national economic trends real gdp growth · national economic trends - output and growth aggregate...

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National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth Consumer Price Index Compounded annual rates of change 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0 5 -1 1 2 3 4 6 Q1 2014 Q1 2016 Q1 2015 Q1 2017 Real Gross Domestic Product (DISCONTINUED) Compounded Annual Rate of Change Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) 2018 fred.stlouisfed.org Percent change Jan 2015 May 2015 Sep 2015 Jan 2016 May 2016 Sep 2016 Jan 2017 May 2017 Sep 2017 Jan 2018 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Percent Change Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) 2018 fred.stlouisfed.org Economy at a Glance 1

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Page 1: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends

RealGDPGrowth

ConsumerPriceIndex

Compoundedannualratesofchange

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0

5

-1

1

2

3

4

6

Q12014 Q12016Q12015 Q12017

RealGrossDomesticProduct(DISCONTINUED)

Comp

ound

edAnn

ualR

ateo

fCha

nge

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Percentchange

Jan2015 May2015 Sep2015 Jan2016 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017 Jan2018

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.2

0.4

0.6

ConsumerPriceIndexforAllUrbanConsumers:AllItems

Perce

ntCha

nge

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Economy at a Glance 1

Page 2: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends

IndustrialProduction

InterestRates

Percentchange

Jan2015 May2015 Sep2015 Jan2016 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017 Jan2018

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

0.0

-1.0

-0.5

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

IndustrialProductionIndex

Perce

ntCha

nge

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Percent

Jan2015 May2015 Sep2015 Jan2016 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017 Jan2018

1940 1960 1980 2000

0.0

2.5

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

3.0

3-MonthTreasuryBill:SecondaryMarketRate10-YearTreasuryConstantMaturityRate

Perce

nt

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Economy at a Glance 2

Page 3: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends

ChangeinNonfarmPayrolls

UnemploymentRate

Thousands

Jan2015 May2015 Sep2015 Jan2016 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017 Jan2018

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

320

360

AllEmployees:TotalNonfarmPayrolls

Chan

ge,T

housan

dsof

Perso

ns

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Percentoflaborforce

Jan2015 May2015 Sep2015 Jan2016 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017 Jan2018

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

4.0

5.0

6.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

CivilianUnemploymentRate

Perce

nt

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Economy at a Glance 3

Page 4: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Output and Growth

RealGrossDomesticProduct

IndustrialProductionandInstituteforSupplyManagement(ISM)Indexes

Percentchangefromayearago

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-5

0

5

-4

-3

-2

-1

1

2

3

4

6

RealGrossDomesticProduct(DISCONTINUED)

Perce

ntCha

ngefrom

YearAgo

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Percentchangefromayearago

Apr2016 Jul2016 Oct2016 Jan2017 Apr2017 Jul2017 Oct2017 Jan2018

1940 1960 1980 2000

0

-3

-2

-1

1

2

3

4

60.0

45.0

48.0

51.0

54.0

57.0

63.0

66.0

IndustrialProductionIndex(left)ISMManufacturing:PMICompositeIndex©

Perce

ntCha

ngefrom

YearAgo

Index2012=100

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Long-Run View 4

Page 5: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Output and Growth

AggregatePrivateNonfarmHours

RealChangeinPrivateInventories

Percentchangefromayearago

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016 2018

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

IndexofAggregateWeeklyHours:ProductionandNonsupervisoryEmployees:TotalPrivateIndustries

Perce

ntCha

ngefrom

YearAgo

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

PercentofGDP

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

ChangeinPrivateInventories

(Perce

ntof

GDP

)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Long-Run View 5

Page 6: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Output and Growth

RealFinalSalesandGDP

RealGDPRevisions

Compoundedannualratesofchange

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Q12016Q12015 Q12017

RealGrossDomesticProduct(DISCONTINUED)RealFinalSalesofDomesticProduct(DISCONTINUED)

Comp

ound

edAnn

ualR

ateo

fCha

nge

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Compoundedannualratesofchange

Q12017Q32016 Q42016 Q22017 Q32017

20101995 2000 2005 2015

0.0

2.5

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

3.0

3.5

4.0

Advance Second Third AnnualRevision

Comp

ound

edAnn

ualR

ateo

fCha

nge

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Short-Run View 6

Page 7: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Output and Growth

IndustrialProductionandISMIndex

NominalGrossDomesticProduct

Percentchange

Jan2016 Apr2016 Jul2016 Oct2016 Jan2017 Apr2017 Jul2017 Oct2017 Jan2018

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

0.0

-1.0

-0.5

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

60.0

47.5

50.0

52.5

55.0

57.5

62.5

IndustrialProductionIndex(left)ISMManufacturing:PMICompositeIndex©

Perce

ntCha

nge Index2012=100

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Compoundedannualratesofchange

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0

5

1

2

3

4

6

Q12016Q12015 Q12017

GrossDomesticProduct

Comp

ound

edAnn

ualR

ateo

fCha

nge

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Short-Run View 7

Page 8: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Output and Growth

AggregatePrivateNonfarmHours

AverageWeeklyPrivateNonfarmHours

Percentchange

Jan2016 Apr2016 Jul2016 Oct2016 Jan2017 Apr2017 Jul2017 Oct2017 Jan2018

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0.0

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

IndexofAggregateWeeklyHours:ProductionandNonsupervisoryEmployees:TotalPrivateIndustries

Perce

ntCha

nge

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Hours

Jan2016 Apr2016 Jul2016 Oct2016 Jan2017 Apr2017 Jul2017 Oct2017 Jan2018

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

33.45

33.50

33.55

33.60

33.65

33.70

33.75

33.80

33.85

AverageWeeklyHoursofProductionandNonsupervisoryEmployees:Totalprivate

Hours

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Short-Run View 8

Page 9: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Output and Growth

RealChangeinPrivateInventories

Inventory-SalesRatio

Billionsof2009dollars

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0

40

80

120

20

60

100

140

Q12016Q12015 Q12017

ChangeinRealPrivateInventories(DISCONTINUED)Billion

sofC

hained20

09D

ollars

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Manufacturingandtrade

Jan2016Jan2015 May2015 Sep2015 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

1.35

1.40

1.31

1.32

1.33

1.34

1.36

1.37

1.38

1.39

1.41

1.42

1.43

TotalBusiness:InventoriestoSalesRatio

Ratio

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Short-Run View 9

Page 10: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Output and Growth

CoutributiouofCompoueutstoRealGDPGrowth

CoutributiouofCompoueutstoRealGDPGrowth2015 2016 20173rd 4th 1st 2ud 3rd 4th 1st 2ud

FiualSales 1.86 1.17 1.23 2.94 2.63 0.69 2.73 2.95Cousumptiou 1.23 2.57 1.92 1.99 1.32 2.24 1.49 2.58

FixedIuvestmeut -0.05 0.22 0.25 0.28 1.27 0.53 0.40 1.27Nonresidential -0.52 0.41 0.42 0.02 0.86 0.82 0.58 0.84Residential 0.47 -0.18 -0.18 0.26 0.41 -0.30 -0.18 0.42Goverumeut 0.32 -0.16 0.09 0.03 -0.11 -0.03 0.12 0.50

Federal -0.10 -0.06 0.11 -0.03 -0.16 0.13 0.09 0.23StateandLocal 0.42 -0.11 -0.02 0.06 0.05 -0.16 0.03 0.28NetExports -0.28 0.28 0.36 -1.61 0.22 0.21 0.36 -1.13

Exports -0.33 0.32 0.74 -0.47 0.85 0.42 0.25 0.82Imports 0.04 -0.04 -0.37 -1.14 -0.63 -0.22 0.11 -1.96

ChaugesiuIuveutory -0.64 -0.67 0.16 1.06 -1.46 0.12 0.79 -0.67Residual 0.053 0.106 -0.06 -0.048 0.131 -0.019 -0.099 -0.101

RealGDPGrowth 1.63 0.49 0.58 2.24 2.78 1.76 1.24 3.06

Percentagepointscompoundedannualrates

Q12016 Q22016 Q32016 Q42016 Q12017 Q22017 Q32017 Q42017

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0

5

-3

-2

-1

1

2

3

4

6

Iuveutories Cousumptiou Iuvestmeut Goverumeut Exports Imports

Perc

enta

gePo

intsa

tAnn

ualR

ate

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Contributions of Components to GDP Growth 10

Page 11: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Output and Growth

InterestRates

TreasuryYieldCurve

Percent

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016 2018

1940 1960 1980 2000

0

5

1

2

3

4

6

7

8

10-YearTreasuryConstantMaturityRate3-MonthTreasuryBill:SecondaryMarketRate

Percen

t

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Percent

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

3m 1y 2y 5y 7y 10y

Weeklydata January2018 January2017

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Interest Rates and Equity Market Performance 12

Page 12: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Output and Growth

StandardandPoor's500TotalReturnIndex

TheS&PDowJonesIndicesLLCseriesareCopyright©2014,S&PDowJonesIndicesLLC.Allrightsreserved.

