© 2015, Fiatech

By: Anirban BasuSage Policy Group, Inc.

April 15th, 2015

The Pit and the PendulumOn Behalf of

Fiatech

© 2015, Fiatech

Dawn of the Dead

© 2015, Fiatech

Real GDP Growth, 20 Fastest and Slowest Growing CountriesProjected 2014, Annual Percent Change (for available nations)Rank Country Region %   Rank Country Region %1 Turkmenistan Central Asia 10.1 169 Netherlands Europe 0.62 Chad Africa 9.6 170 France Europe 0.43 Mongolia Asia 9.1 171 Brazil South America 0.34 Democratic Republic of the Congo Africa 8.6 172 Russia Eastern Europe 0.25 Côte d'Ivoire Africa 8.5 173 Solomon Islands Pacific Islands 0.16 Myanmar Southeast Asia 8.5 174 San Marino Europe 0.07 Mozambique Africa 8.3 175 Italy Europe -0.28 Ethiopia Africa 8.2 176 Finland Northern Europe -0.29 Sierra Leone Africa 8.0 177 Serbia Eastern Europe -0.5

10 China Asia 7.4 178 Barbados Caribbean -0.611 Lao P.D.R. Southeast Asia 7.4 179 Croatia Eastern Europe -0.812 The Gambia Africa 7.4 180 St. Lucia Caribbean -1.113 Tanzania Africa 7.2 181 Argentina South America -1.714 Cambodia Southeast Asia 7.2 182 Equatorial Guinea Africa -2.515 Uzbekistan Central Asia 7.0 183 Iraq Middle East -2.716 Sri Lanka Southeast Asia 7.0 184 Venezuela South America -3.017 Nigeria Africa 7.0 185 Cyprus Europe -3.218 Mauritania Africa 6.8 186 Ukraine Eastern Europe -6.519 Burkina Faso Africa 6.7 187 South Sudan Africa -12.320 Panama Central America 6.6 188 Libya Middle East -19.8

Source: International Monetary Fund, October 2014 WEO Database

© 2015, Fiatech

Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2015 Projected*

MexicoBrazil

Latin America and CaribbeanMiddle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan

India***China

Developing AsiaRussia

Central/eastern EuropeSub-Saharan Africa

Emerging/developing countries**United States

CanadaUnited Kingdom

JapanSpain

ItalyGermany

FranceEuro area

Advanced economies

-5.0% -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0%

3.2%0.3%

1.3%3.3%

6.3%6.8%

6.4%-3.0%

2.9%4.9%

4.3%3.6%

2.3%2.7%

0.6%2.0%

0.4%1.3%

0.9%1.2%

2.4%

Annual % ChangeSource: International Monetary Fund, January 2015 WEO Update*Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during December 8, 2014–January 5, 2015.

© 2015, Fiatech

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-70%

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

Jobs 0.3%

Incomes 4.7%

Profits 61.0%

Housing -6.8%

Stocks 33.5%

Perc

ent c

hang

e sin

ce e

nd o

f 200

7

What Lies Beneath

Source: BEA, BLS, S&P Case-Shiller, Yahoo! Finance *Through June 2014

© 2015, Fiatech

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Median Weekly Earnings, Full-Time U.S. Workers*2000Q4 through 2014Q4

*SA, Constant 1982-1984 dollars (adjusted to CPI-U); Wage and salary workers ages 16+

2000

Q4

2001

Q3

2002

Q2

2003

Q1

2003

Q4

2004

Q3

2005

Q2

2006

Q1

2006

Q4

2007

Q3

2008

Q2

2009

Q1

2009

Q4

2010

Q3

2011

Q2

2012

Q1

2012

Q4

2013

Q3

2014

Q2$320

$325

$330

$335

$340

$345

$350

© 2015, Fiatech

Average Hourly Earnings: Construction WorkersFebruary 2007 – February 2015

Feb-0

7

Oct

-07

Jun-

08

Feb-0

9

Oct

-09

Jun-

10

Feb-1

1

Oct

-11

Jun-

12

Feb-1

3

Oct

-13

Jun-

14

Feb-1

5$10.5

$11.0

$11.5

$12.0

Feb. 2015:$11.4

*1982-1984 Dollars, S.A.Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

© 2015, Fiatech

Source: Moody’s Economy

Recession Watchas of December 2014

© 2015, Fiatech

Source: Pew analysis of U.S. Census Bureau’s quarterly tax revenue data, as adjusted by the Rockefeller Institute of Government

