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ATTACHEDHOUSINGMARKETASSESSMENT SAMPLEMARKETAPPROACH DINNFOCUSEDMARKETINGfor DEMONSTRATION CONFIDENTIAL

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Page 1: DFM MF Strategic Market Assessment Case Study 1.0 · 2014-04-04 · 2010Avera geH ouseholdSize 2012Households 2012Avera geH ouseholdSize 2017Households 2017Avera geH ouseholdSize

ATTACHED�HOUSING�MARKET�ASSESSMENT�SAMPLE�MARKET�APPROACH�

�DINN�FOCUSED�MARKETING�for�

DEMONSTRATION��

CONFIDENTIAL�

Page 2: DFM MF Strategic Market Assessment Case Study 1.0 · 2014-04-04 · 2010Avera geH ouseholdSize 2012Households 2012Avera geH ouseholdSize 2017Households 2017Avera geH ouseholdSize

This�comprehensive�attached�housing�market�Assessment�was�engaged�by�Silverman� and� Company� (Client)� to�consider�the�multi�family�market�potential�for�a�proposed�attached�residential�development�in�the�Deerfield�Township/Mason�submarket�of�the�Greater�Cincinnati�Metro�market�(subject�Site).��The�objective�is�to�assemble�the�most�relevant�marketplace�data�and�trends�that�would�sup�port�initial�market�and�financial�risk�considerations,�including�demographic�household�information,�competitive�rental�product�posi�tions,�and�comprehensive�supply�demand�modeling�based�upon�a�number�of�valid�inputs.� �This�report� is�a�Summary�of�the�market�intelligence�with�DFM�Conclusions�to�immediately�follow.��DFM�employs�the�best�national�data�sources�under�subscriptions�or�proprietary� licenses.� �The�baseline�data� is�aggregated�within�a�proprietary�DFM�Strategic�Market�Assessment/Realtime�Tactics�or�SMA/RT™�platform�(Platform).��The�Platforms�serves�as�the�criti�cal�data�repository,�ongoing�analyses�workspace�and�realtime�presentation�venue�as�long�as�required�to�serve�the�subject�Site.��DFM�has�provided�several�screenshots�of�the�initial�analyses�in�this�Summary,�along�with�accompanying�Platform�presentations�for�Client,�their�design�team,�financial�partners�and�municipal�managers�as�may�later�be�required.��DFM�methodology�begins�with�defined�attached�housing�market�boundaries�amid�conservative�marketplace�assumptions.��Normally,�the�adjacent�built�environment� sources� the�primary�users� for�new�attached�housing,�either� rental�or� for�sale�opportunities.� �DFM�therefore�assumes�that�a�key�market�consideration�is�focusing�on�existing�households�that�already�engage�the�employment�and�life�style� of� the� Deerfield� Township/Mason� submarket� and� are� the�most� likely�market� segment� targets,� especially�when� the� housing�choice�is�a�new�upscale�apartment.��Client�has�also�offered�their�preliminary�site�plan�layout�and�housing�product�elevations�as�a�prelude�to�more�formal�rental�product�designs.��These�initial�designs�calls�for�a�mix�of�250�rental�units�in�a�three�story�layout�of�two�dense�building�with�a�mix�of�structured�parking,�detached�garages�and�on�grade�parking.� �The�following�Assessment�approach� is�to� identify�the�depth�and�direction�of�the�adjacent�rental�housing�submarket�and�align�the�proposed�housing�against�the�existing�competitive�choices�in�the�market�ahead.���The�Core�Attached�Housing�Market�will�be�defined�by�an�eight�(8)�minute�drive�time�from�the�Site�under�standard�speed�limits�and�traffic�conditions�in�any�direction�as�described�by�DFM�mapping�engines.��An�Outer�Attached�Housing�Market�is�a�bound�by�a�similar�fifteen�(15)�minute�drive�time�that�includes�the�8�minute�area�above.��DFM�selected�a�comprehensive�rental�housing�trade�area,�or�Housing�Area,�for�the�competitive�set�of�attached�housing�inventory�and�product�within�the�Core�Area�above.��DFM�will�consider�all�of�the�existing�and�potential�local� rental�housing�choices,�from�existing�multi�family�apartment�sites�to�the�rental�of�non�owner�occupied�attached�and�detached�housing.��For�time�boundaries,�all�data�and�trends�are�as�of��April�2013�unless�otherwise�noted.��

INTRODUCTION�������

DFM�SMA/RT™�PLATFORM�

����

RENTAL�HOUSING�ASSUMPTIONS�

���������

DFM�SUBMARKET��BOUNDARIES�and�PROD�

UCT�POSITIONS��

Page�2�CONFIDENTIAL�

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The�following�conclusions�are�drawn�from�the�Assessment:���� The�Site�is�located�in�Deerfield�Township�north�of�the�confluence�of�Warren,�Butler�and�Hamilton�Counties�with�direct�influence�

from�each.��The�Site�is�central� to�a�“perimeter”�of�older,�mostly�scaled�garden�apartment�sites� located�by�interstates�or�com�muter�routes�and�their�accompanying�MF�zoning.�

�� This�submarket�was�bound�by�two�Demographic�Areas�for�rental�household�demand�modeling�and�a�9�tract�overlay�assemblage�of�housing�property�data�for�review�of�the�adjacent�rental�properties�that�would�serve�this�demand.��Although�the�Site�initially�seems�disconnected�from�the�household�concentrations�to�the�south�and�the�“corridors”�along�the�interstates,�the�data�reflects�that�the�Site�enjoys�a�unique�combination�of�sustained�household�growth,�affluent�householders,�rental�householders�and�em�ployment�centers�that�index�high�for�professional�employees.�

�� Per�recent�US�Census�data,�some�7,500�or�29%�of�the�Core�Area�households�rent�their�home.��Further�to�the�Outer�Area�bounda�ries,� the� renters�are�consistently�26%�and�a� total�28,600� rental�households.� �Precise�DFM�demand�modeling� for�more�upscale�rental�households�using�2012�Esri®�Tapestry�market�segmentation�further�qualified�these�adjacent�renters�by�their�expected�life�style,�housing�and�career�mobility,�household�size�and�connection�to�the�Site�employment�centers,�including�those�with�incomes�over�$54,000�who�typically�afford�monthly�rents�over�$1,050.�

�� This�modeling�identified�a�pool�of�at�least�4,000�local�renters�in�the�Core�Area�that�directly�align�as�potential�Site�tenants�and�an�other�1,200�as�a�small�share�of�those�qualified�within�the�next�7�minutes.��This�is�a�total�5,200�target�renter�households,�a�market��and�income�qualified�18%�share�of�the�total�renters�within�15�minutes.��These�are�found�within�six�household�market�segments�of�similar�lifestyle,�interests�and�mobility.��This�model�ignores�those�potential�renters�from�outside�the�15�minute�boundary�or�new�in�migrations�relocated�from�outside�the�greater�Cincinnati�Metro�market.�

�� Within�a�Deerfield�Township/Mason�Housing�Area,�these�rental�households�choose�today�from�20�prominent�and�typically�scaled�apartment�projects�that�provide�4,625�units,�plotted�in�accompanying�charts�for�today’s�market�position.��Of�these�20�prominent�projects,�only�one�was�built� since�2000�and�half�were�built�before�1990.� �Each�site� is�a� typical� suburban� apartment� layout,�a�sprawling,�garden�style�design�with�on�grade�outdoor�parking,�walk�up�units�stacked�in�repetitive�buildings�and�single�site�entry�that�disconnects�the�site�from�the�surrounding�neighborhood.���

�� DFM�also�found�at�minimum�some�300�rental�attached�housing�and�650�rental�detached�homes�within�the�same�Housing�Area,�a�total�of�at� least�5,575�rental�choices�over�a�range�quality�and�experience.� �When�the�950�rental�homes�above�are�plotted,� the�rental�submarket�becomes�symmetrical�to�the�Site.��The�more�“displaced”�competitive�apartment�sites�seem�to�“ring”�the�com�petitive�Housing�Area,�located�by�outward�commuter�access,�while�these�upscale�attached�and�detached�homes�with�a�share�of�rental�occupants�have�“filled�in”�the�submarket.�

DFM�CONCLUSIONS������������������

Page�3�CONFIDENTIAL�

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The�following�conclusions�are�drawn�from�the�Assessment:���� Preliminary�designs�of�The�Grand�provide�an�updated�and�dense�urban�layout�within�a�short�walk�to�retail,�entertainment�and�

recreation�venues�in�a�less�congested�suburban�setting.��The�site�is�proximate�to�overall�household�growth,�a�wealth�of�daytime�employment�centers�and�newer�lifestyle�venues.�

