mg stl gen pres 032109
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
1/75
Housing Forecast
Market Research UpdateSt. Louis RegionMarch 2009
Joe Zanola
MarketGraphics St. Louis Region
9315 Manchester Road
St. Louis, MO 63119
(314) 918-7200
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
2/75
National MarketGraphics Research Markets
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
3/75
Review of Housing Market Vibrancy
Single-Family Housing Permits (not rentals) as Percent of Population
(To obtain to .75% in a mature, larger city is Excellent)
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
United
State
s
Greater
Nashville
12Countie
s
St.L
ouisRe
gion1
0Co
untie
s
Indian
apolis9Co
untie
s
Gree
nsbo
roTriad5
Countie
s
Knoxville
6Countie
s
MemphisMe
tro5Co
untie
s
Twin
Citie
sMetr
o13Co
untie
s
Kansas
City
9Countie
s
North
Alab
ama4Co
untie
s
Centr
alVir
ginia
15Counties
/Citie
s
Metro
Louis
ville
8Countie
s
Coastal
Georgia
9Co
untie
s
Southe
astM
ichiga
n15Co
untie
s
Omaha/
Linc
oln8Co
untie
s
Centr
alKa
nsas
10Countie
s
Coastal
AL/
FLP
anha
ndle
8Counties
Metro
Des
Moines
5Co
untie
s
Birming
hamMe
tro5C
ounties
Charles
ton,SC4Co
untie
s
Centr
alMO
6Counties
Southw
estM
O5Co
untie
s
Chattan
ooga
9Countie
s
Lexin
gton
12Countie
s
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
o
f
P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
!"#$%& %&"'!&$
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
4/75
Flood
Plain
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
5/75
New Home Subdivisions (Started and Projected to Start)
Report Date
Started & Not
Started Subdivision
Count
Started
Subdivision
Count
Developed
Lot
Inventory
Average No. of
Lots Per Started
Subdivision
Counted
Inventory
of Homes
Homes Under
Construction
Homes
Finished Not
Occupied
Homes
Estimated
Not Sold
Mar-1998 816 761 16,063 21.11 2,809 1,876 933 917
Jul-1998 758 686 15,878 23.15 2,804 1,984 820 872
Nov-1998 787 708 16,054 22.68 3,144 2,384 760 813
Mar-1999 805 715 17,156 23.99 3,051 2,205 846 948
Jul-1999 833 740 17,049 23.04 3,638 2,740 898 985
Nov-1999 761 666 16,306 24.48 3,516 2,737 779 880
Mar-2000 709 655 16,486 25.17 3,551 2,649 902 968
Jul-2000 719 646 15,667 24.25 3,696 2,684 1,012 1,119
Nov-2000 718 649 15,787 24.33 3,163 2,251 912 912
Mar-2001 719 645 15,512 24.05 2,935 1,990 945 928Jul-2001 774 674 14,907 22.12 3,749 2,853 896 937
Nov-2001 782 692 14,673 21.20 3,685 2,815 870 978
Mar-2002 775 682 14,474 21.22 3,284 2,336 948 924
Jul-2002 768 661 13,806 20.89 3,612 2,680 932 931
Nov-2002 788 673 14,335 21.30 3,891 2,946 945 976
Mar-2003 813 675 14,222 21.07 4,026 2,955 1,071 1,168
Jul-2003 844 692 14,224 20.55 4,427 3,344 1,083 1,120
Nov-2003 896 734 16,972 23.12 4,940 3,709 1,231 1,324
Mar-2004 980 820 17,189 20.96 5,196 3,634 1,562 1,743
Jul-2004 1,040 869 18,309 21.07 5,822 4,649 1,173 1,293
Nov-2004 1,106 928 19,857 21.40 6,594 5,336 1,258 1,540Mar-2005 1,132 932 19,892 21.34 6,309 4,613 1,696 1,898
Jul-2005 1,172 968 21,000 21.69 7,394 5,659 1,735 2,016
Nov-2005 1,175 974 22,548 23.15 7,700 5,871 1,829 1,995
Mar-2006 1,198 1,007 23,883 23.72 8,381 6,301 2,080 2,444
Jul-2006 1,205 991 25,256 25.49 8,825 6,607 2,218 2,592
Nov-2006 1,250 1,023 27,784 27.16 8,871 6,464 2,407 2,777
Mar-2007 1,535 1,252 33,579 26.82 8,913 6,104 2,809 3,116
Jul-2007 1,582 1,295 35,336 27.29 9,178 6,291 2,887 2,978
Nov-2007 1,597 1,303 34,810 26.72 9,064 6,176 2,888 3,143
Mar-2008 1,615 1,347 36,350 26.99 8,271 5,323 2,948 3,043Jul-2008 1,595 1,329 35,484 26.70 7,986 4,952 3,034 2,962
Nov-2008 1,556 1,310 35,751 27.29 6,910 3,593 3,317 3,175
Mar-2009 1,533 1,291 34,998 27.11 5,312 2,394 2,918 2,796
Model Franklin County 14 St. Charles County 256
Home Jefferson County 63 St. Clair County 58
Count: Lincoln County 31 St. Louis City 44
Madison County 19 St. Louis County 113
Monroe County 8 Warren County 10
Total Models or Displays 616
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
6/75
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
7/75
St. Louis, MO 10 County MarketGraphics Region November 2003
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Home/Lot
Count
Nov0
0
M
ar01Ju
l01
Nov01
M
ar02Jul0
2
Nov02
M
ar03Jul0
3
Nov03
M
ar04Jul0
4
Nov0
4
M
ar05Jul0
5
Nov05
M
ar06
July
06
Nov0
6
M
ar07
July
07
Novem
ber07
March0
8
July
08
Novem
ber08
March0
9
Under ConstructionStarts
Closings
Finished Unoccupied
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
8/75
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Home/LotCoun
Nov0
0
M
ar01Ju
l01
Nov01
M
ar02Jul0
2
Nov02
M
ar03Jul0
3
Nov03
M
ar04Jul0
4
Nov0
4
M
ar05Jul0
5
Nov05
M
ar06
July
06
Nov0
6
M
ar07
July
07
Novem
ber07
March0
8
July
08
Novem
ber08
March0
9
Under ConstructionStarts
Closings
Finished Unoccupied
St. Louis, MO 10 County MarketGraphics Region November 2004
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
9/75
St. Louis, MO 10 County MarketGraphics Region November 2005
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Home/LotCoun
Nov0
0
Mar
01Jul0
1
Nov01
Mar
02Ju
l02
Nov02
Mar
03Ju
l03
Nov03
Mar
04Ju
l04
Nov0
4
Mar
05Jul0
5
Nov05
Mar
06
July
06
Nov0
6
Mar
07
July
07
Novem
ber07
March
08
July
08
Novem
ber08
March
09
Under Construction
Starts
Closings
Finished Unoccupied
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
10/75
St. Louis, MO 10 County MarketGraphics Region November 2006
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Home/Lo
tCoun
Nov0
0
Mar
01Ju
l01
Nov01
Mar
02Jul0
2
Nov02
Mar
03Jul0
3
Nov03
Mar
04Jul0
4
Nov0
4
Mar
05Jul0
5
Nov05
Mar
06
July
06
Nov0
6
Mar
07
July
07
Novembe
r07
M
arch
08
July
08
Novembe
r08
M
arch
09
Under Construction
Starts
Closings
Finished Unoccupied
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
11/75
St. Louis, MO 10 County MarketGraphics Region November 2007
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Home/Lo
tCoun
Nov0
0
Mar
01Ju
l01
Nov01
Mar
02Jul0
2
Nov02
Mar
03Jul0
3
Nov03
Mar
04Jul0
4
Nov0
4
Mar
05Jul0
5
Nov05
Mar
06
July
06
Nov0
6
Mar
07
July
07
Novembe
r07
M
arch
08
July
08
Novembe
r08
M
arch
09
Under Construction
Starts
Closings
Finished Unoccupied
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
12/75
St. Louis, MO 10 County MarketGraphics Region March 2009
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Home/LotCoun
Nov0
0
Mar
01Jul0
1
Nov01
Mar
02Ju
l02
Nov02
Mar
03Ju
l03
Nov03
Mar
04Ju
l04
Nov0
4
Mar
05Jul0
5
Nov05
Mar
06
July
06
Nov0
6
Mar
07
July
07
Novemb
er07
March
08
July
08
Novemb
er08
March
09
Under Construction
Starts
Closings
Finished Unoccupied
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
13/75
0
-43
-776
-155
-248
-673 537 -1
76 822728 1
901075
1631 -2
91101
160
61270
137
32528
579
5175
7-526
1540
-866
267
-753
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Home
/LotCo
Nov0
0
Mar
01Ju
l01
Nov01
Mar
02Ju
l02
Nov02
Mar
03Ju
l03
Nov03
Mar
04Jul0
4
Nov0
4
Mar
05Ju
l05
Nov05
Mar
06
July
06
Nov0
6
Mar
07
July
07
Novemb
er07
March
08
July
08
Novemb
er08
March
09
Developed Lots
Change in Developed Lots
St. Louis, MO 10 County MarketGraphics Region March 2009
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
14/75
Previous Starts and Housing Forecast
1
0
6
0
9
1
1
2
2
3
1
0
2
5
3
8
4
0
9
7
0
98
7
3
5
8
1
0
0
7
0
1
0
7
0
6
1
2
6
2
6 9
9
6
6
1
0
5
9
5
9
9
8
4
1
0
7
8
8
1
1
4
8
5
1
0
2
0
3
1
1
1
1
6
1
1
8
8
6
1
2
0
9
1
1
39
9
9
1
4
87
9
1
1
0
0
4
9
9
8
3
52
8
4
4
2
8
6
1
4
2
9
4
5
0
8
1
5
0
3
4
8
6
0
1
6
2
0
5
0
9
3
1
6
9
8
53
7
8
1
7
9
3
5
2
0
5
1
7
3
5
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
15/75
Forecast of Housing Starts by CountyCounty 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
SL City 2,370 1,004 805 489 504 530 571 598 632 611
SL County 2,271 1,662 2,129 564 599 630 680 712 750 727
Jefferson 1,443 1,199 1,040 754 794 835 900 943 996 964
St. Charles 3,683 3,022 2,949 1,486 1,623 1,707 1,840 1,928 2,037 1,971
St. Clair 1,710 1,464 1,028 598 640 673 726 760 803 778
Madison 1,204 870 738 589 657 691 745 780 823 797
Franklin 725 551 375 291 336 113 122 128 136 131
Warren 503 383 342 112 108 336 361 379 400 388
Lincoln 658 602 348 275 319 143 154 161 171 165
Monroe 312 246 229 126 136 354 381 400 422 409
Total 14,879 11,004 9,983 5,284 5,715 6,010 6,480 6,790 7,170 6,940
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
16/75
How Can A MarketGraphicsForecast Help You Succeed?
The Absolute Necessity to Outperform the Market Average
Your Goals by:
1. DemographicsHomebuyers First!
2. Communities and Home Sites
3. New Homes
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
17/75
How Can A MarketGraphicsForecast Help You Succeed?
The Absolute Necessity to Outperform the Market Average
DemographicsHomebuyers First!
Employment Trends Geographic Trends Household Trends Homebuyer Trends
What Needs to Change?
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
18/75
Historical Permits vs. Interest Rates vs. Employment Comparison
St. Louis Region 10-CountyEmployment by 12-Month Periods
1,200,000
1,225,000
1,250,000
1,275,000
1,300,000
1,325,000
1,350,000
Oct.05
Dec.05
Feb.06
Apr.06
Jun.06
Aug.06
Oct.06
Dec.06
Feb.07
Apr.07
Jun.07
Aug.07
Oct.07
Dec.07
Feb.08
Apr.08
Jun.08
Aug.08
Oct.08
E
mp
l
o
y
m
e
n
t
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
19/75
St. Louis MarketGraphics 10 County AreaPopulation by Age Trends
14.67%2.07%56,7391.85%49,4801.62%41,274Age 85 and over
0.50%4.30%118,0584.40%117,4744.51%114,731Age 75 to 84
19.59%7.65%209,9046.57%175,5186.72%171,195Age 65 to 74
25.65%6.02%165,0944.92%131,3973.81%96,967Age 60 to 64
12.58%7.08%194,3456.46%172,6314.77%121,590Age 55 to 59
5.85%7.70%211,1697.47%199,4906.23%158,563Age 50 to 54
-8.40%7.15%196,2248.02%214,2177.34%186,872Age 45 to 49
-8.98%12.32
%338,00013.90%371,35016.61%422,901Age 35 to 44
4.57%12.75
%349,79512.52%334,51013.34%339,722Age 25 to 34
3.80%5.41%148,5085.36%143,0654.77%121,500Age 21 to 24
0.13%4.04%110,7134.14%110,5743.98%101,319Age 18 to 20
-2.94%4.23%116,0104.48%119,5214.51%114,779Age 15 to 17
-5.20%6.36%174,5346.89%184,0987.66%195,134Age 10 to 14
1.16%6.38%175,1026.48%173,0877.45%189,815Age 5 to 9
2.85%6.54%179,3486.53%174,3736.68%170,042Age 0 to 4
2.72%2,743,5432,670,7852,546,404Population by Age
Change2008-2013
ProjectionEstimateCensus
%%2013%2008%2000
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
20/75
St. Louis MarketGraphics 10 County AreaHousehold Trends
-7.77%1.17%8,7131.32%9,4471.64%10,9227 or more person household
-0.20%2.82%21,0712.95%21,1133.10%20,7246-person household
-0.05%8.43%62,9088.79%62,9379.38%62,6525-person household
1.73%19.91%148,60820.39%146,08721.04%140,4624-person household
4.30%24.45%182,47124.42%174,94823.87%159,3903-person household
6.88%43.22%322,60542.13%301,84540.97%273,5772-person household
4.19%746,376716,377667,727Family Households
2.73%0.03%1130.03%1100.04%1207 or more person household
-14.86%0.04%1260.04%1480.05%1586-person household
-12.44%0.11%3940.13%4500.17%5375-person household
-13.47%0.35%1,2270.42%1,4180.58%1,8924-person household
-9.53%1.30%4,5761.48%5,0581.76%5,6943-person household
-15.40%8.37%29,47510.21%34,84013.35%43,2382-person household
5.76%89.81%316,42387.68%299,19384.05%272,2031-person household
3.26%352,334341,217323,842Non-family Households
Change2008-2013
ProjectionEstimateCensus
%%2013%2008%2000
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
21/75
St. Louis MarketGraphics 10 County AreaIncome Trends
32.90%0.69%7,6030.54%5,7210.38%3,750$500,000 or more
31.00%1.50%16,4501.19%12,5570.82%8,120$250,000 to $499,999
34.20%5.63%61,8054.35%46,0563.12%30,945$150,000 to $249,999
23.91%14.00%153,86111.74%124,1687.94%78,816$100,000 to $149,999
8.22%13.53%148,60212.98%137,31111.13%110,465$75,000 to $99,999
1.44%20.10%220,83120.58%217,70421.01%208,493$50,000 to $74,999
-2.07%14.93%164,09015.84%167,55216.77%166,447$35,000 to $49,999
-5.68%10.01%109,93211.02%116,55712.75%126,562$25,000 to $34,999
-6.34%9.20%101,05810.20%107,90012.13%120,434$15,000 to $24,999
-6.22%10.42%114,47811.54%122,06813.95%138,422Less than $15,000
3.89%1,098,7101,057,594992,454Households by Household Income
Change2008-2013
ProjectionEstimateCensus
%%2013%2008%2000
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
22/75
2008 Estimated Average Household Income
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
23/75
2008 Estimated Average Length of Residence
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
24/75
2008 Estimated Average Owner Occupied Housing Value
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
25/75
2008 Top 10 PRIZM Segments St. Louis, MO 10 County AreaSegment Definitions
2.46%41 Sunset City Blues
2.46%30 Suburban Sprawl
2.60%18 Kids & Cul-de-Sacs
2.63%37 Mayberry-ville
2.68%20 Fast-Track Families
2.74%13 Upward Bound
2.75%39 Domestic Duos
2.79%61 City Roots
2.94%27 Middleburg Managers
3.42%54 Multi-Culti MosaicTop 10 PRIZM
Segments
Households
%2008
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
26/75
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
27/75
2008 Top 10 PRIZM Segments St. Louis, MO 10 County Area
39 Domestic DuosDomestic Duos represents a middle-class mix of mainly over 55 singles and married couplesliving in older suburban homes. With their high-school educations and fixed incomes,segment residents maintain an easy-going lifestyle. Residents like to socialize by goingbowling, seeing a play, meeting at the local fraternal order or going out to eat.
