Unit 5 - Public Opinion & Ideology

Targets 5.5 – 5.8

Public Opinion Case Study

• Does it seem possible or does it seem impossible to you that the Holocaust never happened?

Possible

Impossible

Public Opinion Case Study

• Does it seem POSSIBLE or does it seem IMPOSSIBLE to you that the Holocaust never happened?

Possible

Impossible

22%

• Can we trust public opinion polls?

o The 1993 Roper poll caused a shock wave when over 1/5 (22%) of respondents indicated that they believed it was possible the Holocaust did not happen. The question contained a double negative

o By changing the wording of the question, the number dropped to just 1%

Public Opinion Case Study

5.5 Deciphering Public Opinion

• 5a Should government care what the public thinks or wants?o In a democracy, how important is it for government actions to reflect the

popular will?

• 5b Why is public opinion so hard to pin down?o Public uniformedo Public opinion changeso Polling Techniques: Question wording matters, Must be Random / Large

sampling

• 5c What factors influence political beliefs?o Familyo Ageo Religiono Gendero Social Classo Raceo Region

5.5 Deciphering Public Opinion

5.6 Political Ideology/Beliefs• Q:What distinguishes a Democrat from a Republican?• A: Political ideology =

o Beliefs and/or convictions regarding political & moral issues

o Political ideologies / labels…

• … liberal and conservativeo Meaning has changed

• … Those in the middle are called moderates

o As a rule, the Democrats are liberal and the Republicans are conservative.

5.6b Political Ideology/Beliefs• Q: What do the labels “liberal” and

“conservative” mean?• A: Beliefs on a wide range of issues, ranging from

the environment to gay marriage

• Issues can be categorized as economic issues or social issues

• “Hot button” Issues o Abortiono Gay Marriageo Gun Controlo Illegal Immigrationo National debt

o Religion in Schools• Evolution v. Intelligent Design

o The Environment• Global Warming

o Inconvenient Truth

• Wolf release program

5.6b Political Ideology/Beliefs

Name Calling

5.6c Measuring Political Ideology• The Political Spectrum

The Right

The Left

liberals moderates

conservatives

Origins of Political Ideology (NPR – Dec 2013)

5.6d Interpreting Data• Are more Americans Conservative, Liberal or

Moderate? How does this correspond with party affiliation?

• Interpret two charts from Pew Research: One showing Ideology and the other showing party affiliationo What is the trend for each chart?

o When comparing the two, do you see any anomalies?

o How might we explain this?

5.6 Activity - Gauging Your Own

Ideology

• Complete this activity by taking 2 of the following surveys…o World’s Smallest Political Quiz

• &o Go to Quiz

- Or -o Pew Research – Political Typology

• Liberal

• Conservative

5.6c Gauging Political Ideology

• Libertariano Demographics = younger, more educatedo Social Issues = Liberalo Economic Issues = Conservative

5.6d Beyond Conservative & Liberal

• Populistso Demographics = Older, less educated

5.6d Beyond Conservative & Liberal

• Other Labelso Environmentalistso Feminist

• Mormon Feministso Atheistso Agnosticso Fundamentalist

5.6d Beyond Conservative & Liberal

5.7 Q: “Who” are Liberals &

Conservatives?• A: Many factors shape, or otherwise correlate with

an individuals ideological beliefs. The following are some important demographic factors:o Gendero Raceo Ageo Region

• Southern states v. North East• West coast v. Intermountain region• Urban v. Rural

o Religion• Church goers v. secularists

o Educationo Incomeo Family (married?, Children?, etc.)

5.7 In Depth - Who are liberals &

Conservatives• Complete this In depth Assignment by using CNN Exit Polls

o 2012 Presidential Exit Polls (CNN)o Once at the web site, choose the exit poll tabo 2014 Mid term exit polls (CNN)

o Example:

• View of Federal Health Law (Obamacare) – 2014 exit pollso Conservatives are much more likely to oppose Obamacare at 84%,

whereas liberals are much more likely to favor at 74% o In your answer, use the phrases “more likely” & “less likely” to record the

trend

• Other Polls to look at (Note that some categories are not included)o 2012 Exit Polls (NY Times)o 2012 Exit Polls (Wash. Post) Compares 2012 & 2008 Elections

• How do Exit polls Work? (Vox)

5.7a The “gender gap”

5.7b Region

Region

5.7c RaceVOTE BY RACE BUSH KERRY NADER

TOTAL 2004 2000 2004 2004

White (77%) 58% +4 41% 0%

African-American (11%) 11% +2 88% 0%

Latino (8%) 44% +9 53% 2%

Asian (2%) 44% +3 56% *

Other (2%) 40% +1 54% 2%

5.7c Age

VOTE BY AGEBUSH KERRY NADER

TOTAL 2004 2000 2004 2004

18-29 (17%) 45% n/a 54% 0%

30-44 (29%) 53% +4 46% 1%

45-59 (30%) 51% +2 48% 0%

60 and Older (24%) 54% +7 46% 0%

5.7c ReligionVOTE BY RELIGION BUSH KERRY NADER

TOTAL 2004 2000 2004 2004

Protestant (54%) 59% +3 40% 0%

Catholic (27%) 52% +5 47% 0%

Jewish (3%) 25% +6 74% *

Other (7%) 23% -5 74% 1%

None (10%) 31% +1 67% 1%

Religion cont.CHURCH ATTENDANCE

KERRY NADER

TOTAL 2004 2000 2004 2004

More Than Weekly (16%) 64% n/a 35% 1%

Weekly (26%) 58% n/a 41% 0%

Monthly (14%) 50% n/a 49% *

A Few Times a Year (28%) 45% n/a 54% 0%

Never (15%) 36% n/a 62% 1%

BUSH

Democrats and Religion

5.7c Family Status

Married and Have Children?

All Gore Bush Buchanan Nader

Yes 31 % 41 % 56 % 0 % 2 %

No 69 % 51 % 44 % 1 % 3 %

Are You Married? All Gore Bush Buchanan Nader

Yes 65 % 44 % 53 % 1 % 2 %

No 35 % 57 % 38 % 0 % 4 %

5.8 Political Elites• Elites are more ideolo

gical than the general public (Pew)