Tax Collections in 2014Q2 vs. Each State’s Peak*Real tax revenue still lower in 29 states since recession

*Adjusted for inflation

© 2015, Fiatech

Industrial ProductionFebruary 2001 through February 2015

Source: Federal Reserve

The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.Feb

-01

Oct

-01

Jun-

02

Feb-0

3

Oct

-03

Jun-

04

Feb-0

5

Oct

-05

Jun-

06

Feb-0

7

Oct

-07

Jun-

08

Feb-0

9

Oct

-09

Jun-

10

Feb-1

1

Oct

-11

Jun-

12

Feb-1

3

Oct

-13

Jun-

14

Feb-1

580

85

90

95

100

105

110

Ind

ex (

20

07

= 1

00

)

(Base year: 2007)

© 2015, Fiatech

Gross Domestic Product1990Q1 through 2014Q4

1990

Q1

1991

Q1

1992

Q1

1993

Q1

1994

Q1

1995

Q1

1996

Q1

1997

Q1

1998

Q1

1999

Q1

2000

Q1

2001

Q1

2002

Q1

2003

Q1

2004

Q1

2005

Q1

2006

Q1

2007

Q1

2008

Q1

2009

Q1

2010

Q1

2011

Q1

2012

Q1

2013

Q1

2014

Q1

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Perc

ent

Change f

rom

Pre

cedin

g P

eri

od

(SA

AR

)

2014Q4: +2.2%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

© 2015, Fiatech

Contributions to GDP Growth by Component 2013Q4 – 2014Q4

Personal Con-sumption

Government Spend-ing

Net Exports Gross Investment-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0 2.5

-0.7

1.10.60.8

-0.2

-1.7-1.1

1.8

0.3

-0.3

2.9

2.21

0.80 0.781.18

2.98

-0.35

-1.03

0.61

Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14

SA

AR

(%

)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

© 2015, Fiatech

Invasion of the Body Snatchers

© 2015, Fiatech-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Th

ou

san

ds

March 2015: +126K

Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLSJanuary 2002 through March 2015

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

© 2015, Fiatech

National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry SectorMarch 2014 v. March 2015

Mining and LoggingInformation

GovernmentOther Services

Financial ActivitiesManufacturing

ConstructionLeisure and Hospitality

Education and Health ServicesTrade, Transportation, and Utilities

Professional and Business Services

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

4597273

150188

282490

541607

662Chart Title

Thousands, SA

All told 3,128K Jobs gained

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

© 2015, Fiatech-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

March-15:-1K

Mon

thly

Net

Ch

an

ge (

t-h

ou

san

ds)

National Construction Employment Monthly Net ChangeMarch 2000 through March 2015

Industry Sector 15-Mar 15-Feb 14-Mar 1-net 12-net 12-%Construction 6,344.0 6,345.0 6,062.0 -1.0 282.0 4.7 Residential Building 691.5 687.8 644.8 3.7 46.7 7.2 Nonresidential Building 723.4 722.8 691.5 0.6 31.9 4.6 Heavy & Civil Engineering Construction 933.7 937.6 904.3 -3.9 29.4 3.3 Specialty Trade Contractors 3,995.1 3,997.2 3,821.8 -2.1 173.3 4.5

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

© 2015, Fiatech

Source: Chart created by Matt Stevens (Stevens Construction Institute) using data from U.S. Department of Labor and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, published by the National Society of Professional Engineers, June 2014.

U.S. Construction Productivity Value of Construction Put in Place per Employee 1993-2013

© 2015, Fiatech

Source: IT Key Metrics Data 2014, Gartner Benchmark Analytics

IT Spending as a Percent of Revenue, By Industry

Construction, etc.

Chemicals

Retail & Wholesale

Consumer Products

Transportation

Insurance

Telecommunications

Healthcare Providers

Media & Entertainment

Software Publishing & Internet Services

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%

1.0%1.1%1.3%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.5%2.6%2.8%3.2%3.2%3.8%4.2%4.2%4.7%5.0%6.3%6.7%3.3%

© 2015, Fiatech

Evidence of a Construction Labor Shortage: Hires v. Job OpeningsFebruary 2012 through February 2015

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Hires Job Openings

12-m

onth

Perc

ent

Change

(SA

)

© 2015, Fiatech

Source: JBKnowledge, 2014 Construction Technology Report

Limits to Adoption*

*Percentages do not round to 100 (respondents could select multiple responses)

Other Responses Time to investigate and approve Data security concerns Data integration and compatibility with existing systems Lacking proof of ROI

Other

NA-We try everything

Employee Hesitation

Management Hesitation

Learning Curve

Maturity of Tech

Lack of Support Staff

Budget

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

4.9%

7.5%

27.4%

32.1%

34.1%

36.1%

36.8%

53.6%

% of Respondents Citing Reason

“What prevents your company from adopting new technology most often”?

