6987264 nava bharat india

8/9/2019 6987264 Nava Bharat India

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Nava Bharat Ventures Lt

Nava Bharat Ventures Ltd (NBVL) is into diversified business with interes

power generation, ferro alloys, sugar and its down stream products

infrastructure. Nava Bharat is a leading producer / exporter of ferro alloys

200,000 TPA (tonnes per annum) in overall manufacturing capacity. Nava Bh

also undertakes production of sugar and has 3500 TCD (tonnes crushed per

plant at Samalkot. The company has total installed power generation capacit

121 MW, which is being expanded, to 237 MW in next 2 years. We expect

topline and bottomline to grow at CAGR of 33% and 32% respectively in com

two years.

Investment Highlights

Captive / Merchant Dynamics The operations of the Company for the year 200

were characterized by a progressive shift in favour of power business as compare

ferro alloy business. The Company, while continuing to comply with the Ca

Power regulations, was able to effect merchant sale of power through short-t

open access.

NBVL is increasing its power generating capacity from 121 MW to 237 MW.

covers setting up a 32 MW thermal unit at existing Andhra Pradesh, addition o

MW generation capacity at Kharagprasad facility and 20 MW co-generation fac

at its new sugar operation at Andhra Pradesh.

De-risking its business model As the company is getting into power business

dependence on ferro alloys business will come down and contribution of revenue

power business is expected to go up to 47% from the current 37% in the ne

years. This value shift will enable the company to improve its bottomline.

Huge value in land holding NBVL is venturing into infrastructure business in a

way through the SPV route. It has bid for the metro rail projects (MRTS

Hyderabad, a national highway project in Madhya Pradesh and an industry spe

special economic zone (SEZ) project.

Valuation & Recommendation

SOTP valuation indicates a 45% upside At the current market price of Rs 178 NBVL is trading at 6.9x FY08E earning

Rs 25.9 and 4.9x FY09E earnings of Rs 36.3. With robust expansion plans in

power segment and expected revenue CAGR of 33% over the next 2 years, we

extremely positive on growth visibility. As per SOTP valuation – (based on FY 2

earnings estimate), we recommend a BUY with target price of Rs 262.

Particulars FY06(A) FY07(A) FY08(E) FY09(E)

Net Sales 4396.6 5530.3 7339.1 9783.6PBIDT 602.3 1502.7 2337.5 3217.8

PBIDT(%) 13.7 27.2 31.9 32.9

PAT 580.1 1404.7 1755.6 2458.0

PAT(%) 13.2 25.4 23.9 25.1

EPS (Rs.) 8.6 20.7 25.9 36.3

ROCE(%) 22.6 22.7 22.5 25.3

ROE(%) 13.2 31.0 25.8 23.8

P/Ex 20.8 8.6 6.9 4.9

EV/EBIDTAx 23.1 9.2 5.5 3.3

Source : Company, India Capital Markets Research

Financial Snapshot (Rs mn)

ekha Ahuja

[email protected]

EL +91-22-6777 6777

Initiating Covera

Se tember 13,

India Capital Markets Pvt. Ltd. Nava Bharat Ventures L

Nava Bh arat Ventures Ltd

BUY

CM P Rs.178 Target Rs.262

STOCK DATA

Sensex 15505

Nifty 4497

Bse Code 513023

Nse Code NBVEN TU RES

Bloom berg Code N BVL IN

Reuters Code NFER.BO

No of Shares 67.7 m n

Mkt Cap Rs 12059.5 mn

52 wk H i / Low Rs.211/83

Avg Daily Vol(W kly) 83248

Face Value Rs2.00

Stock Performance (% )

3M ths 6M ths 1Year

Absolute -2 97 62

Relative -6 78 27

Price Movements Vs Sensex

SHARE HOLDING PATTERN

FII/FIs/MFs

7%

Non Promoter

10%

Public

37%Promoter

46%




Company Profile

Nava Bharat Ventures Ltd originally called Nava Bharat Ferro Alloys (NBFA) began its opera

with manufacture of ferro silicon in 1975 at Paloncha in Andhra Pradesh. Over the years,

capacity was enhanced by installing additional smelters at the same location and by setting

green field smelter in Orissa. Thus, NBFA emerged as one of the largest manufacturer exporte

ferro alloys supported by 100% captive power, in India. NBFA diversified into production of S

and by products in 1980. In 1997, the company commenced Generation of Thermal Power, mfor captive use and subsequently enhanced its capacity. In fact, today it is supplying power to

grid as well. In 2005, the Company forayed into Infrastructure Projects along with Malaxmi G

Pvt. Ltd to set up an infrastructure development company - Malaxmi NBFA Ventures Pr

Limited to implement large projects in power, transportation and urban infrastructure.

