Download - Worldwide CO2 Emission Reduction Project

7/27/2019 Worldwide CO2 Emission Reduction Project

1/292

WORLDWIDE CO2 EMISSION REDUCTION PROJECT.

WorldwideCO2EmissionReductionProjectSukhamay GangopadhyayBrisbane, Australia

[email protected]/01/2009


2/292


Preface

The blunt truth about the politics of climate change is that no country will want to sacrifice itseconomy in order to meet this challenge, but all economies know that the only sensible longterm way of developing is to do it on a sustainable basis. - Tony Blair. (Ref 27)

The international equity question arises from the costs of climate change itself and mitigationvarying greatly across countries. It is affected by the historical responsibility for currentgreenhouse gas emissions, which countries which were not responsible for whats in theatmosphere now think are very important. Currently rich countries dont think those issues

are very important.- Ross Garnaut. (Ref 28)

"Global warming may or may not be the great environmental crisis of the next century, but --regardless of whether it is or isn't -- we won't do much about it. We will (I am sure) argueferociously over it and may even, as a nation, make some fairly solemn-soundingcommitments to avoid it. But the more dramatic and meaningful these commitments seem,the less likely they are to be observed. Little will be done. . . . Global warming promises to

become a gushing source of national hypocrisy.'' -- Global Warming's Real InconvenientTruth By Robert J. SamuelsonPage A13, July 1997. (Ref 29)

The trouble with the global warming debate is that it has become a moral crusade when it'sreally an engineering problem. The inconvenient truth is that if we don't solve the engineeringproblem, we're helpless. Global Warming's Real Inconvenient Truth By Mr.Robert J.Samuelsonsaid in Wednesday, July 5, 2006. (Ref 29)

Continuous increase of CO2 in atmosphere is a really an engineering issue Since the
http://www.woopidoo.com/business_quotes/authors/tony-blair/index.htmhttp://www.woopidoo.com/business_quotes/authors/ross-garnaut/index.htmhttp://projects.washingtonpost.com/staff/email/robert+j.+samuelson/http://projects.washingtonpost.com/staff/email/robert+j.+samuelson/http://projects.washingtonpost.com/staff/email/robert+j.+samuelson/http://projects.washingtonpost.com/staff/email/robert+j.+samuelson/http://projects.washingtonpost.com/staff/email/robert+j.+samuelson/http://projects.washingtonpost.com/staff/email/robert+j.+samuelson/http://www.woopidoo.com/business_quotes/authors/ross-garnaut/index.htmhttp://www.woopidoo.com/business_quotes/authors/tony-blair/index.htm


3/292


Acknowledgement

During last 30 years project execution experience various lessons were learned. Someapproaches were highly positive, some were extremely negative, some decision were good,some were bad, some verdicts were unbiased, some verdicts biased, etc.However all these positive/ negative approaches, good/ bad decisions. Unbiased/ biasedverdicts, etc. when analysed for lesson learned, always yield positive input. To get thepositive outcome from the negative approaches confronted during the project, bad decisionsencountered during the projects, biased verdicts faced during the project, etc. need to be

analysed in conjunction with the decision making project stakeholder along with the contest& situation when these approaches/ decision/ verdicts were made. Proper analysis withcorrect perspective will always yield positive outcome for future projects.

I would like to thanks & acknowledge all people, I interacted during various project execution,from whom various lessons were learned. It is not possible to indicate all names here. Iapologise if any one is missed out.

Mr. Aditya A SMr. Banerjee PMr. Banerjee S NMr. Bhattacharya A KMr. Biswas S RMr. Burstinghaus PMr. Chakraborty P

Mr Chang T S

Mr. Martindale BMr. Mazumdar PMr. Mitra P SMr. Mukherjee KMr. Mukherjee P KMr. Mukkaddam I AMr. Orupold M

Mr Pal S


4/292


Index

Title Page

Project Introduction 6Background analysis 8Project stake holders 13Present Energy Consumption Situation 16

Coal Consumption 16

Oil Consumption 19Natural Gas Consumption 23

Sectoral Energy Consumption Patterns 29Net Electric Power 30Thermal Electricity 32Hydro Electricity 34Nuclear Electricity 36Renewable Electricity 38

Various Electricity consumption patterns 40Manufacturing Sector 47

Chemical & Petrochemical Industries 48Iron & Steel Industries 50Cement Industries 51Paper & Pulp Industries 53Aluminium Industries 54

Transportation Sector 57


5/292


List of Tables:-Table-1: Countries with Development Index (DI) 0.9 & above 9Table-2: Top 50 countries for per capita average (1980-2005) CO2emission 10Table-3 : Ambient Air Quality 1958-2007 11Table- 4 : Ambient CO2concentration and CO2Emission 12Table-5: Top 50 countries for Coal consumption 17Table-6: Top 25 countries for Coal consumption (1980 -2005) 18Table-7: Top 50 countries for per capita oil consumption 20Table-8: Top 25 countries for Oil consumption (1980-2005) 21Table-9 : 40 largest oil & N Gas producing countries 22

Table-10: Top 50 countries for per capita Natural Gas consumption 23Table-11: Top 25 countries for Natural Gas consumption (1980-2005) 25Table-12: Top 25 countries for each type of fossil fuel consumption arranged 26

according to their average development index 1980-2003Table-13: Top 25 countries for Net Electricity consumption (1980-2005) 31Table-14: Top 25 countries for thermal Electricity consumption (1980-2005) 33Table-15: Top 25 countries for hydro Electricity consumption (1980-2005) 35Table-16: Top 25 countries for Nuclear Electricity consumption (1980-2005) 37

Table-17: Top 25 countries for Renewable Electricity consumption (1980-2005) 39Table-18: Consolidated list of countries of Table 13 to 17. 41Table-19: Top 50 countries with per capita electricity consumption & % distribution 42Table -20: Estimation of per capita CO2emission from Thermal Electricity by 2050 45Table 21 : Global Chemical and Petrochemical Industry, 2005 (Including Electricity) 48Table 22 : Global Chemical and Petrochemical Industry, 2005 (Excluding Electricity) 49Table 23 : Global Steel Production, 2006 50

Table 24 : Global Cement Production 2006 52


6/292


Project Introduction

Climate change is no doubt a critical issue and awareness of the same has been noticed insome developed/ developing countries. Climate change issue is a worldwide issue. Earthatmosphere is common and controlling the emission of greenhouse gas only for somecountries will never yield the desired worldwide result. We need worldwide awareness onthis critical climate change issue and worldwide agreement on the control & monitoring ofclimate change. CO2emission is considered as one of the most critical component forclimate change. CO2emission results from various sectors e.g. electricity generation sector,transportation sector, manufacturing, sector, etc. Hence targeting a particular sector only,

e.g. electricity generation sector, to reduce the CO2emission leading to climate changeimpact will be biased and hence will be difficult to achieve. All the sectors producing CO2emission for all countries need to be analysed and possible solution / alternative methods/improvement process to reduce CO2emission needs to be formulated & accepted worldwidefor any success.

Carbon emission control & monitoring on worldwide basis i.e. worldwide CO2emissionreduction project is the largest project world has ever seen or will see.

Any project success depends on the 5Ts i.e. Transparency, Target, Timetable, TeamworkandTrust.

Transparency Any project involves number of stakeholders. So it is important to identifyall the stakeholders of the project and establish agreed DOR (division of responsibility) for allthe stakeholders with respective responsibility, authority & accountability. Also within each

stakeholders acti ities n mbers of departments are in ol ed and hence same philosoph


7/292


existing facilities owner) should be clearly defined. In some cases, certain portion of existingfacilities/ other contractors is required to be operational for testing the scope covered in aparticular EPC contractor. The noise contribution of the existing portion/ other contractportion may be so high that it may not be possible to maintain the far field noise levelspecified by statutory bodies. This results in lot of discussion/ argument resulting in wastageof time, the costliest commodity of the project. DOR should clearly define target for eachstakeholder to avoid project time wastage. Upfront agreements, on various projectstakeholders target, results in smooth project execution with no/ minimum wastages ofproject resource/ time.This can only be achieved by setting proper target for each stakeholder & upfront agreementon respective target/ responsibilities between all project stakeholders.

Timetable Agreed DOR should also clearly define each activity/ project goal(s) completiontime i.e. timetable for each project stakeholder. Some of the project activities involve federal/state/ local bodies. In EPC contract the responsibility of getting federal/ state/ local bodies/consultants approval is defined as EPC contractors responsibility. Sometimes due to theirinternal resource/ other problems, the federal / state/ local statutory bodies/ consultantdelays the approval or to avoid delay makes partial comments/ request clarification so thatthey can review it again on receipt of the additional information. This avoids delay on their

parts but the project as a whole is subjected to delay and normally such delays are attributedto EPC contractor. This is not a transparent system of timetable and EPC contractor isbound to fight if such delay is attributed to him. This results in cost & time wastage. This canonly be avoided by setting proper timetable for each stakeholder & upfront agreementbetween all project stakeholders.

