is investment - fixed income daily 20.05

As of

Overnight Funding Rate vs Benchmark Bond

-

-

-

-

-Cross Currency Swaps

-

-

-

-

Bills

1 TRB200711T14 0.00 20/7/11 2 m 12 m 0.23 7.35 8.20 7.78 0.17

2 TRB070911T19 0.00 7/9/11 4 m 6 m 97.724 7.79 0.22 7.53 8.25 7.89 0.29

Benchmark - Long Bill Steepness Zero Coupon Bonds

1 TRT030811T14 0.00 3/8/11 2 m 22 m 98.432 7.78 5 0.23 7.39 8.34 7.95 0.20 Currency Levels

2 TRT250412T11 0.00 25/4/12 11 m 21 m 92.563 8.57 -5 0.21 7.99 8.92 8.52 0.80

3 TRT200213T25 0.00 20/2/13 21 m 22 m 86.192 8.79 -3 0.18 8.20 8.86 8.51 1.31

Fixed Coupon Bonds

Sell the benchmark note TRT200213T25 as it reached a

good selling level at current yields

Overbought in the past

few weeks

Volaitilies in

MENA and oil

prices

2

1

Rates and Relative Value of Most Liquid Bonds

Low

(%)

High

(%)

3 mo Range

Buy the 15/01/20 note for the carry, given the better

credit story of Turkey (recommended since 20/10/10)

Political stability,

credible CBRTA credibility loss

PVBP

* 100Coupon Maturity Term Orig. Term

Clean

Price

11:00 - Foreign Tourist Arrivals YoY APR

24/5/11 14:30 - Capacity Utilization MAY

24/5/11

Central Government Debt Stock Apr

Auction: 7-yr (24/01/18) Floating Rate Note (sa) (r-o)

(IYM exp: TL 1bn)

20/5/11 CBRT weekly repo auction redemption TL 2bn

24/5/11 14:30 - Industrial Confidence MAY

25/5/11

20/05/11

Trade Recommendations

PnL

Fixed Income - Local Markets

Trade

20/5/11

AgendaDate

Action

May 18, 2011

Is Investment's View

Supporting

Entry

LevelRisksCurrent Target

14:00 - Benchmark Repo Rate

25/5/11 Settlement: 7-yr (24/01/18) Floating Rate Note (sa) (r-

o)

30/5/11 Financial Stability Report (s/a)

Comp.

Yield

1d Yld

Chg

(bp)

3 mo

Avg (%)

3 mo

Vol

(%)

HOLD8.49% 9.46% 8.25% -97 bp

9.05% 8.87% 8.50% 18 bp SELL

25/5/11

5

6

7

8

9

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

%

Years

18/05/11 17/05/11

2.2

2.4

EUR/TRY USD/TRY Basket

100

200 5s/10s 2s/5s

6

9

12

15

18

07/09 01/10 07/10 01/11

%

Years

Overnight

Ugur N. Kucuk, PhD Ugursel Onder

[email protected], +902123502514 [email protected], +902123502536 1 of 15Recai Gunesdogdu, PhD

[email protected], +902123502310

1 TRT070312T14 16.00 7/3/12 10 m 5 y 105.850 8.48 0 0.29 7.86 9.24 8.49 0.80

2 TRT290114T18 8.00 29/1/14 2.7 y 3 y 97.700 9.27 0 0.14 8.73 9.40 9.17 2.35

3 TRT150120T16 10.50 15/1/20 8.7 y 10 y 107.350 9.46 -14 0.14 9.24 9.84 9.47 6.17

FRNs

1 TRT260613T17 9.56 26/6/13 2.1 y 5 y 103.400 13.66 29 2.65 7.19 14.16 12.19 0.00

2 TRT201113T16 9.32 20/11/13 2.5 y 5 y 104.835 8.82 0.44 8.13 9.56 9.00 0.00

Domestic Debt Stock Shares (%) as of 29/04/11 3 TRT260214T10 9.38 26/2/14 2.8 y 7 y 103.550 9.28 30 0.50 7.47 9.28 8.38 0.00

CPI Linkers

1 TRT140813T19 12.00 14/8/13 2.2 y 5 y 121.517 2.14 4 0.12 1.68 2.15 1.90 0.01

2 TRT210514T12 9.00 21/5/14 3 y 5 y 119.900 2.17 -4 0.12 1.79 2.21 1.93 0.02

3 TRT110215T16 4.50 11/2/15 3.7 y 5 y 107.510 2.40 1 0.11 1.94 2.40 2.12 0.03

4 TRT290415T14 4.00 29/4/15 3.9 y 5 y 106.000 2.41 5 0.10 1.94 2.39 2.14 0.04 Current YTD Chng

5 TRT060121T16 3.00 6/1/21 9.6 y 10 y 101.900 2.79 -6 0.05 2.47 2.86 2.78 Key Rates

1-wk repo 6.25% -75 bp

Compounded 6.45% -80 bpBenchmark Note 8.82% 171 bp

Currency

USD/TRY 1.5749 -1.9%

EUR/TRY 2.2459 -8.2%

Treasury Fiscal Reserves as of 29/04/11

Treasury Debt Service Projections

Yield Curve

5

6

7

8

9

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

%

Years

18/05/11 17/05/11

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10

EUR/TRY USD/TRY Basket

-100

0

100

200

Feb-11

5s/10s 2s/5s

6

9

12

15

18

07/09 01/10 07/10 01/11

%

Years

Overnight

82%83%84%85%86%87%88%89%90%

8%9%10%11%12%13%14%15%16%

Apr-11Feb-11Nov-10

Non-Resident Share

Resident Share

17 bn

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Apr-11Mar-11Jan-11Nov-10Sep-10Jul-10May-10

Bn TRY

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

%

Maturity

18/5/11 17/5/11 11/5/1113.9

5.87.6

14.3

10.6

5.5

13.1

0.8

17.215.3

13.4

17.1

0

5

10

15

20

May Aug Nov Feb

Mil TRYDate

Coupon Principal




40683

As of

Buy the ex 07/11/12 benchmark note as it offers a good entry point at current yields

0

May 18, 2011

Government Domestic Debt Instruments Yield Curve

12-Oct-11

16-Nov-11

25-Jan-12

14-Mar-12

25-Apr-12

8-Aug-12

7-Nov-1220-Feb-13

7-Mar-12

9-Jan-13

10-Apr-1328-Aug-139-Oct-13

29-Jan-14

6-Aug-14

17-Jun-15 27-Jan-16

15-Jan-20

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

Compounded Yield (%)Cheap

- Fixed Coupon 10/04/13 @ 9.14

- Zero Coupon 14/03/12 @ 8.6

- Fixed Coupon 29/01/14 @ 9.27- Zero Coupon 16/11/11 @ 8.23

- Fixed Coupon 17/06/15 @ 9.35




* Rich/Cheap is based on historical yield error versus the fitted curve

7-Sep-11

8-Jun-11

3-Aug-11

12-Oct-11

16-Nov-11

25-Jan-12

14-Mar-12

25-Apr-12

8-Aug-12

7-Nov-1220-Feb-13

7-Mar-12

9-Jan-13

10-Apr-1328-Aug-139-Oct-13

29-Jan-14

6-Aug-14

17-Jun-15 27-Jan-16

15-Jan-20

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Compounded Yield (%)

Maturity

T- Bills Zero Coupon Bonds Fixed Coupon Bonds

Cheap

- Fixed Coupon 10/04/13 @ 9.14

- Zero Coupon 14/03/12 @ 8.6

- Fixed Coupon 29/01/14 @ 9.27- Zero Coupon 16/11/11 @ 8.23

- Fixed Coupon 17/06/15 @ 9.35

Rich

- Zero Coupon 20/02/13 @ 8.79

- T-Bill 07/09/11 @ 7.79

- Zero Coupon 08/08/12 @ 8.65- Fixed Coupon 06/08/14 @ 9.15

- Zero Coupon 12/10/11 @ 7.98




40683

As of

TL DENOMINATED

T- Bills

2 TURKTBO 07/20/11 TRB200711T14 0 20/07/11 28/07/10 2 m 12 m 4,292 0.0 3.5 0 0.23 7.35 8.20 7.78 0.16 0.001 0.17

1 TURKTBO 09/07/11 TRB070911T19 0 07/09/11 09/03/11 4 m 6 m 754 0.1 6.4 97.724 0 7.59 7.79 20 0.22 7.53 8.25 7.89 47 4134 4181 0.29 0.002 0.29

Zero Coupon Bonds

8 TURKGB 0 06/08/11 TRT080611T11 0 08/06/11 14/04/10 1 m 14 m 5,100 8.7 182.8 99.587 0 7.21 7.46 -4 18 29 0.24 7.13 7.94 7.60 0.05 0.000 0.05

2 TURKGB 0 08/03/11 TRT030811T14 0 03/08/11 07/10/09 2 m 22 m 11,175 100.2 617.6 98.432 0 7.55 7.78 5 22 18 0.23 7.39 8.34 7.95 0.20 0.001 0.20

7 TURKGB 0 10/12/11 TRT121011T19 0 12/10/11 29/09/10 5 m 12 m 3,256 8.7 46.4 96.954 0 7.80 7.98 10 21 38 0.22 7.49 8.34 8.04 41 1430 1471 0.38 0.003 0.38

5 TURKGB 0 11/16/11 TRT161111T14 0 16/11/11 20/01/10 6 m 22 m 10,904 38.5 240.7 96.132 0 8.07 8.23 0 23 66 0.23 7.55 8.71 8.16 36 886 922 0.48 0.005 0.46

6 TURKGB 0 01/25/12 TRT250112T14 0 25/01/12 14/04/10 8 m 21 m 11,715 33.4 130.1 94.580 0 8.30 8.41 6 21 72 0.25 7.67 9.01 8.39 28 503 530 0.66 0.008 0.62

10 TURKGB 0 03/14/12 TRT140312T15 0 14/03/12 19/01/11 10 m 14 m 2,374 0.5 #N/A 93.421 0 8.54 8.60 4 25 72 0.22 7.86 8.92 8.51 24 392 416 0.79 0.010 0.72

3 TURKGB 0 04/25/12 TRT250412T11 0 25/04/12 14/07/10 11 m 21 m 14,781 86.8 500.7 92.563 0 8.55 8.57 -5 21 58 0.21 7.99 8.92 8.52 21 325 345 0.90 0.012 0.80

9 TURKGB 0 08/08/12 TRT080812T26 0 08/08/12 27/10/10 15 m 21 m 13,412 8.7 249.6 90.322 0 8.73 8.65 -3 10 51 0.20 8.14 9.05 8.68 15 230 245 1.17 0.019 1.00

4 TURKGB 0 11/07/12 TRT071112T14 0 07/11/12 12/01/11 18 m 22 m 18,298 44.2 340.6 88.211 0 9.05 8.87 -4 14 61 0.20 8.24 9.11 8.72 11 188 199 1.41 0.027 1.15

1 TURKGB 0 02/20/13 TRT200213T25 0 20/02/13 13/04/11 21 m 22 m 5,646 827.7 4,556.9 86.192 0 9.08 8.79 -3 16 0.18 8.20 8.86 8.51 9 150 159 1.69 0.037 1.31

Fixed Coupon Bonds

2 TURKGB 16 03/07/12 TRT070312T14 16.00 07/03/12 14/03/07 10 m 5 y 9,565 164.0 179.4 105.850 3.12 8.31 8.48 0 21 59 0.29 7.86 9.24 8.49 24 438 462 0.74 0.009 0.80

