Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy

in 2030 and 2050Mark W. Rosegrant

Environment and Production Technology DivisionIFPRI

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 2

AcknowledgmentsThis work was supported by the Global Futures & Strategic Foresight (GFSF) project. GFSF is a CGIAR initiative led by IFPRI and funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM); and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS).

Co-authorsTimothy B. Sulser, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Shahnila Islam, Sherman Robinson, Keith Wiebe, and Mark W. Rosegrant

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 3

Outline Africa on the Rise and Moving Forward IMPACT Model and Climate Change to 2050 Outlook to 2030 and 2050• Production

• Demand

• Net Trade

• Prices

• Food Security

Conclusion

05/03/2023 4

AFRICA ON THE RISE AND MOVING FORWARD

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 5

Favorable environment for growth and poverty reduction in the face of series of global economic crises

Somewhat isolated from global economy; but growth is also testament to resilience of African economies (even if not with extraordinary growth like in South and East Asia)

Per capita GDP • Grew at 2% per year in the decade leading up to 2012 across all of

Africa• Current average across Africa at the threshold of “middle-income”

classification (according to World Bank’s WDI)• Eastern and central Africa lag behind with many low-income nations• Northern and southern regions mostly represented by stronger

middle-income economies• Western Africa leading at more than 4% per capita GDP growth

Africa on the Rise

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 6

Indicators of economic health - advances in reducing prevalence of undernourishment

Northern and Southern Africa - effectively achieved MDG of halving prevalence of undernourished children

Other regions dealing with persistent challenges; average across Africa at about 20%

Africa: Undernourished Children

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 7

Better progress in general population - much steeper declines in trends

Improving by 0.5 percentage points per year in the decade leading up to 2012 across most Africa

Africa: Undernourished Population

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 8

Growth in African economies rooted in strong expansion of the agriculture sector

Value-added growth for agriculture more than 5% for all Africa

Performance varies at country level: from -4% up to +13% annual growth

Though agriculture contributes decreasing share to African economy over time, it remains a cornerstone for advances and development

Africa: Agriculture

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 9

Promising outlook for agricultural and economic development for the coming decades based on IPCC SSP2 scenario

Per Capita GDP (1,000 US$, constant year 2005) 2010 2030 2050East Asia & Pacific 8.8 22.3 35.4South Asia 2.7 7.0 13.9Latin America & Caribbean 10.0 16.9 25.9World 9.8 17.3 25.2Northern Africa 6.2 12.3 22.2Western Africa 1.7 3.9 8.6Central Africa 1.2 2.4 5.6Eastern Africa 1.2 2.6 6.1Southern Africa 4.8 7.9 12.0

Expected trends in per capita GDP to 2030 and 2050 show strong growth in per capita GDP in South and East Asia though lower than in recent past

Africa projected to have strong growth rates comparable to Asia—3.6 percent annual growth

Africa: Moving Forward

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 10

Under these strong GDP growth projections nearly all of Africa becomes middle income by 2050

2010 2030 2050

No Data Low

Low-Middl

e

High-Middl

eHigh

Projected changes to World Development Indicators income status

Africa: Moving Forward

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 11

Quantitative models helpful for focus on foresight into key trends and developments over the medium and long-term

International Food Policy Research Institute’s (IFPRI’s) International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) a partial equilibrium agriculture sector model designed to examine alternative futures for global food supply, demand, trade, prices, and food security

Africa: Moving Forward

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 12

IMPACT model allows both fundamental, global baseline projections of agricultural commodity production and trade and malnutrition outcomes along with cutting-edge research results on quickly evolving topics such as bioenergy, climate change, changing diet and food preferences, and many other themes

Brief explanation of IMPACT; extensive documentation on the model and applications in the future scenarios analysis found via the IMPACT website

http://www.ifpri.org/program/impact-model

Africa: Moving Forward

05/03/2023 13

IMPACT MODEL AND CLIMATE CHANGE TO 2050

Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050

IMPACTAgricultural

supply/demand

IMPACT Global Hydrological

Model

IMPACT Water Simulation

Model

DSSAT Crop Models

Climate Forcing

Effective PPotential ET

IRW

Irrigation Water Demand & Supply

Crop Management

WATER STRESS

Pop & GDP growth

Area & yield growth

Food Projections• Crop area /

livestock numbers, yields, and production

• Agricultural commodity demand

• Agricultural commodity trade and prices

• Under-nourishment

• Risk of hunger

Water Projections• Water demand and supply for domestic, industrial,

livestock and irrigation users• Water supply reliability

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 14

IMPACT Model Schematic

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 15

Africa’s Basins

IMPACT Model – 62 commodities; spatially disaggregated

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 16

Climate change directly affects crop yields, then prices and demand Climate impact on Africa’s crop yields predominantly negative

