% 48% 1%

    4% 6% 2% 5% 20% 5% 5% 42% 1%

    12% 2% 1% 4% 5% 13% 7% 50% 2%

    2% 7% 2% 6% 26% 3% 4% 39% 1%

    6% 1% 3% 1% 7% 23% 6% 44% 4%

    10% 2% 1% 3% 2% 10% 7% 51% 2%

    17% 2% 7% 4% 5% 8% 54% 1%

    Married / children

    Married / no children

    Divorced / children

    Divorced / no children

    Single / children

    Single / no children

    Other / mixed

    BUNDY MARITALSTATUS / CHILDREN

    Catholic

    Protestant

    Baptist

    Fundamentalist /PentecostalOther

    No affiliation

    RDENOMRESPONDENT'SRELIGION/C

    At least once a week

    At least once a month

    Infrequently

    Never

    RDENOMFR HOWOFTEN DO YOUATTEND CHURCH/C

    Active Catholic

    Active Protestant

    Active Baptist

    Active Fundamentalist /PentecostalActive Other

    Non-active

    CHRUCH2 RELIGIOUSFOCUS

    Male born again /evangelicalsMale not evangelical

    Female born again /evangelicalsFemale not evangelical

    SEXBORN GENDERAND BORN AGAIN

    White Evangelical

    Non-white Evangelical

    RACEVANG RACE /EVANGELICAL

    White conservativeChristiansNon-white conservativeChristiansWhite non-conservativeChristiansNon-whitenon-conservativeChristians