11 TURKGB 14 09/26/12 TRT260912T15 14.00 26/09/12 03/10/07 16 m 5 y 5,646 0.0 0.2 1.92 0.21 8.41 9.45 8.81 1.22 0.021 1.32

10 TURKGB 10 01/09/13 TRT090113T13 10.00 09/01/13 13/01/10 20 m 3 y 14,197 0.1 1.6 102.050 0.99 8.65 8.93 9 8 0.23 8.44 9.31 8.94 10 171 181 1.47 0.030 1.54

4 TURKGB 10 04/10/13 TRT100413T17 10.00 10/04/13 14/04/10 23 m 3 y 7,903 15.0 57.8 102.000 0.99 8.84 9.14 12 8 56 0.22 8.49 9.44 9.01 8 148 156 1.67 0.038 1.75

9 TURKGB 16 08/28/13 TRT280813T13 16.00 28/08/13 03/09/08 2.3 y 5 y 3,071 0.1 11.9 114.400 3.43 8.89 9.09 14 25 0.17 8.73 9.39 9.13 6 130 135 1.89 0.048 2.22

7 TURKGB 8 10/09/13 TRT091013T12 8.00 09/10/13 13/10/10 2.4 y 3 y 12,178 0.5 3.4 98.200 0.79 8.84 9.14 -8 22 0.12 8.85 9.40 9.19 5 111 116 2.10 0.057 2.12

3 TURKGB 8 01/29/14 TRT290114T18 8.00 29/01/14 02/02/11 2.7 y 3 y 4,322 19.9 31.0 97.700 0.33 8.96 9.27 0 6 30 0.14 8.73 9.40 9.17 4 99 103 2.35 0.070 2.35

6 TURKGB 11 08/06/14 TRT060814T18 11.00 06/08/14 05/08/09 3.2 y 5 y 7,492 1.1 14.8 105.600 2.99 8.95 9.15 1 4 0.12 8.94 9.42 9.18 3 85 88 2.63 0.090 2.85

8 TURKGB 10 06/17/15 TRT170615T16 10.00 17/06/15 23/06/10 4.1 y 5 y 8,514 0.2 31.5 102.850 4.07 9.14 9.35 1 4 30 0.12 9.00 9.58 9.25 2 66 67 3.21 0.133 3.41

5 TURKGB 9 01/27/16 TRT270116T18 9.00 27/01/16 02/02/11 4.7 y 5 y 3,134 1.8 17.1 99.590 2.62 9.10 9.31 -3 -3 23 0.11 9.02 9.47 9.27 1 56 57 3.69 0.173 3.76

1 TURKGB 11 01/15/20 TRT150120T16 10.50 15/01/20 27/01/10 8.7 y 10 y 8,798 168.3 327.3 107.350 3.26 9.25 9.46 -14 -6 10 0.14 9.24 9.84 9.47 0 30 30 5.64 0.433 6.17

Floating Rate Notes

5 TURKGB Float 09/07/11 TRT070911T19 10.12 07/09/11 13/09/06 4 m 5 y 7,926 0.0 0.0 100.727 1.97 7.61 7.76 0.35 6.47 7.31 6.86 0.29 0.002 0.00

May 18, 2011

PVBP * 100Low

(%)

High

(%)

3 mo

Avg

(%)

Dur. CnvxRoll

Instrument MaturityIssue

DateDescription CPN

Local Markets Debt Instruments

Comp

Yield

(%)

Orig. TermAmt

Outstand. (Mil TRY)

Clean

Price

Simple

Yield

(%)

1 day Yld

Chg (bp)

Weekly

Yld Chg

(bp)

3 mo

Vol

(%)

3 mo Breakeven (bp)

Term(R+C)

3mo Yld

Chg

(bp)

3 mo Range

Carry**

Daily

Volume (Mil TRY)

Accrued

Interest

Weekly

Volume (Mil TRY)






2 TURKGB Float 06/26/13 TRT260613T17 9.56 26/06/13 02/07/08 2.1 y 5 y 13,377 0.6 11.1 103.400 1.31 13.01 13.66 29 2.65 7.19 14.16 12.19 0.07 0.000 0.00



5 TURKGB Float 04/02/14 TRT020414T16 9.56 02/04/14 08/04/09 2.9 y 5 y 10,534 0.0 0.0 105.568 1.13 8.45 8.73 0.58 6.52 7.58 7.20 0.25 0.003 0.00







CPI Indexed Notes

6 TURKEY 10 15/02/12 TRT150212T15 10.00 15/02/12 21/02/07 9 m 5 y 7,469 0.0 2.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 1.3

2 TURKEY 12 14/08/13 TRT140813T19 12.00 14/08/13 20/08/08 2.2 y 5 y 7,186 4.0 11.0 121.5 27.5 2.14 4 8 0.1 1.7 2.2 1.9 0.97 0.013 0.01

1 TURKEY 9 21/05/14 TRT210514T12 9.00 21/05/14 27/05/09 3 y 5 y 8,643 70.8 85.6 119.9 22.3 2.17 -4 0.1 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.28 0.021 0.02

6 TURKEY 7 01/10/14 TRT011014T19 7.00 01/10/14 07/10/09 3.4 y 5 y 6,333 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.49 0.027 0.03

4 TURKEY 4.5 11/02/15 TRT110215T16 4.50 11/02/15 17/02/10 3.7 y 5 y 8,503 1.2 62.7 107.5 10.0 2.40 1 0.0 37 0.1 1.9 2.4 2.1 1.68 0.034 0.03

5 TURKEY 4 29/04/15 TRT290415T14 4.00 29/04/15 05/05/10 3.9 y 5 y 7,162 0.1 37.9 106.0 4.7 2.41 5 9.0 0.1 1.9 2.4 2.1 1.79 0.038 0.04

6 TURKEY 2,5 04/05/16 TRT040516T11 2,5 04/05/16 11/05/11 5 y 5 y 1.090 0.0 2.5 0.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.28 0.059 0.06

6 TURKEY 4 01/04/20 TRT010420T19 4.00 01/04/20 14/04/10 8.9 y 10 y 7,736 0.0 18.1 0.0 2.6 2.8 2.6 3.68 0.159 0.163 TURKEY 3 06/01/21 TRT060121T16 3.00 06/01/21 19/01/11 9.6 y 10 y 7,509 3.4 22.6 101.9 2.1 2.79 -6 -2.0 -2 0.1 2.5 2.9 2.8

USD As trading is limited in these securities data is shown whenever available

Fixed Coupon Bonds

#VALUE! TURKGB 6 05/25/11 TRT250511F17 5.50 25/05/11 28/05/08 0 m 3 y 889 0.0 0.0 0.29 0.36 1.07 0.66 0.02 -0.982 0.51

#VALUE! TURKGB 3 01/18/12 TRT180112F19 2.50 18/01/12 20/01/10 8 m 2 y 3,034 0.0 0.0 0.30 0.84 1.55 1.15 0.66 0.018 0.65

* Benchmark issues for which primary dealers are required to give quotions for a 3 month period ** Carry calculations are based on compounded yields and assume funding at 6.25% ***Indicative levels used for FRNs that did not trade on the previous day




As of

FRA Table (Compound Yield and DTM)

TRT080611T11TRB200711T14TRT030811T14TRB070911T19TRT121011T19TRT161111T14TRT250112T14TRT140312T15TRT250412T11TRT080812T26TRT071112T14TRT200213T25 TRT200213T25TRT200213T25

Maturity 08/06/11 20/07/11 03/08/11 07/09/11 12/10/11 16/11/11 25/01/12 14/03/12 25/04/12 08/08/12 07/11/12 20/02/13 20/02/13 20/02/13

DTM 21 63 77 112 147 182 252 301 343 448 539 644 644 644

Comp. 7.46% 7.78% 7.79% 7.98% 8.23% 8.41% 8.60% 8.57% 8.65% 8.87% 8.79% 8.79% 8.79%

42

7.90%

56 0

7.87% 7.82%

91 49 35

8.07% 8.21% 8.60%

126 84 70 35

8.33% 8.57% 8.94% 9.29%

161 119 105 70 35

8.49% 8.68% 8.90% 9.00% 8.85%

231 189 175 140 105 70

8.69% 8.89% 9.09% 9.20% 9.17% 9.62%

280 238 224 189 154 119 49

8.64% 8.80% 8.95% 9.02% 8.96% 9.03% 8.35%

TRT140312T15 14/03/12 301 8.60%

TRT121011T19 12/10/11 147 7.98%

TRT161111T14 16/11/11 182 8.23%

TRT250112T14 25/01/12 252 8.41%

TRT030811T14 03/08/11 77 7.78%

TRB070911T19 07/09/11 112 7.79%

TRT080611T11 08/06/11 21 7.46%

TRB200711T14 20/07/11 63

Local Markets - Zero Coupon Notes

May 18, 2011




8.64% 8.80% 8.95% 9.02% 8.96% 9.03% 8.35%

322 280 266 231 196 161 91 42

8.71% 8.83% 8.93% 8.97% 8.93% 8.96% 8.74% 8.89%

427 385 371 336 301 266 196 147 105

8.92% 9.05% 9.15% 9.20% 9.19% 9.27% 9.20% 9.38% 9.95%

518 476 462 427 392 357 287 238 196 91

8.83% 8.92% 9.00% 9.03% 9.01% 9.03% 8.95% 9.03% 9.11% 8.38%

623 581 567 532 497 462 392 343 301 196 105

For example: Implied Forward Curve

3-month 6-month 1-year

Current 17/8/11 16/11/11 17/5/12

3-month 7.81% 8.53% 8.95% 9.34%

6-month 8.17% 8.74% 9.07% 9.39%

9-month 8.43% 8.89% 9.16% 9.42%

12-month 8.62% 9.00% 9.23%

18-month 8.87% 9.16%

TRT200213T25 @ 8.79% 196 day zero coupon at 9.11%

and then reinvest on 08/08/12

TRT080812T26 @ 8.65%

Assume that you have two options: the first one is to extend out to 20 Feb 2013 today, the second options is to stay short and then extend to the same maturity

some time in the future

Alternative 2

Buy Today

versus

TRT071112T14 07/11/12

Alternative 1

Buy Today

539 8.87%

TRT200213T25 20/02/13 644 8.79%

TRT250412T11 25/04/12 343 8.57%

TRT080812T26 08/08/12 448 8.65%




40683

As of

Semi-Annual Reset

TURKGB Float 09/07/11 TRT070911T19 10.12 182d Ref Bill Auct Simple Yld 200 bp 07/09/11 07/09/11 13/09/06 7,926 0.0 0.0 100.727 1.97 7.61 7.76 -41 43 -187 -71 -122 1.89 0.30 0.002

TURKGB Float 04/03/13 TRT030413T16 9.12 Avg Yld of Prev. 3mo Zero Auct. 150 bp 05/10/11 03/04/13 09/04/08 5,827 0.0 0.0 102.709 1.08 8.38 8.56 39 52 -117 12 -78 2.24 0.39 0.004

TURKGB Float 02/26/14 TRT260214T10 9.38 Avg Yld of Prev. 3mo Zero Auct. 200 bp 31/08/11 26/02/14 07/03/07 13,502 260.8 506.0 103.550 2.01 9.08 9.28 112 8 57 41 -26 112 35 1.90 0.35 0.004

