role of genetically modified crops in future global supply, demand and prices of food: overview mark...

Role of Genetically Modified Crops Role of Genetically Modified Crops in Future Global Supply, Demandin Future Global Supply, Demand

and Prices of Food: Overviewand Prices of Food: Overview

Mark W. Rosegrant Mark W. Rosegrant and and Anthony CavalieriAnthony CavalieriEnvironment and Production Technology DivisionEnvironment and Production Technology Division

Delivering Agricultural Biotechnology to African Farmers:Delivering Agricultural Biotechnology to African Farmers:Linking Economic Research to Decision MakingLinking Economic Research to Decision Making

Organized by: IFPRI, UNCST, ScifodeOrganized by: IFPRI, UNCST, ScifodeEntebbe, UgandaEntebbe, UgandaMay 19-21, 2009May 19-21, 2009

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

OutlineOutline

A World of Growing Food ScarcityA World of Growing Food Scarcity

Biotechnology for Poor FarmersBiotechnology for Poor Farmers

Constraints to the Use of Constraints to the Use of Agricultural BiotechnologyAgricultural Biotechnology

Conclusions and Policy OptionsConclusions and Policy Options

A World of Growing A World of Growing Food ScarcityFood Scarcity


Hunger and Malnutrition: Hunger and Malnutrition: Developing WorldDeveloping World

Page 6

Data source: FAO 2006; 2008

Number of hungry people in millionsNumber of hungry people in millions

Global Price of Maize:Global Price of Maize:Baseline and Without Climate Change, 2000-2050Baseline and Without Climate Change, 2000-2050

Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations for HadCM3/SRES B2 scenario Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations for HadCM3/SRES B2 scenario (with IMAGE temperature and CO2 fertilization effects, April, 2008) (with IMAGE temperature and CO2 fertilization effects, April, 2008)

Baseline No climate change


Contributing Factors to Future ScarcityContributing Factors to Future Scarcity

Rapid income growthRapid income growth

Underinvestment in agricultural Underinvestment in agricultural productivity and technologyproductivity and technology

Water and land scarcity, biofuelsWater and land scarcity, biofuels

Climate change Climate change

High energy prices—high input and High energy prices—high input and transport coststransport costs

Population growth and urbanizationPopulation growth and urbanization


Per Capita Meat Consumption, Per Capita Meat Consumption, 2000-20502000-2050

20

11

28

83

58

11

13

24

4

19

0 20 40 60 80 100

CWANA

SSA

ESAP

NAE

LAC

kg/person per year

2000 2000-2050

Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections, Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections, SeptemberSeptember 2007 2007


Sources of Cereal Production Growth, Sources of Cereal Production Growth, projected, 2000-2050projected, 2000-2050

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

LAC ESAP SSA CWANA NAE

An

nu

al G

row

th R

ate

s 2

00

0-2

05

0area expansion yield improvement

Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections, Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections, SeptemberSeptember 2007 2007

Biotechnology for Biotechnology for Poor Farmers?Poor Farmers?


What do Farmers in Developing What do Farmers in Developing Countries Need?Countries Need?

Improved yieldsImproved yields

Nutritional enhancementNutritional enhancement

Abiotic and biotic stress tolerance Abiotic and biotic stress tolerance

leading to stable yields and productionleading to stable yields and production


Opportunities with Non-biotech Opportunities with Non-biotech TechnologyTechnology

Existing technologies Existing technologies • Efficient irrigationEfficient irrigation• Fertilizer useFertilizer use• Modern, high yielding Modern, high yielding

varietiesvarieties• HybridsHybrids

Preferred to biotech when:Preferred to biotech when:• Solve important problemsSolve important problems• Attract investmentAttract investment• Cost efficientCost efficient

http://www.ars.usda.gov/images/docs/3498_3682/surface_drip03jun.jpg

http://aspenlandscapes.com/picts/drip-irrigation-stake-placing.jpg


Opportunities with BiotechnologyOpportunities with Biotechnology

Can we define the place of Can we define the place of biotechnology in contributing to biotechnology in contributing to productivity and food security?productivity and food security?

• Tools to support traditional breeding Tools to support traditional breeding (molecular markers, tissue culture (molecular markers, tissue culture diagnostics etc)diagnostics etc)

• Transgenics where variation doesn’t exist Transgenics where variation doesn’t exist in the crop (e.g. drought, heat and salinity in the crop (e.g. drought, heat and salinity tolerance, insect and disease resistance) tolerance, insect and disease resistance) and the cost of development is justified by and the cost of development is justified by the resulting cultivarsthe resulting cultivars


Can Biotechnology Address Can Biotechnology Address Developing Country Needs?Developing Country Needs?

