understanding the future of queensland's real estate and construction industry
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MacroPlan Dimasi's Executive Chairman Brian Haratsis exploresTRANSCRIPT
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
REBALANCING THE QUEENSLAND ECONOMY
Presented by Brian HaratsisThursday 22 May 2014
Understanding the future of Queensland’s Real Estate
and Construction Industry
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Give us a call if you have any questions…
MacroPlan Dimasi is Australia’s first choice when seeking solutions which add value to important property, planning and economic
development projects.
We welcome the opportunity to discuss with you, key market trends as they relate to your business and sector. If you have any questions
regarding any of the data provided in this presentation please feel free to give us a call.
Brian Haratsis – Executive Chairman, 03 9600 0500 or [email protected]
Joel Taylor – General Manager Queensland, 07 3221 8166 or [email protected]
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Contents Demographics Economics Resources Agriculture Ageing Budget and Cycles
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
The rebalancing megatrends Demographics – NOM vs. NIM Business Investment – mining vs. non-
mining Emerging vs. declining regions SEQ vs. regions Budgets vs. economic cycles
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
The rebalancing megatrends Workers vs. dependents Tourism – international vs. domestic tourism Queensland vs. eastern seaboard
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Demographics | population growth
Source: ABS Cat 3101
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Demographics
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Interstate Migration | Queensland
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-2000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
0-14 15-24 25-34 35-54 55-64 65+Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Overseas Migration | Queensland
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
0-14 15-24 25-34 35-54 55-64 65+Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Demographics – labour markets
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Economics
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Economics – tourism
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Economics
Sour
ce: Q
ld G
over
nmen
t Sta
tistic
ian’
s offi
ce, Q
ld
Trea
sury
& T
rade
March Quarter 2013 March Quarter 2014
TIPPING POINT
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Economics – household sector
X Factor
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Economics – high debt Post GFC Target
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Economics – house price arbitrage
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Economics – business sector
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Economics – business sector
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Economics – industry
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Economics – commodity prices
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Economics – balance of payments & external position
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Location of Australia’s Gas Resources and Infrastructure
Resources
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
ResourcesOutlook to 2023 – Eastern Australian Gas Market
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Resources
Short term gas market projections
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Resources
Short term gas supply projections
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Resources
Number of Advanced Projects
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Agriculture The Queensland government has a 2040
vision for the agriculture, fisheries and forestry industries. It will work with all stakeholders to address four key pathways: Securing and increasing resource availability Driving productivity growth across the supply
chain Securing and increasing market access Minimising the costs of production
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Agriculture
Qld volume of agriculture output in 1981-82 dollars
Source: Qld’s agriculture strategy | A 2040 vision to double agricultural production
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Agriculture
Pathways to double agricultural production
Source: Qld’s agriculture strategy | A 2040 vision to double agricultural production
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Ageing Between the past 40 years and the next 40
years, the number of persons aged65 years and over increases dramatically.
The aged dependency ratio doubles.
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Ageing
Growth in dependency ratio driven by migration programs of 1970s to 2000.
Now at 1%
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Ageing
Retirement living vs. retirement villages Only 6-8% of
the market live in retirement villages.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Perth Adelaide Brisbane Capital City Average
Sydney Melbourne
Re
tire
me
nt
Vil
lage
Pe
net
rati
on
Rat
e
Me
diu
m a
nd
Hig
h D
en
sity
Dw
ell
ing
Shar
e
Retirement Village Penetration Rate vs Medium and High Density Dwelling Share, Capital Cities
Share of Medium/High Density Dwellings Retirement Village Penetration Rate
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Ageing
123
4
Demand for retirement living dwellings – future demand.