TURKGB Float 07/19/17 TRT190717T11 7.46 Avg Yld of Prev. 3mo Zero Auct. 0 bp 27/07/11 19/07/17 28/07/10 6,957 0.0 0.0 99.075 2.32 8.95 9.15 98 46 -83 67 36 1.35 0.00 0.002


Quarterly Reset 3m Bill

TURKGB Float 06/26/13 TRT260613T17 9.56 Avg Yld of Prev. 3mo Zero Auct. 200 bp 29/06/11 26/06/13 02/07/08 13,377 0.6 11.1 103.400 1.31 13.01 13.66 549 7 259 -76 595 407 0.55 0.15 0.001

TURKGB Float 11/20/13 TRT201113T16 9.32 Avg Yld of Prev. 3mo Zero Auct. 200 bp 25/05/11 20/11/13 26/11/08 13,164 0.0 0.5 104.835 2.18 8.55 8.82 66 -66 36 34 165 99 -0.93 0.08 0.001

TURKGB Float 04/02/14 TRT020414T16 9.56 Avg Yld of Prev. 3mo Zero Auct. 200 bp 06/07/11 02/04/14 08/04/09 10,534 0.0 0.0 105.568 1.13 8.45 8.73 56 79 -181 -42 -91 1.86 0.20 0.002

TURKGB Float 07/16/14 TRT160714T17 9.08 Avg Yld of Prev. 3mo Zero Auct. 100 bp 20/07/11 16/07/14 22/07/09 11,302 #N/A 0.1 103.726 0.72 8.32 8.59 42 40 -65 70 -10 1.30 0.22 0.002



TURKGB Float 01/24/18 TRT240118T19 7.46 Avg Yld of Prev. 3mo Zero Auct. 0 bp 03/08/11 24/01/18 02/02/11 2,593 0.0 0.0 98.586 2.17 8.94 9.25 108 30 -11 47 13 3.11 0.17 -0.001

Spreads to T-Bill versus Average Volume per day over the last month

Weighted average yield of zero coupon auctions held in the last three months 7.52%

quarterly re-pricing reference (term) 1.83%

semi-annual re-pricing reference (term) 3.69%

Composition of zero coupon auctions held in the last three months

6mo ref bill 0%

Spread Dur. CnvxVol

(%)

Sprd to

6m Bill

3mo Sprd

Chg

(bp)

Repricing Guidance

Low

(%)

Next ResetDaily

Volume (Mil TRY)

Acc IntWeekly

Volume (Mil TRY)

High

(%)

Weekly

Sprd

Chg (bp)

Comp

Yield (%)

1 day

Sprd

Chg

(bp)

Instrument Maturity

Local Markets - Floating Rate Notes

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Amt

Outstan

d (Mil

TRY)

Simple

Yield

(%)

Clean

Price

Versus Bills

Z-

score

3 month

Issue DateAvg

(%)

DescriptionCurrent

CPNIndex

TL 30.9mn

549 bpsVolume Spread to Bills




6mo ref bill 0%

6mo - 1yr 3%

1yr - 1.5yr 11%

1.5yr - 2yr 85%

Yields Spread to T-Bills

*Indicative levels are used for securities that did not trade on the previous day ** Carry calculations are based on compounded yields and assume funding at 6.25%

The most recent issues of floating rate notes reprice of the weighted average yield of the zero

coupon auctions held in the previous 91 days. Zero coupon issuance in Turkey has been

historically upto 2 years. Meanwhile the re-pricing is based on the total nominal issuance to

the markets (both non-competitive and ompetitive). Term coupon is determined as

[(1+WAY)^(d/364)-1] where d is 91 days or 182 days.

6/13

1/1711/13 4/147/14

9/16

4/13

2/14

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Spread (bps)

Duration

TL 0.1mn TL 0.0mn TL 0.5mn TL 1.5mn

TL 30.9mn

TL 0.0mn TL 0.1mn TL 0.0mn TL 0.0mn TL 0.1mn TL 0.0mn TL 0.0mn

-41 bps

39 bps

549 bps

66 bps112 bps

56 bps 42 bps80 bps 98 bps 98 bps

71 bps108 bps

TRT070911T19 TRT030413T16 TRT260613T17 TRT201113T16 TRT260214T10 TRT020414T16 TRT160714T17 TRT280916T19 TRT040117T14 TRT190717T11 TRT251017T18

Volume Spread to Bills

9/11 4/13

2/14

9.15

6/13

11/13 4/149/16 1/17 1/18

Zero Curve

6.20

6.40

6.60

6.80

7.00

7.20

7.40

7.60

7.80

8.00

8.20

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00

12.00

13.00

14.00

15.00

-0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50




###

As of

TURKEY 10 15/02/12 TRT150212T15 10.00 15/02/12 21/02/07 9 m 5 y 0.0 2.1 0.27 0.84 1.80 1.34 1.37

TURKEY 12 14/08/13 TRT140813T19 12.00 14/08/13 20/08/08 2.2 y 5 y 4.0 11.0 121.517 149.043 2.14 4 8 0.12 1.68 2.15 1.90 1.19 -3.2 0.97 0.01

TURKEY 9 21/05/14 TRT210514T12 9.00 21/05/14 27/05/09 3 y 5 y 70.8 85.6 119.900 142.198 2.17 -4 0.12 1.79 2.21 1.93 1.14 15.5 1.28 0.02

TURKEY 7 01/10/14 TRT011014T19 7.00 01/10/14 07/10/09 3.4 y 5 y 0.0 0.0 0.07 1.82 2.07 1.97 1.13 1.49 0.03

TURKEY 4.5 11/02/15 TRT110215T16 4.50 11/02/15 17/02/10 3.7 y 5 y 1.2 62.7 107.510 117.543 2.40 1 37 0.11 1.94 2.40 2.12 1.08 16.7 1.68 0.03

TURKEY 4 29/04/15 TRT290415T14 4.00 29/04/15 05/05/10 3.9 y 5 y 0.1 37.9 106.000 110.744 2.41 5 9 0.10 1.94 2.39 2.14 1.04 21 1.79 0.04

TURKEY 2,5 04/05/16 TRT040516T11 2,5 04/05/16 11/05/11 5 y 5 y 0.0 2.5 0.02 2.29 2.32 2.31 1.00 2.28 0.06

TURKEY 4 01/04/20 TRT010420T19 4.00 01/04/20 14/04/10 8.9 y 10 y 0.0 18.1 0.05 2.57 2.83 2.64 1.05 3.68 0.16

TURKEY 3 06/01/21 TRT060121T16 3.00 06/01/21 19/01/11 9.6 y 10 y 3.4 22.6 101.900 104.013 2.79 -6 -2 -2 0.05 2.47 2.86 2.78 1.01 106

Inflation Breakeven Inflation Risk Premium (IRP)*

Change Average High Low Z-score Change Average High Low Z-score

TURKEY 10 15/02/12 6.57 6.93 7.82 6.39 73 172 10

TURKEY 12 14/08/13 6.80 6.74 7.02 7.48 6.61 -0.91 -3 -20 32 80 -21 -1.21

TURKEY 9 21/05/14 6.89 7.10 7.15 7.45 6.74 -1.53 16 #N/A 50 84 8 -1.72

TURKEY 7 01/10/14 7.04 7.13 7.32 6.95 58 80 35

TURKEY 4.5 11/02/15 6.72 6.98 6.97 7.28 6.75 -1.67 17 -19 49 83 17 -1.88

TURKEY 4 29/04/15 6.73 6.82 6.89 6.94 6.82 -1.13 21 -35 63 68 56 -8.66

TURKEY 2,5 04/05/16 6.82 6.89 6.94 6.82 63 68 56

TURKEY 4 01/04/20 6.65 6.61 6.79 6.35 103 122 77

TURKEY 3 06/01/21 6.50 6.54 6.47 6.79 6.12 0.17 106 8 105 138 70 0.05

DescriptionInflation

Breakeven

3-monthIRP

-688

7,509

1.090

3-month

6.72

Inflation realized and expectations

-668 6.50

-689 6.73

-695

-704 6.89

6.80

Description CPN

7,469

Amt

Outstand. (Mil TRY)

Daily

Volume (Mil TRY)

7,186

8,643

20/05/11

Instrument MaturityIssue

Date

Local Markets - CPI Linked Securities

High

(%)

3 mo

Avg (%)

Comp

Yield

(%)

Spread

to

Nominal

s

Index Ratio

Dirty

Price

3 mo

Vol (%)Term Orig. Term

6,333

8,503

7,736

7,162

18 May 2011

PVB

PDur.

Weekly

Volume (Mil TRY)

Clean

Price

Wk Yld

Chg

(bp)

1d Yld

Chg (bp)

3 mo Range

IRP

Inflation

Breakeve

n

3mo Yld

Chg

(bp)Low (%)

* Calculated using Is Investment most recent CPI Forecast for the remainder of the security's life

Inflation Breakevens

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Inflation realized and expectations IYM Inflation Forecast CBRT Inflation Forecast

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50%

YOY (%)

Nominal Yield Curve

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00





Inflation Risk Premium versus Inflation Expectations

Inflation Risk Premiums

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Inflation realized and expectations IYM Inflation Forecast CBRT Inflation Forecast

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11

%

TRT150212T15 TRT140813T19 TRT210514T12 TRT011014T19

TRT110215T16 TRT040516T11 TRT010420T19

YOY (%)

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11

bpsTRT150212T15 TRT140813T19 TRT210514T12 TRT011014T19

TRT110215T16 TRT010420T19 TRT040516T11

15-Feb-12

14-Aug-13 21-May-14

1-Oct-14

11-Feb-15

29-Apr-15

4-May-16

1-Apr-20

6-Jan-21

Nominal Yield Curve

Real Yield Curve

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021


Maturity

6.036.60

6.566.48 6.42 6.39 5.57

5.426.80 6.89 6.72 6.73 6.50

TRT150212T15 TRT140813T19 TRT210514T12 TRT011014T19 TRT110215T16 TRT290415T14 TRT040516T11 TRT010420T19

Inflation Expectation Inflation Breakeven

IRP= -3bpsIRP= 16bps

IRP= 17bps

IRP= 21bps

IRP= 106bps




40683

As of

Curve Trades

Low High Avg Zscore Percentile Low High Avg Zscore Percentile

Upto 3-month Extension

8 8.87 0.24 22 -15 23 5 1.49 86% -15 23 3 2.51 95%

7 8.57 0.24 16 2 23 11 0.94 81% 2 39 15 0.19 63%

14 8.23 0.09 25 -6 77 18 0.40 71% -17 77 12 0.96 90%


5 8.57 0.42 34 12 41 27 0.77 67% 12 54 35 -0.11 36%

2 8.79 0.28 -8 -23 -7 -11 0.73 81% -23 -6 -11 0.72 81%

14 8.41 0.28 43 6 88 34 0.53 71% 2 88 32 0.72 75%

2 9.14 0.26 27 11 58 30 -0.24 44% 4 58 30 -0.22 48%

3 8.65 0.27 8 8 29 17 -1.45 0% 4 29 16 -1.47 3%


8 8.79 0.51 14 -31 15 -6 1.46 95% -31 15 -6 1.59 96%

8 9.14 0.50 49 15 56 36 1.09 83% 11 56 33 1.29 88%

7 8.87 0.75 46 5 55 33 0.84 76% 5 60 34 0.98 84%

3 8.79 0.79 22 -20 31 11 0.78 76% -20 31 11 0.86 81%

5 8.87 0.94 64 17 74 48 0.77 71% 17 79 54 0.65 70%

12-month + Extension

14 8.79 1.30 81 3 102 56 0.89 76% 3 102 55 1.00 81%

7 8.79 1.03 38 -18 46 22 0.87 76% -18 46 23 0.89 81%

14 8.87 1.03 89 21 112 66 0.85 71% 21 112 66 1.26 86%

5 8.79 1.21 56 -6 66 38 0.81 76% -6 66 38 0.85 81%

Butterfly Trades

Yield Sell Yield Yield Low High Avg Zscore Percentile Low High Avg Zscore Percentile

