understanding the lake breeze and other drivers of ozone in southeast wisconsin kohler andrae state...

Understanding the lake breeze and other drivers of ozone in Southeast Wisconsin

Kohler Andrae State Park, Sheboygan, WIhttp://dnr.wi.gov/news/weekly/article/print.asp?id=3177

Angela Dickens, Ph.D. – with Mike Majewski, Bob Lopez & David BizotPolicy AnalystLADCO and Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources

2

Lake Michigan Shoreline: WI’s worst ozone problems

Draft ozone design values:2012-2014

2014 data have been QA’ed but are not yet been reviewed by EPA

3

Lake Michigan Shoreline: WI’s worst ozone problems

Nonattainment for 2008 standard

Draft ozone design values:2012-2014

2014 data have been QA’ed but are not yet been reviewed by EPA

4

Lake Michigan Shoreline: WI’s worst ozone problems

Nonattainment for 2008 standard

Draft ozone design values:2012-2014

2014 data have been QA’ed but are not yet been reviewed by EPA

5

Lakeshore Ozone in Wisconsin

Chicago

Milwaukee

6

76 ppb

71 ppb

66 ppb

61 ppb

Emissions and ozone are way down, but…LADCO model projections for 2018

From Alex Cohan, LADCO

7

One problem: Models don’t do a good job reproducing the lake breeze• Can’t accurately model ozone along the lakeshore• Needed for attainment demonstrations, etc.

Major needs for Wisconsin:• Understand the lake breeze better• Improve modeling of the lake breeze

8

Use of paired lakeshore-inland monitors

DRAFT 2012-14 Design ValuesData have been QA’ed but have not been reviewed by EPA

Operated 20143.25 miles inland

Operated 2013 & 20143.5 miles inland

9

Use of paired lakeshore-inland monitors

DRAFT 2012-14 Design ValuesData have been QA’ed but have not been reviewed by EPA

Operated 20143.25 miles inland

Operated 2013 & 20143.5 miles inland

1-hour ozone concentrations

10

Wind conditions leading to high ozoneKenosha lakeshore site (2013-14)

11

Wind conditions leading to high ozoneKenosha lakeshore site (2013-14)

12

Inland

Wind conditions leading to high ozoneLakeshore-inland comparison (2014 only)

Lakeshore

13

Inland

Wind conditions leading to high ozoneLakeshore-inland comparison (2014 only)

Lakeshore

Different wind directions lead to high ozone

14

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

f(x) = 0.875098254980288 x + 2.17821797931918R² = 0.840426197823031

Lakeshore concentration (ppb)

Inla

nd co

ncen

trati

on (p

pb)

Comparison of lakeshore and inland monitor concentrationsOne-hour ozone concentrations for 2013 & 2014 (June-August only)

Kenosha

15

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

f(x) = 0.875098254980288 x + 2.17821797931918R² = 0.840426197823031

Lakeshore concentration (ppb)

Inla

nd co

ncen

trati

on (p

pb)

1:1 line

Comparison of lakeshore and inland monitor concentrationsOne-hour ozone concentrations for 2013 & 2014 (June-August only)

Kenosha

16

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

f(x) = 0.875098254980288 x + 2.17821797931918R² = 0.840426197823031

Lakeshore concentration (ppb)

Inla

nd co

ncen

trati

on (p

pb)

1:1 line

Comparison of lakeshore and inland monitor concentrationsOne-hour ozone concentrations for 2013 & 2014 (June-August only)

Kenosha

17

Comparison of lakeshore and inland monitor concentrationsOne-hour ozone concentrations for 2014 (June-August only) Kenosha

60 65 70 75 80 854045505560657075808590

Lakeshore concentration bins (ppb)

Inla

nd co

ncen

trati

ons (

ppb)

Lakeshore exceeds standard

Inland exceeds standard

61-65 66-70 71-75 76-80 >80

18

Comparison of lakeshore and inland monitor concentrationsOne-hour ozone concentrations for 2014 (June-August only)

Only one inland 8-hour average exceeded the standard

Kenosha

60 65 70 75 80 854045505560657075808590

Lakeshore concentration bins (ppb)

