lng in 2015 and mt perspectives · lng demand grew 2% in 2015 in a soft market ... gladstone lng...

CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas

LNG in 2015 and MT perspectives Geoffroy Hureau – Secretary General - CEDIGAZ

European Gas Conference 2016 - Vienna 19-21 January

THE LNG MARKET IN 2015 (Preliminary estimates)


LNG Demand grew 2% in 2015 in a soft market

Around 241 Mt

Fastest growth in 4 years

Supply growth mainly in the

Pacific basin

Demand declined in Asia

Prices collapsed and

converged further

LNG returned to Europe

Demand growth from new

importers

Growth of intra-regional trade


Regional demand evolution (2013-2015)

Annual change in LNG demand (mmt)


Decline in major Asian importing countries Growth mainly in MENA countries, new importers (Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan) and Europe + Brazil, Thailand and Taiwan


Change in growth dynamics? Annual change in LNG demand (mmtpa)

Asian growth had been weakening since 2011


Europe : Net imports up 14.1% (+4.6 mmtpa) Re-exports down 43% (-2.7 mmtpa)


Disruptions and declining outputs limited supply growth

Project Country Startup Capacity (mmtpa)

QCLNG Train 1 Australia January 4.3 QCLNG Train 2 Australia July 4.3 Donggi-Senoro Indonesia August 2 Gladstone LNG Train 1 Australia October 3.9 Total 14.5

New liquefaction plants in 2015 Other important facts Ramp-up of PNG LGN Yemen LNG iddle since April Continued production declines of exports from Algeria, Indonesia, T&T


Change in trade patterns


Qatar

Nigeria

T&T

+1,8 Mt

-3.6 Mt

+0,6 Mt

MENA:+2 Mt

+0,77 Mt

+0.55 Mt

-0,44 Mt

-0.68 Mt

+0.53 Mt

-0.38 Mt

+0.64 Mt

Source: Cedigaz

Growth of intra-regional trade: Asia +10% Europe +50% Latam + 13% MENA +70%

FID’s limited to US projects (50% = expansions of already FIDed projects) + small FLNG (Cameroon) Limited contractual activity (down 38%)

FIDs in 2015

Corpus Christi LNG 9 mmtpa USA

Freeport LNG 4 mmtpa USA Expansion

Sabine Pass 4.5 mmtpa USA Expansion

Cameroon FLNG 1.2 mmtpa Cameroon FLNG


MT OUTLOOK


Liquefaction capacity to grow by 40% to 2020 (125 mmtpa of projects under-construction)

2015

2020


Demand : downgraded perspectives with a few bright spots

• Weather + structural factors • Peak in Japan, South Korea • Slowdown in China

ASIA China Official targets for gas demand 2020 revised down from 400 bcm/y to 360 Bcm/y (2014) – CNPC scenarios: 260-340 bcm/y in 2020 Competition from coal, renewables + pipeline gas from

Turkmenistan & Myanmar « New normal », pricing issues…

Japan South Korea Taiwan

Nuclear restart (Japan) + new plants (SK), renewables with FIT, energy efficiency, coal (SK, Taiwan, Japan?) LNG demand has probably peaked

Others Growth in « emerging markets » Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Pakistan, the Philippines (2016)… & low prices could boost demand (India)

EUROPE Decline of domestic production + limited growth perspectives from traditional suppliers except Russia + low prices some growth potential

ROW Growth potential in MENA (Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Kuwait, Dubai), but Zohr discovery changes perspectives in Egypt Latam: Chile, Uruguay, Colombia (2016) Other: Ghana (2016)


Conclusions (2016-2020) “Always in motion is the future...” Yoda

Supply/demand: – market looks well/over-supplied to 2020 and beyond – but low-prices could boost demand, especially in emerging

and new importers in the MENA, Asia and LATAM Prices:

– Spot prices to remain under pressure – LT (oil based) prices should remain low until at least 2017 – Profitability of US contracts will be challenged

Projects: – Challenging times for large projects but some small FLNG

development still possible (ex. Cameroun FLNG)


Thank you for your attention

[email protected]

www.cedigaz.org


1 & 4 Avenue de Bois-Préau 92852 Rueil-Malmaison Cedex France www.cedigaz.org

About CEDIGAZ CEDIGAZ is an international association dedicated to natural gas information and has more than 90 members in 40 countries. CEDIGAZ data has been the industry's reference since its foundation in 1961.

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lng in 2015 and mt perspectives · lng demand grew 2% in 2015 in a soft market ... gladstone lng...

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