hampshire economic area unemployed benefit claimant count ...€¦ · 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000...

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Monthly Movements in the New Claimant Counts (CC)

Monitoring the local labour market

and business news

The Hampshire

Labour Market Bulletin

June 2017

CC Number

Up by 205 to 11,740

CC Rate

Unchanged at 1.0%

CC 16-24 Number

Down by 30 to 2,286

CC 16-24 Rate

Unchanged at 1.1%

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7Hampshire Economic Area Unemployed Benefit Claimant Count Number and

Working Age Rates (% 16-64yrs): 1990-2017

Rate

Number

recessio

n

recessio

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Number Working Age Working Age %

Hampshire Economic Area (HEA) June 2017 Headlines

Nationally, and using the Government’s preferred ILO estimates, the employment rate is 74.9% for the three months to May 2017, the highest on record. The unemployment rate is 4.5%. Locally, the nearest equivalent HEA employment rate is 77.8% for the 12 months to March 2017, while the unemployment rate is 3.7%. The more current, but narrower monthly claimant count in the HEA is up by 205 claimants to stand at 11,740 for June 2017, and up on the year by 1,315. The rate is unchanged at 1.0%.

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National (ILO) Dashboard (3 mths to May 2017 and change on previous quarter)

Employment Number

32.01 million (+175,000)

Unemployment Number

1.49 million (-64,000)

Economic Inactivity Number

8.83 million (-57,000)

16-24 Unemployment Number

562,000 (+4,000)

Employment Rate

74.9% (+0.3 ppts)

Unemployment Rate

4.5% (-0.2ppts)

Economic Inactivity Rate

21.5% (-0.2ppts)

16-24 Unemployment Rate

12.5% (no change)

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78.2 77.7 77.5 77.8 77.8

74.4 74.5 74.5 74.5 74.5 74.4 74.5 74.6 74.6 74.6 74.8 74.8 74.9

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Nearest Equivalent HEA Annual Rate UK ILO Quarter Rate (LFS)Date refers to LFS period

UK ILO Rates and Nearest Equivalent for the HEA

4.44.5

4.2 4.3

3.7

4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5

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Nearest Equivalent HEA Annual Rate UK ILO Quarter Rate (LFS)Date refers to LFS period

UK and HEA Nearest Equivalent Unemployment Rate Comparison

The Government’s preferred ILO definition from the ONS Labour Force Survey is not published

below the regional level. For a local comparison that provides the nearest equivalent statistic

there is the Annual Population Survey. This is published quarterly covering a 12 month period.

The dates in the charts refer to the LFS period not the APS.

UK and HEA Nearest Equivalent Employment Rate Comparison

Page | 4

Employment

Number Employment numbers were up on the quarter by 175,000 to reach 32.01 million. Annually,

employment is up by 324,000.

Rate The UK employment rate is 74.9% for the three months to May 2017, the joint highest on record. This

is up by 0.3 of a percentage point on the quarter, while the annual rate is up by 0.6 of a percentage point. For a local comparison, the nearest equivalent employment rate for the Hampshire Economic Area is 77.8% for the 12 months to March 2017, and 80.5% for the Hampshire County Council area.

Status Full-time employment increased on the quarter by 133,000 to 23.53 million, while part-time

employment is also up by 42,000 on the quarter to 8.48 million. The number of employees is up by 189,000 on the quarter to 27.03 million, while self-employment increased by 13,000 to 4.80 million. The number of unpaid family workers is down by 6,000 to 110,000, while the number on government supported training employment programmes is down by 21,000 to 72,000.

Pay and Inflation (Average Weekly Earnings and Consumer Price Index) • Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that

is, adjusted for price inflation) fell by 0.7% including bonuses, and fell by 0.5% excluding bonuses, compared with a year earlier. In nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation), pay increased by 1.8% including bonuses, and by 2.0% excluding bonuses, compared with a year earlier. Pay is not keeping pace with inflation.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 2.9% in May 2017, up from 2.7% in April. This is the highest the rate has been in four years and above the Bank of England's 2% target. The fall in the value of the pound since last year's Brexit referendum has increased the cost of imports, with rising food prices, cost of foreign package holidays and imported computer games all contributing.

ILO unemployment (Government's preferred measure from the LFS Survey) Number National ILO unemployment numbers are down by 64,000 on the quarter to 1.49 million for the three

months to May 2017. On the year the number is down by 152,000.

Rate The national unemployment rate is 4.5% and the lowest since 1975; and down by 0.2 of a percentage

point on the quarter. The rate is down by 0.5 of a percentage point on the year. Locally, the nearest equivalent ILO unemployment rate for the Hampshire Economic Area for the 12 months to March2017 is 3.7% compared to 3.2% in the Hampshire County Council area.

Youth Unemployment Number and Rate Nationally, the number of 16 to 24 year olds out of work is up by 4,000 on the quarter to 562,000. The

rate for 16-24yrs is 12.5%. Locally, the nearest equivalent 16-24yrs unemployment rate for the Hampshire Economic Area is 11.3% for the 12 months to March 2017, and 9.8% for the Hampshire County area.

