long-term energy modeling for the french electricity sector

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1 Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr LONG-TERM ENERGY MODELING FOR THE FRENCH ELECTRICITY SECTOR a nuclear story

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LONG-TERM ENERGY MODELING FOR THE FRENCH ELECTRICITY SECTOR. a nuclear story. OBJECTIVES: ELECTRICITY SECTOR’S MODELING ISSUES. Objectives : Electricity sector’s modeling issues. Overview of French electricity sector today. Fossil plants mainly for peak and system operation. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • LONG-TERM ENERGY MODELING FOR THE FRENCH ELECTRICITY SECTORa nuclear story

  • OBJECTIVES:ELECTRICITY SECTORS MODELING ISSUES

  • Fossil plants mainly for peak and system operation

    Overview of French electricity sector todayObjectives : Electricity sectors modeling issues Dominated today by nuclear power (79%)

    Graph3

    0.79

    0.14

    0.045

    0.0043

    0.0137

    0.007

    Share of electricity generation

    Electricity Generation Shares

    Feuil1

    Share of electricity generation

    Nuclear79.00%

    Hydropower14.00%

    Coal4.50%

    Natural gas0.43%

    Oil1.37%

    Other REN0.70%

    100%

    Feuil1

    0.79

    0.14

    0.045

    0.0043

    0.0137

    0.007

    Share of electricity generation

    Electricity Generation Shares

    Feuil2

    Feuil3

  • For fossil plants, a recent RTE (TSO) simulation showed: 8TWh vs. 25 - 30TWh observedDifficult to bring flexibility into plants production criteriaObjectives : Electricity sectors modeling issues

  • Replacement of existing capacities Nuclear power replacement is the main driver for the futureObjectives : Electricity sectors modeling issues Future mix: Nuclear + Hydro + Fossil + Wind ?

    Graph1

    6318323006430212889259.73

    6318323006430212545259.73

    631832300643029448254.15

    602952300643025920240

    551492300643024195240

    302362300643021055240

    106532300643021055240

    NUCLEAR

    HYDRO

    STOR

    THERMAL

    OTHER REN

    MW

    RESIDUAL INSTALLED CAPACITY

    Feuil1

    Capacits Rsiduelles par techno (MW)2000200520102015202020252030

    Nuclaire (40 ans)63183631836318362950584903764013690

    Hydraulique23006230062300623006230062300623006

    STEP4302430243024302430243024302

    Eolien offshore0000000

    Eolien onshore19.7319.7314.150000

    Charbon sous critique7747774749122920178000

    Charbon AFBC375375375375375375375

    Chaudire Fioul3960396039602625.002040680680

    TAC (Gaz)2012012010000

    TAC (Fuel)60626200000

    Total (sans STEP)99,09898,75495,65191,87685,69161,70137,751

    Capacits Rsiduelles (MW)2000200520102015202020252030

    Nuclear63183631836318362950584903764013690

    Hydro23006230062300623006230062300623006

    Pumped Hydro Production4302430243024302430243024302

    Geothermal0000000

    Solar0000000

    Tide, Wave and Ocean240240240240240240240

    Wind19.7319.7314.150000

    Combustible FuelsCoal and Coal Productssous critique7747774749122920178000

    AFBC375375375375375375375

    FuelChaudire3960396039602625.002040680680

    TAC (Fuel)60626200000

    GazGas Turbine2012012010000

    Combined Cycle0000000

    259.73259.73254.15240240240240

    128891254594485920419510551055

    Steam

    Internal Combustion/Diesel

    Other Type of Generation

    Peak Load

    Capacity at Peak

    2000200520102015202020252030

    NUCLEAR63183631836318360295551493023610653

    HYDRO23006230062300623006230062300623006

    STOR4302430243024302430243024302

    THERMAL128891254594485920419510551055

    OTHER REN259.73259.73254.15240240240240

    Feuil1

    Anne

    MW

    Capacits rsiduelles 2030 ALL

    eassoumo:eassoumo:steam = charbon + fioul + autreson prend par dfaut la dure de vie de 40 ans qui est celle des chaudires fioul et des technos charbon

    NUCLEAR

    HYDRO

    STOR

    THERMAL

    OTHER REN

    MW

    RESIDUAL INSTALLED CAPACITY

    MBD0040134B.unknown

    MBD00402B63.unknown

    MBD004035A9.unknown

  • Flexibility is an important criteria for small use Only plants that causes emissions Impact of nuclear choices on future fossil share Future impact of wind power productionThe delicate question: Are we able to do prospective studies for fossil plants at low production shares?Objectives : Electricity sectors modeling issues

  • Include flexibility in the model

    Explore the effects of different nuclear choices

    Include the impact of growing wind power Milestones for this presentation: How we ? Objectives : Electricity sectors modeling issues

  • ISSUE1: FLEXIBILITY FOR FOSSIL PLANTS SUPPLYING POWER OR ENERGY

  • First solution: Minimum share for fossil plants Our solution: Differentiated plant operation mode We strongly underestimate fossil plants useIssue1: flexibility for fossil plants supplying power or energy

    Graph1

    389.9975.897333333348.25

    409.018416666785.15119.9808888889

    Nuclear

    Hydro

    Fossil plants

    TWh

    Electric production by resource options

    Feuil1

    2,002Variation

    2002/2001

    RTEJanvierFvrierMarsAvrilMaiJuinJuilletAotSeptembreOctobreNovembreDcembre20022001

    %

    Production injecte sur le rseau RTE49,57542,38944,23942,19240,95038,35339,09635,88838,83043,29545,20649,510509,523499,4382

    nuclaire*40,00334,31635,48135,51333,52231,07032,89030,34732,10435,08736,19538,987415,515399,5854

    classique5,4914,1723,4252,7331,7971,4551,6611,0412,2002,9282,6973,41433,01426,98522.3

    hydraulique**4,0023,8215,2243,8445,5115,7124,4284,4094,4225,1966,1927,00159,76271,565-16.5

    autres nergies renouvelables5147585646386743634361566295877.2

    injections distributeurs283351467478504841416152603716-15.8

    Importations physiques sur les lignes ***56834115215092112557222266150511422,8033,629-22.8

    Injections totales50,14342,73044,39142,34241,04238,46539,65336,11039,09643,44545,25749,652512,326503,0671.8

    Variation

    2002/2001

    FRANCEJanvierFvrierMarsAvrilMaiJuinJuilletAotSeptembreOctobreNovembreDcembre20022001

    %

    Production thermique nuclaire*40,00334,31635,48135,51333,52231,07032,89030,34732,10435,08736,19538,987415,515399,5854

    Production thermique classique8,1216,5765,9623,8152,6702,2722,4021,6912,8923,8394,9705,89651,10644,29815.4

    Production hydraulique**4,4304,2265,7414,2956,0706,2304,8214,7754,7655,6246,7997,69865,47477,323-15.3

    Autres nergies renouvelables1761661921791761482001751841712182132,1981,56640.4

    Production totale52,73045,28447,37643,80242,43839,72040,31336,98839,94544,72148,18252,794534,293522,7722.2

    20012002Variation

    2002/2001

    GWhGWh%

    Production injecte sur le rseau RTE499,438509,5232

    nuclaire*399,585415,5154

    classique26,98533,01422

    hydraulique**71,56559,762-17

    autres nergies renouvelables5876297.2

    injections distributeurs716603-16

    Importations physiques sur les lignes *** (1)3,6292,803-22.8

    Injections totales503,067512,3261.8

    Soutirages des consommateurs industriels92,72293,1550.5

    Soutirages des distributeurs320,303318,865-0.4

    Exportations physiques sur les lignes *** (1)71,86479,77311

    Energie absorbe pour le pompage5,6947,33328.8

    Energie soutire490,583499,1261.7

    Pertes sur rseau RTE12,48413,2005.7

    Rpartition_type_Production %

    2,002

    RTEJanvierFvrierMarsAvrilMaiJuinJuilletAotSeptembreOctobreNovembreDcembre

    Production injecte sur le rseau RTE49,57542,38944,23942,19240,95038,35339,09635,88838,83043,29545,20649,510

    nuclaire*40,00334,31635,48135,51333,52231,07032,89030,34732,10435,08736,19538,987

    classique5,4914,1723,4252,7331,7971,4551,6611,0412,2002,9282,6973,414

    hydraulique**4,0023,8215,2243,8445,5115,7124,4284,4094,4225,1966,1927,001

    autres nergies renouvelables514758564638674363436156

    injections distributeurs283351467478504841416152

    nuclaire* %0.80691880990.80954964730.80202988310.84169984830.81860805860.81010611950.84126253330.84560298710.82678341490.81041690730.80066805290.7874570794

    classique %0.11076147250.09842176040.07742037570.06477531290.04388278390.03793705840.04248516470.02900691040.05665722380.06762905650.05966022210.0689557665

    hydraulique** %0.08072617250.09014131020.11808585190.09110731890.13457875460.14893228690.11325966850.1228544360.11388101980.12001385840.13697296820.1414057766

    autres nergies renouvelables %0.00102874430.00110877820.00131106040.00132726580.00112332110.0009907960.00171373030.00119817210.00162245690.00099318630.00134937840.0011310846

    injections distributeurs %0.00056480080.00077850390.0011528290.00109025410.00180708180.00203373920.00127890320.00133749440.00105588460.00094699160.00134937840.0010502929

    Production_mensuelle_nomalise

    2,002

    RTEJanvierFvrierMarsAvrilMaiJuinJuilletAotSeptembreOctobreNovembreDcembre

    Production injecte sur le rseau RTE49,57542,38944,23942,19240,95038,35339,09635,88838,83043,29545,20649,510

    nuclaire*40,00334,31635,48135,51333,52231,07032,89030,34732,10435,08736,19538,987

    classique5,4914,1723,4252,7331,7971,4551,6611,0412,2002,9282,6973,414

    hydraulique**4,0023,8215,2243,8445,5115,7124,4284,4094,4225,1966,1927,001

    autres nergies renouvelables514758564638674363436156

    injections distributeurs283351467478504841416152

    nuclaire* (normalise)0.10011136550.08587909960.08879462440.08887470750.0838920380.07775567150.0823103970.07594629430.08034335620.08780860140.09058147830.0975687276

    classique (normalise)0.20348341670.15460440990.12692236430.1012784880.06659255140.05391884380.06155271450.03857698720.08152677410.10850472480.09994441360.1265147304

    hydraulique** (normalise)0.05592119050.05339202120.07299657650.05371340740.07700691680.07981555230.0618738210.06160832810.06178998110.07260532380.08652274160.0978271501

    autres nergies renouvelables (normalise)0.08688245320.08006814310.09880749570.09540034070.07836456560.06473594550.11413969340.0732538330.10732538330.0732538330.10391822830.0954003407

    injections distributeurs (normalise)0.03910614530.04608938550.07122905030.06424581010.10335195530.10893854750.06983240220.06703910610.05726256980.05726256980.08519553070.0726256983

    RTEJanvierFvrierMarsAvrilMaiJuinJuilletAotSeptembreOctobreNovembreDcembre

    Production injecte sur le rseau RTE52,73045,28447,37643,80242,43839,72040,31336,98839,94544,72148,18252,794534,293

    nuclaire*40,00334,31635,48135,51333,52231,07032,89030,34732,10435,08736,19538,987415,515

    classique8,1216,5765,9623,8152,6702,2722,4021,6912,8923,8394,9705,89651,106

    hydraulique**4,4304,2265,7414,2956,0706,2304,8214,7754,7655,6246,7997,69865,474

    autres nergies renouvelables1761661921791761482001751841712182132,198

    injections distributeurs000000000000

    nuclaire* %0.75863834630.75779524780.74892350560.81076206570.78990527360.78222557910.81586584970.82045528280.80370509450.78457547910.75121414640.738474069

    classique %0.15401099940.14521685360.12584430940.08709647960.06291531170.05720040280.05958375710.045717530.07239954940.08584333980.10315055410.1116793575

    hydraulique** %0.08401289590.09332214470.12117950020.09805488330.14303218810.15684793550.11958921440.1290959230.11928902240.12575747410.14111078830.1458120241

    autres nergies renouvelables %0.00333775840.00366575390.00405268490.00408657140.00414722650.00372608260.00496117880.00473126420.00460633370.0038237070.00452451120.0040345494

    injections distributeurs %000000000000

    RTEHiverIntermediareEte

    Production injecte sur le rseau RTE187666.933333333183172.566666667163,453.5534293

    nuclaire*140984.1143491.5131,039.4415515

    classique24502.533333333317279.26666666679,324.251106

    hydraulique**21460.766666666721640.733333333322,372.565474

    autres nergies renouvelables719.5333333333761.0666666667717.4

    injections distributeurs000

    nuclaire* %0.75124635840.78336785010.8016922244

    classique %0.13056393550.0943332670.05704497

    hydraulique** %0.11435561040.11814396490.1368737898

    autres nergies renouvelables %0.00383409760.00415491620.0043890158

    injections distributeurs %000

    1.00001.00001.0000

    Markal20002002Markal2000W

    (PJ)TWH

    Tot1754.71509,523615.32

    Fos38.3233,01438.32

    Hyd291.3959,76287

    Nuc1425415,515490

    0.02183836650.06479393470.062276539

    0.16691775840.11729009290.1413898459

    0.81210000510.81549802460.796333615

    Bilan Energetique (Donnes RTE)19981999200020012002Moyenne (1999-2001)

    Nucleaire (TWh)373.67395401.3415.5389.99

    Hydro (TWh)76.3927279.364.575.8973333333

    Fossile (Twh)48.655046.152.948.25

    Total Production498.712517526.7532.9514.1373333333

    Demande intrieure430.416441452.5448.7441.3053333333

    dont Perte29.815230.33130.930.3717333333

    Consommation Nette400.6008410.7421.5417.8410.9336

    Solde Exportateur63.423669.468.476.867.0745333333

    Energie absorbe par pompage6.28326.65.87.46.2277333333

    Total Demande500.1228517526.7532.9514.6076

    0.9321754864

    0.9292339377

    437.8356

    354.9312

    0.8106494767

    Feuil1

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    Nuclaire

    Thermique classique

    Hydraulique

    Rpartition des productions par type d'nergie (2002)

    FranceBase2000

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Part de la Production nuclaire (en %) au cours de l'anne 2002

    Comparaisonmodles

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Part de la Production thermique (%) au cours de l'anne 2002

    etudes graphiques

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Part de la Production hydraulique (en %) au cours de l'anne 2002

    0.75124635840.13056393550.1143556104

    0.78336785010.0943332670.1181439649

    0.80169222440.057044970.1368737898

    Nuclaire

    Thermique classique

    Hydraulique

    AC.INVESTELCFUL10---164.18

    AC.O&M.ALLELCWND10---0.84

    AC.O&M.FIXEDELCCOA10---371.86

    AC.O&M.FIXEDELCCOA20---18.75

    AC.O&M.FIXEDELCFUL10---72.96

    AC.O&M.FIXEDELCFUL20---158.4

    AC.O&M.FIXEDELCGAS20---2.8

    AC.O&M.FIXEDELCHYD10---808.5

    AC.O&M.FIXEDELCHYD20---258

    AC.O&M.FIXEDELCNUC10---4675,54

    AC.O&M.VARELCCOA10---49.84

    AC.O&M.VARELCCOA20---2.82

    AC.O&M.VARELCHYD10---24.19

    AC.O&M.VARELCHYD20---0.39

    AC.O&M.VARELCNUC10---490.95

    AC.RESOURCEEXPELC----3058,56

    AC.RESOURCEIMPCOAL---141.6

    AC.RESOURCEIMPURN---2466,16

    CAPACITY.LDMDELC---1422,00

    CAPACITY.LELCCOA10---7.75

    CAPACITY.LELCCOA20---0.38

    CAPACITY.LELCFUL10---5.21

    CAPACITY.LELCFUL20---3.96

    CAPACITY.LELCGAS20---0.2

    CAPACITY.LELCHYD10---23.1

    CAPACITY.LELCHYD20---4.3

    CAPACITY.LELCNUC10---63.18

    CAPACITY.LELCWND10---0.02

    CAPACITY.MDMDELC---0

    CAPACITY.MELCCOA10---0

    CAPACITY.MELCCOA20---0

    CAPACITY.MELCCOA30---0

    CAPACITY.MELCFUL10---0

    CAPACITY.MELCFUL20---0

    CAPACITY.MELCGAS10---0

    CAPACITY.MELCGAS20---0

    CAPACITY.MELCHYD10----46.99

    CAPACITY.MELCHYD20---12.99

    CAPACITY.MELCNUC10---6.77

    CAPACITY.MELCWND10---0

    CAPACITY.MELCWND20---226.21

    CAPACITY.UNUSDELCCOA10---70.18

    CAPACITY.UNUSDELCCOA20---67.15

    CAPACITY.UNUSDELCFUL10---95

    CAPACITY.UNUSDELCFUL20---85

    CAPACITY.UNUSDELCGAS20---92

    CAPACITY.UNUSDELCHYD20---96.53

    CAPACITY.UNUSDELCNUC10---10.46

    CAPACITY.UNUSDELCWND10---72.6

    EMIS.TCH.ACTELCCOA10CO2--9292,15

    EMIS.TCH.ACTELCCOA20CO2--527.21

    EMIS.TCH.ACTELCHYD10CO2--0

    EMIS.TCH.ACTELCHYD20CO2--0

    EMIS.TCH.ACTELCNUC10CO2--0

    EMIS.TCH.ACTELCWND10CO2--0

    EMIS.TCH.TOTELCCOA10CO2--9292,15

    EMIS.TCH.TOTELCCOA20CO2--527.21

    EMIS.TCH.TOTELCHYD10CO2--0

    EMIS.TCH.TOTELCHYD20CO2--0

    EMIS.TCH.TOTELCNUC10CO2--0

    EMIS.TCH.TOTELCWND10CO2--0

    FUELUSE.TCHDMDELCELC--1422,00

    FUELUSE.TCHELCCOA10COAL--97.81

    FUELUSE.TCHELCCOA20COAL--5.55

    FUELUSE.TCHELCHYD20ELC--6.1

    FUELUSE.TCHELCNUC10URN--1425,53

    INVEST.COSTELCFUL10---1611,97

    INVEST.LELCFUL10---4.61

    INVEST.MDMDELC---0

    INVEST.MELCCOA10---94.17

    INVEST.MELCCOA20---113.44

    INVEST.MELCCOA30---162.67

    INVEST.MELCFUL20---70.64

    INVEST.MELCGAS20---0

    INVEST.MELCHYD10---173.94

    INVEST.MELCHYD20---284.29

    INVEST.MELCNUC10---143.65

    INVEST.MELCWND10---123.87

    LOAD.ANNUALELCCOA10---14.82

    LOAD.ANNUALELCCOA20---17.85

    LOAD.ANNUALELCHYD10---40

    LOAD.ANNUALELCHYD20---3.47

    LOAD.ANNUALELCNUC10---71.54

    LOAD.ANNUALELCWND10---27.4

    LOAD.SEAS.ELCELCCOA10--W-D70.56

    LOAD.SEAS.ELCELCCOA20--W-D85

    LOAD.SEAS.ELCELCHYD10--I-D40

    LOAD.SEAS.ELCELCHYD10--I-N40

    LOAD.SEAS.ELCELCHYD10--S-D40

    LOAD.SEAS.ELCELCHYD10--S-N40

    LOAD.SEAS.ELCELCHYD10--W-D40

    LOAD.SEAS.ELCELCHYD10--W-N40

    LOAD.SEAS.ELCELCHYD20--W-D16.52

    LOAD.SEAS.ELCELCNUC10--I-D73.27

    LOAD.SEAS.ELCELCNUC10--I-N64.53

    LOAD.SEAS.ELCELCNUC10--S-D65.92

    LOAD.SEAS.ELCELCNUC10--S-N56.92

    LOAD.SEAS.ELCELCNUC10--W-D82

    LOAD.SEAS.ELCELCNUC10--W-N82

    LOAD.SEAS.ELCELCWND10--I-D27.4

    LOAD.SEAS.ELCELCWND10--I-N27.4

    LOAD.SEAS.ELCELCWND10--S-D27.4

    LOAD.SEAS.ELCELCWND10--S-N27.4

    LOAD.SEAS.ELCELCWND10--W-D27.4

    LOAD.SEAS.ELCELCWND10--W-N27.4

    OUTAGE.ANNUALELCCOA10---15

    OUTAGE.ANNUALELCCOA20---15

    OUTAGE.ANNUALELCFUL10---5

    OUTAGE.ANNUALELCFUL20---15

    OUTAGE.ANNUALELCGAS20---8

    OUTAGE.ANNUALELCHYD10---60

    OUTAGE.ANNUALELCNUC10---18

    OUTELC.CENELCCOA10ELC--36.2

    OUTELC.CENELCCOA20ELC--2.11

    OUTELC.CENELCHYD10ELC--291.39

    OUTELC.CENELCNUC10ELC--1425,53

    OUTELC.CENELCWND10ELC--0.17

    OUTELC.STGELCHYD20ELC--4.7

    OUTPUT.ELCELCCOA10---36.2

    OUTPUT.ELCELCCOA20---2.11

    OUTPUT.ELCELCHYD10---291.39

    OUTPUT.ELCELCHYD20---4.7

    OUTPUT.ELCELCNUC10---1425,53

    OUTPUT.ELCELCWND10---0.17

    RESOURCE.LEXPELC---288

    RESOURCE.LIMPCOAL---103.36

    RESOURCE.LIMPURN---1425,53

    RESOURCE.MEXPELC----5.24

    RESOURCE.MIMPFUL---4.72

    USENRG.RES_DMDDMDELC---1422,00

    EQ.PEAK.ELC.M-ELC-W2.45

    FUEL.ELC.M-ELC-I-D2.13

    FUEL.ELC.M-ELC-I-N2.13

    FUEL.ELC.M-ELC-S-D2.13

    FUEL.ELC.M-ELC-S-N2.13

    FUEL.ELC.M-ELC-W-D5.21

    FUEL.ELC.M-ELC-W-N3.85

    FUEL.ENC.M-COAL--1.37

    FUEL.ENC.M-FUL--0

    FUEL.ENC.M-GAS--2.84

    FUEL.ENC.M-URN--1.73

    FUELC_ENT_DM-ELCDMELC-1422,00

    FUELUSE.EXP-ELC--288

    IMPELC-ELC-I-D-225

    IMPELC-ELC-I-N-90

    IMPELC-ELC-S-D-225

    IMPELC-ELC-S-N-90

    IMPELC-ELC-W-D-189

    IMPELC-ELC-W-N-81

    IMPFOS-COAL--103.4

    SUPFOS-COAL--103.4

    Rpartition Production annuelle

    MarkalBase2000 (PJ)MarkalBase2000 (TWh)MarkalBase2000 (%)Donnes RTE (1999-2001) (TWh)Donnes RTE (1999-2001) (%)Markal2000V1 (TWh)Markal2000V1 (%)

    Production Fossile77.298521.47180555564.141613570748.259.384652090419.98088888893.8861960542

    Production Hydro306.670785.186305555616.431257176675.897333333314.762073946585.15116.5614994434

    Production Nuclaire1482.4169411.782472222279.4271292526389.9975.8532739631409.018416666779.5523044938

    518.4405833333514.1373333333514.1503055556

    Rpartition Production jour-nuit

    MarkalBase2000 (PJ)MarkalBase2000 (TWh)Markal2000V1 (PJ)

    Production FossileI-D000

    Production FossileI-N000

    Production FossileS-D000

    Production FossileS-N000

    Production FossileW-D54.108915.0302550.2958

    Production FossileW-N23.18966.441555555621.6354

    Production HydroI-D72.848220.235611111172.8482306.5436

    Production HydroI-N29.13938.0942529.1393

    Production HydroS-D72.848220.235611111172.8482

    Production HydroS-N29.13938.0942529.1393

    Production HydroW-D76.470421.241777777876.3433

    Production HydroW-N26.22537.284805555626.2253

    Production NuclaireI-D388.0336107.7871111111384.1999

    Production NuclaireI-N136.263537.8509722222134.8876

    Production NuclaireS-D348.197596.7215277778344.6951

    Production NuclaireS-N119.757733.2660277778118.5191

    Production NuclaireW-D343.115295.3097777778343.1152

    Production NuclaireW-N147.049440.8470555556147.0494

    Rpartition Production saisonnire

    MarkalBase2000 (PJ)MarkalBase2000 (TWh)MarkalBase2000 (%)Donnes RTE (2002) (TWh)Donnes RTE 2002 (%)Markal2000V1 (PJ)Markal2000V1 (TWh)Markal2000V1 (%)

    Production FossileI0.000.000.0017.289.470.0000

    Production HydroI101.9928.3316.2821.6411.86101.9928.329861111116.4211246629

    Production NuclaireI524.30145.6483.72143.4978.66519.09144.190972222283.5788753371

    Production FossileS0.000.000.009.325.730.0000

    Production HydroS101.9928.3317.8922.3713.75101.9928.329861111118.0444432492

    Production NuclaireS467.96129.9982.11131.0480.52463.21128.670611111181.9555567508

    Production FossileW77.3021.4711.5324.5013.1171.9319.980888888910.8221833455

    Production HydroW102.7028.5315.3221.4611.48102.5728.491277777815.4316373797

    Production NuclaireW490.16136.1673.14140.9875.41490.16136.156833333373.7461792748

    Production nuclaire (taux d'utilisation) Max 82

    I-DI-NS-DS-NW-DW-NAnne

    ELCNUC10 (MarkalBase2000)77.968.3969.960.1828274.4

    ELCNUC10 (MarkalBase2000)75.1867.1082.0075.07

    Nucleaire (RTE 2002)74.0767.6484.91

    Production Fossile (taux d'utilisation)

    I-DI-NS-DS-NW-DW-NAnne

    ELCCOA100000858525.5

    ELCCOA200000858525.5

    ELCCOA300000000

    ELCFUL100000000

    ELCFUL200000000

    ELCGAS100000929227.6

    ELCGAS200000000

    Production Hydraulique (taux d'utilisation)

    I-DI-NS-DS-NW-DW-NAnne

    ELCHYD10 (MarkalBase2000)40404040404040

    ELCHYD20 (MarkalBase2000)000053.56011.27

    hydraulique (RTE2002)

    JFMAMJJASONDAnne

    Exportation mensuelle(RTE2002)52445527696170267241617755955658627261607488762176970

    Total annuel769707697076970769707697076970769707697076970769707697076970

    % mensuel0.06813044040.07180719760.09043783290.09128231780.09407561390.08025204630.07269065870.07350915940.08148629340.0800311810.09728465640.0990126023

    W24080.1769700.3128504612

    I27591.7769700.3584734312

    S25298.2769700.3286761076

    76970

    Production lectrique annuelle

    TSO (1999-2001)basic Markal

    Nuclear389.99409.0184166667

    Hydro75.897333333385.151

    Fossil plants48.2519.9808888889

    Production lectrique saisonnireDonnes RTE 2002 (%)Markal2000V1 (%)

    Production Fossile9.47268492760I

    Production Hydro11.863689149716.4211246629I

    Production Nuclaire78.663625922783.5788753371I

    Production Fossile5.72964449810S

    Production Hydro13.747717931118.0444432492S

    Production Nuclaire80.522637570981.9555567508S

    Production Fossile13.106645683910.8221833455W

    Production Hydro11.479574825115.4316373797W

    Production Nuclaire75.413779490973.7461792748W

    Production lectrique saisonnire

    NuclaireHydrauliqueThermique classique

    Donnes 2002 I78.663625922711.86368914979.4726849276

    Markal I83.578875337116.42112466290

    Donnes 2002 S80.522637570913.74771793115.7296444981

    Markal S81.955556750818.04444324920

    Donnes 2002 W75.413779490911.479574825113.1066456839

    Markal W73.746179274815.431637379710.8221833455

    000

    000

    Nuclear

    Hydro

    Fossil plants

    TWh

    Rpartition Production lectrique (2000)

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    Nuclaire

    Hydraulique

    Thermique classique

    Rpartition production saisonnire

  • 6% minimum of total productionFossil plant minimum share Good for activity - Bad for technical choiceIssue1: flexibility for fossil plants - supplying power or energy

    Graph4

    130.5810.05000

    104.445.6301.2833.19

    72.555.6301.2850.86

    68.4610.050054.6

    26.725.6341.84064.2

    05.6377.22058.66

    05.6378.98060.07

    COA STEAM

    COA FB_R

    COA FB_N

    GAS STEAM

    GAS CC

    PJ

    FOSSIL PLANTS PRODUCTIONFrance 2000-2030

    Answer Export

    CaseParameterTechnology2000200520102015202020252030

    NODOPOUTPUT.ELCELCCOA22000041.8477.2278.98

    NODOPOUTPUT.ELCELCFB0R10.055.635.6310.055.635.635.63

    NODOPOUTPUT.ELCELCGAS10033.1931.8921.8427.960.730

    NODOPOUTPUT.ELCELCGAS110018.9732.7636.2435.2533.95

    NODOPOUTPUT.ELCELCGAS120000022.6826.12

    NODOPOUTPUT.ELCELCGAS2R01.281.280000

    NODOPOUTPUT.ELCELCHYD1R238.41238.41238.41238.41238.41238.41238.41

    NODOPOUTPUT.ELCELCHYD2R8.3913.5713.576.6813.5713.5713.57

    NODOPOUTPUT.ELCELCNUC1R1463.221590.611567.871508.761457.36899.61278.04

    NODOPOUTPUT.ELCELCNUC2100166.59303.53329.88789.261422.56

    NODOPOUTPUT.ELCELCSTE0R130.58104.4472.5568.4626.7200

    NODOPOUTPUT.ELCELCWND12000072.43219.43257.58

    NODOPOUTPUT.ELCELCWND1R0.110.110.080000

    1850.761987.242116.842190.492250.042301.792354.84

    CaseParameter2000200520102015202020252030

    NODOPOUTPUT.ELCELCCOA22000041.8477.2278.98

    NODOPOUTPUT.ELCELCFB0R10.055.635.6310.055.635.635.63

    NODOPOUTPUT.ELCELCGAS10033.1931.8921.8427.960.730

    NODOPOUTPUT.ELCELCGAS110018.9732.7636.2435.2533.95

    NODOPOUTPUT.ELCELCGAS120000022.6826.12

    NODOPOUTPUT.ELCELCGAS2R01.281.280000

    NODOPOUTPUT.ELCELCSTE0R130.58104.4472.5568.4626.7200

    2000200520102015202020252030

    COA STEAM130.58104.4472.5568.4626.7200

    COA FB_R10.055.635.6310.055.635.635.63

    COA FB_N000041.8477.2278.98

    GAS STEAM01.281.280000

    GAS CC033.1950.8654.664.258.6660.07

    140.63144.54130.32133.11138.39141.51144.68

    0.07598500080.07273404320.06156346250.06076722560.06150557320.06147824080.0614394184

    Answer Export

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    COA STEAM

    COA FB_R

    COA FB_N

    GAS STEAM

    GAS CC

    PJ

    FOSSIL PLANTS PRODUCTIONFrance 2000-2030

    MBD0035CB1B.doc

    EMBED Excel.Sheet.8

    _1160491859.xls

    Graph10

    13.35000.17091.2810.0500

    20.85018.790.170121.9410.0500

    31.02071.720.130110.6810.0500

    30.98097.410078.2710.0500

    33.760101.760031.496.630106.29

    29.390148.760006.630114.13

    28.740164.660006.630120.87

    HYD STOR

    GAZ CHAUD

    GAS CC

    WND10

    FIOUL

    COA VAP

    COA FBR

    COA FBN

    COA IGCC

    PJ

    FOSSIL PLANTS AND STORAGE PRODUCTIONFrance 2000-2030

    Feuil1

    2000200520102015202020252030

    ELCGAS1015.3164.6464.6444.4449.3300

    ELCGAS110012.0955.5550.3143.6643.66

    ELCGAS1200000155.79162.57

    15.3164.6476.7399.9999.64199.45206.23

    2000200520102015202020252030

    NUC101559.691618.771591.281573.61478.85973.35354.02

    NUC EPR00195.18307.79407.18888.211550.78

    HYD10262.17262.17262.17262.17262.17262.17262.17

    HYD STEP19.0925.9633.2625.337.0526.5127.02

    WND100.172.942.892.77000

    COA10120.51149.8110.6878.2731.4900

    COA FB10.0510.0510.0510.056.636.636.63

    COA IGCC0000106.29114.13120.87

    GAZ CC15.3164.6476.7399.9999.64199.45206.23

    2000200520102015202020252030

    NUC101559.691618.771591.281573.61478.85973.35354.02

    NUC EPR00195.18307.79407.18888.211550.78

    HYD10262.17262.17262.17262.17262.17262.17262.17

    2000200520102015202020252030

    HYD STEP19.0925.9633.2625.337.0526.5127.02

    WND100.172.942.892.77000

    COA10120.51149.8110.6878.2731.4900

    COA FB10.0510.0510.0510.056.636.636.63

    COA IGCC0000106.29114.13120.87

    GAZ CC15.3164.6476.7399.9999.64199.45206.23

    Feuil1

    000000000

    000000000

    000000000

    000000000

    000000000

    000000000

    000000000

    NUC10

    NUC EPR

    HYD10

    HYD STEP

    WND10

    COA10

    COA FB

    COA IGCC

    GAZ CC

    PJ

    PRODUCTION ELECTRIQUE CENTRALISEE France 2000-2030

    Feuil2

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    NUC10

    NUC EPR

    HYD10

    PJ

    PRODUCTION ELECTRIQUE BASE France 2000-2030

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    HYD STEP

    WND10

    COA10

    COA FB

    COA IGCC

    GAZ CC

    PJ

    PRODUCTION ELECTRIQUE THERMIQUE FLAMME France 2000-2030

    2000200520102015202020252030

    NUC101480.331562.951596.51579.071488.46954.92340.69

    NUC EPR0057.78164.85246.33806.811451.25

    HYD10262.17262.17262.17262.17262.17262.17262.17

    HYD STEP13.3520.8531.0230.9833.7629.3928.74

    GAZ CHAUD0000000

    GAZ CC018.7971.7297.41101.76148.76164.66

    WND100.170.170.130000

    FIOUL0000000

    COA1R91.28121.94110.6878.2731.4900

    COA FBR10.0510.0510.0510.056.636.636.63

    COA FBN0000000

    COA IGCC0000106.29114.13120.87

    2000200520102015202020252030

    HYD STOR13.3520.8531.0230.9833.7629.3928.74

    GAZ CHAUD0000000

    GAS CC018.7971.7297.41101.76148.76164.66

    WND100.170.170.130000

    FIOUL0000000

    COA VAP91.28121.94110.6878.2731.4900

    COA FBR10.0510.0510.0510.056.636.636.63

    COA FBN0000000

    COA IGCC0000106.29114.13120.87

    NUC10

    NUC EPR

    HYD10

    HYD STEP

    GAZ CHAUD

    GAZ CC

    WND10

    FIOUL

    COA1R

    COA FBR

    COA FBN

    COA IGCC

    PJ

    PRODUCTION CENTRALISEEFrance 2000-2030

    HYD STEP

    GAZ CHAUD

    GAZ CC

    WND10

    FIOUL

    COA1R

    COA FBR

    COA FBN

    COA IGCC

    PJ

    PRODUCTION ELECTRIQUE THERMIQUE A FLAMMEFrance 2000-2030

  • Additional constraints for supply choiceDifferentiated plant operation mode A method to guide the results toward flexibility 3 steps to find new winners (hopefully the right fossil plants!)Issue1: flexibility for fossil plants - supplying power or energy

  • Step1: Define flexibility by needed type of plant Frequency based definitionIssue1: flexibility for fossil plants - supplying power or energy

    Maximum length (hours)

    Base

    8760

    Semi-base

    Semi-base2

    6000

    Semi-base1

    4000

    Peak

    Peak

    2000

    Strong peak

    800

    Extreme peak

    200

  • Step2: Quantify the need of each type of plantIssue1: flexibility for fossil plants - supplying power or energy

    EMBED Excel.Sheet.8

    Area is extreme peak production

    Area is peak production

    _1160573683.xls

    Graph1

    75800

    75500

    74700

    74600

    74400

    73900

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    73000

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    Hours

    Power MW

    LOAD CURVE

    Feuil1

    AllemagneAppels de puissance source Eurelectric

    MW

    JanvierFvrierMarsAvrilMaiJuinJuilletAotSeptembreOctobreNovembreDcembre

    1519005720051700475004250042900419004060042700485005670055200

    2508005510050800455004100041300407003920041100468005450053900

    3499005360050500452004030040700400003800040800470005400052900

    4509005420051500462004100041000401003830041100475005380053700

    5522005520053400487004300042700410004040043500490005500054600

    6554005620056700538004710046300440004390048900529005700057100

    7620006270061700599005480054800521005140057000601006370065300

    8694006710067000653006120061200578005740061400673006930072300

    9699006910068400677006370064000603005930063600682007110073500

    10691006930068100679006380064600610006030064000682007200073600

    11695007050068800693006490066500619006210064900688007230073900

    12699007120071100698006600067500633006230065700689007340075800

    13687007070068300686006520065500611006150064500669007330074400

    14679006970067100676006360064300601006010063200649007200073400

    15662006850065900665006200063400587005900062000637007140072900

    16658006690063600644006080061300569005720060600625007080072900

    17665006610061900625005920059600556005570058800602007280074600

    18711006870062700625005910058200549005530058400612007390075500

    19710007250067700617005940057700544005490059000667007300074700

    20682006930068500611005820055800526005420061400665007100072400

    21639006500063900615005610054100503005290058900619006630068000

    22623006470061900599005560052600497005020054200592006460066500

    23604006300060000574005180051500474004690050200569006300064500

    24575006290058400531004770047800434004240045600532005940061000

    Anne moy62933.333333333364558.333333333362066.666666666759733.333333333355333.333333333355220.83333333335205051812.555479.16666666675987566012.567191.666666666759355.5555555556

    1.06027704981.08765443651.04567577691.00636465740.93223511790.93033976040.8769187570.87291744660.93469206291.0087514041.11215368781.13201984281

    hiveretintermdiaire

    0.41666666670.250.3333333333

    HiverHiverEtEtIntermdiaireIntermdiaire

    1545400.8448936912418000.7882661079453000.7863872263

    2530200.8213469656404000.7618648507436000.7568760059

    3521800.808334301539566.66666666670.7461498167433250.752102132

    4528200.8182487123398000.7505500262439500.7629518454

    5540800.837767708541366.66666666670.7800942902460500.7994068823

    6564800.874946748844733.33333333330.8435830278506750.8796947614

    7630800.977189109652766.66666666670.995075956579501.0059854252

    8690201.0692072344588001.1088528025638001.1075387425

    9704001.0905851826612001.1541121006658001.1422578254

    10704201.090895007961966.66666666671.1685699319659751.1452957451

    11710001.0998799427635001.1974855946669751.1626552865

    12722801.119708764264366.66666666671.21382923676001.1735049999

    13710801.101119244627001.1823991619663001.1509375961

    14700201.0846985012615001.1597695128648251.1253322725

    15689801.068587583760366.66666666671.1383970665635501.1031988572

    16680001.053406142358466.66666666671.1025667889620751.0775935336

    17683801.059292823756966.66666666671.0742797276601751.0446104049

    18703801.090275357356133.33333333331.0585646936603001.0467803476

    19717801.111963130855666.66666666671.0497642745617001.0710837055

    20698801.0825297239542001.0221058146618001.0728196597

    21654201.013438673952433.33333333330.9887899424596001.0346286686

    22640000.991441075150833.33333333330.958617077572250.9933997577

    23621800.9632469695486000.9165007858540750.93871720220.4170.250.333

    24598400.926997405244533.33333333330.8398114196499000.8662411168

    64552.5153027.7777777778157605.208333333310.2606250.156250.208125

    0.1563750.093750.124875

    Feuil1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Mois

    MW

    Courbe de charge annuelle

    Feuil3

    000000000000

    000000000000

    000000000000

    000000000000

    000000000000

    000000000000

    000000000000

    000000000000

    000000000000

    000000000000

    000000000000

    000000000000

    000000000000

    000000000000

    000000000000

    000000000000

    000000000000

    000000000000

    000000000000

    000000000000

    000000000000

    000000000000

    000000000000

    000000000000

    Janvier

    Fvrier

    Mars

    Avril

    Mai

    Juin

    Juillet

    Aot

    Septembre

    Octobre

    Novembre

    Dcembre

    SAISONNIER

    000000000000000000000000

    000000000000000000000000

    000000000000000000000000

    000000000000000000000000

    000000000000000000000000

    000000000000000000000000

    000000000000000000000000

    000000000000000000000000

    000000000000000000000000

    000000000000000000000000

    000000000000000000000000

    000000000000000000000000

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    11

    12

    13

    14

    15

    16

    17

    18

    19

    20

    21

    22

    23

    24

    Monotone

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Hiver

    Feuil2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Et

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Intermdiaire

    Allemagne

    MW

    JanvierFvrierMarsAvrilMaiJuinJuilletAotSeptembreOctobreNovembreDcembre

    1519005720051700475004250042900419004060042700485005670055200

    2508005510050800455004100041300407003920041100468005450053900

    3499005360050500452004030040700400003800040800470005400052900

    4509005420051500462004100041000401003830041100475005380053700

    5522005520053400487004300042700410004040043500490005500054600

    6554005620056700538004710046300440004390048900529005700057100

    7620006270061700599005480054800521005140057000601006370065300

    8694006710067000653006120061200578005740061400673006930072300

    9699006910068400677006370064000603005930063600682007110073500

    10691006930068100679006380064600610006030064000682007200073600

    11695007050068800693006490066500619006210064900688007230073900

    12699007120071100698006600067500633006230065700689007340075800

    13687007070068300686006520065500611006150064500669007330074400

    14679006970067100676006360064300601006010063200649007200073400

    15662006850065900665006200063400587005900062000637007140072900

    16658006690063600644006080061300569005720060600625007080072900

    17665006610061900625005920059600556005570058800602007280074600

    18711006870062700625005910058200549005530058400612007390075500

    19710007250067700617005940057700544005490059000667007300074700

    20682006930068500611005820055800526005420061400665007100072400

    21639006500063900615005610054100503005290058900619006630068000

    22623006470061900599005560052600497005020054200592006460066500

    23604006300060000574005180051500474004690050200569006300064500

    24575006290058400531004770047800434004240045600532005940061000

    Anne moy62933.333333333364558.333333333362066.666666666759733.333333333355333.333333333355220.83333333335205051812.555479.16666666675987566012.567191.666666666759355.5555555556

    1.06027704981.08765443651.04567577691.00636465740.93223511790.93033976040.8769187570.87291744660.93469206291.0087514041.11215368781.13201984281

    DemandeHiverEtIntermdiaireHiverEtIntermdiaire

    1272700125400181200Jour552060027956004022600

    2265100121200174400%0.3229478660.16353893670.2353168289

    3260900118700173300Nuit222570010224001507500

    4264100119400175800%0.13020053350.05980906030.0881867746

    5270400124100184200

    6282400134200202700Rpartition de la demande

    7315400158300231800

    8345100176400255200

    9352000183600263200

    10352100185900263900

    11355000190500267900

    12361400193100270400

    13355400188100265200

    14350100184500259300

    15344900181100254200

    16340000175400248300

    17341900170900240700

    18351900168400241200

    19358900167000246800

    20349400162600247200

    21327100157300238400

    22320000152500228900

    23310900145800216300

    24299200133600199600

    77463003818000553010017094400

    AllemagneAppels de puissance source Eurelectric

    MW

    AnneAnne JourAnne NuitIntermdiaireEtHiverJanvierFvrierMarsAvrilMaiJuinJuilletAotSeptembreOctobreNovembreDcembre

    Janvier519006200051900Mars51700Mai42500Janvier51900519005720051700475004250042900419004060042700485005670055200

    508006940050800508004100050800508005510050800455004100041300407003920041100468005450053900

    499006990049900505004030049900499005360050500452004030040700400003800040800470005400052900

    509006910050900515004100050900509005420051500462004100041000401003830041100475005380053700

    522006950052200534004300052200522005520053400487004300042700410004040043500490005500054600

    554006990055400567004710055400554005620056700538004710046300440004390048900529005700057100

    620006870057500617005480062000620006270061700599005480054800521005140057000601006370065300

    694006790057200670006120069400694006710067000653006120061200578005740061400673006930072300

    699006620055100684006370069900699006910068400677006370064000603005930063600682007110073500

    691006580053600681006380069100691006930068100679006380064600610006030064000682007200073600

    695006650054200688006490069500695007050068800693006490066500619006210064900688007230073900

    699007110055200711006600069900699007120071100698006600067500633006230065700689007340075800

    687007100056200683006520068700687007070068300686006520065500611006150064500669007330074400

    679006820062900671006360067900679006970067100676006360064300601006010063200649007200073400

    662006390051700659006200066200662006850065900665006200063400587005900062000637007140072900

    658006230050800636006080065800658006690063600644006080061300569005720060600625007080072900

    665006040050500619005920066500665006610061900625005920059600556005570058800602007280074600

    711006270051500627005910071100711006870062700625005910058200549005530058400612007390075500

    710006710053400677005940071000710007250067700617005940057700544005490059000667007300074700

    682006910056700685005820068200682006930068500611005820055800526005420061400665007100072400

    639006930058400639005610063900639006500063900615005610054100503005290058900619006630068000

    623007050047500619005560062300623006470061900599005560052600497005020054200592006460066500

    604007120045500600005180060400604006300060000574005180051500474004690050200569006300064500

    575007070045200584004770057500575006290058400531004770047800434004240045600532005940061000

