platts oil and gas forum july 2013

7/22/2019 Platts Oil and Gas Forum July 2013

1/23

DEPARTMENT OF

ENERGY

Zenaida Y. MonsadaDirector, Oil Industry Management Bureau

Platts Forum onOil & Gas, Biofuels, and Coal

EDSA Shangrila, Mandaluyong, MM

09 July 2013

Philippine Oil & Gas Industry


2/23

2

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

Regulatory Framework

Energy Situation

Oil Situation

Alternative Fuels

DOE Initiatives/Program


3/23

Oil & GasIndustry

RA 7638

DOE ActBP 33: OilRegulation

RA 8479:Oil Deregulation

RA 8749:Clean Air

RA 9367:Biofuels

RA 9513:Renewable Energy

RA 9337:Value-Added Tax

ExecutiveOrders: Duty

RA 8184:Excise Tax

Revenue

Regulations

Department

Circulars

Administrative

Orders

REGULATORY FRAMEWORK Oil Industry


4/23

REGULATORY FRAMEWORKRole of DOE units

Oil Industry Management

Bureau

Monitoring of Fuels & blends

Quality

QuantityRefining/ marketing process

Inventory

Pricing

Additives Registration

Fuel Quality Standard Setting*

Petroleum Facilities Standard

Setting

Regulate as necessary

Renewable EnergyManagement Bureau

Accreditation of BiofuelsProducers

Monitoring of Biofuels Producers

Secretariat for the NationalBiofuels Board

Energy Research & TestingLaboratory

Testing of Samples

Legal Services

Processes findings of violations

** considers DENR DAO on Euro-4 by 2015


5/23

Duty (%) Excise Tax (P/l) VAT (%)

EO 890 RA 8184 RA 9537

Crude oil 0 - 12

Products

gasoline 0 4.35 12

diesel 0 0 12

kerosene 0 0 12

jet fuel 0 3.67 12

bunker fuel 0 0 12

LPG 0 0 12

Bioethanol EO 449 RA 9153 RA 9537

- imported 1 0 12

- local - 0 0

Biodiesel RA 9153 RA 9537

- local only - 0 0

REGULATORY FRAMEWORK - Taxation


6/23

Power Generat ion Mix

6

Note:* Preliminary

Primary Energy Mix

ENERGY MIX


7/23

Industrial Consumer /

End User Tank Truck

Tank TruckTankers/Barges

Retail Outlet

Refinery

Depot/Terminal

White Oil Pipeline Black Oil Pipeline

Product Imports

Product Exports

Refinery/Import/Export Terminal

Crude

Imports

PRYCE NATIONPETRONAS

LPG Retail

E100

E98

E10

DOWNSTREAM OIL SECTOR


8/23

Production (164.7 MBCD)/Demand (303.3 MBCD)

AVTURBO8.9 10.2

14.3 19.0

KEROSENE1.2 0.9

DIESEL37.5 42.0

FUEL OIL19.0 11.3

REGULAR5.6 .4.3

6.6 1.1

LPG

PREMIUM

6.8 11.2

CRUDE

OTHERS

CUT OF THE BARREL (Oil Mix 2012, in %)


9/23

0

50

100

150

00

50

00

50

00

50

00

Refining Cap. Demand Production Imports Exports

38.5%

24.4%

9.9%

27.2%

Pe tron She ll C he vron Other P laye rs

Market share

39.1%

37.4%

3.9%

11.4%8.2%

NCR N. Luzon S. Luzon

Visayas Mindanao

Demand By Region

PETROLEUM SUPPLY vs. DEMAND (MBCD)


10/23

LUZON

VISAYAS

MINDANAO

New Players Number Flying V 271

Total Phils. 162

Unioil 31

Seaoil 174

Jetti 71PTT/SBDI 48

Eastern 31

City Oil 9

Metro Oil Subic 14

Uno Fuel 15Nation Petroleum 8

USA 88 8

Filoil Gas Co.Inc 56

Phoenix 162

Independent 650TOTAL 1,710

As of 2Q2012

08.22.2012

Total = 4,997

1,031

786

3,180

GASOLINE STATIONS (2012, Number)


11/23

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Demand Imports Production Total Products Demand

Demand by Region

Market Share

LPG SUPPLY vs. DEMAND (MBCD)

NCR

39.0%

N. Luzon

21.3%

S. Luzon

20.1%

Visayas

11.4%

Mindanao

8.2%

Petron

41.72Isla Gas

16.36%

Liquigaz

25.30%

Pryce

Gas

4.81%

Petronas

7.76% Total

3.96% Shell

.09%


12/23


13/23

INTERNATIONAL OIL PRICES (MOPS)January 2005 June 2013 (in $/bbl)

PRODUCTSCRUDE

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

Jan-05

May-05

Sep-05

Jan-06

May-06

Sep-06

Jan-07

May-07

Sep-07

Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Dubai Brent West Texas Intermediate

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Dubai Unleaded Gasoline Automotive Diesel Oil LPG Contract Price


14/23

METRO MANILA PRICINGJanuary 2009 June 2013 (in Peso/liter)

DIESELGASOLINE

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

1/1-2/09

4/13-17

7/27-31

11/9-13

2/22-26

6/7-11

9/20-24

1/3-7/11

4/18-22

8/1-5

11/14-18

2/27-3/2

6/11-15

9/24-28

1/7-11

4/22-26

Calculated Based on Adviced Adjustments (Suggested Retail Price)

Calculated from Mean of Platts Singapore

Common Price Metro Manila

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

1/1-2/09

4/13-17

7/27-31

11/9-13

2/22-26

6/7-11

9/20-24

1/3-7/11

4/18-22

8/1-5

11/14-18

2/27-3/2

6/11-15

9/24-28

1/7-11

4/22-26

Calculated Based on Adviced Adjustments (Suggested Retail Price)

Calculated from Mean of Platts Singapore

Common Price Metro Manila


15/23

PREVAILING PRICES IN MM


16/23

Ensured reasonable price adjustments

Close monitoring of international prices and determining its estimatedimpact to domestic prices

Posting of oil pricing formulas in the DOE website

Posting of weekly oil price situationers, retail prices in key cities

Organized a Multi-sectoral Independent Oil Price Review Committee,

results disseminated

Implemented price mitigation measures

Regular meetings with the transport leaders for updates on the oil pricemovement and DOE programs/activities/possible assistance

Fuel discounts/CSR

Public transport assistance program (Pantawid Pasada)

Continuing IEC on Oil Situation/Pricing/Energy Efficiency/Conservation

Alternative Fuels Program

Renewable Energy Development and Utilization

DOE INITIATIVES


17/23

biodiesel bioethanol

BIOFUELS

B2 E10

AUTO-LPG

CNG

E-TRIKE

ALTERNATIVE FUELS


18/23

Malampaya Gas Field

2.7 TCF (2001)

1,000 MW Sta. Rita

First Gen/ IPP

1,200 MW Ilijan Power Plant

NPC IPP(KEPCO)

CNG Bus (2008)

Natural Gas Vehic lesProgram for Publ icTransport (NGVPPT)

200 bus es in theSouthern Luzon-

Manila route

serviced thru theSouth ExpresswayNGV Refueling

Station

at afixed/discountedpr ice for 7 yrs.

Shell Refinery

560 MW San LorenzoFirst Gen IPP

ALTERNATIVE FUEL Natural Gas


19/23


20/23

OIL ISSUES and CONCERNS

Why is there disparity of

prices in different areas?


21/23

MALAYSIA

INDONESIA

CHINA

AUSTRALIA

SINGAPORE

KOREA

THAILAND

TAIWAN

PHILIPPINES

IRAN

QATAR

UAE

SAUDI

ARABIA

IRAQ

KUWAIT

RUSSIA

JAPAN

RP IMPORT SOURCES


22/23

Limited access to local price basis

Few subscribers to Platts Price Data

Subscribers are restricted on data sharing (redistribution)

Oil refers to which crude/benchmark?

Why behavior of crudes and products prices not always the same?

What factors affect crude oil/product prices?

Impact of economic developments?

Impact of MENA developments?

Impact of shale gas price to oil price?

What could lead to repeat of 2008 historical highs?

Stockpiling now a sound strategy?

Subsidy?

Biofuels/natgas/coal regional/global developments?

OIL ISSUES and CONCERNS


23/23

Thank you!

platts oil and gas forum july 2013

Documents