Experience in developed worldExperience in developed world

Experience in developing worldExperience in developing world

Research investmentResearch investment

Scientific capacity in developing Scientific capacity in developing countriescountries

Progress in plant scienceProgress in plant science

IFPRI modeling resultsIFPRI modeling results


Experience in developed worldExperience in developed world

Broad experience with transgenics in US Broad experience with transgenics in US and Canada and Canada

Four crops: Four crops: • MaizeMaize• SoybeansSoybeans• CottonCotton• CanolaCanola

Two traits: Two traits: • Bt – Bt – Bacillus thuringiensisBacillus thuringiensis• RR – Roundup ReadyRR – Roundup Ready


Experience with GM in developing worldExperience with GM in developing world

Global Area of Biotech Crops, 1996 to 2008:Global Area of Biotech Crops, 1996 to 2008:Industrial and Developing Countries (mil ha)Industrial and Developing Countries (mil ha)

Source: Clive James, 2009


Pipeline for traits: Pipeline for traits: Either currently available or in developmentEither currently available or in development

Soybean and MaizeSoybean and Maize• YieldYield• Nutrient-use efficiencyNutrient-use efficiency• Abiotic stress toleranceAbiotic stress tolerance• Disease and insect resistanceDisease and insect resistance

Oil Palm, Cassava, and SugarcaneOil Palm, Cassava, and Sugarcane• Abiotic stress toleranceAbiotic stress tolerance• Disease and insect resistanceDisease and insect resistance



Bt Insect ResistanceBt Insect Resistance

Brinjal (eggplant)Brinjal (eggplant)

CowpeaCowpea

RiceRice

CottonCotton

MaizeMaize

Other traitsOther traits Vitamin A sorghumVitamin A sorghum

Golden RiceGolden Rice

Fungal resistant Fungal resistant bananabanana



Source: Min. of Agriculture GOI



Yield Increase 31-90%

Reduction in insecticide sprays

39-75%

Profit Increase/ha 76-250%

Summary of public evaluation of Summary of public evaluation of Bt cotton in India Bt cotton in India

(7 studies)(7 studies)

Source: James 2007


R&D investment in biotechnologyR&D investment in biotechnology

Public R&D Annual Spending

(US$ million)

Private R&D Annual Spending (US$ million)

Wheat Maize Wheat Maize

<$200 <$100 <$200 ~$1500

Source: Maize: Company and public organization websites. Wheat: Hans Braun CIMMYT, Pers. Comm.

Large sums of money are available for crop Large sums of money are available for crop improvement when there is a return on the improvement when there is a return on the investmentinvestment

Significant activity on biotechnology in the Significant activity on biotechnology in the public sector that will result in products in the public sector that will result in products in the coming yearscoming years



Willingness of private companies to Willingness of private companies to make IP and technology available make IP and technology available

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/8/88/GoldenRice-WhiteRice.jpg/280px-GoldenRice-WhiteRice.jpg

• Syngenta: Golden RiceSyngenta: Golden Rice

• Monsanto: Drought Monsanto: Drought resistant maize for Africaresistant maize for Africa

• DuPont: Nutritional DuPont: Nutritional enhancement of sorghum enhancement of sorghum for Africafor Africa

http://www.africanews.com/documents/18/2c/182c7b1a72a23fe19371d6038b8be22f.article.jpg

http://www.africancrops.net/rockefeller/crops/sorghum/pics/rattunda-sorghum2.jpg



Growing public effortsGrowing public efforts

• Bt cowpea (USAID)Bt cowpea (USAID)

• Bt maize (Syngenta Foundation)Bt maize (Syngenta Foundation)

• Bt cotton (Government of India)Bt cotton (Government of India)

• Golden RiceGolden Rice


Current progress in plant scienceCurrent progress in plant science

Scientific progress: reasons for optimismScientific progress: reasons for optimism

• Underlying common molecular biology and Underlying common molecular biology and biochemistry for all cropsbiochemistry for all crops

• High through-put technologies for molecular High through-put technologies for molecular breeding, gene discovery, and manipulationbreeding, gene discovery, and manipulation

• Uses of genomic sequence informationUses of genomic sequence information– Molecular markersMolecular markers

– Gene discoveryGene discovery

• High level of spending for medical High level of spending for medical applicationsapplications

• Complete genome sequences for several Complete genome sequences for several cropscrops



Source: Edgerton 2009 Plant Physiol. 148:7-13



Source: Edgerton 2009 Plant Physiol. 149: 7-13


Projected Effect of GM on food pricesProjected Effect of GM on food prices

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Price

($/m

t)

Rice

Baseline Zero-GMO

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Price

($/m

t)

Maize

Baseline Zero-GMO

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Price

($/m

t)

CassavaBaseline Zero-GMO

GM lowers GM lowers price of cropsprice of crops

Source: IFPRI IMPACT ModelSlide 38

Constraints to the Use of Constraints to the Use of Agricultural BiotechnologyAgricultural Biotechnology


What are the Constraints? What are the Constraints?

Limited profit opportunities in Limited profit opportunities in developing countriesdeveloping countries

Too long term, expensive, and Too long term, expensive, and controversial for public sectorcontroversial for public sector

Public-sector research tends to be Public-sector research tends to be project based and subject to fashions project based and subject to fashions in funding in funding

Complex product developmentComplex product development


What are the Constraints?What are the Constraints?

