population change: implications for the future of houston, … · 2019. 7. 10. · population,...

Population Change:

Implications for The Future Of

Houston, Texas,

and The United States

Steve Murdock, Ph.D.

Hobby Center for the Study of Texas

Allyn and Gladys Cline Professor of Sociology

Rice University

Total Population and Percent Population Change

in Texas and the United States, 1850-2010

Total Population Percent Change

Year Texas U.S. Texas U.S.

1850 212,592 23,191,876 --- ---

1860 604,215 31,443,321 184.2 35.6

1870 818,579 39,818,449 35.5 26.6

1880 1,591,749 50,155,783 94.5 26.0

1890 2,235,527 62,947,714 40.4 25.5

1900 3,048,710 75,994,575 36.4 20.7

1910 3,896,542 91,972,266 27.8 21.0

1920 4,663,228 105,710,620 19.7 14.9

1930 5,824,715 122,775,046 24.9 16.1

1940 6,414,824 131,669,275 10.1 7.2

1950 7,711,194 150,697,361 20.2 14.5

1960 9,579,677 179,323,175 24.2 19.0

1970 11,196,730 203,302,031 16.9 13.4

1980 14,229,191 226,545,805 27.1 11.4

1990 16,986,510 248,709,873 19.4 9.8

2000 20,851,820 281,421,906 22.8 13.2

2010 25,145,561 308,745,538 20.6 9.7

Source: Derived from the U.S. Census Bureau decennial census April 1 of reported year.

Change 2000-2010

State

2000

Population

2010

Population Numeric Percent

United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6

California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6

Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6

Virginia 7,078,515 8,001,024 922,509 13.0

Washington 5,894,121 6,724,540 830,419 14.1

Colorado 4,301,261 5,029,196 727,935 16.9

Nevada 1,998,257 2,700,551 702,294 35.1

Ten States in the United States with the

Largest Numeric Population Increase 2000-2010

Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Ten States in the United States with the

Largest Numeric Population Increase, 2010-2018

Population Change, 2010-2018

Geographic Area April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 Numeric Percent

United States 308,758,105 327,167,434 18,409,329 6.0

Texas 25,146,114 28,701,845 3,555,731 14.1

Florida 18,804,580 21,299,325 2,494,745 13.3

California 37,254,523 39,557,045 2,302,522 6.2

North Carolina 9,535,736 10,383,620 847,884 8.9

Georgia 9,688,709 10,519,475 830,766 8.6

Washington 6,724,540 7,535,591 811,051 12.1

Arizona 6,392,288 7,171,646 779,358 12.2

Colorado 5,029,316 5,695,564 666,248 13.2

Virginia 8,001,055 8,517,685 516,630 6.5

South Carolina 4,625,381 5,084,127 458,746 9.9

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2018.

Twenty-Five Largest Cities in the United States, 2018

Twenty-Five Cities in the United States with the

Largest Numeric Population Increase, 2010-2018

Twenty MSAs with the Largest Numeric Change, 2010 - 2018

Population Change 2010-2018

Metropolitan Statistical Area April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 Numeric Percent

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 6,426,222 7,539,711 1,113,489 17.3

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 5,920,487 6,997,384 1,076,897 18.2

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 4,193,127 4,857,962 664,835 15.9

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 5,286,750 5,949,951 663,201 12.5

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 5,566,294 6,198,782 632,488 11.4

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 5,636,363 6,249,950 613,587 10.9

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 3,439,805 3,939,363 499,558 14.5

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 12,828,946 13,291,486 462,540 3.6

Austin-Round Rock, TX 1,716,321 2,168,316 451,995 26.3

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 2,134,402 2,572,962 438,560 20.5

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 19,566,527 19,979,477 412,950 2.1

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 4,224,966 4,622,361 397,395 9.4

San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 4,335,587 4,729,484 393,897 9.1

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 2,543,602 2,932,415 388,813 15.3

San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 2,142,521 2,518,036 375,515 17.5

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 2,783,462 3,142,663 359,201 12.9

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 2,216,997 2,569,213 352,216 15.9

Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH 4,552,598 4,875,390 322,792 7.1

Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV 1,951,271 2,231,647 280,376 14.4

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 3,348,862 3,629,190 280,328 8.4

Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2018.

Components of Population Change

for Texas, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

Natural Increase

48%

Net International

Migration23%

Net Domestic Migration

29%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates

Total Change: 3,555,731

Components of Population Change for

Bexar County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

Natural Increase

44%

Net International

Migration17%


39%

Total Change: 271,277

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates.


