AIM\ENDUSE Model with Application for India

P.R. Shukla

AIM/ENDUSE Model Structure

Global economic trendsPopulationEconomic assumptionsResource supplies

Global and

feed

back

supp

orte

d

Change demands

New technologiesTech. changes

Econ. Instruments

RegionalAssumptions

Asian-PacificSocial,Economic

G I SEnvironmental

and

ScenariosReduction

AdaptationScenarios

vulnerability

detection andreduction of

GCMExperiments

AIM/emission model

Global consistency & ROW model

Asian-Pacific regional model

AIM/impact model Global to regional scale down

Regional climate impactsWater resourcesAgricultureForest resources, etc.

Higher order impacts on Regional economies

Land-use Energy end-use

Global mean climate change model

AIM/climate model

Country model

Global GHG cycle model

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) Structure

Structure of the AIM/End-Use Model

Energy Energy Technology Energy Service

- Oil- Coal- Gas- Solar- (Electricity)

- Boiler- Power generation- Blast furnace- Air conditioner- Automobile

- Heating- Lighting

- Steel products- Cooling- Transportation

Energy Database Technology Database

- Employees- Lifestyle

- Energy type- Energy price- Energy constraints- CO2 emission factor

- Technology price- Energy consumption- Service supplied- Share- Lifetime

Socio-economic Scenario

Technology Energy ConsumptionCO2 Emissions Service Demand

- Industrial Structure- Economic Growth- Population Growth

Socio-Economic Scenarios

GHGs Emissions

CroplandPastureForest

Biomass FarmOther Land

Land Input

GDP

AIM/ Climate Model

AIM/ Impact Model

Bottom-up Model

Feedback

Land Equilibrium Model

OtherInputs

GDP

Goods &ServiceDemand

Goods &ServiceSupply

Endo Use Energy

Efficiency

IndustrialProcessChange

ExploitationTechnology

EnergyConversionTechnologyEfficiency

End UseTechnology

End UseTechnologyEfficiency

Energy-Economic Model

ResourceBase

EnergyResource

Population Resource Base Lifestyle

IndustrialProduction

FoodConsumption

PatternTechnology

ChangeSocialEnergy

Efficiency

PopulationGDP

EnergyServiceDemandSocialEnergy

EfficiencyChange

PrimaryEnergySupplyFinal

EnergySupply

Final Energy

Demand

Energy PriceGoods and

Service Price

AIM/Emission-Linkage

Population

EnergyConversionTechnology

BiomassEnergy

Demand

AIM/ Emission Model Linkages

Iron and Steel, Cement, Petrochemical, Pulp and Paper, Miscellaneous

Sectors and sub sectors

Energy

Conversion

Sectors Sub sector

City Gas Production, Oil Refining, Electric Power Generation

Cooling and Heating, Hot Water Supply, Lighting, Buildings, Locomotion, etc.

Passenger Transport, Freight Transport

Cooling and Heating, Hot Water Supply, Lighting, Buildings, Locomotion, etc.

Industrial

Residential

Commercial

Transportation

Coal

Sinteringmachine

Blastfurnace

Caster

Reheatingfurnace

Reheatingfurnace

Annealingfurnace

Hot rolledsteel products

Hot rolledsteel products

Cold rolledsteel products

Scrap

Iron ore Limestone

Coke

Blast furnacegas

Basic oxygenfurnace gas

Hotmetal

Slabs,blooms,billets

Purchased cokePurchased

Cokequenchingequipment

Smeltingreductionfurnace

Electricity

ZSS

flow of heatflow of electricity

Terminal

Terminal

Terminal

Terminal

Terminal

Heat

Heat

: external energy

Legend

: service device : final service

: internal energy/service

electricity

Coke ovenHotcoke

Sinter

Molten steel

Basicoxygenfurnace

Power device

Electric arcfurnace

flow of other internal energy/service

flow of external energyand related goods

Power device

Utility

Cokeoven gas

Independentpower plant

Terminal

An example of sub-model structure(Japanese iron-steel industry)

Table Technologies used in the steel industry

Without Coke Adjustment EquipmentCoke Wet Adjustment Equipment

Molten Steel Production

Coke Wet Type QuenchingCoke Dry Type Quenching

Without Top Pressure Recovery TurbineWet Top Pressure Recovery TurbinesDry Top Pressure Recovery Turbines

Basic oxygen FurnaceElectric Arc FurnaceDirect Iron Ore Smelting Reduction Furnace

Conventional Coke OvenNext Generation Coke Oven

Coke Production Coke Quenching

Blast Furnace

Coke Adjustment

Process Technology

AIM/ENDUSE Model Application

for India

Indian Economy

Transport Agriculture Residential CommercialIndustry

Urban Rural

Steel

Cement Aluminum Sugar

Chlor-Alkali Paper Brick

Textiles Fertilizer Others

End-use Sub-Sector Models (AIM)

Sectors in Indian AIM/ENDUSE Model

GDP

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Bil

lion

Rs.

