limpopo basin in southern africa: local conditions and drivers (cpwf gd workshop, sept 2011)
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Local conditions and drivers
Andre F van Rooyen L3ICRISAT
LIMPOPO BASIN IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
Land use and livelihoods
• Crop-livestock systems• Main crops: Maize sorghum some legumes… a few cash crops; tobacco and cotton… vegetables
• Livestock: Cattle and goats, some goats – donkeys and horses – Poultry
• Low input systems… with low market access
• Systems are most probably highly unsustainable, with very low resilience… or high level resilience but at a low level of productivity
Southern Africa…
Mzingwane Catchment, Zimbabwe
Mozambique
South Africa
Botswana
Population• Population growth• Demographics
• Age of farmers• Feminization of Agriculture
Populations trends in basin
Women in agriculture
Increasing number of women farmers
Interaction at markets
Women groups
Increasing age of farmers in the region
Economics
Household economics (Zimbabwe)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Lives
tock
Remittan
ces
Veget
ables
Crop
farm
ing
Casual la
bor
Man
ufactu
ring
Fores
t pro
ducts
Formal e
mplo
ymen
t
Alcohol
brewing
Retail s
hop
Vendin
g
Fish sa
les
Gold m
ining
Cross
bor
der tr
ade
Faith
heali
ng
Trans
port
Per
cen
tag
e o
f fa
rmer
s
Rank 1 Rank 2 Rank 3
Sources of on-farm income
Cash from livestock…
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Food Education Humanhealth
Livestock Housing Farming Clothing Ceremony
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
farm
ers
Cattle Goats
Future scenarios…Feeding the livestock revolution
Potential economic drivers
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006$0
$100,000,000
$200,000,000
$300,000,000
$400,000,000
$500,000,000
$600,000,000
South Africa Livestock Products: Imports
SADC World-SADC
Global Climate Change
Policies….
The so-what about the “drivers”
• Agents of change • that can be can be positive or negative (direction of change)
• Eg. Climate change, policy, population growth, world economy, Energy demand and biofuel
and
• Conditions or factors which may reinforce or constrain these drivers• These variables may constrain/modify or affect the impact of drivers
• Eg. Education levels, access to information, market access, lack of infrastructure,
and
• Conditions or factors not playing an immediate role but which may, once it reach critical thresholds/levels become majors factors, or if included/considered may play critical roles in the outcome of specific development trajectories.
• Eg. Changing role of women in agriculture, increasing age of farmers, the potential impact of local regional markets which communities (SES) do not have access too.
A bold look at basin development…
Appreciate your attention.
Women in Agriculture• Women play a major role…• Feminization of Agriculture in southern Africa• Increased for on women – but do not exclude men!
Drivers of change and other important variables
Classic drivers Local Factors/Variables Other Factors/Variables
Global Climate Change
Existing variable climate Massive but unexploited potential in local and regional markets (South Africa)
World Economies Variable Policy environments – focus on crop production for food security but livestock offers betters pathways out of poverty
Increasing age of farmers(!) – exodus from rural areas by young educated people.
Population increases; urbanization changes in food requirements/demands – livestock revolution
Market access – both output and input markets; access to and cost of inputs
Increasing role played by women in agriculture and rural economies – feminization of agriculture in southern Africa
The sophistication of markets, consumer demands
National Policies – Agricultural investments – crop-livestock systems
Outline of the presentation• The Biophysical Environment• Land use and livelihoods• System drivers• What are drivers?
• Environmental• Social (& political)• Economical• Science
• Future scenarios
• Some suggestions
• 1. The conditions in the Limpopo that are relevant to change;
• 2 The drivers that affect conditions in the Limpopo and
• 3 Responses [i.e. what you see as responses to drivers and how they happened].
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