preliminary idea evaluation

assignment 4blue sky ideation

02468

10

Outline/Timeline Check 1 point if completed on timeIndividual Idea Generation 3 = Craft a How Might We Statement based on your top problem/opportunity. You will use this statement throughout this

assignment. Write that statement at the top of this section. Before conducting any group brainstorming session, you should individually spend several hours (not at one time) thinking of ideas for your problem/opportunity and sketching them. All ideas here should be visual with titles. These ideas can be rough doodles and there can be many on a page. You should fill several pages with these ideas. There should be at least 30 different ideas here. This may be the most important part of all assignments in this class. Include scans of all the pages from your notebook. 0 = No Documentation

New Warm-Up Game 1 = Description with photo/image of your new type of warm-up activity. “New” meaning you developed the activity and not simply tried something new. In addition to the activity you develop, you are encouraged to also use warm-up games you learned in class. 0 = No Documentation

Session Organization 1 = Photo documentation that you organized a group of at least 4 people with relatively different backgrounds (not including yourself, not including people from this class) supplemented with a short description of the participants, the setting, the warm-up games used, the length of time of dedicated idea generation (20-40 min), the total number of ideas generated and the IPM for the session. You should follow the process we taught in class. You should tell all participants the prompt a day in advance and ask them to come in to the session with ideas. During this session, you should introduce your own ideas from beforehand and add them to the pool of ideas using whatever medium (e.g. post it notes) the group is using so they can be voted on with the new ideas 0 = No Documentation

Sorting and Voting 1 = Photo of the ideas sorted into categories showing the results of a multi-voting processes. A textual description that includes the category names and the process you used in the multi-voting. 0 = No Documentation

Top Ideas 2 = Re-sketch and scan the 10 best ideas from this session so all ideas are legible and in the same handwriting. You should determine the “best” ideas based on the client’s needs/interest and whatever criteria you deem important. You are welcome to take into account the results of the multi-voting when selecting ideas. Each idea should be a separate image with a title and credit to the person who came up with the idea. These top 10 can come from your individual ideation session or the group session. You will bring these 10 physical pages into team discussion. 0 = No Ideas

Peer Evaluated Ideas Scaled out of 1 (in class)

fourth assignmentindividual idea generation

fourth assignmentdesign a warm up game

fourth assignmentarrange a brainstorming

0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.4

2.7

3

ideas per minute per person

fourth assignmentsort, categorize, vote

fourth assignmenttop 10 idea drawings

how should we evaluate ideas?

innovation pyramid

to make into a product practical applications

innovation pyramidinnovation pyramidInnovation is the embodiment, combination or synthesis of knowledge in original, relevant, valued new products, processes or services.' Luecke and Katz

NVF TestInnovation is the embodiment, combination or synthesis of knowledge in original, relevant, valued new products, processes or services.' Luecke and Katz

valuable

appeal, do people want it,

innovative!

valuablefeasible

novel

how to test your ideadoes it exist already and can you protect it?

do people want it and for how much?can you make it and for the right cost?

patent search

proof of concept / estimation

costing pricing

benchmarking

market research

novel/market potentialstep one.benchmarking

novel/market potentialstep one.benchmarking

don’t panic: there is always an opportunity to make it better & this shows there is a market

novel/market potentialstep one.benchmarking

only one on amazon

and there are things people don’t like about it!

novel/market potentialstate of the art(includes benchmarking and also patent searching) someone looking for this

may buy this instead

2x2s

cartoony realism

low end

high end

market potential?

novel/market potential

2x2s

light heavy

complicated refill

simple refill

marketpotential?

novel/market potential

2x2snovel/market potential

2x2s novel/market potential

2x2s novel/market potential

2x2s novel/market potential

xkcd

market potentialsurveys

market potentialsurveys

do you like my idea?

do you like this idea?

what do you think of this idea?

could you see yourself owning this?

how much would you pay for this?

would you use this?

do you know someone who would?

could you see yourself buying this?

in person is best

market potentialsurveys and pricing

“Be a user of your own product. Make it better based on your own desires. But don’t trick yourself into thinking you are your user.”  —Evan Williams, founder Blogger & Twitter

If you haven’t gotten ten people to at least say they’ll buy, where do you get your hubris to proclaim that thousands actually will buy? - jason cohen

The only thing that matters is that people are willing to give you money! Business “experts” can argue all day long that it makes no sense to buy shoes over the Internet, but as long as people give Zappos $1 billion per year, it doesn’t matter what experts say. - jason cohen

“we are likely to get more realistic results in price research if we provide test conditions that are as close as possible to the actual purchase situation.” -2011 February issue of the Journal of Marketing Research (How Should Consumers’ Willingness To Pay Be Measured? An Empirical Comparison of State-of-the-Art Approaches by Miller, Hofstetter, Khromer and Zhang).

market potentialsurveys and pricing - willingness to pay (WTP)

It’s better not to provide a list of possible prices for the respondent to choose from: make it an open-ended question (“How much would you be willing to pay for this?”). A list of prices biases the answers.David Lyon of Aurora Market Modeling

u(w0 − WTP,1) = u(w0,0).