    IDEOVAN IDEOLOGY /EVANGELICALCHRISTIANS

    CONGIS1Wars in Iraq

    &Afghanistan

    Illegalimmigration

    Taxes Terrorism &HS

    Gov'tspending

    Health carereform

    Retirement &SS

    Economy &jobs

    ReformingWall Street

    CONGIS1 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 34

  • 12% 4% 2% 2% 6% 8% 5% 55% 3%

    11% 3% 8% 2% 3% 3% 12% 41% 5%

    4% 5% 4% 4% 18% 9% 3% 43% 1%

    4% 6% 5% 5% 22% 7% 3% 37%

    7% 4% 1% 5% 9% 5% 3% 50% 2%

    10% 2% 3% 2% 6% 10% 7% 53% 3%

    37% 2% 1% 2% 8% 5% 1% 41% 1%

    7% 34% 3% 2% 11% 9% 2% 32% 1%

    1% 5% 34% 0% 11% 5% 4% 38%

    2% 4% 4% 35% 8% 6% 6% 36%

    2% 2% 1% 2% 52% 2% 3% 35% 0%

    5% 4% 3% 1% 9% 34% 2% 40% 1%

    2% 1% 1% 0% 11% 9% 39% 35% 1%

    4% 2% 2% 2% 7% 4% 2% 73% 2%

    6% 5% 2% 2% 8% 51% 28%

    4% 1% 1% 2% 4% 10%

    15% 9% 3% 8% 3%

    15% 7% 41%

    7% 8% 4% 4% 10% 17%

    12% 2% 3% 3% 4% 11% 6% 51% 2%

    9% 2% 8% 4% 8% 9% 9% 43% 0%

    4% 5% 3% 3% 18% 6% 3% 44% 2%

    16% 2% 1% 4% 4% 14% 7% 49%

    3% 6% 6% 3% 17% 11% 3% 42% 0%

    8% 2% 2% 1% 4% 8% 5% 58% 4%

    6% 5% 4% 4% 20% 5% 3% 43% 1%

    5% 5% 5% 6% 15% 9% 7% 37% 0%

    10% 3% 4% 2% 4% 10% 6% 53% 3%

    13% 2% 1% 2% 11% 7% 5% 43% 1%

    3% 6% 4% 4% 22% 6% 3% 40% 1%

    10% 2% 4% 2% 4% 10% 6% 54% 3%

    6% 6% 7% 11% 6% 13% 31%

    5% 4% 3% 4% 22% 4% 3% 47% 1%

    3% 9% 5% 6% 17% 8% 4% 37%

    4% 3% 2% 1% 27% 3% 3% 34% 1%

    4% 6% 6% 5% 23% 6% 3% 37% 0%

    5% 3% 6% 1% 8% 3% 3% 51% 0%

    10% 2% 1% 3% 5% 11% 7% 54% 3%

    Right direction

    Unsure

    Wrong track

    RDIRECT DIRECTIONTHINGS IN COUNTRYARE GOING/C

    Republican

    Undecided

    Democrat

    RGENERCG GENERICCONGRESSIONALBALLOT/C

    Wars in Iraq &AfghanistanIllegal immigration

    Taxes

    Terrorism & HS

    Gov't spending

    Health care reform

    Retirement & SS

    Economy & jobs

    Reforming Wall Street

    Combo / equally

    Other

    None

    Unsure

    CONGIS12 MOSTIMPORTANT ISSUE /COMBINED

    Approve

    Unsure

    Disapprove

    RCONGJACONGRESSIONAL JOBAPPROVAL/C

    Approve both

    Approve GOP only

    Approve DEM only

    Disapprove both

    Other

    CONJAPARCONGRESSIONAL JOBAPPROVAL BY PARTY

    Approve

    Unsure

    Disapprove

    RBHOJA BARACKOBAMA JOBAPPROVAL/C

    Consistent approve

    Approve job / drop-offpersonalApprove personal /drop-off jobConsistent disapprove

