TSUNAMI HAZARD ZONING FOR THE SOUTHERN KURIL ISLANDS Kaystrenko V., Khramushin V., Zolotukhin D. Russian Academy of Sciences Far Eastern Branch Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics Tsunami sources distribution along the Kuril Islands zone Area of investigation CONTENT Step 1. Creating the probability model for tsunami activity using natural data Step 2 Numerical modeling of the tsunamis Step 3 Tsunami wave form re-calculation through the shelf up to the shore line Step 4 Calculation of the H* for all the coastal points Step 5 Creating the tsunami zoning scheme Step 1. Creating the probability model for tsunami activity using natural data Probability to have n tsunamis during time period t at present place with the wave height exceeding given threshold value h, is given by the formula: The average frequency (h) as a function of "threshold" h is named the recurrence function. This function is monotonous decreasing and at h>0.5 m is well approximated by exponent: Regional parameter is the frequency of great tsunami and slowly changing along the coast, and H* is characteristic height of tsunami for every coastal point. The last parameter is very changeable along the coast The least square method can be used to estimate the model parameters and H* together with its dispersions Empirical tsunami recurrence functions for the main points on the Southern Kuril Islands Tsunami activity parameters for three coastal points with the best sets of natural data Settlements Ln ff, 1/year (ln(f)H*, m (H*)/H* Malo- kurilskoye Yuzhno- Kurilsk Burevestnik The values of great tsunami frequencies are close, because all great tsunami occur in all points of the region Because the frequency of great tsunami can be considered one and the same for all region of the Southern Kuril Island, this allows creating and analyzing the common model for the Southern Kuril region, including 18 points with common frequency of great tsunami =0.17 1/year with "relative error" (ln() = 0.13 for the region. Step 2 Numerical modeling of the tsunamis 1958 (Iturup), 1960 (Chile), 1963 (Urup), 1969 (Shikotan), 1994 (Shikotan) creating tsunami activity in this region Bathimetry area combined with Global Land-30. Step 3 Tsunami wave form re-calculation through the shelf up to the shore line Model 1Model 2 T = 2 L /kg = 2L / gH - travel time from artificial wall to the coast N.Shuto's factor for quasi monochrome waves R - wave amplitude on the shore line in the 1 st model, a - wave amplitude near the artificial wall in the 2 nd model Step 4 Calculation of the H* for all the coastal points Parameters of tsunami activity for main points of the Southern Kuril Island with common value of frequency of great tsunami =0.17 1/year with "relative error" (ln() = 0.13 for the region Settlements and places H*, m using natural data H*, m calculated Sentyabr'skii Burevestnik Kurilsk Lovtsova cape Vinai river Kosmodem'yanskoe Yuzhno-Kurilsk Sernovodsk Zelenyi Is Yury Is Polonskogo Is Correlation coefficient r = 0.93 CONCLUSIONS The given model allowed to calculate the frequency of strong tsunami =0.17 1/year for all region of the Southern Kuril Islands with the considerably small relative error (ln () = In the frames of this model we received the values H* for all the concidered points with their dispersions. All these parameters are tsunami activity parameters based on the measured tsunami heights. Step 5 Creating the tsunami zoning scheme Thank You !