Teamwork- project success depends on teamwork. Teamwork is required in both fields -

b t & ithi th t k h ld E h j t t k h ld i t d t t ib t


8/292


Trust among the stakeholders can make a project success even through there is somelacuna in DOR, target & timetable.Like any other project, Worldwide CO2emission reduction project also requires these 5 Tsfor its success. We need transparent analysis of present CO2emission level of each projectstakeholders with respect to various sources of CO2emission, their sectoral uses pattern,present CO2emission level, etc.

Based on the above transparent analysis, we need to establish a transparent target of CO2emission reduction level of each project stakeholders without hampering the stakeholderssocio-economic development. After transparent target setting, we need to establish a

transparent timetable of targeted CO2 emission reduction level of each projectstakeholders.The acceptance of the above established transparent target& timetableby all the projectstakeholders is expected to ensure teamwork. As this CO2emission reduction projectmoves forward, teamwork &trustwill be demonstrated through mutual cooperationbetween developed countries / developing/ underdeveloped/ poor countries.This will make Worldwide CO2emission reduction project a success.

Background Analysis:-When we learnt the use of fire, we started carbon discharging dioxide in the atmosphere.However the amount was negligible and no one bothered. Over the years, we havegraduated from the simple fire utilization to electricity, gas/ oil heating, luxury cars, etc. andwith each step of development; carbon dioxide emission in the atmosphere has increased.Some figures will help to understand the situation.In 1980 world population was 4.4 billion; amount of CO2release was 18330 M Tons/ Year

I 2005 ld l ti 6 5 billi t f CO2 l 28193 M T / Y


9/292


The actual fact is that the energy consumption & hence CO2emission was increased morerapidly by developed & developing regions/ countries during the period 1980-2005 . See fig-1. In 1980, there was not a single country having development index of 0.9 or more while in2003, there were about 28 countries having development index of 0.9 or more. See table-1.

Table-1: Countr ies wi th Development Index (DI) 0.9 & above

Region country 1980 2003 Region country 1980 2003

Europe Austria 0.858 0.936 Europe Slovenia .. 0.904

Europe Belgium 0.863 0.945 Europe Spain 0.854 0.928

Europe Denmark 0.882 0.941 Europe Sweden 0.874 0.949

Europe Finland 0.861 0.941 Europe Switzerland 0.89 0.947

Europe France 0.869 0.938 Europe UnitedKingdom

0.854 0.939

Europe Germany 0.861 0.93 Asia & Oceania Australia 0.866 0.955

Europe Greece 0.85 0.912 Asia & Oceania Hong Kong, 0.8 0.916

Europe Iceland 0.886 0.956 Asia & Oceania Japan 0.882 0.943

Europe Ireland 0.826 0.946 Asia & Oceania Rep. ofKorea

0.741 0.901

Europe Italy 0.858 0.934 Asia & Oceania New Zealand 0.854 0.933

Europe Luxembourg 0.851 0.949 Asia & Oceania Singapore 0.761 0.907

Europe Netherlands 0.879 0.943 North America Canada 0.886 0.949

Europe Norway 0.888 0.963 North America UnitedStates

0.887 0.944

Europe Portugal 0.802 0.904 Middle East Israel 0.819 0.915


10/292


It is evident from fig-2 that North America, Europe & Eurasia regions dominated in per capitaCO2emission during period 1980-2005. Per capita CO2emission from developing &underdeveloped regions like Asia (excepting a few countries), Africa were well be low theworld average.Table-2 indicates the top 50 countries (with average population more than 500,000) havingaverage highest per capita CO2emission during period 1980-2005.

Table-2: Top 50 count ries for per capita average (1980-2005) CO2emission

Ave Per Capita Ave Per Capita

CO2Emission (tons/ person/ year) CO2Emission (tons/ person/ year)

(1993-2005) (1993-2005)

Region Country (T/P/Y) Region Country (T/P/Y)

Middle EastUnited ArabEmirates 49.118 Europe Norway 9.297

Middle East Qatar 46.957 Asia & Oceania New Zealand 9.148

Middle East Bahrain 31.093 Asia & Oceania Japan 9.059

Asia & Oceania Singapore 25.835 Europe Greece 8.959

Middle East Kuwait 24.762 Asia & Oceania Korea, South 8.887

North America United States 19.895 Africa South Africa 8.732

Central & SouthAmerica

Trinidad andTobago 18.677 Asia & Oceania Hong Kong 8.723

Asia & Oceania Australia 17.715 Africa Libya 8.546

North America Canada 17.441 Europe Bulgaria 7.955

Europe Netherlands 15.382 Europe Poland 7.953

Europe Belgium 13.005 Middle East Oman 7.933

Middle East Saudi Arabia 12.929 Europe Cyprus 7.916

E i E t i 12 616 E A t i 7 658


11/292


It is also evident that all most all the countries appearing in Table-2 are either have reacheddeveloped country status or have large reserve of primary energy (coal/ oil/ gas).This demonstrates that the developed countries contributed maximum to CO2emission till2005. As the other countries develop, they will add more & more per capita CO2emission.The process will continue till all the countries of the world reaches the Developed Countrystatus. Then the increase of CO2 emission will be mainly dependent on population growth.

Present days per capita average CO2emission by the developed countries (Countrieshaving Development Index of 0.9 or more) is about 15.2 tons/ person/ year. If all countries ofthe world reaches development index of minimum 0.9 by 2050 and CO2emission goes

uncontrolled, considering expected worldwide population of about 9.2 billion in 2050, theestimated CO2emission in 2050 will be around 140,000 Million Tons which is about 762% ofworldwide CO2emission in 1980.

Table-3 indicates the atmospheric CO2constituent variation over years.

Table-3 : Ambient Air Quality 1958-2007

Year CO2concentration Source[ppmv]

1958 315.56

1967 322.88

1977 334.53

1987 349.24

1996 363.99

D. R. Lide, CRC Handbook ofChemistry and Physics, 83th Edition(CRC Press LLC,Boca Raton, 2002)

2007 377.30 Ref -6

Fi 3 i di h bi CO i l l ( ) i i d i i d 19 8


12/292


concentration is expected to reach much much higher level. We need to control CO2emission to maintain clean atmosphere for future generation. This will give breathing time tofuture generation to explore various available options and decide on best option to addressthe Climate change issue of their time.Fig-4 indicates the year wise worldwide CO2emission in million metric tons during the period1980-2005

Fig -4 : Worldw ide CO2 emission (Mill ion Metric tons) during 1980-2005

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

CO

2emission(MillionMetricTons)

Table- 4 indicates the ambient CO2concentration level (ppmv) and CO2emission level


13/292


Person/ Year (T/P/Y) same as the average per capita CO2emission of present days 28countries with development index 0.9 or more.

With expected world population of 9.2 billion by 2050, the expected CO2emission in 2050will be about 140000 million metric tons per year. This is about 762 % increase in CO2emission (of 1980 level) in every year from 2050. If we consider linear growth for population& development up to 2050, the total cumulative CO2emission during period 2005-2050 willbe around 3777900 million metric tons which is about 650% of total CO2emission resultedduring 1980-2005. This will lead to atmospheric CO2concentration level increase by 166% in

2050 while same in 2005 was about 20%. This indicates the magnitude of CO2emissionissue.

Even though lot of countries are of the opinion that natural calamity e.g. large scale bush fire,volcanos, etc. create more CO2emission compared to CO2emission created by mankind,but such argument has no merit. We have to reduce the CO2emission to the extent possibleto leave a clean atmosphere to our future generation.

This is no doubt, a real concern. The CO2release by any region and/ or country does notremain within the country. It gets into the total earths atmosphere and hence this is a globalproblem affecting all the countries of the world. All countries of the world irrespective of thesize, economic status, political differences, etc, are equal stakeholders of this worldwide CO2emission reduction project.

This is largest worldwide project considering past and most probably future.


14/292


enjoys some additional advantages over the others since all the stakeholders doesnt workon the same basis i.e. fixed cost, fixed time, accountability, etc.

In project execution, the Owner/ Financer indicates the terms & conditions for the project inRFQ/ FRP document and it gets finalized mutually during contract signing. Even for suchprojects, some times it takes months/ years to finalize the contract. Even with definedcontract conditions, defined scope & schedule with LD (Liquidated Damage), the projectencounters various contractual issues which often drags to court for settlement.

The goal of CO2emission reduction project is to limit the CO2emission within a specified

time to a specified level. All the countries of the world are stakeholders of this project. Unlikeother projects, in this project all stake holders will have same authority, responsibility &accountability irrespective of their size, population, development status, etc.