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Ageing
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
Sep-
97
Feb-
98
Jul-9
8
Dec
-98
May
-99
Oct-
99
Mar
-00
Au
g-00
Jan-
01
Jun-
01
No
v-01
Ap
r-02
Sep-
02
Feb-
03
Jul-0
3
Dec
-03
May
-04
Oct-
04
Mar
-05
Au
g-05
Jan-
06
Jun-
06
No
v-06
Ap
r-07
Sep-
07
Feb-
08
Jul-0
8
Dec
-08
May
-09
Oct-
09
Mar
-10
Lab
ou
r Fo
rce
Par
tici
pati
on
Rat
e
Participation Rate in the Labour Force, People Aged 65+, Queensland
More people 65+ are working
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Budget and Cycles Federal
Headline Numbers GDP: $1,567 Billion (Chain Volume Measures)
RBA Target Cash Rate: 2.5%
Total Budget Spend: $415.7bn
Budget Spend per cent of GDP: 25.4%
Major Impact : Interest rates on hold. Confidence.
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Budget and Cycles Federal
Key Themes Business Sector
Infrastructure
Mining
Tourism
Service Sector (Health + Education)
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Cycles Over the last 20 years QLD has experienced high
volatility in growth and development due to national and local economic cycles driving:
Interest Rates Business Investment House and Land
Prices
Immigration Gross State
Product and wealth
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Australian GDP Growth Cyclicality
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
GDP (LHS) GDP Growth (RHS)
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Population Cycles – net migration
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
The Cyclical Economy
Aug-1990
Mar-1991
Oct-1991
May-1992
Dec-1992
Jul-1993
Feb-1994
Sep-1994
Apr-1995
Nov-1995
Jun-1996
Jan-1997
Aug-1997
Mar-1998
Oct-1998
May-1999
Dec-1999
Jul-2000
Feb-2001
Sep-2001
Apr-2002
Nov-2002
Jun-2003
Jan-2004
Aug-2004
Mar-2005
Oct-2005
May-2006
Dec-2006
Jul-2007
Feb-2008
Sep-2008
Apr-2009
Nov-2009
Jun-2010
Jan-2011
Aug-2011
Mar-2012
Oct-2012
May-2013
Dec-2013
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16% RBA Target Cash Rate
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
The Current Bust Cycle in Qld has bottomed ↑GSP ↑ Labour Force ↑ Private Investment ↑ Population Housing prices at realistic levels
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Queensland GSP Growth
1991
-92
1992
-93
1993
-94
1994
-95
1995
-96
1996
-97
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-00
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
2005
-06
2006
-07
2007
-08
2008
-09
2009
-10
2010
-11
2011
-12
2012
-13
2013
-14
2014
-15
2015
-16
2016
-17
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Real GSP Budget Forecast
% G
SP G
row
th
Forecast
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Building Approvals - Queensland
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
2005
-06
2006
-07
2007
-08
2008
-09
2009
-10
2010
-11
2011
-12
2012
-13
2013
-14
2014
-15
2015
-16
2016
-17
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%2.2%
Dwelling Approvals (LHS) MacroPlan Forecast (Dwelling Approvals)10-year average growth (RHS)
Dw
elli
ng A
ppro
vals
(N
o.)
Gro
wth
(%
)
Forecast
Forecast Building Approvals - Queensland
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Dec-1
0
Mar
-11
Jun-
11
Sep-
11
Dec-1
1
Mar
-12
Jun-
12
Sep-
12
Dec-1
2
Mar
-13
Jun-
13
Sep-
13
Dec-1
30
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
17.2%
Total Dwellings Financed (LHS) First Home Buyer Share (RHS)
Dw
elli
ngs
Finance
d (
no.)
Share
of
Dw
elli
ngs
FInance
d (
%)
Housing finance - Queensland
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
National Dwelling Prices – March Qtr 2014
35% Arbitrage – 40% Brisbane ($450k) / Sydney $750k)
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Median Housing Sale Price - Qld
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Median Rent of Lodgements - Qld
$/w
eek
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
House Sales – volumes - Qld
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Unit Sale Volumes - Qld
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Queensland Snapshot – May 2014
Source: ABS Cat. 3101, 3218, 6345, 6401, 6202, 6414, 8510, 8731, 9314 & Tourism Research
Australia
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Implications for Real Estate and Construction
Two key themes.