    Other

    DROP OBAMAAPPROVALCONSISTENCY

    GOP Candidate

    Undecided

    Obama

    RPRESBALPRESIDENTIALBALLOT/C

    CONGIS1Wars in Iraq

    &Afghanistan

    Illegalimmigration

    Taxes Terrorism &HS

    Gov'tspending

    Health carereform

    Retirement &SS

    Economy &jobs

    ReformingWall Street

    CONGIS1 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 35

  • 4% 8% 7% 5% 20% 8% 3% 39%

    4% 4% 1% 3% 22% 8% 3% 41% 1%

    9% 3% 3% 3% 7% 8% 6% 51% 3%

    12% 3% 4% 4% 4% 10% 6% 54% 2%

    8% 3% 4% 1% 6% 12% 5% 52% 4%

    5% 5% 4% 4% 18% 6% 4% 42% 1%

    10% 3% 2% 3% 3% 8% 6% 58% 3%

    13% 3% 7% 2% 14% 6% 6% 31% 3%

    4% 6% 4% 4% 20% 8% 4% 40% 1%

    6% 5% 3% 4% 15% 7% 3% 49% 1%

    9% 4% 6% 2% 12% 8% 5% 43% 1%

    4% 2% 2% 3% 9% 10% 6% 47% 3%

    19% 12% 11% 35% 4%

    6% 5% 3% 4% 14% 9% 4% 47% 2%

    8% 5% 7% 3% 13% 6% 6% 39% 2%

    11% 1% 3% 4% 11% 8% 5% 56%

    5% 4% 3% 2% 16% 8% 3% 50% 2%

    4% 5% 3% 2% 15% 8% 3% 50% 2%

    5% 5% 4% 3% 14% 8% 4% 48% 2%

    5% 5% 4% 3% 15% 8% 5% 47% 2%

    7% 4% 4% 3% 13% 8% 5% 46% 2%

    7% 4% 4% 3% 13% 8% 5% 46% 2%

    GOP on 5-6 issues

    GOP on 3-4 issues

    GOP on 0-2 issues

    HANDCNTG GOPPREFERENCES ONISSUE HANDLING

    DEM on 5-6 issues

    DEM on 3-4 issues

    DEM on 0-2 issues

    HANDCNTD DEMPREFERENCES ONISSUE HANDLING

    Agree

    Unsure

    Disagree

    RSTIMAD ECONOMICSTIMULUS ISWORKING/C

    Excellent / good

    Just fair

    Poor

    Unsure

    RPEREC RATEPERSONALECONOMICSITUATION/C

    Extremely likely

    Very likely

    Somewhat likely

    UPELECT LIKELIHOODOF VOTING INUPCOMING ELECTION

    Most likely 40%

    Most likely 50%

    Most likely 60%

    Most likely 70%

    100% of sample

    TURNOUT TURNOUTOF MOST LIKELYVOTERS

    TOTAL

    CONGIS1Wars in Iraq

    &Afghanistan

    Illegalimmigration

    Taxes Terrorism &HS

    Gov'tspending

    Health carereform

    Retirement &SS

    Economy &jobs

    ReformingWall Street

    CONGIS1 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 36

  • 7% 1% 0% 1% 1000

    4% 0% 0% 214

    5% 1% 1% 1% 168

    11% 2% 0% 248

    5% 2% 86

    10% 1% 76

    6% 1% 70

    3% 1% 3% 139

    2% 1% 4% 101

    12% 2% 47

    7% 53

    4% 56

    7% 1% 0% 0% 742

    10% 1% 0% 0% 300

    5% 1% 0% 1% 700

    9% 1% 0% 0% 230

    7% 2% 0% 1% 309

    5% 0% 0% 1% 460

    7% 1% 0% 0% 446

    6% 1% 0% 1% 554

    7% 2% 0% 1% 440

    6% 0% 0% 364

    7% 1% 0% 196

    11% 1% 0% 1% 214

    6% 0% 0% 0% 540

    4% 2% 1% 1% 246

    7% 2% 0% 0% 480

    6% 0% 0% 1% 520

    4% 2% 1% 287

    11% 1% 0% 193

    5% 0% 282

    8% 0% 0% 2% 238

    2% 120

    6% 2% 1% 245

    5% 1% 1% 0% 335

    10% 1% 0% 1% 300

    TOTAL

    Northeast

    Midwest

    South

    South Central

    Central Plains

    Mountain States

    West

    RG1 GEOGRAPHICAREAS ONE

    California

    Florida

    Texas

    New York

    Rest of country

    RG2 GEOGRAPHICAREAS TWO

    McCain state

    Obama state

    ST2008 2008PRESIDENTIALWINNER

    2 GOP U.S. Senators

    Mixed U.S. Senatedelegation2 DEM U.S. Senators

    SENCNTRL U.S.SENATEREPRESENTATION

    GOP control

    DEM control

    PTYCNTRL PARTYCONTROL OF CD

    10%+ unemployment

    8%-9.9% unemployment

    Less than 8%unemployment

    RGEMPUNEMPLOYMENT BYSTATE

    Rural

    Suburban

    Urban

    URBAN URBAN CODE

    Male

    Female

    GENDER GENDER

    Male / employed

    Male / not employed

    Female / employed

    Female / not employed

    RSEXEMPRESPONDENT'S SEX /EMPLOYMENT/C

    18-29

    30-44

    45-59

    60 and older

    RAGEBG AGE/C

    CONGIS1Combo /equally

    Other None UnsureCONGIS1 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 37