In this project, there is no room for unaccountable role for any stakeholder. Normally inproject execution some times it happens that one particular stakeholder raises certain minor/ document format concern/ issues while reviewing documents. This is sometimes to justifytheir presence. On lighter side, it can be mentioned- Have any one has ever seen any

document approved by external agencies?. Once those concerns are addressed withsufficient technical / contractual justification documents, that particular stakeholder normallystates that under the present conditions, documents & response are accepted. But in thisprocess of clarification, meetings, etc, the project time is lost and this particular stakeholderis not accountable for this project delay.

There in no room for such defunct/ unaccountable role in this worldwide CO2emission

d ti j t All t k h ld h t h l ibilit ith l


15/292


One way of fixing the goal is it to set the reduction target by the super powers and force allcountries to follow the same. This process will lead to project failure. Even if the superpowers force some countries to adopt the resolution, with time the implementation processwill be a failure. Even super powers (some stakeholders of the project) also have to considertheir internal political situation & timing to decide on their internal policy declaration. Whenthis declaration comes, the political situation of other countries (also project stakeholders)may not be suitable for them to declare the regulation. The political situation can never beuniform across the world. Only complete transparency in policy can override politicalsituation/ differences.

CO2reduction project requires complete transparency in analysing the each stakeholderspresent situation which will lead to the next step of target setting.

CO2emission primarily is resulted from energy consumption mainly fossil fuel consumption.All countries require energy consumption to fulfil their basic needs.

Energy consumption is needed by various sectors e.g. residential, office. Manufacturing,transportation, service sector, etc.

Residential energy consumption constitutes of electricity for lights, appliances, fan / heater,computers, etc. oil/ gas for cooking, heating, etc.

Manufacturing sector like steel, Aluminium, paper, cement, refinery, energy extraction (coal/oil/ gas etc.), finished goods production, construction of plants, etc. requires considerableenergy consumption. With global sourcing, manufacturing of a particular country not only

f lfil it i t l d d b t l l b l d d


16/292


Present Energy consumption si tuation.

CO2emission in nature occurs in two ways. Considerable amount of CO2is added in thenature from Volcano, bush fire, etc. Human started adding CO2in the nature as soon as welearnt use of fire.

In past the amount of CO2added by human was negligible compared to the CO2added bynature itself. However as we progressed through various stages of development, the humancontribution to CO2emission in nature increased. Today CO2addition from nature is muchsmall compared to CO2addition by human.

Today CO2addition from nature is much small compared to CO2addition by human.

As countries develop, their per capita energy consumption will increase as well as the percapita CO2emission. In 1980 world has no country having development index of 0.9 or more.In 2003, 28 countries out of the total 209 countries reached development index of 0.9 ormore. Some day todays poorest country will reach developed status.

Primary energy constitute of three major element i.e. coal, oil & natural gas. Depending ontheir availability and the economic status of the country, each country uses these primaryenergies to meet their day-to-day energy requirement including electricity generation. CO2emission from hydro-electricity is marginal. Electricity produced from nuclear, solar, wind,geothermal, etc. energy are considered as CO2emission free. However construction ofnuclear plants, etc. has long gestation periods and construction of these plants requireslarge amount of energy consumption leading to CO2emission.


17/292


Table-5: Top 50 countries for Coal consumption

Ave Per Capi ta Ave Per Capita

Coal Cons Coal Cons(1993-2005) (1993-2005)


Eurasia Estonia 11.229 Eurasia Ukraine 1.589

Asia & Oceania Australia 7.036 Asia & Oceania Korea, North 1.550

Europe Czech Republic 6.897 Europe Finland 1.496

Europe Greece 6.751 Asia & Oceania Hong Kong 1.477

Europe Poland 4.353 Asia & Oceania Korea, South 1.465

Eurasia Kazakhstan 4.241 Europe Spain 1.309

Europe Macedonia 4.211 Asia & Oceania Japan 1.278

Europe Bulgaria 4.198 Asia & Oceania China 1.230

Europe Montenegro 4.073 Europe UnitedKingdom

1.226

Europe Serbia 4.073 Europe Belgium 1.211

Africa South Africa 4.026 Europe Turkey 1.177North America United States 3.731 Asia & Oceania New

Caledonia1.155

Europe Germany 3.497 Europe Luxembourg 1.137

Europe Slovenia 2.927 Europe Netherlands 0.938


Virgin Islands,U.S.

2.718 Europe Ireland 0.834

Asia & Oceania Mongolia 2.260 Europe Austria 0.832

E Sl ki 2 160 A i & O i N 0 723


18/292


Table -6 lists the worlds top 25 coal energy consuming counties

Table-6: Top 25 countries for Coal consumpt ion (1980 -2005)

Country

CoalConsump.As %

of worldPopulation As% of world

CoalconsumerRank

Ratio- % Coal cons/% world population

Australia 2.493 0.320 1 7.785

G 1 327 0 187 2 7 094

Fig-5 : Region w ise average Coal consumption during 1980-2005

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

CoalConsumptionas%o

fw

orldtotal

North America Central & South America Europe Eurasia Middle East A frica Asia & Oceania

North America: -20.94% of world coal consumption with 6.91 % of world populationSouth & Central America-0.67% of world coal consumption with 6.84 % world population

Europe-20.23% of world coal consumption with 10.25 % world populationEurasia-8.22% of world coal consumption with 5.20 % world population

Middle East-0.24 % of world coal consumption with 2.59 % world populationAfrica-3.48% of world coal consumption with 12.15 % world population

Asia & Oceania-46.22% of world coal consumption with 56.06 % world population


19/292


It is evident that some regions e.g. North America, Europe, Eurasia have more average percapita coal consumption than other regions e.g. Africa, Asia & Oceania during the period1980-2005. In fact per capita coal consumption of North America & Europe is much morecompared to world average per capita coal consumption. Considering the period 1980- 2005,table -6 lists the top 25 countries having the highest ratio of Total average coal consumptionas % of world coal consumption during 1980-2005/ Total average population as % of worldpopulation during 1980-2005. Hypothetically, for uniformity of worldwide coal consumption,this ratio should be around 1.

There are about 11 countries having this ratio more than 2 and out of these five countrieshave development index of 0.9 or more. Coal resource is available in most of the countries

listed in table -6. It is normal for countries to use their internal available energy source formeeting their demand instead of using other costly energy resources and/ or exportedprimary energy sources.

Even the most developed country of today, started its energy consumption by burning coal. Theystarted commercial power generation having very inefficient process. Their power generation processefficiency was improved over the years. They started power generation with coal. Over the yearsafter some development, they migrated to power generation from other energy sources like oil,

natural gas, etc. Now all new projects in developed countries aim with super critical boilers. Suchimprovements definitely reduce the CO2emission / kWh but the initial investment cost goes up.Developed & developing countries because of their present economic status, can afford that. But thatnot true for low income group country.

We have to remember that Todays developed countries have already done large scale damage

worldwide on CO2emission account long back compared to the present-day underdeveloped/ lowincome group countries.


20/292


The world average oil consumption is about 4.598Barrels/ Person/ Year. Table -7 presentthe top 50 countries based on the average per capita oil consumption during period 1993-2005.

Table-7: Top 50 countries for per capita oil consumption

Ave Per Capi ta Ave Per Capi ta

Oil Cons (Barrels/ Person/Year) Oil Cons (Barrels/ Person/Year)

(1993-2005) (1993-2005)


Europe Gibraltar 293.600 Europe Netherlands 19.567

Central &South America

Virgin Islands, U.S. 253.973 Central &South America

Antigua andBarbuda

19.229


Netherlands Antilles 121.663 Central &South America

Puerto Rico 18.741

Asia & Oceania Singapore 59.575 Europe Norway 17.682

Middle East United Arab Emirates 51.435 Asia & Oceania New Caledonia 16.988

Asia & Oceania Guam 47.751 Central &South America

Montserrat 16.944

Middle East Kuwait 41.761 Asia & Oceania Australia 16.490

Europe Luxembourg 39.719 Asia & Oceania Korea, South 16.183Europe Faroe Islands 34.648 Europe Malta 16.065


Aruba 31.482 Asia & Oceania Japan 15.921

Asia & Oceania Nauru 30.820 Europe Sweden 15.636

North America Saint Pierre andMiquelon

29.505 Middle East Israel 15.035

Central &

S th A i

Bahamas, The 28.280 Africa Libya 14.997


21/292


Table- 8 lists the top 25 countries having largest average total oil consumption as % of worldtotal.