The name of the company was then changed to Nava Bharat Ventures Limited (NBVL) in

2006.

Subsidiaries

The company has three subsidiaries viz, Kinnera Power Company Limited, Brahmani Infratech

Limited, and a wholly owned subsidiary in Singapore called Nava Bharat (Singapore) PTE Lim

which is into trading of ferro alloys. NBVL’s subsidiaries currently do not contribute much to

bottomline of the company.

Business Segments

Ferro Alloys

NBVL manufactures manganese, silicon and chromium alloys, which are essential inputs

manufacture of steel. NBVL's manufacturing plants are located in Andhra Pradesh and Orissa.

This Ferro Alloy Plant located at Paloncha in Khammam district of Andhra Pradesh has t

smelters of 16.5 MVA capacity each and one smelter of 27.6 MVA capacity . This plant prod

ferro manganese and silico manganese with a total output capacity of 1,25,000 tonnes per ann

The Company’s second Ferro Alloy Plant located at Kharagprasad village in Orissa, operates

smelters of 22.5 MVA capacity each and produces ferro chrome with a total output capaci

75,000 tonnes per annum.

The Company produced 77,568 MT of manganese alloys and 26,664 MT of chromium alloys

sold 81,104 MT of manganese alloys and 22,279 MT of chromium alloys including conversio

2007.

Exports – Ferro Alloys

The company has been exporting Ferro alloys to Belgium, Italy, Japan, Korea, Netherlands, C

Turkey, USA & Thailand and has successfully entered new markets in Spain, Peru, PortugalUK during 2006-07.

N am e o f the subsid ia ry P lace o f In corpo ra tio n % ho ld in g

N ava B h ara t (S ingapore P te L td ) S in gapore 100 .0 0

B rahm an i In fra tech P vt L td Ind ia 51 .0 0

K innera P ow er C om pan y L td Ind ia 98 .6 2

Source :Company




Power

NBVL has a power generation capacity of 121 MW which it plans to ramp up to 237 MW

company has set up pit head, coal based Thermal Power Plants in Andhra Pradesh and Oris

supply the power required by its Ferro Alloy Smelters and sell surplus power to utilities

power plants are set up with eco-friendly technology and short gestation periods and are ope

at Plant Load factor (PLF) of 89%. The company plans to ramp up its power generation cap

to around 1287 MW in the next 4-5 years.

The deficit scenario in the power sector is unlikely to be bridged in the foreseeable future

does not envisage any problem on dispatch of surplus power for merchant sale.

Expansion Programme

Plants Type Start Date Capex

Current

Post

Expansion (Rs mn)

Paloncha, AP 82 114 Coal based Sep-07 800

Kharagprasad, Orissa 30 94 Coal based Jan-08 1800

Samalkot,AP 9 29 Bagasse Jan-08 1000

Source: Company

Capacity (MW)

Sugar & bio fuels

The Company operates a modern, energy efficient, 3500 tonnes crushed per day (tcd) SPlant located at Samalkot in coastal Andhra Pradesh and close to Visakhapatnam and Kak

seaports for exports. It also has 6-mn litre distillery and a 9 MW cogeneration power plant

quality of sugar produced is at par with that of refined sugar with 26 to28 ICU

(International Commission for Uniform Methods of Sugar Analysis) colour. This seg

currently contributes around 16% to the topline, which is expected to go down with the sh

business focus. NBVL is marketing 1 kg packs of sugar under the brand name “Deccan” i

retail market.

During the year 2006-07, NBVL crushed 4,70,758 MT of sugarcane yielding an ave

recovery of 10.21% compared to the crushing of 4,37,457 MT at an average recovery ra

10.71% in the previous year.