Percentchangefromayearago

Jan2010 Jan2011 Jan2012 Jan2013 Jan2014 Jan2015 Jan2016 Jan2017 Jan2018-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

S&P500

Perc

entC

hang

efrom

Year

Ago

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Interest Rates and Equity Market Performance 13

Page 13: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Inflation and Prices

NIPAChainPriceIndexes

ConsumerPriceIndex

Percentchangefromayearago

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0

-2

-1

1

2

3

4

GrossDomesticProduct:Chain-typePriceIndexGrossDomesticPurchases:Chain-typePriceIndex

Perce

ntC

hang

efro

mYe

arA

go

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Percentchangefromayearago

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016 2018

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0

5

-2

-1

1

2

3

4

6

ConsumerPriceIndexforAllUrbanConsumers:AllItemsConsumerPriceIndexforAllUrbanConsumers:AllItemsLessFoodandEnergy

Perce

ntC

hang

efro

mYe

arA

go

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Long-Run View 14

Page 14: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Inflation and Prices

ProducerPriceIndex,NewandOldMethodology

*DataPriortoNov.2010hastransitionedfromStageofProcessingtotheFinalDemand-IntermediateDemandaggregationsystem

EmploymentCostIndexandCompensationperHour

Percentchangefromayearago

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016 2018

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

-7.5

-2.5

2.5

7.5

ProducerPriceIndexbyCommodityforFinishedGoods(DISCONTINUED)ProducerPriceIndexbyCommodityforFinishedGoodsLessFoodandEnergy(DISCONTINUED)ProducerPriceIndexbyCommodityforFinalDemandProducerPriceIndexbyCommodityforFinalDemand:GoodslessFoodsandEnergy

Perce

ntC

hang

efrom

YearAgo

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0

5

-1

1

2

3

4

6

7

8

EmploymentCostIndex:Compensation:PrivateIndustryWorkersNonfarmBusinessSector:CompensationPerHour

Perce

ntC

hang

efro

mYe

arA

go

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Long-Run View 15

Page 15: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Inflation and Prices

NIPAChainPriceIndexes

Oil&NaturalGasPrices:Spot&Futures

Compoundedannualratesofchange

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0.0

2.5

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

3.0

Q12016Q12015 Q12017

GrossDomesticProduct:Chain-typePriceIndexGrossDomesticPurchases:Chain-typePriceIndex

Comp

ound

edA

nnua

lRat

eofC

hang

e

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BoardofGovernors,EIA 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Dollarsperbarrel

2015-01-01

2016-01-01

2018-01-01

2014-07-01

2015-07-01

2016-07-01

2017-01-01

2017-07-01

2018-07-01

2019-01-01

2012-07-01

2013-01-01

2013-07-01

2014-01-01

1990 2000 20101995 2005 2015

40

60

80

100

30

50

70

90

110

6.00

1.50

2.25

3.00

3.75

4.50

5.25

6.75

7.50

CrudeOilPrices:WestTexasIntermediate(WTI)-Cushing,Oklahoma(left)HenryHubNaturalGasSpotPrice(right)OilFutures(left)GasFutures(right)

Dolla

rspe

rBar

rel,

Perce

nt

DollarsperMillionBTU,Percent

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions EIA 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Short-Run View 16

Page 16: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Inflation and Prices

ConsumerPriceIndex

ConsumptionChainPriceIndex

Compoundedannualratesofchange

Jan2015 May2015 Sep2015 Jan2016 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017 Jan2018

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

2.5

5.0

7.5

ConsumerPriceIndexforAllUrbanConsumers:AllItemsConsumerPriceIndexforAllUrbanConsumers:AllItemsLessFoodandEnergy

Comp

ound

edA

nnua

lRat

eofC

hang

e

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BoardofGovernors,EIA 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Compoundedannualratesofchange

Jan2015 May2015 Sep2015 Jan2016 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-5.0

0.0

5.0

-2.5

2.5

7.5PersonalConsumptionExpenditures:Chain-typePriceIndexPersonalConsumptionExpendituresExcludingFoodandEnergy(Chain-TypePriceIndex)

Comp

ound

edA

nnua

lRat

eofC

hang

e

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BoardofGovernors,EIA 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Short-Run View 17

Page 17: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Inflation and Prices

ProducerPrceIndex,FinalDemand

UnitLaborCost

Compoundedannualratesofchange

Jan2015 Jan2016 Jan2017 Jan2018May2015 Sep2015 May2016 Sep2016 May2017 Sep2017

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

ProducerPriceIndexbyCommodityforFinalDemandProducerPriceIndexbyCommodityforFinalDemand:GoodslessFoodsandEnergy

Comp

ound

edA

nnua

lRat

eofC

hang

e

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BoardofGovernors,EIA 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Compoundedannualratesofchange

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-10

0

10

-15

-5

5

15

Q12016Q12015 Q12017

ManufacturingSector:UnitLaborCostNonfarmBusinessSector:UnitLaborCost

Comp

ound

edA

nnua

lRat

eofC

hang

e

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BoardofGovernors,EIA 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Short-Run View 18

Page 18: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Inflation and Prices

EmploymentCostIndex

CompensationperHour

Percentchangefromayearago

Q12013 Q12014 Q12015 Q12016 Q12017Q32012 Q32013 Q32014 Q32015 Q32016 Q32017

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1.0

2.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

EmploymentCostIndex:Compensation:PrivateIndustryWorkersEmploymentCostIndex:WagesandSalaries:PrivateIndustryWorkersEmploymentCostIndex:Benefits:PrivateIndustryWorkers

Perce

ntC

hang

efro

mYe

arA

go

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BoardofGovernors,EIA 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Compoundedannualratesofchange

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-5

0

5

-4

-3

-2

-1

1

2

3

4

Q12016Q12015 Q12017

NonfarmBusinessSector:CompensationPerHour

Comp

ound

edA

nnua

lRat

eofC

hang

e

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BoardofGovernors,EIA 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Short-Run View 19

Page 19: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Labor Markets

Employment

Unemployment,LaborForceParticipation,andEmploymentRates

Percentchangefromayearago

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016 2018

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-5

0

-4

-3

-2

-1

1

2

3

4

AllEmployees:TotalNonfarmPayrollsCivilianEmploymentLevel

Perce

ntCha

ngefrom

YearAgo

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Percentoflaborforce

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016 2018

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

57.0

58.5

60.0

61.5

63.0

64.5

66.0

67.5

69.0

CivilianUnemploymentRate(left)CivilianEmployment-PopulationRatio(right)CivilianLaborForceParticipationRate(right)

Perce

nt

Percent

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Long-Run View 20

Page 20: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Labor Markets

DurationofUnemploymentPercentoflaborforce

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016 2018

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

20

4

8

12

16

24

28

MedianDurationofUnemployment(rightscale)Unemployed>15Weeks(leftscale)Unemployed<5Weeks(leftscale)

(Perce

ntof

labo

rfor

ce)

(Weeks)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Long-Run View 21

Page 21: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Labor Markets

ChangeinNonfarmPayrolls

ChangeinManufacturingPayrolls

Thousands

Oct2015 Jan2016 Apr2016 Jul2016 Oct2016 Jan2017 Apr2017 Jul2017 Oct2017 Jan2018

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

320

360

AllEmployees:TotalNonfarmPayrolls

Chan

ge,T

housan

dsof

Perso

ns

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Thousands

Oct2015 Jan2016 Apr2016 Jul2016 Oct2016 Jan2017 Apr2017 Jul2017 Oct2017 Jan2018

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0

-30

-20

-10

10

20

30

40

AllEmployees:Manufacturing

Chan

ge,T

housan

dsof

Perso

ns

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Short-Run View 22

Page 22: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Labor Markets

ChangeinHouseholdEmployment

LaborForceandPopulation

Thousands

Oct2015 Jan2016 Apr2016 Jul2016 Oct2016 Jan2017 Apr2017 Jul2017 Oct2017 Jan2018

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-400

0

400

800

-600

-200

200

600

1,000

CivilianEmploymentLevel

Chan

ge,T

housan

dsof

Perso

ns

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Percentchangefromayearago

Jan2015Jul2012 Jan2013 Jul2013 Jan2014 Jul2014 Jul2015 Jan2016 Jul2016 Jan2017 Jul2017 Jan2018

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

-0.5

0.5

1.5

CivilianLaborForceCivilianNoninstitutionalPopulation

Perce

ntCha

ngefrom

YearAgo

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Short-Run View 23

Page 23: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Labor Markets

AvailableLaborSupplyandComponents

UnemploymentRate&JobOpeningsRate

P ercentoflaborforce

Jan2015Jul2012 Jan2013 Jul2013 Jan2014 Jul2014 Jul2015 Jan2016 Jul2016 Jan2017 Jul2017 Jan2018

