powering singapore's growth - premier oil · 2016. 6. 14. · singapore power demand 80,000...
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23 June 2010Premier’s gas exports – powering Singapore’s growthThe story to date and opportunities for the future
June 2010 | Page 1
Forward looking statements
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements and information that both represents management's current expectations or beliefs concerning future events and are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties.
A number of factors could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by
these forward-looking statements.
June 2010 | Page 2
West Natuna location map
June 2010 | Page 3
West Natuna planned production facilities
June 2010 | Page 4
Introduction
West Natuna – Premier Position • We acquired an operator interest in West Natuna Block A PSC in 1996 and an
interest in the Kakap PSC in 1997 which has led to our current net 14.3% overall share of the 1999 gas contract with Sembgas “GSA1”.
• GSA1 has been tremendously successful, frequently producing above the Maximum Rate with a gas price linked to oil prices; we have benefitted from a four-fold increase in gas value.
• 2008 saw our second gas sale “GSA2” with our Singapore buyers and two additional GSAs signed with new buyers in Batam.
• By 2012 Premier will be selling more than 50% of total West Natuna gas, 15% net to Premier.
• Premier’s Block A is a vitally important resource for Indonesia, annually generating in the order of $400 million in Government revenues over the next 10 years.
June 2010 | Page 5
Oil prices track HSFO
Our gas is in essence a Brent linked fuel
900
Brent vs HFSO (1 July 08 - 30 Sep 09)
500
400
100
00
200
300
600
700
800
Brent $/bbl
HS
FO $
/mt
20 60 80 100 120 140 16040
June 2010 | Page 6
The West Natuna Gas group
WNG PSCs supply gas in market shares:• Block A (Premier) 37%; Block B (ConocoPhillips) 43%; Kakap (Star Energy) 20%.• Block A has strong export capacity and we have already captured > $200 million
of extra revenue during periods when other PSCs have been unable to supply. • Block A which we operate with a 28.67% interest currently produces from the
Anoa oil platform, the Anoa Gas Export (AGX) platform and the FPSO Anoa Natuna.
• We also have an 18.75% share in the Kakap PSC.• Future new field developments will include Pelikan, Bison and Gajah Puteri for
GSA1 and Gajah Baru, Naga and Iguana for GSA2.
June 2010 | Page 7
West Natuna – gas demand to date
• Our gas supply enabled Singapore to switch from liquid fuels to more efficient cleaner gas fired power generation; our gas is 15%* cheaper than the fuel mix used previously for electricity generation in Singapore and efficiency improved from 38% to 44%*. Gas is now 80%** of the Singapore energy market.
• Singapore power generation is based around three main grid supplying power stations: Tuas Power (2670 MW), Power Seraya (3100 MW) and Senoko Power (3300 MW). These were all government owned until privatisation in 2008. In addition to these three main plants the Keppel 1 (500 MW IPP) was added in 2008**.
• In addition to the main grid suppliers Singapore also has cogen and captive power. Sembcogen generates electricity (815 MW) used to make steam for the industrial complex on Jurong Island and any surplus power is sold into the grid. ExxonMobil and Shell have significant captive power generation used within their petrochemical sites, also on Jurong.
* Singapore National Energy Policy Report** Singapore Energy Market Authority
June 2010 | Page 8
West Natuna – future gas demand
* Singapore Energy Market Authority
Singapore• Gas demand by the main generators will increase as a result of Singapore’s
economic growth (12% Q1 2010) and from population growth planned by the Government shown in the following charts.
• New generation will come from expected new power projects such as IPPs• Keppel 2: up to 900 MW*• Island Power: up to 800 MW*
• Captive power will increase as the petrochemical industries (notably ExxonMobil and Shell) add new generation in Jurong in support of their new polyethylene cracker plants.
• Cogen requirements too will increase with planned projects such as bySembcorp in support of industrial steam needs such as at Soxal’s new hydrogen plant and the Lanxess rubber plant.
June 2010 | Page 9
Singapore population growth
7.00
Singapore population growth (2000 to 2020)
5.00
4.00
1.00
0.002000
2.00
3.00
6.00
Mill
ions
2005 2015 20202010
ActualProjection
Source: SingStat
June 2010 | Page 10
Singapore GDP growth
10.0
Singapore GDP growth (2000 to 2020)
6.0
4.0
-10.02000
2.0
8.0
Per
cent
2005 2015 20202010
ActualLower RangeHigher Range
Source: MTI and Economic Strategies Committee
0.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
June 2010 | Page 11
Singapore power demand
80,000
Yearly electricity consumption by use
70,000
0
60,000
2030
DomesticManufacturingOther industriesForecast (WoodMac)
Source: EMA and WoodMac
50,000
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
June 2010 | Page 12
Singapore gas demand by sector
1800
Singapore gas demand breakdown (2000-2030)
1600
0
1400
2030
On-grid powerCaptive powerNon-power (direct sales to industry)Non-power (steam sales from Cogen)Non-power (residential and commercial)
Source: WoodMac
1200
200
400
800
1000
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
600
BB
tud
June 2010 | Page 13
West Natuna – future gas demand
Indonesia domestic gas – Government policy• Government policy is to prioritise domestic supply where possible.• Very little domestic demand is within easy connection reach of our gas.• Domestic pricing has historically been low but has risen recently to be in the $5 to
$6/MMBtu range; domestic prices are understood to be increased in future to $12 to $13/MMBtu to match international gas pricing and attract external investment to ease domestic gas supply shortage*.