The operations of the 9 MW bagasse based power generation Unit and distillery operation

part of the year helped the Company to mitigate the reverses suffered in the sugar business.Division contributed positively during the year under review despite adverse situations prev

in the industry.

Infrastructure

Brahmani Infratech Pvt Ltd.- BIPL, one of the subsidiaries of NBVL, looks after Infrastru

division. NBVL currently holds 51% stake in BIPL and 26% is held by Malaxmi. The compa

looking for partners for the remaining stake. The offers from interested developers and e

size are yet to be frozen.

BIPL has secured High Way Concession, a SEZ developmental right (250-acre IT and

SEZ) and coal linkage for setting large power venture. It is also a short listed party for M

project for Hyderabad. The company also possesses 68-acres of land in Secunderabad wh

expects to get ULC (Urban Land Clearances) waiver.

The value of the land comes to approximately Rs 4590 mn, taking the value of Rs 20 mn/

for 250-acre land (where the company holds 51% stake) and Rs 30 mn/ acre for 68-acre lan

The company hopes to contain the

average cost of production, net o

earnings from by-products to be

ess than the levy price so as not to

ncur losses in this segment.




Investment Rationale

Captive/ Merchant Dynamics

The company plans to ramp up its power division, to mitigate the risk from ferro alloy divi

which is cyclical in nature. Due to price fluctuation in ferro alloy business, there is a lot of

in the margins in this segment. The cost of manganese went up by 63% this year as compare

last year.

Electricity Act 2003 provided the required impetus to the Captive Power Generator

exempting them from license requirements. This resulted in a spurt in captive capacity addit

by industrial units. Reliability of power supply and better economics are the other factors

have encouraged industries to opt for captive generation.

Going forward, power is going to be a major growth driver. Company has been exporting po

on a short-term, inter-state basis and is all set to take advantage of emerging opportunitie

power starved scenario. There has been spurt in power tariffs with peak demand showing

signs of abatement.

Expansion plan of Rs 3.6 bn

The company is expanding total capacity of its coal based and bagasse fuelled plant from 12

MW to 237 MW in the next 2 years. The total expansion will be done at a capex of Rs 3600

million. This will give a further boost to the power segment. Contribution from power sector

total revenues is expected to be 48% in FY09 from the current 37%.

1050 MW power plant to come up by 2011

This will happen in three phases of 350 MW each and will be operational by 2011. The t

project outlay is estimated at Rs 46 bn and is funded through mix of debt and equity of 75

The company has raised capital through FCCB to the extent of yen 6 bn, part of which wi

utilized for this expansion. The rest of the amount for the given expansion will be fun

through debt and internal accruals. Nava Bharat Ventures currently holds 74% of the t

stake, which it plans to bring down to 51% while Malaxmi group holds the balance 26%.

Ferro alloy segment expected to do well

Ferro alloy realization is expected to be in the range of Rs 40000 to Rs 45000 in the

quarter for manganese alloys while for Chrome at around Rs 48000. The company suppliethe leading domestic steel producers, including Essar Steel. The capacity expansion of the

companies would drive the demand for ferro alloys.

BVL power generation capacity to

crease from 121 MW in 2007 to

round 1287 MW by 2011




Sector Overview

Ferro Alloy

Ferro alloy is the key raw material for the production of steel. The sector has an annual capaci

3mn tones of bulk and noble ferro alloys, which serve as vital inputs for various types of steel.

30% of India’s ferro alloy production is exported, earning annual revenues of Rs 15bn.

Though the industry was spared the high volatility witnessed in the previous two years, the ferro aoperations for 2006-07 witnessed positive performance on a rebound of Ferro alloy prices and n

significant volatility in cost of ores in the last quarter of the year 2006-07.

The Global production of Ferro Alloys is concentrated in four key countries: China, Ukraine, S

Africa and India. Internationally, Silico Manganese is largely consumed by China, Japan, Ukr

and India. India's per capita consumption of steel is perceptibly lower than that in China and o

emerging markets, indicating good demand potential. The ferro alloy industry can therefore, loo

higher demand going forward.

Most of the ferro alloy players are small and medium scale producers with operational capacities

are closely linked to price movements. World ferro alloy prices are determined by large produce

South Africa, Brazil and Ukraine on a quarterly basis through negotiation with global steel units.