Economic Inactivity The UK working age economic inactivity rate stands at 21.5%, and down by 0.2 of a percentage point

on the quarter. The number of economically inactive people is down by 57,000 on the quarter to 8.83 million, and is down by 55,000 on the year. Locally, the nearest equivalent ILO Economic Inactivity rate for the Hampshire Economic Area is 19.0% for the 12 months to March 2017, and 16.8% for the Hampshire County Council area.

National Commentary

Page | 5

Nearest Equivalent Local ILO Labour Market Statistics (next update October 2017)

Locally, the nearest equivalent ILO employment rate in the Hampshire Economic Area is 77.8% for the 12 months to March 2017, and 80.5% in the Hampshire County area.

The HEA ILO unemployment rate is 3.7% compared to 3.2% in the Hampshire County Council area. The nearest equivalent unemployment rate for 16-24 year olds in the Hampshire Economic Area is 11.3% for the 12 months to March 2017, and 9.8% for the Hampshire County Council area.

The nearest equivalent ILO Economic Inactivity rate for the Hampshire Economic Area is 19.0% for the 12 months to March 2017, and 16.8% for the Hampshire County Council area.

Claimant Count Number and Rates (monthly movements in the Claimant Count should be interpreted with caution)

Under the unemployed Claimant Count measure (JSA + UC),the number of claimants for June 2017 is 11,740. This represents an increase of 205 claimants on May 2017, and 1,305 more claimants compared to June 2016.

The unemployed claimant count rate is unchanged at 1.0%, but up by 0.1 of percentage point on the year. The South East rate and UK rates are unchanged on the month at 1.2% and 2.0% respectively. As such, the Hampshire Economic Area (HEA) rate is one percentage point lower than the UK rate.

Of the 14 HEA and Isle of Wight local authority districts six saw a monthly increase in unemployment benefit claimants, ranging from 10 more claimants in East Hampshire, Fareham and the New Forest to 190 extra claimants in Southampton – some of which will be down to the switch to Full-service. Basingstoke and Deane saw no change, while seven authorities saw a decrease ranging from five fewer claimants in Hart to 75 fewer claimants for the Isle of Wight.

New Claimant Count Number by Gender

Male unemployed benefit claimant numbers for June 2017 are up by 90 on May 2017 to 7,330. Female numbers are up by 110 to 4,405 claimants. Annual unemployment benefit claimant numbers for males are up on the year (June 2016) by 675, while female numbers are up by 640.

New Claimant Count Youth Unemployment

The level of 16-24 year olds on unemployment benefit decreased on the month by 30 to 2,285. The rate is unchanged on the month to 1.1%.

DWP Worklessness November 2016 (next update is August 2017 for Feb 2017 statistics)

The Hampshire Economic Area worklessness number stood at 69,070 for November 2016, a decrease of 2,340 on November 2015. The worklessness rate is 6.1%, and down by 0.2 of a percentage point on the year. This compares to the national rate of 8.4%. Please note that the worklessness figure does not include Universal Credit or Personal Independence Payments (PIPS) and will under count overall worklessness.

Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) Year 12 and 13 cohort (16-17yr olds)

The Actual NEET figure for Hampshire for May 2017 is 1.8%. Please note this is a change to the previous adjusted NEET figures for years 12-14 (see Glossary).

Local Commentary

Page | 6

Job Creation and Planned Developments

Pi Woodfired is looking to raise £0.5m to fund the expansion of its Winchester-based pizza business with a new restaurant in south London. [03-Jul-2017]

Real Eating Company is to open its eighth restaurant at Gunwharf Quays in Portsmouth, as part of plans to expand its chain to up to 16 sites. [03-Jul-2017]

Aviation Training International has won a £48m six-year Apache helicopter training contract from the Ministry of Defence, securing the future of about 70 jobs in Dorset, Hampshire and Suffolk. [29-Jun-2017]

Moto Hospitality is looking to build a new motorway service station at J6 of the M3 near Basingstoke, which could create up to 215 jobs. [28-Jun-2017]

Hermes Investment Management has won approval for an £18m refurbishment of four office buildings totalling 240,000 sq ft at the Farnborough Aerospace Centre by autumn. [21-Jun-2017]

Basingstoke & Deane Borough Council has unveiled plans for more than £1.5m of improvements to its leisure facilities by 2020. [20-Jun-2017]

Oak Retirement is planning to create 100 jobs at a new £35m retirement village due to be built near Titchfield Abbey in Fareham by December 2018, including a 70-bed care facility and 86 homes. [19-Jun-2017]

Turtle Bay is to expand its 35-strong chain of restaurants with a new site in Winchester, with the creation of up to 40 jobs. [15-Jun-2017]

Fareham Borough Council has approved plans to build a 50,000 sq ft warehouse on a two-acre site off J9 of the M27 by next summer, which could create 100 jobs. [14-Jun-2017]

Imaginatik has raised £1.4m in a share placing to fund the expansion of its Fareham-based innovation management software business. [12-Jun-2017]

Relocations, Mergers and Acquisitions

Adare is to dissolve its £240m marketing group and establish two separate businesses, including

Huddersfield-based Adare SEC and Adare International of Basingstoke. [03-Jul-2017]

Red Funnel, the Southampton-based ferry operator, is to be sold by Infracapital to a consortium of