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

5

10

3

4

6

7

8

9

11

12

13

WanttoWorkUnemployedAvaliableLaborSupply

iPerce

ntof

laborforce)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Percent

Jan2015Jul2012 Jan2013 Jul2013 Jan2014 Jul2014 Jul2015 Jan2016 Jul2016 Jan2017 Jul2017 Jan2018

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

4

5

6

7

8

9

3.0

2.5

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

JobOpeningsRate(rightscale)UnemploymentRate(leftscale)

(Perce

nt) (Percent)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Short-Run View 24

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National Economic Trends - Consumer Spending

RealDisposablePersonalIncome

RealConsumption

Percentchangefromyearago,quarterlydata

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0

5

-3

-2

-1

1

2

3

4

6

7

RealDisposablePersonalIncome

(Per

cent

chan

gefro

may

eara

go)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauoftheCensus 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Percentchangefromyearago,quarterlydata

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016

1960 1980 2000

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

0

6

-4

-2

2

4

8

Total(rightscale)Durables(leftscale)

(Per

cent)

(Percent)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauoftheCensus 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Long-Run View 25

Page 25: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Consumer Spending

RetailandFoodServicesSales

DatafromJan.1992tothepresentareonaNAICSbasis;datapriortoJan.1992areonanSICbasisandarenotstrictlycomparable(seeEndNote).

DebtServicePaymentsandHouseholdDebtOutstanding

Percentchangefromyearago,quarterlyaverage

Break

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

AdvanceRetailSales:RetailandFoodServices,TotalRetailSales(DISCONTINUED);QuarterlyBreak

Perc

entC

hang

efro

mYe

arA

go

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauoftheCensus 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016

1960 1980 2000

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

-2.5

2.5

7.5

12.5

-8.0

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

-6.0

-2.0

2.0

6.0

HouseholdDebtOutstanding(leftscale)DebtServicePayments(rightscale)

(Per

cent

chan

gefro

mye

arag

o,qu

arte

rlyda

ta)

(Percent)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauoftheCensus 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Long-Run View 26

Page 26: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Consumer Spending

RealDisposablePersonalIncome

PersonalSavingRate

Percentchange

May2015 Sep2015 Jan2016 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0.0

-0.2

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

RealDisposablePersonalIncome

PercentChange

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Percent

Jan2015Jul2012 Jan2013 Jul2013 Jan2014 Jul2014 Jul2015 Jan2016 Jul2016 Jan2017 Jul2017

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

5

10

2

3

4

6

7

8

9

11

12

PersonalSavingRate

Percent

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Short-Run View 27

Page 27: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Consumer Spending

RealConsumption

RealConsumption

Compoundedannualratesofchange

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Q12016Q12015 Q12017

RealPersonalConsumptionExpendituresCompoundedAnnualRateofChange

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Percentchange

Jan2016May2015 Sep2015 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

0.0

0.5

-0.2

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.6

0.7

0.8

RealPersonalConsumptionExpenditures

PercentChange

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Short-Run View 28

Page 28: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Consumer Spending

Retail&FoodServices

RealDurablesConsumption&VehicleSales

Percentchange

Jan2016 Jan2018May2015 Sep2015 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

0.0

2.5

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

AdvanceRetailSales:RetailandFoodServices,TotalAdvanceRetailSales:RetailandFoodServicesExcludingMotorVehiclesandPartsDealers

PercentChange

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Percentchange

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

1980 1990 2000 2010

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

24.0

28.0

LightWeightVehicleSales:AutosandLightTrucks(right)

PercentChange MillionsofUnits

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Short-Run View 29

Page 29: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Consumer Spending

ConsumerSentiment(U.ofMichigan)

RealDurablesConsumption

Index(6-MonthLag)

Jan2015Jul2012 Jan2013 Jul2013 Jan2014 Jul2014 Jul2015 Jan2016 Jul2016 Jan2017 Jul2017

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

70

80

90

100

75

85

95

105

UniversityofMichigan:ConsumerSentiment

Index1966:Q1=100

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Compoundedannualratesofchange

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

0.0

10.0

-2.5

2.5

5.0

7.5

12.5

15.0

Q12015 Q12016 Q12017

RealPersonalConsumptionExpenditures:DurableGoods

CompoundedAnnualRateofChange

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Short-Run View 30

Page 30: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Investment Spending

Investmeut

PrivateFixedIuvestmeut

PercentofnominalGDP

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

20.0

22.5

25.0

TotalPrivate

(Perce

ntofnom

inalGD

P)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Percentchangefromyearago

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-20

-10

0

10

-25

-15

-5

5

15

RealPrivateFixedIuvestmeut(DISCONTINUED)FixedPrivateIuvestmeut

Perce

ntChangefromYearAgo

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Long-Run View 30

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National Economic Trends - Investment Spending

RealNouresideutialFixedaudEquipmeutIuvestmeut

RealResideutialFixedIuvestmeut

Percentchangefromyearago

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

RealGrossPrivateDomesticIuvestmeut:FixedIuvestmeut:Nouresideutial:EquipmeutRealPrivateNouresideutialFixedIuvestmeut(DISCONTINUED)

Perce

ntChangefromYearAgo

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Percentchangefromyearago

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

RealPrivateResideutialFixedIuvestmeut(DISCONTINUED)

Perce

ntChangefromYearAgo

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Long-Run View 31

Page 32: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Investment Spending

GrossSavingRatesandBalanceonCurrentAccount(NIPA)

RealPrivateFixedInvestment

PercentofGDP

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

GrossGovt.SavingGrossPrivate.SavingBOCA

(Perce

nt)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauoftheCensus 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Compoundedannualratesofchange

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

0.0

10.0

-2.5

2.5

5.0

7.5

Q12015 Q12016 Q12017

RealPrivateFixedInvestment(DISCONTINUED)

Comp

ound

edA

nnua

lRat

eofC

hang

e

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauoftheCensus 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Short-Run View 32

Page 33: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Investment Spending

NondefenseCapitalGoodsOrders

RealEquipmentInvestment

Percentchangefromyearago,excludingaircraft

Q12014 Q12016Q32012 Q12013 Q32013 Q32014 Q12015 Q32015 Q32016 Q12017 Q32017

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

-10

0

10

20

-5

5

15

EquipmentInvestmentOrders

Perce

ntC

hang

efro

mYe

arA

go

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauoftheCensus 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Compoundedannualratesofchange

2000 20102005 2015

-10

0

10

-15

-5

5

15

Q12015 Q12016 Q12017

Comp

ound

edA

nnua

lRat

eofC

hang

e

RealEquipmentInvestment

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauoftheCensus 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Short-Run View 33

Page 34: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Investment Spending

RealNonresidentialFixedInvestment

RealResidentialFixedInvestment

Compoundedannualratesofchange

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

0.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

2.5

5.0

7.5

Q12015 Q12016 Q12017

RealPrivateNonresidentialFixedInvestment(DISCONTINUED)

Comp

ound

edA

nnua

lRat

eofC

hang

e

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauoftheCensus 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Compoundedannualratesofchange

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

-10

0

10

-5

5

15

Q12015 Q12016 Q12017

RealPrivateResidentialFixedInvestment(DISCONTINUED)

Comp

ound

edA

nnua

lRat

eofC

hang

e

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauoftheCensus 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Short-Run View 34

Page 35: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Investment Spending

HousingStartsandNewHomeSalesMillions,annualrate

Jan2015 May2015 Sep2015 Jan2016 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017 Jan2018

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

1.0

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

0.60

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.65

0.70

HousingStarts(leftscale)NewHomeStarts(rightscale)

Mil

lion

s,

annu

alra

te Millions,annualrate

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauoftheCensus 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Short-Run View 35

Page 36: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Government Reveues, Spending, and Debt

Govt.ConsumptionandInvestment

Govt.CurrentReceiptsandExpenditures

GovernmentBudgets

NationalIncomeAccountsCalendarYears

UnifiedBudgetFiscalYears

StateandLocal Federal Federal

Receipts Expenditures Surplus/Defecit(-)

Receipts Expenditures Surplus/Defecit(-)

Receipts Expenditures Surplus/Defecit(-)

2000 1,303.1 1,417.9 9.9 2,068.2 2,017.4 156.5 1,991.1 1,862.8 128.22001 1,352.6 1,509.4 -65.3 2,031.8 2,141.1 14.5 1,853.1 2,010.9 -157.82002 1,388.4 1,596.0 -120.9 1,870.6 2,297.9 -270.5 1,782.3 2,159.9 -377.62003 1,474.6 1,683.4 -121.4 1,895.1 2,426.6 -402.9 1,880.1 2,292.8 -412.72004 1,575.1 1,775.4 -108.4 2,027.4 2,608.2 -399.2 2,153.6 2,472.0 -318.32005 1,708.8 1,850.3 -66.6 2,303.5 2,764.8 -304.7 2,406.9 2,655.1 -248.22006 1,810.9 1,973.3 -39.4 2,537.7 2,932.8 -227.0 2,568.0 2,728.7 -160.72007 1,900.6 2,074.1 -72.7 2,667.2 3,213.5 -265.7 2,524.0 2,982.5 -458.62008 1,909.1 2,191.2 -165.1 2,579.5 3,487.2 -634.0 2,105.0 3,517.7 -1,412.72009 1,919.2 2,235.8 -271.9 2,238.4 3,772.0 -1,248.8 2,162.7 3,457.1 -1,294.42010 1,998.5 2,246.4 -237.3 2,443.3 3,818.3 -1,328.7 2,303.5 3,603.1 -1,299.62011 2,030.5 2,277.9 -215.9 2,574.1 3,789.1 -1,244.1 2,450.0 3,536.9 -1,087.0

Billionsof2009dollars

2000 20101995 2005 2015

1960 1980 2000

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

2,800

3,200

TotalState&LocalFederal

Billio

nsof

Cha

ined2

009D

ollars

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

PercentofGDP

2000 20101995 2005 2015

1960 1980 2000

15

20

25

30

35

40

TotalExpendituresTotalReceiptsFed.ExpendituresFed.Receipts

(Perce

nt)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

BillionsofDollars

Receipts and Outlays 35

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National Economic Trends - Government Reveues, Spending, and Debt

2012 2,057.2 2,327.3 -220.8 2,699.1 3,782.2 -1,090.1 2,775.1 3,454.6 -679.52013 2,136.8 2,405.6 -190.5 3,138.4 3,901.4 -643.8 3,021.5 3,506.1 -484.62014 2,236.7 2,497.0 -168.9 3,291.2 4,028.0 -610.2 3,249.9 3,688.4 -438.52015 2,350.7 2,583.7 -146.4 3,441.4 4,149.4 -586.7 3,268.0 3,852.6 -584.72016 2,416.3 2,668.7 -167.4 3,452.1 4,252.4 -697.3 3,314.9 3,980.6 -665.7

2016Q1 2,379.3 2,539.9 -160.6 3,400.9 4,108.5 -707.5 765.6 979.5 -213.92016Q2 2,388.9 2,573.8 -184.9 3,441.7 4,130.3 -688.5 710.6 956.1 -245.52016Q3 2,438.7 2,600.9 -162.2 3,486.3 4,165.3 -679.1 992.6 932.4 60.22016Q4 2,458.2 2,620.1 -161.9 3,479.4 4,193.3 -714.0 797.9 984.4 -186.52017Q1 2,465.2 2,645.1 -179.8 3,589.2 4,242.0 -652.8 740.8 950.6 -209.82017Q2 2,446.1 2,651.3 -205.2 3,556.4 4,198.3 -641.9 732.4 1049.4 -317.02017Q3 2,502.6 2,677.4 -174.8 3,604.2 4,235.5 -631.3 1034.7 1030.9 3.82016Q1 2,701.1 4,333.9 807.1 949.7 -142.6

Receipts and Outlays 36

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National Economic Trends - Government Reveues, Spending, and Debt

FederalDebt

FederalSurplus(+)/Deficit(-)

NIPA:Netgovernmentsaving.

ChangeinFederalDebt

PercentofGDP

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016

20001950 1975

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

TotalHeldbyPublic

(Per

cent)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BEA,CEA 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

PercentofGDP

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016

1950 1975 2000

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

-7.5

-2.5

2.5

UnifiedBudgetNIPA

(Per

cent)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BEA,CEA 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

PercentofGDP

Debt and Budgets 37

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National Economic Trends - Government Reveues, Spending, and Debt

FederalSurplus(+)/(-),UnifiedBasis

FederalGovernmentDebtHeldbyPublic HeldbyPrivateInvestors

TotalPublicDebt

HeldbyAgenciesandTrusts

TotalFederalReserveBanks

TotalForeign

andInternational

2014 17,824.1 5,039.3 12,784.8 2,767.3 10,333.2 6,069.22015 18,150.6 5,026.9 13,123.8 2,802.1 10,661.9 6,105.92016 19,573.4 5,395.7 14,177.8 2,830.1 11,709.9 6,158.12017 20,244.9 5,563.1 14,681.8 2,867.6 12,208.0 6,323.52014 March 17,601.2 4,982.0 12,643.2 2,614.6 10,299.7 5,948.3

June 17,632.6 5,060.6 12,572.0 2,705.9 10,171.6 6,018.7September 17,824.1 5,039.3 12,784.8 2,767.3 10,333.2 6,069.2December 18,141.4 5,117.6 13,023.8 2,793.4 10,562.6 6,157.7

2015 March 18,152.1 5,061.9 13,090.2 2,797.5 10,630.8 6,172.6June 18,152.0 5,077.0 13,075.0 2,798.5 10,615.5 6,163.1

September 18,150.6 5,026.9 13,123.8 2,802.1 10,661.9 6,105.9December 18,922.2 5,222.3 13,699.9 2,810.1 11,211.0 6,146.2

2016 March 19,264.9 5,335.2 13,929.8 2,815.3 11,463.6 6,286.5June 19,381.6 5,444.3 13,937.3 2,819.1 11,470.4 6,281.1

September 19,573.4 5,395.7 14,177.8 2,830.1 11,709.9 6,158.1December 19,976.8 5,537.5 14,439.3 2,843.7 11,971.3 6,006.3

2017 March 19,846.4 5,472.0 14,374.5 2,859.1 11,905.3 6,079.0June 19,844.6 5,473.7 14,370.9 2,864.1 11,901.1 6,171.6

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016

1960 1980 2000

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

-2.5

2.5

7.5

12.5

TotalHeldbyPublic

(Per

cent)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BEA,CEA 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Billionsofdollars,fiscalyears

20001995 2005 2010 2015

1925 1950 1975 2000

-1,600

-1,400

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600TotalExcludingInterestPayments

(Per

cent)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BEA,CEA 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Billionsofdollars,endofmonthorfiscalyearExcludesAgency-issueddebt

Debt and Budgets 38

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National Economic Trends - Government Reveues, Spending, and Debt

September 20,244.9 5,563.1 14,681.8 2,867.6 12,208.0 6,323.5

Debt and Budgets 39

Page 41: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - International Trade

C�rreutAccouut,TradeaudIuvestmeutIucomeBalauces

ExchaugeRates

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

2000 20102005 2015

-200

-160

-120

-80

-40

0

40

80

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

IuvestmeutIucome(leftscale)GoodsaudServices(leftscale)CurreutAccouut(rightscale)

(Billionsofdollars,quarterlyrate)

(PercentofGDP)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

1980 1990 2000 2010

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

80

120

160

60

100

140

180

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Yeu(rightscale)Ecu(rightscale)Euro(rightscale)MajorCurreucyIudex(leftscale)

(Index,March1973=100)

(Yen/US$,100x(EcuorEuro/US$0)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Exchange Rates and Trade 40

Page 42: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - International Trade

GoodsExportShares,2014

GoodsImportShares,2014

UuitedKiugom:3.80%UuitedKiugom:3.80%

Mexico:15.78%Mexico:15.78%

Chiua:7.94%Chiua:7.94%

Japau:4.34%Japau:4.34%

Germauy:3.39%Germauy:3.39%

Cauada:18.33%Cauada:18.33%

OtherOECD:16.17%OtherOECD:16.17%

Frauce:2.14%Frauce:2.14%

AllOther:28.11%AllOther:28.11%

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

UuitedKiugom:2.46%UuitedKiugom:2.46%

Mexico:13.32%Mexico:13.32%

Chiua:20.95%Chiua:20.95%

Japau:5.98%Japau:5.98%

Germauy:5.17%Germauy:5.17%Cauada:12.58%Cauada:12.58%

OtherOECD:14.77%OtherOECD:14.77%

Frauce:2.12%Frauce:2.12%

AllOther:22.66%AllOther:22.66%

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem(US) 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Exchange Rates and Trade 41

Page 43: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - International Trade

TradeBalance

GoodsTrade

Billionsofd ollars

Jan2016Oct2015 Apr2016 Jul2016 Oct2016 Jan2017 Apr2017 Jul2017 Oct2017

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

-70

-60

-50

-40

-75

-65

-55

-45

-35

GoodsandServicesGoods

(Billion

sofD

ollars)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

PercentChangefromayearago

Jan2016Oct2015 Apr2016 Jul2016 Oct2016 Jan2017 Apr2017 Jul2017 Oct2017

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

-10

0

10

-15

-5

5

15

ExportsImports

(PercentChangefromayearago)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

More Trade, International Growth Comparisons 42

Page 44: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - International Trade