50:50 weighted

TRT161111T14 8.23 TRT071112T14

TRT161111T14 8.23 TRT200213T25

Buy

8.41

7.98 TRT071112T14TRT121011T19

Sell

TRT250112T14 TRT200213T25

TRT200213T25

8.65

1

Liqdty

Index

8.65

8.41

7.98

8.57

7.98

8.65

8.41

1

7

18

18

8.87

TRT080812T26

TRT071112T14

TRT200213T25

Liqdty

Index

TRT080812T26

TRT250112T14

TRT250412T11

TRT121011T19

TRT121011T19

TRT071112T14

TRT250412T11

TRT080812T26

3

5

8.23

TRT071112T14

8

1

3

TRT100413T17

TRT250412T11

TRT161111T14

TRT250412T11

8.87

7.98

TRT200213T25

TRT250112T14

8.57

20/05/11

Sell

TRT161111T14

TRT071112T14

TRT080812T26

TRT250112T14

TRT121011T19

Relative Value - Local Markets

Duration

Impact

Yield

Pick-up

Liquidi

ty

Index Yield

3 mo

Yield Buy

May 18, 2011

Liqdty Index

TRT200213T25

TRT100413T17

Duration

Impact

Yield

Pick-up

1 mo

3 mo1 mo

1

1

2

2

1

2

Liquidity Index

2




50:50 weighted

8.23 5 TRT150120T169.46 6 8.57 3 -4.32 -55 -95 -55 -76 2.23 100% -95 -19 -60 2.23 64%

8.65 8 TRT150120T169.46 6 8.87 2 -3.99 -37 -104 -37 -77 2.06 100% -104 -37 -73 2.06 100%

8.87 2 TRT150120T169.46 6 8.79 1 -3.68 -75 -136 -75 -103 1.98 100% -136 -71 -98 1.98 88%

8.65 8 TRT150120T169.46 6 8.79 1 -3.44 -53 -142 -53 -99 1.90 100% -142 -53 -93 1.90 100%

8.57 3 TRT150120T169.46 6 8.87 2 -3.72 -29 -87 -29 -60 1.71 100% -87 -18 -57 1.71 94%

8.41 7 TRT150120T169.46 6 8.57 3 -4.50 -73 -112 -67 -92 1.67 90% -112 -46 -81 1.67 66%

8.65 8 TRT290114T189.27 10 8.87 2 -0.70 -18 -82 -10 -53 1.60 95% -82 13 -45 1.60 91%

8.65 8 TRT150120T169.46 6 9.14 18 -3.47 17 -54 23 -14 1.60 94% -54 23 -14 1.60 96%

8.41 7 TRT150120T169.46 6 8.87 2 -3.48 -13 -85 -13 -49 1.57 100% -85 -7 -42 1.57 95%

8.65 8 TRT290114T189.27 10 8.79 1 -0.15 -34 -118 -30 -75 1.57 95% -118 -30 -73 1.57 96%

Duration Neutral

8.23 5 TRT150120T169.46 6 8.57 3 0 -55 -95 -55 -76 2.23 100% -95 -19 -60 2.23 64%

8.65 8 TRT150120T169.46 6 8.87 2 0 -37 -104 -37 -77 2.06 100% -104 -37 -73 2.06 100%

8.87 2 TRT150120T169.46 6 8.79 1 0 -75 -136 -75 -103 1.98 100% -136 -71 -98 1.98 88%

8.65 8 TRT150120T169.46 6 8.79 1 0 -53 -142 -53 -99 1.90 100% -142 -53 -93 1.90 100%

8.57 3 TRT150120T169.46 6 8.87 2 0 -29 -87 -29 -60 1.71 100% -87 -18 -57 1.71 94%

8.41 7 TRT150120T169.46 6 8.57 3 0 -73 -112 -67 -92 1.67 90% -112 -46 -81 1.67 66%

8.65 8 TRT290114T189.27 10 8.87 2 0 -18 -82 -10 -53 1.60 95% -82 13 -45 1.60 91%

8.65 8 TRT150120T169.46 6 9.14 18 0 17 -54 23 -14 1.60 94% -54 23 -14 1.60 96%

8.41 7 TRT150120T169.46 6 8.87 2 0 -13 -85 -13 -49 1.57 100% -85 -7 -42 1.57 95%

8.65 8 TRT290114T189.27 10 8.79 1 0 -34 -118 -30 -75 1.57 95% -118 -30 -73 1.57 96%

* Liquidity index has been calculated by ranking the instruments accordng to their monthly trading volume

TRT080812T26 TRT200213T25

TRT080812T26 TRT100413T17

TRT250112T14

TRT250412T11 TRT071112T14

TRT071112T14

TRT250112T14 TRT250412T11

TRT080812T26 TRT071112T14

TRT080812T26 TRT071112T14

TRT071112T14 TRT200213T25

TRT080812T26 TRT200213T25

TRT161111T14 TRT250412T11

TRT071112T14

TRT080812T26 TRT071112T14

TRT080812T26 TRT200213T25

TRT080812T26 TRT100413T17

TRT250112T14 TRT071112T14

TRT250412T11TRT161111T14

TRT080812T26

TRT071112T14

TRT250112T14 TRT250412T11

TRT071112T14 TRT200213T25

TRT250412T11

TRT080812T26 TRT200213T25




40683

Low High Low High

USD Denominated USD Denominated

TURKEY 9 06/30/11 ED522190 9.00 30/06/11 30/06/04 1 m 7 y 0.75 101.000 3.58 0.00 216 63 -55 -74 -148 51 -74 130 49 -2.05 -75 -75 -149 52 -96 110 28 -1.99 0.10 0.00 0.00

TURKEY 11 1/2 01/23/12 EC508181 11.50 23/01/12 22/01/02 8 m 10 y 1.00 107.250 3.83 0.71 49 -4 96 662 758 66 -19 -61 27 -7 156 103 -1.35 49 -20 -65 22 44 144 91 -1.87 0.64 0.01 0.01

TURKEY 11 01/14/13 EC815686 11.00 14/01/13 14/01/03 20 m 10 y 1.50 115.450 3.94 1.48 22 -1 55 199 254 115 -2 -37 25 63 179 134 -0.74 110 -3 -35 23 99 177 132 -0.95 1.49 0.03 0.02

TURKEY 9 1/2 01/15/14 ED155118 9.50 15/01/14 24/09/03 3 y 10 y 1.75 118.050 3.38 2.43 14 -1 21 111 132 169 -1 -31 16 145 207 177 -0.47 164 -2 -28 17 136 202 173 -0.53 2.34 0.07 0.03

TURKEY 7 1/4 03/15/15 ED635916 7.25 15/03/15 07/10/04 4 y 10 y 2.75 114.400 1.37 3.21 10 0 10 67 77 196 0 -16 15 164 227 193 0.21 186 -1 -17 16 152 215 183 0.19 3.36 0.14 0.04

TURKEY 7 09/26/16 EF698872 7.00 26/09/16 26/09/06 5 y 10 y 2.00 114.900 1.11 3.89 8 -2 5 48 54 200 0 -13 16 157 223 194 0.35 195 -1 -11 15 151 215 189 0.41 4.55 0.25 0.05

TURKEY 7 1/2 07/14/17 EH678845 7.50 14/07/17 14/01/09 6 y 9 y 2.25 118.000 2.69 4.15 7 -4 4 44 48 200 -2 -9 15 158 220 192 0.50 200 -3 -9 15 157 219 193 0.51 5.01 0.31 0.06

TURKEY 6 3/4 04/03/18 EG876423 6.75 03/04/18 03/10/07 7 y 11 y 2.25 114.000 0.94 4.37 8 -4 3 38 41 196 -2 -8 17 153 224 190 0.36 197 -2 -5 15 153 219 190 0.49 5.65 0.39 0.06

TURKEY 7 03/11/19 EH539794 7.00 11/03/19 11/09/08 8 y 11 y 1.50 115.400 1.40 4.63 7 -2 3 34 37 199 -2 -6 16 157 225 193 0.41 202 -2 -1 14 156 220 193 0.60 6.21 0.47 0.07

TURKEY 7 1/2 11/07/19 EH814308 7.50 07/11/19 07/05/09 8 y 11 y 1.50 119.000 0.33 4.75 7 3 2 33 35 197 4 -5 17 157 225 191 0.38 205 4 -1 15 162 227 197 0.55 6.60 0.54 0.08

TURKEY 7 06/05/20 ED966375 7.00 05/06/20 07/06/05 9 y 15 y 2.00 115.250 3.27 4.89 6 0 2 30 32 197 -1 -3 16 159 224 190 0.43 203 0 2 14 163 222 194 0.62 6.85 0.59 0.08

TURKEY 5 5/8 03/30/21 EI1855820 5.63 30/03/21 18/03/10 10 y 11 y 2.00 104.800 0.83 5.00 6 -2 1 20 22 194 1 -7 17 152 224 188 0.32 189 1 2 14 146 207 179 0.68 7.76 0.73 0.08

TURKEY 7 3/8 02/05/25 ED777753 7.38 05/02/25 24/01/05 14 y 20 y 3.25 118.400 #N/A 5.45 5 -1 1 20 22 214 1 -5 15 179 241 209 0.33 213 2 4 13 172 228 202 0.81 9.08 1.10 0.11

TURKEY 11 7/8 01/15/30 EC214944 11.88 15/01/30 18/01/00 19 y 30 y 1.50 169.750 4.22 5.74 3 -2 1 17 18 214 1 1 12 178 232 206 0.65 297 2 12 14 244 308 280 1.18 9.81 1.42 0.17

TURKEY 8 02/14/34 ED283287 8.00 14/02/34 14/01/04 23 y 30 y 1.50 124.000 2.20 6.04 4 -2 1 13 14 223 2 -4 14 186 250 217 0.45 253 3 7 12 209 266 239 1.09 11.66 2.04 0.14

TURKEY 6 7/8 03/17/36 EF231561 6.88 17/03/36 17/01/06 25 y 30 y 2.75 109.850 1.26 6.10 4 -1 1 11 12 216 2 -5 13 183 244 212 0.36 231 3 6 10 194 243 220 1.09 12.58 2.39 0.14

TURKEY 7 1/4 03/05/38 EH238684 7.25 05/03/38 05/03/08 27 y 30 y 1.00 114.750 1.57 6.12 3 -2 1 11 11 209 2 -4 13 176 236 204 0.42 241 3 7 11 202 252 228 1.15 12.81 2.54 0.14