Dallas County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

198,670

108,290

-34,526

Natural Increase Net InternationalMigration


-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000




Harris County, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018

370,217

259,047

-23,113

Natural Increase Net InternationalMigration


-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000



Census Estimates

2018

Top Twenty Counties in the United States

Ranked by Estimated Natural Increase, 2010-2018

July 9, 201913

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, County Population Estimates, 2018 Vintage.

Rank County State Natural Increase

1 Los Angeles County California 539,224

2 Harris County Texas 370,217

3 Cook County Illinois 233,273

4 Maricopa County Arizona 212,744

5 Kings County New York 206,516

6 Dallas County Texas 198,670

7 San Diego County California 186,724

8 Orange County California 154,691

9 San Bernardino County California 143,821

10 Tarrant County Texas 131,601

11 Queens County New York 128,622

12 Riverside County California 121,280

13 Bexar County Texas 120,281

14 Santa Clara County California 110,893

15 King County Washington 104,621

16 Miami-Dade County Florida 100,048

17 Hidalgo County Texas 96,389

18 Clark County Nevada 96,269

19 Bronx County New York 96,065

20 Salt Lake County Utah 94,545

Top Twenty Counties in the United States Ranked by

Estimated Net International Migration, 2010-2018

July 9, 201914


Rank County State Net International Migration

1 Miami-Dade County Florida 330,006

2 Los Angeles County California 316,817

3 Harris County Texas 208,178

4 King County Washington 195,659

5 Santa Clara County California 169,030

6 Cook County Illinois 131,818

7 Queens County New York 131,508

8 Broward County Florida 129,029

9 Kings County New York 120,943

10 San Diego County California 115,613

11 Dallas County Texas 111,231

12 Bronx County New York 109,733

13 Orange County Florida 87,309

14 Middlesex County Massachusetts 86,753


16 New York County New York 85,183

17 Alameda County California 84,234

18 Orange County California 74,861

19 Suffolk County Massachusetts 73,991

20 Fairfax County Virginia 73,219

Top Twenty Counties in the United States Ranked by

Estimated Net Domestic Migration, 2010-2018

July 9, 201915


Note: Domestic migration includes migrants moving from adjacent counties.

Rank County State Net Domestic Migration


2 Clark County Nevada 154,139

3 Collin County Texas 125,277

4 Denton County Texas 122,558

5 Riverside County California 121,574

6 Fort Bend County Texas 111,760

7 Lee County Florida 111,197

8 Bexar County Texas 105,268

9 Williamson County Texas 101,079

10 Wake County North Carolina 97,063

11 Montgomery County Texas 92,845

12 Travis County Texas 85,888

13 Tarrant County Texas 84,464

14 Palm Beach County Florida 83,893

15 Hillsborough County Florida 79,328

16 Pasco County Florida 74,016

17 Polk County Florida 72,507

18 Horry County South Carolina 72,001

19 Mecklenburg County North Carolina 64,535

20 Manatee County Florida 64,122

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population

by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010

Population Population Change Percent of Total Population

Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric PercentPercent of

Total Change2000 2010

NH White 194,552,774 196,817,552 2,264,778 1.2 8.3 69.1 63.7

Hispanic (All Races) 35,305,818 50,477,594 15,171,776 43.0 55.5 12.5 16.3

NH Black 33,947,837 37,685,848 3,738,011 11.0 13.7 12.1 12.2

NH Asian 10,123,169 14,465,124 4,341,955 42.9 15.9 3.6 4.7

NH Other 7,492,308 9,299,420 1,807,112 24.1 6.6 2.7 3.0

Total 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7 100.0 100.0 100.0

*Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes

persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-

Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races.

Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L. 94-171.

Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University http://HobbyCenter.Rice.edu

Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population

Under 18 Years by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010

Population Population Change Percent of Total Population

Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric PercentPercent of

Total Change2000 2010

NH White 44,027,087 39,716,562 -4,310,525 -9.8 -228.4 60.9 53.5

Hispanic (All Races) 12,342,259 17,130,891 4,788,632 38.8 253.7 17.1 23.1

NH Black 10,610,264 10,362,183 -248,081 -2.3 -13.1 14.7 14.0

NH Asian 2,420,274 3,176,129 755,855 31.2 40.0 3.3 4.3

NH Other 2,893,928 3,795,702 901,774 31.2 47.8 4.0 5.1

Total 72,293,812 74,181,467 1,887,655 2.6 100.0 100.0 100.0

*Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons

identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-

Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races.

Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L. 94-171.


Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the

Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the

Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2000 and 2010

Population Population Change

Percent of

Total Change

Racial Group 2000 2010 Numeric Percent

Percent of

Total Change 2000 2010

NH* White 758,302 938,474 180,172 23.8 38.6 60.7 54.7

NH Black 96,746 120,510 23,764 24.6 5.1 7.7 7.0

Hispanic 327,760 538,313 210,553 64.2 45.1 26.2 31.4

NH Asian & Other 66,955 118,992 52,037 77.7 11.2 5.4 6.9

Total 1,249,763 1,716,289 466,526 37.3 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171.

Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by OMB in 2013.

*NH refers to nonHispanic values for categories labeled NH are only for the nonHispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics

of all races.


Total Population Under Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for the

Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2000 and 2010


Percent of

Total Change


Percent of


NH* White 161,723 182,346 20,623 12.8 17.5 51.0 41.9

NH Black 28,862 32,637 3,775 13.1 3.2 9.1 7.5

Hispanic 109,686 185,913 76,227 69.5 64.8 34.6 42.8

NH Asian & Other 16,751 33,864 17,113 102.2 14.5 5.3 7.8

Total 317,022 434,760 117,738 37.1 100.0 100.0 100.0




of all races.


Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington

Metropolitan Statistical Area, Texas 2000 and 2010


Percent of

Total Change


Percent of


NH* White 3,081,734 3,248,509 166,775 5.4 13.6 59.3 50.5

NH Black 707,490 941,599 234,109 33.1 19.2 13.6 14.7

Hispanic 1,121,442 1,758,738 637,296 56.8 52.2 21.5 27.4

NH Asian & Other 293,460 477,368 183,908 62.7 15.0 5.6 7.4

Total 5,204,126 6,426,214 1,222,088 23.5 100.0 100.0 100.0




of all races.


Total Population Under Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for the

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2000 and 2010


Percent of

Total Change


Percent of


NH* White 735,112 699,178 -35,934 -4.9 -11.1 50.2 39.1

NH Black 227,185 277,206 50,021 22.0 15.4 15.6 15.5

Hispanic 410,193 661,960 251,767 61.4 77.5 28.1 37.1

NH Asian & Other 88,486 147,481 58,995 66.7 18.2 6.1 8.3

Total 1,460,976 1,785,825 324,849 22.2 100.0 100.0 100.0




of all races.


by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2000 and 2010


Percent of

Total Change


Percent of


NH* White 2,256,857 2,340,268 83,411 3.7 6.8 48.1 39.6

NH Black 781,159 996,221 215,062 27.5 17.5 16.6 16.8

Hispanic 1,352,393 2,096,532 744,139 55.0 60.7 28.8 35.4

NH Asian & Other 302,752 487,395 184,643 61.0 15.0 6.5 8.2

Total 4,693,161 5,920,416 1,227,255 26.1 100.0 100.0 100.0




of all races.


Under 18 by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2000 and 2010


Percent of

Total Change


Percent of


NH* White 542,563 494,054 -48,509 -8.9 -16.5 39.8 29.8

NH Black 244,702 282,991 38,289 15.6 13.0 18.0 17.1

Hispanic 489,495 744,227 254,732 52.0 86.8 35.9 45.0

NH Asian & Other 85,634 134,692 49,058 57.3 16.7 6.3 8.1

Total 1,362,394 1,655,964 293,570 21.5 100.0 100.0 100.0




of all races.

POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS

Total and Percent of the Population in Poverty and Median Household

Income by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 1999 and 2010

Race/

Ethnicity

1999 2010

Population

in Poverty%

Median

Household

Income*

Population

in Poverty%

Median

Household

Income*

NH White 16,026,542 8.3 $59,221 21,831,928 10.8 $53,988

Hispanic (All Races) 7,797,874 22.6 $44,079 12,583,542 24.8 $40,165

NH Black 7,970,165 24.8 $38,541 10,270,229 27.1 $33,568

NH Asian 1,241,291 12.6 $68,020 1,806,217 12.4 $67,142

Total 33,899,812 12.4 $54,966 47,330,502 15.3 $50,046

*In 2010 Dollars.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary File 4, 2006-2010 American Community Survey

Not all race/ethnic groups are shown here but are included in the total.