    Fvrier572006970046200Avril47500Juin42900Fvrier57200

    551006850048700455004130055100

    536006690053800452004070053600

    542006610053100462004100054200

    552006870042500487004270055200

    562007250041000538004630056200

    627006930040300599005480062700

    671006500041000653006120067100

    691006470043000677006400069100

    693006300047100679006460069300

    705006170047700693006650070500

    712006700042900698006750071200

    707006840041300686006550070700

    697006810040700676006430069700

    685006880041000665006340068500

    669007110042700644006130066900

    661006830046300625005960066100

    687006710047800625005820068700

    725006590041900617005770072500

    693006360040700611005580069300

    650006190040000615005410065000

    647006270040100599005260064700

    630006770041000574005150063000

    629006850044000531004780062900

    Mars517006390043400Septembre42700Juillet41900Novembre56700

    508006190040600411004070054500

    505006000039200408004000054000

    515005990038000411004010053800

    534006530038300435004100055000

    567006770040400489004400057000

    617006790043900570005210063700

    670006930042400614005780069300

    684006980042700636006030071100

    681006860041100640006100072000

    688006760040800649006190072300

    711006650041100657006330073400

    683006440043500645006110073300

    671006250048900632006010072000

    659006250045600620005870071400

    636006170048500606005690070800

    619006110046800588005560072800

    627006150047000584005490073900

    677005990047500590005440073000

    685005740049000614005260071000

    639005480052900589005030066300

    619006120053200542004970064600

    600006370056700502004740063000

    584006380054500456004340059400

    Avril475006490054000Octobre48500Aout40600Dcembre55200

    455006600053800468003920053900

    452006520055000470003800052900

    462006360057000475003830053700

    487006200059400490004040054600

    538006080055200529004390057100

    599005920053900601005140065300

    653005910052900673005740072300

    677005940053700682005930073500

    679005820054600682006030073600

    693005610057100688006210073900

    698005560061000689006230075800

    6860051800669006150074400

    6760054800649006010073400

    6650061200637005900072900

    6440064000625005720072900

    6250064600602005570074600

    6250066500612005530075500

    6170067500667005490074700

    6110065500665005420072400

    6150064300619005290068000

    5990063400592005020066500

    5740061300569004690064500

    5310059600532004240061000

    Mai4250058200

    4100057700

    4030055800

    4100054100

    4300052600

    4710051500

    5480052100

    6120057800

    6370060300

    6380061000

    6490061900

    6600063300

    6520061100

    6360060100

    6200058700

    6080056900

    5920055600

    5910054900

    5940054400

    5820052600

    5610050300

    5560049700

    5180047400

    4770051400

    Juin4290057400

    4130059300

    4070060300

    4100062100

    4270062300

    4630061500

    5480060100

    6120059000

    6400057200

    6460055700

    6650055300

    6750054900

    6550054200

    6430052900

    6340050200

    6130046900

    5960057000

    5820061400

    5770063600

    5580064000

    5410064900

    5260065700

    5150064500

    4780063200

    Juillet4190062000

    4070060600

    4000058800

    4010058400

    4100059000

    4400061400

    5210058900

    5780054200

    6030050200

    6100060100

    6190067300

    6330068200

    6110068200

    6010068800

    5870068900

    5690066900

    5560064900

    5490063700

    5440062500

    5260060200

    5030061200

    4970066700

    4740066500

    4340061900

    Aout4060059200

    3920056900

    3800063700

    3830069300

    4040071100

    4390072000

    5140072300

    5740073400

    5930073300

    6030072000

    6210071400

    6230070800

    6150072800

    6010073900

    5900073000

    5720071000

    5570066300

    5530064600

    5490063000

    5420065300

    5290072300

    5020073500

    4690073600

    4240073900

    Septembre4270075800

    4110074400

    4080073400

    4110072900

    4350072900

    4890074600

    5700075500

    6140074700

    6360072400

    6400068000

    6490066500

    6570064500

    64500

    63200

    62000

    60600

    58800

    58400

    59000

    61400

    58900

    54200

    50200

    45600

    Octobre48500

    46800

    47000

    47500

    49000

    52900

    60100

    67300

    68200

    68200

    68800

    68900

    66900

    64900

    63700

    62500

    60200

    61200

    66700

    66500

    61900

    59200

    56900

    53200

    Novembre56700

    54500

    54000

    53800

    55000

    57000

    63700

    69300

    71100

    72000

    72300

    73400

    73300

    72000

    71400

    70800

    72800

    73900

    73000

    71000

    66300

    64600

    63000

    59400

    Dcembre55200

    53900

    52900

    53700

    54600

    57100

    65300

    72300

    73500

    73600

    73900

    75800

    74400

    73400

    72900

    72900

    74600

    75500

    74700

    72400

    68000

    66500

    64500

    61000

    0.8448936912

    0.8213469656

    0.8083343015

    0.8182487123

    0.8377677085

    0.8749467488

    0.9771891096

    1.0692072344

    1.0905851826

    1.0908950079

    1.0998799427

    1.1197087642

    1.101119244

    1.0846985012

    1.0685875837

    1.0534061423

    1.0592928237

    1.0902753573

    1.1119631308

    1.0825297239

    1.0134386739

    0.9914410751

    0.9632469695

    0.9269974052

    Hiver

    0.7882661079

    0.7618648507

    0.7461498167

    0.7505500262

    0.7800942902

    0.8435830278

    0.995075956

    1.1088528025

    1.1541121006

    1.1685699319

    1.1974855946

    1.21382923

    1.1823991619

    1.1597695128

    1.1383970665

    1.1025667889

    1.0742797276

    1.0585646936

    1.0497642745

    1.0221058146

    0.9887899424

    0.958617077

    0.9165007858

    0.8398114196

    Et

    0.7863872263

    0.7568760059

    0.752102132

    0.7629518454

    0.7994068823

    0.8796947614

    1.0059854252

    1.1075387425

    1.1422578254

    1.1452957451

    1.1626552865

    1.1735049999

    1.1509375961

    1.1253322725

    1.1031988572

    1.0775935336

    1.0446104049

    1.0467803476

    1.0710837055

    1.0728196597

    1.0346286686

    0.9933997577

    0.9387172022

    0.8662411168

    Intermdiaire

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Anne Jour

    Puissances appeles en MW

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Anne Nuit

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Anne

    Puissances appeles MW

    51700

    50800

    50500

    51500

    53400

    56700

    61700

    67000

    68400

    68100

    68800

    71100

    68300

    67100

    65900

    63600

    61900

    62700

    67700

    68500

    63900

    61900

    60000

    58400

    47500

    45500

    45200

    46200

    48700

    53800

    59900

    65300

    67700

    67900

    69300

    69800

    68600

    67600

    66500

    64400

    62500

    62500

    61700

    61100

    61500

    59900

    57400

    53100

    42700

    41100

    40800

    41100

    43500

    48900

    57000

    61400

    63600

    64000

    64900

    65700

    64500

    63200

    62000

    60600

    58800

    58400

    59000

    61400

    58900

    54200

    50200

    45600

    48500

    46800

    47000

    47500

    49000

    52900

    60100

    67300

    68200

    68200

    68800

    68900

    66900

    64900

    63700

    62500

    60200

    61200

    66700

    66500

    61900

    59200

    56900

    53200

    Intermdiaire

    42500

    41000

    40300

    41000

    43000

    47100

    54800

    61200

    63700

    63800

    64900

    66000

    65200

    63600

    62000

    60800

    59200

    59100

    59400

    58200

    56100

    55600

    51800

    47700

    42900

    41300

    40700

    41000

    42700

    46300

    54800

    61200

    64000

    64600

    66500

    67500

    65500

    64300

    63400

    61300

    59600

    58200

    57700

    55800

    54100

    52600

    51500

    47800

    41900

    40700

    40000

    40100

    41000

    44000

    52100

    57800

    60300

    61000

    61900

    63300

    61100

    60100

    58700

    56900

    55600

    54900

    54400

    52600

    50300

    49700

    47400

    43400

    40600

    39200

    38000

    38300

    40400

    43900

    51400

    57400

    59300

    60300

    62100

    62300

    61500

    60100

    59000

    57200

    55700

    55300

    54900

    54200

    52900

    50200

    46900

    42400

    Et

    51900

    50800

    49900

    50900

    52200

    55400

    62000

    69400

    69900

    69100

    69500

    69900

    68700

    67900

    66200

    65800

    66500

    71100

    71000

    68200

    63900

    62300

    60400

    57500

    57200

    55100

    53600

    54200

    55200

    56200

    62700

    67100

    69100

    69300

    70500

    71200

    70700

    69700

    68500

    66900

    66100

    68700

    72500

    69300

    65000

    64700

    63000

    62900

    56700

    54500

    54000

    53800

    55000

    57000

    63700

    69300

    71100

    72000

    72300

    73400

    73300

    72000

    71400

    70800

    72800

    73900

    73000

    71000

    66300

    64600

    63000

    59400

    55200

    53900

    52900

    53700

    54600

    57100

    65300

    72300

    73500

    73600

    73900

    75800

    74400

    73400

    72900

    72900

    74600

    75500

    74700

    72400

    68000

    66500

    64500

    61000

    Hiver

    AllemagneAppels de puissance source Eurelectric

    1 pas correspond 30,4hpas de temps en heure30.4heures du dcoupageFrquence journalire quivalenteDure journalire max quivalente

    MWX2000.5479452055une demi heure par jour

    AnneAnne JourAnne NuitAnne MonotCourbe cumuleHeures cumulesnergie cumule MWhPuissance MonotPF8002.19178082192 heures par jour

    Janvier5190062000519001758007580030.4230432075800Energie totale 8760519669760P20005.47945205485 heures et demi par jour

    50800694005080027550015130060.8459952075500S1400010.958904109611 heures par jour

    49900699004990037470022600091.3687040074700S2600016.438356164416 heures et demi par jour

    509006910050900474600300600121.7913824074600BASE876024toute la journe

    522006950052200574400375000152.11140000074400

    554006990055400673900448900182.51364656073900ligneheures du dcoupagePente cum nrjNRJ cumulePente puissancePuissance

    620006870057500773900522800212.9158931207390011X20073859.506849315114939101.369863073900

    694006790057200873600596400243.3181305607360031PF80071061.041095890558408352.8767123071100

    699006620055100973500669900273.8203649607350070P200067263.1232876711141132166.575342-6.575342465867349.3150684932

    6910065800536001073400743300304.22259632073400136S1400061666.1917808222269729247.123288-6.575342465861798.6301369863

    6950066500542001173400816700334.62482768073400202S2600055069.8082191775387178689.315069-3.287671232955173.9726027397

    6990071100552001273300890000365.02705600073300292BASE876037979.1780821925519669760-9.86301369860

    6870071000562001373000963000395.42927520073000

    67900682006290014729001035900425.83149136072900

    66200639005170015729001108800456.33370752072900

    65800623005080016728001181600486.73592064072800

    66500604005050017725001254100517.13812464072500heures du dcoupageAire A MWhAire diff MWh%