TURKEY 6 3/4 05/30/40 900123BG4 6.75 30/05/40 12/01/10 29 y 30 y 2.00 107.750 3.24 6.17 4 -1 0 0 0 200 2 -2 13 168 227 195 0.39 230 2 9 10 194 241 218 1.18 13.18 2.79 0.14

TURKEY 6 01/14/41 900123BJ8 6.00 14/01/41 12/01/11 30 y 30 y 1.00 97.500 2.18 6.18 4 -2 0 0 0 199 2 -1 12 168 225 193 0.44 214 2 9 9 180 222 202 1.29 13.70 2.99 0.13

YEN Denominated

EUR Denominated TURKEY 1.87 03/18/21 EI6053504 1.87 18/03/21 18/03/11 10 y 10 y 180.00 104.500 0.34 1.35 ####### 1 0 0 0 21 0 16 14 66 34 -0.80 21 0 15 13 65 32 -0.71 9.13 0.92 0.09

EUR Denominated

TURKEY 4 3/4 07/06/12 ED994796 4.75 06/07/12 06/07/05 14 m 7 y 1.00 102.500 4.18 2.47 45 0 344 158 502 118 0 -25 16 100 158 124 -0.37 66 -1 -19 14 51 101 70 -0.28 1.05 0.02 0.01

TURKEY 6 1/2 02/10/14 ED309964 6.50 10/02/14 10/02/04 3 y 10 y 1.00 107.000 1.82 3.75 19 0 3 85 88 188 -4 -37 15 167 229 195 -0.50 137 -3 -27 14 114 173 141 -0.29 2.48 0.09 0.03

TURKEY 5 03/01/16 EF292598 5.00 01/03/16 01/03/06 5 y 10 y 0.75 102.600 1.13 4.38 18 0 9 43 52 201 -2 -3 13 163 211 189 0.94 156 -3 -1 11 125 164 147 0.90 4.22 0.23 0.04

TURKEY 5 1/2 02/16/17 ED811620 5.50 16/02/17 16/02/05 6 y 12 y 1.50 104.400 1.45 4.61 15 0 7 38 45 210 3 3 12 171 219 197 1.05 170 2 1 11 139 181 161 0.79 4.90 0.31 0.05

Spread to Treasuries (bps) Asset Swap Spread (bps)

May 18, 2011

Instrument Maturity Issue DateDescription

Turkey Eurobonds

3 mo

Vol

3 mo Range1 day Yld

Chg (bp)3 mo Range3 mo

VolCarry*

Term Acc. Int.Orig.

Term Last1 day

Chg

Amt

Outstd. (Bil)

(R+C)Roll

Clean

PriceCPN

3mo Breakeven (bp)

Yield

(%)

Bid - Ask

Sprd3 mo

AvgLast

3mo

Chg

1 day

Chg

3mo

Chg

PVBP *

100Dur. Cnvx

Z-score Z-score3 mo

Avg




TURKEY 5 1/2 02/16/17 ED811620 5.50 16/02/17 16/02/05 6 y 12 y 1.50 104.400 1.45 4.61 15 0 7 38 45 210 3 3 12 171 219 197 1.05 170 2 1 11 139 181 161 0.79 4.90 0.31 0.05

TURKEY 5 7/8 04/02/19 EG138108 5.88 02/04/19 02/02/07 8 y 12 y 1.25 106.400 0.82 4.87 11 0 4 29 33 207 5 8 12 164 210 190 1.39 174 3 -1 12 140 184 164 0.86 6.35 0.51 0.07

TURKEY 5 1/8 05/18/20 EI2212989 5.13 18/05/20 22/04/10 9 y 10 y 2.00 100.250 0.07 5.09 11 2 0 0 0 212 3 10 11 169 214 195 1.55 174 1 1 10 141 181 164 0.97 7.24 0.66 0.07

Turkey Eurobond Spreads vs CDSUSD Denominated Yield Curve EUR Denominated Yield Curve

12

13

14

1516 18 19 21

2530

36 40

12

14 1617 19 20

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Spread (bps)

Duration

CDS

USD denominated

EUR Denoinated11

12

13

14

15

1617

1819192021

2530

34 36 38 40

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

1/6/11 1/6/16 1/6/21 1/6/26 1/6/31 1/6/36

Yield (%)

12

14

1617

1920

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

1/1/09 1/1/11 1/1/13 1/1/15 1/1/17 1/1/19

Yield (%)




Based on Most Recent Data As of

40683

Buy the ex 07/11/12 benchmark note as it offers a good entry point at current yields

0

Emerging Markets Performance

Local Bonds (2yr maturities, bp yield change)

5-yr Cross Currency Swaps (YTD BPs Change)

18 May 2011

Eurobonds (YTD Change)

5-yr Credit Default Swaps (YTD BPs Change)

Currency (USD / LC)

Stock Indices

--

-6.00-4.00-2.000.002.004.006.008.00

10.0012.00

Rom

ania

Hungary

CzechR

epublic

Russia

Pola

nd

Mexic

o

Sin

gapore

South

Kore

a

Bra

zil

Chin

a

Kazakhsta

n

Ukra

ine

Thaila

nd

India

Turk

ey

Arg

entina

South

Afr

ica

(YTD %)

- -- - - - - - -

-

-

-3.44 - - - - -

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

Hungary

Rom

ania

Russia

Thaila

nd

South

Kore

a

Ukra

ine

Pola

nd

Chin

a

CzechR

epublic

South

Afr

ica

Sin

gapore

Turk

ey

Arg

entina

Kazakhsta

n

Bra

zil

Mexic

o

India

(YTD %)

153.67

-150-100-50

050

100150200

Turk

ey

India

Thaila

nd

Mexic

o

Pola

nd

South

Afr

ica

South

Kore

a

Sin

gapore

CzechR

epublic

Chin

a

Russia

Hungary

(bps)

0.0

-60-40-20

020406080

100120140

Turk

ey

South

Kore

a

Mexic

o

India

Chin

a

Hungary

Thaila

nd

Sin

gapore

Russia

(bps)

1.16

-4.00-2.000.002.004.006.008.00

10.0012.00

Com

posite

EM

BI+

Hungary

Kazakhsta

n

Ukra

ine

Mexic

o

Bra

zil

Russia

South

Afr

ica

Pola

nd

Rom

ania

CzechR

epublic

Chin

a

Turk

ey

Arg

entina

(YTD %)

0.0

-160-140-120-100-80-60-40-20

02040

Thaila

nd

Turk

ey

South

Kore

a

Arg

entina

Chin

a

Pola

nd

South

Afr

ica

Bra

zil

Russia

Mexic

o

Kazakhsta

n

Rom

ania

Ukra

ine

Hungary

(bps)




CDS

(Long-term / Short-term) Fitch Moody's S&P Moody's S&P Fitch Moody's S&P Official Policy Rate Level Date Action Amount Inflation* 2y NomYld Real Yield 5-year

Europe

Turkey POS POS POS Ba2 / n.a.BB+ / B BB+ / BBa2 / n.a.BB / B 1-wk repo rate 6.25 21/04/11 unch 0 6.53% 8.50% 1.86% 159

CzechRepublic POS STABLE POS A1 / n.a. A+ / A-1 A+ / F1 A1 / n.a. A / A-1 2-week Repo Rate 0.75 05/05/11 unch 0 0.99% 1.78% 0.78% n.a.

Hungary NEG NEG NEG Baa3 / n.a.BBB- / A-3 BBB- / F3Baa3 / n.a.BBB- / A-3 Base Rate 6.00 16/05/11 5.60% 6.10% 0.47% 248

Kazakhstan POS STABLE STABLE WR / n.a.BBB+ / A-2 BBB- / F3WR / n.a.BBB / A-3 Refinancing Rate 7.50 09/03/11 n.a. n.a. 6.20% n.a n.a 143

Poland STABLE STABLE STABLE A2 / n.a. A / A-1 A- / F2 A2 / n.a.A- / A-2 7-day Money Market Rate4.25 12/05/11 tightened 25 3.65% 5.06% 1.36% 137

Romania STABLE STABLE STABLE n.a. / n.a.BBB- / A-3 BB+ / n.a.Baa3 / n.a.BB+ / B 1-week Deposit Rate 6.25 03/05/11 unch 0 4.74% n.a n.a 228

Russia POS STABLE STABLE Baa1 / n.a.BBB+ / A-2 BBB / n.a.Baa1 / P-2BBB / A-3 Refinancing Rate 8.25 18/05/11 unch 0 8.80% 6.04% -2.53% 135

Ukraine STABLE STABLE STABLE B2 / n.a. BB- / B B / B B2 / n.a. B+ / B Discount Rate 7.75 18/05/11 unch 0 12.30% n.a n.a 435

Africa and Middle East

South Africa STABLE STABLE STABLE A3 / n.a. A / A-1 BBB+ / F2A3 / P-2BBB+ / A-2 Repo Rate 5.50 16/05/11 unch 0 6.81% 6.81% 57

Asia

China n.a. POS STABLE Aa3 / n.a.AA- / A-1+ A+ / F1 Aa3 / n.a.AA- / A-1+ 1-yr Lending Rate 6.31 18/05/11 tightened 100 1.90% 3.16% 1.24% 71

India STABLE n.a. STABLE Ba1 / NPBBB-u / A-3u BBB- / n.a.n.a. / n.a.BBB-u / A-3u Repo Rate 7.25 03/05/11 #VALUE! ###### 15.10% 8.19% -6.00% 0

Singapore STABLE STABLE STABLE Aaa / n.a.AAAu / A-1+u AAA / F1+n.a. / n.a.AAAu / A-1+u -0.53% 0.47% 1.01% 0

South Korea STABLE STABLE STABLE A1 / n.a. A+ / A-1 A+ / F1 A1 / n.a. A / A-1 Base Rate 3.00 13/05/11 unch 0 13.80% 3.68% -8.89% 98

Thailand STABLE STABLE STABLE Baa1 / n.a.A- / A-2 BBB / F3Baa1 / P-2BBB+ / A-2 1-day Repo Rate 2.75 20/04/11 tightened 75 3.53% 3.33% -0.19% 121

Latin America

Argentina STABLE STABLE STABLE WR / n.a. Bu / Bu B / B B3 / n.a. Bu / Bu 7.69% n.a n.a 604

Brazil STABLE POS STABLE Baa3 / n.a.BBB+ / A-2 BBB / F2Baa3 / n.a.BBB- / A-3 SELIC Rate 12.00 17/05/11 tightened 75 3.65% #VALUE! #VALUE! 101

Mexico STABLE STABLE STABLE Baa1 / WRA / A-1 BBB / n.a.Baa1 / WRBBB / A-3 Overnight Funding Rate 4.50 17/05/11 unch 0 3.57% 5.49% 1.85% 99

*Inflation is assumed to remain unchanged over the net year for simplicity purposes

**Average yield is based on average 1yr bond portfolio duration

Does not adapt a target rate policy

Does not adapt a target rate policy

Last Action

Fitch

AA- / n.a.

BBB- / n.a.

Real Yields

AA- / n.a.

BB+ / n.a.

BBB / n.a.

A / n.a.

BBB / n.a.

BBB+ / n.a.

B / n.a.

BBB- / n.a.

AAA / n.a.

AA / n.a.

BBB / n.a.

A- / n.a.

A / n.a.

RatesRating

BBB / n.a.

Outlook Local Currency Debt Foreign Currency Debt

B / n.a.




