Trutz HaaseJonathan Pratschke

ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION INDEX

Conceptual Underpinnings

ICLRD - Maynooth College - 26th November 2014

DEPRIVATION INDICES NORTH AND SOUTH

Northern Ireland 1981 – Urban Priority Areas (Department of the Environment-UK, 1983)

1991 – Relative Deprivation in NI (Robson et al., 1994)

2001 – NI Multiple Deprivation Measures (Noble, 2001)

2005 – NIMDM update (NISRA, 2005)

2010 – NIMDM update (NISRA, 2010)

Republic of Ireland 1991 – Index of Relative Affluence and Deprivation (Haase et al., 1996)

1996 – Index of Relative Affluence and Deprivation (Pratschke & Haase, 2000)

2002 – Index of Relative Affluence and Deprivation (Haase & Pratschke, 2005)

2006 – New Measures of Deprivation (Haase & Pratschke, 2008)

2006 – Pobal HP Deprivation Index (Haase & Pratschke, 2010)

2011 – Pobal HP Deprivation Index (Haase & Pratschke, 2012)

All-Island 2001/06 – All-Island Deprivation Index (Haase & Pratschke, 2012, Proof-of-Concept Study)

2011 – All-Island HP Deprivation Index (Haase & Pratschke, 2014)

THE ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION INDEX

1. Proof-of-Concept study successfully concluded in 2012, using 2006 SA level data from

the Republic of Ireland and 2001 OA level data for Northern Ireland.

2. Methodological issues that need to be addressed are:

1. Improved comparability of indicator variables

2. Common dimensionality of deprivation

3. Common statistical model

4. Standardisation of index scores across multiple jurisdictions

q The 2011 All-Island HP Deprivation Index builds closely on the joint report by CSO and

NISRA: Census 2011 – Ireland and Northern Ireland (June 2014)

q Full data matching significantly improves attractiveness of the new All-Island index.

CONCEPTUAL BASIS

1. Index is constructed by way of latent variable modelling, using Confirmatory Factor

Analysis (CFA) and a multi-group structural equation model (SEM) to represent the two

jurisdictions.

2. CFA requires a strong theoretical justification before the model is specified

3. The researcher decides which of the observed variables are to be associated with

which of the latent constructs

4. Variables are assumed to be imperfect manifestations, thus allowing for measurement

error

5. CFA models allow the comparison of outcomes over time

6. CFA facilitates the objective evaluation of the quality of the model through fit statistics

Relative Poverty

“People are living in poverty if their income and resources (material, cultural and social) are so inadequate as to preclude them from having a standard of living which is regarded as acceptable by Irish society generally.”

(Government of Ireland, NAPS, 1997)

Relative Deprivation

“The fundamental implication of the term deprivation is of an absence – of essential or desirable attributes, possessions and opportunities which are considered no more than the minimum by that society.”

(Coombes et al., DoE – UK, 1995)

A COMPREHENSIVE DEFINITION OF POVERTY

Demographic Decline (predominantly rural)

population loss and the social and demographic effects of emigration (age dependency, low education of adult population)

Social Class Deprivation (applying in rural and urban areas)

social class composition, education, housing quality

Labour Market Deprivation (predominantly urban)

unemployment, lone parents, low skills base

THE UNDERLYING DIMENSIONS OF SOCIAL DISADVANTAGE

Demographic Decline

Social Class Disadvantage

Labour Market Deprivation

Age Dependency Rate

Population Change

Low Qualification

High Qualification

Persons per Room

High Social Classes

Low Social Classes

Lone Parents

Male Unemployment

Female Unemployment

DIMENSIONALITY OF THE2011 ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION INDEX

Directly comparable indicator variables Population Change

Age Dependency

Lone Parents Ratio

Average Number of Persons per Room

Newly-designed comparable indicator variables Proportion of Adult Population with Low Qualifications (no, primary and lower secondary)

Proportion of Adult Population with High Qualifications (third level)

Proportion of Population in High Social Classes (top 2 classes in NS-SEC7 classification)

Proportion of Population in Low Social Classes (bottom 2 classes in NS-SEC7 classification)

Male Unemployment Rate (now ILO-based definition)

Female Unemployment Rate (now ILO-based definition)

COMPARABILITY OF INDICATOR VARIABLES

POPULATION CHANGE 2006 - 2011

Population Change 2006-2011Haase & Pratschke 2014

15 and higher (5118)5 to 15 (4625)0 to 5 (3841)

-5 to 0 (3456)-5 and low er (5985)

NI: 4.1% RoI: 8.2%

AGE DEPENDENCY2011

Age DependencyHaase & Pratschke 2014

39 to 78 (4168)36 to 39 (4045)33 to 36 (4889)30 to 33 (3796)0 to 30 (6127)

NI: 34.1% RoI: 33.0%

LONE PARENTS2011

Lone ParentsHaase & Pratschke 2014

50 to 100 (2417)25 to 50 (6195)15 to 25 (5255)10 to 15 (3700)0 to 10 (5458)