On average, there was no difference in the subjects’ willingness to pay for items between the text and picture conditions, but subjects were willing to pay, on average, 50 percent more for items that were physically present. Importantly, these were real decisions: Subjects purchased those items at the stated price. “Somehow the brain knows it is present, and computes the value of stimuli differently when this is the case.” Antonio Rangel in American Economic Review, Sept.

market potentialsurveys and pricing

how much would you pay for this?

78

10look to similar products

1283 207 18

look to existing products

market potential/feasibilitycosting vs. pricingfixed costs vs. variable costs

get amortized over units made depend on how many units made

75-80% of final product cost can be determined before 5% of the product is completed

market potential/feasibilitycosting vs. pricing

how much would you pay for this? how much with it cost to make?>

bulk material cost = cost of labor~(per unit) (per unit)

very rough estimates for high production manufacturing

retail: $10material cost x 2 = manufacturing cost~manufacturing cost x (2-3) = wholesale price~

(how you make money)

wholesale cost x (2.5-3) = retail price~(how the store makes money)

retail price = 10 x material cost~ bulk ABS plastic ~ $1/lb

>

market potential/feasibilitycosting vs. pricing

how much would you pay for this? how much with it cost to make?>

bulk material cost = cost of labor~(per unit) (per unit)

very rough estimates for high production manufacturing

$78

material cost x 2 = manufacturing cost~manufacturing cost x (2-3) = wholesale price~

(how you make money)

wholesale cost x (2.5-3) = retail price~(how the store makes money)

retail price = 10 x material cost~ if low production numbers

fixed costs are not amortizedlabor costs may be higher

to sell less, have to charge more for profit

>

"The Rule of the Few": Opportunities seem more valuable when they are less available. Hard-to-get things are perceived as better than easy-to-get things.

feasibilityprototyping (before we get to far into production) how does the cost of your prototype relate to the cost of the product?

no relationship

haggman, honda and yang. the influence of timing in exploratory prototyping and other activities in design projects, ASME DTM 2013

feasibilitysketch modeling

Sketching in 3-D

A sketch model explains more than a picture

A quick way to answer key questions and further develop the idea

proof of concept!

feasibilitysketch modeling

feasibilityinexpensive and fast

use what is appropriate!

blue foam

foam core

wood, cardboard

paper GUI

repurposed/scavenged parts

arduino

sketch modeling - materials

Programming cable I/O pins

Reset

Brain Power pins 9V or 12V

battery

feasibilitysketch modeling - feedback

lo fi models can help explain an idea, get feedback from users, and refine a design

feasibilitysketch modeling - axman surplus

feasibilityestimation

2.009 Product Engineering Processes, MIT

back of the envelope

feasibilityestimation

price of bucket?

volume of bucket?

volume of popped corn kernel (packing factor)?

.25 - 1.5 cents per kernel

What is the price per piece of popcorn at the movie theatre?

feasibilityestimation - baselines

from xkcd

half a pound

noveltyintellectual property

copyrightpatent trademark trade secret

utility design plant

“copyright” for ornamental

designno registration

word(s) or symbolto identify the source of goods and services.

original work (art, music, lit, code)

registration not requiredinvention or

process

noveltyintellectual property - copyright

Examples of Copyrightable Intellectual Property:

• Written work• Recorded music or songs• Computer programs• Video footage• Artwork• Java applets• Web pages• Photographs

Examples of Non-Copyrightable Intellectual Property (and why):

• Data collected by government (because that data is owned by the public)

• Ideas (because ideas aren't fixed in a tangible medium)

Copyright for any original work exists once the work is “fixed in tangible form."

©2002 erik heels

UMN IP Website

noveltyintellectual property - patentsA patent is a grant of a property right by the U.S. government to the inventor giving the owner of the patent the right to exclude others from making, using, offering for sale, or selling the invention in the U.S. or importing it to this country. - UMN IP Website

novel, useful, non-obviousstudy prior art for infringement

inventor vs. owner

provisional patent application ($125)patent application (625 + lawyers)

noveltyintellectual property - patent claims

“scamper” around patent

claims

Claim Template:an X comprising of an A, B, and a C, wherein A is comprised of w, z, and v

to infringe on a claim, a device must include each and every element named in the claim

a beverage container holder, comprising a corrugated tubular member comprising cellulosic material and at least a first opening therein for receiving and retaining a beverage container, said corrugated tubular member comprising fluting means for containing insulating air; said fluting adhesively attached to a liner with a recyclable adhesive

generally specific kinda... e.g. tubular member

noveltyintellectual property - patent claims

squeeze and sing

singamajigs

noveltyintellectual property - patent claims

To protect your claim as an inventor, you must keep detailed notes of your work during the project. These notes are necessary because U.S. patent law dictates that the inventor is the person who first conceived of the invention, rather than the person who first filed for the patent. UMN IP Website

noveltyintellectual property - patentsnotebooks

required design notebook:

HOWEVER!March 16, 2013: America Invents Act“First to Invent” switch to “First to File”first to “reduce to practice” is the inventor

noveltyintellectual property - patents

In the U.S., an inventor has a one-year grace period from the date of disclosure of the invention to file a patent, though public disclosure can result in losing the right to file for patent protection in other countries -UMN IP Website

public disclosure

noveltyUS Patent & Trademarks Office:http://www.uspto.gov/patft/index.html

intellectual property - patent search

a great deal of the past two centuries of legal and folk wisdom about innovation has pursued the exact opposite argument, building walls between ideas, keeping them from the kind of random serendipitous connections that exist in dreams and in the organic compounds of life. ironically, those walls have been erected with the explicit aim of encouraging innovation. - Steven Johnson

noveltyintellectual property - patents

Nils Bohlin, 1959, Volvo

valuablefeasible

noveldoes it exist already and can you protect it?

do people want it and for how much?can you make it and for the right cost?

patent search

proof of concept / estimation

costing pricing

benchmarking

market research

how to test your idea

blog assignment 5Preliminary Idea Evaluation

TAG: evaluation

MARKETABLE:poll at least 15 people that represent your user (online if needed). how many would buy the idea if it were a product? if they would, ask how much they would pay for it.if possible you should also ask the person who had the original needyou can use feedback to evolve these ideas if neededGraphically present your data with text descriptions

we will be doing a more elaborate NVF (novel, valuable, feasible) test to make informed decisions about which to pursue and to further adjust ideas. Start with your top 3 ideas. NOTE: all top ideas should be relevant to the client

FEASIBLE: For the 3 ideas describe your concerns and unknowns

NOVEL: A) benchmark these 3 ideas to existing similar products (state of the art)find the closest products/solutions for each of the 3 ideas and make a visualization of the state of the art including images of the existing items, prices and key featuresthis visualization should be in 2x2 format. For each idea, you should benchmark at least 3 existing products. You can determine your axis labels. You can use your findings to evolve these ideas if neededB) conduct a preliminary patent search on these top 3 ideas. Identify one related patent to each of the 3 ideaseven if your idea is not specifically something that would be patented.

Pugh Chart - Sketch Model - Feedback

blog assignment 5Outline/Timeline Check 1 point if completed on timeMarket Survey 2 = Before starting this assignment, choose the best 3 ideas from your top 10 in assignment 4. These ideas should fit

the client needs/scope/challenge and should pass a first order NVF test. Present these three ideas again here. Perform a survey of at least 15 people that represent the user (this can be online) to determine willingness to buy and how much people would pay for each of the 3 best ideas. You are welcome to ask any other questions that would help refine your design. Graphically and textually present the results of your survey data. 0 = No Documentation

Benchmarking 2x2s and Patent Search

3 = For each of your 3 ideas, benchmark the state of the art with a 2x2 visualization including images of the existing products, prices and key features. Each 2x2 should contain the data from a minimum of 3 existing products. Conduct a preliminary patent search on each of your 3 ideas, describe the most relevant patent and provide a URL link and an image. 0 = No Documentation

Feasibility Concerns 1 = Describe the greatest concerns and/or unknowns about each of your 3 ideas 0 = No Documentation

Pugh Chart 1 = Create a visual Pugh Chart which shows your evaluation criteria, a comparison of your three ideas based on your research above, and the idea which you selected to pursue further. 0 = No Documentation

Sketch Model + Feedback 2 - Present Images of a rough lo-fi sketch model (cardboard, foam core, paper, hacked products) of your selected idea shown in context. Use this sketch model to get feedback from user(s). Document the feedback in text and images. 0 = No Documentation

Assignment Due 11/8 Peer reviews due 11/10

outline/timeline/qualtrics due tomorrow

Thursday - Idea Selection Tuesday - Product Entrepreneur Panel

schedule

Griffin (1993) – The Voice of the CustomerKudrowitz (2012) – Assessing the Quality of Ideas Haggman (2013) – Influence of Timing in Exploratory PrototypingHorn and Salvendy (2006) - Consumer-based assessment of Product CreativityBushong (2010) – Pavlovian Processes in Consumer Choice 

any questions?