the impact of the wsa program on reducing high school dropout nikolas pharris-ciurej uw-bhs project...

The Impact of the WSA Program on Reducing High School Dropout

Nikolas Pharris-CiurejUW-BHS Project Workshop

October 19, 2007

Goals of the WSA Program Encourage school redesign Reducing financial barriers, associated with

college, for talented low income students Provide mentoring and support for students in

high school and college Ultimately, increase college going rates and

create a cadre of well educated citizens and leaders.

Potential Program Targets: High School

College Plans/Educational Goals Academic Rigor (AP, Advanced, Honors, College Prep) College Application Preparation (courses, SAT/ACT,

FAFSA, College Applications) High School Graduation

College College Attendance for Talented Students from

Disadvantaged Backgrounds Minimize Debt and Workload for Students from

Disadvantaged Backgrounds Increase 4 year college going rates for

students in WSA schools

National Census Bureau Estimates

HS Grad 84.9%

88.2%

BA/BS 26.0%

30.9%

The High School Completion Problem:% of Confirmed HS Graduates

40%46% 49%

Continously on-timeon-track 4 year

graduates

Graduated in 4 years-confirmed

Graduated in 5 yearsor less- confirmed

Per

ce

nt

of

Co

ho

rt

Research question:

Has the WSA program impacted high school graduation rates?Has the program impacted graduation rates

for any particular subpopulations? Low Income Students Poor performing students

Administrative School Records Enrolled students: (courses & grades) Typically tabulated in aggregate data

Collaborative with school district research office Possible to match students across years

Unique student ID and birthday Major limitation: Can not distinguish dropouts and out of

district transfers Use multiple aggregate level indirect estimation techniques We estimate ~3/5th of the ‘exiters’ either: 1) dropout or 2) transfer

and eventually dropout. Defined universe

First time 9th graders in school district Track for 4 years and measure “net exits” 4 cohorts (entered 9th grade in 96, 97, 98, & 99)

Administrative School Records 5 High Schools in the District

3 WSA High Schools2 Non-WSA High SchoolsAllows for a ~ ‘treatment-control’ analysis

Cohorts starting 9th grade from 1996 to 1999Allows for a ‘pre-post’ program effect analysis

Independent Variables Background: “Risk Factors”

Race/Ethnicity & Gender Family Income (above/below 185% of poverty level)Transferred into district for 9th gradeTransferred w/in district while in HS

Educational Experiences:Enrolled in a WSA schoolOver-age (indicator of prior retention)9th grade English—honors, ESL, special, regular First semester 9th grade GPA

Lexis-diagram of HS Progression

2nd Yr

1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

1st Yr

3rd Yr

4th Yr

Pre-Program Implementation

Partial Program: “Scholarships”

Full Program: “Scholarships & School Reform”

Time

Ye

ar

inS

ch

oo

l

Four Year High School Graduation By WSA and Program Implementation

52 4843 45

0

20

40

60

80

Pre-Program (1996-97) Post-Program (1999-2000)

Non-WSA WSA

48 -52 = 4% Decline45 – 43 = 2% Increase

Four Year HS Grad Rates for Low Income Students by WSA/ Non-WSA School, Pre & Post Program Implementation

41 4037 40

0

25

50

75

Lower Income (1996-97 AY) Lower Income (1999-00 AY)

Non-WSA

WSA

Pre-Implementation Post-Implementation

Non-WSA Low Income 40–41 = 1% decrease WSA Low Income 40–37 = 3% increase

a Percent of Overall Population

30%a 52% 29% 50%

Multivariate Analysis Logistic Regression Outcomes:

Made normal progression & graduated in 4 yearsGraduated in 4 years

Estimated Predicted Probabilities for an African American male from a low SES family, with a C average in 9th grade, and a history of transferring schools

Figure 1. Predicted Probability of an African American male from a low SES family, with a C average in 9th grade, and a history of transferring schools remaining on-track and graduating from high school in 4 years.

.40

.44

.40.39.39

.37

.43

.40

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

WSA Schools Non-WSA Schools

Pro

ba

bil

ity

of

Gra

du

ati

ng

in

4 y

ea

rs

96-00 97-01 98-02 99-03 96-00 97-01 98-02 99-03

Figure 2. Predicted Probability of an African American male from a low SES family, with a C average in 9th grade, and a history of transferring schools graduating from high school in 4 years.

.50

.53

.49.50

.52

.48

.54

.50

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

WSA Schools Non-WSA Schools

Pro

ba

bil

ity

of

Gra

du

ati

ng

in

4 y

ea

rs

96-00 97-01 98-02 99-03 96-00 97-01 98-02 99-03

Conclusion

Tentative positive effect on high school graduationMost likely due to promise of scholarshipShould continue—maybe strengthen—over time as

program is fully implemented No effect on sub-populations of interest for

these cohorts

Next Steps Add additional cohorts Examine whether the program is increasing HS

grad rates for specific at risk sub-groups. e.g. Does attending a WSA high school less than likely

hood of dropout for poor performers in 9th grade? Examine in which grades is the program effecting

HS attrition (9th, 10th, 11th, or 12th grade)

Thank you!

Direct Questions To:

Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej

nickpc@u.washington.edu

Four Year High School Graduation By Family Income for WSA/ Non-WSA Schools Pre & Post Program Implementation

57

4151

4049

3750

40

0

20

40

60

80

Higher Income(1996-97 AY)

Lower Income(1996-97 AY)

Higher Income(1999-00 AY)

Lower Income(1999-00 AY)

Non-WSA

WSA

Pre-Implementation Post-Implementation

Non-WSA High Income 51–57 = 6% decrease

WSA High Income 50 - 49 = 1% Increase

Non-WSA Low Income 40–41 = 1% decrease

WSA Low Income 40–37 = 3% increase

a Percent of Overall Population

70%a 30%48% 52% 71% 50% 29% 50%

Pattern of Change ExpectedH

igh

Sch

ool G

radu

atio

n R

ates

Time

Pre-WSA Post-WSA

Year 1& 2Year 3

Initial gap due to selection of low socio-economic schools as WSA schools

WSA schools

Non-WSA schools

Year 4

Year 1* WSA effectYear 2 *WSA effect

Year 3*WSA effect

Year 4*WSA

Year 5