business dynamics simulator for startups and smes [ppt; © sinisa sovilj]

Business Simulation LabSiniša Sovilj, founder & CEO

sinisa.sovilj@ieee.orghr.linkedin.com/in/ssovilj

Bisensa.com

AboutThe company BISENSA.COMis developing Business Simulations for Entrepreneurshipto help them:• (A) design 5-years pro-forma financial statements for rapid business plan creation• (B) simulate strategic decisions to improve survival rate and support growth,• (C) produce fundamental analysis and company/idea valuation,• (D) foster entrepreneurial education, training & research,in risk-free, enjoyable, realistic and interactive simulation environment.

Secret sauce is System Dynamics modelling approach, superior methodologyfor modeling complex systems.

new companies / yr

10,000 Croatia3.2 M EU3.0 M US

Problem-Solution Fits

#1 Learning Environment for EntrepreneurialTraining/Education/Research

#2 Rapid Business Plan Creation System#3 Budgeting & Testing Future

Business Idea Viability

Solution (SD engine)

Solution (Desktop)INPUTS: OUTPUTS:

Solution (Web)

Inputs:

SimulatorMontly Quarterly Annually

Simulation mode: one-runGamming mode: interactive forward/backward runs

Outputs:

Outputs:

Fin.Reports:

Valuation:

Example – Sensitivity Analysis

●Multivariate Monte-Carlo Simulation● Marketing effectiveness = Normal distribution (mean 5%, deviation 2.5%)● Average salary per staff = Uniform distribution (min 2000$, max 3000$)● Product Sales Price = Normal distribution (mean 30$, deviation 5$)● Cost Price per Product = Normal distribution (mean 15$, deviation 5$)

Current50% 75% 95% 100%"Cash / Deposits Balance"2.207 M1.907 M1.606 M1.305 M1.004 M703,614402,892102,169

-198,554-499,277-800,000

0 9.6 19.2 28.8 38.4 48Time (Month)

(1)Entrepreneurs(2)Business Consultants(3)Regional Development Agencies(4)Public Policy Makers(5)Venture Capital & Angel Investors(6)Credit Banks(7)Universities & Business Schools

7 Market Segments

LivePlan.com

Competition

How much of this product will you sell?!?

Forecast!

SimVenture.co.uk

Competition

MIT-Sloan Management

Competition

compass.co (startup genome report)Benchmark

Revenue

● Freemium model

● 20-30$ / monthlysubscription for Premium

● 1000 users year 1● 3300 users year 2● 10000 users year 3

Expenses

● CAC = 3$ / user● Salaries = 30.000 $/yr

Revenue Model

EBIT

● 0$ year 1● 20.000$ year 2● 167.000$ year 3

Siniša Sovilj, CEOSystem Dynamics Consultant &Expert for Economy and Business Simulation Modeling

The Team

Martin Kunc,Associate Professor of StrategicManagement Science,WARWICK BUSINESS SCHOOL.

Zoran Aralica,Senior Research Associate, InnovationManagementTHE INSTITUTE OF ECONOMICS.

Krunoslav Hrnjak,Project Management Professional,YottaByte.

Partners & Supporters:

Goran Burazer,Senior Software Developer,OMEGA SOFTWARE.

Tomislav Bačurin,Sales & Marketing Expert,SP SISTEMI.

Business Simulation Lab -helps to simulate future businesses

The Vision

Thank You!Business Simulation Lab

Siniša Sovilj, Founder & CEOsinisa.sovilj@ieee.org

hr.linkedin.com/in/ssovilj

Bisensa.com

Case Study:Green Devil Control Systems

Company green technology for smart homes

IDEA: Founders will design, build, and offer a product(hardware) and service (software) that will allowhomeowners to control and monitor electricity usage intheir homes and deliver significant energy savings.

Three founders:(1) mechanical engineer(2) electrical engineer(3) economist

Time 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Investment Dates $ $ $ $

Value EventsStartupInitial Operating CapabilityFull Operating Capability

Proof of ConceptProof of ProductProof of MarketProof of Scale

Inital 1st Round Exit2st Round

Value Events

Fin.Reports:

Example – Company Valuation●Discounted Cash Flow

●Built Up Method:

0 (1 )

n

tt

CashFlowPreDiscount Rate

sent Value

Initial 1st Round 2nd Round Exit Valuation

Risk Free - 6% 6% 6%

Systemic - 10% 8% 2%

Unsystemic - 59% 36% 17%

Total Discount Rate - 75% 50% 25%

Valuation:

Thank you!

PPT/poster:hr.linkedin.com/in/ssovilj

Contact:sinisa.sovilj@ieee.org

1. Koliki se mjesečna poslovna dobit (EBIT) očekuje na kraju 5. godine? Akoliki mjesečni slobodni novčani tok (FCF)? Zašto se poslovna dobit islobodni novčani tok razlikuju?

2. Kolika je maksimalna razina negativnog novčanog toka (Cash BurnRate)?

3. Koliku investiciju trebamo da bi uspješno financirali poslovni pothvat?

4. Kolika je sadašnja vrijednost poslovnog pothvata/ideje (Net PresentValue) prije investicije?

5. Koliko bi morali prepustiti vlasništva ako bi od potencijalnog investitoraodmah zatražili cjelokupnu investiciju (Total Cash Needed) , a sami nebi ništa uložili?

MIJENJAJTE RAZLIČITE PARAMETRE MODELA (jedan po jedan) IPOKUŠAJTE USTANOVITI NA KOJE JE SADAŠNJA VRIJEDNOST FIRMENAJVIŠE OSJETLJIVA? Uputa: mjerite VrijednostFirme (%) Parametar (%)

ZADACI: