market insights
TRANSCRIPT
STRONGER
together
Strategies for success
2015 Partner Conference
Market InsightsRalph Acampora, CMT
Altaira Wealth Management
2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together
10-Year Bond Yields—Remain in a firm downtrend; making a series of lower low and lower highs; would require a close above 3.5% to reverse the secular downtrend.
2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together4
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
'58 '63 '68 '73 '78 '83 '88 '93 '98 '03 '08 '13
Interest Rates and Inflation
Source: Federal Reserve, BLS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Real 10-year Treasury yields are calculated as the daily Treasury yield less year-over-year core CPI inflation for that month except for March 2015, where real yields are calculated by subtracting out February 2015 year-over-year core inflation. All returns above reflect annualized total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends. Corporate bond returns are based on a composite index of investment grade bond performance. Data are as of March 31, 2015.
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Nominal and Real 10-year Treasury Yields
Mar. 31, 2015: 0.25%
Sep. 30, 1981: 15.84%
Mar. 31, 2015: 1.94%
Nominal 10-year Treasury Yield
Real 10-year Treasury Yield
Average(1958 – 2015 YTD) 3/31/15
Nominal Yields 6.24% 1.94%Real Yields 2.48% 0.25%Inflation 3.79% 1.69%
Rising Rate Corp. Bonds S&P 500 1958-1981 3.0% 8.6% Ann. Inflation 5.0% 5.0% Ann. Real Return -2.0% 3.5%
Falling Rate Corp. Bonds S&P 500 1982-2014 9.6% 11.7% Ann. Inflation 3.0% 3.0% Ann. Real Return 6.6% 8.6%
Fix
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Interest Rates
2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together
U.S. Inflation (Annual CPI)
SPX Index—Remains in a secular uptrend after breaking topside a 13-year bear market.
DJIA vs DJTA—Negative divergence—Industrials trending higher while Transports have reversed an uptrend.
2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together
U.S. Unemployment Trends
XLK—Pullback towards an uptrend support line underway; remains in a major uptrend.
XLU—Major trend has turned lower after the recent uptrend violation; next support at $40.
2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together
What does a secular bull really look like?
2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together
2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together
Thank you