�� The�5,200�target�rental�households�were� income�qualified� for� rents� over� $1,050� per�month,�a�key�distinction�given�the�rents�structure�of� the�competitive�apartment�choices.� �Given� the�array�of�20�competitive�apartment�sites,� their� rental�products�and�rents,�they�supply�some�1,935�appropriate�rental�units.��When�the�other�rental�attached�and�detached�homes�in�the�Area�are�in�cluded,�the�total�supply�for�upscale�rentals�is�and�estimate�total�2,835�units.�

�� There�is�little�competitive�development�on�the�horizon�to�better�serve�this�demand.��The�only�other�new�multi�family�develop�ment�within�the�Housing�Area�is�Latitude�at�Deerfield�Crossing�by�Anderson�Birkla�with�224�units� in�a�similar,�dense�four�story�design�located�just�0.5�miles�south�of�the�Site�at�Mason�Montgomery�and�Merten�Roads.��The�Grand�conceptual�plans�provided�by�Client�would�yield�250�units.�

�� When�the�qualified�demand�modeling�adjacent�to�the�Site�is�casted�against�today’s�supply�of�upscale�apartments�and�all�of�the�other�rental�homes,�the�unmet�demand�for�more�upscale�rental�housing�after�considering�both�new�developments�above,�is�still�an�estimated�net�2,000�units� in� the�next�housing�cycle.��This�estimate�does�not�factor�the�rising�preference�for�rental�housing�among�the�same�select�households�qualified,�nor�the�Site�proximity�to�a�high�concentration�of�high�paying�employment.�

�� From�these�assumptions,�market�data�and�forecasted�modeling,�the�proposed�Site�seems�well�positioned�to�capture�an�appropri�ate�share�of�the�adjacent�upscale�rental�households�in�the�next�housing�cycle.���This�position�should�be�refined�with�more�detailed�rental�product�designs�and�pro�forma�rent�scenarios.�

DFM�CONCLUSIONS�continued.�

�����������������

Page�4�CONFIDENTIAL�

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DEERFIELD�TOWNSHIP�RENTAL�HOUSING�MARKET�AHEAD�

Page�5�CONFIDENTIAL�

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The�SMA/RT™�screenshot�above�describes�the�market�relevant�household�trade�areas�for�new�consideration�of�the�Deerfield�Township�and�Mason�attached�housing�market�going�forward.��The�subject�Site�is�located�by�the�blue�pin�at�the�center�of�this�and�the�following�graphics.��The�Core�Demographic�Market�Area�(Core�Area)�is�formed�by�an�8�minute�drive�time�in�any�direction�from�the�Site,�as�shown�by�the�red�shade,�while�the�Outer�Demographic�Market�Area�(Outer�Area)�is�a�15�minute�drive�time�that�includes�the�Core�Area�and�as�shown�by�the�orange�shade.��For�geographic�reference,�a�third�Extended�Area�of�a�similar�20�minute�drive�from�the�Site�is�seen�in�yellow�shade.��DFM�provides�current�year�and�trend�information�of�householders�within�these�Areas�as�baseline�data�for�qualified�rental�household�demand.���

DEERFIELD�TOWNSHIP�RENTAL�HOUSING�MARKET�AHEAD�

Page�6�CONFIDENTIAL�

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The�SMA/RT™�screenshot�above�is�the�previous�graphic�with�the�addition�of�a�key�competitive�area.��The�green�shade�represents�nine�adjacent�Census�tracts�in�the�three�Counties�of�Butler,�Hamilton�and�Warren.��DFM�will�access�licensed�data�sources�for�all�of�the�rental�housing�properties�within�this�Competitive�Housing�Area.��Data�will�include�the�top�competitive�apartment�sites,�other�smaller�apartments,�rental�attached�homes�(e.g.,�condominiums�and�townhomes)�and�rental�single�family�detached�homes.��This�Competitive�Housing�Area�extends�through�the�previous�Core�Area:��West�Chester�to�the�west,�Tylersville�Road�to�the�north,�past�I�71�to�Montgomery�Road�(SR22)�to�the�east�and�past�Kemper�Road�to�I�275�to�the�south.��The�property�data�from�this�Area�will�become�the�baseline�for�current�and�near�term�competitive�rental�supply.�

DEERFIELD�TOWNSHIP�RENTAL�HOUSING�MARKET�AHEAD�

Page�7�CONFIDENTIAL�

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The�table�at�right�is�a�sample�excerpt�of�the�recent�2012�US�Census�data�found�

within�the�Core�and�Outer�Areas.��

Over�the�last�twelve�years,�the�Core�Area�demonstrates�over�20%�household�growth�with�4,323�new�households�in�the�adjacent�Core�Area.��Similar�14%�

growth�was�seen�in�the�Outer�Area�with�a�total�of�12,426�new�households�within�

15�minutes�of�the�Site.��

From�2000�2010,�rental�households�rose�65%�to�nearly�7,500�in�today’s�Core�Area�and�account�for�29%�of�all�house�holders.��In�the�next�five�years,�Esri�esti�

mates�reflect�a�2.4%�growth�in�total�households,�but�flat�levels�of�rental�households,�likely�the�result�of�the�

stalled�housing�recovery�and�recent�mi�gration�of�new,�younger�households.��

DEERFIELD�TOWNSHIP�RENTAL�HOUSING�MARKET�AHEAD�

Vacant�Housing�Units 6.6% 6.9%

Renter�Occupied�Housing�Units 28.5% 25.6%Vacant�Housing�Units 6.0% 6.8%

2017�Housing�Units 27,008 114,932Owner�Occupied�Housing�Units 65.8% 68.4%Renter�Occupied�Housing�Units 27.6% 24.6%

Vacant�Housing�Units2012�Housing�Units 26,206 111,821

110,51368.7%24.9%6.4%

25,89566.8%27.5%5.7%

Owner�Occupied�Housing�Units 65.5% 67.7%

Renter�Occupied�Housing�UnitsVacant�Housing�Units

96,25071.5%23.9%4.6%

21,43273.6%21.1%5.3%

2010�Housing�UnitsOwner�Occupied�Housing�UnitsRenter�Occupied�Housing�Units

2012�Families2012�Average�Family�Size

2017�Families2017�Average�Family�Size2012�2017�Annual�Rate

Housing�Unit�Summary2000�Housing�Units

Owner�Occupied�Housing�Units

2010�Households2010�Average�Household�Size

2012�Households2012�Average�Household�Size

2017�Households2017�Average�Household�Size2012�2017�Annual�Rate

2010�Families2010�Average�Family�Size

2017�Total�Population 62,687 271,4432012�2017�Annual�Rate 0.44% 0.51%

Household�Summary2000�Households

2000�Average�Household�Size91,8362.55

Population�Summary�2000�Total�Population 53,530 236,8832010�Total�Population 60,879 261,9572012�Total�Population 61,325 264,611

2012�Group�Quarters 225 1,798

2012�Market�Profile

The�Grand�8.15�Borders Dinn�Focused�Marketing,�Inc.Drive�Time:�8,�15�minutes Latitude:�39.30989

Longitude:��84.32027

0���8�minutes 0���15�minutes

103,3982.52

104,2622.52

106,9782.52

0.52%71,0823.07

71,5973.06

72,9093.08

0.36%

20,3032.60

24,4312.48

24,6262.48

25,2152.48

0.47%16,7703.02

16,8493.01

17,0633.03

0.25%

Page�8�CONFIDENTIAL�

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The�table�at�right�is�a�sample�excerpt�of�the�recent�2005�2009�US�Census�Ameri�can�Community�Survey�with�data�found�within�the�Core�Area�(8�minute�drive).��

This�annual�survey�has�replaced�the�Cen�sus�long�form�as�the�basis�for�data.��The�five�year�average�data�at�right�is�avail�

able�as�an�interim�output,�while�the�more�regular�annual�data�will�begin�

updates�in�May�2013.��

The�timing�here�is�key.��Renter�data�from�2005�2009�depicts�the�height�of�the�

housing�surge,�the�greatest�rental�va�cancy�rates�and�the�transition�from�the�

heady�for�sale�housing�market.��It�repre�sents�the�low�point�of�recent�rental�

market�activity�and�metrics.��

Yet,�the�measured�5,909�rental�house�holds�within�the�8�minute�Core�Area�saw�

a�good�distribution�on�contract�rents�over�$500�per�month.��DFM�notes�that�

some�1,782�of�the�surveyed�renters�had�average�rents�over�$1,000�per�month,�or�30%.��Nearly�92%�paid�extra�for�their�utilities�under�their�lease�agreements.�

�Lastly,�the�ACS�utilizes�a�Reliability�rat�ing�system�based�upon�their�survey�re�

sults�with�the�accompanying�color�coded�symbols�at�far�right.���

DEERFIELD�TOWNSHIP�RENTAL�HOUSING�MARKET�AHEAD�

high medium low

The�Grand�8.15�Borders Dinn�Focused�Marketing,�Inc.Drive�Time:�8�minutes Latitude:�39.30989

Longitude:��84.32027

2005�2009�ACS�Housing�Summary

50�or�more 653 2.8% 150

2005�2009ACS�Estimate Percent MOE(±) Reliability

Total 5,909 100.0% 370RENTER�OCCUPIED�HOUSING�UNITS�BY�CONTRACT�RENT

$100�to�$149 28 0.5% 38Less�than�$100 52 0.9% 67

With�cash�rent 5,739 97.1% 368

$250�to�$299 2 0.0% 26$200�to�$249 27 0.5% 29$150�to�$199 16 0.3% 15

$400�to�$449 76 1.3% 84$350�to�$399 6 0.1% 29$300�to�$349 0 0.0% 0

$550�to�$599 131 2.2% 75$500�to�$549 73 1.2% 38$450�to�$499 99 1.7% 89

$700�to�$749 432 7.3% 123$650�to�$699 311 5.3% 96$600�to�$649 263 4.5% 109

$900�to�$999 582 9.8% 140$800�to�$899 1,410 23.9% 221$750�to�$799 449 7.6% 117

$1,500�to�$1,999 240 4.1% 83$1,250 to $1,499 473 8.0% 196$1,000�to�$1,249 849 14.4% 163

Upscale�Total 1,782 30.2%$2,000�or�more 220 3.7% 103

Total 5,909 100.0% 370UTILITIES�IN�RENTRENTER�OCCUPIED�HOUSING�UNITS�BY�INCLUSION�OF

No�extra�payment�for�any�utilities 480 8.1% 130Pay�extra�for�one�or�more�utilities 5,428 91.9% 350

1,�detached 13,443 58.1% 379Total 23,141 100.0% 484HOUSING�UNITS�BY�UNITS�IN�STRUCTURE

3�or�4 834 3.6% 1502 100 0.4% 511,�attached 2,665 11.5% 212

20�to�49 330 1.4% 11810�to�19 2,018 8.7% 2565�to�9 2,467 10.7% 286

Source:�U.S.�Census�Bureau,�2005�2009�American�Community� Reliability:

Page�9�CONFIDENTIAL�

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This�is�a�second�excerpt�of�the�previous�ACS�data�found�in�the�8�minute�Core�

Area.��

A�minor�2.2%�of�measured�housing�was�built�during�the�Survey,�since�2005,�only�517�units�constructed�during�the�peak�

and�significant�housing�downturn.��

Rental�household�transience�was�a�large�18%�share�of�renters�moving�in�the�

transition�years.��The�adjacent�rental�households�were�not�typically�wed�to�

their�automobile,�as�some�57%�reported�having�either�one�vehicle�or�no�vehicle.��Note�that�the�Percent�figures�provided�for�Renter�Occupied�housing�units�are�misleading,�depicting�the�share�of�all�

occupied�households.�

DEERFIELD�TOWNSHIP�RENTAL�HOUSING�MARKET�AHEAD�

high medium lowSource:�U.S.�Census�Bureau,�2005�2009�American�Community� Reliability:

Average�Number�of�Vehicles�Available N/A N/A

5�or�more�vehicles�available 49 0.2% 594�vehicles�available 53 0.2% 623�vehicles�available 327 1.5% 1172�vehicles�available 2,084 9.8% 2711�vehicle�available 3,009 14.1% 298No�vehicle�available 385 1.8% 147

Renter�occupiedOCCUPIED�HOUSING�UNITS�BY�VEHICLES�AVAILABLE

Moved�in�1969�or�earlier 11 0.1% 15Moved�in�1970�to�1979 0 0.0% 0Moved�in�1980�to�1989 35 0.2% 23Moved�in�1990�to�1999 347 1.6% 165Moved�in�2000�to�2004 1,781 8.4% 228Moved�in�2005�or�later 3,735 17.5% 348

Renter�occupiedMoved�in�1969�or�earlier 551 2.6% 133Moved�in�1970�to�1979 748 3.5% 116Moved in 1980 to 1989 1,943 9.1% 222Moved�in�1990�to�1999 5,034 23.6% 303Moved�in�2000�to�2004 5,109 24.0% 312Moved�in�2005�or�later 2,026 9.5% 227

Owner�occupiedTotal 21,319 100.0% 490INTO�UNITOCCUPIED�HOUSING�UNITS�BY�YEAR�HOUSEHOLDER�MOVED

Median�Year�Structure�Built 1,988 N/A

Built�1939�or�earlier 287 1.2% 102Built�1940�to�1949 258 1.1% 85Built�1950�to�1959 1,036 4.5% 179Built�1960�to�1969 1,439 6.2% 178Built�1970�to�1979 3,412 14.7% 284Built�1980�to�1989 6,178 26.7% 371Built�1990�to�1999 6,714 29.0% 391Built�2000�to�2004 3,299 14.3% 309Built�2005�or�later 517 2.2% 141

Total 23,141 100.0% 484HOUSING�UNITS�BY�YEAR�STRUCTURE�BUILT

2005�2009ACS�Estimate Percent MOE(±) Reliability

The�Grand�8.15�Borders Dinn�Focused�Marketing,�Inc.Drive�Time:�8�minutes Latitude:�39.30989

Longitude:��84.32027

2005�2009�ACS�Housing�Summary

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The�table�at�right�is�an�excerpt�of�the�2012�Business�Summary�employment�

metrics�found�within�the�8�minute�Core�Area�and�then�the�extended�15�minute�

drive�area.��

DFM�notes�a�significant�49,000�daytime�employees�found�in�the�Core�Area,�with�some�13,900�or�28%�seen�in�more�up�scale�professions�of�Information,�Fi�

nance�and�Insurance,�Real�Estate,�Pro�fessional�Scientific�Tech�Services,�includ�

ing�the�Management�of�Companies,�shown�in�red�text.�

�The�next�seven�minutes�out�from�the�Site�have�a�net�164,230�daytime�employees,�though�the�share�of�upscale�professions�seen�above�are�nearly�half�with�25,850�

or�some�16%.����

DEERFIELD�TOWNSHIP�RENTAL�HOUSING�MARKET�AHEAD�

Number2755

1,3323,7781,8118,1681,248529280

1,2891,3111,468

7537832374847545278537

5,4133,838246

1,3281,3666,414272129

3,1693,4744,438828

4,433521

3,9122,370453786276

49,038

Latitude:�39.30989Longitude:��84.32027

2012�Business�SummaryThe�Grand�8.15�Borders Dinn�Focused�Marketing,�Inc.Drive�Time:�8,�15�minutes

Data�for�all�businesses�in�area 0���8�minutes 0���15�minutesTotal�Businesses: 2,789 12,354Total�Employees: 49,038 213,268Total�Residential�Population: 61,059 263,621Employee/Residential�Population�Ratio: 0.80 0.81