13 Upward BoundMore than any other segment, Upward Bound appears to be the home of those legendarySoccer Moms and Dads. In these small satellite cities, upper-class families boast dualincomes, college degrees and new split-levels and colonials. Residents of Upward Bound
tend to be kid-obsessed, with heavy purchases of computers, action figures, dolls, boardgames, bicycles and camping equipment.
20 Fast-Track FamiliesWith their upper-middle-class incomes, numerous children and spacious homes,Fast-Track Families are in their prime acquisition years. These middle-aged parents
have the disposable income and educated sensibility to want the best for theirchildren. They buy the latest technology with impunity: new computers, DVDplayers, home theater systems and video games. They take advantage of their rusticlocales by camping, boating and fishing.
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
28/75
2008 Top 10 PRIZM Segments St. Louis, MO 10 County Area
37 Mayberry-villeLike the old Andy Griffith show set in a quaint picturesque berg, Mayberry-ville harksback to an old-fashioned way of life. In these small towns, middle-class couples and familieslike to fish and hunt during the day, and stay home and watch TV at night. With lucrativeblue-collar jobs and moderately priced housing, residents use their discretionary cash to
purchase boats, campers, motorcycles and pickup trucks.
18 Kids & Cul-de-SacsUpscale, suburban, married couples with children-that's the skinny on Kids & Cul-de-Sacs, an enviable lifestyle of large families in recently built subdivisions. With a high rate
of Hispanic and Asian Americans, this segment is a refuge for college-educated, white-collar professionals with administrative jobs and upper-middle-class incomes. Their nexusof education, affluence and children translates into large outlays for child-centeredproducts and services.
30 Suburban Sprawl
Suburban Sprawl is an unusual American lifestyle: a collection of midscale, middle-agedsingles and couples living in the heart of suburbia. Typically members of the Baby Boomgeneration, they hold decent jobs, own older homes and condos, and pursue cocooningversions of the American Dream. Among their favorite activities are jogging on treadmills,playing trivia games and renting videos.
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
29/75
2008 Top 10 PRIZM Segments St. Louis, MO 10 County Area
41 Sunset City BluesScattered throughout the older neighborhoods of small cities, Sunset City Blues is asegment of lower-middle-class singles and couples who have retired or are getting closed toit. These empty-nesters tend to own their homes but have modest educations and incomes.They maintain a low-key lifestyle filled with newspapers and television by day, and family-
style restaurants at night.
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
30/75
How Can A MarketGraphicsForecast Help You Succeed?
The Absolute Necessity to Outperform the Market Average
Communities and Home Sites
Performing/Non Performing Communities Developed Lot Supply vs. Demand Changing Lot Supply
What Needs to Change?
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
31/75
Flood
Plain
DevelopedLot Supply
Total
12-Month
Demand
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
32/75
Flood
Plain
Started Subdivisionswith No Starts
by MG AreaNo Homes Started in
the Last 4 Months
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
33/75
How Can A MarketGraphicsForecast Help You Succeed?
The Absolute Necessity to Outperform the Market Average
New Homes
Pricing and Values
New Home Supply vs. Demand New Home Types Changing New Home Supply, Starts, Under Construction,
Finished and Unoccupied
What Needs to Change?
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
34/75
New Homes Dollar Volume Forecast and Average Price of Housing
Price Range Forecast of Starts for2009 % Based onStarts Avg. Price for $Extension Forecast of DollarVolume % Based onDollars
Under $175,000 1,105 19.33% $140,000 $154,650,300 10.44%
$175,000 to $225,000 1,615 28.25% $200,000 $322,910,809 21.80%
$225,000 to $275,000 1,384 24.22% $250,000 $346,029,287 23.36%
$275,000 to $325,000 813 14.23% $300,000 $243,924,732 16.47%
$325,000 to $425,000 406 7.11% $375,000 $152,436,280 10.29%
$425,000 to $625,000 228 3.98% $525,000 $119,523,145 8.07%$625,000 to $925,000 116 2.03% $775,000 $89,908,808 6.07%
Over $925,000 48 0.85% $1,075,000 $52,062,383 3.51%
Totals 5,715 100% $1,481,445,743 100%
(Total Dollar Volume / Total
Forecast of Starts) Forecast average price of new homes: $259,221
19.33%
28.25%
24.22%
14.23%
7.11%
3.98%
2.03%0.85%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Under
$175,000
$175,000 to
$225,000
$225,000 to
$275,000
$275,000 to
$325,000
$325,000 to
$425,000
$425,000 to
$625,000
$625,000 to
$925,000
Over
$925,000
Forecast of Starts
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
35/75
FloodPlain
Average Price of New
Homes by CountyBased on Closings
(i.e. People Moving In)
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
36/75
Market Share by CountySt. Louis Region (Based on permits issued)
County / City 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
St. Charles 33.02% 29.29% 24.75% 27.34% 29.54% 28.12% 36.90%St. Louis County 14.57% 14.09% 15.26% 15.04% 21.33% 10.67% 10.71%
St. Clair 9.52% 11.01% 11.49% 13.25% 10.30% 11.32% 10.12%Jefferson 13.08% 10.64% 9.70% 10.85% 10.42% 14.27% 10.12%
St. Louis City 2.91% 11.42% 15.93% 9.52% 8.06% 9.25% 10.71%Madison 11.24% 9.76% 8.09% 7.87% 7.39% 11.15% 4.76%Franklin 4.89% 4.39% 4.87% 4.99% 3.76% 5.51% 7.14%Lincoln 4.68% 4.11% 4.42% 5.44% 3.49% 5.20% 5.95%Warren 3.12% 3.04% 3.38% 3.46% 3.43% 2.12% 1.19%Monroe 2.96% 2.25% 2.10% 2.23% 2.29% 2.38% 2.38%
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Monroe
Warren
Lincoln
Franklin
Madison
St. Louis City
Jefferson
St. Clair
St. Louis County
St. Charles
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
37/75
Building Permit Summary
JAN THRU JAN THRU
2006 BUILDING PERMITS JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN TOT DEC TOT
ST. LOUIS CITY AREA 1 108 74 86 60 95 58 131 98 121 118 48 51 108 1048
ST. LOUIS COUNTY AREAS 2-8 83 61 131 108 145 94 67 76 674 59 80 77 83 1655
JEFFERSON COUNTY AREAS 9-11 79 122 137 124 104 118 97 110 84 84 73 62 79 1194
ST. CHARLES COUNTY AREAS 13-15B 227 239 313 299 349 289 296 289 181 159 214 154 227 3009
ST. CLAIR COUNTY AREAS 16A-16B 142 104 106 134 123 166 149 147 121 99 94 73 142 1458
MADISON COUNTY AREAS 17A-17D 50 67 76 72 85 85 64 81 85 80 62 59 50 866
FRANKLIN COUNTY AREAS 20-21 29 41 67 90 67 56 36 48 33 34 18 30 29 549
WARREN COUNTY AREAS 22-23 32 33 37 55 50 44 21 19 32 19 28 11 32 381LINCOLN COUNTY AREAS 24-25 56 45 61 63 56 61 51 55 56 47 33 15 56 599
