thinkla mobile breakfast 2014 - henry blodget presentation

The Future Of MobileHenry BlodgetBI Intelligence

PCs are now small share of connected devices…

Almost 1 billion smartphones shipped in 2013

Tablets cannibalizing PCs…

“Phablets” filling in the gap…

Wearables beginning to take off…

Cars increasingly connected

PC vendors, meanwhile, are getting smoked

Mobile is creating big challenges and opportunities.

We spend 1 hour a day on our smartphones

We spend ½ hour on tablet each time we use it

Mobile is the only media time that is growing

Mobile is enabling new forms of entertainment, communication, media,

and commerce.

Staggering growth for new communication apps…

450 million WhatsApp users, +1 million a day

Similar growth for WeChat and Line…

Usage of these apps has blown past “texting”

~1 billion pictures shared each day

~500 million Snapchat pictures a day

Over 1/5th of Internet traffic is now from mobile

Mobile video is booming…

Social and music are now mostly mobile

Mobile is driving all of Facebook’s revenue growth

Mobile is now ~25% of e-commerce traffic…

(But only 13% of e-commerce sales)

Retailers are seeing huge mobile audience gains …

PayPal powers $30 billion in mobile transactions

Starbucks did $1 billion in mobile transactions last year

New mobile car services like Uber are thriving

Apple did $10 billion in app revenue last year

Mobile has extended digital day to 18/7

9/1/

12

9/6/

12

9/11

/12

9/16

/12

9/21

/12

9/26

/12

10/1

/12

10/6

/12

10/1

1/12

10/1

6/12

10/2

1/12

10/2

6/12

10/3

1/12

11/5

/12

11/1

0/12

11/1

5/12

11/2

0/12

11/2

5/12

11/3

0/12

12/5

/12

12/1

0/12

12/1

5/12

12/2

0/12

12/2

5/12

12/3

0/12

1/4/

130

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

Mobile Visits Desktop Visits

Source: Google Analytcs, Business Insider

Source: comScore, Telefonica, Macquarie Capital (USA), December 2011

Each device has a different “prime time”

Share Of Device Page Traffic Over A Day:

Where are we in the smartphone adoption

cycle?

Entering the late innings...

Smartphone sales have overtaken “dumb phones”

Developed markets are nearing maturity

US smartphone growth is slowing

Biggest opportunities now China and India

China is already twice the size of the US market…

…And the No. 2 market for apps

Prices are dropping fast

iPhone sales growth has cratered

iPad sales growth has also nose-dived

~225 million tablets were shipped in 2013

But growth is slowing rapidly

What about the platform war?

We have a winner!

~80% of smartphones run Android

~60% of tablets run Android

~60% of all new computing devices run Android

Android used to lag Apple badly with app

developers.

Not anymore.

Android now as popular with global developers as iOS

Android “fragmentation” improving

Reprinted With Permission From OpenSignal, “Android Fragmentation Visualized”

A majority of users now on “Jelly Bean”

Apple still very strong in US — but weaker globally

In US, Apple also still has edge in ad revenue

And a big edge in eCommerce traffic…

Should you be “mobile only?”

No!

The world is now “multi-screen”

You should be “mobile, too.”

What about ad spending?

One thing we can learn from the history of media…

Money follows eyeballs.

Eyeballs are moving to mobile

Mobile ad spending still lags time spent

So the money will follow…

Spending is moving to mobile…

Mobile ad prices are lower but rising

US mobile ad spending per sub growing fast

Mobile is still dominated by paid search ads

And Google owns almost all of it

So, what’s next?

Wearables!

Health devices are the most popular

Not much interest in smart watches so far

Interest in glasses and headgear is only modest

They cost a lot, and there’s the creepiness thing

Image: Google+/Robert Scoble

Connected Cars

Image: GM

We spend 1.2 hours a day in cars...

Working8.8 hours

So connectivity will soon come standard

Music, maps, weather, traffic, news are the killer apps

And soon you won’t even have to drive…

Enjoy the mobile future!

Thank you

Henry BlodgetCEO & Editor-in-Chief, Business Insider

Tony Danova, Research Analyst

Marcelo Ballvé, Editorial Director

BI Intelligence is a new subscription service from Business Insider that provides in-depth insight, data, and analysis of the mobile industry.

More info at intelligence.businessinsider.com

Cooper Smith, Research Analyst

John Heggestuen, Research Analyst