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Situational Awareness Workshop Presented by Killian Forde [email protected] 079 266 749

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Page 1: Workshop Presentation. Final

Situational Awareness Workshop

Presented by Killian [email protected]

079 266 749

Page 2: Workshop Presentation. Final

CONSTITUTION, 1991

President (Head of State &

Commander in Chief)

Judiciary (Nominated by President)

Cabinet (29)

Minister of Local Government

Local Councils (19)

Ward Committees

Chiefdom Councils

Provincial Coordinating Committees

Local Govt Dept MoF

Attorney General/Minister of

Justice

Parliament (Total 124)

Vice President

ELECTORATE

Every 5 years

Every 4 years

Paramount Chiefs (149)

Every 5 years

Chiefs (12)

On death or resignation of sitting Chief 1/20 Taxpayers

Power Structure of Sierra Leone

Page 3: Workshop Presentation. Final

3

Ethnic Map of Sierra Leone

35

31

8

7

5

3

3

3

5

% of Population

Other

Susu

Koranko

Sherbo

Creole

Kono

Limba

Mende

Temne

Page 4: Workshop Presentation. Final

4

Impact of CSO in Sierra Leone

2009

• Women's and human rights groups secure legislation that bans domestic violence and extends women the right to inherit property

• CSOs secure victory from Government who agree to Establish ‘Budget Oversight Committees’ and a more transparent budget process

2008

• Govt, after intensive lobbying and information sharing by CSO included civil society into Poverty Reduction Strategy Program

• Women's group demonstrate in solidarity of UN peacekeeper hostage event

Pre 2007

• As independent arbitrators CSO secure agreement on new electoral system• In depth consultations take place with CSO for new Local Government Act• CSO participate in Lome negotiations

Since end of conflict

• Institutions established include; Anti Corruption Commission, Human Rights Commission, National Commission for Social Action, National Youth Commission, National Action for Social Security and Insurance Trust, National Public Procurement Policy

Page 5: Workshop Presentation. Final

5

Impact of CSO in Sierra Leone

2013• Ten year struggle by CSO for State transparency results in Right to Access Information Act• Commitment by President to reserve 30% of parliamentary seats for women• Gender Equality Bill in Committee stage

2012

• Action for Just Mining campaign gains international traction resulting in a change in the extractive industry tax regime

• CSOs involved in drafting of new Sexual Offences Bill• Code of Conduct Monitoring Committees established by CSOs in partnership with the political parties

2011• Human Rights Commission holds first public meetings against the State• Public outcry over arrest of prominent journalists leads to charges being dropped

2010

• Non aligned media groups secure agreement for and independence of the new SL Broadcasting Company

• HIV laws on transmission reformed

Page 6: Workshop Presentation. Final

6

Civil Society Report Card – 24 IntervieweesGrade Trend

Independence from Government CFreedom of Assembly, Association & Expression CDemocratic Government and Institutions CFunding Availability DCapacity CUtilitarianism BVolunteerism CStrategic Focus ELeadership Pathways DCitizens Participation C

Page 7: Workshop Presentation. Final

7

SL Economic Indices US$2012 2013 2014 2015

GDP $3.78 Billion $4.92 Billion $5.18 Billion $4.21 Billion (Est)

GDP per person $590 $679 $720 $621 (Est)

GDP Real Growth Rate 15.2% 20.1% 6.0% - 12.8% (Est)

CPI Inflation 13.8% 9.8% 8.3% 7.1%

Interest Rate (MPR) 13.2% 12.0% 10.0% 9.5%

Exports $1.1 Billion $1.9 Billion $2.2 Billion $1.3 Billion (Est)

W.B. ‘Doing Business’ Ranking

141 out of 183 140 out of 185 142 out of 189 140 out of 189

Page 8: Workshop Presentation. Final

8

Taxes and Source of Revenue - US$Year Total

Domestic Tax Take

Foreign Grants

% of Tax to Grants

Income Tax % to Total

Goods and Services Tax % to Total

Customs % to Total

Mines % to Total

Roads % to Total

Other % to Total

2009 $750 M $500 M 60% 28% 0% 56% 3% 6% 6%

2010 $1,000 M $543 M 65% 30% 24% 32% 2% 5% 5%

2011 $1,462 M $708 M 67% 32% 24% 23% 14% 2% 5%

2012 $1,940 M $552 M 78% 40% 22% 17% 15% 1% 4%

2013 $2,066 M $613 M 77% 39% 24% 21% 9% 2% 4%

Page 9: Workshop Presentation. Final

9

Economic Map

Page 10: Workshop Presentation. Final

10

Local Government Act 2004

• Councils scrapped in 1972 during one party rule• Centralization was one of root causes of war• Devolution of 80 functions from 17 MDAs to 19 Councils• Before act Chiefs were only link to centre • Local Councils – ‘highest political authority in jurisdiction’• Revenue generation still weak - less than 50% of service delivery• ¼ of health national budget sent to Councils• Tensions continue between Councils and Chiefs on tax collection & allocation

Page 11: Workshop Presentation. Final

11

What Has Been Devolved to LGHealth Sector Food Sector Education Sector WATSAN Sector Protection Sector

Public Health

Information and

Education.