Table-8: Top 25 countries for Oil consumpt ion (1980-2005)

C t

Oil Consump. As %

f ld

PopulationAs % of

ld

Oil consumer

R k

Ratio- % Oilcons/ % world

l ti

Fig - 6 : Region wise average Oil consumption dur ing 1980-2005

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

OilConsumptionas%o

fworldtotal

North America Central & South America Europe Euras ia Middle Eas t Africa Asia & Oceania

North America: -30.65 % of world oil consumption with 6.91 % of world populationSouth & Central America-6.57 % of world oil consumption with 6.84 % world populationEurope-21 % of world oil consumption with 10.25 % world population

Eurasia-5.51 % of world oil consumption with 5.20 % world populationMiddle East-6.28 % of world oil consumption with 2.59 % world populationAfrica-3.31 % of world oill consumption with 12.15 % world population

Asia & Oceania-26.69 % of world oil consumption with 56.06 % world population


22/292


With the present trend of global outsourcing, developed countries will try to outsource lowtechnology products and/ or components of high technology products fromunderdevelopment/ poor countries resulting in their economic growth & development and inthe process per capita energy consumption of these underdeveloped/ poor countries willincrease. We need a transparent process to capture such CO2emission associated withglobal outsourcing without penalizing the source countries.

It is evident that some regions e.g. North America, Europe, have more average per capita oilconsumption than other regions e.g. Africa, Asia & Oceania during the period 1980-2005.In fact per capita oil consumption of North America & Europe is much more compared to

world average per capita oil consumption.

Considering the period 1980- 2005, table -8 lists the top 25 countries having the highest ratioof Total average oil consumption as % of world coal consumption during 1980-2005/ Totalaverage population as % of world population during 1980-2005. Hypothetically, foruniformity of worldwide oil consumption, this ratio should be around 1. But there are about 15countries having this ratio more than 2 and out of these 13 countries have developmentindex of 0.9 or more.

Table -9 indicates the 40 largest oil producing countries.

Table-9 : 40 largest oil & N Gas producing countries

Country 2007 Production Country 2007 Production Country 2007 Production

103bbl/ day 10

3bbl/ day 10

3bbl/ day

Saudi Arabia 10234 Iraq 2094 Colombia 543

Russia 9876 Libya 1845 Ecuador 512


23/292


Natural Gas Consumption:

Global average Natural Gas (N Gas) consumption has increased from 52890 Billion Cubic

Feet in 1980 to 103700 Billion Cubic Feet in 2005. This is a 96% increase in Natural Gasconsumption while world population has increased by 47%. Again, this increase again is notuniform for all countries in the world.

In fact the increase in natural gas consumption was more in the developed countries & oil/natural gas producing countries compared to the undeveloped/ poor countries.

The world average N Gas consumption for period 1980-2005 is about 14605Cubic Feet /Person/ Year. Table -10 present the top 50 countries based on the highest average percapita oil consumption during period 1993-2005.

Table-10: Top 50 countries for per capita Natural Gas consumption

Ave Per Capi ta Ave Per Capita

N Gas Cons ((Cubic Feet/person/year) N Gas Cons ((Cubic Feet/person/year)

(1993-2005) (1993-2005)

Region Country Ft3/P/Y Region Country Ft3/P/YMiddle East Qatar 687038 Europe Germany 39286

Middle East United Arab Emirates 474759 Eurasia Azerbaijan 39030

Middle East Bahrain 474674 Africa Libya 36278


Trinidad and Tobago 321866 Asia & Oceania Malaysia 35853

Middle East Kuwait 143033 Eurasia Kazakhstan 35543

Asia & Oceania Brunei 133780 Europe Austria 35186


24/292


For about 52 countries per capita natural gas consumption is more than the world averageper capita natural gas consumption. 38 countries per capita oil consumption is more thantwice the world average per capita natural gas consumption during period 1993-2005.

Surprisingly worlds two largest populated countries which are in rapid development path arenot appearing in the above list. But their per capita natural gas consumption is bound toincrease in the coming years. This will continue for other underdeveloped & poor countriesalso.

Ultimately all countries will reaches same level of development some day and per capita

natural gas consumption of all countries may eventually reach same level within a band ofworld average.

Fig -7 indicates the Total region wise average Natural Gas consumption during period 1980-2005. It is evident that some regions e.g. North America, Europe, Eurasia & Middle Easthave more average per capita oil consumption than other regions e.g. Africa, Asia & Oceaniaduring the period 1980-2005.

In fact per capita N Gas consumption of North America, Europe, Eurasia and Middle East ismuch higher compared to world average per capita N Gas consumption.

Fig-7: Region w ise average Natural Gas consumption during 1980-2005No rt h America Central & So uth America Euro pe Eurasia M iddle East A frica Asia & Oceania

North America: -30.53 % of world oil consumption with 6.91 % of world populationSouth & Central America-3.687 % of world oil consumption with 6.84 % world population

Europe-19.59 % of world oil consumption with 10.25 % world population

i f ld il i i h ld l i


25/292


Table-11: Top 25 countries for Natural Gas consumpt ion (1980-2005)

Country

N GasConsumption. As %

of world

PopulationAs % of

world

N Gasconsumer

Rank

Ratio- % N Gascons/ % world

population

United ArabEmirates 1.264 0.036 1 35.539

Netherlands 2.005 0.279 2 7.192

Canada 3.474 0.526 3 6.608

Russia 16.958 2.661 4 6.374

Saudi Arabia 2.018 0.330 5 6.122

United States 25.526 4.762 6 5.360

Uzbekistan 1.739 0.395 7 4.399

Ukraine 3.403 0.918 8 3.705

UnitedKingdom 3.564 1.066 9 3.345

Venezuela 1.108 0.371 10 2.985

Australia 0.905 0.320 11 2.826

Malaysia 0.878 0.342 12 2.562

Italy 2.662 1.046 13 2.545

Germany 3.671 1.471 14 2.496Iran 2.411 1.048 15 2.302

Romania 0.838 0.413 16 2.030

Argentina 1.252 0.624 17 2.006

Algeria 0.831 0.479 18 1.734

France 1.599 1.050 19 1.523

Japan 3.028 2.261 20 1.339

Mexico 1.533 1.616 21 0.949


26/292


Table-12: Top 25 countries for each type of foss il fuel consumption arranged according to their averagedevelopment index 1980-2003

Country

Average

Develop.index '75-'03

Coal

consumerRank

Oil

consumerRank

Gas

consumerRank Country

Average

Develop.index '75-'03

Coal

consumerRank

Oil

consumerRank

Gas

consumerRank

Canada 0.913 10 4 3 Ukraine 0.767 15 8

United States 0.912 7 3 3 Mexico 0.764 17 21

Netherlands 0.908 6 2 Venezuela 0.751 10

Japan 0.907 20 9 20 Kazakhstan 0.745 6

Australia 0.905 1 7 11 Brazil 0.724 20

Belgium 0.901 5 Malaysia 0.719 12France 0.900 24 13 19 Saudi Arabia 0.703 2 5

Germany 0.898 9 11 14 Thailand 0.698 22 19

UnitedKingdom 0.893 21 15 9 South Africa 0.695 4

Italy 0.888 14 13 Uzbekistan 0.687 7

Spain 0.885 17 12 Turkey 0.663 19 21

Greece 0.872 2 Iran 0.650 16 15

Czech

Republic 0.858 3 China 0.624 18 24 25

Poland 0.831 5 Algeria 0.619 18

Argentina 0.822 17 Indonesia 0.607 25 23 23

Korea, South 0.812 16 8 Egypt 0.553 22

Singapore 0.810 1 India 0.509 23 25 24

United ArabEmirates 0.794 1 Pakistan 0.442 22

Russia 0.794 12 18 4 Korea, North 14


27/292


There are about 11 countries whose average (1980-2005) coal consumption shareratio ( coal consumption as % of worlds total/ population as % of world total) is morethan 2 and out of these 11 countries, 5 countries have development index 0.9 ormore.

Out of the top 25 top countries for highest per capita coal consumption, there are 23countries which have development index of 0.9 (minimum) or have large coal reserve.

Out of 209 countries, 67 countries per capita oil consumption is more than twice theworld average per capita oil consumption.

Out of the top 50 countries for per capita oil consumption, 21 countries are havingdevelopment index of 0.9 or more.

There are about 15 countries whose average (1980-2005) oil consumption share ratio

( oil consumption as % of worlds total/ population as % of world total) is more than 2and out of these 15 countries, 13 countries have development index 0.9 or more.

Out of the top 25 top countries for highest per capita oil consumption, there are 23countries which have development index of 0.9 (minimum) or appears in the top oil/gas producer list of the world.

Out of 209 countries, about 52 countries per capita N Gas consumption is more thanthe world average per capita N Gas consumption. 38 countries per capita oil

consumption was more than twice the world average per capita N Gas consumptionduring period 1993-2005.