© 2015, Fiatech

State-by-state Growth in Construction JobsFebruary 2014 v. February 2015

*Construction, Mining, and Logging are included in one industry.

STATEYear-over-year

Ch. (‘000)STATE

Year-over-year Ch. (‘000)

STATEYear-over-year

Ch. (‘000)

TEXAS 44.6 IDAHO 5.0 CONNECTICUT 0.9CALIFORNIA 43.4 NORTH DAKOTA 4.8 MONTANA 0.9FLORIDA 29.6 OHIO 4.7 ARIZONA 0.8WASHINGTON 18.0 MISSOURI 4.3 NEW MEXICO 0.8COLORADO 16.9 SOUTH CAROLINA 4.3 NEW HAMPSHIRE 0.7NORTH CAROLINA 15.5 ARKANSAS 4.1 VERMONT 0.6NEW JERSEY 14.5 MASSACHUSETTS 3.7 WYOMING 0.4ILLINOIS 13.1 MARYLAND* 3.7 HAWAII* 0.4MICHIGAN 11.8 OREGON 3.3 RHODE ISLAND 0.2NEW YORK 11.4 VIRGINIA 3.3 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA* 0.2UTAH 8.3 NEVADA 3.2 ALASKA 0.1WISCONSIN 7.5 OKLAHOMA 2.7 NEBRASKA* 0.1TENNESSEE* 7.0 KANSAS 2.6 DELAWARE* 0.0IOWA 6.7 LOUISIANA 2.4 MAINE -0.3GEORGIA 6.0 ALABAMA 1.6 WEST VIRGINIA -0.7PENNSYLVANIA 5.8 SOUTH DAKOTA* 1.4 INDIANA -1.5KENTUCKY 5.7 MINNESOTA 1.3 MISSISSIPPI -4.4

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

© 2015, Fiatech

U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 2.3%

Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA)February 2014 v. February 2015 Percent Change

RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %1 UTAH 4.2 17 TENNESSEE 2.2 34 IOWA 1.42 NORTH DAKOTA 4.0 19 WISCONSIN 2.1 34 NEW JERSEY 1.43 GEORGIA 3.8 20 DELAWARE 2.0 34 OKLAHOMA 1.44 FLORIDA 3.5 20 INDIANA 2.0 34 VERMONT 1.45 OREGON 3.4 20 NEW MEXICO 2.0 39 PENNSYLVANIA 1.36 COLORADO 3.3 23 ALABAMA 1.8 39 SOUTH DAKOTA 1.36 IDAHO 3.3 23 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 1.8 41 HAWAII 1.26 NORTH CAROLINA 3.3 23 MARYLAND 1.8 42 NEBRASKA 1.16 SOUTH CAROLINA 3.3 23 NEW YORK 1.8 42 VIRGINIA 1.1

10 CALIFORNIA 3.1 27 MASSACHUSETTS 1.7 44 ALASKA 1.010 NEVADA 3.1 28 CONNECTICUT 1.6 44 LOUISIANA 1.010 TEXAS 3.1 28 OHIO 1.6 46 MISSISSIPPI 0.910 WASHINGTON 3.1 30 KANSAS 1.5 47 NEW HAMPSHIRE 0.814 ARIZONA 2.8 30 MINNESOTA 1.5 47 RHODE ISLAND 0.815 ARKANSAS 2.5 30 MISSOURI 1.5 49 MONTANA 0.716 KENTUCKY 2.3 30 WYOMING 1.5 50 WEST VIRGINIA 0.317 MICHIGAN 2.2 34 ILLINOIS 1.4 51 MAINE 0.0