Low Growth Medium High Growth

GVA Shares (Reference scenario)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Sh

ares

(%)

Industry CommercialTransport Agriculture, forestry and fishingPFCE

Sectoral and Technological Detail in Indian AIM\ENDUSESector Subsector Technl

Industry Steel 32

Aluminum 10

Cement 12

Brick 7

Paper 21

Caustic Soda 11

Soda Ash 14

Fertilizer 12

Sugar 18

Textiles 11

Others 4

Sector Subsector Technl Transport

25

Residential

Urban

25

Rural

21

Commercial

9

Agriculture

14

Total 246

Reference Energy System for TransportGasoline

Heavy Oil

Diesel

CNG

Electricity

Coal

ATF

2-W

3-W

4-W

Bus

HCV

LCV

Diesel Train

Electric Train

Passenger Aircraft

Steam Train

Ship

Road PKMS

Road TKMS

Rail TKMS

Air PKMS

Water TKMS

Rail PKMS

Gasoline

Heavy Oil

Diesel

CNG

Electricity

Coal

ATF

2-W

3-W

4-W

Bus

HCV

LCV

Diesel Train

Electric Train

Passenger Aircraft

Steam Train

Ship

Road PKMS

Road TKMS

Rail TKMS

Air PKMS

Water TKMS

Rail PKMS

Transport Technology Options

ROAD Vehicles

PASSENGERGOODS

2-Wheeler Heavy Truck (Diesel)

3-Wheeler Light Truck (Diesel)

Petrol Car Heavy Truck (CNG)

Diesel Car Light Truck (CNG)

CNG Car

RAIL Vehicles

Steam Loco

Diesel Loco

Electric Loco

Share of Transport in Service Sector

3

6

9

12

15

18

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994

Per

cen

t

Growth of Traffic in India

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1970 1980 1985 1990 1995

Road Rail Air

0

200

400

600

800

1970 1980 1985 1990 1995

Road Rail

Passenger (Billion PKms) Goods (Billion TKms)

Road Transport Demand: Projections

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Year

Bill

ion

PK

ms

Annual Growth Rate = 4.5 %

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

YearB

illio

n T

Km

s

Annual Growth Rate = 5.1%

Passenger Goods

Transport Demand Projections

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Year

Bill

ion

TK

ms

Annual Growth Rate =4.9%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Year

Bil

lion

PK

ms

Annual Growth Rate = 4.2 %

Air Transport Rail Goods Transport

Energy Consumption in Road and Rail Transport

0

40

80

120

160

200

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035Year

Mil

lion

Ton

nes

HSD Gasoline CNG

Road Transport Rail Transport

0

200

400

600

800

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035Year

Pet

a Cal

orie

s

Coal HSD Electricity

Carbon Emissions from Transport Sector

0

40

80

120

160

200

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Year

Mil

lio

n T

on

nes Annual Growth Rate = 4.5 %

Energy and Carbon Intensities in Transport Sector

10

11

12

13

14

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035Year

Meg

a Jo

ule

/ R

s. (

1990

pri

ces)

0.2

0.22

0.24

0.26

0.28

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035Year

Ton

Car

bon

/ '0

00 R

s.

Energy Intensity Carbon Intensity

Energy Consumption by Transport Modes

0

2

4

6

8

10

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Year

Ex

a J

ou

les Road Rail Air Ship

Energy Consumption in Brick Kilns

0

100

200

300

400

500

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Pet

a Jo

ule

s Coal Biomass

Technology Mix in Brick Production

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035Year

High DraughtVSBK

Clamps (Biomass)Bull trend Kiln 2Bull trend Kiln 1

Bill

ion

Nos

.

Energy Intensity of Brick Kilns

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Gig

a Jo

ule

/ '0

00 b

rick

s

Carbon Intensity of Bricks

0.044

0.052

0.06

0.068

0.076

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Ton

Car

bon

/'00

0 b

rick

s

Sectoral Primary Energy Consumption

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Pet

a Jo

ule

s

Industry Residential

Commercial Agriculture

Transport Power

Year

Sectoral Electricity Consumption

0

400

800

1200

1600

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

TW

h

Industry Residential Commercial

Agriculture Transport

Carbon Emissions by Fuels

0

150

300

450

600

750

900

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Year

Mill

ion

Tonn

es C

arbo

n

Coal Gas HSD KeroseneFuel Oil Gasoline ATF Electricity

Energy intensity of GDP

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Pe t

a J o

ul e

s\b

i ll i

o n R

s . (

1 99 3

pr o

c es)

Carbon Intensity of GDP

3

8

13

18

23

28

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Ton

Car

bon

\Mil

lion

Rs.

(19

93 p

rice

s)

SO2 Emissions (Million Tons)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Em

issi

ons

Power sector Industry Total

NOX Emissions (Million Tons)

0

2

4

6

8

10

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Em

issi

ons

Power sector Transport Total

Carbon Emissions

RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRY

TRANSPORT AGRICULTURE POWER SECTOR

RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRY

TRANSPORT AGRICULTURE POWER SECTOR

0%

28%

22%1%

2%

47%

0%

33%

18%2%

3%

44%5% 0%

14%1%

35%45%

1995 2010

2035