UK and Canadian pension schemes for undisclosed terms. [03-Jul-2017]

CT Automotive, the Portsmouth-based car parts manufacturer, has undergone a multi-million pound

management buy-out with backing from HSBC. [19-Jun-2017]

Job Losses ,Closures and Administration

Somerset Care is to close Polars care home in Newport on the Isle of Wight in September, with the loss of 49 jobs. [19-Jun-2017]

Business Activity reported between 12 June 2017 and 3 July 2017

Local Business News

Page | 7

The International Labour Organisation’s (ILO) definitions are the Government’s preferred measure of labour market statistics, and taken as an estimate from the Labour Force Survey. A person is deemed to be unemployed if they are aged 16 and over who are without a job, want a job, have actively sought work in the last four weeks and are available to start work in the next two weeks; or are out of work, have found a job and are waiting to start it in the next two weeks. The Annual Population Survey modelled data for unemployment are used for the nearest equivalent ILO estimates for Local Authorities, although the two are not directly comparable. The ILO differs to the JSA claimant data, which is an actual count of those aged 16+ who are eligible and signed on as actively seeking work.

ILO Unemployment as percentage of economically-active population (seasonally adjusted)

Mar 2017 – May 2017

Male Female Total Change On The

Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Quarter Year

South East region 88,000 3.5 71,000 3.2 158,000 3.4 zero -15,000

United Kingdom 831,000 4.7 664,000 4.2 1,495,000 4.5 -64,000 -152,000

Source: Labour Force Survey. Estimates are taken from a three quarter rolling average with seasonal adjustments. Quarter difference compared to previous non-overlapping three month quarter average. Change on year refers to the same quarter period from the previous year.

Nearest Equivalent ILO Labour Market Indicators (next update October 2017)

12 months to Dec 2016

Labour Supply Labour Demand Employment Modelled Unemployment Economic Inactivity Jobs 2015 Total 000’s

% Total 000’s

%a %b Total 000’s

% Total 000’s

Density

Hampshire (CC) 691 80.5 25 3.2 2.9 138 16.8 727 0.88

Basingstoke & Deane 96 84.0 3 3.0 1.7 16 14.8 93 0.84

East Hampshire 59 79.3 2 3.3 2.4 12 17.2 59 0.84

Eastleigh 69 82.2 2 3.1 3.3 12 14.3 73 0.91

Fareham 58 81.4 2 3.0 3.5 10 14.6 58 0.83

Gosport 40 73.2 2 4.2 6.9 12 22.4 28 0.53

Hart 51 87.1 1 2.4 1.9 7 12.0 53 0.92

Havant 57 75.6 3 4.3 5.2 14 19.5 50 0.69

New Forest 87 82.1 3 2.8 1.6 17 16.9 83 0.83

Rushmoor 54 81.7 2 3.2 3.2 10 15.1 57 0.91

Test Valley 61 80.2 2 2.5 2.0 13 18.2 77 1.06

Winchester 60 75.8 2 2.9 2.8 16 21.3 96 1.29

Portsmouth 104 71.9 6 5.7 5.0 33 23.7 121 0.85

Southampton 124 71.4 7 5.2 4.1 42 24.8 134 0.78

Hampshire (HEA) 919 77.8 35 3.7 3.2 214 19.0 982 0.86

Isle of Wight 59 73.5 3 4.8 3.8 18 23.0 61 0.77

South East region* 4,485 77.7 177 3.8 3.4 1,062 19.2 4,804 0.86

United Kingdom* 31,571 74.0 1,571 4.7 3.8 9,100 22.2 34,059 0.83

Source: ONS Modelled Unemployment/Annual Population Survey. Totals represent '000s. Data are not seasonally adjusted.‘a’ Unemployment rate using 16+ population. ‘b’ Unemployed rate derived from Employed and Economically Inactive rates *Data from APS. **HEA unemployed rates are derived by aggregating from the ONS model based unemployment data and the latest APS 16+ unemployment denominator. The Modelled count and rate will be different (and lower) to the APS count and rate.