MONROE COUNTY AREAS 18-19 19 20 23 28 27 26 16 30 20 17 13 6 19 245
TOTALS 2006 825 806 1037 1033 1101 997 928 953 1407 716 663 538 825 11004
JAN THRU JAN THRU
2007 BUILDING PERMITS JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN TOT DEC TOTST. LOUIS CITY AREA 1 66 136 58 63 79 75 59 44 43 54 55 73 66 805
ST. LOUIS COUNTY AREAS 2-8 150 202 212 210 192 202 199 172 225 150 140 75 150 2129
JEFFERSON COUNTY AREAS 9-11 55 64 96 91 112 113 84 136 63 78 100 48 55 1040
ST. CHARLES COUNTY AREAS 13-15B 245 206 253 295 288 302 306 238 219 241 248 108 245 2949
ST. CLAIR COUNTY AREAS 16A-16B 93 87 129 98 115 100 90 80 66 70 51 49 93 1028
MADISON COUNTY AREAS 17A-17D 56 59 91 70 90 67 73 54 59 40 45 34 56 738
FRANKLIN COUNTY AREAS 20-21 17 26 22 35 33 38 49 36 48 36 27 8 17 375
WARREN COUNTY AREAS 22-23 30 26 36 28 25 44 33 23 35 31 22 9 30 342
LINCOLN COUNTY AREAS 24-25 33 26 30 23 49 17 36 47 26 30 21 10 33 348
MONROE COUNTY AREAS 18-19 21 17 28 25 27 20 22 19 13 23 10 4 21 229
TOTALS 2007 766 849 955 938 1010 978 951 849 797 753 719 418 766 9983
i i i S
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
38/75
Building Permit Summary
JAN THRU JAN THRU
2008 BUILDING PERMITS JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN TOT DEC TOT
ST. LOUIS CITY AREA 1 73 102 105 24 31 20 26 55 14 28 6 5 73 489
ST. LOUIS COUNTY AREAS 2-8 66 53 43 56 58 59 71 37 31 38 31 21 66 564
JEFFERSON COUNTY AREAS 9-11 87 70 93 85 90 77 83 41 41 43 24 20 87 754
ST. CHARLES COUNTY AREAS 13-15B 149 126 149 222 141 124 131 110 93 134 43 64 149 1486
ST. CLAIR COUNTY AREAS 16A-16B 63 60 49 47 76 55 48 40 38 59 23 40 63 598
MADISON COUNTY AREAS 17A-17D 31 40 61 66 61 40 59 92 51 38 33 17 31 589
FRANKLIN COUNTY AREAS 20-21 13 16 23 22 32 38 16 26 25 19 25 36 13 291
WARREN COUNTY AREAS 22-23 21 11 9 11 16 9 7 4 7 10 5 2 21 112
LINCOLN COUNTY AREAS 24-25 10 21 18 33 23 40 25 21 18 26 23 17 10 275
MONROE COUNTY AREAS 18-19 13 10 9 14 11 8 16 10 12 10 8 5 13 126
TOTALS 2008 526 509 559 580 539 470 482 436 330 405 221 227 526 5284
JAN THRU CURRENT2009 BUILDING PERMITS JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN TOT Y-T-D
ST. LOUIS CITY AREA 1 18 18 18
ST. LOUIS COUNTY AREAS 2-8 18 18 18
JEFFERSON COUNTY AREAS 9-11 17 17 17
ST. CHARLES COUNTY AREAS 13-15B 62 62 62
ST. CLAIR COUNTY AREAS 16A-16B 17 17 17
MADISON COUNTY AREAS 17A-17D 8 8 8
FRANKLIN COUNTY AREAS 20-21 12 12 12
WARREN COUNTY AREAS 22-23 2 2 2
LINCOLN COUNTY AREAS 24-25 10 10 10
MONROE COUNTY AREAS 18-19 4 4 4
TOTALS 2009 168 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 168 168
Hi t i l N H S l D d E ti 10 t k t
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
39/75
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand - Entire 10-county market
Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots
n y act ve su v s on ata, not omes u t on o ots
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09
Next 12
Mos
Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventor
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09Next 12 Mos
Closings 10028 10185 9629 9319 9251 9429 9060 8074 7656 7165 6534
Net Inv. 2443.8 2592.5 2776.8 3116.4 2977.5 3142.8 3043.0 2961.6 3174.7 2795.9
30% Closing 3008.4 3055.5 2888.7 2795.7 2775.3 2828.7 2718.0 2422.2 2296.8 2149.5 1960.2
20% Closing 2005.6 2037.0 1925.8 1863.8 1850.2 1885.8 1812.0 1614.8 1531.2 1433.0 1306.8
Gross Inv 8381 8825 8871 8913 9178 9064 8271 7986 6910 5312
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
C t d I t N H
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
40/75
Counted Inventory New HomesMG Areas 1 St. Louis City
Total
Max Preferred NFU Today 53.6 53.7 48.5 46.4 34.6 22.6 16.9 3.1 279.5
NFU 12 Months Back 33.4 85.1 59.4 43.6 21.8 7.2 2.3 0.3 253.0
NFU 8 Months Back 52.2 111.2 92.8 62.4 35.6 11.7 2.8 0.3 369.0
NFU 4 Months Back 99.6 246.4 225.5 168.1 102.9 40.0 11.3 0.3 894.0
Current NFU 108.3 139.7 125.4 117.6 51.2 20.2 13.3 1.3 577.0
Max NFU Preferred % 22% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 32%
Tracked subdivision demand, not "Forecast" demand
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total
COUNTED INVENTORY 243.8 244.2 201.9 178.5 123.5 75.4 52.9 9.8 1130.0
NOT SOLD INVENTORY 97.5 139.7 125.4 117.6 51.2 20.2 13.3 2.0 566.8
PROJ. MONTHLY DEMAN 15.9 15.9 13.2 11.6 8.0 4.9 3.4 0.7 73.6
NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 6.1 8.8 9.5 10.2 6.4 4.1 3.9 2.9 7.7
2 to 2.4 months supply or lower is ideal Note: In late 2008, in MG Area 1, som e units changed to rentals
135.5
108.3
104.5
139.7
76.5
125.4
60.9
117.6
72.3
51.2
55.2
20.2
39.6
13.3
8.51.3
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0N
u
m
b
e
r
o
f
N
e
w
H
o
m
e
s
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+
New Home and Lot Combined Price Ranges
Under Construction Finished Unoccupied Including Models (i.e.) NFU
Hi t i l N H S l D d
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
41/75
Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Areas 1 St. Louis City
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09
Next 12
Mos
Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09
Next 12 Mos
Closings 760 833 737 759 912 983 881 660 483 453 883
Net Inv. 444.8 523.4 510.2 477.0 437.3 431.0 426.0 408.5 886.0 566.8
30% Closing 228.0 249.9 221.1 227.7 273.6 294.9 264.3 198.0 144.9 135.9 264.9
20% Closing 152.0 166.6 147.4 151.8 182.4 196.6 176.2 132.0 96.6 90.6 176.6
Gross Inv 2224 2617 2551 2385 2190 2155 2130 1915 1872 1130
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Counted Inventory New Homes
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
42/75
Counted Inventory New HomesMG Areas 2 thru 8 St. Louis County
Total
Max Preferred NFU Today 53.4 68.6 49.8 22.5 19.6 36.6 28.8 15.4 294.8
NFU 12 Months Back 95.5 105.0 72.7 64.1 56.5 64.3 39.2 16.8 514.0
NFU 8 Months Back 107.4 117.1 84.2 61.5 50.0 59.4 38.0 14.6 532.0
NFU 4 Months Back 99.9 176.0 115.9 56.1 54.3 78.6 61.0 31.4 673.0
Current NFU 106.0 173.8 122.2 52.6 47.5 79.5 62.8 32.7 677.0
Max NFU Preferred % 22% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 32%
Tracked subdivision demand, not "Forecast" demand
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total
COUNTED INVENTORY 242.9 311.8 207.7 86.5 69.9 122.2 90.0 48.2 1179.0
NOT SOLD INVENTORY 99.0 167.1 104.9 45.4 42.3 71.6 59.1 28.1 617.6
PROJ. MONTHLY DEMAN 21.7 23.3 15.9 9.3 9.1 12.1 8.5 4.7 104.6
NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 4.6 7.2 6.6 4.9 4.7 5.9 7.0 6.0 5.9
2 to 2.4 months supply or lower is ideal
136.9
106.0
138.0
173.8
85.5
122.2
33.9
52.6
22.5
47.5
42.7
79.5
27.2
62.8
15.5
32.7
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0N
u
m
b
e
r
o
f
N
e
w
H
o
m
e
s
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+