  • 4% 174

    5% 2% 1% 191

    5% 1% 1% 0% 408

    11% 1% 0% 2% 202

    21% 24

    5% 1% 1% 365

    5% 1% 1% 0% 408

    12% 1% 0% 2% 227

    6% 2% 0% 1% 303

    7% 1% 177

    3% 0% 0% 281

    10% 0% 0% 2% 239

    7% 1% 0% 1% 750

    1% 120

    7% 2% 1% 90

    15% 3% 40

    7% 2% 1% 386

    7% 0% 0% 1% 364

    36

    1% 84

    3% 5% 37

    9% 2% 53

    10% 1% 0% 1% 251

    5% 1% 0% 1% 749

    8% 1% 0% 1% 410

    13% 2% 0% 2% 180

    3% 0% 0% 0% 410

    7% 1% 231

    8% 0% 2% 179

    3% 1% 164

    3% 0% 1% 0% 246

    13% 5% 1% 3% 85

    13% 1% 95

    5% 1% 0% 227

    11% 1% 0% 1% 183

    2% 0% 1% 254

    4% 1% 0% 156

    11% 4% 1% 2% 102

    14% 1% 78

    18-34

    35-44

    45-64

    65 or over

    Unsure / refused

    RAGE RESPONDENT'SAGE/C

    18-44

    45-64

    65 or over

    RAGEFLRESPONDENT'SAGE/C

    Male / under 55

    Male / 55+

    Female / under 55

    Female / 55+

    RR96FL AGE / SEX

    White

    Black / African American

    Hispanic / Latino

    Other

    RRACERESPONDENT'SRACE/C

    White men

    White women

    Black men

    Black women

    Hispanic men

    Hispanic women

    GENRACE RACE BYGENDER

    White seniors

    Other

    WHITE SENIORS

    Republican

    Independent

    Democrat

    RPARTYID PARTYIDENTIFICATION/C

    Male / GOP

    Female / GOP

    Male / DEM

    Female / DEM

    Male / IND

    Female / IND

    RPTYID89 SEX /PARTY ID

    Under 55 / GOP

    55 & over / GOP

    Under 55 / DEM

    55 & over / DEM

    Under 55 / IND

    55 & over / IND

    RPTY90FL AGE /PARTYIDENTIFICATION

    CONGIS1Combo /equally

    Other None UnsureCONGIS1 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 38

  • 7% 1% 0% 1% 429

    15% 0% 2% 121

    4% 1% 0% 0% 449

    8% 1% 0% 1% 360

    7% 1% 77

    12% 2% 121

    10% 6% 1% 2% 67

    3% 1% 0% 0% 375

    6% 1% 0% 1% 578

    15% 3% 1% 1% 102

    4% 0% 0% 320

    9% 2% 0% 1% 217

    5% 0% 1% 361

    7% 1% 1% 0% 422

    8% 1% 0% 1% 410

    13% 2% 0% 2% 180

    5% 0% 0% 123

    2% 1% 0% 287

    8% 1% 0% 1% 381

    4% 1% 0% 1% 469

    4

    4% 1% 60

    15% 60

    21% 3% 26

    19% 2% 71

    5% 0% 1% 216

    5% 1% 0% 258

    6% 1% 0% 1% 455

    8% 1% 0% 165

    6% 1% 0% 1% 835

    3% 0% 1% 194

    6% 1% 0% 0% 604

    11% 1% 202

    3% 1% 0% 0% 348

    8% 1% 0% 1% 652

    6% 2% 0% 168

    1% 0% 1% 181

    Republican

    Ticket splitter

    Democrat

    RPARTY USUAL VOTEBEHAVIOR/C

    Hard GOP

    Soft GOP

    Ticket splitter

    Soft DEM

    Hard DEM

    PARTISAN PARTISAN

    Conservative

    Moderate

    Liberal

    RIDEOLRESPONDENT'SIDEOLOGY/C

    Very conservative

    Somewhat conservative

    Moderate / liberal

    RRIDEOLRESPONDENT'SIDEOLOGY/C

    Republican

    Independent

    Conservative DEM

    Mod / lib DEM

    RPTYID98 TARGETGROUPS

    John McCain

    Barack Obama

    Ralph Nader

    Other

    Refused

    Unsure

    PRES08 2008PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

    Less than high school

    High school graduate

    Some college

    College graduate

    REDUCRESPONDENT'SEDUCATION/C

    Union household

    Non-union household

    RUNION MEMBER OFLABOR UNION /TEACHERS' ASSN/C

    Single

    Married

    No longer married

    RMARITAL MARITALSTATUS/C

    Yes

    No

    RCHILD HAVECHILDREN LIVING ATHOME/C

    Dad

    Mom

    MOMDAD PARENTS

    CONGIS1Combo /equally

    Other None UnsureCONGIS1 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 39

