milk market situation
TRANSCRIPT
Milk Market Situation
Brussels, 19 March 2015
19 March 2015 2
!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!
EU Productions
Total Butter+ 2.8%
Skimmed-milk powder+ 8.8%
Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder
and partly skimmed milk
powder- 14.2%
Cheese- 4.3%
Fermented milk- 2.3%
Cows' Milk Collected
- 0.8%
- 20% - 15% - 10% - 5% + 0% + 5% + 10% + 15%
Evo
luti
on
in
%
EU-28 Deliveries/Productions development (Jan 2015 compared to Jan 2014)
Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, ISMEARem : Estimations for AT, EL, DK (except milk)
Total Butter+ 3.9%
Skimmed-milk powder+ 22.3%
Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder
and partly skimmed milk
powder- 1.2%
Cheese+ 0.8%
Fermented milk- 2.4%
Cows' Milk Collected
+ 3.8%
- 10% - 5% + 0% + 5% + 10% + 15% + 20% + 25% + 30% + 35%
Evo
luti
on
in
%
EU-28 Deliveries/Productions development
(Apr 2014 - Jan 2015 compared to Apr 2013 - Jan 2014)
Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, ISMEARem : Estimations for AT, EL, DK (except milk)
19 March 2015 3
-16.0% to -12.0%
-12.0% to -8.0%
-8.0% to -4.0%
-4.0% to +0.0%
+0.0% to +4.0%
+4.0% to +8.0%
+8.0% to +12.0%
+12.0% to +16.0%
n/a-2.6
0
+3.9
-1.9
-1.4
-5.5
-14.9
-8.50
-1.7
0
-9.3
-0.3
+3.3
+2.5
+10.0
-2.1
-0.3
+0.9
+5.1
-8.5+0.6
+3.4
+1.7
-0.3
+1.2
Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA
-3.0
19 March 2015 4
-12.0% to -9.0%
-9.0% to -6.0%
-6.0% to -3.0%
-3.0% to +0.0%
+0.0% to +3.0%
+3.0% to +6.0%
+6.0% to +9.0%
+9.0% to +12.0%
n/a+4.8
+3.6
+2.1
+0.7
+2.7
+4.3
+4.5
-5.4+4.8
+4.3
+3.0
+2.6
+7.7
+6.9
+6.6
+8.6
+1.0
+2.5
+5.9
+5.4
+11.3+3.2
+2.9
+2.7
+1.6
+6.5
Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA
+3.8
19 March 2015 5 Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
10
00
To
nn
es
EU - Cows' milk collected ( 30d ajusted months )
2015
2014
2013
2012
Last update : January
Jan-Jan 2015/14 : -0.8%
Source : Estat - Newcronos
6 19 March 2015
32.18
30.41
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
Jan 0
1
Jan 0
2
Jan 0
3
Jan 0
4
Jan 0
5
Jan 0
6
Jan 0
7
Jan 0
8
Jan 0
9
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
EU
R/
10
0 k
g
EU Raw Milk Prices Evolution (up to January 15* )
Weighted EU Average (real fat content)
EU Milk Equivalent Price (based on EU SMPand Butter prices)
Milk Prices (LTO)
Source :MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 & 479/2010 + LTO : Land- en Tuinbouworganisatie Nederland (http://www.milkprices.nl/)
* : provisional prices
19 March 2015 7
Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010
NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others to milk with real fat and protein
content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010
57.8
46.2
42.6
41.7
35.5
35.1
34.5
33.6
33.3
33.2
32.7
32
.18
31.9
31.8
31.7
31.5
31.3
31.0
30.8
30.3
30.0
29.8
29.7
29.3
28.6
28.6
24.8
22.9
22.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
CY MT GR FI IT AT HR DK GB FR IE EU PT ES BG DE SE LU SK NL RO CZ SI BE HU PL EE LT LV
in E
UR
/1
00
kg
E U M I L K P R I C E S
Milk Price 2013
Milk Price 2014
Source : Member States (Reg. 479/2010)
(Jan 2015 * vs Jan 2014)
*: provisional prices
Estimates for CZ, DK, EL, ES,
19 March 2015 8
•Costs - Margins
Source : FADN - base year 2011 + indexes: Eurostat, DG AGRI
19 March 2015 9 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
EUR/1
00 kg
Weekly EU SMP Prices
2012 2013 2014 2015 IP 2009
Latest price : 215 EUR/100kg
Evolution compared to same period last year : -34%
229227
225
216 215213
210
197
174
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
BE GB DE NL EU Avg. IE CZ PL LV
in E
UR
/100 kg
EU S.M.P. Prices (up to 8.03.2015)
I.P
Source : Reg. (EC) No 479/2010 Article 2
19 March 2015 10
19 March 2015 11 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
EUR/1
00 kg
Weekly EU BUTTER Prices
2012 2013 2014 2015 IP 2009
Evolution compared to same period last year : -11%
Latest price : 333 EUR/100kg
19 March 2015 12
410
388
346 343 342333
325 323 322310 310
304
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
SK HR BE DE NL EU
Avg.
ES CZ PL GB IT IE
EU
R/1
00 kg
EU BUTTER Prices (up to 8.03.2015)
Source : Reg. (EC) No 479/2010 Article 2
I.P. = 221.75
19 March 2015 13
333
215
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15
in E
UR
/100 kg
.
EU Quotations of Butter and SMP
(EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)
Butter Intervention buying in price
SMP Intervention buying in price
BUTTER prices
SMP prices
Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010
19 March 2015 14
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
Jan 0
3
Jan 0
4
Jan 0
5
Jan 0
6
Jan 0
7
Jan 0
8
Jan 0
9
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
in E
UR/1
00 k
g
EU Dairy Quotations
(EU Average Prices based on MS communication and weighted by production)
BUTTER
SMP
WMP
CHEDDAR
Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010
19 March 2015 15 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
EUR/1
00 kg
Weekly EU WMP Prices
2012 2013 2014 2015
Evolution compared to same period last year : -27%
Latest price : 277 EUR/100kg
19 March 2015 16
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
EUR/100 kg
Weekly EU CHEDDAR Prices
2012 2013 2014 2015
Evolution compared to same period last year : -18%
Latest price : 329 EUR/100kg
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
EUR/100 kg
Weekly EU EDAM Prices
2012 2 013 2 014 2 015
Evolution compared to same period last year : -27%
Latest price : 273 EUR/100kg
19 March 2015 17
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120Ja
n
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
EUR/1
00 kg
Weekly EU WheyPowder Prices
2012 2013 2014 2015
Evolution compared to same period last year : -5%
Latest price : 96 EUR/100kg
19 March 2015 18
USD/EUR
Source: European Central Bank
US Dollar
1.0557
19 March 2015 19
2 900
2 452
2 221
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
5 500
6 000
Nov 0
7
Feb
08
May
08
Aug
08
Nov 0
8
Feb
09
May
09
Aug
09
Nov 0
9
Feb
10
May 1
0
Aug
10
Nov 1
0
Feb
11
May
11
Aug
11
Nov 1
1
Feb
12
May
12
Aug
12
Nov 1
2
Feb
13
May
13
Aug
13
Nov 1
3
Feb
14
May 1
4
Aug
14
Nov 1
4
Feb
15
Pri
ces
in U
SD
/tonne
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP
Avg Oceania SMP quotation
Avg EU SMP internal Price
Avg US SMP quotation
Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news
19 March 2015 20
3 488
3 020
3 197
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
5 500
6 000
Nov 0
7
Feb
08
May 0
8
Aug
08
Nov 0
8
Feb
09
May 0
9
Aug
09
Nov 0
9
Feb
10
May 1
0
Aug
10
Nov 1
0
Feb
11
May 1
1
Aug
11
Nov 1
1
Feb
12
May 1
2
Aug
12
Nov 1
2
Feb
13
May 1
3
Aug
13
Nov 1
3
Feb
14
May 1
4
Aug
14
Nov 1
4
Feb
15
Pri
ces in U
SD
/tonne
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP
Avg Oceania WMP quotation
Avg EU WMP internal Price
Avg US WMP quotation
Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news
19 March 2015 21
3 975
3 6923 770
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
5 500
6 000
6 500
7 000N
ov 0
7
Feb
08
May
08
Aug
08
Nov 0
8
Feb
09
May 0
9
Aug
09
Nov 0
9
Feb
10
May
10
Aug
10
Nov 1
0
Feb
11
May
11
Aug
11
Nov 1
1
Feb
12
May
12
Aug
12
Nov 1
2
Feb
13
May 1
3
Aug
13
Nov 1
3
Feb
14
May
14
Aug
14
Nov 1
4
Feb
15
Pri
ces in
US
D/tonne
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter
Avg Oceania Butter quotation
Avg EU Butter internal Price
Avg US Butter quotation
Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news
19 March 2015 22
3 6253 457
3 721
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
5 500
6 000
Nov 0
7
Feb
08
May 0
8
Aug
08
Nov 0
8
Feb
09
May 0
9
Aug
09
Nov 0
9
Feb
10
May 1
0
Aug
10
Nov 1
0
Feb
11
May 1
1
Aug
11
Nov 1
1
Feb
12
May 1