New Home and Lot Combined Price Ranges
Under Construction Finished Unoccupied Including Models (i.e.) NFU
Historical New Home Supply vs Demand
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
43/75
Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Area 2 thru 8 St. Louis County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09
Next 12
Mos
Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventor
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09Next 12 Mos
Closings 1834 1793 1723 1729 1691 1620 1417 1244 1172 1299 1255Net Inv. 493.8 561.6 506.7 451.2 486.7 509.2 523.3 529.1 637.7 617.6
30% Closing 550.2 537.9 516.9 518.7 507.3 486.0 425.1 373.2 351.6 389.7 376.5
20% Closing 366.8 358.6 344.6 345.8 338.2 324.0 283.4 248.8 234.4 259.8 251.0
Gross Inv 1830 1796 1782 1515 1692 1841 1743 1662 1527 1179
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Historical New Home Supply vs Demand
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
44/75
Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Area 2 North St. Louis County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09
Next 12
Mos
Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09Next 12 Mos
Closings 473 455 399 375 345 282 209 145 97 79 63Net Inv. 78.6 92.5 84.5 57.6 46.6 48.0 45.2 45.2 38.3 33.7
30% Closing 141.9 136.5 119.7 112.5 103.5 84.6 62.7 43.5 29.1 23.7 18.9
20% Closing 94.6 91.0 79.8 75.0 69.0 56.4 41.8 29.0 19.4 15.8 12.6
Gross Inv 264 239 219 163 133 113 88 75 63 60
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
45/75
Historical New Home Supply vs Demand
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
46/75
Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Area 4 Center / South St. Louis County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09
Next 12
Mos
Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09Next 12 Mos
Closings 194 251 247 193 156 152 145 139 174 272 333Net Inv. 93.8 114.0 97.0 71.8 80.5 112.2 135.0 121.1 165.5 155.7
30% Closing 58.2 75.3 74.1 57.9 46.8 45.6 43.5 41.7 52.2 81.6 99.9
20% Closing 38.8 50.2 49.4 38.6 31.2 30.4 29.0 27.8 34.8 54.4 66.6
Gross Inv 360 365 394 349 396 554 601 574 516 403
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
47/75
Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Area 5 South St. Louis County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09
Next 12
Mos
Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09Next 12 Mos
Closings 487 417 431 466 469 423 352 313 262 283 223Net Inv. 120.6 125.0 100.2 85.0 102.7 111.2 92.7 104.0 95.2 53.1
30% Closing 146.1 125.1 129.3 139.8 140.7 126.9 105.6 93.9 78.6 84.9 66.9
20% Closing 97.4 83.4 86.2 93.2 93.8 84.6 70.4 62.6 52.4 56.6 44.6
Gross Inv 373 386 306 196 282 275 221 205 186 92
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
48/75
Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Area 6 Northwest St. Louis County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09
Next 12
Mos
Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09Next 12 Mos
Closings 61 74 89 88 84 79 118 123 106 107 126
Net Inv. 16.5 17.8 21.6 28.5 46.4 39.0 37.3 45.7 46.6 88.4
30% Closing 18.3 22.2 26.7 26.4 25.2 23.7 35.4 36.9 31.8 32.1 37.8
20% Closing 12.2 14.8 17.8 17.6 16.8 15.8 23.6 24.6 21.2 21.4 25.2
Gross Inv 78 89 90 115 164 187 152 134 138 142
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
49/75
pp yMG Area 7 Center / West St. Louis County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09
Next 12
Mos
Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventor
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09Next 12 Mos
Closings 108 101 97 151 152 166 142 127 131 121 96Net Inv. 24.2 50.9 37.4 34.5 41.6 42.1 54.2 37.6 58.8 37.7
30% Closing 32.4 30.3 29.1 45.3 45.6 49.8 42.6 38.1 39.3 36.3 28.8
20% Closing 21.6 20.2 19.4 30.2 30.4 33.2 28.4 25.4 26.2 24.2 19.2
Gross Inv 113 110 112 90 146 145 107 109 102 66
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
50/75
pp yMG Area 8 West St. Louis County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09
Next 12
Mos
Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventor
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09Next 12 Mos
Closings 370 324 268 249 231 253 208 193 172 179 138
Net Inv. 72.3 66.2 53.4 76.2 59.3 54.4 49.1 49.0 43.3 46.4
30% Closing 111.0 97.2 80.4 74.7 69.3 75.9 62.4 57.9 51.6 53.7 41.4
20% Closing 74.0 64.8 53.6 49.8 46.2 50.6 41.6 38.6 34.4 35.8 27.6
Gross Inv 215 167 149 144 153 155 159 149 122 81
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Counted Inventory New Homes
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
51/75
yMG Areas 9 thru 11 Jefferson County
TotalMax Preferred NFU Today 26.4 26.6 30.8 17.3 3.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 106.0
NFU 12 Months Back 53.1 67.7 81.2 41.4 11.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 256.0
NFU 8 Months Back 69.9 77.0 86.7 45.4 9.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 289.0
NFU 4 Months Back 44.5 65.4 82.0 40.8 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 240.0
Current NFU 49.4 72.0 74.4 36.9 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 241.0
Max NFU Preferred % 22% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 32%
Tracked subdivision demand, not "Forecast" demand
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total
COUNTED INVENTORY 120.2 120.8 128.5 66.4 13.9 2.7 0.6 0.0 453.0
NOT SOLD INVENTORY 45.4 68.1 74.4 36.9 6.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 232.2
PROJ. MONTHLY DEMAN 11.5 17.0 14.2 7.2 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 52.2
NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 3.9 4.0 5.2 5.1 3.9 1.3 1.4 0.0 4.5
2 to 2.4 months supply or lower is ideal
70.8
49.4
48.9
72.0
54.2
74.4
29.5
36.9
5.5
8.42.70.0 0.60.0 0.00.00.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
N
u
m
b
e
r
o
f
N
e
w
H
o
m
e
s
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+
New Home and Lot Combined Price Ranges
Under Construction Finished Unoccupied Including Models (i.e.) NFU
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
52/75
MG Area 9 thru 11 Jefferson County(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09
Next 12
Mos
Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventor
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09Next 12 Mos
Closings 1318 1327 1247 1105 1000 952 849 776 839 787 626
Net Inv. 204.7 210.7 251.3 238.1 213.0 243.5 248.1 282.9 228.6 232.2
30% Closing 395.4 398.1 374.1 331.5 300.0 285.6 254.7 232.8 251.7 236.1 187.8
20% Closing 263.6 265.4 249.4 221.0 200.0 190.4 169.8 155.2 167.8 157.4 125.2
Gross Inv 614 679 596 539 553 553 547 621 498 453
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Counted Inventory New Homes