Out of the top 50 countries for per capita N Gas consumption, 18 countries are havingdevelopment index of 0.9 or more

There are about 17 countries whose average (1980-2005) oil consumption share ratio( oil consumption as % of worlds total/ population as % of world total) is more than 2and out of these 17 countries, 7 countries have development index 0.9 or more.

Out of the top 25 top countries for highest per capita gas consumption, there are 21


28/292


Any regulation imposed, on the development process of developing, underdevelopedand/ or poor countries to limit their per capita energy consumption/ subsequent CO2emission below todays world average per capita values, in the process of worldwideCO2reduction project implementation will not be considered as transparent processby all the project stakeholders and hence its success can not be ensured..

Under equilibrium situation when all countries of the world has achieved developmentindex of 0.9 or more, total per capita energy consumption is expected to be more orless same for all regions/ countries.

Transparent policy required indicating the past energy use history with consequentCO2emission already done by the countries and transparent policy to share

responsibility to achieve desired target level of CO2with timetable for various regions,countries keeping their respective development process in view.

In past, wealth has created more pollution. Todays rich & developed regions haveproduced more CO2emission compared to other regions, rich & developed countrieswithin same region have produced more CO2emission compared to the othercountries of the same region. Rich & developed people within same country haveproduced more CO2emission by consuming more energy compared to the otherpeople of the same country.

Imposing additional tax on energy consumption may not be a feasible option sincerich will continue with more & more energy consumption while poor will be subjectedto higher day-to-day expenses making them vulnerable to undesirable activities/association. Hence individual countries should formulate their own per capita energyconsumption levels & cost to achieve the agreed target of worldwide CO2emissionreduction project.

Todays developed countries were not developed 20/30 years back. They developed


29/292


Sectoral energy consumpt ion patterns:-CO2emission is unwanted by-product of various processes required to fulfil basic humanneeds. For example, today we cant imagine living without light. Even though majority of

people use electric power for lighting, some regions of some countries in the world may stillbe using candle, etc. for lighting. Both forms of such lighting produce CO2. CO2reductionprogram should not result in non-fulfilment of basic human needs. If it does, then success ofsuch program can be ruled out even before formulation. The CO2reduction program shouldtarget to reduce the existing level without cutting down the basic needs of the people.

Lot of alternative CO2emission reduction level program is being talked about. These

alternatives have different cost impacts and acceptance will depend on the economiccondition of the country. Enforcing costly method on poor countries, whose common peoplehave just started energy consumption recently, will be injustice.

However the coverage of the program needs to be defined & established for worldwideacceptance so that target CO2reduction level can be achieved. The CO2reduction programshould target to reduce the total CO2level of the particular country to a worldwide mutuallyagreed level. The imposition of various CO2reduction program across various industries of

that country to achieve the mutually agreed to total CO2reduction level for the countryshould be left to that particular country.

Fossil energy consumption is mainly accounted for the following board categories ofsectors:-

Electricity Sector


30/292


Net Electric Power:-Today we cant think about a situation without electricity. Our every day life is fully dependenton electricity. Without electricity life will be miserable. Electricity is the most popular type of

energy consumed by all people of all countries. Electricity is used for house appliances,lighting, etc. Electricity is used for area, street, city, etc. lighting without which, world will beuninhabitable under present days terrorism, separatism, criminal activities, etc. Our pastrecords demonstrate the impact of No Electricity over large area for considerable time andundoubtedly those are not healthy one. As per recorded data, crime rates increases inalmost each & every area whenever it undergoes unscheduled total blackout for a prolongedperiods.

In number of countries electricity is used for public/ mass transportation i.e. trains- forpassengers a well as goods, trams, electric trolley bus, etc. Electricity is used inmanufacturing process like, steel, aluminium, cement, paper, etc. Some of these are forinternal consumption of the countries own people and some are for export to other countries.Electricity is used for lighting super-markets, service sector, BPOs, etc.

Electricity is one of the basic necessities of todays modern life. We cant live without

electricity. Electricity production accounts for about 32% of total global fossil energyconsumption and is responsible for about 41% of global CO2emission. However theconsumption of electricity is related to countries development. In fact per capita electricityconsumption is used as a parameter for evaluating the countrys development index.Fig- 8 indicates the net region wise yearly electricity consumption during period 1980-2005.

Fig - 8 : Total Net Electric ity (Billion kWh ) c onsum ption Vs Year

6,000.00

North America Central & South America Europe Eurasia Middle East Africa Asia & Oceania


31/292


It is evident from fig-9 that the net electricity consumption varied drastically between regions.Some regions with less population share (% of world population) consumed much higher netelectricity (as % of world total).

Table-13: Top 25 countries for Net Electricity consumption (1980-2005)

Net Elec.Consump. as

PopulationAs % of

Ratio- % NetElec./ % world

Net ElectricitySharing

Fig -9 : World's share of Net Electr icity Regionw ise (1980- 2005)

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

Region's Net Electric ity consum ption during 1980-2005

'%ofW

orld'sNetElectricit

North America Central & South America Europe Eurasia Middle East Africa Asia & Oceania

North America: -31.88% of world total electricity consumption with 6.91 % of world population

South & Central America-4.47% of world total electricity consumption with 6.84 % world populationEurope-23.68 % of world total electricity consumption with 10.25 % world population

Eurasia-10.97% of world total electricity consumption with 5.20 % world population

Middle East-2.41 % of world total electricity consumption with 2.59 % world population

Africa-2.74% of world total electricity consumption with 12.15 % world population

Asia & Oceania-23.87% of world total electricity consumption with 56.06 % world population


32/292


Table- 13 indicates the list of top 25 countries having highest net electricity consumptionexpressed as % of worlds total & their respective population expressed as % world total.It is evident that USA consumes on average about 27.3 % of worlds total net electricity whileits population is 4.258 % of world average population during period 1980-2005.

The ratio of Average Net electricity consumption expressed as % of world total net electricityconsumption/ average population expressed as % of world total population indicatesWorlds Net Electric ity Sharing Index. Table -13 indicates the Net electricity sharingindex. for the top 25 countries having largest share of worlds net electricity consumption.

The top five countries having highest Net Electricity Sharing Index are - Norway, Canada,Sweden, United States, and Australia. All these countries are considered as developed

countries with development index of 0.9 or more in the year 2003. These countriesdevelopment process started early and they reached developed status early. Theunderdeveloped/ poor countries should not be penalized for starting their developed processlate on CO2emission account.

Net electricity is composed of various types of electricity e.g. thermal, hydro, nuclear,renewable. CO2emission from the various type of electricity generation is different withthermal contributing to the maximum extent. Hence it is important to study the consumption

of various type of electricity across the world.

Thermal Electricity:-Fig- 10 indicates the net region wise yearly electricity consumption during period 1980-2005.

Fig-10 : Total thermal electricity (BillionkWh ) consumption Vs Year

4,000.0

North America Central & South America Europe Eurasia M iddle East Africa Asia & Oceania


33/292


It is evident from fig-11 that the thermal electricity consumption of regions varied widelyduring 1980-2005. Some regions with less population share (% of world population)consumed much higher thermal electricity (as % of world total).

Table-14: Top 25 countries for thermal Electric ity consumption (1980-2005)

Thermal ElecConsump.As

PopulationAs % of

Ratio- % thermalElec/ % world

ThermalElectricity

Fig - 11 : World share of Thermal Electricity (1980-2005)

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

Region's Thermal Electricity consumption during 1980-2005

'%ofWorld'stotalthermalelectricity


North America: -31.43% of world thermal electricity consumption with 6.91 % of world populationSouth & Central America-1.35% of world thermal electricity consumption with 6.84 % world population

Europe-21.88 % of world thermal electricity consumption with 10.25 % world populationEurasia-11.68% of world thermal electricity consumption with 5.20 % world populationMiddle East-3.67 % of world thermal electricity consumption with 2.59 % world population

Africa-3.41% of world thermal electricity consumption with 12.15 % world population

Asia & Oceania-26.59% of world thermal electricity consumption with 56.06 % world population


34/292


Table- 14 indicates the list of top 25 countries having highest thermal electricity consumptionexpressed as % of worlds total & their respective population expressed as % world total.It is evident that USA consumes on average about 30.959 % of worlds total thermalelectricity while its population is 4.258 % of world average population during period 1980-

2005.The ratio of Average thermal electricity consumption expressed as % of world total thermalelectricity consumption/ average population expressed as % of world total populationindicates Worlds Thermal Electricity Sharing Index. Table -14 indicates the thermalelectricity sharing index. for the top 25 countries having largest share of worlds thermalelectricity consumption.