Regional-Level Effects North Africa sees broadest range of

impacts; potentially positive yield changes for roots and tubers to extremely negative impact on rainfed oilseed production

West, central, and southern Africa consistently negative yield impacts across all crops

Eastern Africa has potential to some positive yield impacts in roots and tubers and pulses

Commodity-Level Effects Cereals projected to most consistent

decline across Africa (5% to 20% compared with NoCC in 2050)

Oilseeds and fruits and vegetables also negatively hit across Africa, severity depends on region

Except eastern Africa, pulses see up to 10% decline in rainfed yields by 2050 compared to NoCC

Climate Change to 2050: Effects on Crop Yields

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 17

Different climate models show varied precipitation patterns; mixed water stress effects across the landscape

Rainfed agriculture dominant in Africa showing more widespread and dramatic effect due to the inability to smooth out water consumption

In some rainfed systems, stress will be so great that production will be severely curtailed unless there is a significant adjustment to production practices (e.g. investment in irrigation expansion in Morocco)

Climate Change to 2050: Water Stress Effects

05/03/2023 18

OUTLOOK FOR AFRICA TO 2030 AND 2050

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 19

Cereals - most severe global impacts of climate change on prices: 25% increase compared to NoCC in 2050; 50% higher than 2010

Meat - relatively modest 5% impact (indirect) of CC

Cereals Meats

Indexed Global Prices

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 20

Roots & Tubers

Fruits and vegetables, pulses, and roots and tubers: 9% to 12% increase with CC in 2050 (about 30% above 2010 levels)

Importance of price changes depend on integration with world markets; Opportunity for exporters; Challenge for net consumers

Pulses

Indexed Global Prices

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 21

Cereals growing strongly at 2% p.a. to 2030, slowing to 1% afterwards CC reduces production 6% to 12% by 2050 for Africa except in East Slower meat demand growth outside of Africa means increasing share of

global production; CC impacts only indirect and small

Cereals Meats

Production

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 22

Roots & Tubers

West Africa lead regional producer of pulses and roots and tubers Africa produces about 20% and 30% of total global pulses and

roots and tubers, respectively; most not exported; pulses and roots & tubers not strongly affected by CC

Pulses

Production

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 23

Total demand increasing significantly due to income and population growth

Demand for cereals, oilseeds, and roots and tubers will more than double by 2050

Pulses and fruits and vegetables will triple

Meat demand starting from relatively low base will nearly quadruple by 2050

Total Demand (2010 – 1.0)

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 24

Staples - differentiated preferences across Africa while non-staples consistently increasing per capita demands, especially meat

Several trends for cereals: declining in north; leveling off in western and southern; increasing in central and eastern (where per capita levels low)

Cereals Meats

Per Capita Demand

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 25

Roots and tubers:• Declining consumption where demands traditionally higher (western and central)• Increasing where it may represent dietary diversification (northern, eastern, and

southern) Pulses (and other foods) are strongly increasing everywhere

Roots & Tubers Pulses

Per Capita Demand

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 26

Demands not matched with production, leading to big increase in imports

Cereals Meats

Net Trade

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 27

Roots and tubers trade spread more evenly across Africa by 2050, with the exception of North Africa

Trade in pulses thin; may be locally important, but globally insignificant In rare cases, Africa’s comparative advantage leads to consistent net export

positions (e.g. fruits and vegetables from North Africa)

Roots & Tubers Pulses

Net Trade

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 28

PC KCAL Share at Risk of Hunger

Consistent increasing calorie availability in the NoCC; negative climate change impact similar to other across the globe

Optimistic scenario in Africa, shows strong improvement in food security

Food Security

05/03/2023 29

CONCLUSION

If the strong GDP and agricultural growth in the baseline can be sustained, large improvements in food security will be achieved

Key policies to achieve this success include increased investment in agricultural research, enhanced on-farm management, and higher investment in rural infrastructure

Emphasis on crop and livestock breeding (including biotechnology) targeting abiotic and biotic stresses

Water harvesting, precision agriculture, minimum tillage, integrated soil fertility management, integrated pest management, reduction of post harvest losses

Conclusion

05/03/2023 Africa in the Global Agricultural Economy in 2030 and 2050 31

Rural infrastructure investment to improve access to markets, information, credit, inputs, mobile phone towers

Complementary investments in healthcare, education and social safety nets

With strong GDP growth, the agriculture sector will slowly decline in size relative to other sectors, but remains critically important for employment and income growth in rural regions where majority of poor reside

Conclusion