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
53/75
MG Areas 13 thru 15B St. Charles County
TotalMax Preferred NFU Today 48.4 80.8 70.5 54.0 33.8 17.7 5.9 1.6 312.7
NFU 12 Months Back 104.1 208.6 216.6 172.4 90.9 46.3 13.1 1.1 853.0
NFU 8 Months Back 120.3 247.4 235.3 172.3 87.2 39.6 9.8 1.2 913.0
NFU 4 Months Back 101.4 191.0 181.8 139.3 77.1 35.9 8.4 1.2 736.0
Current NFU 108.9 201.5 179.6 135.4 71.3 32.9 8.1 1.5 739.0
Max NFU Preferred % 22% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 32%
Tracked subdivision demand, not "Forecast" demand
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total
COUNTED INVENTORY 220.0 367.4 293.9 207.8 120.8 58.9 18.3 5.1 1292.0
NOT SOLD INVENTORY 98.0 201.5 179.5 135.3 71.3 32.3 6.0 1.1 725.0
PROJ. MONTHLY DEMAN 21.8 43.1 37.8 27.7 13.8 6.3 1.9 0.6 152.9
NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.1 3.1 1.8 4.7
2 to 2.4 months supply or lower is ideal
111.1
108.9
166.0
201.5
114.3
179.6
72.4
135.4
49.6
71.3
26.0
32.9
10.28.1
3.61.50.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
Nu
m
b
e
r
o
f
Ne
w
H
o
m
e
s
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+
New Home and Lot Combined Price Ranges
Under Construction Finished Unoccupied Including Models (i.e.) NFU
Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandG A 13 1 S C C
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
54/75
MG Areas 13 thru 15B - St. Charles County(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09
Next 12
Mos
Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventor
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09Next 12 Mos
Closings 3658 3752 3555 3428 3051 2861 2770 2583 2558 2199 1835Net Inv. 803.1 729.9 854.9 818.1 833.5 980.4 820.9 858.7 693.7 725.0
30% Closing 1097.4 1125.6 1066.5 1028.4 915.3 858.3 831.0 774.9 767.4 659.7 550.5
20% Closing 731.6 750.4 711.0 685.6 610.2 572.2 554.0 516.6 511.6 439.8 367.0
Gross Inv 2121 2068 2217 1962 2271 2339 1808 1853 1516 1292
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG A 13 E t St Ch l C t
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
55/75
MG Area 13 East St. Charles County(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09
Next 12
Mos
Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09Next 12 Mos
Closings 995 1102 1041 1108 978 880 785 704 730 643 578Net Inv. 149.1 182.9 266.0 212.1 231.6 244.5 253.2 242.7 271.3 248.5
30% Closing 298.5 330.6 312.3 332.4 293.4 264.0 235.5 211.2 219.0 192.9 173.4
20% Closing 199.0 220.4 208.2 221.6 195.6 176.0 157.0 140.8 146.0 128.6 115.6
Gross Inv 636 661 788 689 791 780 692 703 651 512
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG A 14A N th / C t l St Ch l C t
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
56/75
MG Area 14A North / Central St. Charles County(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09
Next 12
Mos
Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventor
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09Next 12 Mos
Closings 1616 1525 1526 1423 1366 1320 1318 1261 1224 1059 826Net Inv. 319.2 297.7 365.3 412.0 394.9 472.8 332.5 381.9 230.7 260.6
30% Closing 484.8 457.5 457.8 426.9 409.8 396.0 395.4 378.3 367.2 317.7 247.8
20% Closing 323.2 305.0 305.2 284.6 273.2 264.0 263.6 252.2 244.8 211.8 165.2
Gross Inv 772 832 921 802 935 936 634 693 473 403
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Area 14B Northwest St Charles County
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
57/75
MG Area 14B Northwest St. Charles County(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09
Next 12
Mos
Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventor
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09Next 12 Mos
Closings 616 642 628 546 504 417 426 378 386 334 262
Net Inv. 227.8 186.1 160.7 147.9 145.2 164.3 124.8 143.6 106.4 124.3
30% Closing 184.8 192.6 188.4 163.8 151.2 125.1 127.8 113.4 115.8 100.2 78.6
20% Closing 123.2 128.4 125.6 109.2 100.8 83.4 85.2 75.6 77.2 66.8 52.4
Gross Inv 434 420 336 300 323 336 247 235 190 192
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Area 15A South / Central St Charles County
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
58/75
MG Area 15A South / Central St. Charles County(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09
Next 12
Mos
Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09Next 12 Mos
Closings 391 426 306 292 164 206 206 215 176 125 142Net Inv. 93.4 55.5 55.0 38.0 47.8 87.3 99.0 82.3 77.7 85.6
30% Closing 117.3 127.8 91.8 87.6 49.2 61.8 61.8 64.5 52.8 37.5 42.6
20% Closing 78.2 85.2 61.2 58.4 32.8 41.2 41.2 43.0 35.2 25.0 28.4
Gross Inv 228 123 135 136 188 248 206 192 176 163
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Area 15B Southwest St Charles County
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
59/75
MG Area 15B Southwest St. Charles County(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09
Next 12
Mos
Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09Next 12 Mos
Closings 40 57 54 59 39 38 35 25 42 38 27Net Inv. 13.5 7.6 7.8 8.1 13.9 11.5 11.4 8.2 7.5 6.0
30% Closing 12.0 17.1 16.2 17.7 11.7 11.4 10.5 7.5 12.6 11.4 8.1
20% Closing 8.0 11.4 10.8 11.8 7.8 7.6 7.0 5.0 8.4 7.6 5.4
Gross Inv 51 32 37 35 34 39 29 30 26 22
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
repre senting sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - T he activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Counted Inventory - New HomesMG Areas 16A and 16B St Clair County
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
60/75
MG Areas 16A and 16B St. Clair County
TotalMax Preferred NFU Today 15.6 19.8 23.2 14.1 8.0 3.0 1.2 0.0 84.9
NFU 12 Months Back 60.1 106.8 120.5 58.1 20.2 8.8 3.6 0.0 378.0
NFU 8 Months Back 53.1 77.2 92.8 41.6 16.9 9.4 3.9 0.2 295.0
NFU 4 Months Back 46.4 72.8 90.8 36.2 15.0 7.8 4.0 0.2 273.0
Current NFU 42.4 60.6 63.0 31.8 14.5 6.2 2.7 0.0 221.0
Max NFU Preferred % 22% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 32%
Tracked subdivision demand, not "Forecast" demand
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total
COUNTED INVENTORY 71.0 89.9 96.6 54.3 28.6 9.9 3.8 0.0 354.0
NOT SOLD INVENTORY 35.6 56.4 63.0 31.8 14.5 5.7 1.4 0.0 208.2
PROJ. MONTHLY DEMAN 8.3 14.9 18.1 8.5 4.2 1.4 0.9 0.2 56.4
NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.7 3.5 4.0 1.5 0.0 3.7
2 to 2.4 months supply or lower is ideal
28.6
42.4
29.4
60.6
33.7
63.0
22.6
31.8
14.1
14.5
3.7
6.21.12.7
0.00.00.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Nu
m
b
e
r
o
f
Ne
w
H
o
m
e
s
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+
New Home and Lot Combined Price Ranges
Under Construction Finished Unoccupied Including Models (i.e.) NFU
Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Areas 16A and 16B St. Clair County
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
61/75
MG Areas 16A and 16B St. Clair County(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09
Next 12
Mos
Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09Next 12 Mos
Closings 1454 1509 1531 1492 1431 1391 1299 1209 961 863 677Net Inv. 281.8 327.1 374.2 398.5 313.7 291.6 358.1 267.7 247.9 208.2
30% Closing 436.2 452.7 459.3 447.6 429.3 417.3 389.7 362.7 288.3 258.9 203.1
20% Closing 290.8 301.8 306.2 298.4 286.2 278.2 259.8 241.8 192.2 172.6 135.4
Gross Inv 908 950 983 894 800 722 689 655 505 354
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Counted Inventory New HomesMG Areas 17A thru 17D Madison County
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
62/75
MG Areas 17A thru 17D Madison County
TotalMax Preferred NFU Today 14.7 25.9 26.8 14.6 6.3 4.9 1.2 0.4 94.7
NFU 12 Months Back 19.3 83.4 71.0 29.3 16.1 10.8 1.6 0.6 232.0
NFU 8 Months Back 17.9 76.1 68.3 32.0 15.6 9.8 1.8 0.7 222.0
NFU 4 Months Back 16.2 57.9 54.4 25.5 8.6 5.5 0.9 0.1 169.0
Current NFU 25.8 51.1 49.0 25.7 11.3 8.3 1.5 0.4 173.0
Max NFU Preferred % 22% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 32%
Tracked subdivision demand, not "Forecast" demand
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total
COUNTED INVENTORY 66.9 117.7 111.9 56.1 22.4 16.2 3.8 1.1 396.0
NOT SOLD INVENTORY 22.6 48.3 49.0 25.7 10.9 8.3 0.9 0.3 166.0
PROJ. MONTHLY DEMAN 4.8 13.0 10.4 5.0 1.9 1.2 0.3 0.2 36.8
NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 4.7 3.7 4.7 5.1 5.7 7.1 2.8 2.0 4.5
2 to 2.4 months supply or lower is ideal
41.1
25.8
66.6
51.1
62.9
49.0
30.4
25.7
11.2
11.3
7.9
8.3
2.41.5 0.70.40.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
Nu
m
b
e
r
o
f
Ne
w
H
o
m
e
s
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+
New Home and Lot Combined Price Ranges
Under Construction Finished Unoccupied Including Models (i.e.) NFU
Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Areas 17A thru 17D Madison County
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
63/75
G eas t u ad so Cou ty(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09
Next 12
Mos
Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory
3/05 -
3/06
7/05 -
7/06
11/05 -
11/06
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09Next 12 Mos
Closings 1004 971 836 806 733 744 631 554 559 540 441Net Inv. 215.7 239.8 279.5 279.1 241.8 205.7 226.1 216.1 160.9 166.0
30% Closing 301.2 291.3 250.8 241.8 219.9 223.2 189.3 166.2 167.7 162.0 132.3
20% Closing 200.8 194.2 167.2 161.2 146.6 148.8 126.2 110.8 111.8 108.0 88.2
Gross Inv 684 715 742 704 681 542 527 532 410 396
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Counted Inventory New HomesMG Areas 18 thru 19 - Monroe County
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
64/75
y
TotalMax Preferred NFU Today 3.1 5.0 3.6 2.4 2.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 16.7
NFU 12 Months Back 11.6 20.4 22.0 10.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 67.0
NFU 8 Months Back 12.7 17.6 18.8 9.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 61.0
NFU 4 Months Back 8.1 13.9 10.2 7.0 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 42.0
Current NFU 10.6 17.1 11.1 6.5 2.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 48.0
Max NFU Preferred % 22% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 32%
Tracked subdivision demand, not "Forecast" demand
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total
COUNTED INVENTORY 14.1 22.7 14.8 9.1 7.1 1.6 0.6 0.0 70.0
NOT SOLD INVENTORY 8.5 15.7 10.1 4.8 2.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 42.0
PROJ. MONTHLY DEMAN 1.3 2.3 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 8.8
NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 6.8 7.0 4.0 3.2 2.5 1.9 1.4 0.0 4.8
2 to 2.4 months supply or lower is ideal
3.5
10.6
5.7
17.1
3.7
11.1
2.7
6.5
4.6
2.5
1.40.2
0.50.1 0.00.00.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Nu
m
b
e
r
o
f
Ne
w
H
o
m
e
s
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+
New Home and Lot Combined Price Ranges
Under Construction Finished Unoccupied Including Models (i.e.) NFU
Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Areas 18 thru 19 - Monroe County
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
65/75
y(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
0
50
100
150
200
250
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09
Next 12
Mos
Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09Next 12 Mos
Closings na na na 0 97 168 217 162 150 135 106Net Inv. na na na 67.8 68.5 53.2 60.2 58.0 39.7 42.0
30% Closing na na na 0.0 29.1 50.4 65.1 48.6 45.0 40.5 31.8
20% Closing na na na 0.0 19.4 33.6 43.4 32.4 30.0 27.0 21.2
Gross Inv na na na 164 176 127 125 105 86 70
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Counted Inventory New HomesMG Areas 20 thru 21 - Franklin County
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
66/75
TotalMax Preferred NFU Today 14.1 11.0 11.9 6.1 3.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 47.7
NFU 12 Months Back 32.6 37.5 35.3 19.6 11.3 6.6 0.2 0.0 143.0
NFU 8 Months Back 34.5 33.3 32.3 17.0 9.4 5.1 0.5 0.1 132.0
NFU 4 Months Back 36.3 30.5 30.3 11.8 6.2 3.6 0.3 0.0 119.0
Current NFU 24.4 26.8 27.6 13.0 5.8 3.1 0.4 0.0 101.0
Max NFU Preferred % 22% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 32%
Tracked subdivision demand, not "Forecast" demand
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total
COUNTED INVENTORY 64.0 49.8 49.7 23.4 10.8 4.8 0.6 0.0 203.0
NOT SOLD INVENTORY 24.4 26.8 27.5 13.0 5.8 2.4 0.1 0.0 99.9
PROJ. MONTHLY DEMAN 4.4 3.3 3.3 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 14.3
NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 5.5 8.2 8.3 6.5 7.7 7.1 1.4 0.0 7.0
2 to 2.4 months supply or lower is ideal
39.6
24.4
23.0
26.8
22.1
27.6
10.4
13.0
5.0
5.8
1.73.1
0.20.4 0.00.00.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Nu
m
b
e
r
o
f
Ne
w
H
o
m
e
s
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+
New Home and Lot Combined Price Ranges
Under Construction Finished Unoccupied Including Models (i.e.) NFU
Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Areas 20 thru 21 - Franklin County
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
67/75
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09
Next 12
Mos
Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09Next 12 Mos
Closings na na na 0 102 195 285 246 244 205 171
Net Inv. na na na 141.9 147.2 158.4 138.2 125.4 115.3 99.930% Closing na na na 0.0 30.6 58.5 85.5 73.8 73.2 61.5 51.3
20% Closing na na na 0.0 20.4 39.0 57.0 49.2 48.8 41.0 34.2