CurrentAccountBalance

ServicesTrade

Billionsofdollars

2000 20102005 2015

-120

-100

-125

-115

-110

-105

Q12016 Q12017

(Billion

sofdollars)

CurrentAccountBalance

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

PercentChangefromayearago

Jan2016Oct2015 Apr2016 Jul2016 Oct2016 Jan2017 Apr2017 Jul2017 Oct2017

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

0

5

-2

-1

1

2

3

4

6

7

8

ExportsImports

(Percentch

angefrom

ayearago)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

More Trade, International Growth Comparisons 43

Page 45: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - International Trade

RealGDPGrowthofMajorTradingPartners:UnitedKingdom

RealGDPGrowthofMajorTradingPartners:Germany

Compoundannualratesofchange

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Q12016 Q12017

(Percent)

UnitedKingdom

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Compoundannualratesofchange

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Q12016 Q12017

(Percent)

Germany

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

More Trade, International Growth Comparisons 44

Page 46: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - International Trade

RealGDPGrowthofMajorTradingPartners:Canada

RealGDPGrowthofMajorTradingPartners:France

Compoundannualratesofchange

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0

5

-1

1

2

3

4

Q12016 Q12017

(Percent)

Canada

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Compoundannualratesofchange

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0.0

-0.5

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Q12016 Q12017

(Percent)

France

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

More Trade, International Growth Comparisons 45

Page 47: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - International Trade

RealGDPGrowthofMajorTradingPartners:Japan

RealGDPGrowthofMajorTradingPartners:Mexico

Compoundannualratesofchange

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

0.0

-1.0

-0.5

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Q12016 Q12017

(Percent)

Japan

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Compoundannualratesofchange

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

0

5

-2

-1

1

2

3

4

6

Q12016 Q12017

(Percent)

Mexico

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

More Trade, International Growth Comparisons 46

Page 48: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Productivity and Profits

OutputperHourandCapacityUtilization,Manufacturing

NonfarmCompensationperHour

Percentchangefromayearago(Right)/Percent(Left)

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016

1980 1990 2000 2010

60

90

66

72

78

84

96

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0UtilizationRate(level)(rightscale)Output/Hour(leftscale)

PercentofCapacity

(Perce

ntch

angefr

oma

yearag

o)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Percentchangefromayearago

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0RealNominal

(Perce

ntch

angefr

oma

yearag

o)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Productivity, Capacity Utilization, and Compensation 46

Page 49: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Productivity and Profits

OutputperHour,NonfarmBuisnessandNonfinancialCorporationsPercentchangefromayearago

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0

5

-2

-1

1

2

3

4

6

7

8

NonfarmBuisnessSectorNomfinancialCorporations

(Perce

ntch

angefr

oma

yearag

o)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Productivity, Capacity Utilization, and Compensation 47

Page 50: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Productivity and Profits

NoufarmOuputPerHour

ManufacturingOutputperHour

Compoundedannualratesofchange

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0

-3

-2

-1

1

2

3

Q12016Q12015 Q12017

Comp

ound

edA

nnua

lRat

eofC

hang

e

NonfarmOuputperhour

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Compoundedannualratesofchange

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

Q12015 Q12016 Q12017

Comp

ound

edA

nnua

lRat

eofC

hang

e

ManufacturingOuputperHour

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Productivity, Shares of National Income, and Profits 48

Page 51: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Productivity and Profits

SelectedComponentSharesofNationalIncome

CorporateProfits(withIVAandCCAdj)

Percent

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016

1960 1980 2000

10

15

7

8

9

11

12

13

14

60

62

64

66

68

61

63

65

67

Proprietors'Income(leftscale)CorporateProfits(leftscale)

Compensation(rightscale)

(Perce

nt) (Percent)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

PercentofGDP

2000 20101994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13Profits(AfterTax)Profits(BeforeTax)

(Perce

ntof

GDP

)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Productivity, Shares of National Income, and Profits 49

Page 52: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - FOMC Economic Projections

ChangeinRealGDP(Q4/Q4)

UnemploymentRate(Q4)

Percent

Jan2015 Jan2020Jan2012 Jan2013 Jan2014 Jan2016 Jan2017 Jan2018 Jan20191.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

FOMCSummaryofEconomicProjectionsfortheGrowthRateofRealGrossDomesticProduct,Range,MidpointGrossDomesticProduct

LongRun

(Percent

)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BEA,St.LouisFed 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Percent

Jan2015 Jan2020Jan2011 Jan2012 Jan2013 Jan2014 Jan2016 Jan2017 Jan2018 Jan20193

4

5

6

7

8

9

FOMCSummaryofEconomicProjectionsfortheCivilianUnemploymentRate,Range,MidpointUnemploymentRate

LongRun

(Percent

)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BEA,St.LouisFed,UnivofMichigan 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Feb 2018 Projections 50

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National Economic Trends - FOMC Economic Projections

ChangeinPCEPriceIndex(Q4/Q4)

ChangeinPCEPriceIndexExludingFoodandEnergyPrices(Q4/Q4)

Percent

Jan2015 Jan2020Jan2012 Jan2013 Jan2014 Jan2016 Jan2017 Jan2018 Jan20190.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

FOMCSummaryofEconomicProjectionsforthePersonalConsumptionExpendituresInflationRate,Range,MidpointPCE

LongRun

(Percent

)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BEA,St.LouisFed,UnivofMichigan 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Percent

Jan2015 Jan2020Jan2012 Jan2013 Jan2014 Jan2016 Jan2017 Jan2018 Jan20191.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4FOMCSummaryofEconomicProjectionsforthePersonalConsumptionExpenditureslessFoodandEnergyInflationRate,Range,MidpointPCECore

(Percent

)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Sources:BEA,St.LouisFed,UnivofMichigan 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Feb 2018 Projections 51

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National Economic Trends - FOMC Economic Projections

ChangeinRealGDPfor2016

ChangeinRealGDPfor2017

Percent

9-2014 12-2015 3-2015 6-2015 9-2015 12-2016 3-2016 6-2016 9-2016 12-2017 3-2017 6-2017 9-2017

Jan'15 Jul'15 Jan'16 Jul'16 Jan'17 Jul'17

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

Median

(Per

cent)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Percent

9-2015 12-2016 3-2016 6-2016 9-2016 12-2017 3-2017 6-2017 9-2017

Jan'16 May'16 Sep'16 Jan'17 May'17

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

Median

(Perce

nt)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Current and Following Year Projections: A Timeline 52

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National Economic Trends - FOMC Economic Projections

UnemploymentRatefor2016(Q4)

UnemploymentRatefor2017(Q4)

Percent

9-2014 12-2015 3-2015 6-2015 9-2015 12-2016 3-2016 6-2016 9-2016 12-2017 3-2017 6-2017 9-2017

Jan'15 Jul'15 Jan'16 Jul'16 Jan'17 Jul'17

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

Median

(Per

cent)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Percent

9-2015 12-2016 3-2016 6-2016 9-2016 12-2017 3-2017 6-2017 9-2017

Jan'16 May'16 Sep'16 Jan'17 May'17

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

Median

(Perce

nt)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Current and Following Year Projections: A Timeline 53

Page 56: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - FOMC Economic Projections

ChangeinPCEPriceIndexfor2016

ChangeinPCEPriceIndexfor2017

Percent

9-2014 12-2015 3-2015 6-2015 9-2015 12-2016 3-2016 6-2016 9-2016 12-2017 3-2017 6-2017 9-2017

Jan'15 Jul'15 Jan'16 Jul'16 Jan'17 Jul'17

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

Median

(Per

cent)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Percent

9-2015 12-2016 3-2016 6-2016 9-2016 12-2017 3-2017 6-2017 9-2017

Jan'16 May'16 Sep'16 Jan'17 May'17

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

Median

(Perce

nt)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Current and Following Year Projections: A Timeline 54

Page 57: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - FOMC Economic Projections

ChangeinPCECorePriceIndexfor2016

ChangeinPCECorePriceIndexfor2017

Percent

9-2014 12-2015 3-2015 6-2015 9-2015 12-2016 3-2016 6-2016 9-2016 12-2017 3-2017 6-2017 9-2017

Jan'15 Jul'15 Jan'16 Jul'16 Jan'17 Jul'17

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

Median

(Per

cent)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Percent

9-2015 12-2016 3-2016 6-2016 9-2016 12-2017 3-2017 6-2017 9-2017

Jan'16 May'16 Sep'16 Jan'17 May'17

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

Median

(Perce

nt)

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Current and Following Year Projections: A Timeline 55

Page 58: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Real GDP Nowcast©

St.LouisFedEconomicNewsIndex:RealGDPNowcast©

St.LouisFed’sEconomicNewsIndex(ENI)useseconomiccontentfromkeymonthlyeconomicdatareleasestoforecastthegrowthofrealGDPduringthatquarter.Ingeneral,themost-currentobservationisrevisedmultipletimesthroughoutthequarter.Thefinalforecastedvalue(beforetheBEA’sreleaseoftheadvanceestimateofGDP)isthestatic,historicalvalueforthatquarter.Formoreinformation,see,Grover,SeanP.;Kliesen,KevinL.;andMcCracken,

MichaelW.“AMacroeconomicNewsIndexforConstructingNowcastsofU.S.RealGrossDomesticProductGrowth",

RevisedWeeklyPredictionsfortheFourthQuarter,1969

1:00:00.000

1.0

2.0

1.5

Inde

x

FourthQuarter,1969Forecasts

ShadedareasindicateU.S.recessions Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis 2018fred.stlouisfed.org

Real GDP Nowcast© 56

Page 59: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Quick Reference Tables

NominalGDP RealGDP FinalSalesChangein

PrivateInventoriesPercentChange PercentChange PercentChange Billionsof2009$

Billionsof$

Annualrate

Yearago

Billionsof2009$

Annualrate

Yearago

Billionsof2009$

Annualrate

Yearago Lastqtr Year/yearago

2014 17427.6 4.4 16013.283 2.6 15932.905 2.7 67.7772015 18120.7 4.0 16471.516 2.9 16354.301 2.6 100.5492016 18624.5 2.8 16716.164 1.5 16664.085 1.9 33.3652017 19386.8 4.1 0.000 0.0 0.000 0.0 0.0002014 1 17031.3 0.7 3.4 15757.570 -0.9 1.7 15707.413 0.8 1.8 38.720 75.980

2 17320.9 7.0 4.7 15935.825 4.6 2.7 15852.340 3.7 2.5 69.897 80.3073 17622.3 7.1 5.2 16139.513 5.2 3.2 16040.283 4.8 3.4 85.584 74.4494 17735.9 2.6 4.3 16220.222 2.0 2.7 16131.585 2.3 2.9 76.905 67.777

2015 1 17874.7 3.2 5.0 16349.970 3.2 3.8 16202.291 1.8 3.2 132.216 91.1512 18093.2 5.0 4.5 16460.889 2.7 3.3 16338.632 3.4 3.1 105.559 100.0663 18227.7 3.0 3.4 16527.587 1.6 2.4 16414.142 1.9 2.3 96.212 102.7234 18287.2 1.3 3.1 16547.619 0.5 2.0 16462.138 1.2 2.0 68.208 100.549

2016 1 18325.2 0.8 2.5 16571.573 0.6 1.4 16512.674 1.2 1.9 40.601 77.6452 18538.0 4.7 2.5 16663.516 2.2 1.2 16632.600 2.9 1.8 12.202 54.3063 18729.1 4.2 2.8 16778.148 2.8 1.5 16741.079 2.6 2.0 17.597 34.6524 18905.5 3.8 3.4 16851.420 1.8 1.8 16769.987 0.7 1.9 63.059 33.365

2017 1 19057.7 3.3 4.0 16903.240 1.2 2.0 16883.467 2.7 2.2 1.172 23.5082 19250.0 4.1 3.8 17031.085 3.1 2.2 17006.646 3.0 2.2 5.498 21.8323 19500.6 5.3 4.14 19738.9 5.0 4.4

Consumption DurablesConsumption PrivateFixedInvestment

ChangeinNon-ResidentialFixedInvestment

PercentChange PercentChange PercentChange PercentChangeBillions

of$Annual

rateYearago

Billionsof2009$

Annualrate

Yearago

Billionsof2009$

Annualrate

Yearago

Billionsof2009$

Annualrate

Yearago

2014 10868.4 2.9 1403.087 6.9 2677.274 6.2 2172.679 6.92015 11264.3 3.6 1511.824 7.7 2782.739 3.9 2223.533 2.32016 11572.1 2.7 1595.081 5.5 2803.446 0.7 2210.419 -0.62017 11888.9 2.7 1702.139 6.7 0.000 0.0 0.000 0.02014 1 10713.4 1.9 2.0 1350.926 5.5 4.1 2599.376 5.1 4.7 2112.552 7.2 5.3

2 10805.1 3.5 2.7 1393.556 13.2 6.9 2663.000 10.2 6.1 2160.631 9.4 7.03 10909.9 3.9 3.2 1419.647 7.7 7.8 2722.479 9.2 7.7 2215.096 10.5 9.14 11045.2 5.1 3.6 1448.219 8.3 8.7 2724.240 0.3 6.1 2202.437 -2.3 6.1

2015 1 11145.3 3.7 4.0 1475.573 7.8 9.2 2751.522 4.1 5.9 2214.696 2.2 4.82 11227.9 3.0 3.9 1506.305 8.6 8.1 2783.390 4.7 4.5 2230.697 2.9 3.23 11304.6 2.8 3.6 1524.853 5.0 7.4 2806.596 3.4 3.1 2238.798 1.5 1.14 11379.3 2.7 3.0 1540.563 4.2 6.4 2789.447 -2.4 2.4 2209.941 -5.1 0.3

2016 1 11430.5 1.8 2.6 1544.395 1.0 4.7 2787.837 -0.2 1.3 2187.499 -4.0 -1.22 11537.7 3.8 2.8 1576.170 8.5 4.6 2797.464 1.4 0.5 2205.321 3.3 -1.13 11618.1 2.8 2.8 1611.891 9.4 5.7 2808.150 1.5 0.1 2223.993 3.4 -0.74 11702.1 2.9 2.8 1647.868 9.2 7.0 2820.331 1.7 1.1 2224.864 0.2 0.7

2017 1 11758.0 1.9 2.9 1647.313 -0.1 6.7 2875.663 8.1 3.2 2263.637 7.2 3.52 11853.0 3.3 2.7 1677.793 7.6 6.4 2898.459 3.2 3.6 2300.598 6.7 4.33 11916.6 2.2 2.6 1712.859 8.6 6.34 12028.1 3.8 2.8 1770.591 14.2 7.4

GDP, Final Sales, Private Inventories, Consumption, and Investment 57

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National Economic Trends - Quick Reference Tables

GDPChainPriceIndex

EmploymentCostIndex ECI:Wages ECI:Benefits

PercentChange PercentChange PercentChange PercentChange

Index Annualrate

Yearago Index Annual

rateYearago Index Annual

rateYearago Index Annual

rateYearago

2014 108.839 1.8 121.2 2.0 120.6 2.0 122.7 2.32015 110.012 1.1 123.8 2.1 123.3 2.2 124.7 1.62016 111.419 1.3 126.4 2.1 126.2 2.4 126.7 1.62017 113.427 1.8 129.5 2.5 129.5 2.6 129.5 2.22014 1 108.103 1.6 1.7 119.9 1.0 1.7 119.4 1.0 1.7 121.3 1.7 1.8

2 108.694 2.2 2.0 120.9 3.4 2.0 120.2 2.7 1.9 122.6 4.4 2.43 109.200 1.9 1.9 121.7 2.7 2.3 121.1 3.0 2.3 123.2 2.0 2.44 109.359 0.6 1.6 122.3 2.0 2.3 121.7 2.0 2.2 123.8 2.0 2.5

2015 1 109.322 -0.1 1.1 123.2 3.0 2.8 122.6 3.0 2.7 124.5 2.3 2.62 109.921 2.2 1.1 123.2 0.0 1.9 122.8 0.7 2.2 124.2 -1.0 1.33 110.298 1.4 1.0 124.0 2.6 1.9 123.6 2.6 2.1 124.8 1.9 1.34 110.507 0.8 1.0 124.6 1.9 1.9 124.3 2.3 2.1 125.3 1.6 1.2

2016 1 110.588 0.3 1.2 125.4 2.6 1.8 125.1 2.6 2.0 125.9 1.9 1.12 111.257 2.4 1.2 126.1 2.3 2.4 126.0 2.9 2.6 126.4 1.6 1.83 111.641 1.4 1.2 126.7 1.9 2.2 126.6 1.9 2.4 127.0 1.9 1.84 112.190 2.0 1.5 127.3 1.9 2.2 127.2 1.9 2.3 127.5 1.6 1.8

2017 1 112.752 2.0 2.0 128.3 3.2 2.3 128.3 3.5 2.6 128.3 2.5 1.92 113.037 1.0 1.6 129.0 2.2 2.3 129.0 2.2 2.4 129.1 2.5 2.13 113.626 2.1 1.8 130.0 3.1 2.6 129.9 2.8 2.6 130.0 2.8 2.44 114.291 2.4 1.9 130.6 1.9 2.6 130.7 2.5 2.8 130.5 1.5 2.4

Exports ImportsNonfarm

OutputperHourNonfarm

CompensationperHourPercentChange PercentChange PercentChange PercentChange

Billionsof2009$

Annualrate

Yearago

Billionsof2005$

Annualrate

Yearago Index Annual

rateYearago Index Annual

rateYearago

2014 2118.37 4.3 2546.054 4.5 105.682 1.0 111.253 2.92015 2127.05 0.4 2672.350 5.0 106.997 1.2 114.711 3.12016 2120.06 -0.3 2706.309 1.3 106.995 -0.0 115.988 1.12017 0.00 0.0 0.000 0.0 108.327 1.2 117.669 1.42014 1 2075.76 -2.4 4.3 2486.757 5.0 3.4 104.774 -3.4 0.5 110.986 6.8 4.0

2 2121.80 9.2 5.3 2547.962 10.2 4.6 105.386 2.4 1.2 110.297 -2.5 1.93 2125.11 0.6 4.6 2541.770 -1.0 3.9 106.530 4.4 1.9 111.166 3.2 2.44 2150.80 4.9 3.0 2607.725 10.8 6.2 106.037 -1.8 0.3 112.563 5.1 3.1

2015 1 2126.38 -4.5 2.4 2650.521 6.7 6.6 106.748 2.7 1.9 113.490 3.3 2.32 2145.78 3.7 1.1 2671.995 3.3 4.9 107.081 1.3 1.6 114.485 3.6 3.83 2124.13 -4.0 -0.0 2683.435 1.7 5.6 107.426 1.3 0.8 114.805 1.1 3.34 2111.93 -2.3 -1.8 2683.450 0.0 2.9 106.732 -2.6 0.7 116.062 4.5 3.1

2016 1 2098.08 -2.6 -1.3 2682.298 -0.2 1.2 106.417 -1.2 -0.3 114.945 -3.8 1.32 2112.50 2.8 -1.6 2684.905 0.4 0.5 106.638 0.8 -0.4 116.294 4.8 1.63 2145.28 6.4 1.0 2702.569 2.7 0.7 107.295 2.5 -0.1 117.026 2.5 1.94 2124.38 -3.8 0.6 2755.464 8.1 2.7 107.630 1.3 0.8 115.685 -4.5 -0.3

2017 1 2162.30 7.3 3.1 2784.515 4.3 3.8 107.664 0.1 1.2 117.080 4.9 1.92 2181.15 3.5 3.2 2794.781 1.5 4.1 108.069 1.5 1.3 117.169 0.3 0.8

2014 1 108.803 2.7 1.4 117.943 2.7 0.82 108.772 -0.1 1.1 118.482 1.8 2.4

GDP Price Index, Employment Cost Index, Trade, Productivity, and Compensation 59

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National Economic Trends - Quick Reference Tables

Ho�seholdSnrveryEmployment NonfarmPayrollEmployment NonfarmAggregateHonrsPercentChange PercentChange PercentChange

Thousands Change Annualrate

Yearago Thousands Change Annual

rateYearago Index Monthly

rateAnnualrate

Yearago

2013 143941 1466 1.0 136369 2197 1.6 106.1 1.82014 146317 2376 1.7 138937 2568 1.9 108.5 2.32015 148845 2528 1.7 141819 2882 2.1 110.9 2.22016 151440 2595 1.7 144349 2530 1.8 112.6 1.52017 153337 1897 1.3 146623 2274 1.6 114.9 2.02015 1 148129 663 1.8 1.9 140796 685 2.0 2.2 110.1 0.4 1.5 2.9

2 148700 571 1.6 1.9 141500 704 2.0 2.1 110.4 0.3 1.1 1.93 148925 225 0.6 1.6 142131 631 1.8 2.0 111.1 0.6 2.6 1.84 149625 700 1.9 1.5 142849 718 2.0 2.0 111.8 0.6 2.5 1.9

2016 1 150937 1312 3.6 1.9 143446 597 1.7 1.9 112.1 0.3 1.1 1.82 151063 126 0.3 1.6 143980 534 1.5 1.8 112.3 0.2 0.7 1.73 151662 599 1.6 1.8 144711 731 2.0 1.8 112.7 0.4 1.4 1.44 152099 437 1.2 1.7 145260 549 1.5 1.7 113.4 0.6 2.5 1.4

2017 1 152550 451 1.2 1.1 145854 594 1.6 1.7 114.0 0.5 2.1 1.72 153101 551 1.5 1.3 146327 473 1.3 1.6 114.7 0.6 2.5 2.13 153769 668 1.8 1.4 146880 553 1.5 1.5 115.0 0.3 1.1 2.04 153928 159 0.4 1.2 147431 551 1.5 1.5 115.8 0.7 2.8 2.1

2018 1 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02016 Jan 150576 441 3.6 1.7 143196 103 0.9 1.9 112.4 0.1 1.1 2.3

Feb 151005 429 3.5 2.0 143453 257 2.2 1.8 111.9 -0.4 -5.2 1.6Mar 151229 224 1.8 2.1 143688 235 2.0 2.0 112.1 0.2 2.2 1.7Apr 150978 -251 -2.0 1.7 143862 174 1.5 1.9 112.2 0.1 1.1 1.9May 151048 70 0.6 1.5 143896 34 0.3 1.7 112.2 0.0 0.0 1.6Jun 151164 116 0.9 1.6 144181 285 2.4 1.7 112.4 0.2 2.2 1.4Jul 151484 320 2.6 1.8 144506 325 2.7 1.8 112.7 0.3 3.3 1.5Aug 151687 203 1.6 1.7 144681 175 1.5 1.8 112.5 -0.2 -2.1 1.3Sep 151815 128 1.0 2.0 144945 264 2.2 1.9 113.0 0.4 5.5 1.5Oct 151939 124 1.0 1.8 145085 140 1.2 1.7 113.2 0.2 2.1 1.5Nov 152126 187 1.5 1.8 145257 172 1.4 1.7 113.3 0.1 1.1 1.4Dec 152233 107 0.8 1.4 145437 180 1.5 1.6 113.6 0.3 3.2 1.2

2017 Jan 152076 -157 -1.2 1.0 145696 259 2.2 1.7 113.8 0.2 2.1 1.2Feb 152511 435 3.5 1.0 145896 200 1.7 1.7 114.0 0.2 2.1 1.9Mar 153064 553 4.4 1.2 145969 73 0.6 1.6 114.1 0.1 1.1 1.8Apr 153161 97 0.8 1.4 146144 175 1.4 1.6 114.6 0.4 5.4 2.1May 152892 -269 -2.1 1.2 146299 155 1.3 1.7 114.4 -0.2 -2.1 2.0Jun 153250 358 2.8 1.4 146538 239 2.0 1.6 115.0 0.5 6.5 2.3Jul 153511 261 2.1 1.3 146728 190 1.6 1.5 115.1 0.1 1.0 2.1Aug 153471 -40 -0.3 1.2 146949 221 1.8 1.6 115.0 -0.1 -1.0 2.2Sep 154324 853 6.9 1.7 146963 14 0.1 1.4 115.0 0.0 0.0 1.8Oct 153846 -478 -3.7 1.3 147234 271 2.2 1.5 115.6 0.5 6.4 2.1Nov 153917 71 0.6 1.2 147450 216 1.8 1.5 115.8 0.2 2.1 2.2Dec 154021 104 0.8 1.2 147610 160 1.3 1.5 115.9 0.1 1.0 2.0

2018 Jan 154430 409 3.2 1.5 147810 200 1.6 1.5 115.8 -0.1 -1.0 1.8

Employment and Nonfarm Aggregate Hours 61

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National Economic Trends - Quick Reference Tables

Unempl.Rate RetailandFoodServicesSales IndustrialProduction

TreasuryYields

PercentChange PercentChange (Percent)Billions

ofDollarsMonthly/quarterly

Annualrate

Yearago Index Monthly/

quarterlyAnnual

rateYearago 3-mo 10-yr

2013 7.4 5002.211 3.8 101.9753 2.0 0.06 2.352014 6.2 5211.494 4.2 105.1294 3.1 0.03 2.542015 5.3 5347.338 2.6 104.3840 -0.7 0.05 2.142016 4.9 5504.773 2.9 103.1058 -1.2 0.32 1.842017 4.4 5759.405 4.6 105.1315 2.0 0.93 2.332016 1 4.9 1350.654 -0.1 -0.4 2.9 103.0923 -0.3 -1.3 -2.2 0.29 1.92

2 4.9 1370.547 1.5 6.0 2.7 102.9166 -0.2 -0.7 -1.3 0.26 1.753 4.9 1382.987 0.9 3.7 2.6 103.1177 0.2 0.8 -1.2 0.30 1.564 4.7 1400.585 1.3 5.2 3.6 103.2965 0.2 0.7 -0.1 0.43 2.13

2017 1 4.7 1420.196 1.4 5.7 5.1 103.6924 0.4 1.5 0.6 0.59 2.442 4.3 1423.795 0.3 1.0 3.9 105.1225 1.4 5.6 2.1 0.89 2.263 4.3 1439.478 1.1 4.5 4.1 104.7962 -0.3 -1.2 1.6 1.04 2.244 4.1 1475.936 2.5 10.5 5.4 106.9150 2.0 8.3 3.5 1.21 2.37

2018 1 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.002015 Dec 5.0 448.171 -1.0 -11.5 2.8 103.4822 0.5 6.8 -2.0 0.26 2.092016 Jan 4.9 451.209 0.7 8.4 3.9 103.2685 -0.2 -2.5 -2.1 0.31 1.78

Feb 4.9 451.274 0.0 0.2 2.0 102.5263 -0.7 -8.3 -2.4 0.29 1.89Mar 5.0 454.231 0.7 8.2 2.7 102.8697 0.3 4.1 -1.7 0.23 1.81Apr 5.0 455.753 0.3 4.1 2.1 102.7552 -0.1 -1.3 -1.5 0.27 1.81May 4.7 460.563 1.1 13.4 3.2 103.1249 0.4 4.4 -0.8 0.27 1.64Jun 4.9 459.744 -0.2 -2.1 2.3 103.2173 0.1 1.1 -1.2 0.30 1.50Jul 4.9 460.198 0.1 1.2 2.4 103.1459 -0.1 -0.8 -1.3 0.30 1.56Aug 4.9 463.045 0.6 7.7 3.0 102.9898 -0.2 -1.8 -1.2 0.29 1.63Sep 5.0 465.977 0.6 7.9 3.9 103.1742 0.2 2.2 -0.8 0.33 1.76Oct 4.9 465.668 -0.1 -0.8 3.4 102.9478 -0.2 -2.6 -0.4 0.45 2.14Nov 4.6 468.94 0.7 8.8 3.6 103.7675 0.8 10.0 0.8 0.51 2.49Dec 4.7 474.692 1.2 15.8 5.9 103.4572 -0.3 -3.5 -0.0 0.51 2.43

2017 Jan 4.8 472.513 -0.5 -5.4 4.7 103.7038 0.2 2.9 0.4 0.52 2.42Feb 4.7 472.991 0.1 1.2 4.8 103.9162 0.2 2.5 1.4 0.74 2.48Mar 4.5 474.547 0.3 4.0 4.5 105.0468 1.1 13.9 2.1 0.80 2.30Apr 4.4 474.76 0.0 0.5 4.2 105.0682 0.0 0.2 2.3 0.89 2.30May 4.3 474.488 -0.1 -0.7 3.0 105.2526 0.2 2.1 2.1 0.98 2.19Jun 4.3 476.752 0.5 5.9 3.7 105.0086 -0.2 -2.7 1.7 1.07 2.32Jul 4.3 476.513 -0.1 -0.6 3.5 104.5605 -0.4 -5.0 1.4 1.01 2.21Aug 4.4 486.213 2.0 27.4 5.0 104.8195 0.2 3.0 1.8 1.03 2.20Sep 4.2 489.468 0.7 8.3 5.0 106.5818 1.7 22.1 3.3 1.07 2.36Oct 4.1 493.168 0.8 9.5 5.9 106.8643 0.3 3.2 3.8 1.23 2.35Nov 4.1 493.3 0.0 0.3 5.2 107.2989 0.4 5.0 3.4 1.32 2.40Dec 4.1 492.003 -0.3 -3.1 3.6 107.2433 -0.1 -0.6 3.7 1.41 2.58

2018 Jan 4.1 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00

Unemployment Rate, Retail and Food Services Sales, Industrial Production, and Treasury Yields 63

Page 63: National Economic Trends Real GDP Growth · National Economic Trends - Output and Growth Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Real Change in Private Inventories Percent change from a year

National Economic Trends - Quick Reference Tables

Co�s�merPriceIndexConsumerPriceIndexlessFoodandEnergy

ProducerPriceIndexFinalDemand

PercentChange PercentChange PercentChange

Index Monthly/quarterly

Annualrate

Yearago Index Monthly/

quarterlyAnnualrate

Yearago Index Monthly/

quarterlyAnnualrate

Yearago

2014 236.707 1.6 237.901 1.7 110.9 1.62015 236.993 0.1 242.252 1.8 109.9 -0.92016 240.006 1.3 247.607 2.2 110.4 0.52017 245.139 2.1 252.173 1.8 113.0 2.42016 1 237.848 -0.0 -0.1 1.1 245.609 0.6 2.3 2.2 109.8 0.2 0.7 0.0

2 239.452 0.7 2.7 1.1 246.985 0.6 2.3 2.2 110.2 0.4 1.5 0.23 240.548 0.5 1.8 1.1 248.309 0.5 2.2 2.2 110.5 0.3 1.1 0.34 242.177 0.7 2.7 1.8 249.526 0.5 2.0 2.2 111.1 0.5 2.2 1.4

2017 1 243.949 0.7 3.0 2.6 250.884 0.5 2.2 2.1 112.0 0.8 3.3 2.02 244.010 0.0 0.1 1.9 251.382 0.2 0.8 1.8 112.6 0.5 2.2 2.23 245.297 0.5 2.1 2.0 252.534 0.5 1.8 1.7 113.1 0.4 1.8 2.44 247.301 0.8 3.3 2.1 253.891 0.5 2.2 1.7 114.3 1.1 4.3 2.9

2018 1 0.000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02016 Jan 237.990 0.1 0.8 1.3 245.134 0.2 2.7 2.2 110.0 0.5 5.6 -0.1

Feb 237.532 -0.2 -2.3 1.0 245.689 0.2 2.8 2.3 109.7 -0.3 -3.2 0.1Mar 238.022 0.2 2.5 0.9 246.004 0.1 1.5 2.2 109.6 -0.1 -1.1 -0.1Apr 238.843 0.3 4.2 1.1 246.487 0.2 2.4 2.1 109.8 0.2 2.2 0.2May 239.439 0.2 3.0 1.0 247.031 0.2 2.7 2.2 110.1 0.3 3.3 0.0Jun 240.074 0.3 3.2 1.0 247.436 0.2 2.0 2.2 110.6 0.5 5.6 0.2Jul 240.058 -0.0 -0.1 0.9 247.812 0.2 1.8 2.2 110.6 0.0 0.0 0.1Aug 240.569 0.2 2.6 1.1 248.400 0.2 2.9 2.3 110.3 -0.3 -3.2 0.0Sep 241.017 0.2 2.3 1.5 248.716 0.1 1.5 2.2 110.6 0.3 3.3 0.7Oct 241.667 0.3 3.3 1.6 249.064 0.1 1.7 2.2 110.9 0.3 3.3 1.2Nov 242.081 0.2 2.1 1.7 249.519 0.2 2.2 2.1 111.0 0.1 1.1 1.2Dec 242.784 0.3 3.5 2.1 249.996 0.2 2.3 2.2 111.4 0.4 4.4 1.7

2017 Jan 244.028 0.5 6.3 2.5 250.661 0.3 3.2 2.3 112.0 0.5 6.7 1.8Feb 244.102 0.0 0.4 2.8 251.088 0.2 2.1 2.2 111.9 -0.1 -1.1 2.0Mar 243.717 -0.2 -1.9 2.4 250.904 -0.1 -0.9 2.0 112.0 0.1 1.1 2.2Apr 244.087 0.2 1.8 2.2 251.125 0.1 1.1 1.9 112.5 0.4 5.5 2.5May 243.911 -0.1 -0.9 1.9 251.331 0.1 1.0 1.7 112.6 0.1 1.1 2.3Jun 244.032 0.0 0.6 1.6 251.690 0.1 1.7 1.7 112.7 0.1 1.1 1.9Jul 244.236 0.1 1.0 1.7 252.050 0.1 1.7 1.7 112.8 0.1 1.1 2.0Aug 245.262 0.4 5.2 2.0 252.610 0.2 2.7 1.7 113.1 0.3 3.2 2.5Sep 246.392 0.5 5.7 2.2 252.943 0.1 1.6 1.7 113.4 0.3 3.2 2.5Oct 246.583 0.1 0.9 2.0 253.484 0.2 2.6 1.8 114.0 0.5 6.5 2.8Nov 247.411 0.3 4.1 2.2 253.791 0.1 1.5 1.7 114.4 0.4 4.3 3.1Dec 247.910 0.2 2.4 2.1 254.398 0.2 2.9 1.8 114.4 0.0 0.0 2.7

2018 Jan 249.245 0.5 6.7 2.1 255.287 0.3 4.3 1.8 114.9 0.4 5.4 2.6

CPI and PPI 65