  • 2% 1% 0% 0% 279

    10% 2% 0% 0% 325

    6% 24

    11% 2% 67

    6% 37

    2% 1% 2% 157

    13% 1% 111

    4% 2% 178

    7% 1% 0% 1% 162

    8% 1% 162

    6% 0% 1% 204

    14% 86

    4% 1% 1% 1% 207

    6% 1% 0% 0% 407

    7% 0% 1% 162

    4% 113

    12% 2% 4% 43

    3% 3% 102

    7% 1% 1% 1% 71

    7% 2% 101

    7% 1% 126

    21% 7

    7% 1% 0% 1% 593

    6% 2% 153

    7% 2% 0% 1% 327

    7% 0% 1% 190

    6% 0% 0% 1% 330

    8% 1% 0% 1% 227

    3% 116

    7% 2% 0% 1% 171

    5% 52

    11% 1% 57

    2% 63

    Married / children

    Married / no children

    Divorced / children

    Divorced / no children

    Single / children

    Single / no children

    Other / mixed

    BUNDY MARITALSTATUS / CHILDREN

    Catholic

    Protestant

    Baptist

    Fundamentalist /PentecostalOther

    No affiliation

    RDENOMRESPONDENT'SRELIGION/C

    At least once a week

    At least once a month

    Infrequently

    Never

    RDENOMFR HOWOFTEN DO YOUATTEND CHURCH/C

    Active Catholic

    Active Protestant

    Active Baptist

    Active Fundamentalist /PentecostalActive Other

    Non-active

    CHRUCH2 RELIGIOUSFOCUS

    Male born again /evangelicalsMale not evangelical

    Female born again /evangelicalsFemale not evangelical

    SEXBORN GENDERAND BORN AGAIN

    White Evangelical

    Non-white Evangelical

    RACEVANG RACE /EVANGELICAL

    White conservativeChristiansNon-white conservativeChristiansWhite non-conservativeChristiansNon-whitenon-conservativeChristians

    IDEOVAN IDEOLOGY /EVANGELICALCHRISTIANS

    CONGIS1Combo /equally

    Other None UnsureCONGIS1 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 40

  • 4% 1% 0% 0% 279

    8% 2% 1% 2% 97

    8% 1% 0% 1% 624

    8% 1% 0% 1% 427

    11% 2% 1% 147

    3% 0% 0% 1% 426

    180

    0% 128

    110

    93

    256

    230

    1% 119

    1% 627

    59

    79% 1% 83

    62% 18

    37% 7

    51% 14

    3% 1% 0% 0% 248

    7% 0% 1% 0% 113

    8% 1% 0% 1% 639

    2% 1% 93

    8% 0% 0% 0% 170

    4% 1% 1% 1% 248

    8% 1% 0% 1% 338

    9% 0% 1% 151

    3% 1% 0% 0% 447

    12% 3% 1% 71

    9% 1% 0% 1% 482

    2% 1% 1% 0% 430

    18% 3% 17

    5% 1% 1% 218

    9% 1% 1% 235

    21% 1% 100

    8% 1% 1% 456

    14% 2% 1% 2% 124

    2% 1% 0% 0% 420

    Right direction

    Unsure

    Wrong track

    RDIRECT DIRECTIONTHINGS IN COUNTRYARE GOING/C

    Republican

    Undecided

    Democrat

    RGENERCG GENERICCONGRESSIONALBALLOT/C

    Wars in Iraq &AfghanistanIllegal immigration

    Taxes

    Terrorism & HS

    Gov't spending

    Health care reform

    Retirement & SS

    Economy & jobs

    Reforming Wall Street

    Combo / equally

    Other

    None

    Unsure

    CONGIS12 MOSTIMPORTANT ISSUE /COMBINED

    Approve

    Unsure

    Disapprove

    RCONGJACONGRESSIONAL JOBAPPROVAL/C

    Approve both

    Approve GOP only

    Approve DEM only

    Disapprove both

    Other

    CONJAPARCONGRESSIONAL JOBAPPROVAL BY PARTY

    Approve

    Unsure

    Disapprove

    RBHOJA BARACKOBAMA JOBAPPROVAL/C

    Consistent approve

    Approve job / drop-offpersonalApprove personal /drop-off jobConsistent disapprove

    Other

    DROP OBAMAAPPROVALCONSISTENCY

    GOP Candidate

    Undecided

    Obama

    RPRESBALPRESIDENTIALBALLOT/C

    CONGIS1Combo /equally

    Other None UnsureCONGIS1 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE TOTAL

    (cont.)