Total and Percent of the Population in Poverty and Median

Household Income by Race/Ethnicity for Texas, 1999 and 2010

Race/

Ethnicity

1999 2010

Population

in Poverty%

Median

Household

Income*

Population

in Poverty%

Median

Household

Income*

NH White 856,055 7.9 $61,542 1,111,251 9.5 $59,517

Hispanic (All Races) 1,658,434 25.4 $39,101 2,555,080 26.8 $37,087

Black 515,859 23.3 $38,378 717,458 24.7 $35,674

Asian 63,598 11.7 $65,633 120,601 12.6 $64,191

Total 3,117,609 15.4 $52,260 4,521,023 17.9 $48,615

*In 2010 Dollars.


Not all race/ethnic groups are shown here but are included in the total.


Total and Percent of the Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by

Race/Ethnicity for Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA, Texas, 1999 and 2010

Race/

Ethnicity

1999 2010

Population in

Poverty%

Median

Household

Income*

Population in

Poverty%

Median

Household

Income*

NH White 52,995 7.0 $70,307 87,639 9.3 $64,893

Hispanic (All Races) 57,897 18.1 $50,599 139,333 25.6 $39,843

NH Black 15,932 17.8 $47,130 29,904 24.4 $38,465

Asian 6,502 15.6 $64,801 11,352 13.9 $67,317

Total 134,589 11.1 $63,905 274,801 15.9 $55,744

*In 2010 Dollars



Total and Percent of the Population in Poverty and Median Household Income

by Race/Ethnicity for Dallas-Forth Worth-Arlington MSA, Texas, 1999 and 2010

Race/

Ethnicity

1999 2010

Population in

Poverty%

Median

Household

Income*

Population in

Poverty%

Median

Household

Income*

NH White 168,399 5.5 $72,291 234,244 7.3 $66,611


NH Black 134,474 19.7 $43,070 220,867 23.6 $37,539

Asian 19,165 10.0 $72,049 37,441 11.0 $70,006

Total 547,385 10.8 $63,245 934,827 14.6 $54,449

*In 2010 Dollars




by Race/Ethnicity for Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA, Texas, 1999 and 2010

Race/

Ethnicity

1999 2010

Population in

Poverty%

Median

Household

Income*

Population in

Poverty%

Median

Household

Income*

NH White 142,906 6.2 $73,353 167,593 7.1 $72,480


NH Black 167,271 22.0 $41,210 223,990 22.2 $39,638

Asian 25,338 11.4 $67,702 50,732 12.9 $67,333

Total 635,349 13.7 $58,497 986,220 16.5 $53,942

*In 2010 Dollars




by Race/Ethnicity for San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA, Texas, 1999 and 2010

Race/

Ethnicity

1999 2010

Population in

Poverty%

Median

Household

Income*

Population in

Poverty%

Median

Household

Income*

NH White 47,870 6.9 $63,329 57,496 7.4 $63,067


NH Black 17,941 19.0 $42,457 24,354 18.5 $39,004

Asian 2,277 9.8 $53,032 4,778 11.1 $56,056

Total 252,311 15.1 $51,091 351,737 16.3 $50,225

*In 2010 Dollars



PROJECTIONS

U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin:

Census 2010 and Projected for 2020 to 2060

Year

(Resident population as of July 1, Number in thousands)

Non-HispanicHispanic

(any race)Total

White alone Black alone Asian aloneAll other

races

2010 196,818 37,686 14,465 9,299 50,478 308,746

2020 199,312 41,776 18,246 10,778 63,784 333,896

2030 198,818 45,452 22,044 13,502 78,655 358,471

2040 193,887 48,769 25,881 16,603 94,876 380,016

2050 186,334 51,988 29,583 20,166 111,732 399,803

2060 178,952 55,302 33,106 24,128 128,780 420,268

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census and 2012 National Projections

Numeric Change in U.S. Population by Race and

Hispanic Origin: 2010 to 2060 (in millions)

-17.9

17.6 18.614.8

78.3

111.5

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

NH White NH Black NH Asian NH Other Hispanic(any race)

Total

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census and 2012 National Projections

Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projections of the Population in

Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2050 Under Alternative Assumptions of Age

and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Rates of Net Migration

38

Year NH1 White NH Black Hispanic

NH Asian &

Other2 Total

Assuming Zero Net Migration

2010 11,397,345 2,886,825 9,460,921 1,400,470 25,145,561

2020 11,576,595 3,122,637 11,137,672 1,536,693 27,373,597

2030 11,501,020 3,280,941 12,869,753 1,638,249 29,289,963

2040 11,182,576 3,355,500 14,570,851 1,714,232 30,823,159

2050 10,766,622 3,366,528 16,191,150 1,728,206 32,052,506

Assuming Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 2000-2010

2010 11,397,345 2,886,825 9,460,921 1,400,470 25,145,561

2020 11,752,530 3,295,198 12,031,059 1,825,130 28,903,917

2030 11,850,180 3,658,997 15,082,058 2,309,763 32,900,998

2040 11,676,157 3,951,909 18,489,803 2,881,525 36,999,394

2050 11,376,576 4,182,155 22,268,390 3,483,178 41,310,299

Assuming Net Migration Equal to 2000-2010

2010 11,397,345 2,886,825 9,460,921 1,400,470 25,145,561

2020 11,931,815 3,477,928 13,003,159 2,170,409 30,583,311

2030 12,211,664 4,080,453 17,702,132 3,288,536 37,282,785

2040 12,194,151 4,653,725 23,514,974 4,953,861 45,316,711

2050 12,024,913 5,195,861 30,701,208 7,283,548 55,205,530

1NH refers to Non-Hispanic; values shown are only for the non-Hispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics

of all races. 2NH Asian & Other category includes non-Hispanic persons who identify themselves as belonging to two or more race groups.

Percent of the Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected Through 2050

Under Alternative Assumptions of Age and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Rates of Net

Migration for the State of Texas

Year NH1 White NH Black Hispanic

NH Asian

& Other2 Total

Assuming Zero Net Migration (Scenario 0.0)

2010 45.3 11.5 37.6 5.6 100.0

2020 42.3 11.4 40.7 5.6 100.0

2030 39.3 11.2 43.9 5.6 100.0

2040 36.3 10.9 47.2 5.6 100.0

2050 33.6 10.5 50.5 5.4 100.0

Assuming Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 2000-2010 (Scenario 0.5)

2010 45.3 11.5 37.6 5.6 100.0

2020 40.7 11.4 41.6 6.3 100.0

2030 36.0 11.1 45.8 7.1 100.0

2040 31.6 10.7 50.0 7.7 100.0

2050 27.5 10.2 53.9 8.4 100.0

Assuming Net Migration Equal to 2000-2010 (Scenario 1.0)

2010 45.3 11.5 37.6 5.6 100.0

2020 39.0 11.4 42.5 7.1 100.0

2030 32.8 10.9 47.5 8.8 100.0

2040 26.9 10.3 51.9 10.9 100.0

2050 21.8 9.4 55.6 13.2 100.0

1NH refers to Non-Hispanic; values shown are only for the non-Hispanic persons in each race category. Hispanic includes Hispanics

of all races. 2NH Asian & Other category includes non-Hispanic persons who identify themselves as belonging to two or more race groups.

Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projections of the

Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2050 Under Alternative

Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration

for Harris County

Year NH White NH Black Hispanic

NH Asian &

Other Total

2010 1,349,646 754,258 1,671,540 317,015 4,092,459

Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration

2020 1,370,357 819,903 1,994,717 347,798 4,532,775

2030 1,342,716 858,777 2,316,580 363,946 4,882,019

2040 1,278,423 876,137 2,643,875 371,176 5,169,611

2050 1,198,102 876,475 2,946,940 370,587 5,392,104

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 2000-2010

2020 1,313,873 840,336 2,153,854 400,856 4,708,919

2030 1,232,849 901,576 2,698,721 482,625 5,315,771

2040 1,118,087 934,326 3,289,505 563,900 5,905,818

2050 998,149 945,431 3,909,739 646,530 6,499,849

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2010

2020 1,255,205 856,198 2,319,477 459,092 4,889,972

2030 1,113,765 921,946 3,099,887 637,362 5,772,960

2040 944,770 935,982 3,927,987 851,405 6,660,144

2050 784,522 905,382 4,767,431 1,115,138 7,572,473

Source: Tx. State Data Center and Hobby Center for the Study of Texas

Percent of Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projections of the


Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for

Harris County


NH Asian &

Other Total

2010 33.0 18.4 40.8 7.7 100.0


2020 30.2 18.1 44.0 7.7 100.0

2030 27.5 17.6 47.5 7.5 100.0

2040 24.7 16.9 51.1 7.2 100.0

2050 22.2 16.3 54.7 6.9 100.0


2020 27.9 17.8 45.7 8.5 100.0

2030 23.2 17.0 50.8 9.1 100.0

2040 18.9 15.8 55.7 9.5 100.0

2050 15.4 14.5 60.2 9.9 100.0


2020 25.7 17.5 47.4 9.4 100.0

2030 19.3 16.0 53.7 11.0 100.0

2040 14.2 14.1 59.0 12.8 100.0

2050 10.4 12.0 63.0 14.7 100.0





for Dallas County


NH Asian &

Other Total

2010 784,693 518,732 905,940 158,774 2,368,139


2020 785,498 570,153 1,107,349 177,105 2,640,105

2030 753,645 605,355 1,318,991 186,873 2,864,864

2040 701,895 627,756 1,545,129 193,673 3,068,453

2050 648,778 640,542 1,772,394 196,091 3,257,805


2020 701,757 581,409 1,155,350 198,537 2,637,053

2030 597,468 627,910 1,435,586 231,333 2,892,297

2040 491,394 656,513 1,742,378 264,046 3,154,331

2050 401,233 671,539 2,070,126 295,884 3,438,782


2020 624,417 588,760 1,201,188 221,701 2,636,066

2030 464,572 634,100 1,538,137 285,943 2,922,752

2040 329,773 645,278 1,881,934 358,341 3,215,326

2050 231,828 625,457 2,221,784 443,121 3,522,190





Dallas County


NH Asian &

Other Total

2010 33.1 21.9 38.3 6.7 100.0


2020 29.8 21.6 41.9 6.7 100.0

2030 26.3 21.1 46.0 6.5 100.0

2040 22.9 20.5 50.4 6.3 100.0

2050 19.9 19.7 54.4 6.0 100.0


2020 26.6 22.0 43.8 7.5 100.0

2030 20.7 21.7 49.6 8.0 100.0

2040 15.6 20.8 55.2 8.4 100.0

2050 11.7 19.5 60.2 8.6 100.0


2020 23.7 22.3 45.6 8.4 100.0

2030 15.9 21.7 52.6 9.8 100.0

2040 10.3 20.1 58.5 11.1 100.0

2050 6.6 17.8 63.1 12.6 100.0





for Bexar County


NH Asian &

Other Total

2010 519,123 118,460 1,006,958 70,232 1,714,773


2020 528,196 128,549 1,146,274 77,163 1,880,182

2030 520,278 135,508 1,276,112 81,862 2,013,760

2040 501,507 139,706 1,389,461 84,628 2,115,302

2050 481,423 143,029 1,486,500 84,692 2,195,644


2020 525,902 136,229 1,217,709 94,201 1,974,041

2030 516,916 152,390 1,439,718 122,526 2,231,550

2040 493,614 165,672 1,654,245 154,723 2,468,254

2050 469,414 177,610 1,860,268 188,376 2,695,668


2020 522,129 143,464 1,285,885 114,371 2,065,849

2030 505,748 166,495 1,590,232 183,992 2,446,467

2040 469,453 184,464 1,875,503 287,647 2,817,067

2050 432,051 195,931 2,122,756 430,044 3,180,782





Bexar County


NH Asian &

Other Total

2010 30.3 6.9 58.7 4.1 100.0


2020 28.1 6.8 61.0 4.1 100.0

2030 25.8 6.7 63.4 4.1 100.0

2040 23.7 6.6 65.7 4.0 100.0

2050 21.9 6.5 67.7 3.9 100.0


2020 26.6 6.9 61.7 4.8 100.0

2030 23.2 6.8 64.5 5.5 100.0

2040 20.0 6.7 67.0 6.3 100.0

2050 17.4 6.6 69.0 7.0 100.0


2020 25.3 6.9 62.2 5.5 100.0

2030 20.7 6.8 65.0 7.5 100.0

2040 16.7 6.5 66.6 10.2 100.0

2050 13.6 6.2 66.7 13.5 100.0





for Travis County


NH Asian &

Other Total

2010 517,644 82,805 342,766 81,051 1,024,266


2020 542,467 88,465 411,771 90,150 1,132,853

2030 536,215 91,785 478,734 95,689 1,202,423

2040 513,780 92,461 549,628 100,435 1,256,304

2050 486,487 91,175 616,939 102,802 1,297,403


2020 564,581 90,350 439,296 106,656 1,200,883

2030 573,841 95,516 545,978 132,872 1,348,207

2040 558,255 97,481 666,649 162,469 1,484,854

2050 545,614 96,850 794,234 194,266 1,630,964


2020 588,721 91,589 467,601 125,349 1,273,260