NI: 29.3% RoI: 21.6%

LOW QUALIFICATIONS2011

Low QualificationsHaase & Pratschke 2014

55 to 100 (3074)45 to 55 (4146)35 to 45 (6118)25 to 35 (4846)0 to 25 (4841)

NI: 40.6% RoI: 36.8%

HIGH QUALIFICATIONS2011

High QualificationsHaase & Pratschke 2014

30 to 100 (5782)22.5 to 30 (4220)17.5 to 22.5 (4073)12.5 to 17.5 (4225)0 to 12.5 (4725)

NI: 23.7%RoI: 23.5%

LOW SOCIAL CLASS2011

Low ClassHaase & Pratschke 2014

40 to 80 (4409)30 to 40 (5433)25 to 30 (3886)20 to 25 (3884)0 to 20 (5413)

NI: 34.2% RoI: 27.0%

HIGH SOCIAL CLASS2011

High ClassHaase & Pratschke 2014

35 to 100 (5888)25 to 35 (6231)20 to 25 (4029)15 to 20 (3556)0 to 15 (3321)

NI: 31.1% RoI: 27.9%

MALE ILO UNEMPLOYMENT2011

Male ILO UnemploymentHaase & Pratschke 2014

25 to 100 (5331)20 to 25 (3134)15 to 20 (4310)10 to 15 (5051)0 to 10 (5199)

NI: 10.7% RoI: 19.8%

FEMALE ILO UNEMPLOYMENT2011

Female ILO UnemploymentHaase & Pratschke 2014

20 to 100 (2620)15 to 20 (2973)10 to 15 (6192)5 to 10 (7198)0 to 5 (4042)

NI: 5.9% RoI: 12.5%

PERSONS PER ROOM2011

Average Number of Persons per RoomHaase & Pratschke 2014

0.55 to 11 (5041)0.5 to 0.55 (3941)0.45 to 0.5 (6953)0.4 to 0.45 (5273)0 to 0.4 (1817)

NI: 0.45 RoI: 0.50

2011 ALL-ISLANDHP DEPRIVATION INDEX SCORE

All-Island HP Deprivation ScoreHaase & Pratschke 2014

30 to 50 (38)20 to 30 (507)10 to 20 (3060)0 to 10 (7946)

-10 to 0 (7807)-20 to -10 (3117)-30 to -20 (535)-60 to -30 (15)

NI: 3.0 RoI: - 0.7

THREE MAJOR OBSERVATIONS

By 2011 Northern Ireland had become the more affluent of the two jurisdictions. This is of considerable interest, as the relative positions of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland are reversed compared with our previous analysis.

The driving factor in this striking development has been the ability of Northern Ireland to maintain a comparatively high level of employment despite the unfavourable economic climate since roughly the mid-point of the inter-census period.

The third observation that emerges is that rural areas in the Republic of Ireland appear to be much more negatively affected by opportunity deprivation than equivalent areas in Northern Ireland.

COMPARISON OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION SCORES NORTH AND SOUTH

COMPARING THE ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION INDEX AGAINST THE NI MULTIPLE DEPRIVATION MEASURES

2011 ALL-ISLANDHP DEPRIVATION INDEX SCORES FORCOUNTIES AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT DISTRICTS

Ireland     Northern Ireland  

Local Authority Areas AI HP Score   Local Government Districts AI HP Score

Carlow -3.84   Antrim 6.51

Cavan -2.82   Ards 4.59

Clare -2.75   Armagh 4.11

Cork City -2.12   Ballymena 4.91

County Cork 1.95   Ballymoney 2.02

County Galway -0.82   Banbridge 6.01

County Limerick -1.35   Belfast 2.65

County Waterford -1.16   Carrickfergus 4.43

Donegal -6.06   Castlereagh 8.66

Dublin City 1.79   Coleraine 3.70

Dublin Fingal 4.11   Cookstown 3.27

Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown 8.50   Craigavon 3.81

Galway City 5.47   Derry -0.44

Kerry -2.55   Down 5.00

Kildare 1.22   Dungannon 4.70

Kilkenny -1.14   Fermanagh 3.85

Laois -1.61   Larne 3.72

Leitrim -1.26   Limavady -0.70

Limerick City -8.58   Lisburn 6.47

Longford -4.41   Magherafelt 5.37

Louth -3.23   Moyle 1.08

Mayo -5.13   Newry and Mourne 2.73

Meath -0.69   Newtownabbey 5.83

Monaghan -2.83   North Down 8.43

Offaly -4.04   Omagh 4.48

Roscommon -3.73   Strabane -2.75

Sligo 0.87      

South County Dublin -1.05      

Tipperary NR -4.60      

Tipperary SR -3.87      

Waterford City -4.40      

Westmeath -1.46      

Wexford -5.90      

Wicklow -1.33      

THE ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION INDEX IN THE FORTHCOMING AIRO CENSUS ATLAS