National and Regional ILO Labour Market

with Local ILO Nearest Equivalents

Page | 8

Seasonally unadjusted Claimant Counts

June 2017 Male Female Total Total Change on the

Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Month Year

Hampshire CC 4,060 1.0 2,510 0.6 6,570 0.8 35 550

Basingstoke & Deane 580 1.1 390 0.7 970 0.9 0 140

East Hampshire 270 0.8 160 0.5 430 0.6 10 -5

Eastleigh 365 0.9 230 0.6 595 0.7 50 40

Fareham 285 0.8 185 0.5 465 0.7 10 40

Gosport 380 1.4 240 0.9 620 1.2 -15 95

Hart 175 0.6 95 0.3 270 0.5 -5 35

Havant 685 1.9 410 1.1 1,095 1.5 -25 105

New Forest 415 0.8 265 0.5 680 0.7 10 10

Rushmoor 390 1.2 225 0.7 615 1.0 25 85

Test Valley 280 0.8 170 0.5 450 0.6 -15 40

Winchester 240 0.7 140 0.4 380 0.5 -15 -30

Portsmouth 1,480 2.0 880 1.3 2,360 1.7 -25 425

Southampton 1,790 2.0 1,015 1.2 2,805 1.6 190 335

Hampshire (HEA) 7,330 1.3 4,405 0.8 11,740 1.0 205 1,315

Isle of Wight 910 2.3 465 1.1 1,375 1.7 -75 90

Enterprise M3 LEP 3,935 0.9 2,370 0.5 6,305 0.7 -40 735

Solent LEP 6,275 1.5 3,665 0.9 9,940 1.3 115 1,125

South East region 39,600 1.4 24,545 0.9 64,140 1.2 -890 5,450

Great Britain 486,130 2.4 291,055 1.4 777,185 1.9 -10,555 44,670

United Kingdom 505,995 2.5 300,995 1.5 806,990 2.0 -11,220 38,795

Source: ONS.

Claimant Counts Relative to the UK and South East region (June 2017)

Claimant Counts and Change on Month and Year

Page | 9

Total Claimant Count Number change on previous month

Source: ONS

Total Claimant Count Number Annual Change

Source: ONS

The ONS monthly claimant count numbers at this geographic level are seasonally unadjusted i.e. it does not factor in naturally occurring cycles in seasonal demand for labour. To compare on a like-for-like basis the same period in the previous year should be looked at to gauge if unemployment is better or worse. Please also note that as jobcentres move to full-service changes to the those counted under Universal Credit is wider and this will increase claimant counts independently of labour market conditions. This has affected Southampton (Full-service February 2017) and will begin to affect Eastleigh (Full-service July 2017). Other Hampshire authorities will transition to Full-service during 2018.

Solent (LEP), 115

Enterprise M3 (LEP), -40

Isle of Wight, -75

Hampshire (HEA), 205

Hampshire (HCC), 35

Southampton, 190

Portsmouth, -25Winchester, -15

Test Valley, -15

Rushmoor, 25

New Forest, 10

Havant, -25

Hart, -5

Gosport, -15

Fareham, 10

Eastleigh, 50

East Hampshire, 10

Basingstoke & Deane, 0

-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300

June 2017 unemployment claimant count (JSA+UC) change on May 2017

Solent (LEP), 1,125

Enterprise M3 (LEP), 735

Isle of Wight, 90

Hampshire (HEA), 1,315

Hampshire (HCC), 550

Southampton, 335

Portsmouth, 425

Winchester, -30

Test Valley, 40

Rushmoor, 85

New Forest, 10

Havant, 105

Hart, 35

Gosport, 95

Fareham, 40

Eastleigh, 40

East Hampshire, -5

Basingstoke & Deane, 140

-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600

June 2017 unemployment benefit claimant count (JSA+UC) change on June 2016

Page | 10

UK ILO Unemployment - seasonally adjusted

Mar 2017 to Jun 2017



16-24 years 334,000 14.3 228,000 10.6 562,000 12.5 +4,000 -55,000

Source: Labour Force Survey. Rates are based on all persons of the relevant age group who are economically active. The 16-17 age group has a much higher relative unemployment rate as the majority of persons in this age group would be economically inactive and in full-time education.

Nearest Equivalent ILO Unemployment (16-24yrs) – seasonally unadjusted (next update will be Oct 2017). 12 months to Mar 2017

Total Change On Year

Number Rate Number Rate (ppts)

Hampshire (CC) 8,900 9.8 -1,900 -0.9

Portsmouth 2,900 15.0 1,300 5.2

Southampton 3,800 13.7 -300 -1.3

Hampshire (HEA) 15,600 11.3 -1,000 -0.1

Isle of Wight 1,300 12.9 100 0.0

Enterprise M3 LEP 10,200 10.5 200 0.5

Solent LEP 14,300 13.7 1,600 1.2

South East region 74,100 12.0 -3,500 -0.4

Great Britain 554,000 12.8 -62,200 -1.2

United Kingdom 572,900 12.9 -61,800 -1.1

Source: Annual Population Survey PPTS (Percentage points)

Seasonally unadjusted Claimants Counts (16-24yrs) – The more up to date, but much narrower definition of youth unemployment.



Hampshire CC 845 1.2 490 0.8 1,335 1.0 -15 145

Basingstoke & Deane 95 1.1 70 0.9 165 1.0 -5 30

East Hampshire 55 0.9 30 0.6 80 0.7 0 0

Eastleigh 95 1.5 35 0.6 130 1.0 10 0

Fareham 55 0.9 35 0.7 90 0.8 5 0

Gosport 95 2.0 65 1.6 160 1.8 0 35

Hart 20 0.5 15 0.4 35 0.4 5 10

Havant 155 2.4 85 1.4 240 1.9 -15 10

New Forest 100 1.2 55 0.7 155 1.0 -5 10

Rushmoor 70 1.3 35 0.7 110 1.1 0 10

Test Valley 60 1.1 40 0.7 100 0.9 0 10

Winchester 45 0.6 30 0.4 75 0.5 -5 30

Portsmouth 255 1.3 155 0.9 410 1.1 -15 85

Southampton 345 1.4 200 0.9 540 1.1 0 5

Hampshire (HEA) 1,445 1.3 845 0.8 2,285 1.1 -30 235

Isle of Wight 200 2.9 105 1.7 305 2.3 -40 5

Enterprise M3 LEP 660 0.8 380 0.5 1,040 0.7 -35 150

Solent LEP 1,295 1.5 730 1.0 2,025 1.3 -60 175

South East region 7,660 1.5 4,530 1.0 12,190 1.2 -335 565

Great Britain 100,840 2.7 57,470 1.6 158,310 2.2 -3,760 2,800

United Kingdom 105,360 2.8 59,650 1.7 165,015 2.2 -3,835 825

Source: ONS. Numbers rounded to nearest 5.