As of May 18, 2011

Low High

TRY Denominated

Financial Services

21 AKBNK TRQAKBK61118 0.00 10/06/11 14/12/10 10/06/11 1000 17/05/11 99.477 0.00 8.31 0 120 31 120 59 0.06 0.00 0.00

17 AKBNK TRQAKBK71117 0.00 29/07/11 01/02/11 29/07/11 500 12/05/11 98.336 0.00 8.17 0 141 22 141 141 141 0.19 0.00 0.00

15 ISCTR TRQTISB81113 0.00 03/08/11 08/02/11 03/08/11 500 18/05/11 98.356 0.00 8.17 69 -51 69 69 69 0.20 0.00 0.00

13 TSKBTI TRQTSKB00028 0.00 15/08/11 20/08/10 15/08/11 48 17/05/11 95.463 0.00 7.44 87 68 68 68 68 0.24 0.00 0.00

7 GARAN TRQGRAN11210 0.00 26/01/12 31/01/11 26/01/12 1000 11/05/11 94.481 0.00 8.30 87 18 -2 75 33 0.66 0.01 0.01

9 ISCTR TRQTISBE1117 0.00 12/10/11 19/04/11 12/10/11 700 11/05/11 100.616 0.00 8.49 -781 75 18 -2 0.40 0.00 0.00

8 DENIZB TRQDZBKK1114 0.00 02/11/11 10/05/11 02/11/11 350 18/05/11 96.243 0.00 8.67 58 -109 58 58 0.44 0.00 0.00

6 ISCTR TRSTISB31213 0.00 07/03/12 08/02/11 07/03/12 600 17/05/11 93.452 0.00 8.74 123 53 123 86 0.77 0.01 0.01

5 SKBNK TRSSKBK31218 0.00 15/03/12 14/03/11 15/03/12 150 05/04/11 91.610 0.00 9.72 123 123 123 123 0.78 0.01 0.01

2 DENIZB TRQDZBK41211 0.00 25/04/12 10/05/11 25/04/12 150 16/05/11 91.928 0.00 8.35 96 0 96 1 0.90 0.01 0.01

20 SKBNK TRSSKBK91212 9.80 10/09/12 14/03/11 4 13/06/11 200 09/05/11 100.616 1.80 0.00 -788 88 -10 -10 0.07 0.00 0.00

18 SKBNK TRSSKBK31317 9.72 28/03/13 31/03/11 4 30/06/11 115 06/05/11 91.281 1.34 0.00 169 -781 169 169 0.10 0.00 0.00

23 CRDFA TRSTPFC61210 10.20 01/06/12 08/06/10 2 03/06/11 50 18/05/11 99.400 4.70 12.14 -30 474 207 478 348 0.04 0.00 0.00

22 LDRFAK TRSLDFK61216 10.28 08/06/12 16/06/10 2 10/06/11 50 04/05/11 100.525 4.55 11.01 353 273 392 346 0.06 0.00 0.00

24 CRDFA TRSTPFCK1211 9.78 27/11/12 02/12/10 2 31/05/11 50 18/05/11 99.500 4.58 11.68 -12 430 152 453 327 0.03 0.00 0.00

3 SKBNK TRSSKBK41217 0.00 02/04/12 31/03/11 0 02/04/12 35 05/05/11 99.700 0.00 11.56 0 169 453 430 152 0.87 0.01 0.01

1 BNKPOZ TRSCKKBE1316 10.08 02/10/13 07/10/10 2 05/10/11 100 18/05/11 99.910 1.22 10.37 1 133 87 166 131 2.05 0.05 0.02

4 KCHOL TRSKCTF41213 8.93 16/04/12 18/10/10 2 17/10/11 100 28/04/11 99.900 0.78 10.38 0 31 166 133 87 0.86 0.01 0.01

9 ISCTR TRQTISBE1117 0.00 12/10/11 19/04/11 12/10/11 700 01/04/11 96.489 0.00 8.49 189 57 57 57 #### 0.40 0.00 0.00

11 GARAN TRQGRANE1117 0.00 14/10/11 21/04/11 14/10/11 750 04/04/11 91.610 0.00 8.49 189 171 267 171 171 0.36 0.00 0.00

Industrials

12 AKFEN TRSAKFH31213 11.10 02/03/12 08/03/10 2 02/09/11 100 18/05/11 99.910 2.34 11.33 -43 347 18 49 698 320 0.28 0.00 0.00

19 MERINO TRSMRNH61214 12.36 19/06/12 22/06/10 4 21/06/11 50 18/05/11 101.850 2.00 11.32 -1 381 -30 166 561 375 0.09 0.00 0.00

16 BIMEKS TRSBMKS71210 11.78 27/07/12 30/07/10 2 29/07/11 31 04/05/11 100.052 3.62 12.84 513 469 599 488 0.19 0.00 0.00

Floater (2yr Trsy Bench+275bps) Fitch: BBB+

Fixed M: Baa3 F: BBB-

Fixed

Fitch: B

JCR: AA-

Zero Coupon

Zero Coupon

Turkish Corporates

PVBP *

100Dur. Cnvx3 mo

Avg

1 day Yld

Chg (bp)

M: Ba3 F: BB+

Last

Price as

of

Instrument Maturity Issue DateCPNTicker

Next

Coupon

Date

Coupon/ Option DetailsCpn

Freq

Acc.

Int.

M: Ba1 F: BBB-

Yield

(%)

Spread to Treasuries (bps)

3 mo Range

M:A2 F: A

M: Ba1 F: BBB-

JCR: AA-

Floater (2yr Trsy Bench+395bps)


Zero Coupon

Zero Coupon




Zero Coupon

Zero Coupon



Zero Coupon

Zero Coupon

Amt

Outstd. (Mil)

TRY Corporates

USD Corporates

Clean

Price

Ratings

(S-S&P, M-Moody, F-

Fitch, JCR) Last1 day

Chg

Zero Coupon

Zero Coupon

Zero Coupon

Zero Coupon

Zero Coupon

BNKPOZ

DENIZB

KCHOL

ISCTR

GARAN

DENIZB#N/AGARAN

AKFEN

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

3mo 6mo 1yr 2yr




16 BIMEKS TRSBMKS71210 11.78 27/07/12 30/07/10 2 29/07/11 31 04/05/11 100.052 3.62 12.84 513 469 599 488 0.19 0.00 0.00

14 BOYNR TRSCRSI81210 10.96 16/08/12 19/08/10 4 16/11/11 40 n.a. n.a. 0.03 0.00 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.23 0.00 0.00

USD Denominated

Financial Services

BNKPOZ EG5828405 7.82 27/06/12 27/06/07 2 27/06/11 150 17/05/11 104.000 3.17 4.04 -3 448 18 290 446 419 1.03 0.02 0.01

BNKPOZ EH2127114 7.10 20/02/13 20/02/08 2 20/08/11 150 17/05/11 103.750 1.83 4.82 -1 481 14 385 468 436 1.62 0.04 0.02

FINBN EF3449693 6.50 24/03/13 24/03/06 2 24/09/11 101 1.07 348 348 348 1.69 0.04 0.02

BNKPOZ EI0224267 7.00 28/10/14 28/10/09 2 28/10/11 150 17/05/11 103.500 0.49 5.86 0 484 -5 390 489 442 3.05 0.11 0.03

AKBNK EI3261720 5.13 22/07/15 22/07/10 2 22/07/11 1000 17/05/11 101.250 1.72 4.72 -12 341 -1 274 363 318 3.71 0.17 0.04

YKBNK EI4258022 5.19 13/10/15 13/10/10 2 13/10/11 750 0.58 342 0 260 354 310 3.93 0.18 0.04

ISCTR EI5507807 5.10 01/02/16 01/02/11 2 01/08/11 500 1.59 328 -3 259 352 302 4.14 0.20 0.04

GARAN EG143020 6.95 06/02/17 05/02/07 2 06/08/11 500 17/05/11 102.300 2.07 7.31 1 313 -61 227 409 351 5.54 0.37 0.06

GARAN EI6471797 2.77 20/04/16 20/04/11 4 20/07/11 300 0.25 7.49 0.70 0.07

FINBN EI6678144 5.50 11/05/16 11/05/11 2 11/11/11 500 17/05/11 97.130 0.18 6.18 -9 447 -4 448 452 450 #####N/A Invalid Security#N/A Invalid Security

AKBNK EI5999889 6.50 09/03/18 09/03/11 2 09/09/11 500 17/05/11 104.250 1.34 5.73 -4 330 -6 273 379 323 0.77 0.01 0.01

GARAN EI6469999 6.25 20/04/21 20/04/11 2 20/10/11 500 17/05/11 99.300 0.57 6.35 -2 327 3 290 325 305 0.94 0.01 0.01

CALIK EG2276244 8.50 05/03/12 05/03/07 2 05/09/11 200 17/05/11 100.625 1.84 6.97 868 83 612 865 784 0.77 0.01 0.01

VESTL ED925875 8.75 09/05/12 09/05/05 2 09/11/11 225 17/05/11 105.000 0.34 3.41 -68 388 21 286 715 530 0.94 0.01 0.01

GLYHOT EG6616999 9.25 31/07/12 31/07/07 2 31/07/11 100 17/05/11 97.000 2.90 11.07 -4 1287 19 1081 1436 1301 1.07 0.02 0.01

YASAR EI4222879 9.63 07/10/15 07/10/10 2 07/10/11 250 17/05/11 107.875 1.23 7.48 -92 606 5 561 666 610 3.53 0.16 0.04

YUKSEL EI4609299 9.50 10/11/15 10/11/10 2 10/11/11 200 17/05/11 97.500 0.34 10.21 891 8 781 917 858 3.58 0.16 0.03

EUR DenominatedEUR Denominated

YASAR EF5885886 9.50 10/08/11 10/08/06 1 10/08/11 76 17/05/11 101.300 7.44 3.21 -21 293 -55 320 506 424 0.22 0.00 0.00

INETTR 030341066 10.00 29/05/12 29/05/07 4 30/06/11 110 1.47 1171 666 1.03 0.01 0.01

MERINO EG5296397 11.75 08/06/12 11/06/07 1 30/06/11 8 10.53 1.05 0.02 0.01

TEBNK EF7916515 6.10 31/10/16 31/10/06 2 31/10/11 110 17/05/11 101.250 0.39 6.73 0 272 -174 443 493 465 5.45 -0.01 0.00

Upcoming issuances Latest Publications

`16/05/11 `12/04/11 Merinos 2010 Financials short analysis

`11/05/11 "23/12/10 Fixed Income Strategy- 2011 Outlook " Long" for long

`05/05/11 `11/06/10 Merinos Hali- Domestic sales to drive growth

`28/04/11 "03/06/10 Yasar- Greater focus on debt management�

`26/04/11 Isbank completed the issuance of its TL 700mn domestic bond at a rate of 8.34% simple (8.52% comp)between April 13th-15th

Please ask your sales rep for corporate snapshots containing bond specific data as well as key financials of the company

EUR Corporates

YKB has applied to the Capital Markets Board to issue bank bonds of TL 3.2 bn

Akfen Holding recorded a net loss of TL 1.6mn in 1Q11 mainly derived from losses in Tav Construction and Airports. Net debt stands at TL330mn, 10% up fromYE10