2030 614,740 96,704 614,488 182,710 1,508,642

2040 598,425 96,434 777,758 260,243 1,732,860

2050 591,906 91,337 944,620 362,957 1,990,820





Travis County


NH Asian &

Other Total

2010 50.5 8.1 33.5 7.9 100.0


2020 47.9 7.8 36.3 8.0 100.0

2030 44.6 7.6 39.8 8.0 100.0

2040 40.9 7.4 43.7 8.0 100.0

2050 37.5 7.0 47.6 7.9 100.0


2020 47.0 7.5 36.6 8.9 100.0

2030 42.6 7.1 40.5 9.9 100.0

2040 37.6 6.6 44.9 10.9 100.0

2050 33.5 5.9 48.7 11.9 100.0


2020 46.2 7.2 36.7 9.8 100.0

2030 40.7 6.4 40.7 12.1 100.0

2040 34.5 5.6 44.9 15.0 100.0

2050 29.7 4.6 47.4 18.2 100.0


HEALTH & HEALTHCARE

NH White, 55.5

NH Black, 12.8

Hispanic, 27.3

NH Asian & Other,

4.4

NH White, 28.1

NH Black, 12Hispanic,

47.9

NH Asian & Other,

12

2010 2050

Incidences of Diseases and Disorders by

Race/Ethnicity (%) in 2010 and Projected to

2050

NH White, 47.9

NH Black,

9.8

Hispanic, 32.9

NH Asian & Other, 9.4

NH White, 75.6

NH Black, 7.2 Hispanic,

14.7

NH Asian & Other,

2.5

2010 2050

Cancer Prevalence by Race/Ethnicity (%)

in 2010 and Projected to 2050

TEXAS EDUCATION

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

https://www.bls.gov/emp/chart-unemployment-earnings-education.htm

57

https://www.bls.gov/emp/chart-unemployment-earnings-education.htm

Mean Household Income by Race/Ethnicity,

Educational Attainment, and Occupation In Texas in 2010

Occupations

Less Than

High School

High School

/GED

Bachelor's

Degree

Graduate/

Prof Degree

NH White

Managerial & Professional $ 72,446 $ 84,504 $ 120,792 $ 149,819

Technical, Sales, & Admin. 52,930 64,179 112,843 130,471

Precision Prod., Craft, & Repairers 55,079 68,247 94,875 119,057

Operatives and Laborers 48,819 61,211 77,581 89,720

Total 50,533 64,975 114,698 144,714

NH Black





Total 31,072 42,465 78,933 94,490

Hispanic





Total 38,221 47,760 81,548 108,473

NH Asian & Other





Total 50,815 55,496 93,474 123,035

Source: Ruggles et al. 2010; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2010 Public Use Microdata Sample, 2011.

Total Public Education (All Levels) and Public Elementary and Secondary School

Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected to 2050 Using the

Projections That Assume 2000–2010 Rates of Net Migration for Texas

Year NHa White NH Black Hispanic

NH Asian

& Other Total

Total Public Education (All Levels)*

2010 2,137,393 832,202 2,805,785 348,791 6,124,171

2020 2,109,148 874,294 3,490,796 533,046 7,007,284

2030 2,128,376 955,194 4,428,574 682,196 8,194,340

2040 2,037,804 1,028,997 5,778,539 973,986 9,819,326

2050 1,979,109 1,095,342 7,207,206 1,469,755 11,751,412

Public Elementary and Secondary Schools

2010 1,547,693 632,401 2,398,684 269,066 4,847,844

2020 1,548,792 646,756 2,917,449 406,755 5,519,752

2030 1,577,470 706,263 3,715,984 480,533 6,480,250

2040 1,479,111 754,173 4,865,439 726,452 7,825,175

2050 1,446,198 798,125 6,012,677 1,109,443 9,366,443Source: Projections by the authors and 2010 data and rates derived from Texas Education Agency, Enrollment in Texas Public

Schools 2011-2012, 2011; Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, Demographic Data for Public Community College and

University Students for 1980-2010, 2011.*Excludes public health related educational institutions.