Limited infrastructure and established Limited infrastructure and established seed systems in developing countriesseed systems in developing countries• Timely production of adequate foundation Timely production of adequate foundation

seedseed• Hybrid seed productionHybrid seed production• Appropriate promotion of new varietiesAppropriate promotion of new varieties• Seed costsSeed costs• Market distortions caused by government Market distortions caused by government

seed companiesseed companies Delivery issues for non-transgenic Delivery issues for non-transgenic

modern high-yielding varietiesmodern high-yielding varieties



RegulatoryRegulatory

• Lack of systems and capacity in Lack of systems and capacity in many developing countriesmany developing countries

• High costHigh cost

• Long term nature of environmental Long term nature of environmental risksrisks

Product stewardship Product stewardship

• Challenges for public sectorChallenges for public sector



Organized, highly effective opponents Organized, highly effective opponents of technology motivated by concerns of technology motivated by concerns about:about:

• RisksRisks

• TechnologyTechnology

• MultinationalsMultinationals

• TradeTrade

• Etc.Etc.

Conclusions and Conclusions and Policy OptionsPolicy Options


ConclusionsConclusions

Biotechnology can contribute to food Biotechnology can contribute to food production and security in developing production and security in developing countries.countries.

Traits in the development pipeline will Traits in the development pipeline will have greater value for poor farmers.have greater value for poor farmers.

Rapid advancement of the science of Rapid advancement of the science of biotechnology applied to crop plants is biotechnology applied to crop plants is refining the necessary tools.refining the necessary tools.



Acceptance and demand by farmers has Acceptance and demand by farmers has driven large scale adoption of transgenic driven large scale adoption of transgenic cropscrops

• This includes adoption in large-scale This includes adoption in large-scale crops in major markets.crops in major markets.

• It also includes illegal adoption preceding It also includes illegal adoption preceding regulatory approval.regulatory approval.

• Development of crops with traits of value Development of crops with traits of value to consumers or food companies would to consumers or food companies would further advance acceptance and adoption.further advance acceptance and adoption.



Public sector development of Public sector development of transgenic cropstransgenic crops

• Long term nature of product developmentLong term nature of product development

• Dependence on short term, project based Dependence on short term, project based fundingfunding

• Limited seed systems for delivery of Limited seed systems for delivery of productsproducts


Science Policies to Enhance the Benefits Science Policies to Enhance the Benefits of Biotechnology for the Poorof Biotechnology for the Poor

Provide advanced molecular marker tools Provide advanced molecular marker tools and IT support for breeding programs in and IT support for breeding programs in crops of importance to poor farmerscrops of importance to poor farmers

• Large-scale crop improvement effortsLarge-scale crop improvement efforts

• Initiated by the private sector with policy and Initiated by the private sector with policy and financial support, e.g. joint Indian DBT and financial support, e.g. joint Indian DBT and USAID fundingUSAID funding

Explore policies that allow access to Explore policies that allow access to patented basic tools of genetic engineering patented basic tools of genetic engineering (transformation, gene expression etc) to (transformation, gene expression etc) to developing country scientistsdeveloping country scientists



Enable developing-country access to patented Enable developing-country access to patented genes (Bt, drought resistance, nitrogen use genes (Bt, drought resistance, nitrogen use efficiency) through innovative IPR, licensing, efficiency) through innovative IPR, licensing, and market segmentationand market segmentation• Combined with efforts to address stewardship, Combined with efforts to address stewardship,

liability, and control issues for the two points aboveliability, and control issues for the two points above

Make genome sequencing capacity in Make genome sequencing capacity in developed countries available to developing developed countries available to developing world scientists to sequence most world scientists to sequence most important developing world crops (cassava, important developing world crops (cassava, teff)teff)



Develop stronger collaborations for Develop stronger collaborations for collecting and preserving land races and collecting and preserving land races and wild relatives of crops specieswild relatives of crops species• Svalbard Global Seed Vault is a start Svalbard Global Seed Vault is a start • Policies would need to address the concerns Policies would need to address the concerns

countries about protection of the genetic materialscountries about protection of the genetic materials

Training of developing country scientists in Training of developing country scientists in US or EU labsUS or EU labs• Upon return to their home countries scientists Upon return to their home countries scientists

are on their own with little funding, follow-up or are on their own with little funding, follow-up or incentives for doing research incentives for doing research

• Programs from donors in the developed world Programs from donors in the developed world should address these issuesshould address these issues


Potential Initiatives for Developing CountriesPotential Initiatives for Developing Countries

Focus on supporting the development of Focus on supporting the development of the private sector in those crops where the private sector in those crops where there are potential markets there are potential markets

• InfrastructureInfrastructure

• Reasonable regulatory regimesReasonable regulatory regimes

• TransparencyTransparency

• IP protectionIP protection

• Capital for start upsCapital for start ups

• Reduced hurdles to forming businesses Reduced hurdles to forming businesses

role of genetically modified crops in future global supply, demand and prices of food: overview mark...

Documents

food security

economic research

policy optionspage

demandand prices of

developing countriesprogress

ifpri impact projections

ifpri impact simulations

agricultural productivity