The Viability of Cattle Ranching Intensification in Brazil as a Terrestrial Climate Change Mitigation Strategy

Avery Cohn1,2, Maria Bowman1, David Zilberman1 and Kate O’Neill1 |IFRI-CCAFS Special Issue| IFPRI| Washington D.C. | 8/26/2011

1 University of California, Berkeley2 avery.cohn@gmail.com

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Findings• Science and data gaps create uncertainty about the

viability of cattle ranching intensification as a climate mitigation strategy with livelihoods benefits. To be verifiable, cattle ranching intensification programs (CRIPs) should fund better cattle systems data and science.

• Viability is strongly contingent on the system boundary of the analysis conducted. Consistency is important, entirely normative choices are inevitable.

• How short is the short run?

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Motivation

• Several emerging terrestrial climate mitigation strategies depend on “land sparing” by intensifying cattle ranching in Brazil (Gouvello, 2010;Embassy of Brazil, 2010; Ecofys, 2011) . But are Brazilian cattle ranching intensification programs (CRIPs) viable “land sparing” strategies?

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By Intensification we mean Land Use Intensification

• any combination of production or management practices that leads to all or part of the Brazilian cattle sector producing more cattle products per land unit. This could mean boosting non-land inputs, boosting output, boosting the quality of the land input, or some combination of these things.

• This doesn’t necessarily mean feedlots

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Intensificationland sparingghg mitigation rationale

~200 million cattle in Brazil~200 million hectares of pasture

= ~1 cow/hectare !!

Can an intensification policy reduce deforestation and spare land (Green, 2005; de Gouvello et al., 2010)?

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Origins of the focus on intensification

• Pasture associated with 80% of deforestation in Brazil– ~0.8=Pi/Di where for Amazonian census tract i, P=pasture

area in 2006 agricultural census and D is cumulative deforestation classified by PRODES, 2004-2006.

• “Pasture is responsible for almost 80% of total deforestation in the legal Amazon [of Brazil]” (Federal Government of Brazil, 2004; Bustamante et al. 2009; Greenpeace, 2010)

• Cattle Ranching intensification a keystone of Brazilian climate change mitigation plans (Gouvello, 2010 )

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Ranching central to GHG reductions pledged in Brazil’s NAMAs

Mt CO2 e % of total mitigationRestoration of grazing land 83-104 8%-11%

Integrated crop livestock systems 18-22 2%

Total ranching targeted 101-126 10%-13%

Reduction in Amazon deforestation 564 54%-58%

Reduction in cerrado deforestation 104 10%-11%

No-till farming 16-20 2%

Biological N2O fixation 16-20 2%

Biofuels use 48-60 5%-6%

Total ranching related 748-768 72%-80%

Energy Efficiency 12-15 1%-2%

Hydroelectric power production 79-99 8%-10%

Other alternative energy 26-33 2%-3%

Total non-ranching related 117-147 11%-15%

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Semi-intensive alternatives exist

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Management practicesNorth Northeast Southeast South Center-west

% of farms greater than 50 ha. that report rotating which pastures are grazed 28% 34% 20% 20% 32%

% of farms with planted pastures 64% 40% 48% 39% 70%

Somewhat widespread adoption of intensive technologies is already underway

Source: IBGE, 2006

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Pitfalls (1): Uncertainty

Pasture productivity estimates (in tDM/ha/yr)Source: Cohn et al., In Prep.

Pitfalls (2a): Intensification leaks• Cohn & O’Hare (In

Preparation)use survey research to show that in Mato Grosso State, Brazil 5-20% of revenue spent on farming goes to expansion (land purchases or new rental properties).

• Agricultural capital is mobile. Farms on the forest frontier don’t have higher extensification investments. Subsidizing intensification could increase short—run deforestation.

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• Boosting cattle density in Brazil could greatly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions from land use change, but not by sparing Brazilian land for forests and fuels. According to our simulation, subsidizing greater cattle density in Brazil might increase substantially the amount of cattle products Brazil produces, but might not actually prevent an increase in the overall area of pasture in Brazil. The mechanism for reduced emissions is displacement of cattle production and associated deforestation in other countries

Pitfalls (2b): Subsidy Could Cause Land Sparing Abroad (Mha 2010-2030)

Pitfalls (3): Rangeland Performance Metrics Needed

tonsDM/ha (ILRI estimates)

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Findings• Science and data gaps create uncertainty about the

viability of cattle ranching intensification as a climate mitigation strategy with livelihoods benefits. To be verifiable, cattle ranching intensification programs (CRIPs) should funds cattle systems data and science.

• Viability is strongly contingent on the system boundary of the analysis conducted. Consistency is important, entirely normative choices are inevitable.

• How short is the short run?

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References• Angelsen, A. (2010). Policies for reduced deforestation and their impact on agricultural production. Proceedings of

the National Academy of Sciences.• Bustamante, M., Nobre, C., & Smeraldi, R. (2009). Estimating Recent Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Cattle Raising

in Brazil. São Paulo, Brazil: Friends of the Earth, Brazilian Amazon.• Cohn, A., Mosnier, A., Havlik, P., Valin, H., Obersteiner, M., & O'Hare, M. (In Preparation). Cattle Ranching

Intensification Policies in Brazil Can Spare Land in Other Countries.• Cohn, A., & O'Hare, M. (In Preparation). Agricultural Intensification Processes on Large Farms In Mato Grosso State,

Brazil: Climate Costs and Benefits • Correa, E., Costa, F., de Melo Filho, G., & de Aragao Pereira, M. (2006). Improved Production Systems for Beef Cattle

in Mato Grosso do Sul State (Portuguese). Campo Grande, Brazil: The Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation.• da Silva, H., Koehler, H., Moraes, A., Guimarães, V., Hack, E., & Carvalho, P. (2008). Análise da viabilidade econômica

da produção de leite a pasto e com suplementos na região dos Campos Gerais-Parana. Cienc. Rural, 38(2), 445-450.• Ecofys. (2011). Certification Module for Low Indirect Impacts Biofuels: Field testing version • Embassy of Brazil. (2010). Brazil's Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Activites. from

http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/cop_15/copenhagen_accord/application/pdf/brazilcphaccord_app2.pdf• Federal Government of Brazil. (2004). Action Plan for the Prevention of Deforestation in the Amazon (Portuguese).

Relatôrio da Presidéncia da República, Casa Civil, Retrieved October, 12, 2009, from http://www.planalto.gov.br/casacivil/desmat.pdf

• Gouvello, C. (2010). Brazil Low Carbon Country Case Study. Washington D.C.: World Bank: Sustainable Development Department of the Latin America and Caribbean Region.

• Green, R., Cornell, S., Scharlemann, J., & Balmford, A. (2005). Farming and the Fate of Wild Nature. Science, 307(5709), 550-555.

• Greenpeace. (2009). Slaughtering the Amazon. Washington DC: Greenpeace International.• Rueda, B., Blake, R., Nicholson, C., Fox, D., Tedeschi, L., Pell, A., et al. (2003). Production and economic potentials of

cattle in pasture-based systems of the western Amazon region of Brazil. Journal of Animal Science, 81(12), 2923.• Vilela, D., Lima, J., Resende, J., & Verneque, R. (2006). Desempenho de vacas da raça holandesa em pastagem de

coastcross. R. Bras. Zootec, 35(2), 555-561.