The global steel industry is in its long-term growth phase aided by a steady world growth and expe

to experience a CAGR of 5-6% in the next 5 years.

Power

Large target has been proposed in the XI five-year plan 2007-12 for power transmission (increa

inter regional capacity from 9000 MW to 37150 MW) and power generation (capacity additio

around 86500 MW).

Power generation is critical to infrastructure of a country. India has one of the lowest electr

consumption levels in the world. Despite generation capacity growing almost 100 fold since 1

supply has continuously trailed behind demand, with an average gap of 8%. The total p

generation capacity of India is 149,642 MW as at the end of July 2007. The estimated cap

addition during the 11th Five Year Plan is 67.68 GW and the total investment is expected t

US$100 bn.

To put this in perspective, in the next five years India plans to add capacity equivalent to about 5of the capacity added in the last 55 years. India currently faces a Peak Power Deficit of about 12

or 10,831 MW.

The Electricity Act 2003 provided the required impetus to the Captive Power Generator

exempting them from license requirements. This resulted in a spurt in captive capacity addition

industrial units.

The Government has announced the National Electricity Policy, which aims at acceler

development of the power sector to provide supply of electricity to all areas. All these initiatives

going to provide momentum to the company.

Actual power supply position (mn units)

FY Requirement Availability Deficit Deficit (%)

2002 522,537 483,350 (39,187) (7.50)

2003 545,983 497,890 (48,093) (8.81)

2004 559,264 519,398 (39,866) (7.13)

2005 591,373 548,115 (43,258) (7.31)

2006 631,024 578,511 (52,513) (8.32)

Source: Ministry of Power Annual Report

erro alloy price movement 2007

A capacity addition of ove

100000 MW by 2012 is

required to bridge the growing

supply deficit




Sugar

A bearish sentiment prevailed in this business segment during most of the previous year owing to

glut of sugar in India and abroad.

The move to ban export of sugar by the Central Government resulted in large inventory positio

across industry. The ISO (International Sugar Organisation) had in February, 2007 pegged the glo

supply surplus at around 9 million tonnes this season, compared with its previous forecast of 7

million made in February. Realisation per tonne has gone down to Rs 12000 as compared to 18000 a year ago.

World Sugar Balance (in mn tonne)

2006-07 2005-06 Total Change % change

Production 162.6 152.1 10.542 6.93

Consumption 153.5 149.9 3.647 2.43

Surplus / Deficit 9.1 2.2

Import demand 44.4 46.7 -2.238 -4.79

Export availability 47.5 46.7 0.803 1.72

End Stock 65.8 59.8 6.061 10.14

Stock/consumption ratio (%) 42.9 39.9

Source: ISO

Risks and Concerns

1. Fluctuation in the price of ferro alloys makes it highly volatile. The commodity cycle of th

ferro alloy industry has its attendant risks and concerns, which the Company is well aware.

2. The company does not have power purchase agreement (PPA) in merchant sales. Any fall

the traded power rates will adversely affect the company.

3. Over supply of sugar and consequent drop in realization with no attendant, drop in cane pric

could throw the industry out of gear in the current year.

4. Management bandwidth, occupancy risks would characterize the infrastructure sector, which

presently hit by squeeze on credit and higher interest costs.




Financials

Strong performance in Q1 FY08

Net Sales surged 59% to Rs 1762.9 mn in Q1 FY08 as compared to Rs 1111.4 mn in Q1 FY07.

subsequent Operating Profit accelerated 123% to Rs 719.1 mn in Q1 FY08 compared to Rs 32

mn in Q1 FY07. The resultant Profit after Tax jumped 70% to Rs 579.7 mn in Q1 FY08

compared to Rs 341.8 mn in Q1 FY07.

During FY2007, Net Sales grew by 25.79% to Rs. 5530 mn as compared to Rs 4397 mn mainl

by 75.2% growth in power business to Rs. 2645.8 mn (Rs.1509.9 mn). Operating Margin impr

significantly to 24% (12.4%) due to increase in PBIT of power business to 51.9% (45.8%).

zoomed by 181.9% to Rs.1360 mn. After accounting for a lower extraordinary income of Rs.10

mn relating to final insurance claim in FA plant (Rs.170.8 mn), PBT (after extraordinary items)

up by 123.7% to Rs. 1461 mn. A lower tax rate of 3.7% (10.7%) spurted PAT by 142.1%

Rs.1404.6 mn.