• Accordingly Premier sees domestic gas as a further opportunity upside.Batam• Existing power generation is 250 MW which is fuelled by 35 BBtud of gas and, as more
domestic and light industrial users get connected, is forecast to grow at up to 15% per year.
• There is also 150 MW of diesel fuelled captive industrial generation but no grid connection is yet possible as there is insufficient external generating power.
• Two new IPPs of about 120 MW each are to be built and exclusively supplied by Premier’s Block A gas at an initial 40 BBtud rising to 55 BBtud.
* VP Boediono quoted in JakartaGlobe, June 2010
June 2010 | Page 14
West Natuna – other competition
* Singapore Energy Market Authority
• LNG• Singapore will commission its first LNG re-gas terminal during 2013*• SLNG capacity will be 3 mtpa, roughly equal to 420 BBtud.• The main driver is to ensure energy diversification and the target market is
new commercial power generation.• At current pricing LNG will be significantly more expensive than Premier gas
from West Natuna.• Initial terminal throughput is expected to be in the order of 200 BBtud rising
to nearly 300 BBtud by 2020.• Coal
• A relatively small cogen project is in development by Tuas Power (160 MW*).• Due to Singapore’s limited land space and environmental concerns we do
not expect coal to grow to major significance.
June 2010 | Page 15
Singapore gas balance
1800
Singapore gas demand – supply balance (2000-2030)
1600
0
1400
2030
Contracted and committed – DCQLNG – uncontractedNatuna Sea Block A – uncontractedNatuna Sea – YTFSouth Sumatra – uncontractedSouth Sumatra – YTFTOTAL Demand
Source: WoodMac
1200
200
400
800
1000
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
600
BB
tud
June 2010 | Page 16
Development plans to meet future gas demand
• GSA1• Our first field, Anoa, is a prolific producer and we continue to add to our
ultimate field reserves estimates.• Three new fields Pelikan, Bison and Gajah Puteri will be developed for GSA1
to maintain our share of export capability.• Our next field development, Pelikan, is likely to be on stream by 2013.
• GSA2• We are currently developing the Gajah Baru field which is the first of three
fields dedicated to GSA2; • Two more fields Naga and Iguana will be developed to maintain our
contractual Maximum Rate and to be positioned to exploit any additional demand.
June 2010 | Page 17
Natuna Block A sales gas reserves (1.5 TCF)
4. Pelikan 20137. G.Puteri 2016+
1. Gajah Baru 2011
5. Naga 2014
6. Iguana 2016
6. Bison 2016
2. WL drilling 2011
3. Anoa Phase 4 2012
BeruangLembu PetangMacan TutulIguanaNagaGajah BaruBisonGajah PuteriPelikanAnoa
Plus 11mstb oiland condensate
June 2010 | Page 18
Natuna Block A gas sales forecast
500
Natuna Block A gas sales forecast
400
0
350
Exploration potentialIguanaNagaGajah BaruBisonGajah PuteriPelikanAnoaExport capacityGSA2/3/4GSA1
300
50
100
200
250
2006
150
BB
tud
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
Double
prod
uctio
n ove
r 3 ye
arsToday
Exploration toincrease production
Extra availableexport capacity450
Possible additionalcompression
Potential Gajah Puteriacross nearby Kakap
June 2010 | Page 19
Natuna Block A infrastructure investment
10
Natuna Block A gas sales forecast
8
0
7
6
1
2
4
5
2006
3
No.
of p
latfo
rms
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2018
9
100
80
0
70
60
10
20
40
50
30
90
Pip
elin
es (k
m) /
No.
of p
rodu
cing
wel
ls
Infrastructure Today
$1.5 billion capital investment over 8 years
No. of platformsNo. of producing wellsExtra kilometres of pipeline
June 2010 | Page 20
Conclusion
• In 1996 Premier forecast that Singapore gas demand would grow strongly after 2001. There is now every indication of continued expansion at a steady rate –about 6% annually according to independent analysts Wood Mackenzie, an estimate that we believe likely to be conservative.
• Under the original gas contract, GSA1, we developed the Anoa AGX platform and associated pipeline export system. Under our new GSA2 we have commercialised an additional 500 TBtu and we are well underway to completing the Gajah Baru infrastructure.
• With five more fields to develop we are ideally placed to grow our gas sales into Singapore and to meet domestic Indonesian demand through gas sales to Batam.
• Premier’s gas sales growth will double from current levels by 2012 with further growth after that.
June 2010 | Page 21www.premier-oil.com June 2010