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Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

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Page 1: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Group audited financial results: 2006

Presentation to investors, analysts and media

20 and 21 February 2007

Page 2: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Summary

• Satisfactory performance. HEPS +33%, excluding non-recurring boost of 210 cents per share from agreement with AECI Pension fund

• Revenue and profit from operations at record levels, exceeding R10b and R1b respectively

• Outstanding performance from Chemserve, Dulux and Heartland. AEL steady despite intense competition and SANS disappointed, a consequence of several adverse factors

• Meaningful progress with R1b investment programme in production facilities at Chemserve and AEL

Page 3: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Business environment

• South African economy grew by almost 5%

• Consumer-driven demand remained strong in spite of interest rate hikes

• Local manufacturing benefits from consumer demand and weaker currency

• Mining healthy, aided by commodity prices

• Rand volatile (R6/$ - R7.75/$)

• Infrastructure under pressure, but large spend announced and started

• Oil off mid-year peak

• Shortage of specialised skills

Page 4: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Impact on AECI

• Healthy demand for products, services and land

• Volatile and rising rand input costs

• Margin pressures

• Production disruptions (SANS)

• Growth and investment opportunities

Page 5: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Results for 2006

• HEPS +33%, excluding once-off PRMA effect

• Revenue-weighted volumes +8%

• TP margin 10.8% (10.1%)

• TP +24%

• Foreign sales +27% in rand

Headline earnings per share (cents)

300

400

500

600

700

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06

7

8

9

10

11

'01 '03 '05

Trading margin (%)

Page 6: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Financial

• Chemserve, Dulux acquisitions R175m

• Capex R416m, R193m higher than depreciation charge; AEL and CSL expansions

• WC 17.1% at year-end, comparedto 15.7% in 2005; strong second half

• Borrowings up by R142m to R940m = gearing ratio of 25% (27% at Dec ’05)

• Cash interest cover up to 13x

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

'02 '03 '04 '05 '060

10

20

30

40

50

Borr Gearing

Page 7: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Financial

• PRMA transaction

• AECI Pension Fund Trustees resolved to establish

Employer Surplus Account of R750m

• Will be used primarily to fund an allowance to pensioners over 65 equivalent to portion of medical aid contributions paid by Company

Page 8: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Financial cont.

• Company undertakes at least to maintain for 10 years the present rate of contribution to the Pension Fund iro employee members

• Agreement released R131m from PRMA provision and recognised R196m balance in Employer Surplus Account as an asset

Page 9: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Share price

AECI share pricerelative to JSE Ind index

0

100

200

300

400

500

'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06

Relative rating to industrials (at year-end) marginally down on previous two years; below 02/03 peak

Graph adjusted for R6 special dividend (Nov ’99)

Page 10: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Segmental trading profit (Rm)

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

Min sol Sp chem Sp fibres D coat Prop Corp

2005 2006

Page 11: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Group EVA® (Rm)

-300-250-200-150-100

-500

50100150200250

'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06

Calculated at WACC of 15% for ’99 to ’03 14% for ’04 13% for ’05 and ‘06

Calculated at WACC of 15% for ’99 to ’03 14% for ’04 13% for ’05 and ‘06

Page 12: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

EVA® by business (Rm)

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Min sol Sp chem Sp fibres D coat Other

2005 2006

Includes goodwill at cost

Includes goodwill at cost

Page 13: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Mining solutions• Revenue R2 492m (+8%); TP R261m (+2%)

• Margin 10.6% (11.1%)

• Stronger second half in 2006 compared to 2005

• Ammonia prices volatile and continuing to trend upwards

• Excluding ammonium nitrates exports, explosives volumes grew while initiating systems declined somewhat

• Volumes in the rest of Africa grew strongly in the second half

• Fixed costs well controlled, somewhat offsetting decline in margins

• R21m less profit from reduced export of ammonium nitrate in 2006, compared to opportunistic export in 2005

Page 14: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Mining solutions cont.

• Factory modernisation and automation programme progressing well

• Market is converting from capped fuse to shocktube, and automation strategy designed for this

• First phase, project Bernice, (cost = R75m) commissioned in Q4 ’06, and ramp-up will take place in Q1 ’07

• Project Bernice is an automated detonator manufacturing plant designed to produce 40 million detonators

• The next automation phase, project Charlize, (cost = R100m) is designed to double Bernice’s detonator capacity, manufacture shocktube, and install automated assembly

Page 15: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Mining solutions cont.

• Project Charlize scheduled for commissioning in Q4 ’07

• Expenditure on the final phase, project Denise, (cost = R250m) has been brought forward

• As a result of project Bernice and Charlize, AEL is planning to introduce 30 million more shock tube units into the market in ’07

• AEL is continuing its anti-dumping initiative and has approached the High Court to review ITAC’s decision to revoke its investigation into AEL’s petition. A date for the court hearing is awaited

Page 16: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Mining solutions cont.