Earnings Growth

Earnings growth for the company is mainly expected to come from its power division with 116

of planned capacity addition in the next 2 years. The share of power business is expected to ris

47% in FY09 from the current 37% and revenue from this segment is expected to grow by 23%

74% in FY08 and FY09 respectively, while revenue from Ferro alloy segment is expected to gro

30% and 17% in FY08 and FY09 respectively. EBIDTA margin for power is expected at aro55% and for Ferro Alloy it is expected at around 15% for FY08. Overall, EBIDTA marg

expected to be around 32%.

Segmentwise Revenue

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2007 2008E 2009E

Year

R e v e n u e ( i n m n )

Ferro Alloys Power Sugar

Source: Company, India Capital Markets Research

Raised capital through FCCB

The company has raised capital through FCCB to the extent of yen 6-bn convertible at Rs 132

per share, part of which is to be utilized for expansion of 1050 MW power plant. Total equity

dilution comes to ~88 mn which includes ~0.6 mn ESOPs granted to employees and ~2.3outstanding warrants issued to promoters. The company has already converted 40% of the FCCB

plans to convert the rest by 2009.




Valuation & Recommendation

SOTP valuation indicates a 45% upside At the current market price of Rs 178 NBVL is trading at 6.9x FY08E earnings of Rs 25.9

4.9x FY09E earnings of Rs 36.3. With robust expansion plans in the power segment

expected revenue CAGR of 33% over the next 2 years, we are extremely positive on gr

visibility. As per SOTP valuation – (based on FY 2009 earnings estimate), we recommend a

with target price of Rs 262

FY2009E Ferro Power Su

EBIDTA 778.3 2358.5 8

Less: Interest (in the ratio of capital Employed) 62.5 139.9 2

Less: Depreciation (in the ratio of capital Employed) 129.6 289.8 4

PBT 586.1 1928.9 1

Less : Tax @ 11% 64.5 212.2

Segmental PAT 521.7 1716.7 1

No of shares (post dilution) 87.0 87.0 8

Diluted EPS (Rs) 6.0 19.7

PER 9.0 10.5

Segmental target price (Rs) 54.0 207.2

Total Target Price (Rs)Source : India Capital Markets Research

(Rs m




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INDIA CAPITAL MARKETS PVT. LTD.

11/13, Botawala Building, Office no 4-5, 1st floor, Horniman Circle, Mumbai - 400 001.Tel : 67776777 Fax : 67776889 Email : [email protected]

Nava Bh arat Ventures

(Rs. m n) (YE M arch) FY2006 FY2007 FY2008E FY2009E FY2006 FY2007 FY2008E FY20

N et Sales 4396.6 5530.3 7339.1 9783.6 Cost AnalysisGrowth (% ) 7.8 25.8 32.7 33.3 Raw M aterial/Sales 48.97% 36.28% 35.00% 34.

Raw m aterials 2152.9 2006.3 2568.7 3375.3 Pow er and Fuel/Sales 14.26% 13.79% 12.00% 11.

Pow er & Fuel exp 627.1 762.8 880.7 1125.1 M anufaturing cost/Sales 9.19% 7.44% 7.20% 7.M anufacturing exp 404 411.4 528.4 704.4 Em ployee Cost/Sales 3.84% 3.57% 3.70% 3.Em ployee cost 168.9 197.5 271.5 357.1 Selling & A dm in Exp 9.61% 10.42% 9.50% 9.Selling & Adm in Exp 422.7 576.3 697.2 929.4 O ther Expenses 0.43% 1.33% 0.75% 0.O ther Expenses 18.7 73.3 55.0 74.4 Return Ratios (% )

T otal O pe ra tin g E xp en se s 37 94.3 40 27.6 50 01.6 65 65.7 EBID TA 13.70 27.17 31.85 3EBID TA 602.3 1502.7 2337.5 3217.8 PBT 14.86 26.43 26.97 2

M argins (% ) 13.7 27.2 31.9 32.9 PA T 13.19 25.40 23.92 2

Interest 149.3 189 211.5 225 Adj PA T 9.23 23.56 23.92 2D epreciation 183.2 224.5 330.2 466.3 RoCE 22.56 22.68 22.50 2O ther Incom e 383.4 372.3 183.5 244.6 RoE 13.22 31.01 25.82 2