Percent of Total Public Education (All Levels), Public Elementary and

Secondary School Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and

Projected to 2050 Using the Projections That Assume 2000–2010 Rates of

Net Migration for Texas


NH Asian

& Other

Total Public Education (All Levels)*

2010 34.9 13.6 45.8 5.7

2020 30.1 12.5 49.8 7.6

2030 26.0 11.7 54.0 8.3

2040 20.8 10.5 58.8 9.9

2050 16.8 9.3 61.3 12.6

Public Elementary and Secondary Schools

2010 31.9 13.0 49.5 5.6

2020 28.1 11.7 52.9 7.3

2030 24.3 10.9 57.3 7.5

2040 18.9 9.6 62.2 9.3

2050 15.4 8.5 64.2 11.9Source: Projections by the authors and 2010 data and rates derived from Texas Education Agency, Demographic Data

for Public School Students for 1980-2010, 2011;Texas Education Agency, Enrollment in Texas Public Schools 2011-

2012, 2011; Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board 2011, Demographic Data for Public Community College and

University Students for 1980-2010, 2011.*Excludes public health related educational institutions.

Note: Enrollment data based on 2009-10 school years.

Total Public Community College, Public University, and Total Public

College and University Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010

and Projected to 2050 Using the Projection that Assumes 2000-2010

Age and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for Texas

Year NH White* NH Black Hispanic

NH Asian

& Other Total

Public Community Colleges

2010 314,976 130,786 263,600 37,261 746,623

2020 299,721 149,167 370,868 58,999 878,755

2030 296,231 163,939 459,618 92,693 1,012,481

2040 297,987 181,123 590,855 117,643 1,187,608

2050 285,152 196,248 771,788 170,627 1,423,815

Public Universities

2010 274,724 69,015 143,501 42,464 529,704

2020 260,635 78,371 202,479 67,292 608,777

2030 254,675 84,992 252,972 108,970 701,609

2040 260,706 93,701 322,245 129,891 806,543

2050 247,759 100,969 422,741 189,685 961,154

Total Public Colleges and Universities

2010 589,700 199,801 407,101 79,725 1,276,327

2020 560,356 227,538 573,347 126,291 1,487,532

2030 550,906 248,931 712,590 201,663 1,714,090

2040 558,693 274,824 913,100 247,534 1,994,151

2050 532,911 297,217 1,194,529 360,312 2,384,969* NH refers to Non-Hispanic; values for categories labeled NH are only for the Non-Hispanic persons in each race category.

Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races.

Source: Projections by the authors; and Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, 2010 Public College and University

Enrollment Database, 2012.

Percent of Public Community College, Public University, and Total Public

College and University Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and

Projected to 2050 Using the Projection that Assumes 2000-2010 Age

and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for Texas

Year NH White* NH Black HispanicNH Asian

& Other

Public Community Colleges

2010 42.2 17.5 35.3 5.0

2020 34.1 17.0 42.2 6.7

2030 29.3 16.2 45.4 9.1

2040 25.1 15.3 49.8 9.8

2050 20.0 13.8 54.2 12.0

Public Universities

2010 51.9 13.0 27.1 8.0

2020 42.8 12.9 33.3 11.0

2030 36.3 12.1 36.1 15.5

2040 32.3 11.6 40.0 16.1

2050 25.8 10.5 44.0 19.7

Total Public Colleges and Universities

2010 46.2 15.7 31.9 6.2

2020 37.7 15.3 38.5 8.5

2030 32.1 14.5 41.6 11.8

2040 28.0 13.8 45.8 12.4

2050 22.3 12.5 50.1 15.1Note: Enrollment data based upon 2009-10 school years.

* NH refers to Non-Hispanic; values for categories labeled NH are only for the Non-Hispanic persons in each race category.

Hispanic includes Hispanics of all races.

Source: Projections by the authors; and Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, 2010 Public College and University

Enrollment Database, 2012.

Percent of All Households in Poverty in 2010 and Projected for

2050 Under Alternative Assumptions of Socioeconomic Closure

Between Minority and NonHispanic White Households

17.8

20.920.3

11.9

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Current Assuming Race/EthnicitySpecific Rates

Avg. Rates of Closure,1980-2010

Full Closure to WhiteRates for 2050

20502010

The mark of a truly educated

man is to be moved deeply by

statistics.

George Bernard Shaw

Steve MurdockPhone: 210-867-4385

E-mail: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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