Young People (16-24) ILO unemployment and

Claimant Counts

Page | 11

UK ILO Unemployment - seasonally adjusted

Mar 2017 to May 2017



18-24 years 271,000 12.9 170,000 8.9 441,000 11.0 +10,000 -36,000

Source: Labour Force Survey. Rates are based on all persons of the relevant age group who are economically active. The 16-17 age group has a much higher relative unemployment rate as the majority of persons in this age group would be economically inactive and in full-time education.

There is no 18-24 APS Unemployment by age category to give a nearest equivalent.

Seasonally unadjusted Claimant Counts (18-24yrs) - The more up to date, but much narrower definition of unemployment Few 16 or 17 year olds are eligible to claim JSA/UC, so the 18-24 year measure is often used as an alternative.



Hampshire CC 840 1.6 485 1.0 1,325 1.3 -15 140


East Hampshire 55 1.3 30 0.8 80 1.0 0 5

Eastleigh 95 2.0 30 0.7 125 1.3 10 -5

Fareham 55 1.2 35 0.9 90 1.1 5 0

Gosport 95 2.5 65 2.0 160 2.3 0 40

Hart 20 0.6 15 0.6 35 0.6 5 10

Havant 155 3.1 85 1.8 235 2.4 -15 5

New Forest 100 1.7 55 1.0 155 1.3 -5 10

Rushmoor 70 1.7 35 0.9 110 1.4 0 10

Test Valley 60 1.4 40 1.0 95 1.2 -5 10

Winchester 45 0.8 30 0.5 75 0.6 0 30

Portsmouth 255 1.5 155 1.1 410 1.3 -10 85

Southampton 340 1.5 195 1.0 535 1.2 5 0

Hampshire (HEA) 1,435 1.6 830 1.0 2,270 1.3 -20 225

Isle of Wight 200 3.8 100 2.2 300 3.1 -40 5

Enterprise M3 LEP 655 1.1 380 0.7 1,040 0.9 -30 155

Solent LEP 1,285 1.8 720 1.2 2,005 1.5 -55 160

South East region 7,625 1.9 4,490 1.2 12,110 1.6 -325 550

Great Britain 100,345 3.4 56,935 2.0 157,280 2.8 -3,745 2,555

United Kingdom 104,860 3.5 59,110 2.1 163,970 2.8 -3,810 575


The 18-24 year old claimant count is sometimes preferred over the 16-24 age group as few 16 and 17 year olds are eligible to claim JSA or Universal Credit, with the majority of 16-24yr old claimants falling within the 18-24 broad age group.

Young People (18-24) ILO unemployment and

Claimant Counts

Page | 12

Nearest Equivalent ILO Unemployment (25-49yrs) – seasonally unadjusted (next update will be Oct 2017) 12 months to Mar 2017



Hampshire (CC) 9,400 2.5 -900 -0.3

Portsmouth 2,100 3.3 -100 -0.1

Southampton 2,400 3.2 -500 -0.4

Hampshire (HEA) 14,000 2.7 -1,400 -0.3

Isle of Wight 1,100 3.6 -400 -1.4

Enterprise M3 LEP 10,100 2.4 -1,400 -0.3

Solent LEP 10,600 3.1 500 0.1


Great Britain 677,500 3.7 -44,200 -0.3

United Kingdom 700,100 3.7 -45,100 -0.3

Source: Annual Population Survey PPTS (Percentage points)

Seasonally unadjusted Claimant Count (25-49yrs) - The more up to date, but narrower definition of unemployment



Hampshire CC 2,005 1.0 1,265 0.6 3,270 0.8 45 260


East Hampshire 125 0.8 85 0.5 210 0.6 0 -5

Eastleigh 175 0.8 135 0.6 305 0.7 25 25

Fareham 145 0.9 85 0.5 230 0.7 15 20

Gosport 190 1.4 95 0.7 285 1.0 -5 20

Hart 95 0.6 55 0.4 145 0.5 0 15

Havant 320 1.9 195 1.1 515 1.5 -10 35

New Forest 195 0.9 140 0.6 335 0.7 20 10

Rushmoor 200 1.1 120 0.7 320 0.9 20 55

Test Valley 120 0.7 85 0.4 200 0.5 -15 10

Winchester 125 0.7 65 0.4 195 0.6 0 -20

Portsmouth 810 2.1 500 1.4 1,310 1.8 0 210

Southampton 960 2.1 575 1.4 1,535 1.7 125 185

Hampshire (HEA) 3,775 1.3 2,345 0.8 6,120 1.1 180 660

Isle of Wight 445 2.4 230 1.2 675 1.8 -25 55

Enterprise M3 LEP 1,990 0.8 1,280 0.5 3,270 0.7 10 335

Solent LEP 3,230 1.6 1,935 1.0 5,165 1.3 140 575


Great Britain 262,320 2.5 158,800 1.5 421,120 2.0 -5,325 19,620

United Kingdom 272,655 2.5 163,900 1.5 436,555 2.0 -5,710 16,485


Younger Working Age (25-49yrs) ILO unemployment

and Claimant Count

Page | 13

Nearest Equivalent ILO Unemployment (50-64yrs) – seasonally unadjusted (next update will be Oct 2017) 12 months to Mar 2017