PBT 653.2 1461.5 1979.3 2771.2 Growth Ratios (%)Tax 73.1 56.84 223.7 313.1 N et Sales 7.76 25.79 32.71 3

PA T 580.1 1404.7 1755.6 2458.0 EBID TA -58.85 149.49 55.55 3M argins (% ) 13.2 25.4 23.9 25.1 PA T -51.01 142.14 24.99 4

Extra ordinary Item s 174.2 101.6 0.0 0 Adj. PA T -67.27 221.03 34.73 4EO A dj. PA T 405.9 1303.1 1755.6 2458.0 Per Share data

M argins (% ) 9.2 23.6 23.9 25.1 EPS 8.56 20.73 25.91 3EPS 8.6 20.7 25.9 36.3 EPS A dj 5.99 19.23 25.91 3FV 2 2 2 2 CEPS 8.70 22.55 30.79 4

Cash and Bank/share (Rs.) 5.29 42.54 43.17 5BV 45.33 62.02 100.37 15

(Rs. In Crore. YE M arch) FY2006 FY2007 FY2008E FY2009E DPS 0.18 4.00 4.59Valuation Ratios (x)

Equity Capital 133.7 135.5 155.3 176.4 PE 20.79 8.59 6.87Reserves and Surplus 2937.5 4066.1 6644.7 10130.0 CPE 20.47 7.89 5.78Shareholders funds 3071.2 4201.6 6800.0 10306.4 EV/M arket Cap 1.15 1.15 1.07

Secured Loans 2077.7 2284.9 2200.0 2200.0 EV/Sales 3.16 2.51 1.76U nsecured Loans 107 2431.7 1551.1 300.0 EV/EBIDTA 23.05 9.25 5.51Total Loans 2184.7 4716.6 3751.1 2500.0 EV/A dj PA T 34.21 10.66 7.34

Deferred Tax Liability 198.4 195.3 195.3 195.3 CM P/BV 3.93 2.87 1.77Capital Em ployed 5454.3 9113.5 10746.5 13001.7 Dividend Payout (% ) 2.13 19.29 17.69 1

Dividend Yield (% ) 0.10 2.25 2.58Gross Block 4691 4743.7 78 34.3 86 34.3

Less: Depreciation 1257.9 1418.2 1748.4 2214.6 Turnover RatiosN et Block 3433.1 3325.5 6085.9 6419.7 Sales/Total A ssets (x) 1.24 1.65 1.46

CW IP 49.7 870.6 300.0 1000.0 Sales/N et FA (x) 1.28 1.66 1.21Investm ents 21.8 16.4 17.5 17.5 RoA - Du Pont Analysis 7.44 14.30 16.34 1

Inventory 1293.8 1404.9 1809.6 2412.4 Inventory turnover (days) 107 93 90Receivables 497.1 409.3 603.2 670.1 D ebtors turnover (days) 41 27 30C ash and Bank 358.5 2882.3 2924.5 3937.5 Payable turnover (days) 48 58 75

Loans and A dvances 521.8 1372.3 880.7 1044.0 W ork. Cap. Turn (days) 162 323 216Current A ssets 2671.2 6068.8 6218.0 8064.0

Payables 579.6 873.8 1508.0 2010.3 Other Key RatiosO ther Liabilities and Prov. 141.9 294 367.0 489.2 D ebt-Equity Ratio 0.71 1.12 0.55

Current Liabilities 721.5 1167.8 1875.0 2499.5 Debt- A ssets Ratio 0.40 0.52 0.35N et Current A ssets 1949.7 4901.0 4343.0 5564.5 Current Ratio (x) 3.70 5.20 3.32M isc. Expenses not w/o 0 0 0.0 0.0 Quick Ratio (x) 1.91 3.99 2.35Capital D eployed 5454.3 9113.5 10746.5 13001.7 Interest Cover (x) 5.38 8.73 10.36 1Source : Compan y, India Capital Markets Research

Balance Sheet

Incom e Statem ent Ratio Analysis

Note: We have not considered the value of the land and 1050 MW Orissa power plant in our valuation of NBVL.

6987264 nava bharat india

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