trutz haase & jonathan pratschke the longitudinal hp deprivation index (ed) an inter-temporal...

Trutz Haase & Jonathan Pratschke

THE LONGITUDINAL HP DEPRIVATION INDEX (ED)

An Inter-temporal Analysis spanning 1991 - 2011

Dublin, 2014

THE LONGITUDINAL HP DEPRIVATION INDEX, 1991-2011

• This presentation contains an inter-temporal comparison of the Longitudinal HP Deprivation Index and the key socio-economic variables on which the index is based.

• The data spans five census waves, 1991 - 2011.

Important Note:

The analysis spanning 5 census waves is based on ED-level deprivation scores. These are different to the scores derived from the SA-level analysis and should note be confused with the ED-level scores derived from the SA-level analysis

as shown in Pobal Maps!

91 96 02 06 11

HP DEPRIVATION INDICES 1996-2014

91 96 02 06 11

91 96 02 06 11

91 96 02 06 11

91 96 02 06 11

91 96 02 06

06

06

91 96 02 06 06

91 96 02 06 06

91 96 02 06 06

91 96 02 06 06

86 91 96

86 91 96

86 91 96

86 91 96

86 91 96

96

96

96

96

96

91

91

91

91

91

SA

ED

NUTS 4

NUTS 3

NUTS 2

NUTS 1

Haase et al., 1996Haase, 1999

Pratschke & Haase, 2004Haase & Pratschke, 2005 Haase & Pratschke, 2008

Haase & Pratschke, 2010 Haase & Pratschke, 2012

91 96 02

91 96 02

91 96 02

91 96 02

91 96 02

Pratschke & Haase, 2001

01NI

01NI

01NI

01NI

01NI

01NI

Haase & Pratschke, 2011Level at which model is estimated

Level to which data is aggregatedHaase, Pratschke & Gleeson, 2014

06 11

06 11

06 11

06 11

06 11

06 11

11 RI

11 NI

11 RI

11 NI

11 RI

11 NI

11 RI

11 NI

11 RI

11 NI

11 RI

11 NI

Pratschke & Haase, 2014

All-Island HP Deprivation Index

Pobal HP Deprivation Index

Longitudinal HP Deprivation Index

The Longitudinal HP Deprivation Index, 1991- 2011

Analysis of Key Socio-economic Variables

NUTS 1 – 4 (County and Region)

POPULATION CHANGE1991 - 2011

• 30 per cent increase between 1991 and 2011

• Initial growth faster in S&E Region

• Since 2006, faster growth in BMW Region

Ireland.

Border,Midlands&WesternSouthern&Eastern

.Midlands

BorderWest

Mid WestSouth WestSouth East

Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo

County GalwayGalway City

Tipperary NRCounty Limerick

Limerick CityClareKerry

County CorkCork City

County WaterfordWaterford CityTipperary SR

WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare

Dun Laoghaire/RathdownDublin Fingal

South County DublinDublin City

80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

AGE DEPENDENCY RATE1991 - 2011

• 7 percentage point decline between 1991 and 2006

• Rural areas gradually “catching-up”

• Reversal in trend between 2006 and 2011, with Age Dependency Rate again increasing

Ireland.


.Midlands

BorderWest


Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo






WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare



45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

LONE PARENT RATE1991 - 2011

• Doubling in rate between 1991 and 2006

• Highly concentrated in urban areas

• Further increase in rural areas between 2006 and 2011

• Reversal in trend after 2006 in all cities except Cork

Ireland.


.Midlands

BorderWest


Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo






WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare



5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

PROPORTION OF ADULT POPULATION WITH PRIMARY EDUCATION ONLY

1991 - 2011

• Two-fold decline between 1991 and 2006

• Rural areas gradually “catching-up”

• Trend continues between 2006 and 2011

Ireland.