Primary Health care.

Secondary Health care.

Drug Control and

Prevention program.

Crops Division.

Tree and Cash

crop nurseries.

Seed

production/multi

plication.

District Education

Schools.

Primary to mid-

Secondary schools

– JSS III.

SALWACO – Water

supply: Rural water

supply to be run at cost,

not for profit.

Community ownership

of wells.

Bulk supply of water.

Sanitation.

Family Case Work.

Child Welfare.

Gender

issues.

Youth affairs.

Page 12: Workshop Presentation. Final

12

Agenda for Prosperity (A4P) • SL Poverty Reduction Strategy 2013 – 2018

• SL Gov. 2nd poverty reduction plan• Impressive growth pre Ebola• By 2035 - “Sierra Leone aspires to be an

inclusive, green, middle-income country”• 80% over poverty line. 90% literacy. 5%

unemployment. • Gov. recovery plan focused on A4P back on

track• Unanimous donor support for A4P • Projects should enhance or support A4P

outcomes• Be aware of religious, ethnic and political

environ• Proof project objectives against document

Page 13: Workshop Presentation. Final

13

Parl 2002 Pres 2002 Parl 2007 Pres 2007 Parl 2012 Pres 20120%

1000%

2000%

3000%

4000%

5000%

6000%

7000%

8000%

9000%

10000% Party Support in Sierra Leone 2002 - 2012

Page 14: Workshop Presentation. Final

14

‘Big Two’ Support2012 Parliament Elections Support MPs of Sierra Leone 2015

Red – Majority APC votersYellow – Majority SLPP voters

SLPP 42

APC 70

Chiefs 12

Page 15: Workshop Presentation. Final

15

Trends since 2012 Elections

APC• in Bye Elections support• Centralisation of Pres in Party• Increasing involvement in

‘independent’ state supported bodies – e.g. SLFA, IMC, ACC

• Consolidation of power in security services & Judiciary

• Assertive and confident

SLPP

• in Bye Elections support• Difficulty in attracting candidates• Destructive leadership struggle• ‘White Knight’ in Dr Kandeh

Yumkella • Lack of comms strategy• Weak, disillusioned & wounded

Page 16: Workshop Presentation. Final

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Ref on Term Limits

Increased Support with Limba

Separation of Powers Narrowing?

Ministers at his Whim

Ebola Response Shows Leadership

Political Outlook to 2022

President Koroma/APC could be in power for some time…..

Page 17: Workshop Presentation. Final

17

About The Chiefs And Their Power• Not hereditary positions• Chiefs elected term is for life• From 5k to 80k population in chiefdoms• Elections happen upon death or resignation• Suffrage for Chief elections = 1/20

taxpayers• Only ‘Ruling Families’ can stand for election• Influential in votes delivery for President

and Parliament elections• 2009 Chiefs Act – less autonomy• Role as community ‘gatekeepers’• Politics in SL is complex – move cautiously!

If you are not sure – ask national staff!

!

Page 18: Workshop Presentation. Final

18

Constitutional Review Committee

Infrastructure projects highly visible

Donor pledges positive

Ebola not exploited by Opp

Enhanced regional Co-op

Army up skilled, professional and adequately equipped

China as investors

Vibrant (but mixed quality) print and radio media

SLBC - more neutral

Predictable electoral outcomes

Extremely polarized electorate – getting worseOver 60 Const. 70%+ APC or SLPP. 30 are 80%+!!Constitution - too much power in PresidentNo peace or recon process Capacity & allegiance of PoliceElectoral system excludes minorities Inadequate separation of powersPerception of Gov. ‘areas’ better fundedRural area – minimal ‘social contract’One small mercantile class400k young unemployed men

Grow

th &

Sta

bilit

y

Civil Unrest

Sierra Leone – A Very Fragile State?

Term Time Ref

SC rules against VP

Food Prices

Decentralization accelerates and growth resumes

Page 19: Workshop Presentation. Final

19

Observations, Comments or Questions?

[email protected]