Hampshire (CC) 3,800 1.7 -1,000 -0.6

Portsmouth 1,200 5.3 400 2.1

Southampton ~ 1.6 ~ -0.9

Hampshire (HEA) 5,400 2.0 -900 -0.4

Isle of Wight ~ 1.6 ~ 0.6

Enterprise M3 LEP 4,500 1.9 -1,100 -0.5

Solent LEP 4,300 2.5 -200 -0.3


Great Britain 272,700 3.2 -16,800 -0.2

United Kingdom 281,000 3.2 -16,700 -0.3

Source: Annual Population Survey. ~ missing, less than 500. PPTS (Percentage points)

Seasonally unadjusted Claimant Count (50-64yrs) - The more up to date, but narrower definition of unemployment



Hampshire CC 1,210 0.9 750 0.5 1,960 0.7 0 145

Basingstoke & Deane 170 1.0 110 0.7 280 0.8 10 35

East Hampshire 85 0.7 50 0.4 135 0.5 5 -5

Eastleigh 95 0.8 60 0.5 160 0.6 10 10

Fareham 80 0.7 65 0.5 145 0.6 -10 20

Gosport 95 1.2 80 1.0 170 1.0 -10 30

Hart 60 0.7 30 0.3 85 0.5 -10 0

Havant 210 1.7 130 1.0 345 1.4 5 65

New Forest 120 0.7 70 0.4 190 0.5 -5 -10

Rushmoor 115 1.4 70 0.9 185 1.1 5 20

Test Valley 100 0.8 50 0.4 155 0.6 5 20

Winchester 70 0.6 45 0.4 115 0.5 -5 -35

Portsmouth 415 2.5 225 1.4 640 1.9 -10 130

Southampton 490 2.6 240 1.3 730 2.0 60 145

Hampshire (HEA) 2,110 1.3 1,220 0.7 3,330 1.0 55 420

Isle of Wight 265 1.8 130 0.8 395 1.3 -10 25

Enterprise M3 LEP 1,285 0.9 705 0.5 1,985 0.7 -10 245

Solent LEP 1,750 1.2 1,000 0.9 2,750 1.0 35 380


Great Britain 122,625 2.1 74,610 1.3 197,235 1.7 -1,430 22,495

United Kingdom 127,470 2.2 77,210 1.3 204,680 1.7 -1,585 21,680


Older Working Age (50-64yrs) ILO unemployment

and Claimant Count

Page | 14

Main Worklessness Measures (Hierarchical Counts*). Next update August 2017 (Feb 2017 data)

Nov 2016

Main Out of Work Jobseekers Allowance ESA/IB Lone Parent

Other Income based

Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate

Hampshire CC 43,230 5.2 4,160 0.5 32,870 4.0 5,390 0.7 810 0.1

B’stoke & Deane 5,570 5.0 630 0.6 4,120 3.7 730 0.7 90 0.1

East Hampshire 3,050 4.3 280 0.4 2,380 3.4 330 0.5 60 0.1

Eastleigh 3,720 4.6 310 0.4 2,900 3.6 450 0.6 70 0.1

Fareham 2,980 4.3 260 0.4 2,350 3.4 310 0.4 60 0.1

Gosport 4,000 7.6 370 0.7 3,000 5.7 560 1.1 80 0.1

Hart 1,730 3.0 210 0.4 1,270 2.2 230 0.4 20 0.0

Havant 6,300 8.6 760 1.0 4,480 6.1 940 1.3 120 0.2

New Forest 5,660 5.6 420 0.4 4,520 4.5 610 0.6 110 0.1

Rushmoor 3,710 5.9 390 0.6 2,740 4.3 490 0.8 90 0.1

Test Valley 3,500 4.8 280 0.4 2,710 3.7 450 0.6 60 0.1

Winchester 3,010 4.1 250 0.3 2,400 3.3 300 0.4 50 0.1

Portsmouth 11,770 8.2 1,530 1.1 8,200 5.7 1,760 1.2 270 0.2

Southampton 14,080 8.2 1,410 0.8 10,360 6.0 2,020 1.2 280 0.2

Hampshire (HEA) 69,070 6.1 7,110 0.6 51,440 4.5 9,180 0.8 1,350 0.1

Isle of Wight 8,120 10.1 1,100 1.4 5,960 7.4 870 1.1 190 0.2

Enterprise M3 LEP 46,830 5.1 4,640 0.5 35,470 3.9 5,890 0.6 830 0.1

Solent LEP 50,970 6.7 5,740 0.8 37,260 4.9 6,910 0.9 1,070 0.1

South East reg. 340,140 6.1 41,650 0.7 246,690 4.4 44,880 0.8 6,920 0.1

Great Britain 3,380,420 8.4 460,480 1.1 2,446,000 6.1 401,630 1.0 72,310 0.2

Source: Department for Work and Pensions. Excludes unemployed Universal Credit claimants and claimants on PIP. *To avoid double counting the out-of-work benefit claimants are allocated to one benefit using a hierarchical system, so that a person claiming Employment Support Allowance (ESA) and Lone Parent benefits would be counted under ESA and so forth.