.Midlands

BorderWest


Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo






WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare



60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

PROPORTION OF ADULT POPULATION WITH THIRD LEVEL EDUCATION1991 - 2011

• 2 ½ - fold increase between 1991 and 2006

• Rural areas just marginally “catching-up”

• Only marginal increase in select areas between 2006 and 2011

• Other areas experiencing first marginal decline

Ireland.


.Midlands

BorderWest


Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo






WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare



0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

PROPORTION OF POPULATION IN HIGHER AND LOWER PROFESSIONAL CLASSES1991 - 2011

• 30 % increase between 1991 and 2006

• Rural areas only marginally “catching-up”

• Trend continues between 2006 and 2011

• But catastrophic performance of Limerick

Ireland.


.Midlands

BorderWest


Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo






WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare



10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

PROPORTION OF POPULATION IN UNSKILLED AND SEMI-SKILLED CLASSES1991 - 2011

• 10 percentage point decline between 1991 and 2006

• Rural areas “catching-up”

• Trend continues between 2006 and 2011, albeit at a slower rate

Ireland.


.Midlands

BorderWest


Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo






WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare



45% 35% 25% 15% 5%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

MALE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE1991 - 2011

• Rapid decline between 1991 and 2002, halving rates

• Rural areas not fully participating in trend

• Urban areas already stagnant at 2006 and massive reversal between 2006 and 2011 for all areas

• 2011 rates exceed 1991 rates in all counties except Dublin City

Ireland.


.Midlands

BorderWest


Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo






WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare



0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

FEMALE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE1991 - 2011

• Steady decline between 1991 and 2002, nearly halving rates

• Decline in urban areas exceeds that in rural areas

• Urban areas already showing slight reversal in trend in 2006 and massive increase between 2006 and 2011

• 2011 rates exceed 1991 rates in most counties Ireland

.Border,Midlands&Western

Southern&Eastern.

MidlandsBorder

WestMid West

South WestSouth East

Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo






WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare



0% 10% 20% 30%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

LOCAL AUTHORITY HOUSING1991 - 2011

• Drastic decline between 1991 and 2002, particularly in Southern & Eastern Region

• Reversal in trend thereafter, with slow increases pertaining

• Imbalance between rural and urban provision gradually diminishing

Ireland.


.Midlands

BorderWest


Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo






WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare



0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

PRIVATELY RENTED HOUSING1991 - 2011

• Strongly concentrated in the cities

• Steady increase between 1991 and 2006

• Both in urban and rural counties

• Steep increase between 2006 and 2011

Ireland.


.Midlands

BorderWest


Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo






WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare



0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

OWNER OCCUPIED HOUSING1991 - 2011

• Rates in rural areas much higher than in urban environs

• Steady decline between 1991 and 2006

• Accelerated decline between 2006 and 2011, in both urban and rural locations

Ireland.


.Midlands

BorderWest


Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo






WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare



100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM1991 - 2011

• Massive improvement over time

• Rural ratios overtaking urban ratios since 2002

Ireland.


.Midlands

BorderWest


Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo






WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare



0.75% 0.65% 0.55% 0.45% 0.35%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

The Longitudinal HP Deprivation Index, 1991- 2011

Analysis of Key Socio-economic Variables

NUTS 5 - Electoral Divisions (ED)

5 YEAR POPULATION CHANGE1991 - 2011

5 YEAR POPULATION CHANGE 1991 – 2011

(TRUNCATED AT +30 %)

AGE DEPENDENCY RATE1991 - 2011

LONE PARENT RATE1991 - 2011

PROPORTION OF ADULT POPULATION WITH PRIMARY EDUCATION ONLY

1991 - 2011

PROPORTION OF ADULT POPULATION WITH THIRD LEVEL EDUCATION1991 - 2011

PROPORTION OF POPULATION IN HIGHER AND LOWER PROFESSIONAL CLASSES1991 - 2011

PROPORTION OF POPULATION IN UNSKILLED AND SEMI-SKILLED CLASSES1991 - 2011

MALE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE1991 - 2011

FEMALE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE1991 - 2011

LOCAL AUTHORITY HOUSING1991 – 2011

(NOT USED IN INDEX)

