dr. mark rosegrant
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Experts, decision-makers part of the audience attended a presentation by Dr. Mark Rosegrant whose presentation projected onto the next 40 years and highlighted what the world food demand will be by 2050. He also focused on the case of sub-Saharan Africa and Senegal.The other highlight of the conference was the presentation by Dr. Alioune Fall, Scientific Director of ISRA on “Future implications of high food demand for agricultural research”. Dr. Fall listed the various projects conducted at the national level by his organization, one of the drivers of Senegalese agriculture. ITA, (the National Food Processing Institute) was represented by Dr Ndoye who made a presentation on: “the dynamics of urban consumption and their impact on processing technology of local products”.Comments where then given by representatives of USAID, the World Food Program, and ASPRODEB (Senegalese farmer organizations NGO) and were followed by discussions.The press was also present at this quarterly “Development and Strategy” conference series- that focuses on socioeconomic development-organized by IFPRI, IPAR, FASEG the DAPS, and the DPEE ANSD.TRANSCRIPT
Food Supply and Demand and Food Security in Africa to 2050
Mark W. RosegrantDirector
Environment and Production Technology Division
IFPRI-Dakar OfficeJanuary 21, 2013
www.ifpri.org
Outline Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food
Security Baseline Projections of Supply, Demand
and Food Security Irrigation Potential and Constraints in
Africa Technology Potential in African Agriculture Conclusions and Policy Implications
www.ifpri.org
Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security
Demand drivers• Population in Africa will double to 2 billion
people in 2050• Urbanization in Africa:
2010 = 36% urban; 2050 = 57% urban• Income growth• Biofuels and bioenergy• GHG mitigation and carbon sequestration • Conservation and biodiversity
www.ifpri.org
Supply drivers• Water and land scarcity• Climate change• Investment in agricultural research• Science and technology policy• Management and governance reform
Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security
Baseline Projections of Supply, Demand and
Food Security
www.ifpri.org
Flow Chart of IMPACT Model
www.ifpri.org
Africa Regions Regions Countries
Eastern Africa Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Somalia, Uganda, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe
Western Africa Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo
Northern Africa Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia
Southern Africa Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland
Central Africa Angola, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, DRC, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon
www.ifpri.org
Annual Average Growth in GDP, Baseline Projections between 2010 and 2050
EastAsia
Pacific
EuropeCentra
lAsia
LatinAmeric
aCaribbean
MiddleEastN
orthAfri
ca
South
Asia
SubSa
haranAfri
ca
Developed
Developing
World
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Perc
ent G
row
th R
ate
per Y
ear
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
www.ifpri.org
Annual Average Growth in GDP in Africa, Baseline Projections between 2010 and 2050
Eastern
Africa
Northern
Africa
South
ernAfri
ca
Weste
rnAfri
ca
CentralA
frica
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Perc
ent G
row
th R
ate
per Y
ear
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
www.ifpri.org
Annual Average Growth in Per Capita GDP, Baseline Projections between 2010 and 2050
EastAsia
Pacific
EuropeCentra
lAsia
LatinAmeric
aCaribbean
MiddleEastN
orthAfri
ca
South
Asia
SubSa
haranAfri
ca
Developed
Developing
World
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Perc
ent G
row
th R
ate
per Y
ear
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
www.ifpri.org
Annual Average Growth in Per Capita GDP in Africa, Baseline Projections between 2010 and 2050
Eastern
Africa
Northern
Africa
South
ernAfri
ca
Weste
rnAfri
ca
CentralA
frica
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
44.5
Perc
ent G
row
th R
ate
per Y
ear
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
www.ifpri.org
Annual Average Growth in Population, Baseline Projections between 2010 and 2050
EastAsia
Pacific
EuropeCentra
lAsia
LatinAmeric
aCaribbean
MiddleEastN
orthAfri
ca
South
Asia
SubSa
haranAfri
ca
Developed
Developing
World
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Perc
ent G
row
th R
ate
per Y
ear
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
www.ifpri.org
Annual Average Growth in Population in Africa,
Baseline Projections between 2010 and 2050
Eastern
Africa
Northern
Africa
South
ernAfri
ca
Weste
rnAfri
ca
CentralA
frica
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Perc
