global food security: new trends and emerging agenda
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European Commission, Brussels, May 4, 2010TRANSCRIPT
Global Food Security: New Trends and Emerging Agenda
Shenggen FanDirector General
International Food Policy Research Institute
European Commission, Brussels, May 4, 2010
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, May 2010
Key messages
• Achieving the MDG1 goal of cutting hunger is not on track
• Emerging trends present further challenges for the future
• MDG1 is still achievable and there have been successes
• But a new agenda must be adopted
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, May 2010
The number of hungry needs to fall by 73 mil. per year to meet MDG1
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, May 2010
29 countries have “alarming“/“extremely alarming” levels of hunger (2009 GHI)
GHI components:• Proportion of undernourished• Prevalence of underweight in children• Under-five mortality rate
Source: von Grebmer et al. 2009.
Domestic prices remain high in some countries
Rice prices, $US/ton
Source: FAO 2010.
Jan-06
Apr-06Ju
l-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07Ju
l-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08Ju
l-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09Ju
l-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400 DRC, KisanganiBurundi, Bu-jumburaRwanda, KigaliGlobal
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, May 2010
Non-food factors continue to influence food prices
Energy: Oil prices have reached a 19-month high; Biofuel production is still growing, even though at a slower pace
Trade: Some export restrictions have been extended to 2010
Finance: Credit availability not yet restored to its pre-crisis level
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, May 2010
Emerging trends
Population growth and demographic changes
Land and water constraints
Climate change
Rapidly growing population and demographic change
World population reaches 9 billion by 2050
All growth to come from urban areas
Most growth to come from developing countries
Source: FAO 2009.
Larger and more urban population will demand more and better food
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, May 2010
Natural resource constraints are high
Source: IWMI 2000.
Projected water scarcity in 2025
Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.
NCAR A2a
Climate change pressure on food production systems
Climate change impact on production: Rainfed maize, 2050
Global production = -16%
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, May 2010
Climate change impact: Child malnutrition
South Asia
East Asia and Pacific
Europe and Central Asia
Latin America and Caribbean
Middle East and North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
2050 NCAR No CF2050 No climate change2000
Million children under 5 years of age
Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009..
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, May 2010
Successes show that rapid food secuirty improvement is possible
Asia: Green Revolution (1965-85)
China: land reform (1978-84); higher rice yields (1977-now)
India: seed marketing (mid-1960s-now), dairy sector development (1970-96)
Kenya: unlocking fertilizer and maize markets (1990-2007)
Nigeria, Ghana, and Uganda: pest- and disease-resistant cassava (1971-89)
Vietnam: Exiting from collective agriculture (1988-93)Source: Spielman and Pandya-Lorch 2009.
New agenda for food security needed
1. Invest in agriculture and improve smallholder productivity
2. Keep trade open
3. Promote productive social protection
4. Invest in climate change adaptation and mitigation
5. Improve institutions and capacities
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, May 2010
1. Invest in agriculture and improve smallholder productivity
Increase agric. spending, improve access to inputs and services, secure land rights, invest in rural infrastructure
Source: Fan and Johnson (2009).
0.51.0
1.52.02.5
3.03.5
4.0Actual ag spending in 2004, billion USD
Annual ag spending required, billion USD (2008-15)
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, May 2010
Ag + non-ag growth = highest poverty reduction
Source: Diao et al. 2008.
Poverty simulations, Rwanda
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, May 2010
2. Keep trade open
Eliminate harmful trade restrictions and refrain from imposing new ones• to increase efficiency• to stabilize prices
Complete the Doha Round • if tariffs increase to their current WTO limits (bound
level): 11.5% loss of developing country exports US$353 billion loss in world welfare
Potential costs of failed Doha Round could be highSource: Bouet and Laborde 2009.
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, May 2010
3. Promote productive social protectionScale up safety nets to: Secure and smooth food consumption Enable saving and investment Build and diversify assets
Types of interventions e.g.: Conditional cash/food transfers Maternal and child health/nutrition programs Public works Insurance for the poor
Source: Adato and Hoddinott 2008.
Programs depend on needs, capacities, and resources
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, May 2010
Innovative insurance for poor farmers and consumers
Agriculture: index-based weather insurance for crops and livestock
Health: community-based health insurance
Effective delivery channels• Agricultural cooperatives to deliver weather
insurance products• Microfinance institutions to provide
microinsuranceSource: Vargas Hill and Torero 2009.
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, May 2010
4. Invest in climate change adaptation and mitigation
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
Developing countries
Agric. research 314 172 1,316
Irrigation expansion 537 344 907
Irrigation efficiency 187 999 2,158
Rural roads 2,015 17 2,737
Total 3,053 1,531 7,118
Annual expenditure to counteract climate change effects on child nutrition by 2050 (million 2000 US$)
Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009.
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, May 2010
5. Improve institutions and capacities Build up existing institutions and improve evidence-
based policy making
• Increase gradual implementation after careful experimentation as in Asian reform process (esp. China)
• Increase investment in information gathering, monitoring, and evaluation
Strengthen human and administrative capacities through increased investment in education and training
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, May 2010
Building capacity for policy analysis Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support
System (ReSAKSS)• Africa-wide network • Supports implementation of CAADP and other
regional initiatives
Country SAKSS• Provides technical support for CAADP roundtable
process• Monitor and evaluate performance of agricultural
sector against CAADP goals
Rapid hunger reduction is achievable with effective
country-led and country-owned actions