The top five countries having highest Thermal Electricity Sharing Index are:-United States,Australia, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, and Germany. Out of these 5 countries, 4 are mostdeveloped countries of todays world and their development process started long back. Intheir way of development, they have installed large thermal power plants to meet theirinternal electricity demand. Also the other country is the worlds largest producer of oil/natural gas. They have used / are using their internal energy resources for electricitygeneration in their development process. Hence other countries should also be allowed touse their internal resources in their development process, as they develop in future.

Hydro Electrici ty:-

Fig- 12 indicates the net region wise yearly electricity consumption during period 1980-2005.

Fig - 12 : Total Hydro Electricity (Billions kWh) consump tion Vs year

800.00

North America Central & South America Europe Eurasia M iddle East A frica A sia & Oceania


35/292


Fig-13 indicates the average hydro electricity consumption as % of world total of various regionsalong during 1980-2005 along with their % share of population.

Table-15: Top 25 countries for hydro Electricit y consumption (1980-2005)

Hydro Elec PopulationRatio- %Hydro Elec/ Hydro

Fig - 13 : World's share of hydro electric ity region wise (1980-2005)

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

Region's Hydro Electricit y Consumption durin g b1980-2005'%ofworld'shydroelectricity

consumption(BillionskWh)

North A merica Central & South America Europe Eurasia M iddle East Africa Asia & Oceania

North America: -27.48% of world hydro electricity consumption with 6.91 % of world populationSouth & Central America-17.94 % of world hydro electricity consumption with 6.84 % world population

Europe-22.49 % of world hydro electricity consumption with 10.25 % world population

Eurasia-9.68 % of world hydro electricity consumption with 5.20 % world population

Middle East-0.5 % of world hydro electricity consumption with 2.59 % world population

Africa-2.7% of world hydro electricity consumption with 12.15 % world population

Asia & Oceania-19.21 % of world hydro electricity consumption with 56.06 % world population


36/292


Table- 15 indicates the list of top 25 countries having highest thermal electricity consumptionexpressed as % of worlds total & their respective population expressed as % world total.The ratio of Average hydro electricity consumption expressed as % of world total hydro

electricity consumption/ average population expressed as % of world total populationindicates Worlds Hydro Electricity Sharing Index. Table -15 indicates the hydroelectricity sharing index. for the top 25 countries having largest share of worlds hydroelectricity consumption.It is evident from table -14, that Canada consumes highest Hydro electricity of about 15.008% of worlds total hydro electricity with a population of 0.47 % of world average populationduring period 1980-2005 whiles its Hydro Electricity Sharing index is 2. The top five countries

having highest Net Electricity Sharing Index are Norway, Canada, Sweden, Paraguay,and New Zealand.

Out of the above five countries four are worlds leading developed countries having hugehydro potential. All these countries started their development with coal based power plantsand as they developed they concentrated more & more on environmental friendly hydropower. Initial investment for Hydro power much higher and their gestation period is alsolonger compared to coal based conventional power plants. Hence underdeveloped / poor

countries having huge hydro potential are not able to utilize their hydro potential to themaximum extent because of the economic condition. However these underdeveloped / poorcountries moves forward along their development path, it is expected that at some stagethey will invest more & more to utilize hydro potential. To ensure success of Worldwide CO2emission reduction project:, it will be advisable not to force any precondition for hydropotential use for these countries. This should be left to the individual countries until theyreach some development stage and we should trust them.


37/292


Fig-15 indicates the average nuclear electricity consumption as % of world total of variousregions along during 1980-2005 along with their % share of population.

Table-16: Top 25 countries for Nuclear Electr ici ty consumption (1980-2005)

Fig -15 : Region 's Nuclesr Electricity % share of World

consumption

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

Region's Nuclear Electricity Consumption during 1980-2005'%

ofwo

rld'stotalnuclearelectricity

consumption

North America Central & South America Europe Eurasia M iddle East Afr

North America: -33.77 % of world nuclear electricity consumption with 6.91 % of world population

South & Central America-0.5 % of world nuclear electricity consumption with 6.84 % world populationEurope-38.93 % of world nuclear electricity consumption with 10.25 % world populationEurasia-9.35 % of world nuclear electricity consumption with 5.20 % world population

Middle East-0 % of world nuclear electricity consumption with 2.59 % world populationAfrica-0.46 % of world nuclear electricity consumption with 12.15 % world population

Asia & Oceania-16.89 % of world nuclear electricity consumption with 56.06 % world population


38/292


Table- 16 indicates the list of top 25 countries having highest nuclear electricity consumptionexpressed as % of worlds total & their respective population expressed as % world total.The ratio of Average nuclear electricity consumption expressed as % of world total nuclear

electricity consumption/ average population expressed as % of world total populationindicates Worlds Nuclear Electricity Sharing Index. Table -16 indicates the nuclearelectricity sharing index. for the top 25 countries having largest share of worlds nuclearelectricity consumption. It is evident from table -16, that USA consumes highest nuclearelectricity of about 33.833 % of worlds total nuclear electricity with a population of 4.258 %of world average population during period 1980-2005 whiles its Nuclear Electricity Sharingindex is 7.

Table-16 indicates the top ten nuclear electricity user countries as Sweden, France, Finland,Belgium, Switzerland, Canada, United States, Lithuania, Germany, and Japan. Out of these10 countries 9 countries had development index of 0.9 or more by the year 2003. This ismainly due to the fact that R&D works, for nuclear technology development & use of thesame for public interest, is expensive and only the developed countries could effort to dothat. Also after technology development, the use was limited only to some specific countries.Improper use of nuclear power plants can lead to large scale misuse.

Nuclear power plants are generally considered to be the cheapest option for powerproduction considering the cost. It also reduces the large CO2emission except the CO2emission during its construction process. However Nuclear power plants require large initialinvestment & longer gestation period. Also like any other plants, nuclear power plant has alife after which it needs to be decommissioned. Decommissioning of nuclear power plants isvery expensive. It requires heavy security particularly in todays world of terrorism. Godknows what would have happened if the 9/11 attack was on some nuclear power plants.Considering all these aspect, nuclear power plants are not really best option for developing\


39/292


Fig-17 indicates the average renewable electricity consumption as % of world total of various regionsalong during 1980-2005 along with their % share of population.

Table- 17 indicates the list of top 25 countries having highest renewable electricityconsumption expressed as % of worlds total & their respective population expressed as %world total.

Table-17: Top 25 countr ies for Renewable Electr icit y consumpt ion (1980-2005)

RenewableElec Consump.

PopulationAs % of

Ratio- % renewableElec/ % world

RenewableElectricity

Fig - 17 : Region's % share of World's Renewable Electricity

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

Region's Renewabl e Electricity consumption during 1980-2005

'%ofWorld'sRenewab

leElectricityConsumption


North America: -42.05 % of world renewable electricity consumption with 6.91 % of world population

South & Central America-7.86 % of world renewabler electricity consumption with 6.84 % world population

Europe-29.69 % of world renewable electricity consumption with 10.25 % world population

Eurasia-0.71 % of world renewable electricity consumption with 5.20 % world population

Middle East-0 % of world renewable electricity consumption with 2.59 % world population

Africa-0.39 % of world renewable electricity consumption with 12.15 % world population

Asia & Oceania-19.30 % of world renewable electricity consumption with 56.06 % world population


40/292


It is evident from Fig-16 that focuses on renewable energy started from 1988. North Americaregions dominated the renewable electricity sector till 2003. From 2003, Europe region isleading the renewable electricity sector. Asia & Oceania region is also focusing more &

more on renewable electricity. Renewable electricity generation growth of Middle East &Eurasia regions is negligible.The ratio of Average renewable electricity consumption expressed as % of world totalrenewable electricity consumption/ average population expressed as % of world totalpopulation indicates Worlds Renewable Electricity Sharing Index. Table -17 indicatesthe renewable electricity sharing index. for the top 25 countries having largest share ofworlds renewable electricity consumption.

Per Table -17, the top 10 countries in the renewable energy sector are Finland, NewZealand, Denmark, Sweden, United States, Austria, Canada, Netherlands, Germany,Switzerland. All these countries had development index of 0.9 or more by the year 2003.However these countries development process started way back in 1970 and they startedexploring the renewable electricity filed around 1990. Before 1990 worlds renewableelectricity share was really insignificant.

This is true. Because renewable electricity cost is much higher compared to the thermalelectricity generation and the utility company will pass on this cost to the consumer i.e.common people of the country. We cant expect common people of underdeveloped / poorcountries to bear the burden of renewable electricity generation when they are fighting fortwo meals per day. It is not that they dont understand the need for renewable electricity butbecause they can afford the cost of the same. Once they reach the level / status ofdeveloped countries people, they will be glad to enforce the same. Till then it would beimproper to force them to pay more.


41/292


Table-18: Consol idated list of countries of Table 13 to 17.