PERSONS PER ROOM1991 - 2011

The Longitudinal HP Deprivation Index , 1991- 2011

Mapping Absolute and Relative Deprivation Scores

ED-LEVELABSOLUTE INDEX SCORES1991

HP Deprivation Index ED 1991 absoluteHaase & Pratschke 2013

30 to 75 (53)20 to 30 (79)10 to 20 (252)0 to 10 (1184)

-10 to 0 (1431)-20 to -10 (360)-30 to -20 (49)



30 to 75 (52)20 to 30 (133)10 to 20 (562)0 to 10 (1625)

-10 to 0 (875)-20 to -10 (151)-30 to -20 (10)



30 to 75 (77)20 to 30 (314)10 to 20 (1021)0 to 10 (1440)

-10 to 0 (436)-20 to -10 (103)-30 to -20 (16)-50 to -30 (1)



30 to 75 (55)20 to 30 (314)10 to 20 (1201)0 to 10 (1385)

-10 to 0 (341)-20 to -10 (93)-30 to -20 (18)-50 to -30 (1)


HP Deprivation Index ED2011 absoluteHaase & Pratschke 2013

30 to 75 (14)20 to 30 (82)10 to 20 (296)0 to 10 (1026)

-10 to 0 (1414)-20 to -10 (460)-30 to -20 (98)-50 to -30 (18)

ED-LEVELRELATIVEINDEX SCORES1991

HP Deprivation Index ED 1991 relativeHaase & Pratschke 2013

30 to 75 (53)20 to 30 (79)10 to 20 (252)0 to 10 (1184)

-10 to 0 (1431)-20 to -10 (360)-30 to -20 (49)



30 to 75 (37)20 to 30 (100)10 to 20 (325)0 to 10 (1112)

-10 to 0 (1390)-20 to -10 (375)-30 to -20 (66)-50 to -30 (3)



30 to 75 (11)20 to 30 (86)10 to 20 (406)0 to 10 (1125)

-10 to 0 (1333)-20 to -10 (346)-30 to -20 (91)-50 to -30 (10)



30 to 75 (2)20 to 30 (76)10 to 20 (420)0 to 10 (1204)

-10 to 0 (1267)-20 to -10 (317)-30 to -20 (98)-50 to -30 (24)



30 to 75 (19)20 to 30 (91)10 to 20 (368)0 to 10 (1161)

-10 to 0 (1331)-20 to -10 (352)-30 to -20 (76)-50 to -30 (10)

HP DEPRIVATION SCORES IN COMPARISON, 1991-2011

HP Deprivation Index N Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation

HP 1991 ED absolute 3,409 -28.0 73.3 0.0 10.0

HP 1996 ED absolute 3,409 -27.4 45.7 4.3 9.2

HP 2002 ED absolute 3,409 -30.6 42.1 8.4 9.9

HP 2006 ED absolute 3,409 -35.0 39.9 9.2 9.3

HP 2011 ED absolute 3,409 -43.7 41.6 -1.4 10.1

HP 1991 ED relative 3,409 -28.0 73.3 0.0 10.0

HP 1996 ED relative 3,409 -34.4 45.1 0.0 10.0

HP 2002 ED relative 3,409 -39.4 34.0 0.0 10.0

HP 2006 ED relative 3,409 -47.4 32.9 0.0 10.0

HP 2011 ED relative 3,409 -41.9 42.7 0.0 10.0

trutz haase & jonathan pratschke the longitudinal hp deprivation index (ed) an inter-temporal...

Documents

pratschke haase

haase pratschke

trendurban areas

hp deprivation indices

pratschke gleeson

halving ratesrural areas

edlevel deprivation

salevel analysis