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

© 2015, Fiatech

U.S. Unemployment Rate February 2015: 5.5%March 2015: 5.5%

Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) February 2015

RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %

1 NEBRASKA 2.7 18 DELAWARE 4.8 35 ILLINOIS 6.0

2 NORTH DAKOTA 2.9 18 WISCONSIN 4.8 35 NEW MEXICO 6.0

3 SOUTH DAKOTA 3.4 20 MASSACHUSETTS 4.9 37 WEST VIRGINIA 6.1

3 UTAH 3.4 21 MAINE 5.0 38 ALASKA 6.3

5 MINNESOTA 3.7 22 OHIO 5.1 38 GEORGIA 6.3

6 IDAHO 3.9 23 KENTUCKY 5.2 38 RHODE ISLAND 6.3

6 NEW HAMPSHIRE 3.9 23 PENNSYLVANIA 5.2 38 WASHINGTON 6.3

6 OKLAHOMA 3.9 25 NORTH CAROLINA 5.3 42 CONNECTICUT 6.4

6 VERMONT 3.9 26 ARKANSAS 5.5 42 NEW JERSEY 6.4

10 WYOMING 4.0 26 MARYLAND 5.5 44 ARIZONA 6.5

11 HAWAII 4.1 26 MISSOURI 5.5 45 SOUTH CAROLINA 6.6

11 IOWA 4.1 29 FLORIDA 5.6 45 TENNESSEE 6.6

13 COLORADO 4.2 30 ALABAMA 5.8 47 CALIFORNIA 6.7

13 KANSAS 4.2 30 NEW YORK 5.8 47 LOUISIANA 6.7

15 MONTANA 4.3 30 OREGON 5.8 49 MISSISSIPPI 7.0

15 TEXAS 4.3 33 INDIANA 5.9 50 NEVADA 7.1

17 VIRGINIA 4.7 33 MICHIGAN 5.9 51 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 7.8Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

© 2015, Fiatech

Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA)February 2015

Rank MSA UR   Rank MSA UR

1Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.0 10

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.5

2Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.1 12

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.8

3Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.3 12

Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.8

4San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.5 14 St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.0

5 Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA 4.8 15Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.1

6Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.9 16

Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.3

7Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.3 17

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.5

7 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.3 18Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.7

9 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.4 19Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.8

10 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.5 20Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.0

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

© 2015, Fiatech

Nightmare on Elm Street

© 2015, Fiatech

15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates April 1995 through April 2015*

Source: Freddie Mac

Apr-

95

Feb

-96

Dec

-96

Oct

-97

Aug-9

8

Jun-9

9

Apr-

00

Feb

-01

Dec

-01

Oct

-02

Aug-0

3

Jun-0

4

Apr-

05

Feb

-06

Dec

-06

Oct

-07

Aug-0

8

Jun-0

9

Apr-

10

Feb

-11

Dec

-11

Oct

-12

Aug-1

3

Jun-1

4

Apr-

15

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

2.93%

3.66%

15-yr30-yr

Rate

*Week ending 4/9/2015

© 2015, Fiatech

U.S. New Home SalesJanuary 1999 through February 2015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Ja SeM

a Ja SeM

a Ja SeM

a Ja SeM

a Ja SeM

a Ja SeM

a Ja SeM

a Ja SeM

a Ja0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

February 2015539K

Th

ou

san

ds,

SA

AR

© 2015, Fiatech

U.S. Housing StartsFebruary 1999 through February 2015

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1 Unit 5 units or more

Th

ou

san

ds,

SA

AR February 2015:

1 Unit: 593K5 Units or more: 297K

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

© 2015, Fiatech

U.S. Homeownership

Q4-1980Q3-1984Q2-1988Q1-1992Q4-1995Q3-1999Q2-2003Q1-2007Q4-2010Q3-201460%

62%

64%

66%

68%

70%

2014 Q4:63.9%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

© 2015, Fiatech

U.S. Private New Multifamily ConstructionFebruary 1993 through February 2015

Feb-9

3

Dec-9

3

Oct

-94

Aug-9

5

Jun-

96

Apr-9

7

Feb-9

8

Dec-9

8

Oct

-99

Aug-0

0

Jun-

01

Apr-0

2

Feb-0

3

Dec-0

3

Oct

-04

Aug-0

5

Jun-

06

Apr-0

7

Feb-0

8

Dec-0

8

Oct

-09

Aug-1

0

Jun-

11

Apr-1

2

Feb-1

3

Dec-1

3

Oct

-14

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$ B

illi

on

s (

SA

AR

)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

© 2015, Fiatech

U.S. Housing Building PermitsFebruary 1999 through February 2015

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1 Unit 5 units or more

Th

ou

san

ds,

SA

AR February 2015:

1 Unit: 620K5 Units or more: 445K

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

© 2015, Fiatech

D.C.