Country

NetElectricity

SharingIndex

ThermalElectricity

SharingIndex

HydroElectricity

SharingIndex

NuclearElectricity

SharingIndex

Renewable

Electricity SharingIndex

United States 4 1 12 7 5

Australia 5 2 21

Netherlands 10 3 8

Saudi Arabia 14 4

Germany 8 5 22 9 9

United Kingdom 12 6 16 17

Japan 7 7 18 10 11South Africa 16 8 22

Taiwan 11 9 12

Russia 13 10 13 20 23

Kazakhstan 11

Italy 15 12 17 14

Poland 21 13

Uzbekistan 19 14 21

Ukraine 18 15 19 18Spain 17 16 16 17 13

Korea, South 20 17 15

Romania 18

Canada 2 19 2 6 7

Iran 20

Mexico 23 21 21 18

Thailand 22


42/292


Table-19 : Top 50 countries with per capita electricity consumpt ion & % distribut ion( Countr ies having Average population more than 5,000,000 during 1980-2005)

Country

Net per

capita Elec.consumption(kWh/

person/year)

Net Thermal

elec. As %of Net Percapita

consumption

Net Hydro

elec. As %of Net Percapita

consumption

Net Nuclear

elec. As % ofNet Per capitaconsumption

Net

Renewableelec. As % ofNet Percapita

consumption

Norway 22887.24 100.00 0.00 0.26Iceland 19081.62 96.39 0.00 10.87Canada 15291.01 11.36 71.48 16.04 1.12Sweden 14347.23 53.18 48.30 2.33

Finland 12272.37 42.35 20.70 30.09 6.85Luxembourg 12038.26 97.08 1.84 0.00 1.08United States 11326.82 69.00 9.73 19.35 1.92United Arab Emirates 11076.57 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Qatar 10367.20 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Kuwait 10130.21 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Virgin Islands, U.S. 8256.69 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Bahrain 7506.10 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00New Zealand 6992.33 14.48 76.51 0.00 9.21

Australia 6856.07 88.99 10.36 0.00 0.65Switzerland 6797.49 71.84 45.42 1.88Belgium 6384.85 40.41 0.51 57.70 1.38Japan 6200.39 60.14 10.72 27.24 1.90Germany 6199.89 66.34 3.84 27.38 2.43France 6042.91 3.41 18.55 86.54 0.81Austria 5871.89 23.57 73.33 0.00 3.10Denmark 5562.32 90.50 0.10 0.00 9.41Singapore 5362.60 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00


43/292


From table-18 & 19 followings are evident;-

Out of these top 50 countries, 43 countries have development index 0.9 or more and/or are major producer of fossil energy i.e. coal, oil, gas.

Out of these 50 countries, only 13 countries per capita thermal electricity consumptionis less than world average per capita thermal electricity consumption.

Out of these 50 countries, only 11 countries per capita hydro electricity consumptionis more than world average per capita hydro electricity consumption.

Out of these 50 countries, only 16 countries per capita nuclear electricity consumptionis more than world average per capita nuclear electricity consumption and 11 out ofthese 16 countries had development index of 0.9 or more by year 2003.

Out of these 50 countries, only 13 countries per capita renewable electricityconsumption is more than world average per capita renewable electricity consumptionand all these countries had the development index of 0.9 or more by the year 2003.

From the above analysis followings are evident:-

World population increased by about 47% in the period 1980-2005 while the Netelectricity consumption increased by 114% % during the same period.

World population is expected to grow to 9.2 billion by 2050 from 6.5 billion in 2005.This is about 40 % increase. With such increase of population, electricity consumptionwill also increase not in the same proportion but at much higher rate since countriesdevelopment status will move northward.

During period 1980-2005, world average distribution of various types of electricity i.e.,thermal electricity, hydro electricity, nuclear electricity & renewable electricityconsumption are 60.51%, 20.69%, 17.37%, 1.43%.


44/292


Out of 209 countries, about 52 countries, average per capita hydro electricityconsumption (during 1980-2005) was above the worlds average per capita hydroelectricity consumption and number of countries having per capita hydro electricity

consumption more than twice, thrice & four times of the world average are 30, 17 and14 respectively.

12 countries, out of 28 countries having development index of 0.9 or more, appears inthe list of the top 25 countries for per capita hydro electricity consumption,

None of the top 18 countries having highest Thermal Electricity Sharing Index appearin the list of top 10 countries for Hydro Electricity Sharing Index.

Only a small portion of worldwide hydro potential is converted in actual electricity

generation. Lot of underdeveloped\ poor countries having hydro electricity potential dont have the

resource to tap this and convert into effective electricity generation. Developed\developing countries should come forward to help these countries in developing hydroelectric power plants. As a part of the CO2emission reduction implementation project,transparent agreement can be made instead of trying to leverage maximum profit outof such project from these undeveloped\ poor countries by developed countries.

Out of 209 countries, only 47 countries have any significant nuclear electricitygeneration program and about 23 countries, average per capita nuclear electricityconsumption (during 1980-2005) was above the worlds average per capita nuclearelectricity consumption. Number of countries having per capita nuclear electricityconsumption more than twice, thrice & four times of the world average are 21, 19 and12 respectively.

12 countries, out of 28 countries having development index of 0.9 or more appears inthe list of the top 25 countries for per capita nuclear electricity consumption.


45/292


Table -20 : Estimation of per capita CO2emission from Thermal Electricity by 2050Item description Value Unit

Present world average per capita CO2 emission (1980-2005) 3.981 T/person/Year

Present day's average (1980-2005) Electricity accounts for 41% ofCO2 emission

1.632 T/person/Year

Thermal Electricity contributes about 95% of CO2 emission fromelectricity source.

1.551 T/person/Year

World average per capita thermal electricity consumption 1186.823 kWh/person/year

Average per capita thermal electricity consumption by Developedcountries

4502.746 kWh/person/year

If all countries reaches developed status, their average per capita

thermal electricity consumption is expected to be same as that oftoday's developed countries.

Expected per capita CO2 emission from thermal electricityconsumption by 2050 when all countries reaches developed status

5.883 T/person/Year

Considering our earlier assumption highlighted above,

Present average (1980-2005) per capita CO2 emission by countrieswith Di 0.9 or more

15.2 T/person/Year

Present day's average (1980-2005) Electricity accounts for 41% ofCO2 emission 6.232 T/person/Year

Thermal Electricity contributes about 95% of CO2 emission fromelectricity source.

5.920 T/person/Year

Expected per capita CO2 emission from thermal electricityconsumption by 2050 when all countries reaches developed status

5.920 T/person/Year

Table-20 indicates that considering the assumed contribution of thermal electricity towards


46/292


policy to share responsibility to achieve desired level with time table for variousregions, countries keeping their respective development process in view.

In past developed/ developing countries has created more pollution by their electricity

consumption. Developed regions/ countries have produced more CO2emissioncompared to other regions, rich & developed countries within same region haveproduced more CO2emission by their electricity consumption compared to the othercountries of the same region. Rich & developed people within same country haveproduced more CO2emission by excessive electricity consumption compared to theother people of the same country.

For worldwide acceptance, any limitation on electricity consumption/ electricity

generation process to reduce CO2emission should ensure fulfilment of basicelectricity requirements of general people of all countries at minimum possibleaffordable rates.

Majority of worlds Nuclear energy consumption is controlled by mainly developedcountries. Nuclear fuel & technology is mainly controlled by developed countries.Even though electricity produced by nuclear energy is labelled as minimum cost, itsinstallation by countries outside approved group requires international approval.

However Nuclear power generation cost doesnt take into account the probable cost

of nuclear power plant decommissioning after its specified plant life is over & vigoroussecurity cost & cost of period inspection/ plant health checks which are quite high.Also with the present days terrorism, the cost of additional security.

Nuclear power plants suffer from highest consequential environmental impact of anypossible terror attack/ sabotage.

Nuclear power plants should be avoided in the terror prone countries where peopleare vulnerable for falling in trap of terrorism because of their poverty level.


47/292


Manufacturing Sector:-

Manufacturing is another essential part of life. Our history indicates that the fundamental

issue after food are cloths & shelter on which we concentrated at the beginning. These aretill primary concern of today. The primitive stage shelter was cave, etc. Now we are usingsophisticated housing requiring steel, Aluminium, Cement, brick, Wooden panels, etc. All ofthese require manufacturing process. In addition with development of science, we have got& getting accustomed with more & more scientific gadgets & appliances without which wecan imagine living today. The extent of gadgets & appliances used by various sector ofpeople of various countries varies depending on the development status of the country.