M: Ba1 F: BBB-

F: BBB-

F: BBB-

Fixed

Fixed

Fixed

Fixed

Fixed

Fixed

Fixed


Fixed

F: B

Fixed M: Ba1 F: BBB-

M: Ba1 F: BBB-

SP: BB F: BBB-

Fixed

M: Ba1 F: BBB-

Fixed

Fixed

Callable Stepup (NC sa) M: Baa3

Quartl US LIB +250 M: Ba1 F: BBB-


Garanti has applied to the Capital Markets Board to issue TL 750mn of corporate bonds with 6-month maturity

F: B-

SP: B- M: B3 F: B

F: B-

Callable (4NC2y annual) M:B1 F:B

Industrials

Fixed M: Ba1 F: BBB-

Callable Stepup (5.5NC5m 1x) F: BBB-

Poison Put

Fixed

Competition Board has approved the privatization tender for 100% block sale of IDO which was acquired by the consortium between Akfren-Tepe- Souter and Sera

Callable (4NC2y annual) M: B2 F: B

Putable

BNKPOZ

FINBN

BNKPOZ

AKBNK

YKBNK

ISCTR

GARAN

GARAN

Industrials

GARAN

AKBNK

Industrials

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1 2 3 4

YASAR

INETTR

MERINO

TEBNK

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1 2 3 4 5

BNKPOZ

DENIZB

KCHOL

ISCTR

GARAN

DENIZB#N/AGARAN

AKFEN

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

3mo 6mo 1yr 2yr




As of

Coupon Principal Markets Total Coupon Principal PI Total Coupon Principal Grand Total

May-11 695 10,003 10,698 79 3,095 3,174 774 13,097 13,872 11,224

Jun-11 600 3,799 4,400 145 1,301 1,446 745 5,100 5,846 11,224

Jul-11 2,158 5,080 7,238 345 0 345 2,503 5,080 7,583 11,224

Aug-11 2,619 10,592 13,210 517 583 1,100 3,135 11,175 14,310 11,224

Sep-11 1,751 8,212 9,963 130 469 599 1,881 8,681 10,562 11,224

Oct-11 1,971 2,769 4,740 322 487 809 0 3,256 5,549 11,224

Nov-11 1,226 10,511 11,737 210 1,182 1,392 1,436 11,693 13,129 11,224

Dec-11 600 0 600 145 42 187 745 42 787 11,224

Jan-12 2,150 12,156 14,306 345 2,593 2,938 2,495 14,750 17,245 11,224

Feb-12 2,612 9,752 12,363 517 2,431 2,948 3,129 12,183 15,312 11,224

Mar-12 1,374 11,939 13,313 106 0 106 1,480 11,939 13,419 11,224

Apr-12 1,971 13,276 15,247 322 1,504 1,826 2,293 14,781 17,074 11,224

May-12 1,204 0 1,204 210 0 210 1,414 0 1,414

Jun-12 600 0 600 145 0 145 745 0 745

Jul-12 2,112 0 2,112 345 0 345 2,457 0 2,457

Aug-12 2,169 12,355 14,523 395 1,537 1,932 2,564 13,892 16,455

Sep-12 609 5,202 5,810 106 445 551 715 5,646 6,361

Oct-12 2,496 0 2,496 462 541 1,003 2,958 541 3,499

Nov-12 679 14,288 14,968 70 4,009 4,080 750 18,298 19,047

Dec-12 600 0 600 145 0 145 745 0 745

Jan-13 2,276 13,020 15,296 398 1,177 1,574 2,673 14,197 16,870

Feb-13 1,987 4,187 6,174 331 1,459 1,790 2,318 5,646 7,964

Mar-13 245 0 245 75 0 75 320 0 320

Apr-13 1,645 11,899 13,545 282 1,830 2,112 1,927 13,730 15,657

Payment Term

Treasury Debt Service (TRY denominated)3-y

r D

eb

t S

erv

ice S

ch

ed

ule

(M

on

thly

)

Markets Public Institutions Total

18 May 2011

13.9

5.8

7.6

14.3

10.6

5.5

13.1

0.8

17.2

15.3

13.4

17.1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

May/11Jun/11Jul/11Aug/11Sep/11Oct/11Nov/11Dec/11Jan/12Feb/12Mar/12Apr/12

Million TRY

Date

Treasury Debt Service Projections (next 12 months)

Coupon Principal Debt Service 12 month Average




Apr-13 1,645 11,899 13,545 282 1,830 2,112 1,927 13,730 15,657

May-13 1,204 0 1,204 210 0 210 1,414 0 1,414

Jun-13 600 10,232 10,832 145 3,145 3,291 745 13,377 14,123

Jul-13 1,783 0 1,783 338 0 338 2,121 0 2,121

Aug-13 1,987 9,561 11,548 331 2,069 2,401 2,318 11,631 13,949

Sep-13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Oct-13 1,765 11,321 13,087 363 1,457 1,819 2,128 12,778 14,906

Nov-13 679 10,732 11,411 70 2,433 2,503 750 13,164 13,914

Dec-13 356 2,305 2,661 70 0 70 426 2,305 2,731

Jan-14 1,557 3,855 5,411 308 467 775 1,865 4,322 6,187

Feb-14 1,126 11,435 12,561 126 2,066 2,193 1,252 13,502 14,754

Mar-14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Apr-14 1,462 7,547 9,009 324 2,986 3,310 1,786 10,534 12,320

2011 11,620 50,966 62,586 1,894 7,158 9,052 13,514 58,124 71,638

2012 18,575 78,968 97,543 3,170 13,061 16,231 21,746 92,028 113,774

2013 14,527 73,257 87,784 2,614 13,570 16,184 17,141 86,828 103,968

2014 8,378 56,046 64,424 1,373 8,680 10,053 9,751 64,726 74,477

2015 4,268 20,353 24,621 768 5,194 5,961 5,035 25,546 30,582

2016 3,410 8,850 12,260 528 1,213 1,741 3,938 10,063 14,001

2017 2,600 20,486 23,086 387 5,157 5,544 2,986 25,643 28,630

2018 1,376 0 1,376 82 0 82 1,459 0 1,459

2019 1,376 0 1,376 82 0 82 1,459 0 1,459 Notes:

2020 779 15,565 16,344 63 969 1,032 842 16,534 17,376

2021 91 6,067 6,158 22 1,443 1,464 113 7,509 7,622

Total 67,002 330,558 397,559 10,981 56,444 67,425 77,983 387,002 464,985

10-y

r D

eb

t S

erv

ice S

ch

ed

ule

(An

nu

al)

- Beware that these are Is Investment projections and the actual debt service might deviate from

these figures

- Coupon and Principal payments of FRNs and CPI linked notes are calculated assuming that

they will reprice at current market levels.

3-y

r D

eb

t S

erv

ice S

ch

ed

ule

(M

on

thly

)

13.9

5.8

7.6

14.3

10.6

5.5

13.1

0.8

17.2

15.3

13.4

17.1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20


Million TRY

Date

Treasury Debt Service Projections (next 12 months)

Coupon Principal Debt Service 12 month Average

2.9%

1.1%1.3%

2.5%

2.0%

0.8%

2.7%

0.1%

3.4%

2.6% 2.6%

3.2%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000


Percentage of Total Debt Repricing

Amount of Debt Repricing Million

TRY

Date

Domestic Debt Repricing

Pubilc Institutions Markets




As of

Strategy Trade

Securitie

s Traded Entry Date

Entry

Level

Entry

Price

Current

Level

Target

Level P/L (bp)

P/L

(TRY)

Outstanding Trades

Domestic Debt

DurationBuy the 10-yr nominal for the carry, given the better credit story of Turkey (recommended since

20/10/10)Buy 15/01/20 15/01/20 8.49% 116.194 9.46% 8.25% -97 bp -0.335

Duration Sell the benchmark as it offers a good selling level at current yields Sell `20/02/13 20/02/2012 9.05% 86.386 8.87% 8.50% 18 bp 1.825

External Debt

Duration

Buy the 7.5% 14-July-17 USD eurobond as the the liquidity of the issue has improved while it still offers

attractive yields vs surrounding issuesBuy 14/07/17 28/07/09 6.70% 105.842 5.45% 3.00% 125 bp

Strategy Trade Entry Date

Entry

Level

Net

Cash

Exit

Date

Exit

Level

Exit

Price

Target

Level P/L (bp)

P/L

(TRY)

Trade HistoryDomestic Debt

Buy 100% 03/11/10 15.25% 77.845 15.20% 78.732 6 bp

Duration Buy the benchmark as the CBRT is likely to stay on hold for a prolonging period. Buy 11/05/11 30/07/09 10.81% 83.297 20/08/09 9.57% 85.446 9.75% 124 bp 2.149

Duration Buy the benchmark as the CBRT is likely to stay on hold for a prolonging period. Buy 28/08/13 30/07/09 12.24% 119.505 21/08/09 11.28% 123.471 11.50% 96 bp 3.966

Relative Value 24/08/09 -2 bp 0.00 25/08/09 -9 bp -0.063 -5 bp 7 bp 0.063

Buy 100% 05/05/10 8.79% 94.304 8.92% 94.251 -12 bp

Sell 100% 23/06/10 8.81% 93.228 9.01% 93.113 19 bp

Duration Buy the 11-May-11 benchmark note in anticipation of further rate cuts by the CBRTBuy 11/05/11 02/09/09 9.96% 85.191 07/09/09 9.41% 86.031 9.25% 56 bp 0.840

Duration Buy the 7-Mar-12 fixed coupon note in anticipation of further rate cuts by the CBRTBuy 03/07/12 02/09/09 11.05% 118.985 07/09/09 10.21% 121.018 10.25% 84 bp 2.033

Sell 23/06/10 - Buy 03/11/10 Cash Neutral Switch: Switch to a more liquid issue with an 11 bp pickup.

Sell 23-Jun-10 - Buy 05-May-10 Cash Neutral Switch: Earn the same yield with 0.25 lower duration.