Businesses Employees Businesses Employeesby�NAICS�Codes Number Percent Percent Number Percent Number PercentAgriculture,�Forestry,�Fishing�&�Hunting 6 0.2% 0.1% 24 0.2% 125 0.1%Mining 1 0.0% 0.0% 5 0.0% 16 0.0%Utilities 1 0.0% 0.0% 13 0.1% 76 0.0%Construction 202 7.2% 2.7% 873 7.1% 8,333 3.9%Manufacturing 121 4.3% 7.7% 647 5.2% 33,828 15.9%Wholesale�Trade 145 5.2% 3.7% 650 5.3% 10,373 4.9%Retail�Trade 408 14.6% 16.7% 1,805 14.6% 29,730 13.9%Motor�Vehicle�&�Parts�Dealers 52 1.9% 2.5% 190 1.5% 3,892 1.8%Furniture�&�Home�Furnishings�Stores 34 1.2% 1.1% 129 1.0% 1,556 0.7%Electronics�&�Appliance�Stores 34 1.2% 0.6% 152 1.2% 1,532 0.7%Bldg�Material�&�Garden�Equipment�&�Supplies�Dealers 44 1.6% 2.6% 166 1.3% 4,047 1.9%Food�&�Beverage�Stores 40 1.4% 2.7% 197 1.6% 4,489 2.1%Health�&�Personal�Care�Stores 47 1.7% 3.0% 175 1.4% 3,770 1.8%Gasoline�Stations 12 0.4% 0.2% 47 0.4% 274 0.1%Clothing�&�Clothing�Accessories�Stores 39 1.4% 0.8% 232 1.9% 2,313 1.1%Sport�Goods,�Hobby,�Book,�&�Music�Stores 25 0.9% 0.7% 133 1.1% 1,363 0.6%General�Merchandise�Stores 17 0.6% 1.5% 65 0.5% 3,535 1.7%Miscellaneous�Store�Retailers 58 2.1% 1.0% 286 2.3% 2,412 1.1%Nonstore�Retailers 5 0.2% 0.1% 32 0.3% 545 0.3%

Transportation�&�Warehousing 33 1.2% 0.6% 240 1.9% 4,420 2.1%Information 47 1.7% 1.1% 214 1.7% 5,046 2.4%Finance�&�Insurance 229 8.2% 11.0% 926 7.5% 10,621 5.0%Central�Bank/Credit�Intermediation�&�Related�Activities 93 3.3% 7.8% 337 2.7% 5,458 2.6%Securities,�Commodity�Contracts�&�Other�Financial� 52 1.9% 0.5% 220 1.8% 1,603 0.8%Insurance�Carriers�&�Related�Activities;�Funds,�Trusts�&� 84 3.0% 2.7% 369 3.0% 3,560 1.7%

Real�Estate,�Rental�&�Leasing 145 5.2% 2.8% 619 5.0% 5,775 2.7%Professional,�Scientific�&�Tech�Services 291 10.4% 13.1% 1,290 10.4% 18,149 8.5%Legal�Services 47 1.7% 0.6% 184 1.5% 1,390 0.7%

Management�of�Companies�&�Enterprises 3 0.1% 0.3% 9 0.1% 159 0.1%Administrative�&�Support�&�Waste�Management�&� 177 6.3% 6.5% 651 5.3% 7,909 3.7%Educational�Services 81 2.9% 7.1% 336 2.7% 11,682 5.5%Health�Care�&�Social�Assistance 240 8.6% 9.1% 1,079 8.7% 26,882 12.6%Arts,�Entertainment�&�Recreation 45 1.6% 1.7% 200 1.6% 4,468 2.1%Accommodation�&�Food�Services 209 7.5% 9.0% 880 7.1% 19,254 9.0%Accommodation 21 0.7% 1.1% 91 0.7% 2,656 1.2%Food�Services�&�Drinking�Places 188 6.7% 8.0% 789 6.4% 16,599 7.8%

Other�Services�(except�Public�Administration) 285 10.2% 4.8% 1,340 10.8% 9,600 4.5%Automotive�Repair�&�Maintenance 42 1.5% 0.9% 260 2.1% 1,968 0.9%

Public�Administration 34 1.2% 1.6% 201 1.6% 5,424 2.5%Unclassified�Establishments 88 3.2% 0.6% 353 2.9% 1,398 0.7%

Total 2,789 100% 100% 12,354 100% 213,268 100%

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The�SMA/RT™�screenshot�above�sets�the�previous�boundaries�as�a�dark�red�border�for�the�Core�8�minute�area�and�an�dark�orange�border�for�the�Outer�15�minute�area,�then�plots�the�location�and�concentration�of�the�annualized�household�growth�by�US�Census�block�groups.��Using�new�2010�Census�geography,�these�block�groups�rep�resent�250�1,250�households�and�typically�3�5�block�groups�constitute�a�Census�tract.���In�the�darkest�concentrations�of�violet�shade�per�the�legend,�DFM�notes�the�highest�growth�over�8.0%�annually�in�the�Core�Area�adjacent�to�the�Site.��Further�toward��the�Outer�Area,�ten�year�growth�over�8.0%�is�seen�north�in�Mason�and�east�in�Maineville.�

DEERFIELD�TOWNSHIP�RENTAL�HOUSING�MARKET�AHEAD�

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The�SMA/RT™�screenshot�above�sets�the�previous�boundaries�and�growth�metrics�for�the�last�two�years�of�2010�2012.��Note�that�after�the�surges�housing�demand�and�downturn�in�the�2000’s,�household�growth�continued�in�the�Site�block�group�scattered�concentrations�north�and�west�of�the�Site.�

DEERFIELD�TOWNSHIP�RENTAL�HOUSING�MARKET�AHEAD�

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The�SMA/RT™�screenshot�above�plots�the�location�and�concentration�of�the�2012�estimated�renter�households�today�by�the�same�US�Census�block�groups.��In�the�dark�est�concentrations�of�blue�shade�per�the�legend,�DFM�notes�a�higher�density�of�renters�near�the�Site�relative�to�the�Core�Area,�south�toward�I�275�and�east�to�Landen�and�Loveland.�

DEERFIELD�TOWNSHIP�RENTAL�HOUSING�MARKET�AHEAD�

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The�SMA/RT™�screenshot�above�plots�the�same�2012�block�groups�for�median�household�incomes.��Highest�median�incomes�over�$100,000�are�found�east�of�the�Site�and�toward�Loveland,�then�south�of�the�Site�toward�I�275�and�along�I�71.��Early�income�qualification�for�the�proposed�rental�product�on�the�Site�is�set�at�a�minimum�of�$65,000�and�above�for�a�smaller�unit�at�$1,050�per�month�rents.��The�basis�for�these�equivalent�incomes�is�derived�from�recent�regional�multi�family�assessments�and�national�renter�housing�expense�surveys�conducted�by�the�Bureau�of�Labor�and�Statistics.�

DEERFIELD�TOWNSHIP�RENTAL�HOUSING�MARKET�AHEAD�

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The�SMA/RT™�screenshot�above�plots�the�same�2012�block�groups�for�their�concentration�of�daytime�employees�without�qualification�of�incomes.��DFM�notes�higher�concentrations�over�2,000�surrounding�the�Site,�further�north�along�I�71�and�then�highly�concentrated�toward�Fairfield,�Springdale�and�Montgomery�in�block�groups�that�straddle�I�275.��Refer�to�the�pervious�Business�Summary�excerpts�for�shares�of�professional�employment�that�are�more�heavily�concentrated�in�the�Core�Area�and�near�the�Site.��

DEERFIELD�TOWNSHIP�RENTAL�HOUSING�MARKET�AHEAD�

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MULTI�FAMILY�PRODUCT�SEGMENTATION:�DEMAND�

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Rank Index1 5792 5003 3434 4185 260

6 3007 2248 2629 13210 245

11 21812 25613 9214 9415 105

16 7317 8218 9319 15020 71

222Total 93.5% 42.0%

Subtotal 7.2% 8.4%

40.6%57.�Simple�Living 1.0% 93.5% 1.4% 42.0%34.�Family�Foundations 1.2% 92.5% 0.8%

38.4%22.�Metropolitans 1.3% 91.3% 1.4% 39.8%19.�Milk�and�Cookies 1.8% 90.0% 2.2%33.�Midlife�Junction 1.9% 88.2% 2.6% 36.2%

33.6%Subtotal 15.3% 10.4%36.�Old�and�Newcomers 2.1% 86.3% 2.0%

29.4%24.�Main�Street,�USA 2.1% 84.2% 2.2% 31.6%32.�Rustbelt�Traditions 2.2% 82.1% 2.4%

25.4%30.�Retirement�Communities 4.1% 79.9% 1.6% 27.0%18.�Cozy�and�Comfortable 4.8% 75.8% 2.2%

Subtotal 27.1% 12.6%

21.2%29.�Rustbelt�Retirees 4.9% 71.0% 2.0% 23.2%12.�Up�and�Coming�Families 5.4% 66.1% 4.1%

15.0%14.�Prosperous�Empty�Nesters 5.5% 60.7% 2.1% 17.1%07.�Exurbanites 5.6% 55.2% 2.5%16.�Enterprising�Professionals 5.7% 49.6% 1.9% 12.5%