    71100627005150018724001326500547.54032560072400X200159,101.37159,101.370.031%

    71000671005340019723001398800577.94252352072300PF8001,528,352.881,369,251.510.263%

    68200691005670020723001471100608.34472144072300P20006,433,536.444,905,183.560.944%

    63900693005840021720001543100638.84691024072000S1400022,534,726.5816,101,190.143.098%

    62300705004750022720001615100669.24909904072000S2600056,134,853.7033,600,127.126.466%

    60400712004550023714001686500699.65126960071400BASE8760519,669,760.00463,534,906.3089.198%

    57500707004520024712001757700730.05343408071200100.00%

    Fvrier57200697004620025711001828800760.45559552071100

    55100685004870026711001899900790.85775696071100

    53600669005380027711001971000821.35991840071100

    54200661005310028710002042000851.76207680071000

    55200687004250029710002113000882.16423520071000

    56200725004100030708002183800912.56638752070800

    62700693004030031707002254500942.96853680070700

    67100650004100032705002325000973.37068000070500

    691006470043000336990023949001003.87280496069900

    693006300047100346990024648001034.27492992069900

    705006170047700356980025346001064.67705184069800

    712006700042900366970026043001095.07917072069700

    707006840041300376950026738001125.48128352069500

    697006810040700386940027432001155.88339328069400

    685006880041000396930028125001186.38550000069300

    669007110042700406930028818001216.78760672069300

    661006830046300416930029511001247.18971344069300

    687006710047800426930030204001277.59182016069300

    725006590041900436910030895001307.99392080069100

    693006360040700446910031586001338.39602144069100

    650006190040000456890032275001368.89811600068900

    647006270040100466880032963001399.210020752068800

    630006770041000476880033651001429.610229904068800

    629006850044000486870034338001460.010438752068700

    Mars517006390043400496870035025001490.410647600068700

    508006190040600506860035711001520.810856144068600

    505006000039200516850036396001551.311064384068500

    515005990038000526850037081001581.711272624068500

    534006530038300536840037765001612.111480560068400

    567006770040400546830038448001642.511688192068300

    617006790043900556820039130001672.911895520068200

    670006930042400566820039812001703.312102848068200

    684006980042700576820040494001733.812310176068200

    681006860041100586810041175001764.212517200068100

    688006760040800596800041855001794.612723920068000

    711006650041100606790042534001825.012930336067900

    683006440043500616790043213001855.413136752067900

    671006250048900626770043890001885.813342560067700

    659006250045600636770044567001916.313548368067700

    636006170048500646760045243001946.713753872067600

    619006110046800656750045918001977.113959072067500

    627006150047000666730046591002007.514163664067300

    677005990047500676710047262002037.914367648067100

    685005740049000686710047933002068.314571632067100

    639005480052900696700048603002098.814775312067000

    619006120053200706690049272002129.214978688066900

    600006370056700716690049941002159.615182064066900

    584006380054500726670050608002190.015384832066700

    Avril475006490054000736650051273002220.415586992066500

    455006600053800746650051938002250.815789152066500

    452006520055000756650052603002281.315991312066500

    462006360057000766650053268002311.716193472066500

    487006200059400776650053933002342.116395632066500

    538006080055200786630054596002372.516597184066300

    599005920053900796620055258002402.916798432066200

    653005910052900806610055919002433.316999376066100

    677005940053700816600056579002463.817200016066000

    679005820054600826590057238002494.217400352065900

    693005610057100836580057896002524.617600384065800

    698005560061000846570058553002555.017800112065700

    6860051800856550059208002585.417999232065500

    6760054800866530059861002615.818197744065300

    6650061200876530060514002646.318396256065300

    6440064000886520061166002676.718594464065200

    6250064600896500061816002707.118792064065000

    6250066500906490062465002737.518989360064900

    6170067500916490063114002767.919186656064900

    6110065500926490063763002798.319383952064900

    6150064300936470064410002828.819580640064700

    5990063400946460065056002859.219777024064600

    5740061300956460065702002889.619973408064600

    5310059600966450066347002920.020169488064500

    Mai4250058200976450066992002950.420365568064500

    4100057700986440067636002980.820561344064400

    4030055800996430068279003011.320756816064300

    41000541001006400068919003041.720951376064000

    43000526001016400069559003072.121145936064000

    47100515001026390070198003102.521340192063900

    54800521001036390070837003132.921534448063900

    61200578001046380071475003163.321728400063800

    63700603001056370072112003193.821922048063700

    63800610001066370072749003224.222115696063700

    64900619001076370073386003254.622309344063700

    66000633001086360074022003285.022502688063600

    65200611001096360074658003315.422696032063600

    63600601001106360075294003345.822889376063600

    62000587001116340075928003376.323082112063400

    60800569001126330076561003406.723274544063300

    59200556001136320077193003437.123466672063200

    59100549001146300077823003467.523658192063000

    59400544001156300078453003497.923849712063000

    58200526001166290079082003528.324040928062900

    56100503001176270079709003558.824231536062700

    55600497001186270080336003589.224422144062700

    51800474001196250080961003619.624612144062500

    47700514001206250081586003650.024802144062500

    Juin42900574001216250082211003680.424992144062500

    41300593001226230082834003710.825181536062300

    40700603001236230083457003741.325370928062300

    41000621001246210084078003771.725559712062100

    42700623001256200084698003802.125748192062000

    46300615001266200085318003832.525936672062000

    54800601001276200085938003862.926125152062000

    61200590001286190086557003893.326313328061900

    64000572001296190087176003923.826501504061900

    64600557001306190087795003954.226689680061900

    66500553001316190088414003984.626877856061900

    67500549001326170089031004015.027065424061700

    65500542001336170089648004045.427252992061700

    64300529001346150090263004075.827439952061500

    63400502001356150090878004106.327626912061500

    61300469001366140091492004136.727813568061400

    59600570001376140092106004167.128000224061400

    58200614001386130092719004197.528186576061300

    57700636001396120093331004227.928372624061200

    55800640001406120093943004258.328558672061200

    54100649001416120094555004288.828744720061200

    52600657001426110095166004319.228930464061100

    51500645001436110095777004349.629116208061100

    47800632001446100096387004380.029301648061000

    Juillet41900620001456100096997004410.429487088061000

    40700606001466080097605004440.829671920060800

    40000588001476060098211004471.329856144060600

    40100584001486040098815004501.730039760060400

    41000590001496030099418004532.130223072060300

    440006140015060300100021004562.530406384060300

    521005890015160200100623004592.930589392060200

    578005420015260100101224004623.330772096060100

    603005020015360100101825004653.830954800060100

    610006010015460100102426004684.231137504060100

    619006730015560000103026004714.631319904060000

    633006820015659900103625004745.031502000059900

    611006820015759900104224004775.431684096059900

    601006880015859600104820004805.831865280059600

    587006890015959400105414004836.332045856059400

    569006690016059400106008004866.732226432059400

    556006490016159300106601004897.132406704059300

    549006370016259200107193004927.532586672059200

    544006250016359200107785004957.932766640059200

    526006020016459100108376004988.332946304059100

    503006120016559000108966005018.833125664059000

    497006670016659000109556005049.233305024059000

    474006650016758900110145005079.633484080058900

    434006190016858800110733005110.033662832058800

    Aout406005920016958700111320005140.433841280058700

    392005690017058400111904005170.834018816058400

    380006370017158400112488005201.334196352058400

    383006930017258200113070005231.734373280058200

    404007110017358200113652005262.134550208058200

    439007200017457800114230005292.534725920057800

    514007230017557700114807005322.934901328057700

    574007340017657500115382005353.335076128057500

    593007330017757400115956005383.835250624057400

    603007200017857400116530005414.235425120057400

    621007140017957200117102005444.635599008057200

    623007080018057200117674005475.035772896057200

    615007280018157100118245005505.435946480057100

    601007390018257000118815005535.836119760057000

    590007300018357000119385005566.336293040057000

    572007100018456900119954005596.736466016056900

    557006630018556900120523005627.136638992056900

    553006460018656700121090005657.536811360056700

    549006300018756700121657005687.936983728056700

    542006530018856200122219005718.337154576056200

    529007230018956100122780005748.837325120056100

    502007350019055800123338005779.237494752055800

    469007360019155700123895005809.637664080055700

    424007390019255600124451005840.037833104055600

    Septembre427007580019355600125007005870.438002128055600

    411007440019455400125561005900.838170544055400

    408007340019555300126114005931.338338656055300

    411007290019655200126666005961.738506464055200

    435007290019755200127218005992.138674272055200

    489007460019855100127769006022.538841776055100

    570007550019955000128319006052.939008976055000

    614007470020054900128868006083.339175872054900

    636007240020154900129417006113.839342768054900

    640006800020254800129965006144.239509360054800

    649006650020354800130513006174.639675952054800

    657006450020454600131059006205.039841936054600

    6450020554500131604006235.440007616054500

    6320020654400132148006265.840172992054400

    6200020754200132690006296.340337760054200

    6060020854200133232006326.740502528054200

    5880020954200133774006357.140667296054200

    5840021054100134315006387.540831760054100

    5900021154000134855006417.940995920054000

    6140021253900135394006448.341159776053900

    5890021353800135932006478.841323328053800

    5420021453800136470006509.241486880053800

    5020021553700137007006539.641650128053700

    4560021653600137543006570.041813072053600

    Octobre4850021753400138077006600.441975408053400

    4680021853200138609006630.842137136053200

    4700021953100139140006661.342298560053100

    4750022052900139669006691.742459376052900

    4900022152900140198006722.142620192052900

    5290022252900140727006752.542781008052900

    6010022352600141253006782.942940912052600

    6730022452600141779006813.343100816052600

    6820022552200142301006843.843259504052200

    6820022652100142822006874.243417888052100

    6880022751900143341006904.643575664051900

    6890022851800143859006935.043733136051800

    6690022951700144376006965.443890304051700

    6490023051500144891006995.844046864051500

    6370023151500145406007026.344203424051500

    6250023251400145920007056.744359680051400

    6020023350900146429007087.144514416050900

    6120023450800146937007117.544668848050800

    6670023550800147445007147.944823280050800

    6650023650500147950007178.344976800050500

    6190023750300148453007208.845129712050300

    5920023850200148955007239.245282320050200

    5690023950200149457007269.645434928050200

    5320024049900149956007300.045586624049900

    Novembre5670024149700150453007330.445737712049700

    5450024249000150943007360.845886672049000

    5400024348900151432007391.346035328048900

    5380024448700151919007421.746183376048700

    5500024548500152404007452.146330816048500

    5700024647800152882007482.546476128047800

    6370024747700153359007512.946621136047700

    6930024847500153834007543.346765536047500

    7110024947500154309007573.846909936047500

    7200025047400154783007604.247054032047400

    7230025147100155254007634.647197216047100

    7340025247000155724007665.047340096047000

    7330025346900156193007695.447482672046900

    7200025446800156661007725.847624944046800

    7140025546300157124007756.347765696046300

    7080025646200157586007786.747906144046200

    7280025745600158042007817.148044768045600

    7390025845500158497007847.548183088045500

    7300025945200158949007877.948320496045200

    7100026044000159389007908.348454256044000

    6630026143900159828007938.848587712043900

    6460026243500160263007969.248719952043500

    6300026343400160697007999.648851888043400

    5940026443000161127008030.048982608043000

    Dcembre5520026542900161556008060.449113024042900

    5390026642700161983008090.849242832042700

    5290026742700162410008121.349372640042700

    5370026842500162835008151.749501840042500

    5460026942400163259008182.149630736042400

    5710027041900163678008212.549758112041900

    6530027141300164091008242.949883664041300

    7230027241100164502008273.350008608041100

    7350027341100164913008303.850133552041100

    7360027441000165323008334.250258192041000

    7390027541000165733008364.650382832041000

    7580027641000166143008395.050507472041000

    7440027741000166553008425.450632112041000

    7340027840800166961008455.850756144040800

    7290027940700167368008486.350879872040700

    7290028040700167775008516.751003600040700

    7460028140600168181008547.151127024040600

    7550028240400168585008577.551249840040400

    7470028340300168988008607.951372352040300

    7240028440100169389008638.351494256040100

    6800028540000169789008668.851615856040000

    6650028639200170181008699.251735024039200

    6450028738300170564008729.651851456038300

    6100028838000170944008760.051966976038000

    1709440017094400

    3418880034188800

    0.8448936912

    0.8213469656

    0.8083343015

    0.8182487123

    0.8377677085

    0.8749467488

    0.9771891096

    1.0692072344

    1.0905851826

    1.0908950079

    1.0998799427

    1.1197087642

    1.101119244

    1.0846985012

    1.0685875837

    1.0534061423

    1.0592928237

    1.0902753573

    1.1119631308

    1.0825297239

    1.0134386739

    0.9914410751

    0.9632469695

    0.9269974052

    Hiver

    0.7882661079

    0.7618648507

    0.7461498167

    0.7505500262

    0.7800942902

    0.8435830278

    0.995075956

    1.1088528025

    1.1541121006

    1.1685699319

    1.1974855946

    1.21382923

    1.1823991619

    1.1597695128

    1.1383970665

    1.1025667889

    1.0742797276

    1.0585646936

    1.0497642745

    1.0221058146

    0.9887899424

    0.958617077

    0.9165007858

    0.8398114196

    Et

    0.7863872263

    0.7568760059

    0.752102132

    0.7629518454

    0.7994068823

    0.8796947614

    1.0059854252

    1.1075387425

    1.1422578254

    1.1452957451

    1.1626552865

    1.1735049999

    1.1509375961

    1.1253322725

    1.1031988572

    1.0775935336

    1.0446104049

    1.0467803476

    1.0710837055

    1.0728196597

    1.0346286686

    0.9933997577

    0.9387172022

    0.8662411168

    Intermdiaire

    0

    0

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    0

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    0

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    0

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    0

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    0

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    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Puissance MW