ent G
row
th R
ate
per Y
ear
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
www.ifpri.org
World Cereal Yields Annual Average Growth Rate
Maize Rice Soybeans Wheat0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1970-1990 (FAO) 1990-2010 (FAO) 2010-2050 (IMPACT Baseline)
Perc
ent G
row
th R
ater
per
Yea
r
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
www.ifpri.org
Cereal Yields – Africa Regions Annual Average Growth Rate, 2010 - 2050
Eastern
Africa
Northern
Africa
South
ernAfri
ca
Weste
rnAfri
ca
CentralA
frica
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.61.8
Perc
ent G
row
th R
ate
per Y
ear
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
www.ifpri.org
Source of Cereal Production Growth, 2010 - 2050
EastAsia
Pacific
EuropeCentra
lAsia
LatinAmeric
aCaribbean
MiddleEastN
orthAfri
ca
South
Asia
SubSa
haranAfri
ca
Developed
Developing
World-20
020406080
100120
Area Expansion Yield Improvement
Perc
ent C
hang
e
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
www.ifpri.org
Total Crop Area by Africa Regions-Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050
CentralAfrica EasternAfrica NorthernAfrica SouthernAfrica WesternAfrica0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2010 2050
Mill
ion
Hec
tare
s
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
www.ifpri.org
Total Irrigated Area by Africa Regions-Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050
CentralAfrica EasternAfrica NorthernAfrica SouthernAfrica WesternAfrica0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2010 2050
Mill
ion
Hec
tare
s
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
www.ifpri.org
Percent Change in World Prices of Cereals between 2010 and 2050
Rice Wheat Maize Other Grains
Soybeans Sorghum0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Perc
ent C
hang
e
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
www.ifpri.org
Percent Change in World Prices of Meat between 2010 and 2050
Beef Pork Lamb Poultry0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Perc
ent C
hang
e
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
www.ifpri.org
Africa Cereal Production-Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050
EasternAfrica NorthernAfrica SouthernAfrica WesternAfrica CentralAfrica0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2050
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
www.ifpri.org
Africa Meat Production-Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050
EasternAfrica NorthernAfrica SouthernAfrica WesternAfrica CentralAfrica0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010 2050
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
www.ifpri.org
Africa Per Capita Cereal Demand-Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050
EasternAfrica NorthernAfrica SouthernAfrica WesternAfrica CentralAfrica0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2050
Kg p
er C
apita
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
www.ifpri.org
Africa Per Capita Meat Demand-Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050
EasternAfrica NorthernAfrica SouthernAfrica WesternAfrica CentralAfrica0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010 2050
Kg p
er C
apita
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
www.ifpri.org
Africa Net Trade Cereals-Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050
EasternAfrica NorthernAfrica SouthernAfrica WesternAfrica CentralAfrica
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
2010 2050
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
www.ifpri.org
Africa Net Trade Meat-Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050
EasternAfrica NorthernAfrica SouthernAfrica WesternAfrica CentralAfrica-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
2010 2050
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
www.ifpri.org
Per Capita Kilo Calorie Avialability in Africa - Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050
EasternAfrica NorthernAfrica SouthernAfrica WesternAfrica CentralAfrica0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2010 2050
Kilo
calo
ries p
er p
erso
n pe
r day
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
www.ifpri.org
Population at the Risk of Hunger – Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050
Developing SubSaharanAfrica0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2010 2050
Mill
ions
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
www.ifpri.org
Population at the Risk of Hunger – Africa Baseline Projections, 2010 and 2050
EasternAfrica NorthernAfrica SouthernAfrica WesternAfrica CentralAfrica0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2010 2050
Mill
ions
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
Irrigation Potential and Constraints in Africa
www.ifpri.org