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 41

  • 6% 1% 1% 286

    8% 1% 2% 178

    6% 1% 1% 0% 536

    1% 0% 0% 209

    4% 1% 163

    9% 1% 0% 1% 628

    3% 1% 0% 1% 375

    15% 1% 83

    8% 1% 0% 0% 543

    3% 1% 0% 1% 456

    8% 1% 0% 1% 379

    12% 0% 153

    15% 4% 12

    6% 1% 0% 1% 667

    10% 2% 1% 1% 235

    2% 98

    6% 0% 0% 0% 398

    6% 1% 0% 0% 499

    6% 1% 0% 1% 600

    6% 1% 0% 0% 699

    7% 1% 0% 1% 1000

    7% 1% 0% 1% 1000

    GOP on 5-6 issues

    GOP on 3-4 issues

    GOP on 0-2 issues

    HANDCNTG GOPPREFERENCES ONISSUE HANDLING

    DEM on 5-6 issues

    DEM on 3-4 issues

    DEM on 0-2 issues

    HANDCNTD DEMPREFERENCES ONISSUE HANDLING

    Agree

    Unsure

    Disagree

    RSTIMAD ECONOMICSTIMULUS ISWORKING/C

    Excellent / good

    Just fair

    Poor

    Unsure

    RPEREC RATEPERSONALECONOMICSITUATION/C

    Extremely likely

    Very likely

    Somewhat likely

    UPELECT LIKELIHOODOF VOTING INUPCOMING ELECTION

    Most likely 40%

    Most likely 50%

    Most likely 60%

    Most likely 70%

    100% of sample

    TURNOUT TURNOUTOF MOST LIKELYVOTERS

    TOTAL

    CONGIS1Combo /equally

    Other None UnsureCONGIS1 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE TOTAL

    THE TARRANCE GROUP, INC. / LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERSPOLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll #12676: Weighted TablesSeptember 7-9, 2010 ~ N=1000 likely voters ~ MOE +/- 3.1%

    Page 42

  • 12% 9% 8% 7% 13% 16% 8% 18% 5%

    11% 7% 11% 11% 10% 11% 6% 22% 6%

    15% 6% 10% 6% 11% 11% 8% 22% 4%

    9% 10% 6% 8% 18% 18% 9% 13% 5%

    14% 13% 4% 5% 13% 15% 12% 16% 6%

    11% 9% 8% 3% 14% 12% 11% 26% 2%

    8% 11% 9% 14% 25% 6% 15% 7%

    17% 10% 3% 4% 13% 26% 5% 15% 4%

    19% 7% 3% 4% 12% 29% 5% 16% 3%

    11% 14% 5% 19% 11% 13% 1% 22% 4%

    5% 14% 4% 8% 15% 14% 15% 14% 9%

    10% 5% 5% 8% 10% 9% 6% 30% 10%

    12% 9% 9% 6% 14% 16% 8% 17% 4%

    8% 12% 7% 5% 15% 17% 12% 16% 4%

    14% 8% 8% 7% 13% 16% 6% 19% 5%

    8% 9% 8% 6% 18% 17% 10% 15% 5%

    11% 10% 11% 7% 13% 11% 8% 18% 4%

    15% 8% 6% 6% 11% 20% 6% 20% 5%

    12% 10% 8% 7% 14% 15% 10% 15% 5%

    13% 8% 8% 6% 13% 17% 6% 20% 4%

    15% 7% 8% 7% 16% 17% 8% 15% 3%

    9% 10% 8% 8% 12% 12% 8% 22% 6%

    14% 12% 7% 4% 10% 24% 7% 17% 5%

    10% 11% 7% 5% 17% 11% 9% 21% 3%

    12% 9% 9% 6% 12% 19% 7% 17% 5%

    14% 7% 7% 9% 12% 16% 8% 19% 6%

    10% 10% 9% 8% 14% 15% 5% 20% 5%

    14% 8% 7% 6% 13% 18% 11% 16% 4%

    8% 8% 10% 8% 14% 17% 3% 21% 7%

    14% 13% 6% 7% 13% 12% 8% 19% 3%

    14% 6% 8% 6% 13% 19% 11% 16% 5%

    14% 11% 6% 5% 13% 16% 10% 17% 2%

    15% 12% 7% 9% 13% 19% 15% 5%

    7% 6% 8% 8% 12% 23% 7% 17% 7%

    14% 9% 8% 5% 15% 15% 9% 19% 4%

    13% 11% 8% 6% 12% 11% 11% 19% 3%

    TOTAL

    Northeast

    Midwest

    South

    South Central

    Central Plains

    Mountain States

    West

    RG1 GEOGRAPHICAREAS ONE

    California

    Florida

    Texas

    New York

    Rest of country

    RG2 GEOGRAPHICAREAS TWO

    McCain state

    Obama state

    ST2008 2008PRESIDENTIALWINNER