everything changes but change
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Email: susan@comsys.co.uk
Tel: +44-1727-832288
Susan Bull
Senior Consultant
COMSYS LLP
London, UK
VSAT Latin America
Sao Paulo 21.06.2016
Everything changes,
but change
Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
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VSAT
innovative
critical
everywhere
profitable
obvious
but restricted
but ignored
but nowhere
but insignificant
but invisible
Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
3
global enterprise VSAT
has continued to grow (just)
the technology has adapted
helped by consumer volumes
volume success has been based
on a combination of cost and
reliability
as well as ubiquity, uniformity and
uniqueness
Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
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Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
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Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
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Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
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service segment evolution
0
200
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04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Utility - 8.1%
Travel - 1.3%
Telecom - 5.%
Services - 19.1%
Retail - 7.2%
Mftr/Dist - 2.2%
Information - 15.8%
Other - 0.4%
Financial - 17.3%
Government - 23.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
04 15
Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
ATMs
Back-up
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85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Retail
Lottery
Manufacturing
Utility
Government
SME Broadband
Banking
Maritime
Mobility
sales
segment
evolution
Aeronautical
Cell Backhaul
Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
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enterprise VSAT growth
scada systems
atm machines
lottery terminals
credit verification
environmental monitoring
and ultimately ..
iot
digital divide
Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
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corporate VSAT growth
maritime
energy
cellular backhaul
military
emergency services
aeronautical
resource
Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
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in transitionin transition
11
consumer ambitions
economic & political variance
strong domestically
growing regional services
governmental recognition
digital divide
cellular backhaul/extension
Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
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Enterprise Consumer Enterprise Consumer
3Y CAGR -14.6% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0%
5Y CAGR -1.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0%
Hardware Service
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in transitionin transition
Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
filling unfulfilled potential?filling unfulfilled potential?
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india, china, se asia, australia, pacific
extension of challenged terrestrial
vsat’s positioning prowess
atms/financial, government, cell backhaul
o&g, maritime and mining
highly competitive space segment
plus ipstar, o3b, kacific, nbn
emerging and confusing markets
Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
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local changelocal change
1414
fibre redefinition & price pressure
local opportunities
satellite (over?) ambitions
questionable consumer
recovering enterprise
elephants hold the trunks!
Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
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Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
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Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
but by solving one problem we have
created an even bigger one
one that needs to be fixed
and will be fixed in time
our solution to bandwidth constraint
18
Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
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hts of all types will dominate
satellite bandwidth at some
point
the hts business model has been based
on inflexible closed systems
it’s worked in the us .. but it is it is not
proving to be a viable solution
internationally
we need more spacecraft flexibility
we need better bandwidth management
we need greater system modularity
we need adaptable & extensible nms
Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
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$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
90 95 00 05 10 15 20
sunrise … or sunset?
!?
Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
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satellite operators
are seeing declining revenues ..
it’s the beginning of the end of their
business model
working their way down the value chain
is considered the solution
but do they have the experience and
resources?
and how will their customers react?
Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
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closed systems
reduce VSAT operator value
increase satellite operator control and share
remove attractiveness for most providers
considerable resistance is evident
commoditise and devalue satellite solutions
potentially expand volume, but limit application
bring a lower cost/bit which is only now
beginning to emerge .. at a cost
Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
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Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
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leos
face huge development obstacles
will happen
will probably deploy in phases
will be closed systems
won’t be until the end of the decade
will be consumer focused
will be hugely disruptive
Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
25
businesses will adopt leo services
latency will be the trump card
leos might incorporate some geo lessons
possible operator configuration
enterprise focused partners
different terminal options
hybrid geo/leo solution integration
leos are a potential strategic opportunity
Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
26
vsat operators
are consolidating
are specialising
are hybridising
are defocusing
coverage, scale, investment are
considered the critical factors
possible investment in satellite systems
but every operator needs a pillar
….. in most cases mobility related
Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
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does the future lie with satellite operators ..
or with VSAT operators ..
or with carriers?
will VSAT systems become commoditised ..
do we require customisation ..
or standardisation?
is there a future for small VSAT operators?
so where does this leave us?so where does this leave us?
Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
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TOMORROW
BELONGSTO
THOSEWHO
CANHEARIT
COMING
Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
reading the signsreading the signs
29
bandwidth is no longer the key
leverage of customer & segment expertise
physical assets become a liability
service and application integration essential
consolidation and vertical integration
specialisation and focus
consumer service disruption
subscriber cost-reduction business models
Everything Changes, But ChangeVSAT Latin America, Sao Paulo – 21.06.2016
30
bandwidth value diminishes as capacity grows
satellite operators are facing their kodak moment
the challenges are fierce
opportunity exists …. but you need to focus & innovate
vsat operators have the keys to the kingdom
hybridisation is becoming a strategic essential
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