growth with uncertaintyfi… · colorado change in population. 0. 20,000. 40,000. 60,000. 80,000....
TRANSCRIPT
Growth with Uncertainty
University of Colorado Board of Regents
Richard WobbekindSenior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government RelationsLeeds School of BusinessUniversity of Colorado Boulder
#COBizOutlook
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Consensus Forecasts.
Real GDP GrowthQuarterly Real GDP
Average 1990-1999 Average 2010-2019Average 2000-2009
1.6
Perc
ent C
hang
e, S
AA
R
2.0
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Government Spending
0
1
2
3
4
5
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Quarterly SAAR
Year-over-Year
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
Q22018
Q32018
Q42018
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Q42019
Q12020
Q22020
Q32020
Q42020
Q12021
Fixed Business Investment
Quarterly SAAR
Year-over-Year
Economic Growth
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, the National Bureau of Economic Research, Moody’s Analytics, and Consensus Forecasts
-3-2-101234567
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
Q22018
Q32018
Q42018
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Q42019
Q12020
Q22020
Q32020
Q42020
Q12021
Net Exports
Exports YoY
Imports YoY
Quarterly SAARYear-over-Year
National EmploymentMonth-over-Month Change, 12-Month Average
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Thou
sand
s
Rec
essi
on 1
8 M
onth
s
Rec
essi
on 8
Mon
ths
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), Moody’s Analytics, and the National Bureau of Economic Research.
176
60
State Employment GrowthYear-over-Year December 2019
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
Colorado Employment Growth
Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and the Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
40.1
Jobs
Add
ed, T
hous
ands
53.6
Colorado 2020 Employment Change
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Jobs Added
-1 0 1 2 3
Percent Change
Professional and Business Services
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Education and Health Services
Government
Leisure and Hospitality
Construction
Financial Activities
Other Services
Manufacturing
Natural Resources and Mining
Information
Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
Employment In Current DecadePercent Change from January 2010
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
National
ColoradoColorado Springs
Greeley
Ft. Collins
PuebloGrand Junction
BoulderDenver
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
0 1 2 3 4
Pueblo
Grand Junction
Fort Collins-Loveland
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood
Boulder
Colorado Springs
Greeley
Percentage
Unemployment RateDecember 2019
Colorado 2.5% Seasonally Adjusted, 2.4% Unadjusted
0 1 2 3 4
Pueblo
Grand Junction
Fort Collins-Loveland
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood
Boulder
Colorado Springs
Greeley
Percentage
Employment Growth Rate, December 2019 YoY
Colorado 2.1%
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics CES (Seasonally Adjusted) and LAUS (Not Seasonally Adjusted).
Regional Growth and Unemployment
Colorado Labor Force
• LFPR on the rise:
• 66.7% December 2015• 69.1% December 2019
• 5th-highest nationally
• Colorado peak = 74.5% (1998)
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1977 1984 1991 1998 2005 2012 2019
Labo
r Fo
rce
(Tho
usan
ds)
LFPR (Percent)
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.
Labor Force and Unemployment RateNational by Educational Attainment, Population 25 and Over, Q4 2019
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS), Not Seasonally Adjusted.
46.5
58.162.2
69.373.5 74.8
5.3 3.6 2.9 2.4 1.9 1.70
15
30
45
60
75
Less than a highschool diploma
High schoolgraduates
Some college, nodegree
Associate degree Bachelor's degree Advanced degree
Perc
enta
ge
LFPR
Unemployment Rate
Labor Force Participation RatesNational by Age Cohort, Q4 2019
0102030405060708090
100
20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 +
Perc
enta
ge
Peak2019
1989 2000 1999
2019
Current2019
2019
Age Group
1997
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS), Not Seasonally Adjusted.
Colorado Change in Population
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Thou
sand
s
Net
Migration
Natu
ral In
crease
Colorado’s population changes• 76,349 in 2019• 72,620 in 2020
8th-fastest in total state growth
7th for percentage growth
Continued net in-migration• California• Texas• Florida• Illinois• New York
Sources: Colorado Demography Office, U.S. Census Bureau, and the Business Research Division.
Colorado Wages 2019 Q2 (4Q Rolling Average)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
Sector Total Employment (Thousands)
Year-over-YearEmployment Growth
Average Wages
Year-over-YearWage Growth
Above Average Total 1,106 3.0% $86,709 3.7%Management of companies and enterprises 42 4.3% $140,400 -1.6%Utilities 8 0.7% $108,005 6.0%Information 76 3.0% $107,040 5.7%Professional and technical services 230 4.4% $99,634 4.2%Finance and insurance 113 0.7% $98,137 3.3%Natural Resources and Mining 48 4.8% $89,789 3.7%Wholesale trade 109 1.5% $87,930 4.3%Federal Government 53 -0.3% $84,627 4.8%Manufacturing 149 2.2% $72,647 3.7%State Government 105 3.2% $66,121 2.8%Construction 176 4.2% $63,295 4.2%All Industries 2,704 2.3% $60,341 4.3%Real estate and rental and leasing 53 3.2% $60,267 3.5%Transportation and warehousing 80 7.1% $58,125 3.5%Health care and social assistance 301 1.5% $52,001 3.1%Local Government 265 1.9% $49,223 3.5%Administrative and waste services 160 0.8% $45,413 8.2%Educational services 37 3.0% $42,019 2.7%Other services, except public administration 83 2.6% $41,804 4.1%Arts, entertainment, and recreation 58 2.4% $38,887 4.3%Retail trade 273 0.3% $33,088 3.8%Accommodation and food services 284 1.1% $24,125 6.2%Below Average Total 1,594 1.7% $42,021 4.5%Sources: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee and Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Mining and Logging
Other Services
Information
Manufacturing
Leisure and Hospitality
Financial Activity
Construction
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Government
Education and Health Services
Professional and Business Services
Thousands of Jobs
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Colorado Jobs Added by Industry – December 2019 YoY
-50 50 150 250 350 450 550 650
Natural Resources and Mining
Information
Other Services
Trade; Transportation; and Utilities
Government
Manufacturing
Financial Activities
Construction
Leisure and Hospitality
Professional and Business Services
Education and Health Services
Thousands of Jobs
Source: Moody’s Analytics.
National Jobs Added by Industry – 2019
-150 -50 50 150 250 350 450 550
Manufacturing
Natural Resources and Mining
Information
Other Services
Financial Activities
Construction
Trade; Transportation; and Utilities
Government
Professional and Business Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Education and Health Services
Thousands of Jobs
National Jobs Added by Industry – 2020
Source: Moody’s Analytics.
-1,200 -700 -200 300 800 1,300 1,800
Manufacturing
Information
Natural Resources and Mining
Other Services
Trade; Transportation; and Utilities
Financial Activities
Construction
Government
Leisure and Hospitality
Education and Health Services
Professional and Business Services
Thousands of Jobs
National Jobs Added by Industry – Total 2020 through 2025
Source: Moody’s Analytics.
Industry Location QuotientsColorado compared to the U.S., 2018 Annual
Min
ing
Info
rmat
ion
Pro
fess
ion
al
Art
s an
d E
nt.
Con
stru
ctio
n
Rea
l Est
ate
Acc
omm
. an
d F
ood
Gov
ern
men
t
Fin
ance
Wh
oles
ale
Oth
er
Man
agem
ent
of
Com
pan
ies
Ret
ail
Ad
min
an
d W
aste
Hea
lth
care
Tra
nsp
orta
tion
an
d
War
ehou
se
Uti
liti
es
Agr
icu
ltu
re
Ed
uca
tion
Man
ufa
ctu
rin
g
0
1
2
3
Loca
tion
Quo
tien
t
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Potential HeadwindsInternational/National• Global growth
• Value of the dollar
• Trade/tariffs
• Election year
State and Local• Talent shortage
• Housing affordability
• Commodity prices/cycle
• Drought and weather
• Real wage increases