1. Resources investment likely to persist longer than expected.
2. Synchronised State level economic growth likely by 2016/17 with initial growth in 2014/15.
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Implications for Real Estate and Construction
Tipping Point
The tipping point occurred in the December 2013 / March 2014 quarters when employment growth outstripped the national average, population growth at $1.8% shifted back towards 2% and retail expenditure shifted in line with Melbourne and Sydney.
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Implications for Real Estate and Construction
Looking to 2016 | initial economic transition Low interest rates (<3% cash rate) Moderate inflation (2.5% – 3.0%) Fast population growth (2% or 100,000 per
annum) Resource exports 100%
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Implications for Real Estate and Construction
Looking to 2016 | initial economic transition Public infrastructure expenditure 10% per
annum 25% non-resource investment
25% (significant job impact)
Population driven services (e.g. retail, health, education) employment at 2% per annum.
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Implications for Real Estate and Construction
Brisbane Retail floorspace investment significantly Residential :
Multi-Unit CBD /
Non CBD
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Implications for Real Estate and Construction
Brisbane Residential :
Detached dwellings Tightening land supply
Investment housing 25% - 35% stock / Rental demand.
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Implications for Real Estate and Construction
Brisbane Office :
Over-supply in CBD / service sector employment and growth post 2016/17
Under-supply outside CBD
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Implications for Real Estate and Construction
Brisbane Tourism :
Domestic tourism 1% per annum growth
International tourism 4% per annum growth (max)
New Brisbane casino and regional
Freight and Logistics : Major investment potential
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
X Factors Federal and State balanced budgets 2017/18 G20 Commonwealth Games – 2018 Brisbane Airport second runway – 2020 ( visitations) Broadwater Cruise Ship Terminal – 2018 Broadwater Casino / Hotels / Wavebreak Island – 2018-2025 Chinese Tourist Potential Inland Rail – Brisbane / Toowoomba
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
X Factors Toowoomba Second Range Crossing Toowoomba Airport Resource Exports 150% by 2020 Agricultural Exports 50% by 2020 Government expenditure / public sector employment Housing price arbitrage (Sydney) – post 2015 NIM Chinese / US / Japanese investment returns to Qld
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Eastern Seaboard / Global Context Fast growth in Melbourne and Sydney
(demographic + economic) ALWAYS results in downstream Qld impact.
From 2014 to 2019 Sydney / Melbourne / Brisbane will increase population by 1.4m people.
With stable and consistent Federal governance, synchronised growth (except tourism) is likely to occur in Queensland post 2016 – as follows…
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Eastern Seaboard / Global Context
3% Australian GDP 2% + population growth 4% GSP Growth in key export sectors – resources/agriculture State and local government employment growth Return to Brisbane of national services sector (10
years post GFC) Major infrastructure expenditure (PPPs)
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Opportunities Urban Planning | deregulation
Unlocking the value of the middle ring
Tourism | new strategy and product Freight and Logistics | resources /
agriculture Global Services Sectors | resources /
agriculture / freight and logistics
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Opportunities Gold Coast Revival | recreational boating Toowoomba | national centre for freight and
logistics and centre for resources and agriculture sectors
Brisbane | synchronised residential / office / retail CBD and inner ring
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Rebalancing the Queensland Economy | 22 May 2014
Thank you.
MacroPlan Dimasi is Australia’s first choice when seeking solutions which add value to important property, planning and economic
development projects.
We welcome the opportunity to discuss with you, key market trends as they relate to your business and sector. If you have any questions
regarding any of the data provided in this presentation please feel free to give us a call.
Brian Haratsis – Executive Chairman, 03 9600 0500 or [email protected]
Joel Taylor – General Manager Queensland, 07 3221 8166 or [email protected]