HFIPOcean Model Impact Tiger Team (OMITT)

Kim et al. 1

Wednesday March 4, 2015

The 69th Interdepartmental Hurricane ConferenceMarch 2-5, 2015Jacksonville, FL

Chair and co-chair:H.-S. Kim, G. Halliwell

Team:L. Bernardet, P. Black, N. Bond, S. Chen, J. Cion, M. Cronin, J. Dong, I. Ginis, B. Jaimes,

B. Liu, E. Sanabia, N. Shay, V. Tallapragada, B. Thomas, E. Uhlhorn, and L. Zhu

Institutions:EMC, DTC, HRD/AOML, PhoD/AOML, PMEL, USNA, Navy, URI, UMiami, and

UWashington

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Overview

1. Objectives

2. Approaches

3. Groups and Primary Tasks

4. Progress

5. Near Future Plans

6. Related Presentations at IHC

1. Objectives

Determine the benefit of coupling ocean models of various complexity to the hurricane atmospheric model, by assessing the impacts of theocean components on the HWRF forecasts and the sensitivity of theseimpacts on air-sea interface, surface flux, and atmospheric parameters. Background:Several studies have demonstrated already in the past, e.g. Lee and Chen (2014), Yablansky and Ginis (2014), and Wada and Usui (2007 and 2010).

Q1: What would this effort be different from the past research/effort? Q2: Observation limits the effort. What are options?Q3: What do we expect at the end of one year? …Year-End Goal:Submit Recommended strategies to improve ocean model performance in TC forecasts, prepare a report and present results in 2015 HFIP annual meeting.Kim et al. 3

2. Approaches

Models:

1. 3D Ocean couple

POM (w/ HWRF), HYCOM (w/ HWRF), and NCOM (w/ COAMPS-TC) Performed in 3 basins – NAtl, EPac, and WNP.

2. 1D Ocean couple – Mixing physics

M-Y and KPP w/ momentum balance in a column No simulations done, but can be conducted on demand.

Reserve this for Ideal Runs.

3. Specified SST – a) Persistent SST from GFS/GDAS (RTG), NCODA and RTOFS

nowcasts - objective: what is the impact of mesoscale variability of SST. (Preliminary Results in slides 11-12)b) Updated SST (from global RTOFS products)

Can be performed in all 3 basins.

–Approach– build Metrics and Diagnostic Tools for effective and consistent analysisKim et al. 4

5Kim et al. 5

3. Groups and Primary Tasks

modeling

run evaluation

datawarehouse

Data & tools – collect, archive at

DTC, and distribute

Bernardet; Black; Cion; Halt; Kim; Sanabia; Shay;

Uhlhorn

Real cases – evaluate and compare with obs. Black, Chen, Cion, Halliwell, Jaimes, Kim, Liu, Sanabia, Shay, Uhlhorn, Zhu

Design simulations – e.g., run real cases on

demand or sensitivity study

Chen, Dong, Halliwell; Ginis; Thomas; Zhu

Communicate at biweekly telecons with goals of:1. Build synergy bwn modelers and field scientists,2. Exchange diagnostic tools and make them available,3. Update progress, and 4. Assist publications.

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4. ProgressDefined (as of February 2015)

a) Models, Groups, Regular telecon times, Definitions – done

b) Storms, Metrics, Data & tools Repository – almost complete

Primary Storms of InterestCases selected from the 2014 operational, and upgraded T&E runs, based on a) the strength of ocean influence, andb) the availability of ocean and atmosphere observations Runs by non-coupled, and coupled but with different ocean models as operational or experimental exercise in 3 basins – N. Atlantic (NAtl), E. Pacific (EPac), and W. N. Pacific (WNP).

NAtl Edouard (2014), Isaac (2012), and Gonzalo (2014) EPac Julio (2014) and Iselle (2014) WNP Fengshen (2014), Pabuk (2013), Kammuri (2014) and Soulik (2013)

4-1

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4. Progress

DataDTC’s Mesoscale Model Evaluation Testbed (MMET) repository

of simulations and observations.

Observations

The SS funded ocean obs. - leverage Target obs. – air-borne, unman vehicle, ? Mooring obs. – KEO, TAO, NDBC, ? Lagrangian obs. – gliders, drifts, floats, ? Remote sensing obs. – MW, IR, Wind, ?

Simulations Operational HWRF (HWRF-POM), Experimental HWRF (HWRF-HYCOM) and COAMPS-TC, and Ideal cases – non-coupled, 1D and 3D ocean coupled.

4-2

Mesoscale Model Evaluation Testbed (how it can help HFIP OMITT)

– What: Mechanism to assist research community with initial stage of diagnostics and testing, with the goal of leading to model improvements

– Can provide:• Observational datasets• Forecasts and verification from

selected model configurations• Code for conducting model runs

• Where: Hosted by the DTC; served through Repository for Archiving, Managing and

Accessing Diverse DAta (RAMADDA) http://www.dtcenter.org/eval/meso_mod/mmet

Model and observation data sharing by L. Bernardet, 13th February 20154. Progress 4-3

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4. ProgressMetrics

Use consistent definitions Oceanic Mixed Layer depth (MLD) storm footprint surface layer

Diagnostic depths

Diagnostic Tools

DTC’s “hwrf-contrib” SVN repository for diagnostic tools.

http://www.dtcenter.org/HurrWRF/developers/contrib/overview.php

4-4DTC’s hwrf-contrib for tools Repository by C. Halt Feb. 13, 2015

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4. Progress

Sensitivity to SST (J. Dong and H-S Kim)

Experiment design:

Non-coupled HWRF

SST: Constant SST (25, 27 and 28oC) GFS/GDAS (RTG) – available daily NCODA – available daily and/or 6 hourly global RTOFS – available hourly

ApproachHurricane Edouard (2014) atmospheric conditions but using persistent SST.

4-5

Experiment 1 (next 2 slides)Spatially uniform vs. varying SST, but persistent (Non-Coupled HWRF)

a)constant SST – 27 and 28oCb)spatial varying SST – 00Z SST from GFS, NCODA and RTOFS

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4. Progress

Preliminary Results for Experiment 1 Non-coupled HWRF using persistent SST (spatially uniform vs. varying)

4-6

Track – a similar bias pattern: northward for 0-30 hrs, southwestward for 36-66 hrs, and eastward for 72-120 hrs.

Except 28oC SST’s track is excellent for 36-60 hrs.

Intensity – two groups: •Large difference between constant SSTs.•Less differences among spatially varying SST.Constant SST results in under-prediction for 27oC and over-prediction for 28oC.All GFS, NCODA and RTOFS SST show a similar forecasts.

Sensitivity to SST (J. Dong and H-S Kim)

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4. Progress

Preliminary Results Best w/ RTOFS SST Worse w/ constant SST

4-6E

rro

rB

ias

1. Constant SST – large error at later lead times; and the same for bias to negative in Pmin for 28oC and positive for 27oC, and opposite for Vmax.

2. RTOFS (pink) – less spin-up/down; overall small error and bias at later lead times, cf others.

3. NCODA (yellow) – relatively large bias and errors, starting from 24-hr and persistent.

4. GFS (green) – comparatively better performed than NCODA, except abnormal peak in bias around 24 hr.Note: different color codes from the previous slide.

Sensitivity to SST (J. Dong and H-S Kim)

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1. Complete a write-up of the OMITT Work Plan

2. Build tools to extract and estimate a minimum set of TC

parameters – reduction of the simulation outputs for a easy

reference to the OMI investigation

3. Build a database for storms of interest

4. Complete building of 3D HYCOM coupling Ideal case

5. Transition Tools to Operation

6. Assist Field Observation

7. Reinforce collaborations – e.g., invite atmospheric scientists

to the telecon

5. Near Future Plans

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6. Related Presentations at IHC

P01: Upper Ocean Observations in Hurricane Edouard Uhlhorn et al.

P04: Support for Users and Developers of the Hurricane WRF Model Bernardet et al.

P11: Kuroshio Extension Observatory (KEO) Measurements of the Upper-Ocean Response to Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Bond et al.

S1-05: 2014 AXBT Demonstration Project: Operations Summary and Research Update

Sanabia and Black

S3b-02: Improving the Ocean Component of the Operational HWRF and GFDN/GFDN Hurricane Models Ginis et al.

S5a-01: Advanced Operational Global Tropical Cyclones Forecasts from NOAA’s High-Resolution HWRF Modeling System Tallapragada

S5a-06: Proposed 2015 NCEP HWRF Hurricane Forecasting Model Trahan et al.

S5b-03: Sensitivity of Ocean Sampling for Coupled COAMPS-TC Prediction Chen et al.

S5b-05: NOAA’s Use of the Coyote UAS in Hurricane Edouard to Enhance Basic Understanding and Improve Model Physics Cion et al.

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