10.6%Subtotal 43.9% 10.6%06.�Sophisticated�Squires 6.5% 43.9% 2.5%

6.4%48.�Great�Expectations 7.1% 37.4% 1.7% 8.1%13.�In�Style 7.9% 30.3% 2.3%

2.4%02.�Suburban�Splendor 8.5% 22.4% 1.7% 4.1%04.�Boomburbs 13.9% 13.9% 2.4%

CumulativeTapestry�Segment Percent Percent Percent Percent

CumulativeHouseholds U.S.�Households

The�Grand�8.15�Borders Dinn�Focused�Marketing,�Inc.Drive�Time:�15�minutes Latitude:�39.30989

Longitude:��84.32027

2011�Tapestry�Segmentation�Area�Profile

Beyond�the�current�demographics,�DFM�employs�sophisticated�market�segmen�

tation�data�that�further�categorize�households�by�their�shared�lifestyle.���

�The�table�at�right�is�an�excerpt�of�the�top�ESRI®�Tapestry�market�segments�in�the�Outer�Area�by�households�(not�popula�tion).��These��market�segments�catego�rize�each�of�the�area�households�into�one�of�65�distinct�segments�by�a�wide�array�of�Census,�lifestyle,�financial�and�

other�public�and�private�data,�each�with�a�distinctive�lifestyle�name.�

�These�market�segments�at�right�are�

coded�by�their�relative�affluence�(e.g.,�Boomburbs,�ranked�first�at�right,�is�na�tionally�4th�of�65�in�household�afflu�

ence)�and�then�ranked�by�their�respec�tive�household�counts�within�the�15�

minute�drive�Outer�Area.��

DFM�has�highlighted�the�top�six�of�these��segments�that�index�highest�for�rental�households�in�bold�red.��DFM�will�then�ignore�a�smaller�share�of�renters�seen�

in�another�27�segments also foundwithin�15�minutes.�

�This�market�area�has�71%�of�its�total�104,040�householders�categorized�in�

only�ten�segments,�four�of�which�index�high�for�renters.��Some�86%�of�all�house�holders�fall�within�these�Top�20�Tapestry�market�segments,�adding�two�more�that�

index�high�for�rental�households.�

MULTI�FAMILY�PRODUCT�SEGMENTATION:�DEMAND�

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This�table�at�right�recasts�all�of�the�65�ESRI®�Tapestry�household�market�seg�ments�into�LifeMode�Groups�by�their�respective�counts�and�overall�share�

within�the�Core�Area�at�near�right�and�the�Outer�Area�at�far�right.��There�are�a�total�12�LifeMode�Groups,�with�the�first�

five�relevant�Groups�shown.��

These�respective�LifeMode�Groups�each�share�a�lifestyle�experience,�relative�to�the�Deerfield�Township�marketplace,�while�a�separate�Esri®�Tapestry�sum�

mary�grouping�by�Urbanization�share�a�common�locale�(not�provided).�

�For�the�Outer�Area,�DFM�has�shown�five�

of�six�key�renter�segments�in�bold�red��seen�in�a�spread�of�four�distinct�

LifeMode�Groups.��This�diversity�of�shared�experiences�bodes�well�for�the�

Client’s�planned�upscale�rental�product.��

MULTI�FAMILY�PRODUCT�SEGMENTATION:�DEMAND�

0.9% 7465 Social�Security�Set 361 0.3% 47 637 0.2% 4557 Simple�Living 1,063 1.0% 73 2,273

0.0% 050 Heartland�Communities 197 0.2% 9 441 0.2% 949 Senior�Sun�Seekers 0 0.0% 0 0

3.3% 26743 The�Elders 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0% 030 Retirement�Communities 4,293 4.1% 259 8,620

0.0% 029 Rustbelt�Retirees 5,064 4.9% 248 11,594 4.4% 24715 Silver�and�Gold 0 0.0% 0 0

14.0% 13214 Prosperous�Empty�Nesters 5,676 5.5% 261 13,468 5.1% 267

L5.�Senior�Styles 16,654 16.0% 127 37,033

0.0% 239 Young�and�Restless 55 0.1% 4 77

0.0% 036 Old�and�Newcomers 2,160 2.1% 102 4,232 1.6% 10127 Metro�Renters 0 0.0% 0 0

0.0% 023 Trendsetters 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0% 008 Laptops�and�Lattes 0 0.0% 0 0

L4.�Solo�Acts 2,215 2.1% 29 4,309 1.6% 30

0.0% 062 Modest�Income�Homes 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0% 054 Urban�Rows 0 0.0% 0 0

0.0% 051 Metro�City�Edge 707 0.7% 78 1,554 0.6% 6345 City�Strivers 0 0.0% 0 0

0.0% 022 Metropolitans 1,369 1.3% 92 2,895 1.1% 9320 City�Lights 0 0.0% 0 0

L3.�Metropolis 2,076 2.0% 37 4,449 1.7% 32

0.8% 2618 Cozy�and�Comfortable 5,023 4.8% 216 12,709 4.8% 21917 Green�Acres 853 0.8% 27 2,188

7.4% 34916 Enterprising�Professionals 5,959 5.7% 305 13,471 5.1% 30913 In�Style 8,234 7.9% 342 19,595

0.0% 011 Pacific�Heights 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0% 010 Pleasant�Ville 0 0.0% 0 0

18.2% 13909 Urban�Chic 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0% 0

L2.�Upscale�Avenues 20,069 19.3% 146 47,963

5.7% 23207 Exurbanites 5,846 5.6% 228 14,959

0.0% 006 Sophisticated�Squires 6,713 6.5% 260 18,476 7.0% 25505 Wealthy�Seaboard�Suburbs 0 0.0% 0 0

0.9% 7304 Boomburbs 14,413 13.9% 588 43,951 16.7% 60303 Connoisseurs 1,016 1.0% 77 2,450

1.1% 10902 Suburban�Splendor 8,862 8.5% 504 25,230 9.6% 50901 Top�Rung 1,043 1.0% 111 2,887

L1.�High�Society 37,893 36.4% 290 107,953 40.9% 300

Percent IndexTotal: 104,040 100.0% 263,623 100.0%

Tapestry�LifeMode�Groups 2011�Households 2011�PopulationNumber Percent Index Number

Latitude:�39.30989Longitude:��84.32027

2011�Tapestry�Segmentation�Area�Profile

The�Grand�8.15�Borders Dinn�Focused�Marketing,�Inc.Drive�Time:�15�minutes

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2848

3538444752586061

1219215964

24323334

2537425356

26314146

66 0Unclassified 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0%

0Rooted�Rural 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0%

0Crossroads 237 0.2% 16 593 0.2% 15Rural�Resort�Dwellers 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0%

3Midland�Crowd 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0% 0L12.�American�Quilt 237 0.2% 3 593 0.2%

0Rural�Bypasses 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0%

0Home�Town 766 0.7% 52 2,000 0.8% 54Southern�Satellites 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0%

16Prairie�Living 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0% 0Salt�of�the�Earth 451 0.4% 16 1,088 0.4%L11.�Factories�&�Farms 1,217 1.2% 12 3,088 1.2% 13

73Family�Foundations 1,237 1.2% 141 2,727 1.0% 119Midlife�Junction 1,926 1.9% 73 4,385 1.7%

93Rustbelt�Traditions 2,249 2.2% 89 5,131 1.9% 83Main�Street,�USA 2,215 2.1% 95 5,405 2.1%L10.�Traditional�Living 7,627 7.3% 91 17,648 6.7% 87

0City�Commons 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0% 0Southwestern�Families 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0%

77Urban�Villages 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0% 0Milk�and�Cookies 1,894 1.8% 82 4,983 1.9%

77Up�and�Coming�Families 5,608 5.4% 132 16,098 6.1% 131L9.�Family�Portrait 7,502 7.2% 81 21,081 8.0%

0High�Rise�Renters 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0%

0City�Dimensions 654 0.6% 73 2,078 0.8% 85NeWest�Residents 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0%

0Inner�City�Tenants 55 0.1% 4 79 0.0% 2Las�Casas 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0%

0Urban�Melting�Pot 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0% 0Industrious�Urban�Fringe 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0%

8International�Marketplace 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0% 0L8.�Global�Roots 709 0.7% 8 2,157 0.8%

397Great�Expectations 7,349 7.1% 415 16,199 6.1%

171Aspiring�Young�Families 492 0.5% 20 1,150 0.4% 19L7.�High�Hopes 7,841 7.5% 187 17,349 6.6%