2
Aug
12
Nov 1
2
Feb
13
May 1
3
Aug
13
Nov 1
3
Feb
14
May 1
4
Aug
14
Nov 1
4
Feb
15
Pri
ces in
US
D/tonne
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar
Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation
Avg EU Cheddar internal Price
Avg US Cheddar quotation
Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news
19 March 2015 23
EU-28 Exports (1/2) Source : Eurostat (COMEXT)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
118 119126
94102 102
121
1000 Tonnes
BUTTER exports
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan 2015 exports compared to 2014 : - 1%
BUTTER exports
20142015
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
176
229
376
515 520
407
646
1000 TonnesSMP exports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan 2015 exports compared to 2014 : + 24%
SMP exports
20142015
19 March 2015 24
EU-28 Exports (2/2)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
547 569
667 673
768 787
721
1000 Tonnes
CHEESE exports
0
100
200
300
400
500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
483458 445
388 386 374389
1000 TonnesWMP exports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan 2015 exports compared to 2014 : - 15%
CHEESE exports
2014
2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan 2015 exports compared to 2014 : - 9%
WMP exports
2014
2015
19 March 2015 25
7 000
7 200
7 400
7 600
7 800
8 000
8 200
Ja
n
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
in t
on
nes
.
Adjusted U.S. milk production (months of constant length)
2012 2013 2014 2015
Source:USDA
Jan-Jan 2015 vs 2014 : + 2.1% (real monthly production)
19 March 2015 26 Source: Dairy Australia
,500
,600
,700
,800
,900
1,000
1,100
1,200
Ju
l
Au
g
Sep
Oct
No
v
Dec
Ja
n
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Ju
n
in t
on
nes
Jul-Jan 2014/15 compared to 2013/14 : + 2.4%
Australian milk production
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
19 March 2015 27 Source: DCANZ - Fonterra
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Sep
Oct
No
v
Dec
Ja
n
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
in t
on
nes
.
Jun-Jan 2014/15 compared to 2013/14 : + 3.5%
NZ milk production
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
19 March 2015 28
Prices
in US$/t Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15
Weighted
average price % change Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15
AMF n.a. 3 872 3 748 4 000 4 082 4 082 3 877 - 8.5% - 8.8% - 10.5% - 6.1% - 3.9% - 5.6%
Butter n.a. 3 555 3 495 3 603 3 650 3 735 3 555 - 9.1% - 9.5% - 8.6% - 10.0% - 10.4%
BMP n.a. n.a. 2 635 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2 635 - 1.7% - 11.6%
Cheeses n.a. 3 160 3 076 3 155 n.a. n.a. 3 130 - 7.3% - 5.7% - 7.2% - 9.5%
Rennet Casein n.a. 7 672 7 076 8 135 n.a. n.a. 7 507 - 13.7% - 13.7% - 16.9% - 7.7%
Lactose n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
SMP n.a. 2 663 2 935 2 697 2 735 2 708 2 731 - 6.9% - 8.5% - 1.8% - 6.3% - 7.9% - 8.1%
WMP n.a. 2 868 2 977 3 008 2 952 3 002 2 928 - 9.7% - 11.6% - 8.1% - 7.8% - 8.9% - 7.0%
Source : GlobalDairyTrade (http://www.globaldairytrade.info/)
17 Mar 2015 1 € = 1.0738 $ (ECB rate)
in €/t Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15
Weighted
average price
AMF 3 606 3 491 3 725 3 801 3 802 3 611
Butter 3 311 3 255 3 355 3 399 3 478 3 311
BMP 2 454 2 454
Cheese 2 943 2 865 2 938 #VALUE! #VALUE! 2 915
Rennet Casein 7 145 6 590 7 576 #VALUE! #VALUE! 6 991
Lactose
SMP 2 480 2 733 2 512 2 547 2 522 2 544
WMP 2 671 2 772 2 802 2 749 2 796 2 727
% change by contract from previous
auction
Results of the GDT event 136 of 17.03.2015