TRANSITION

By Jeroen Baerends 9-1-2014

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PROGRAMME

What is a transition? Definition Path Tilting period

Transitions in the Netherlands Construction industy Sustainable society/economy + Renewable energy Other transitions

How to manage ? Management Guidance Rules

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We do not live in an era of change.

We live in a change of era's.

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WHAT IS A TRANSITION?

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TRANSITION

Fundamental change

Complex systems

Structure

Culture

Methods & Procedures

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+-25 years

Aggregation phasePredevelopment phase

+-25 years

Tilt

ing

perio

d

Time

Co

mp

leti

on

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TILTING PERIOD

A Period in which a lot of changes

Very rare in history

Indicated by:

Chaos ,Lack of direction, Conflicts, New dynamics

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TRANSITIONS IN THE NETHERLANDS

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CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY

Based on:

Production

Project development

Efficiency

Economic profit

Changing towards:

Custom build

Customer specific

Facilitating

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De Rotterdam

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Amsterdam Symphony11

Homeruskwartier Almere12

Floating homes, IJburg Amsterdam13

SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY

1. Clean ,Save & RenewableClean products, material and energy

2. Circular Waste as a raw material, re-use products

3. Bio-basedSustainable material, based on plants/ organic material

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10442

11534

11688

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

2010 2011 2012

9800

10000

10200

10400

10600

10800

11000

11200

11400

11600

11800

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

tota

l en

erg

ym

ix

Mil

lion

KW

H e

ne

rgy

pro

du

ctio

n

Mln kwh Total Share

RENEWABLE ENERGY

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OTHER TRANSITIONS

Food

Global & Industrial to Local & Personal

Health careEfficiency & Capacity to People-oriented

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HOW TO MANAGE ?

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You just don’t !

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WHY NOT?

No targets are available

To complex to manage

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GUIDANCE

3 Types of Guidance

1. Top Down

2. Bottom-up

3. Combination of both

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TRANSITION “RULES”

1. Stimulate niches / controversialists

2. Connect niches

3. Vision development

4. Stimulate the network of niches

5. Facilitate coordination

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SUMMARY

Complex and fundamental

Happening everywhere

Require a different approach

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MORE INFO/ SOURCES

www.drift.eur.nl

Rotmans,J. (2012) ‘In het oog van de orkaan’

Tegenlicht Aflevering: Transitie

http://youtu.be/5flugQg7Jr8

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