Working Age Out-of-Work Benefit Claimant Rates Relative to the GB and South East region

Quarter Worklessness Statistics

Page | 15

Ward (2015) Claimant Count Hotspots June 2017

Top and Bottom 25 Wards* by New Claimant Count Number and Rate (June 2017)

25 Wards with highest Claimant Count 25 Wards with lowest Claimant Count

Ward 2015 District No. Rate Ward 2015 District No. Rate

Ryde North East Isle of Wight 100 4.2 Kingsclere B & D 10 0.3 Charles Dickens Portsmouth 465 3.4 Cheriton and Bishops Sutton Winchester 5 0.3 Newport Central Isle of Wight 80 3.3 Olivers Battery and Badger Farm Winchester 5 0.3 Newport East Isle of Wight 65 3.1 Owslebury and Curdridge Winchester 5 0.3 Bitterne Southampton 260 3.0 Upper Meon Valley Winchester 5 0.3 Battins Havant 125 2.8 Amport Test Valley 5 0.3 Bondfields Havant 115 2.7 Kings Somborne and Michelmersh Test Valley 5 0.3 Woolston Southampton 250 2.6 Bashley New Forest 5 0.3 Barncroft Havant 110 2.6 Downlands and Forest New Forest 5 0.3 Ryde South Isle of Wight 75 2.6 Binsted and Bentley East Hampshire 5 0.3 Ryde North West Isle of Wight 55 2.6 Petersfield Rother East Hampshire 5 0.3 Warren Park Havant 120 2.5 Odiham Hart 15 0.2 Nelson Portsmouth 230 2.3 Droxford, Soberton and Hambledon Winchester 5 0.2 Whippingham and Osborne Isle of Wight 55 2.3 Littleton and Harestock Winchester 5 0.2 Ventnor East Isle of Wight 40 2.3 Swanmore and Newtown Winchester 5 0.2 Redbridge Southampton 215 2.2 Ampfield and Braishfield Test Valley 5 0.2 Town Gosport 75 2.2 Blackwater Test Valley 5 0.2 Ryde East Isle of Wight 50 2.2 Romsey Extra Test Valley 5 0.2 Shanklin South Isle of Wight 40 2.2 Milford New Forest 5 0.2 Bevois Southampton 310 2.1 Alton Amery East Hampshire 5 0.2 Newport South Isle of Wight 50 2.1 Grayshott East Hampshire 5 0.2 Sandown South Isle of Wight 50 2.1 Pamber and Silchester B & D 5 0.2 Sandown North Isle of Wight 35 2.1 Sherborne St John B & D 5 0.2 Fratton Portsmouth 230 2.0 Forest North West New Forest 0 0.0 Ryde North East Isle of Wight 100 4.2 Sparsholt Winchester 0 0.0

Source: NOMIS. *Ranked highest to lowest by Rate and then by Number. B&D Basingstoke & Deane. Numbers below 3 are shown as 0 in the raw data and are equal to either 0, 1 or 2 claimants. All data are rounded to the nearest 5 and may not precisely add to the sum of the number of people claiming Claimant Counts..

Small Area Claimant Count Hotspots

Page | 16

There are several methods used to record young people who are considered to be not in education, employment or training. The three primary sources come from the annual Participation in Education, Training and Employment First Release, the Quarterly NEETS derived from the Labour Force Survey, and from local authority Client Caseload Information Systems (CCIS) as an annual adjusted average published by the Department for Education. Local Authority CCIS data is captured monthly. How to interpret the local monthly adjusted NEET data can be found on Page 20. The three sources are not comparable.

The 2016 Annual Department for Education’s Statistical First Release (SFR): Participation in Education, Training and Employment by 16-18 Year Olds in England (Next update June 2017)

The primary source of national data on 16-18 year old NEETs. The latest annual provisional rate for 16-18 year olds, at end 2016, was 6.0%, a fall of 0.5 percentage points from 6.5% at end of 2015.

Quarterly Labour Force Survey (DfE LFS Series Quarter 1, 2017)

16-18 NEET % Quarter 1: Jan-Mar 2017 Change on year (Jan-Mar 2016)

Percentage points

England 7.4% +0.8 (6.5%)

Source: Labour Force Survey LFS allows in-year estimates to be made of NEET. The quarterly LFS estimates cannot be directly compared with the headline Participation SFR series based on more detailed but less timely data.

Local NEET

DfE Annual Local Authority 16- 18-year olds Not in Education, Employment or Training (2015) 16-18 NEET Estimated NEET Estimated NEET %

Hampshire CC 1,230 3.0% Portsmouth CC 330 5.6% Southampton CC 320 4.7% Isle of Wight 120 2.8%

South East region 10.870 3.9%

Source: Department for Education. Published March 2015. The ‘local authority NEET figures’ provides an annual estimate, based on average figures for November 2013 to January 2014 each year.