Total: 104,040 100.0% 263,623 100.0%

Tapestry�LifeMode�Groups 2011�Households 2011�PopulationNumber Percent Index Number Percent Index

The�Grand�8.15�Borders Dinn�Focused�Marketing,�Inc.Drive�Time:�15�minutes Latitude:�39.30989

Longitude:��84.32027

2011�Tapestry�Segmentation�Area�Profile

0.0% 063 Dorms�to�Diplomas 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0% 055 College Towns 0 0.0% 0 0

0.0% 040 Military�Proximity 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0% 0

L6.�Scholars�&�Patriots 0 0.0% 0 0

This�table�at�right�continues�the�previous�Tapestry�Segmentation�Area�Profile�with�the�six�additional�Urbanization�groups.���

�DFM�notes�the�relative�concentrations�of�four�key�segments�against�their�respec�

tive�national�index:��

In�Style,�Enterprising�Professionals,��Prosperous�Empty�Nesters,�and�Great�Expectations�segments�(previous�page)�all�have�over�three�times�the�national�

share�of�these�households�found�close�to�the�Site.��The�other�Old�and�Newcomers�and�Metropolitans�index�similar�to�the�

national�shares.�����

The�following�pages�will�locate�the�high�est�concentrations�of�these�current,�tar�geted�rental�households�within�the�Core�

and�Outer�Demographic�Areas�by�US�Census�Block�Groups.�

MULTI�FAMILY�PRODUCT�SEGMENTATION:�DEMAND�

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Page�21�CONFIDENTIAL�

The�SMA/RT™�screenshot�above�plots�the�2011�concentration�of�renter�market�segment�Great�Expectations�with�7,349�total�households�and�some�3,821�renters� in�the�Outer�Area.��Their�concentration�is�shown�by�US�Census�block�group�per�the�legend�at�right.��These�householders�have�a�median�age�of�33�and�have�median�combined�household�incomes�of�$40,300.��Some�52%�rent�their�housing�nationally.��They�fall�within�the�High�Hopes�(L7)�LifeMode�Group,�marked�by�younger,�more�mobile�house�holders�willing�to�move�for�better�opportunities.��This�Outer�Area�segment�ranks�second�in�the�number�of�householders�and�first�among�renter�households.�

MULTI�FAMILY�PRODUCT�SEGMENTATION:�DEMAND�

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The�SMA/RT™�screenshot�above�plots�the�2011�concentration�of�key�renter�market�segment�Enterprising�Professionals�with�5,959�total�households�and�an�estimated�3,277�rental�households� found�in�the�Outer�Area.��Their�concentration�is�shown�by�US�Census�block�group�per�the�legend�at�right.��These�more�affluent�householders�are�have�a�median�age�of�32�and�median�combined�household�incomes�of�$69,800.��About�55%�nationally�rent�their�housing.��Like�the�In�Style�segment,�they�fall�within�the�Upscale�Venues�(L2)�LifeMode�Group,�normally�upscale�and�more�affluent�householders�seen�in�a�diversity�of�housing�choices.���This�Outer�Area�segment�ranks�third�in�the�number�of�householders�and�second�among�renter�households.�

MULTI�FAMILY�PRODUCT�SEGMENTATION:�DEMAND�

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The�SMA/RT™�screenshot�above�plots�the�2011�concentration�of�key�renter�market�segment�In�Style�with�8,234�total�householders�and�some�2,635�renters�found�in�the�Outer�Area�and�most�located�within�the�Core�Area.��Their�concentration�is�shown�by�US�Census�block�group�per�the�legend�at�right.��These�more�affluent�householders�are�have�a�median�age�of�40�and�median�combined�household�incomes�of�$70,750.��About�32%�nationally�rent�their�housing.��They�fall�within�the�Upscale�Venues�(L2)�LifeMode�Group,�normally�upscale�and�more�affluent�householders�seen�in�a�diversity�of�housing�choices.���This�Outer�Area�segment�ranks�first�in�the�number�of�total�households�and�third�for�rental�householders.�

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The�SMA/RT™�screenshot�above�plots�the�2011�concentration�of�renter�market�segment�Old�and�Newcomers�with�2,160�total�households�and�some�1,361�renters� in�the�Outer�Area.��Their�concentration�is�shown�by�US�Census�block�group�per�the�legend�at�right.��These�householders�have�a�median�age�of�37�and�have�median�com�bined�household�incomes�of�$44,600.��About�63%�rent�their�housing�nationally.��They�fall�within�the�Solo�Acts�(L4)�LifeMode�Group�marked�by�single�and�well�educated�professional�householders�with�a�penchant�for�an�urban�lifestyle.��This�Outer�Area�segment�ranks�fifth�in�the�number�of�householders�and�fourth�among�renter�households.�

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The�SMA/RT™�screenshot�above�plots�the�2011�concentration�of�renter�market�segment�Prosperous�Empty�Nesters�with�5,676�total�householders�and�851�renters� in�the�Outer�Area.��Their�concentration�is�shown�by�US�Census�block�group�per�the�legend�at�right.��These�householders�are�an�older�segment�with�a�median�age�of�49�and�have�median�combined�household�incomes�of�$67,300.��Only�15%�rent�their�housing�nationally,�although�the�emerging�housing�market�has�them�consider�new�downsiz�ing�choices.��They�fall�within�the�larger�Senior�Styles�(L5)�LifeMode�Group�whose�diverse�choice�of�new�housing�is�depends�upon�their�income.��This�Outer�Area�segment�ranks�fourth�in�the�number�of�householders�and�fifth�among�renter�households.�

MULTI�FAMILY�PRODUCT�SEGMENTATION:�DEMAND�

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Lastly,�the�SMA/RT™�screenshot�above�plots�the�2010�concentration�of�renter�market�segment�Metropolitans�with�1,369�total�households�and�some�548�renters�in�the�southern�reaches�of�Outer�Area.��Their�concentration�is�shown�by�US�Census�block�group�per�the�legend�at�right.��These�more�affluent�householders�are�typically�older�with�a�median�age�of�38�and�have�median�combined�household� incomes�of�$60,200.� �About�40%�rent�their�housing.� �They�fall�within�the�Metropolis� (L3)�LifeMode�Group,�a�uniquely�urban�group�that�reflect�diversity�in�attached�housing,�incomes�and�ages.��This�Outer�Area�segment�ranks�sixth�(last)�in�the�number�of�householders�and�sixth�again�among�renter�households.�

MULTI�FAMILY�PRODUCT�SEGMENTATION:�DEMAND�

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The�top�section�depicts�national�trends�from�Esri®�for�the�six�highlighted�segments�ranked�left�to�right�by�their�median�household�incomes�(green�text).��Below�that�are�median�ages,�growth�rates�and�share�of�renters.��The�second�section�contains�metrics�for�the�subject�Core�Area;�the�third�section�for�the�net�Outer�Area.��Total�seg�ment�householders�are�posted,�then�renter�eligible�brought�down.��Adjustments�are�made�for�an�SCI�DrillDown�Factor�and�local�median�incomes.��DFM�then�applies�a�Target�Income�Qualified�factor�from�estimates�of��median�incomes�above�a�$54,000�threshold�to�typically�afford�rents�at�or�above�$1,050�per�month.�A�second�market�growth�factor�assumes�a�planned�market�release�of�the�Site�in�two�years�amid�3.0%�rental�growth�rates.��Rolled�up,�the�total�six�segment�counts�of�Target�Renters�is�4,002�within�8�minutes�or�74%�of�the�adjusted�Renter�Pool.��Considering�a�25%�40%�range�of�the�incremental�qualified�Target�Renters�in�the�next�six�minutes�of�drive�area,�there�are�another�1,229�households,�some�48%�of�renters.��There�are�a�total�5,232�targeted,�existing�income–�and�lifestyle�qualified�rental�households�nearby.�

MULTI�FAMILY�PRODUCT�SEGMENTATION:�DEMAND�

TAPESTRY�MARKET�SEGMENT In�Style Enterprising Prosperous Metro� Old�& GreatProfessionals Empty�Nesters politans Newcomers Expectations

Tapestry�Code 13 16 14 22 36 48Median�HH�Income 70,800��������������� 69,800��������������� 67,300��������������� 60,200��������������� 44,600��������������� 40,300���������������Median�Age�Head�Hholder 40����������������������� 32����������������������� 49����������������������� 38����������������������� 37����������������������� 33�����������������������10yr�Annualized�Growth 1.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%General�Rental�Share 32% 55% 15% 40% 63% 52%

