fifth us conference on peak oil and community solutions

Fifth US Conference on Peak Oil and Community Solutions

Ron Rancourt, David French

Topics: Peak Oil defined; Review of the conference; Individual and community solutions.

Presentation Available online: http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com

http://ontariopeak.wordpress.com

World Peak Oil defined

The point at which world oil production maxes out, and begins to decline forever.

July 2008 (we are at the peak)

Geologist M. King Hubbert famously predicted US Peak oil in 1956, 14 years before it occurred in 1970.

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World Peak Oil cont..

A Global Supply-Demand problem

China, India growing, becoming more affluent

World oil sources are in decline

No significant new discoveries being made despite massive investment

Last remaining sources are in politically unsettled countries

Current exporting countries are keeping more for themselves!

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There is only so much oil...Supply-Demand Gap

Source: www.aspo-ireland.org

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There is only so much oil...Supply-Demand Gap

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Implications

World demand on decreasing supply forces prices up

The cost of everything increases

No substitution for easily accessible, cheap oil

No technological quick-fix

If it wasn't for the current global financial crisis we would see $150/barrel oil today.

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Alberta Tar Sands

Worst environmental disaster in Cdn history.

Consumes massive amounts of natural gas and fresh water to process bitumen

Can't meet demand

Other liquid alternatives to oil can't make up the difference either

EROI (Energy Return on Investment) on oil alternatives is too low

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Alberta Tar Sands: Syncrude

The Syncrude Canada oil sands upgrader facility in Fort McMurray (Larry MacDougal_Globe and Mail)

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http://www.plancconference.org

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Individual and Community Solutions

Plan C: Curtailment, Community

Individuals have most potential to make a difference: Our Housing, Food and Transportation

amounts to 2/3 of all personal energy consumption.

Eco-Village/Intentional Community options.

Local Food, local economy

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Urban CitiesCost to build and maintain roads, infrastructure and services will rise dramatically

Ottawa has and will postpone/cancel road/bridge projects due to high fuel costs. Transit is the way to go.

Buildings: Retrofit incentives required for homes and commercial buildings for energy efficiency beyond LEED, EcoStar.

Forward thinking? Time is running out.

Governments are slow moving, often stand in the way of progress. It's up to us.

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Urban Cities

Poor design promotes sprawling suburbs Expensive to service, maintain

Ottawa has unique characteristics: Spread out East West Greenbelt, since 1958, was intended to prevent

sprawl, today it's used as an excuse to support it.

Developers, the OMB rule.

OttawaPeople are starting to understand that the city's finances -- driven by rapid suburban growth, demand for more government services and sharply rising costs for those services -- are not sustainable.

Patrick Dare, The Ottawa CitizenPublished: Monday, November 10, 2008

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Changing Cities

Post Carbon Cities Guide

Take examples from successful cities around the world.

Fast-track energy reducing policies, incentives

Divert more money from road budget to rail transit, bicycle network

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Changing CitiesPreparing for Peak OilA new guide for municipalities

By the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (UK) and Post Carbon Institute

www.odac-info.org

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Individual Choices

Drive less, go from 2 cars to 1, share a vehicle with a neighbour Smart Jitney, Vrtu-car, CommunAuto

Buy Local Food, share a garden

Insulate your house

German Passive House (heat it with a hair dryer!)

Passive Solar space/water heating

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House InsulationConsider whole-house as a system. Before replacing your furnace, look at your

building envelope. Air quality, humidity, energy use

Building practices past and future:

We were not concerned with leaky houses since energy was cheap.

Now we need airtight houses with smaller heating/cooling requirements

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German Passive House

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Solar hot water

Cost effective, shorter payback than PV electricity

H2Ottawa project to help people through the process - http://www.sustainableottawa.ca/

Can be used with radiant floor heating, and combined with other water heating systems

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References Passive House UK: www.passivehouse.co.uk

Ottawa Citizen Nov 10: City Cash woes veer out of control

http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/city/story.html?id=d160c2d0-1248-4536-9b93-c5bd444e5dff

Greber plan, Greenbelt, Ottawa history: http://www.teskey.com/ottawa/

Peak Oil Analysis

http://theoildrum.com

Association for the stufy of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO): www.peakoil.net

www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

Response to Peak Oil

http://www.postcarbon.org

http://postcarboncities.net

Reports from other cities (Hamilton), provinces, states that are taking action: http://postcarboncities.net/peakoilactions