Inla

nd co

ncen

trati

ons (

ppb)

Lakeshore exceeds standard

Inland exceeds standard

61-65 66-70 71-75 76-80 >80

19

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

-10-505

10152025303540

Lakeshore concentration bins (ppb)

Comparison of lakeshore and inland monitor concentrationsOne-hour ozone concentrations for 2014 (June-August only)

Only one inland 8-hour average exceeded the standard

Kenosha

60 65 70 75 80 854045505560657075808590

Inla

nd co

ncen

trati

ons (

ppb)

Lakeshore exceeds standard

Inland exceeds standard

61-65 66-70 71-75 76-80 >80

Lake

shor

e-in

land

diff

eren

ce (p

pb)

20

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

-10-505

10152025303540

Lakeshore concentration bins (ppb)

Comparison of lakeshore and inland monitor concentrationsOne-hour ozone concentrations for 2014 (June-August only)

Only one inland 8-hour average exceeded the standard

7-12 ppb (10-17%)• Larger differences in

Sheboygan (11-17 ppb)

Kenosha

60 65 70 75 80 854045505560657075808590

Inla

nd co

ncen

trati

ons (

ppb)

Lakeshore exceeds standard

Inland exceeds standard

61-65 66-70 71-75 76-80 >80

Lake

shor

e-in

land

diff

eren

ce (p

pb)

21

Differences in ozone concentrationsKenosha lakeshore-inland sites (2013 & 2014)(winds shown are for the lakeshore monitor)

22

Differences in ozone concentrationsKenosha lakeshore-inland sites (2013 & 2014)(winds shown are for the lakeshore monitor)

23

Conclusions:

• Ozone drops off sharply within a few km of the shoreline

• Ozone concentrations and concentration differences are largest with southerly winds• Exact direction varies depending on geography• Very narrow range of wind direction for a site

• Different wind conditions lead to high ozone inland versus on the lakeshore

24

Other Efforts:

1) Fine-scale modeling of the Lake Michigan lake breeze• AQAST Re-Analysis Tiger Team project: Brad Pierce & Scott Spak

2) Model validation from the 1994-2003 LADCO Aircraft Project• Theresa Foley, Army Research Laboratory

3) Ground-based and satellite analysis of ozone precursors in WI• Tracey Holloway & students

4) Comparison and origins of ozone trends in WI and Chicago• Ping Jing (Loyola U.) and David Streets

5) New field campaign???

25

Thank you!

Angela.dickens@wisconsin.gov608-264-8862

6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 220

50

100

150

200

250

3009/7/1985

hour of day

wind

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Effects of the lake breeze on ozone concentrations

2014 data have been QA’ed but are not yet been reviewed by EPA

6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 220

50

100

150

200

250

3009/7/1985

hour of day

wind

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Effects of the lake breeze on ozone concentrations0

22.5

45

67.5

90

112.5

135

157.5180

202.5

225

247.5

270

292.5

315

337.5

0

50

pre/post-lake breeze

Lake breeze

Average of events

2014 data have been QA’ed but are not yet been reviewed by EPA

6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 220

50

100

150

200

250

3009/7/1985

hour of day

wind

ozone

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Effects of the lake breeze on ozone concentrations0

22.5

45

67.5

90

112.5

135

157.5180

202.5

225

247.5

270

292.5

315

337.5

0

50

pre/post-lake breeze

Lake breeze

Average of events

2014 data have been QA’ed but are not yet been reviewed by EPA

6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 220

50

100

150

200

250

300

hour of day

7/31/1984wind

ozone

180160140120100806040200

6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 220

50

100

150

200

250

3009/7/1985

hour of day

wind

ozone

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Effects of the lake breeze on ozone concentrations

2014 data have been QA’ed but are not yet been reviewed by EPA

6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 220

50

100

150

200

250

300

hour of day

7/31/1984wind

ozone

180160140120100806040200

Effects of the lake breeze on ozone concentrations

022.5

45

67.5

90

112.5

135

157.5180

202.5

225

247.5

270

292.5

315

337.5

0

50

Pre/post lake breeze

Lake breeze2014 data have been QA’ed but are not yet been reviewed by EPA