TOTALS

COREHOUSEHOLDERS 6,479����������������� 4,990����������������� 1,086����������������� ���������������������� ���������������������� ���������������������� 12,555����Core�Renter�Eligible 2,073����������������� 2,745����������������� 163�������������������� ���������������������� ���������������������� ���������������������� 4,981�����

1 SCI�DrillDown�Factor 8.0% 9.0% 5.0% 8.0% 8.0% 7.0%Core�Renter�Pool 2,239����������������� 2,992����������������� 171�������������������� ���������������������� ���������������������� ���������������������� 5,402�����

2 Median�HH�Income�adj �7% �7% �10% �5% �5% �5%3 Target�Income�Qualified 70% 70% 65% 50% 40% 35%4 Annual�Core�Renter�Growth 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%Core�Target�Renters 1,663����������������� 2,222����������������� 118�������������������� ���������������������� ���������������������� ���������������������� 4,002����� 74%

OUTER�HOUSEHOLDERS�(net) 1,755����������������� 969��������������������� 4,590����������������� 1,369����������������� 2,160����������������� 7,349����������������� 18,192����Outer�Renter�Eligible 562�������������������� 533�������������������� 689�������������������� 548�������������������� 1,361����������������� 3,821����������������� 7,513�����

1 SCI�DrillDown�Factor 9.0% 10.0% 7.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0%Outer�Renter�Pool 612�������������������� 586�������������������� 737�������������������� 602�������������������� 1,483����������������� 4,127����������������� 8,148�����

Outer�Target�Renters�(net) 455�������������������� 435�������������������� 508�������������������� 320�������������������� 629�������������������� 1,532����������������� 3,879����� 48%Drawn�to�Core�Markt 30% 40% 25% 35% 35% 30%

136�������������������� 174�������������������� 127�������������������� 112�������������������� 220�������������������� 460�������������������� 1,229�����

1 Per�2007�Social�Compact�DrillDown�of�Cincinnati Total�Qualified�Rental�Households 5,232����2 Local�income�adjustment�from�national�median3 Share�with�household�incomes�over $54,0004 Over�development�timeline�of�(yrs) 2.0

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MULTI�FAMILY�PRODUCT SEGMENTATION:�SUPPLY�

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$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

$0.70

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

$1.10

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

$1.50

$1.60

Mon

thly�Ren

ts�per�SF

Living�Area�in�Square�Feet

DEERFIELD�ATTACHED�RENTAL�HOUSING�MARKETRents�by�Size�by�Key�Competitive�MF�Set

Deerfield�Comp�Product

Deerfield�Comp�Trend

DFM�tracked�some�20�apartment�properties�within�the�previous�competitive�Housing�Area,�all�four�or�more�units,�with�a�total�of�4,625�rental�units.��Smaller�sites�of�less�than�100�units�were�built�in�the�1970’s,�while�the�more�scaled�sites�were�built�in�the�late�1980’s�or�late�1990’s.��Market�leaders�Somerset�Deerfield�and�Glenbridge�Manors�met�the�market�in�the�early�2000’s.��For�these�collected�sites,�each�of�their� floorplan�and�current�base�rents�are�plotted�above�by�unit�size�on�the�horizontal�axis�and�the�rents�per�SF�on�the�vertical.��DFM�notes�the�expected�downward�trend�of�rents�per�SF�per�size�for�the�smaller�units�below�1,100�SF�as�seen�in�most�regional�rental�markets.��Above�1,100�SF,�this�trend�not�only�flattens�but�increases�above�1,300�SF.�

MULTI�FAMILY�PRODUCT�SEGMENTATION:�SUPPLY�

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$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

$0.70

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

$1.10

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

$1.50

$1.60

Mon

thly�Ren

ts�per�SF

Living�Area�in�Square�Feet

DEERFIELD�ATTACHED�RENTAL�HOUSING�MARKETRents�by�Size�by�Key�Competitive�MF�Set

Sterling�Lakes Twin�Fountains

Stone�Bridge Nantucket

Bishops�Gate Harpers�Point

Glenbridge�Manors Somerset�Deerfield

Steeplechase Vlgs�Symmes�Crossing

Carriage�Square Cambridge�Park

Tall�Timber Timber�Ridge

Arbors�Montgomery McCauly�Crossing

This�is�the�previous�competitive�plot,�now�recast�to�depict�each�of�the�top�16�adjacent�apartment�choices�today.��The�bulk�of�these�project�and�units�are�clustered�along�the�previous�trendline,�again�trending�upward�above�1,100�SF�of�unit�size.��The�smaller�sites�pin�this�market�below�$1.00�per�SF:�Carriage�Square,�Stone�Bridge,�Steeple�chase,�Tall�Timber,�Cambridge�Park,�Timber�Ridge,�Arbors�of�Montgomery�and�McCauly�Crossing.��These�smaller�sites�total�just�over�1,500�units�or�about�a�third�of�the�available�apartments.��More�scaled�sites�have�both�larger�inventories�and�larger�units:�Nantucket,�Sterling�Lakes,�Twin�Fountains,�Bishops�Gate,�most�of�Harpers�Point�and�the�highest�market�positions�in�Glenbridge�Manors�and�Somerset�Deerfield.��All�but�two�of�these�sites�provides�well�over�300�units;�Somerset�Deerfield�has�500.��These�scaled�competitive�sites�above�provide�nearly�2,500�units,�most�over�1,000�SF.��

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$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

$0.70

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

$1.10

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

$1.50

$1.60

Mon

thly�Ren

ts�per�SF

Living�Area�in�Square�Feet

DEERFIELD�ATTACHED�RENTAL�HOUSING�MARKETRents�by�Size�by�Key�Competitive�MF�Set

Sterling�Lakes Twin�Fountains

Stone�Bridge Nantucket

Bishops�Gate Harpers�Point

Glenbridge�Manors Somerset�Deerfield

Steeplechase Vlgs�Symmes�Crossing

Carriage�Square Cambridge�Park

Tall�Timber Timber�Ridge

Arbors�Montgomery McCauly�Crossing

$700�mo.�rents $1,000�mo.�rents

$1,300�mo.�rents

This�is�the�previous�chart�with�the�addition�of�equivalent�rental�leasing�power�curves.��The�first�of�three�green�curves�traces�equivalent�rents�of�$700�per�month�along�various�floorplan�areas�and�rents�per�SF,�the�second�tracing�equivalent�rents�of�$1,000�per�month.��Clearly,�the�smaller�sites�and�the�smaller�plans�in�the�scaled�sites�are�positioned�between�$700�$1,000�per�month.��Between�the�$1,000�and�third�curve�of�$1,300,�most�product�is�over�$1,000�per�month.��Only�leaders�Glenbridge�Manors�and�Somerset�Deerfield�offer�smaller�rentals�in�this�range;�most�are�two�bedroom�units�over�1,100�SF.��Over�$1,300,�select�large�floorplans�from�four�sites�give�a�more�upscale�rental�choice.��Yet,�the�DFM�modeling�found�that�at�least�4,000�or�57%�of�adjacent�Core�rental�households�can�afford�rents�above�$1,050�per�month�and�over�5,200�total�households�when�a�minor�share�of�the�Outer�Area�qualified�rental�households�are�included.�

MULTI�FAMILY�PRODUCT�SEGMENTATION:�SUPPLY�

4,000�qualified�(74%)�

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The�SMA/RT™�screenshot�above�is�a�plot�of�the�competitive�rental�housing�choices�adjacent�to�The�Grand�Site�seen�in�five� “clusters”�of� concentration.��Ignoring�the�prominent�Somerset�Deerfield�site�just�north�of�The�Grand,�it�is�apparent�that�a�combination�of�commuter�routes�and�multi�family�zoning�have�cast�most�of�the�avail�able,�often�older�sites�into�a�market�scattered�away�from�the�Site.��Six�sites�are�found�along�Snider�Road�and�north�of�Western�Row.��Three�are�seen�to�the�south�at�Fields�Ertel�and�I�71,�while�three�more�are�due�east�along�Montgomery�Road�(SR22)�in�Landen/Loveland.��Further�south�are�three�sites�along�Kemper�Road�near�I�71�and�the�last�three�are�southwest�of�the�Site�in�Butler/Hamilton�County.��Not�shown�is�Arbors�at�Montgomery�at�Fields�Ertel�and�SR22.��The�only�other�new�multi�family�development� to�serve�this�area�is�a�224�unit�project�known�as�Latitude�at�Deerfield�Crossing,�located�by�the�orange�symbol�above.��The�following�graphics�will�depict�their�relative�rental�market�coverage�or�“footprint”�to�portray�this�scattered,�asymmetrical�rental�positioning.���

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The�SMA/RT™�screenshot�above�is�the�previous�graphic�with�each�of�the�plotted�sites�given�an�underlying�four�minute�drive�of�area� immediately�served�by�the�site.��The�result�above�lends�an�overlapped�market�“footprint”�of�access�and�renter�household�influence.��Clearly,�the�interstate�highways�and�Snider�Road�created�a�tethered�connection�for�most�of�the�competitive�set�of�sites.��Arbors�at�Montgomery�is�not�shown�due�to�its�“perimeter”�location�and�small�submarket�effect.�

MULTI�FAMILY�PRODUCT�SEGMENTATION:�SUPPLY�

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DFM�then�keeps�the�same�scale�and�reveals�a�plot�of�key�rental�competition,�the�location�of�nearly�300�absentee�owned�condominiums�or�townhomes�that�represent�a�conservative�measure�of�alternative,�likely�better�appointed�rental�choices�seen�in� orange� symbology.��The�numerals�above�many�plots�indicate�the�number�of�units�beneath�the�symbol�and�obscured�at�this�graphic�scale.��DFM�describes�this�plot�as�conservative� for� the�nature�of� the�data.��Upon�a�purchase,�the�accompanying�mortgage�is�noted�as�owner�occupied�or�absentee�owned.��These�units�were�most�likely�purchased�as�income�producing�rentals,�with�a�small�share�as�possible�second�homes.��This�plot�and�count�of�300�does�not�account�for�a�purchase�as�owner�occupied�that�is�later�leased�with�the�original�mortgage�in�place�after�the�purchaser�moves.��These�300�upscale�rental�choices�are�not�scattered�along�commuter�routes�and�are�more�symmetrically�located�relative�to�the�Site.�

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This�is�the�previous�chart�at�same�scale�and�rental�attached�homes.��In�addition,�DFM�has�now�plotted�the�location�of�650�other�absentee�owned�detached�homes�seen�in�dark�red�symbology� for�a�total�of�950�adjacent�and�upscale�rental�homes.��Again,�these�choices�are�clearly�more�symmetrical�when�compared�to�the�Site�and�the�previous�competitive�apartment�set.��The�following�pages�will�provide�a�lower�level�aerial�tour�of�the�competitive�apartment�sites.�

MULTI�FAMILY�PRODUCT�SEGMENTATION:�SUPPLY�

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The�SMA/RT™�screenshot�above�zooms�further�down�and�toggles�to�satellite�imagery.��The�inset�location�map�at�right�locates�this�aerial� in�orange�shade�within�the�previous�Housing�Area.��The�previous�competitive�apartment�sites�are�tagged�by�blue�pin.��Straddling�Western�Row,�these�sites�are�most�scaled�and�well�appointed�to�the�south,�seen�at�Sterling�Lakes�and�Twin�Fountains,�becoming�smaller�and�lower�inventory�north�of�Western�Row.��This�“ribbon”�of�apartment�sites� is�surrounding�by�single�family�housing�in�larger�subdivisions,�with�a�concentration�of�industrial�buildings�to�the�west�served�by�the�railroad�spur.�

MULTI�FAMILY�PRODUCT�SEGMENTATION:�SUPPLY�

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The�SMA/RT™�screenshot�above�moves�southeast�past�I�71�to�the�sites�that�straddle�Montgomery�Road�(SR22)�with�a�scaled�rental�choice�(Nantucket)�and�two�of�the�smaller,�older�apartment�sites.��Swinging�due�south�are�seen�a�concentration�of�product�at�Fields�Ertel�Road�and�I�71.��Village�at�Symmes�Crossing�is�a�scaled�site,�as�is�Wellington�Place,�thought�their�product�is�199�two�bedroom�townhomes�of�the�same�design.��Smaller�Madison�Way�is�58�units.��The�Grand�Site�and�the�adjacent�Somerset�at�Deerfield�is�seen�in�the�upper�left�of�the�aerial,�while�the�previous�new�multi�family�project�under�construction�for�224�units�is�located�in�orange�symbol�above.�

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The�SMA/RT™�screenshot�moves�further�south� into�Symmes�Township�to�locate�market�leader�Glenbridge�Manors,�the�well�known�Harpers�Point�and�the�successful�Bishops�Gate�at�Somerset�by�Towne�Properties.��McCauley�Crossing�is�shown�at�upper�left�as�a�reference�for�the�following�screenshot.�

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The�SMA/RT™�screenshot�moves�northwest�and� into�Butler�County�to� locate�the� last�remaining�competitive�sites.� �Note�the�same�McCauley�Crossing�site�as�before.��Only�Timber�Ridge�with�248�units�and�the�smaller�Tall�Timber�with�108�units�remain,�a�total�of�over�650�units�away�from�the�I�71�corridor.�

MULTI�FAMILY�PRODUCT�SEGMENTATION:�SUPPLY�

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PROPOSED�UPSCALE�MULTI�FAMILY�PRODUCT�

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PROPOSED�UPSCALE�MULTI�FAMILY�PRODUCT�

The�conceptual�site�design�for�The�Grand�is�provided�above�with�250�planned�rental�units�in�two�buildings�with�both�structured�parking�and�detached�garages,�a�com�mon�green,�pavilion�and�pool�amenities.��On�grade�parking�is�screened�from�the�major�arterials�by�the�three�story�buildings.�

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PROPOSED�UPSCALE�MULTI�FAMILY�PRODUCT�

The�conceptual�building�elevations�are�shown�above,�an�urban�take�on�taller�units�and�site�presence.��Landscaping�and�building�materials�lend�a�dense�symmetry�to�the�building�designs�and�nice�arrival�points.�

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This�Deerfield�Township�Attached�Housing�Market�Assessment�is�provided�for�the�sole�and�confidential�use�of:��

SAMPLE�ATTACHED�HOUSING�MARKET�ASSESSMENT��Any�disclosure�of� the�contents�of� this�Market�Assessment�without� their�expressed�permission� is�not�authorized.� �Any�analyses�herein�was�performed�with�proprietary�housing�market�performance�information,�ESRI®�aerial� imagery�and�SMA/RT™�Platform�software�licensed�by�Dinn�Focused�Marketing�and/or�Client.��Other�information�obtained�from�public�records�and�compiled�from�onsite�reviews�as�applicable�is�not�proprietary,�but�their�trends�and�conclusions,�especially�as�they�relate�to�Clients’�assets�or�pro�posed�development�lending,�are�strictly�confidential.��Unless�noted�otherwise,�any�field�survey�information�compiled�in�the�mar�ket�analyses�was�verified�from�a�second�source,�usually�in�the�form�of�a�personal�or�telephone�interview�with�another�industry�professional�having�knowledge�of�the�developer,�builder,�housing�product,�community�or�market�trend.��Dinn�Focused�Marketing�has�taken�great�care�to�gather,�compile�and�document�the�information�contained�in�this�Assessment�to�their�best�abilities�within�the�time�and�information�constraints�available.��There�is�a�small�margin�for�error�in�each�component�of�the� analyses,� but� these�errors� are� likely�housing�or� demographic�data�undercounts� and� conservative�market�boundaries� that,�when�combined,�would�have�a�negligible�to�conservative�effect�on�the�market�trends�described�and�their�inherent�value�to�Client.��Conclusions�drawn� from�this�Assessment,� if� any,�are�based�upon�Clients’�disclosures,� sample�or�previously�assembled housing�data�,�reasonable�industry�and�professional�assumptions,�and�our�twenty�five�years’�experience�in�residential�land�development,new�home�project�marketing�and�trusted�consultancy.��Clients�must�make�their�own�assumptions�and�impart�their�own�experi�ence�on�the�information�presented�in�order�to�validate�any�conclusions�drawn�or�even�draw�conclusions�of�their�own.��Any�errors�in�data�accuracy,�word�processing�and/or�report�formatting�are�not�intended�and�DFM�will�correct�any�reasonable�error�found�by�the�Client�upon�request.��It�has�been�our�professional�pleasure�to�provide�Client�with�this�focused�real�estate�information.��Thank�you.���Michael�J.�Dinn,�CRE�&�President� � �Dinn�Focused�Marketing,�Inc.� � � �[email protected]� � � � �513.313.1978� � � � � �

CONFIDENTIALITY�and�DISCLAIMERS�

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