Methodology for regional scale analysis of irrigation potential
Data analysis & modeling tools Key steps
1. Ex-ante analysis
2. Predictive modeling at river basin level
GIS
Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
Dynamic Research EvaluAtion for Management (DREAM) 3. Indicators
— cost-benefit— environmental impact
Potential increase in gross revenue per hectare from small-scale irrigation
Source: IFPRI 2010
Potential large-scale and small-scale based irrigated areas, alternative IRR levels
Source: IFPRI 2010
www.ifpri.org
Message 1: Fix what is brokenPercentage of irrigation-equipped area not actually irrigated
0102030405060708090
100
Gui
nea
Gui
nea-
Biss
auSo
uth
Afri
caZa
mbi
aTu
nisi
aM
adag
asca
rM
auri
tius
Mor
occo
Burk
ina
Faso
Bots
wan
aEg
ypt
Keny
aCô
te d
'Ivoi
reG
hana
Swaz
ilan
dN
iger
Chad
Togo
Nam
ibia
Alge
ria
Seyc
hell
esN
iger
iaM
ali
Zim
babw
eCo
ngo,
Dem
. Re
p.Li
byan
Ara
b …
Cape
Ver
deCo
mor
osU
gand
aEr
itre
aSe
nega
lCe
ntra
l Afr
ican
…M
auri
tani
aG
ambi
a, T
heM
alaw
iAn
gola
Suda
nD
jibo
utiM
ozam
biqu
eSo
mal
iaBe
nin
Cong
o, R
ep. o
fLe
soth
o
Source: Adapted from FAO AQUASTAT
www.ifpri.org
Message 2: Location-bound large-scale potential
Dam type Investment expenditure
Internal rate of return
Increase in irrigated area
(US$ million) (%) (hectares)
Operational 16,299 7.16 8,351,423
Rehabilitated 1,954 11.32 1,000,944
Planned 13,465 5.27 6,899,376
Total 31,718 6.61 16,251,744
Source: IFPRI 2010
www.ifpri.org
Message 3: Small-scale irrigation: widespread, more profitable, but sensitive to cost
Cost type Investment expenditure
Internal rate of return
Increase in irrigated area
(US$ million) (%) (hectares)
Low 24,315 104.00 15,785,617
Medium 21,835 27.00 7,340,964
High 1,969 9.00 321,727Source: IFPRI 2010
www.ifpri.org
Message 4: Need to keep investment costs low to improve viability
Large scaleSource: IFPRI (2010)
02468
101214161820
10,000 8,000 6,000 3,000 1,000Unit cost per ha ($/ha)
Irriga
ted a
rea in
creas
e (mi
llion h
a)Ir
rigat
ed a
rea
incr
ease
(mill
ion
ha)
Unit cost per ha ($/ha)
www.ifpri.org
Message 4: Need to keep investment costs low to improve viability
Small scaleSource: IFPRI (2010)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
600 2000 5000Unit cost per ha ($/ha)
Irrig
ated
area
incr
ease
('00
0 ha
)Ir
rigat
ed a
rea
incr
ease
(mill
ion
ha)
Unit cost per ha ($/ha)
Technology Potential in African Agriculture
www.ifpri.org
Technology Assessment Scope
Global & Regional Ten Technologies Three Crops
• Wheat• Rice• Maize
• Zero Tillage• Integrated Soil Fertility
Management• Irrigation Technologies• Water Harvesting• Drought Tolerance• Heat tolerance• Nitrogen Use Efficiency• Precision Agriculture• Laser Land Leveling• Organic Agriculture
www.ifpri.org
DSSAT – Crop Modeling System
www.ifpri.org
Management Scenarios Baseline • Site-specific baseline inorganic fertilizer application rate • Furrow/flood irrigation, where irrigation is adopted• Sub-optimal planting density and sub-optimal planting window• Conventional tillage• Representative varieties for latitude x altitude zones
Technology scenarios• Specific representation of each technology• Area of adoption in 2050 depends on technology
Climate change scenario in 2050• MIROC A1B (without CO2 fertilization)
Yield change (%), Regional effect in 2050 (MIROC A1B)
Conclusions and Policy Implications
www.ifpri.org
Increasing agricultural productivity: agricultural research, on-farm management, and rural investment• Emphasis on crop and livestock breeding (including
biotechnology) targeting abiotic and biotic stresses• Water harvesting, precision agriculture, minimum
tillage, integrated soil fertility management, integrated pest management, reduction of post harvest losses
• Rural infrastructure investment to improve access to markets, information, credit, inputs, mobile phone towers
Agricultural Productivity Policy
www.ifpri.org
Increased investment in large and small-scale irrigation, and irrigation technology (drip, micro-sprinkler, real-time management)
Reduce subsidies that distort production decisions and encourage water use beyond economically appropriate levels• Fertilizer, energy, water subsidies• Savings invested in activities that boost farm
output and income
Irrigation Policies
Analyses of strategies and policies for sustainable agricultural intensification
Analysis and valuation of the environmental externalities and services provided by agricultural production systems and practices, and analysis of policies for promoting positive environmental effects from agriculture
Models and scenario analysis on food, land, water, and energy use for developing sustainable agricultural intensification policymaking
Decision-support tools for sustainable agricultural intensification, applied across scales from household/micro level to national/macro
Directions for Future Research