Gross Inv na na na 295 293 298 267 265 203 203
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Counted Inventory New HomesMG Areas 22 thru 23 - Warren County
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
68/75
TotalMax Preferred NFU Today 13.7 6.3 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 23.2
NFU 12 Months Back 40.0 23.6 8.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 74.0
NFU 8 Months Back 37.8 21.0 6.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 67.0
NFU 4 Months Back 41.8 19.3 4.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 67.0
Current NFU 30.8 16.7 3.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 52.0
Max NFU Preferred % 22% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 32%
Tracked subdivision demand, not "Forecast" demand
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total
COUNTED INVENTORY 62.1 28.6 6.6 2.4 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.0 103.0
NOT SOLD INVENTORY 31.4 16.9 3.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 53.0
PROJ. MONTHLY DEMAN 12.8 7.8 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 22.4
NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 2.4 2.2 2.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 0.0 2.4
2 to 2.4 months supply or lower is ideal
31.3
30.8
11.9
16.7
3.63.0
1.70.7
0.90.4 0.80.2 0.90.2 0.00.00.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Nu
m
b
e
r
o
f
Ne
w
H
o
m
e
s
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+
New Home and Lot Combined Price Ranges
Under Construction Finished Unoccupied Including Models (i.e.) NFU
Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Areas 22 thru 23 - Warren County
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
69/75
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09
Next 12
Mos
Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09Next 12 Mos
Closings na na na 0 64 198 270 262 309 338 269
Net Inv. na na na 68.5 65.3 90.3 73.9 65.2 68.0 53.0
30% Closing na na na 0.0 19.2 59.4 81.0 78.6 92.7 101.4 80.7
20% Closing na na na 0.0 12.8 39.6 54.0 52.4 61.8 67.6 53.8
Gross Inv na na na 129 155 160 142 134 126 103
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Counted Inventory New HomesMG Areas 24 thru 25 - Lincoln County
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
70/75
TotalMax Preferred NFU Today 10.3 9.0 7.0 2.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 30.4
NFU 12 Months Back 56.5 60.7 35.6 13.5 9.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 178.0
NFU 8 Months Back 57.1 44.4 29.3 11.4 10.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 154.0
NFU 4 Months Back 36.1 27.9 21.7 9.6 7.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 104.0
Current NFU 34.3 26.1 17.9 6.6 3.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 89.0
Max NFU Preferred % 22% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 32%
Tracked subdivision demand, not "Forecast" demand
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total
COUNTED INVENTORY 46.7 41.0 29.1 9.7 4.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 132.0
NOT SOLD INVENTORY 34.2 26.1 16.8 6.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 85.2
PROJ. MONTHLY DEMAN 7.2 7.5 5.2 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 22.6
NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 4.8 3.5 3.3 4.7 1.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.8
2 to 2.4 months supply or lower is ideal
12.5
34.3
14.9
26.1
11.3
17.9
3.1
6.6
1.0
3.80.30.4 0.00.0 0.00.00.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
Nu
m
b
e
r
o
f
Ne
w
H
o
m
e
s
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+
New Home and Lot Combined Price Ranges
Under Construction Finished Unoccupied Including Models (i.e.) NFU
Historical New Home Supply vs. DemandMG Areas 24 thru 25 - Lincoln County
(Only active subdivision data not homes built on odd lots)
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
71/75
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
3/06 -3/07
7/06 -7/07
11/06 -11/07
3/07 -3/08
7/07 -7/08
11/07 -11/08
3/08 -3/09
Next 12Mos
Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory
3/06 -
3/07
7/06 -
7/07
11/06 -
11/07
3/07 -
3/08
7/07 -
7/08
11/07 -
11/08
3/08 -
3/09Next 12 Mos
Closings na na na 0 170 317 441 378 381 346 271
Net Inv. na na na 176.3 170.6 179.5 168.4 150.0 96.9 85.230% Closing na na na 0.0 51.0 95.1 132.3 113.4 114.3 103.8 81.3
20% Closing na na na 0.0 34.0 63.4 88.2 75.6 76.2 69.2 54.2
Gross Inv na na na 326 367 327 293 244 167 132
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
How Can A MarketGraphics
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
72/75
How Can A MarketGraphics
Forecast Help You Succeed?
The Absolute Necessity to Outperform the Market Average
Your Goals by:
1. DemographicsHomebuyers First!
2. Communities and Home Sites
3. New Homes
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
73/75
Check Out Our Blog Often For More Helpful Tips!Dont Pack Up Your Toys and Go Home
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
74/75
Don t Pack Up Your Toys and Go Home
Monday, February 23rd, 2009I was out visiting a sampling of new home communities from Columbia, Illinois to St. Louis County toJefferson County to Wentzville (a lot of windshield time but thats what we do). I saw some fairlyclean sites that looked to me as though they were completely finished with selling homes (theyarent). This ends the good news.I also saw:Deteriorated and haphazard signage (if there was any at all)Models (that I could find) were closed and in some cases, no hours were postedNone of the fifteen sites had an information boxFlattened tires on work vehiclesHeaps of construction debrisIf I wanted to buy a house in one of the sites I visited I would not know who to talk to or where to gofor information just imagine an overly cautious buyers reaction.
Two of the sites had some new signage, which was great but the signage color selected wascautionary yellow with black lettering. Cautionary yellow is the color of cautionary type signage likethese:
In a market where every little detail counts, this would probably not be the best color scheme.I talk with our clients everyday about todays market realities and understand we cant afford to dothings the way we once did but we cant just pack up our toys and go home. There are buyers outthere and we need to be available when they are! There are low-cost or no-cost solutionsavailable! What about a self-touring site? Or a centralized sales zone? We need to concentrate
activity. I have tons of solutions. Lets chat about this call me today!
-
8/14/2019 MG STL Gen Pres 032109
75/75
Joe ZanolaMarketGraphics St. Louis Region9315 Manchester RoadSt. Louis, MO 63119(314) 918-7200