We need paper for day to day use. Even though it is said that soft world (i.e. withcomputerisation) leads to paper less offices but actually use of paper has increased becausethe increased & easy availability of copying facilities. Every one copies the required portionof documents, letter etc. immediately when required instead of referring to the original book/document and through away those xeroxed copies. It really appears that easy availability ofcopying facilities has really increased the paper consumption even with the advancement ofcomputer facilities. Advancement & availability of computers has actually reduced the hand

writing rather than paper work.

With population increase we need more & more food. Hence we need fertilizer to increasefood production. Fertilizer industries are now basic requirement. Todays manufacturingsector covers the manufacture of finished goods and products, mining of various rawmaterials & processing them. Construction of various plants e.g. refineries, paper plants,chemical industries, fertilizer industries, cement industries, steel industries, etc. All theseindustries require energy consumption either in the form of electricity or direct use of primary


48/292


Chemicals and Petrochemicals Industries

The Chemical & Petrochemical industry consumes about 30 % of energy used by industrial

sector per year and is the largest industrial consumer of energy. Chemical industry normallycovers all the production facilities to produce specific compounds from chemical reactions ofinorganic and/ or organic materials. The petrochemical industry covers the productionfacilities that produce synthetic organic products from oil and natural gas feedstock.The chemical and petrochemical industry covers a wide range of products e.g. plastics,solvent, urea, methanol, etc. It is extremely difficult to capture the world wide energyconsumption data for various processes and their associated CO2emission. Hence theanalysis is done based on total energy used including & excluding electricity. CO

2emission

related to electricity use is addressed under electricity and hence not duplicated here again.Based on available data, Energy including electricity used in global chemical &petrochemical production in 2005 is indicated in table-21.

Table 21 :Global Chemical and Petrochemical Industry, 2005 (Including Electric ity)

Country Reported Production Ave (1980-2005) Prod share /

Energy(1)

Share world population Population share

Use (1012

MJ ) % share (%) (per capita prod)Saudi Arabia 1.2 3.59 0.29 12.19

Netherlands 0.7 2.10 0.25 8.41

Taiwan 0.9 2.69 0.34 7.99

Canada 0.9 2.69 0.47 5.73

Republic of Korea 1.5 4.49 0.81 5.57

United States 7.8 23.35 4.26 5.48

Japan 2.2 6.59 2.08 3.16


49/292


Energy excluding electricity used in global chemical & petrochemical production in 2005 isindicated in table-22.

Table 22 :Global Chemical and Petrochemical Indust ry, 2005 (Excluding Electric ity)Country Reported Production Ave (1980-2005) Prod share /

Energy(1)

Share world population Population share

Use (1012

MJ ) % share (%) (per capita prod)

Saudi Arabia 1.2 4.00 0.29 13.57

Netherlands 0.6 2.00 0.25 8.02

Taiwan 0.7 2.33 0.34 6.91

Republic of Korea 1.4 4.67 0.81 5.79

Canada 0.8 2.67 0.47 5.67

United States 6.9 23.00 4.26 5.40

Japan 2.1 7.00 2.08 3.36

Germany 1.1 3.67 1.32 2.79

France 0.6 2.00 0.94 2.13

United Kingdom 0.5 1.67 0.95 1.75

Italy 0.4 1.33 0.94 1.43

Brazil 0.6 2.00 2.56 0.78

China 3.6 12.00 22.07 0.54

India 1.1 3.67 18.92 0.19

Others 8.4 28.00 43.81 0.64

Total 30 100.00 100 1.00

(1) : Sources: IEA, 2007c; IEA, 2007d; SRI consulting; Ministry of Energy, Trade and IndustryJapan; IEA analysis.


50/292


At the same time CO2emission reduction is a must. Hence we need development / energyefficiency improvement process for chemical & petrochemical industries to reduce energyconsumption leading to reduced CO2emission. We also need transparent policy for sharing

the CO2emission from chemical & petrochemical production process between all theconsumers irrespective of the countries barrier sharing the CO2burden of particular paperproducing country. One way would be imposing CO2tax on per ton of paper productexported.Iron and Steel Industries

The iron and steel industries is the second largest industrial user of energy, consumingabout 20% of total industrial sector energy consumption in 2005. It is also the largestindustrial source of CO2emissions.Based on available data, the global steel production in 2006 is indicated in table-23.From table-23 it is evident that the top five steel producer countries are China, Japan, UnitedStates, Russia and republic of Korea. These countries accounts for about 60% of total worldsteel production. Out of this top five, three countries have the development Index of 0.9 orabove.

Table 23 : Global Steel Production, 2006

CountryProduction(1)

MillionTons/yr

Production(1)

Share%

Ave (1980-2005)world

populationshare (%)

Prod share /Population

share(per capita

prod)Republic ofKorea 48.5 3.9 0.81 4.84


51/292


We need transparent policy so that all consumers regardless of their respective countriesbarrier can share the burden of CO2emission issue.Depending on final product requirement, available raw materials, energy supply and capital

investment, steel is produced through various processing steps e.g. blast furnace / basicoxygen furnace , scrap/electric arc furnace (EAF) method, direct reduced iron (DRI)/EAFmethod,

Steel production through blast furnace / basic oxygen furnace requires ore preparation, cokemaking & iron making process and hence this process require large amount of energy perton of steel production. However the scrap/ EAF process doesnt require these steps andrequires less energy i.e. about 30-45% per ton of steel. However the scrap availabilitydepends on amount of steel reaching the end of their useful life and on the effectiveness inrecovering the scrape. The author has experience of discovering buried steel drum/components while the underground package contract of projects were under actualexecution.

Average per capita steel consumption of the world will increase with population increase andas more & more countries develop and reaches developed country status. The basic need of

human development should not be hampered. At the same time CO2emission reduction is amust. Hence we need development / energy efficiency improvement process for steelproduction to reduce CO2emission, we also need transparent way of sharing the CO2emission from steel production process between all the people irrespective of the countriesbarrier sharing the steel produced by the particular countries. One way would be imposingCO2tax on per ton of steel exported.

Cement Industries


52/292


Based on available data, the global cement production in 2006 is indicated in table-24.

Table 24 : Global Cement Production, 2006

Production ProductionAve (1980-

2005) Prod share /

Country MillionShare (%)

(1)world

populationPopulation

share

ton/yr (1) share (%)(per capita

prod)

Spain 54 2.1 0.64 3.27

Republic ofKorea 55 2.2 0.81 2.73

China 1200 47.1 22.07 2.13

Turkey 48 1.9 0.95 2.00

Italy 43 1.7 0.94 1.82

Japan 70 2.7 2.08 1.30

Mexico 41 1.6 1.44 1.11

United States 100 3.9 4.26 0.92

Russia 55 2.1 2.38 0.88India 155 6.1 18.92 0.32

Other 730 28.6 45.51 0.63

World Total 2550 100 100 1.00

(1) : Sources: United States Geological Survey, 2008a; Batelle, 2002; PCA,2005; Price, 2006; JCA, 2006; CEMBUREAU, 2006; Siam Cement IndustryCompany Ltd, 2005.


53/292


The total cement produced by the particular country may or may not be consumed entirelyby the countries internal population. Some parts may be exported to meet the demand ofother countries consumption. For export, the producing country should not be penalized

since it is helping other countries development process.

We also need transparent policy for sharing the CO2emission from cement productionprocess between all the consumers irrespective of the countries barrier sharing the CO2emission burden of the particular cement country.

One way would be imposing CO2tax on per ton of cement exported.

Paper and pulp Industries

The paper & pulp industry consumes about 5.5 % of energy used by industrial sector peryear and is the fourth largest industrial consumer of energy. In paper & pulp approximately67% of energy consumption is in the form of fuel that is used to produce heat and 330% ofenergy consumption is in the form of electricity. However paper & pulp industries alsoproduces energy as a by-product by using its biomass residue and generates about 50% of

its own energy needs. This by product power generation process makes the paper & pulpindustries less CO2emission intensive sector compared to other energy intensive industries.

Based on available data, the global Paper & pulp production in 2006 is indicated in table-25.

Table 25 : Global Paper and Pulp Production, 2006

Production ProductionAve (1980-

2005) Prod share /


54/292


From table-25 it is evident that United States alone contributes for about 23 % of the worldstotal Paper & pulp production. The top five paper producer countries are United States,China, Japan, Germany and Canada. These countries accounts for about 60% of total world

cement production. Cement is also exported by number of countries to other countries. Outof this top five, four countries have the development Index of 0.9 or above.

A significant portion of global fibre supply for paper production is from recycled paper. Out ofthe total paper production 50% is used by packaging industries (board, wrapping &packaging), 30% is used for printing & writing, balance is used in newsprint, household andsanitary paper. Household use of paper products are more developed & developingcountries.

However if we consider the per capita paper & pulp production ratio i.e. Paper &

Download - Worldwide CO2 Emission Reduction Project

Top Related