IS Investment Trade Recommendations Tracker

18 May 2011

Trade

Summary Current Price

110.610

#N/A

88.211




Duration

Buy the 9mo to 1yr section of the curve as the carry and roll is attractive providing a buffer for rising

rates.Buy 05/05/10 21/05/09 11.78% 89.926 18/09/09 8.12% 95.221 9.00% 366 bp 5.295

Duration Buy the benchmark note in anticipation of further rate cuts Buy 11/05/11 18/09/09 9.13% 86.616 06/10/09 7.69% 88.863 8.75% 145 bp 2.247

Duration Buy the 5-year note in anticiation of further rate cuts and a tame inflation Buy 06/08/14 18/09/09 11.07% 101.962 10/11/09 9.97% 107.487 9.00% 110 bp 5.525

Duration Buy the 16mo to 22mo tenor of the curve in anticipation of further rate cuts Buy 11/05/11 15/10/09 7.91% 88.731 10/11/09 8.59% 88.384 7.50% -67 bp -0.347

Relative Value Buy inflation protection through CPI linkers Buy 15/02/12 22/12/08 14.40% 110.376 12/03/10 1.56% 149.337-50 bp IRP1284 bp 38.961

Relative Value

Switch from the 2012 CPI linked notes to the 2013s, as the 2012s richened carrying an IRP of 22bps Buy 14/08/13 12/03/10 2.60% 146.172 31/03/10 2.53% 148.398-50 bp IRP 7 bp 2.226

Relative Value Switch from the 2012 and 2013 CPI linked notes to the 2015s Buy 11/02/15 31/03/10 3.41% 107.650 19/10/10 1.38% 117.925 0 bp IRP 203 bp 10.275

Duration Buy the 12mo to 16mo tenor of the curve as the steepness of the curve provides attractive roll Buy 03/11/10 10/11/09 7.94% 92.783 19/10/10 7.40% 99.707 7.50% 54 bp 6.924

External Debt

Relative Value 25/03/09 32 bp 0.00 28/05/09 32 bp 0.47 0 bp -0.466

Buy 100% 05/02/25 8.65% 91.524 7.71% 100.565 94 bp

Sell 100% 15/01/30 8.44% 137.809 7.50% 151.887 -94 bp

DurationBuy the 15-Jan-14 USD eurbond as the issue offers attractive roll and carry and should perform

relativly better in a bear market.Buy 15/01/14 08/06/09 6.30% 116.774 11/06/09 6.24% 117.103 7 bp 0.329

DurationBuy the 15-Mar-15 USD eurbond as the issue offers attractive roll and carry and should perform

relativly better in a bear market.Buy 15/03/15 29/05/09 6.67% 104.740 15/06/09 6.51% 105.813 16 bp 1.072

Relative Value 29/06/09 33 bp 0.00 13/07/09 29 bp -0.35 4 bp 0.350

Buy 100% 05/02/25 7.37% 104.200 7.34% 104.737 3 bp

Sell 100% 15/01/30 7.15% 157.660 7.15% 158.122 0 bp

Duration Buy the 7.5% 7-Nov-19 USD eurobond in anticipation of a flattening in the 5s/10s curve Buy 07/11/09 15/06/09 7.21% 103.792 02/10/09 6.15% 113.125 6.25% 106 bp 9.333

* Trades are unwind at the levels of the 1st trades executed after 11 am local time during the day.

Swith the USD 2030 into USD 2025, in a cash neutral switch.

Swith the USD 2030 into USD 2025, in a cash neutral switch. The swicth eneables investors to reduce

duration exposure while picking up 9 bps in yield.




As of 18 May 2011

Domestic Debt 40683

T- Bills Zero Coupon Fixed Coupon Floating Rate CPI-linked Total Zero Coupon Fixed Coupon Floating Rate Total TOTAL

May-11 0 12,208 0 0 0 12,208 0 889 0 889 13,097

Jun-11 0 5,100 0 0 0 5,100 0 0 0 0 5,100

Jul-11 4,292 0 0 0 0 4,292 0 789 0 789 5,080

Aug-11 0 11,175 0 0 0 11,175 0 0 0 0 11,175

Sep-11 754 0 0 7,926 0 8,681 0 0 0 0 8,681

Oct-11 0 3,256 0 0 0 3,256 0 0 0 0 3,256

Nov-11 0 10,904 0 0 0 10,904 0 789 0 789 11,693

Jan-12 0 11,715 0 0 0 11,715 0 3,034 0 3,034 14,750

Feb-12 0 0 0 421 10,243 10,663 0 0 77 77 10,741

Mar-12 0 2,374 9,565 0 0 11,939 0 0 0 0 11,939

Apr-12 0 14,781 0 0 0 14,781 0 0 0 0 14,781

Aug-12 0 13,412 0 0 0 13,412 0 0 0 0 13,412

Sep-12 0 0 5,646 0 0 5,646 0 0 0 0 5,646

Nov-12 0 18,298 0 0 0 18,298 0 0 0 0 18,298

Jan-13 0 0 14,197 0 0 14,197 0 0 0 0 14,197

Feb-13 0 5,646 0 0 0 5,646 0 0 0 0 5,646

Apr-13 0 0 7,903 5,827 0 13,730 0 0 0 0 13,730

Jun-13 0 0 0 13,377 0 13,377 0 0 0 0 13,377

Aug-13 0 0 3,071 0 8,560 11,631 0 0 0 0 11,631

Oct-13 0 0 12,178 0 0 12,178 0 0 0 0 12,178

Nov-13 0 0 0 13,164 0 13,164 0 0 0 0 13,164

Feb-14 0 0 0 13,502 0 13,502 0 0 0 0 13,502

May-14 0 0 0 0 9,843 9,843 0 0 0 0 9,843

Domestic Debt Outstanding (million TRY)

TL Denominated FX Denominated

T- Bills1% Zero

Coupon33%

Fixed Coupon

24%

Floating Rate26%

CPI-linked16%

Type Breakdown

USD1%

EUR0%

Currency Breakdown

May-14 0 0 0 0 9,843 9,843 0 0 0 0 9,843

Jul-14 0 0 0 11,302 0 11,302 0 0 0 0 11,302

Aug-14 0 0 7,492 0 0 7,492 0 0 0 0 7,492

Oct-14 0 0 0 0 7,131 7,131 0 0 0 0 7,131

Feb-15 0 0 0 0 9,191 9,191 0 0 0 0 9,191

Apr-15 0 0 0 0 7,162 7,162 0 0 0 0 7,162

Jun-15 0 0 8,514 0 0 8,514 0 0 0 0 8,514

Jan-16 0 0 3,134 0 0 3,134 0 0 0 0 3,134

Sep-16 0 0 0 6,929 0 6,929 0 0 0 0 6,929

Total 5,046 108,869 76,022 85,287 52,129 327,353 0 5,501 77 5,578 332,931

% of Debt Outstanding 1.5% 32.7% 22.8% 25.6% 15.7% 98.3% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 1.7%

Avg Months to Maturity 1.4 9.5 65.8 0 5.6 8.5 5.6

** Excludes non-cash instruments

Amount of Debt Outstanding Along the Curve

02,0004,000

6,0008,000

10,000

12,00014,00016,000

18,00020,000

May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16

Amount (million TRY)

Maturity

CPI-linked Floating Rate Fixed Coupon Zero Coupon T- Bills

T- Bills1% Zero

Coupon33%

Fixed Coupon

24%

Floating Rate26%

CPI-linked16%

Type Breakdown

TRY99%

USD1%

EUR0%

Currency Breakdown

0-3mo6%

3-6mo7%

6-9mo7%

9-12mo8%

12-18mo11%

18-24mo10%

2-5yr42%

5yr+9%

Term Breakdown




As of

#

nominal

As of 29/04/11 Net As of 29/04/11mil USD

Non Resident 66,252 -0.5% 54.4% Non Resident20,507 0.68% 26.8%

Banks 277,203 0.0% 0.0% Banks 23,655 0.00% 2.2%

Corporates 56,296 0% 5.8% Corporates 883 0.34% 15.0%

Households 23,637 0.4% -8.1% Households2,018 0.35% 6.8%

Non-Bank Financials 7,320 -0.1% 24.4% Non-Bank Financials159 0.63% 38.3%

Total 430,708 0.0% 6.4% Insurance Companies354 0.28% -8.1%

Total 47,576 0.35% 13.1%

Source: BRSA

Non-Residents

As of December 3rd, 2010 May 2010 Jan-00

< 3 months 6,742 2,771 143.3%

4 - 6 months 1,705 2,300 -25.9%

1wk Chg YoY Chg

Eurobond Market Breakdown (%)

million USD

TRY Denominated Domestic Debt Market Breakdown (%)

Current (mil TRY) 1wk

Chg YoY Chg

Treasury Debt Stock Holder Breakdown

18 May 2011

Time to Maturity of Domestic Debt Stock Held by Non-Residents (Nominal) Maturity Breakdown of GDDI's held by Non-Residents (Market Value)

101214161820

Bn USD

Non-Res, 0.071324537

Banks, 0.652620374

Corp, 0.155864793

Househld, 0.101070984

Oth-Fin, 0.015772002

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Apr-11 Oct-10 Apr-10 Oct-09 Apr-09

Non-Resident, 0.5273901

88

Resident, 0.4726098

12

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

Dec-10

Jul-10

Feb-10

Oct-09

May-09

Jan-09

Aug-08

Mar-08




7 - 9 months 4,150 6,111 -32.1%

10 - 12 months 3,435 1,303 163.6%

13 - 18 months 14,696 6,398 129.7%

19 - 24 months 1,321 10,236 -87.1%

> 2 years 15,268 11,461 33.2%

47,316 40,581 16.6%

Source: Central Bank of Turkey - International Investment Position

Banks

15/11/10 Dec-09 1wk Chg YoY Chg

<1 month 1,755 0 1.8% 0.0%

1 - 3 months 6,112 9,524 7.5% -31.0%

3 - 6 months 6,112 9,524 7.5% -31.0%

6 - 12 months 4,673 18,423 98.2% -49.7%

1 - 2 years 27,982 19,796 -14.5% 20.9%

> 2 years 38,152 28,804 1.1% 33.8%

Source: BRSA

26/11/10

Maturity Breakdown of Domestic Debt Stock under custody Portfolio Breakdown of Domestic Debt Stock held

1,786

6,568

6,568

9,260

23,934

38,554

Total

million TRY

02468

101214161820

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020

Bn USD

Households Manufact., Trade, Serv. Other Financials Banks

Non-Res, 0.071324537

Banks, 0.652620374

Corp, 0.155864793

Househld, 0.101070984

Oth-Fin, 0.015772002

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Apr-11 Oct-10 Apr-10 Oct-09 Apr-09

Non-Resident, 0.5273901

88

Resident, 0.4726098

12

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

Dec-10

Jul-10

Feb-10

Oct-09

May-09

Jan-09

Aug-08

Mar-08

AFS, 95.6 bn

HTM, 67.2 bn

Trading, 3.9 bn0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Nov-10Oct-10Oct-10Sep-10Aug-10Jul-10Jun-10May-10Apr-10Apr-10Mar-10Feb-10Jan-10Dec-09

TRY Bn




As of

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday

19-May 20-May

Central Government Debt Stock Apr

CBRT weekly repo auction

redemption TL 2bn

23-May 24-May 25-May 26-May 27-May

14:30 - Industrial Confidence MAY 11:00 - Foreign Tourist Arrivals YoY

APR

14:30 - Capacity Utilization MAY 14:00 - Benchmark Repo Rate

Auction: 7-yr (24/01/18) Floating Rate

Note (sa) (r-o) (IYM exp: TL 1bn)

Settlement: 7-yr (24/01/18) Floating

Rate Note (sa) (r-o)

30-May 31-May 1-Jun 2-Jun 3-Jun

Financial Stability Report (s/a) 10:00 - Trade Balance APR 10:00 - Turkey May Manufacturing PMI 10:00 - Consumer Prices (MoM)

Calendar

18 May 2011




Financial Stability Report (s/a) 10:00 - Trade Balance APR 10:00 - Turkey May Manufacturing PMI 10:00 - Consumer Prices (MoM)

MAY

Domestic Borrowing Strategy (Jun-Aug) 10:00 - Consumer Prices (YoY) MAY

10:00 - Producer Prices (MoM) MAY

10:00 - Producer Prices (YoY) MAY

6-Jun 7-Jun 8-Jun 9-Jun 10-Jun

10:00 - Industrial Production NSA YoY

APR

10:00 - Industrial Production WDA SA

(MoM) APR

10:00 - Industrial Production WDA

13-Jun 14-Jun 15-Jun 16-Jun 17-Jun

10:00 - Unemployment Rate MAR 10:00 - Consumer Confidence MAY




is investment - fixed income daily 20.05

Documents

coupon bonds turkgb

fixed coupon bonds

coupon maturity180511

coupon principal

current yields fixed

compounded yield

bp hold

liquid bonds term