wp5.5: the jrc contribution
DESCRIPTION
WP5.5: the JRC contribution. SCOPE - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
WP5.5: the JRC contribution
SCOPEUse the JRC impact model (namely, crop yield forecasting model) by running firstly with appropriately downscaled ERA-40 data (by WP3.1,WP5.1) and secondly with fully downscaled and bias corrected probabilistic ensemble hindcasts at of seasonal-to-decadal scales.
JRC contribution:• Run (with both downscaled data set) the crop yield model on the two main European crops: Wheat , Maize and on EU-25 Countries (according to the data availability)
• Analyze and verify the driven by downscaled ERA-40 results with the existing gridded station data set (by JRC)
• Comparison of the results driven by downscaled and bias corrected probabilistic ensemble hindcasts with the two previous
EC - JRCCROP YIELD
FORECASTINGSYSTEM
DBDBMETEOMETEO
DBDBGRIDGRID
DBDBECMWFECMWFAnalysisAnalysis
DBDBECMWFECMWFForecastForecast
Data quality checkprocedure
I nterpolationProcedure(50*50 km)
Down-scalingProcedure
(0.5°)
ExternalUsers
ExternalUsers
Mappingprocedure
Dailydelivery
I nternalUsers
I nternalUsers
Dailydelivery
International Meteo-stations
Network
International Meteo-stations
Network
other MCYFSprocedures
other MCYFSprocedures
WEB
Legend:Legend:Current fluxCurrent fluxFuture fluxFuture flux
Legend:Legend:Current fluxCurrent fluxFuture fluxFuture flux
Meteorological infrastructure
R2=0.69 - RMSE=3309 kg/HaR2=0.58 - RMSE=3484 kg/Ha
Downscaling improves simulated crop parameters skill
DEMETER experience
DEMETER experience
Probability Density Function (PDF)
Beginning of loweringaverages for grid cells w ith comple te records (28 years )
y = -0.0565x + 127.21R2 = 0.4236
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Years
Beg
inni
ng o
f low
erin
g (d
ecad
e)
BEGINNING OF FLOWERINGBeginning of loweringaverages for grid cells w ith comple te records (28 years )
y = -0.0565x + 127.21R2 = 0.4236
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Years
Beg
inni
ng o
f low
erin
g (d
ecad
e)
BEGINNING OF FLOWERING
Changes of the occurrence of beginning of flowering (decade) per year
Preliminary results on existing data set
- Winter wheat -