    Monotone lectrique annuelleune journe type par mois

    Belgique

    121185611751113306113781082810921100691114910998113741155112135

    1311709116701113011106106781077099521100410691112821135011899

    1411695116221108611080106931075098211080010717112891137711974

    1511590115581103110978105411073797111080510632112461130911888

    1611512114571090310862104781072496601065910531111721122011766

    1711435112861070710673103261058895591055310409110631134511919

    1812012112441078310538101471047194391040410259110161220312870

    191235411779109531035199261012292581019910030110671238812991

    201192211778113301008196419771891697719818113581182212420

    2111418113581097610032941394858596957410268109851129911912

    22

    231111311051104951055210037951090259670

    24

  • Specific hour constraints for each databaseStep3: Allow competition to fulfil those needs Duplicating technologies database for competition in each supply segment

    Issue1: flexibility for fossil plants - supplying power or energy

  • Result: Thermal production Effective use of residual peaking plantsIssue1: flexibility for fossil plants - supplying power or energy

    Graph1

    88.810.8815.112.176.980

    99.836.0925.271.286.190

    73.736.125.281.2831.410

    44.837.180070.090

    26.726.0911.37085.830

    09.814.34074.1674.05

    08.810079.8109.74

    COA STEAM

    COA FB_R

    OIL

    GAS STEAM

    GAS CC

    COA FB_N

    PJ

    FOSSIL PLANTS PRODUCTIONFrance 2000-2030

    Answer Export

    CaseParameterTechnology2000200520102015202020252030

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCECOA22S10000040.9842.8

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCECOA22S20000033.0766.94

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEFB0RP2.72.72.682.592.592.72.7

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEFB0RS12.6102.332.412.415.025.02

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEFB0RS21.073.311.011.091.012.011.01

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEFUL0RP14.4523.3522.43004.010

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEFUL0RPF00005.8800

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEFUL0RS101.92005.4900

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEFUL0RX0.6602.85000.330

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS10P6.986.196.196.19000

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS11P004.4531.1229.9929.9929.99

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS11S100022.0735.0722.0722.07

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS11S20020.7710.7120.7720.7720.77

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS12P000001.336.97

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS2RP1.450.7400000

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS2RPF0.58000000

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS2RS100.400000

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS2RS2001.140000

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS2RX0.140.140.140000

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEHYD2RP8.994.414.482.1110.546.225.74

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEHYD2RPF4.575.575.996.260.556.596.77

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEHYD2RS102.8504.211.470.050

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEHYD2RX00.733.10.981.010.711.06

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCELCFB0R4.50.080.081.090.080.080.08

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCELCHYD1R238.41238.41238.41238.41238.41238.41238.41

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCELCNUC1R1417.351561.021514.951492.931384.19876.78302.94

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCELCNUC2100143.22254.05320.62758.811349.28

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCELCSTE0R0013.172.33000

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCELCWND12000090.41205.7236.34

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCELCWND1R0.110.110.080000

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCENUC1RS264.2635.4668.8378.5872.8546.1515.94

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCESTE0RS150.6252.459.5936.0121.9500

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCESTE0RS238.1847.430.976.494.7700

    2000200520102015202020252030

    COA STEAM88.899.8373.7344.8326.720071.65%72.00%53.51%36.72%20.55%0.00%0.00%

    COA FB_R10.886.096.17.186.099.818.818.78%4.39%4.43%5.88%4.68%6.04%4.44%

    OIL15.1125.2725.28011.374.34012.19%18.22%18.35%0.00%8.75%2.67%0.00%

    GAS STEAM2.171.281.2800001.75%0.92%0.93%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

    GAS CC6.986.1931.4170.0985.8374.1679.85.63%4.46%22.79%57.40%66.02%45.68%40.23%

    COA FB_N0000074.05109.740.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%45.61%55.33%

    123.94138.66137.8122.1130.01162.36198.35%

    123.94138.66137.8122.1130.01162.36198.35COA80.43%76.39%57.93%42.60%25.24%51.65%59.77%

    123.94138.66137.8122.1130.01162.36198.35OIL12.19%18.22%18.35%0.00%8.75%2.67%0.00%

    123.94138.66137.8122.1130.01162.36198.35GAS7.38%5.39%23.72%57.40%66.02%45.68%40.23%

    123.94138.66137.8122.1130.01162.36198.35

    123.94138.66137.8122.1130.01162.36198.35

    123.94138.66137.8122.1130.01162.36198.35

    Answer Export

    COA STEAM

    COA FB_R

    OIL

    GAS STEAM

    GAS CC

    COA FB_N

    PJ

    FOSSIL PLANTS PRODUCTIONFrance 2000-2030

  • Result: Additional informationNormal, strong and extreme peak productionIssue1: flexibility for fossil plants - supplying power or energy

    Graph2

    13.562.715.112.176.98

    10.712.723.350.886.19

    13.572.6825.280.146.19

    9.352.59006.19

    12.12.595.8800

    13.522.74.3400

    13.572.7000

    STOR

    COA FB_R

    OIL

    GAS STEAM

    GAS CC

    PJ

    ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION FOR PEAKFrance 2000-2030

    Graph1

    13.562.715.112.176.9800

    10.712.723.350.886.1900

    13.572.6825.280.146.194.450

    9.352.59006.1931.120

    12.12.595.880029.990

    13.522.74.340029.991.33

    13.572.700029.996.97

    STOR

    COA FB_R

    OIL

    GAS STEAM

    GAS CC

    GAS CC10

    GAS CC20

    PJ

    ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION FOR PEAKFrance 2000-2030

    Answer Export

    CaseParameterTechnology2000200520102015202020252030

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCECOA22S10000040.9842.8

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCECOA22S20000033.0766.94

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEFB0RP2.72.72.682.592.592.72.7

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEFB0RS12.6102.332.412.415.025.02

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEFB0RS21.073.311.011.091.012.011.01

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEFUL0RP14.4523.3522.43004.010

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEFUL0RPF00005.8800

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEFUL0RS101.92005.4900

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEFUL0RX0.6602.85000.330

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS10P6.986.196.196.19000

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS11P004.4531.1229.9929.9929.99

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS11S100022.0735.0722.0722.07

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS11S20020.7710.7120.7720.7720.77

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS12P000001.336.97

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS2RP1.450.7400000

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS2RPF0.58000000

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS2RS100.400000

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS2RS2001.140000

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS2RX0.140.140.140000

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEHYD2RP8.994.414.482.1110.546.225.74

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEHYD2RPF4.575.575.996.260.556.596.77

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEHYD2RS102.8504.211.470.050

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEHYD2RX00.733.10.981.010.711.06

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCELCFB0R4.50.080.081.090.080.080.08

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCELCHYD1R238.41238.41238.41238.41238.41238.41238.41

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCELCNUC1R1417.351561.021514.951492.931384.19876.78302.94

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCELCNUC2100143.22254.05320.62758.811349.28

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCELCSTE0R0013.172.33000

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCELCWND12000090.41205.7236.34

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCELCWND1R0.110.110.080000

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCENUC1RS264.2635.4668.8378.5872.8546.1515.94

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCESTE0RS150.6252.459.5936.0121.9500

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCESTE0RS238.1847.430.976.494.7700

    2000200520102015202020252030

    COA STEAM88.899.8373.7344.8326.720071.65%72.00%53.51%36.72%20.55%0.00%0.00%

    COA FB_R10.886.096.17.186.099.818.818.78%4.39%4.43%5.88%4.68%6.04%4.44%

    OIL15.1125.2725.28011.374.34012.19%18.22%18.35%0.00%8.75%2.67%0.00%

    GAS STEAM2.171.281.2800001.75%0.92%0.93%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

    GAS CC6.986.1931.4170.0985.8374.1679.85.63%4.46%22.79%57.40%66.02%45.68%40.23%

    COA FB_N0000074.05109.740.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%45.61%55.33%

    123.94138.66137.8122.1130.01162.36198.35%

    123.94138.66137.8122.1130.01162.36198.35COA80.43%76.39%57.93%42.60%25.24%51.65%59.77%

    123.94138.66137.8122.1130.01162.36198.35OIL12.19%18.22%18.35%0.00%8.75%2.67%0.00%

    123.94138.66137.8122.1130.01162.36198.35GAS7.38%5.39%23.72%57.40%66.02%45.68%40.23%

    123.94138.66137.8122.1130.01162.36198.35

    123.94138.66137.8122.1130.01162.36198.35

    123.94138.66137.8122.1130.01162.36198.35

    2000200520102015202020252030

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEFB0RP2.72.72.682.592.592.72.7

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEFUL0RP14.4523.3522.43004.010

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEFUL0RPF00005.8800

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEFUL0RX0.6602.85000.330

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS10P6.986.196.196.19000

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS11P004.4531.1229.9929.9929.99

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS12P000001.336.97

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS2RP1.450.7400000

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS2RPF0.58000000

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEGAS2RX0.140.140.140000

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEHYD2RP8.994.414.482.1110.546.225.74

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEHYD2RPF4.575.575.996.260.556.596.77

    BASEOUTPUT.ELCEHYD2RX00.733.10.981.010.711.06

    2000200520102015202020252030

    STOR13.5610.7113.579.3512.113.5213.57

    COA FB_R2.72.72.682.592.592.72.7

    OIL15.1123.3525.2805.884.340

    GAS STEAM2.170.880.140000

    GAS CC6.986.196.196.19000

    GAS CC10004.4531.1229.9929.9929.99

    GAS CC20000001.336.97

    Answer Export

    COA STEAM

    COA FB_R

    OIL

    GAS STEAM

    GAS CC

    COA FB_N

    PJ

    FOSSIL PLANTS PRODUCTIONFrance 2000-2030

  • ISSUE2: ALTERNATIVE NUCLEAR FUTURESCENARIO SIMULATION

  • Issue2: alter