DetNet• International sales disappointingly slow due to teething problems

with product and competition in distribution channels

• Digidet, the hybrid shocktube/electronic detonator previously developed by Dyno Nobel, discontinued and production in US closed in Q4 ’06

• The business model for DetNet has been modified with the channel partners taking more responsibility for sales and market conversion

• Looking to break even this year

Page 17: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Specialty chemicals

• Revenue R4 729m (+24%); TP R501m (+22%)

– margin 10.6% (10.8%)

– about 50% of improvement from organic growth

• High and volatile oil prices and raw material shortages, together with a weaker rand, reversed deflationary pricing of ’05

• Strong demand from revitalised manufacturing, consumer-driven and mining sectors

Page 18: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

SALES BY INDUSTRY 2006

Mining, 16.5%

Agriculture, 10.3%

Paper and Packaging, 9.1%

Chemical Industry, 8.5%

Coatings Ink & Adhesives, 8.1%

Automotive, 6.9%

Toiletries, Cosmetics and Pharmaceuticals, 6.2%

Plastics & Rubber, 5.7%

Detergents, 4.3%

Food & Beverage, 4.2%

Appliances and Furniture, 3.5%

Oil and Refining, 2.7%Engineering and Foundry, 2.2%

Steel & Metals, 1.9%

Explosives, 1.9%

Construction, 1.3%

Textiles and Leather, 1.2%

Other, 5.5%

Other, 14.1%

Page 19: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Specialty chemicals cont.

• Growth strategies

• Acquisitions: R155m spent including

– Leochem (petroleum jelly merged with Akulu)

– Noble Industries (granular enhancement products merged with Lake)

– 60% shareholding in Resitec, Brazilian supplier to rubber industry

– Cape Town Chemicals (solvent distributor) acquired by Crest

– Tradezone merged with Industrial Urethanes

• All performing to expectation

Page 20: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Specialty chemicals cont.

• Growth strategies

• Brazilian country strategy

– Resitec delivered pleasing performance notwithstanding a strong currency

– expansions underway to increase capacity

– actively seeking further acquisitions in Brazil

• Other; with resource-based economy and value added opportunities

Page 21: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Specialty chemicals cont.

• Mining chemical thrust

• Successful commissioning of depressant plant at Senmin

• Vendor management programme and expansion of African footprint gained momentum

• Two major capital projects

– carbon disulphide capacity at Senmin to be expanded and pelletised xanthate facilities installed for R230m

– deal under discussion with global technology partner to construct world-scale plant costing R380m for specialty mining chemical

Page 22: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Specialty chemicals cont.

• Other

• Decided to exit overtraded Masterbatch operation; sold business subject to competition Commission approval

• Presentation on 10 May

Page 23: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Specialty fibres

• Revenue R1 780m (+10%); TP R-6m (+R32m in ’05)

• Recovery programme set back severely in Q1 by power outages which impacted operations for weeks

• Insurance claim covered only part of the cost

• Output of polyester polymer and PET restricted following scheduled maintenance shutdown and expansion project in March

• This and initial quality problems led to concerns among some customers, resulting in reduced market share. However, local volumes regained progressively

Page 24: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Specialty fibres cont.

• In second half, two incidents of force majeure by the major supplier of nylon polymer restricted output and a carbon dioxide shortage reduced local peak season PET demand

• Early in ’07, Unifi Inc, partner in US-based joint venture advised its intention to exercise put option against SANS; provided for in initial joint venture agreement

• Unifi will exit in Q1 ’08, for value still to be determined

• Opportunity will be taken to seek a strategic alliance with a new partner which could add value to SANS’s business as a whole

Page 25: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Specialty fibres

Profit and exchange rate

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

02H1 02H2 03H1 03H2 04H1 04H2 05H1 05H2 06H1 06H2

Rm

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

R/$

PBIT R/$

Page 26: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Decorative coatings

• Revenue R774m (+19%); TP R70m (+19%)

– margin 9.0% (9.1%)

– maintained higher margin trend with focus on branded sector

• Volume increased by 10% supported by strong housing sales

• Acquired Sent Packing, for niche applications in specialised protective coatings

• Launched new colour system (sourced from ICI)

Page 27: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Property

• Revenue R644m (+6%); TP R314m (+70%)

• Includes R66m for environmental remediation

• Net cash flow of R296m, after expenditure of R134m on remediation

• Healthy demand continued in all areas for commercial, residential and retail sectors

• 1 460ha of the original 4 300ha excess land available has been sold (160ha in ’06)

Page 28: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Property cont.

• In December, agreement regarding Gautrain concluded with the Province of Gauteng

• Agreement addresses the concerns regarding connectivity between various parts of Modderfontein

• Province agreed that seven additional road bridges will be constructed

• Agreement recognises the desirability of a station at Modderfontein when justified in terms of passenger volumes and economic considerations

Page 29: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Outlook

• Favourable international environment and firm commodity prices should support local mining and manufacturing sectors

• Group to benefit from major investment programmes and property development activities, but mainly in ’08 and ’09

• Expect consumer demand to moderate but remain healthy

• Operating businesses well positioned to post aggregate gains, provided rand exchange rate does not strengthen materially

• Limited land ready for release and sale, and profit from property likely to be substantially below 2006

Page 30: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007

Calendar

• 10 May: Chemserve presentation, Johannesburg

• 21 May: AGM

• 24 July: Half-year results released

• 24 July: Presentation, Johannesburg

• 25 July: Presentation, Cape Town

Page 31: Group audited financial results: 2006 Presentation to investors, analysts and media 20 and 21 February 2007