doing the numbers: getting the other 50% of the story
DESCRIPTION
Presentation given at the annual convention of the New Mexico Press Women, April 17, 2010, in Albuquerque, New Mexico, USATRANSCRIPT
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1New Mexico Press Women – April 2010 -- Albuquerque
Doing the Numbers:
Getting the other 50% of the story
Tom JohnsonInstitute for Analytic Journalism
Santa Fe, New Mexicowww.analyticjournalism.com
t o m @ j t j o h n s o n . c o m
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Today?
Theory is your friend Arithmetic is your friend Examples of sophisticated
analytic journalism Fundamental analytic tools Using Excel to give stories
context
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“Theory?” said the journalist. “I don’ need no stinkin’ theory: I’m a WRITER!”
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There is nothing more practical than good theory
Nothing more practical
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Ecosphere as theory
The ecosphere is a theoretical concept, place, process
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Species in biosphere
MetabolismLatent EnergyIn
EnergyOut
Species in Biosphere:
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Datasphere
That theoretical place where all data -- in all its forms -- exists
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Journalists, et al., in Datasphere
Changing Datasphere:
DataIn Analysis Info
Out
MetabolismLatent EnergyIn
EnergyOut
Species in Biosphere:
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Changing Datasphere
Shift from I-o-P to 1s and 0s RRAW-P process model:
ResearchReportingAnalysisWritingPrint/Publish/Produce
Journalism is no longer breaking news; no longer just telling stories
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Changing Datasphere
Journalism’s future =Hub for transactions
Journalists’ future = bringing added value + enriching connections
Analysis and explanation of data (while telling the stories)
Requires new skills
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Major factors in changing datasphere
Vast quantities of digital data in various formats
Relative ease to get that data New tools to find, retrieve,
analyze and present that data, especially quantitative data
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New demands for journalists
High-level skills: search, retrieval, revisiting of data and data sites
Reasonable skills in quantitative analysis Basic statistics Basic visual statistics
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No more math-phobes
No, it is NOT “all about story.”
Little – if any -- room today for the mathematically phobic
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The quant. half of the story
ANY topic can have a quantitative angle
“Calculus for journalists” Change in amount Change in rate
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The quant. half of the story
1. Estimate2. Gather the data3. Clean the data (See Ver 1.0)
4. Count Sort, note range (high/low,
median, mean, mode)
5. Measure Proportion Change
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Fundamental Tools
Search, Save and Retrieve
GIS (Geographic Information Systems)
Data base applications Spreadsheet application
Excel OpenOffice Calc, et al. (free)
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Examples of heavy-weight Analytic Journalism…
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USAToday - Analytic Journalism Examples
NB: Great site of 2008 Presidential election maps: http://kottke.org/plus/2008-election-maps/
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Orange County, California Bus Study - Analytic Journalism Examples
Orange County, California
Bus Study
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Weather-Hurricane Andrew - Analytic Journalism Examples
Weather - Hurricane Andrew
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Light-weight examples (to produce daily stories)
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Resist journo’s tradition “If it’s stats, they must be correct.”
Remember: “All data is dirty”
“I KNOW what I’m doing!”Don’t expect to do all this alone; enlist colleague/editor/data rabbi
“I have a good memory.”Keep a “lab book” of methods
“Yeah, I always make my deadline.”Always sleep on data story
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Fundamental Tool
Spreadsheets can Help understand phenomena, often
in context Uncover new stories and angles on
old stories Help sell stories to your editor Help tell stories to your readers
Easy sorting of data Basic to high-end statistics Visual graphics tools
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Einstein card
Create a “lab book” Calculating Percentages Calculating Proportion Calculating Rates Calculating Ratios Calculating Inflation
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Freeport Traffic Horizontal #1
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Freeport Traffic Horizontal #1aStep 1a: “Clean” your data
Step 1b: “Interrogate” the data/database
Step 2: Source; Where did the data come from?
Step 3: What are the definitions?Have they remained constant?
Step 4: ESTIMATE the hard-data difference as real numbers and percent
Step 5: Calculate the differences.
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Freeport Traffic Horiz #2
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Freeport Traffic Horiz #3-Act. Diff
•“Intero-gate” the data
•Potential stories?
•What next?
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Freeport Traffic Horiz #4a - % of change#1 - Estimate!
#2 - Look to the Einstein Card!
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Freeport Traffic Horiz #4b - % of change
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Vertical Analysis- ProportionProportion= # of Parts/# of Whole Parts
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Vertical Analysis- Proportion
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Writing the darn thing
Pay attention to the difference between million and billion
Write like time flows – from left to right; from past to present
Three levels of using numbers
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Three levels when writing stats…
Data differences: 1-100? Use hard numbers
Data differences: 100-1,000? Use hard numbers and percent
Data differences >1,000? Use percentages
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Writing the darn thing Pay attention to the difference
between million and billion Write like time flows – from left
to right; from past to present Three levels of using numbers
In a story with stats, do not use the word “significant” casuallyDon’t confuse “correlation” with “causality
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Prepare for tomorrow
Join www.ire.org Subscribe to the IRE and NICAR
listservshttp://www.ire.org/membership/listserv.html
Think about “dashboards” (free tutorial) http://www.excelcharts.com/blog/products/demographic-dashboard/
GIS (more free tutorials)http://herzoggis.notlong.comhttp://www.esri.com/industries/media/business/journalism.html
ESRI data to IRE members at no cost.http://ow.ly/1nPf6
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Semi-advanced tips Excel Data Analysis For Dummies
http://www.dummies.com/store/product/Excel-Data-Analysis-For-Dummies.productCd-0764516612.html
Ten ways to clean your datahttp://office.microsoft.com/en-us/excel/HA102218401033.aspx
Text editing with spreadsheetshttp://forjournalists.com/cookbook/index.php?title=Text_editing_with_spreadsheets
Analytic Journalism and Political Races: Campaign Pollshttp://ajandpolraces.pbworks.com/Campaign-Polls
Excel Pivot Tables Tutorial: What is a Pivot Table and How to Make onehttp://chandoo.org/wp/2009/08/19/excel-pivot-tables-tutorial/
Distinctions between Excel and a database; Excel cautions and fixes at…http://www.stanford.edu/class/hrp223/2009/collection/collection_223_20090926.ppt
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This presentation – with hot links – found at:
www.slideshare.net/jtjohnson
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39New Mexico Press Women – April 2010 -- Albuquerque
Doing the Numbers:
Getting the other 50% of the story
Tom JohnsonInstitute for Analytic Journalism
Santa Fe, New Mexicowww.analyticjournalism.com
t o m @ j t j o h n s o n . c o m