Actual NEET Monthly Local Authorities’ Client Caseload Information System (CCIS) – May 2017 (yr. 12 and13 cohort only – see Glossary) Local Education Authorities capture monthly NEET for the DfE. These are not comparable to the SFR or LFS series above. See Glossary for further guidance. “-“ temporarily unavailable.

NEET Yrs 12 and 13 May 2017

Actual NEET % Actual NEET* EET

Hampshire (CC) 1.8% 500 26,452

Basingstoke & Deane - - -

East Hampshire - - -

Eastleigh - - -

Fareham - - -

Gosport - - -

Hart - - -

Havant - - -

New Forest - - -

Rushmoor - - -

Test Valley - - -

Winchester - - -

Isle of Wight 2.1% 61 2,745

Source: Hampshire County Council. EET (Employment, Education or Training). *Figures are NEET figures by academic age and based on residential postcode not location of educational setting..

Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET)

Page | 17

Labour Force Survey (LFS)/Annual Population Survey (APS) definitions Economically Active: People aged 16 and over who are either in employment or unemployed. The Economically active rate is the percentage of people aged 16 and over who are economically active. Employment: People aged 16 or over who did paid work in the reference week (whether employed or self-employed); those who had a job that they were temporarily away from; those on government supported training and employment programmes; and those doing unpaid family work (a person who works without pay in an economic enterprise operated by a related person living in the same household). The rate is the percentage of total in employment of all people in the relevant age group. ILO Unemployment: All people aged 16 and over who are:

without a job, want a job,

have actively sought work in the last four weeks and are available to start work in the next two weeks;

or are out of work, have found a job and are waiting to start it in the next two weeks. The unemployment rate is the proportion of the economically active who are unemployed. Economically Inactive: People who are neither in employment nor unemployed. This group includes, for example,

those looking after the family and/or home

Long term ill

Students

or retired. The inactive rate is expressed as a percentage of the total population aged 16 and over, but can be calculated for an population group, such as those of working age. Department for Work and Pensions definitions (New) Claimant Count: Based on the administrative records of people claiming unemployed benefits. Since November 2015 this has been the number of people previously claiming Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA) and new or transferred unemployed claimants on Universal Credit. The claimant count consists of all people claiming JSA+UC at Jobcentre Plus local offices. They must declare that they are out of work, capable of, available for and actively seeking work during the week in which their claim is made. Nationally and regionally, the claimant rate is the number of claimants resident in an area expressed as a percentage of the sum of claimants and workforce jobs in the area (mid-year estimates are used). Sub-regionally, the claimant count is the number of claimants resident in an area expressed as a proportion of the resident population of working age. As at August 2010 working age is now 16-64 for both females and males. Worklessness: Benefits that are paid to client groups subject to labour market activation policies, including: Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA); Employment Support Allowance (ESA) or Incapacity Benefit (IB); Lone parent; and Income support (IS). Sought occupations: are the types of occupations claimants are seeking when they register.

Glossary

Page | 18

Interpreting Local Actual NEET data

Local NEET data follows a common pattern over the course of an academic year, with spikes occurring naturally each September. Young people are in transition over this period and school/college destination records not returned and recorded until October. Thereafter, rates and levels are fairly stable to August. As of September 2016 the NEET are limited to just years 12 and 13 rather than years 12-14 as before. • Local authorities will only be required to include information about young people up to the end of the academic year in which they have their 18th birthday (academic age 16 and 17). Authorities will no longer be required to track young people of academic age 18. From September 2016 the DfE will no longer publish local authority statistics about academic age 18-year-olds. – The DfE will continue to publish annual LA NEET statistics, but these will only cover academic age 16 and 17-year-olds and not academic age 18-year-olds. The NEET figure will be the Actual NEET rather then the Adjusted NEET previously published. The data is not comparable to previous NEET figures and time series will resume in November 2017 with the publication September 2017 NEET. Geography Hampshire (HCC) refers to the County Council area only. The Hampshire Economic Area (HEA) includes Hampshire County Council, Portsmouth City Council and Southampton City Council. Using the ONS definition as at January 2013: The Enterprise M3 LEP covers: New Forest, Test Valley, Winchester, East Hampshire, Basingstoke and Deane, Hart, Rushmoor, Guildford, Surrey Heath, Waverley and Woking. The Solent LEP covers the New Forest, Test Valley, Winchester, Southampton, Eastleigh, Fareham, Gosport, Portsmouth, East Hampshire, Havant and the Isle of Wight. Four Hampshire districts overlap with Solent: New Forest, East Hampshire, Test Valley and Winchester. The ONS LEP definitions may differ to definitions being used locally and based on other geographies. This publication is produced by the Economic and Business Intelligence Service Hampshire County Council. For further information on the bulletin or to subscribe please contact Gareth Henry (Senior Research Officer, EBIS) E-mail: [email protected] Telephone:01962 846791

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13

September peaks September peaks

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hampshire economic area unemployed benefit claimant count ...€¦ · 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000...

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