Wind and emission reductions Moving to a 30% target

Rémi GruetClimate Change AdvisorEuropean Wind Energy Association Date

Outline of presentation

• State of play on Climate

• Wind-avoided CO2 in the EU

• Global Wind and a new climate agreement

• Wind-avoided CO2 outside Europe

Conlusions

Which place for wind in the climate debate?

• State of debate– Industry calling for 20% reduction max– NGOs calling for environmental integrity – 40%– Press relaying climate negationism– Uncertainty of process: COP15, US climate bill,

Yvo leaving

• Wind message: reducing emissions is possible !– Wind is growing, innovating, available today,

etc…– Wind makes a substantial % of EU reductions

Outline of presentation

• State of play on Climate

• Wind-avoided CO2 in the EU

• Global Wind and a new climate agreement

• Wind-avoided CO2 outside Europe

Conlusions

EWEA 2020 Scenario – 230GW of EU wind capacity

• Gas, coal and oil plants produce on av. 666 gCO2/kWh

• Wind production avoids2009: 163 TWh 106 Mt CO2

2012: 234 TWh 146 Mt CO2

2020: 582 TWh 333 Mt CO2

• Kyoto Protocol EU target 2008-2012 = 7.8% 450 MtCO2e per year below 1990 emissions

• EU Climate package target by 2020 = 20% 1160 MtCO2e in 2020 below 1990 emissions

More wind – less CO ₂

Source: DG TREN: Trends to 2030 - EWEA, Pure Power (Oct 2009)

EU - Wind power will avoid as much CO2 as...

23% of the EU’s Kyoto target

32% of the EU’s

Kyoto target

29% of the EU’s2020 target

(20%)

2020

2009

2012

EU 2020 - Wind power will avoid as much CO2 as...

29% of EU target

-20% scenario

19% of EU target

-30% scenario

60% offsets in the climate package mean that wind will avoid

73% of EU domestic target

20% scenario

48% of EU domestic target

30% scenario

100% of domestic reductions done by Renewables by 2020 ?

56% RES domestically+ 60% potential offsets= 16% increase in other

sectors?

40% RES domestically

+ 60% potential offsets

= 0% reduction in other sectors?

-30 % Scenario

-20 % Scenario

EU ETS – New wind power (built after 2005) will avoid the equivalent of...

Annual ETS effort in 2020 :2005 emissions = 2177

Mt 2020 target = 1720 Mt2020 ETS effort = 457 Mt

Wind built 2005-2020 = 273 Mt

Wind = 60% of ETS effort1

Wind = 120% of ETS domestic effort1

1. For a 20% target - considering constant electricity consumption

EU 2020 – Wind power versus car emissions

EU 2012 – Wind avoids 146 MtCO2,

eq. to 46 million cars

20% of EU fleet !

EU 2020 – wind avoids 333 MtCO2,

eq. to 168 million cars 80% of EU fleet !

EU fleet - 214 million cars

Outline of presentation

• State of play on Climate

• Wind-avoided CO2 in the EU

• Global Wind and a new climate agreement

• Wind-avoided CO2 outside Europe

Conlusions

At global level - Wind’s contribution to pledges for Copenhagen

Source: UNFCCC Secretariat – FCCC/KP/AWG/2009/10/Add.4/Rev.2

Current UNFCCC pledges

+ USA climate bill: 17% of 2005 emissions

= aggregated Annex I pledges 12%-19% of 1990 emissions

Versus Global Wind in 2020– 1081 GW installed capacity– 2650 TWh produced 1591 Mt CO2 avoided

-22 to 25%

21% of Annex I 2008 Kyoto target

44% of Annex I

2012 Kyoto target

70% of Annex I2020 pledges

(12%)

2020200

9201

2

Annex I - Global Wind in 2020 will avoid…

21% of Annex I 2009 Kyoto target

44% of Annex I

2012 Kyoto target

2020200

9201

2

Annex I - Global Wind in 2020 will avoid…

44% of Annex I2020 pledges

(19%)

Outline of presentation

• State of play on Climate

• Wind-avoided CO2 in the EU

• Global Wind and a new climate agreement

• Wind-avoided CO2 outside Europe

Conlusions

• For a 50% chance to stay below 2°C increase…– Developed countries 25%-40% from 1990

by 2020– Developing countries 15-30% deviation from

BAU

• Projections for 2020 emissions in energy sector (Mt)

USA-China-India – target or deviation from BAU

China India

International Energy Agency (IEA)

9,475 1,818

Energy Info. Admin (EIA, US)

10,004 2,187

University of Grenoble (POLES)

7,551 2,926

Source: World Resource Institute – CAIT GHG Database

28 % of US pledge for 2020

USA - Wind in 2020 will avoid as much CO₂ as

US pledge = 17% from 2005 levels

…20% to 26% of China’s GHG reductions

POLES

EIA IEA

China - 15% from BAU by 2020 (energy)

Wind power can contribute…

POLESEIA IEA

India - 15% from BAU by 2020 (energy)

Wind power can contribute…

…46% to 74% of India’s GHG reductions

• Wind will significantly reduce emissions, both– In industrialised and

– In developing countries

• Wind will deliver a very high share of the reduction effort

Industrialised countries must raise their pledges

More advanced developing countries should consider appropriate reductions from BAU

Conclusion

Thank you very much for your attention

www.ewea.org

RENEWABLE ENERGY HOUSE63-65 RUE D’ARLONB-1040 BRUSSELS

T: +32 2 546 1940F: +32 2 546 1944E: ewea@ewea.org

Additional content

– Additional Climate slides– How a turbine comes together– Economics of Wind– Wind and employment– Wind innovations– EU wind map– Wind pictures

The « Copenhagen Accord » saving climate or saving face?

• What we’ve got:– A stated objective 2°C max. temperature increase… – 2 dubious finance claims

• Fast-start : 40% still missing, most of it not additional• $100bn by 2020: when, who, how, where, for what…

• What we don’t have– No mid- or long term emissions reduction targets – No year for peaking emissions– No CO2 concentration target (i.e. 450ppm)– No roadmap to get any of the above

New institutional framework

• UNFCCC– Cancun: deal or roadmap for further negotiations?– No other appropriate forum

• DG CLIM - Connie Hedegaard– EP audition: « I strongly believe, and Denmark’s

example proves it, that thanks to renewables it is possible to decouple emissions from development »

– Impact Assessment of cost of moving to 30%

• EU Parliament – resolution calling for 30% – “achieve domestic targets through energy savings

and renewable energy sources”