water education foundation san diego tour, by kelley gage
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San Diego County Water AuthoritySan Diego County Water AuthoritySan Diego County Water Authority San Diego County Water Authority 2010 Urban Water2010 Urban Water
llManagement Plan Management Plan
Kelley Gage
1
Senior Water Resources SpecialistSeptember 8, 2011
Water Authority’s 2010 UWMPWater Authority’s 2010 UWMP Update required by law every 5 years; purpose and
importance has grown since first required 25 yearsimportance has grown since first required 25 years ago
Includes elements of drought management planning Official Water Authority policy document on supply
and demand management planning for the region Utilized as supporting document in preparation of Utilized as supporting document in preparation of
water supply assessments/verifications under SB 610 & 221
Required to be eligible to receive funding or drought assistance from state
Foundation document for 2012 Facilities Master Plan
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Foundation document for 2012 Facilities Master Plan
2010 Pl M i El2010 Plan Main Elements
Water Use WaterDemand Forecast
Water Use Efficiency
Target
Water Supplies
Water Resource
Mix
Scenario Planning
Econometric M d l R t il Water Resource Process to Model
utilizing SANDAG Regional Growth
Retail Compliance
with SBX7-7: 20% savings
by 2020
Water Authority
and member agency
verifiable l
Resource mix to meet demands in normal and dry water
manage supply
uncertainties associated
withGrowth Forecast
by 2020 supplies years with resource mix
3 3
SBX7 7 C liSBX7‐7 Compliance Requires retail water suppliers to achieve a 20% q pp
reduction in urban per capita water use by 2020 Retail compliance can be achieved through a
b f l d l d dd lcombination of recycled water supplies and additional conservation savings
Requires wholesale water agencies to include in Requires wholesale water agencies to include in their UWMPs discussions of programs they intend to implement to support water demand reduction p ppgoals
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Normal Year Baseline DemandNormal Year Baseline Demand Forecast with Future Conservation (AF)
900
1,000
TAF)
800
900
eman
d (T
700
Total D
e
600
2020 2025 2030 2035
5
Baseline Demand without Price Effect Baseline Demand with Price Effect SBx 7‐7 Compliance Demand
W t A th it P j t d S liWater Authority Projected Supplies (Verifiable)
300
350
400
Carlsbad Seawater
200
250
300 Carlsbad Seawater Desalination (online 2016)Canal Lining Projects
TAF
100
150
200 Canal Lining Projects
IID Water Transfer
0
50
6
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
M b A P j t d S liMember Agency Projected Supplies(Verifiable)
120
140
80
100
Recycled Water
20
40
60 GroundwaterSurface Water
0
20
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
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Existing
Development of Projected WaterDevelopment of Projected Water Resources Mix
Member Agency Local
S li
Retail Compliance
SBX7 7 S i
Projected
Supplies “Verifiable”
SBX7-7 Savings Targets
jResource
Mixes
MWD Supplies (Normal and
SDCWA Supplies
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(Allocation Years) (QSA, Carlsbad
Desal)
Normal Water Year Assessment (2030)Normal Water Year Assessment (2030) (Verifiable Supplies)
No shortages 800 MWDDemands 753 TAF
No shortages anticipated if:
• Supplies are 292 TAF600
700
800 MWD
ppdeveloped as planned by MWD, Water Authority and
292 TAF
400
500
600Carlsbad Seawater Desalination56 TAF
member agencies
• Member agencies achieve SBX7 7
124 TAF
200
300
400
Member Agency
achieve SBX7-7 savings targets 280 TAF
0
100
200Local Supplies
QSA
9
02030 Projected Normal Year
Transfer Supplies
Single Dry Year Water Assessment (2030)Single Dry Year Water Assessment (2030) (Verifiable Supplies)
No shortages 900MWD Demands 804 TAF
No shortages anticipated if:
• Supplies are 700
800
900
ppdeveloped as planned by MWD, Water Authority and
375 TAF
500
600Regional Seawater Desalination (Carlsbad)
member agencies
• Member agencies achieve SBX7 7
92 TAF
200
300
400(Carlsbad)
Member Agency Local
56 TAF
achieve SBX7-7 savings targets 152 TAF
0
100
200 Local Supplies
QSA Transfer
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02030 Projected Dry Year
Transfer Supplies
Multiple Dry Year Assessment (SupplyMultiple Dry Year Assessment (Supply Allocations)
900,000 Potential12 TAF Shortage*
Potential shortages in some years 700,000
800,000
900,000 Potential Shortage*
Carryover • Mitigated through
carryover storage and shortage
400 000
500,000
600,000y
Storage
MWD All i
gmanagement actions
200,000
300,000
400,000 Allocation (P.R.)Member Agency
0
100,000
, Agency SuppliesWater Authority
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2026 2027 2028Authority Supplies
Scenario Planning – Managing anScenario Planning – Managing an Uncertain Future
Growth SWP Reliability RecurringGrowth SWP Reliability Recurring Droughts
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Local Projects Development Risk
Climate Change
M j S i S i Pl i PMajor Steps in Scenario Planning Process
Projected Uncertainty Potential Key Tracking jResources Mix• Develop in
yScenarios• Based on
critical t i ti
Strategies• Qualitative
and tit ti
y gMetrics• Metrics to track
implementation f icoordination
with member agencies
uncertainties• Risk
assessment of resources mix
quantitative• Manage
uncertainties• Fill potential
of resource mix and potential need for strategies
• Identify “supply gap”
p“supply gap” • Avoid over
investment
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2010 Pl S i Pl i2010 Plan – Scenario Planning
Evaluated 6 scenarios Scenario 4: Limited MWD, Water Authority Evaluated 6 scenarios Developed based on
uncertaintiesQuantitative and 900
1000Gap
Scenario 4: Limited MWD, Water Authority and Member Agency Local Supplies
Quantitative and qualitative
Identified potential 700
800
900 Gap
Carryover StorageTA
Fsupply gap 50 – 120 TAF
Identified strategies to 400
500
600StorageMWD (allocations)SBX7-7 Identified strategies to
fill gap Additional planned
j t 100
200
300SSavingsLocal Supply (2009 levels)
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projects 0
100
2030 (dry year)
QSA
2010 Pl A hi i R li bili2010 Plan ‐ Achieving Reliability
Implement diverse water resource mix
Continue to explore development of additional
planned projectsplanned projects
Supply Reliability
R t il li ith
Supply Reliability
Retail compliance with SBX7-7 conservation
target
Adaptive management through Scenario Planning
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