New

Yor

k

Chica

go

Detro

it

Compo

site-20

Bosto

n

Atlant

a

Los A

ngeles

Las V

egas

San F

ranc

isco

Dalla

s

Mia

mi

Denve

r0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

1.3%2.1%

2.5%2.9%

4.6% 4.7% 4.9%5.7% 5.9%

7.8% 8.1% 8.3% 8.4%

12

-Mo

nth

% C

han

ge

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros

January 2015, 12-Month Percentage Change

Source: Standard & Poor’s

© 2015, Fiatech

Source: The American Institute of Architects

Architecture Billings IndexJanuary 2008 through February 2015

Jan-0

8M

ar-

08

May-

08

Jul-08

Sep

-08

Nov-

08

Jan-0

9M

ar-

09

May-

09

Jul-09

Sep

-09

Nov-

09

Jan-1

0M

ar-

10

May-

10

Jul-10

Sep

-10

Nov-

10

Jan-1

1M

ar-

11

May-

11

Jul-11

Sep

-11

Nov-

11

Jan-1

2M

ar-

12

May-

12

Jul-12

Sep

-12

Nov-

12

Jan-1

3M

ar-

13

May-

13

Jul-13

Sep

-13

Nov-

13

Jan-1

4M

ar-

14

May-

14

Jul-14

Sep

-14

Nov-

14

Jan-1

5

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

February 2015: 50.4

© 2015, Fiatech

Nonresidential Construction Put-in-PlaceDecember 2006 through February 2015

Dec-06

Mar-0

7Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-0

8Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-0

9Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-1

0Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-1

1Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-11

Mar-1

2Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-1

3Jun-13

Sep-13

Dec-13

Mar-1

4Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000 PublicPrivate

SA

AR

($bil

lion

s)

Dec. 08: $697.4 billion Feb. 15: $611.6 billion

-12.3%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

© 2015, Fiatech

National Nonresidential Construction Spending by Subsector February 2014 v. February 2015

PowerCommunication

ReligiousPublic safetyHealth careEducational

Highway and streetWater supply

TransportationLodging

CommercialOffice

Conservation and developmentSewage and waste disposalAmusement and recreation

Manufacturing

-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

-17.2-15.5

-10.3-9.6

-4.5-0.6

3.37.4

9.310.4

13.519.019.819.9

22.537.9

12-month % ChangeSource: U.S. Census Bureau

© 2015, Fiatech

Inputs to Construction PPIMarch 2001 – March 2015

Mar

-01

Nov

-01

Jul-0

2

Mar

-03

Nov

-03

Jul-0

4

Mar

-05

Nov

-05

Jul-0

6

Mar

-07

Nov

-07

Jul-0

8

Mar

-09

Nov

-09

Jul-1

0

Mar

-11

Nov

-11

Jul-1

2

Mar

-13

Nov

-13

Jul-1

4

Mar

-15

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

12

-mo

nth

Perc

en

t C

han

ge

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

© 2015, Fiatech

Psycho

© 2015, FiatechGasoline Stations

Electronics & Appliance StoresGeneral Merchandise Stores

Food & Beverage StoresClothing & Clothing Accessories Stores

Furniture & Home Furn. StoresInternet, etc. Retailers

Miscellaneous Store RetailersHealth & Personal Care Stores

Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music StoresMotor Vehicle & Parts Dealers

Building Material & Garden Supplies DealersFood Services & Drinking Places

-30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0%

-22.0%-1.9%

0.3%2.5%2.7%3.8%3.9%4.0%4.9%5.1%5.2%6.3%

7.7%

12-month % change

Sales Growth by Type of Business March 2014 v. March 2015*

*March 2015 advanced estimateSource: U.S. Census Bureau

© 2015, Fiatech

Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators IndexAugust 2007 through February 2015

Source: Conference Board

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

On

e-m

on

th P

erc

en

t C

han

ge

February 2015 = 121.4 where 2010 = 100

© 2015, Fiatech

Tell-Tale Heart• Economy gained momentum

over the course of last year;

• Tailwinds included booming stock market, lower gasoline prices, stabilizing global economy, and consumer expenditures on interest rate sensitive durable goods like autos;

• The current year is associated with greater certainty regarding monetary policy – that helps;

• The world is not perfect - black swan threats remain: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe (4) contagion (5) cyber (6) EMP;

• Market is nervous, but perhaps for the wrong reasons; and

• More people benefit from lower oil prices than are hurt – more contractors and developers are helped than hurt – frankly, low oil prices just don’t make me that nervous.

© 2015, Fiatech

Thank YouCo

ntac

t & M

ore

Info

rmati

on

• Follow us on Twitter @SagePolicyGroup• You can always reach me at

abasu@sagepolicy.com• Please look for updates of information at

www.sagepolicy.com.• Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at

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