r. biasca & associates december , 2002

R. Biasca & AssociatesR. Biasca & AssociatesDecemberDecember, , 20022002R. Biasca & AssociatesR. Biasca & AssociatesDecemberDecember, , 20022002

AA RR GG EE NN TT II NN AAECONOMIC OUTLOOKECONOMIC OUTLOOK

BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES AND FOREIGN BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES AND FOREIGN INVESTMENTINVESTMENT

AA RR GG EE NN TT II NN AAECONOMIC OUTLOOKECONOMIC OUTLOOK

BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES AND FOREIGN BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES AND FOREIGN INVESTMENTINVESTMENT

Chamber of the AmericasChamber of the AmericasDenver, Co. USADenver, Co. USAChamber of the AmericasChamber of the AmericasDenver, Co. USADenver, Co. USA

Information SourcesInformation SourcesInformation SourcesInformation Sources

Current Situation in ArgentinaCurrent Situation in ArgentinaCurrent Situation in ArgentinaCurrent Situation in Argentina

Argentina: ForecastArgentina: ForecastArgentina: ForecastArgentina: Forecast

Business OpportunitiesBusiness OpportunitiesBusiness OpportunitiesBusiness Opportunities

CHANGECHANGECHANGECHANGE

PROPOSALSPROPOSALSPROPOSALSPROPOSALS

ANALYSISANALYSISANALYSISANALYSIS

One Framework: Biasca´s ModelOne Framework: Biasca´s Model

ONE FRAMEWORK: ONE FRAMEWORK:

Biasca´s ModelBiasca´s Model

ONE FRAMEWORK: ONE FRAMEWORK:

Biasca´s ModelBiasca´s Model

Chamber of the AmericasChamber of the Americas R. Biasca & Associates Inc. R. Biasca & Associates Inc.

CHANGECHANGECHANGECHANGE

PROPOSALSPROPOSALSPROPOSALSPROPOSALS


Business TransformationAnalogy

Business TransformationAnalogy

MEDICINEMEDICINE ORGANIZATION

DIAGNOSISDIAGNOSISDIAGNOSISDIAGNOSIS

PRESCRIPTIONPRESCRIPTION

THERAPYTHERAPY


IDEASIDEASIDEASIDEAS

ACTIONACTIONACTIONACTION

CONTRIBUTIONS:CONTRIBUTIONS:

• INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACHINTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH

• HOLISTIC, PRACTICAL INTEGRATION OF HOLISTIC, PRACTICAL INTEGRATION OF CONCEPTS AND FADSCONCEPTS AND FADS

How much change is needed?How much change is needed?How much change is needed?How much change is needed?

Current Situation in Argentina Current Situation in Argentina Current Situation in Argentina Current Situation in Argentina

Current Situation in Argentina

SITUATION IN ARGENTINASITUATION IN ARGENTINA

MAIN EVENTSMAIN EVENTS ( December, 2001 – March, 2002)( December, 2001 – March, 2002)

MAIN EVENTSMAIN EVENTS ( December, 2001 – March, 2002)( December, 2001 – March, 2002)

Five Presidents in One MonthFive Presidents in One Month

DefaultDefault

DevaluationDevaluation

US$ 1 = $ 1 to US$ 1 = $ 3.7US$ 1 = $ 1 to US$ 1 = $ 3.7

Five Presidents in One MonthFive Presidents in One Month

DefaultDefault

DevaluationDevaluation

US$ 1 = $ 1 to US$ 1 = $ 3.7US$ 1 = $ 1 to US$ 1 = $ 3.7

Deposits confiscationDeposits confiscation

Legal uncertaintyLegal uncertainty

Social UnrestSocial Unrest

Deposits confiscationDeposits confiscation

Legal uncertaintyLegal uncertainty

Social UnrestSocial Unrest

Chamber of the Americas R. Biasca & Associates Inc. R. Biasca & Associates Inc.

CURRENT SITUATIONCURRENT SITUATION CURRENT SITUATIONCURRENT SITUATION GNP decreaseGNP decrease After the largest recession in history (1998 – 2001) a brutal GNP decrease in 2002 (13%)After the largest recession in history (1998 – 2001) a brutal GNP decrease in 2002 (13%)

GNP decreaseGNP decrease After the largest recession in history (1998 – 2001) a brutal GNP decrease in 2002 (13%)After the largest recession in history (1998 – 2001) a brutal GNP decrease in 2002 (13%)

Decrease in real income per capita: 23%Decrease in real income per capita: 23% Decrease in investment per capita: 61%Decrease in investment per capita: 61%

Decrease in real income per capita: 23%Decrease in real income per capita: 23% Decrease in investment per capita: 61%Decrease in investment per capita: 61%

Investment destructionInvestment destruction 1991-98: 18% GNP 2002: 10%1991-98: 18% GNP 2002: 10%

Capital OutflowCapital Outflow 16% GNP is migrating

Debt: 170% GNP. No agreement with IMF.Debt: 170% GNP. No agreement with IMF.

InflationInflation

Investment destructionInvestment destruction 1991-98: 18% GNP 2002: 10%1991-98: 18% GNP 2002: 10%

Capital OutflowCapital Outflow 16% GNP is migrating

Debt: 170% GNP. No agreement with IMF.Debt: 170% GNP. No agreement with IMF.

InflationInflation

Consequences:Consequences:


Chamber of the Americas

High unemployment (High unemployment (official figure: 22%official figure: 22%).).

53% of population under “poverty line”53% of population under “poverty line” (25% under “survival line”).(25% under “survival line”).

2001: -1%2001: -1%

2002: 70% ?2002: 70% ?

2001: -1%2001: -1%

2002: 70% ?2002: 70% ?

R. Biasca & Associates Inc. R. Biasca & Associates Inc.

Violence and crime at unprecedent levels.Violence and crime at unprecedent levels.

Legal mess.Legal mess.

Corruption.Corruption.

Weak government.Weak government.

Assets (in US$) at lowest levels.Assets (in US$) at lowest levels.

Increased migration to other countries.Increased migration to other countries.

Violence and crime at unprecedent levels.Violence and crime at unprecedent levels.

Legal mess.Legal mess.

Corruption.Corruption.

Weak government.Weak government.

Assets (in US$) at lowest levels.Assets (in US$) at lowest levels.

Increased migration to other countries.Increased migration to other countries.



SUMMARYSUMMARY

Competitive Deterioration: 10/10Competitive Deterioration: 10/10

Inmediate Action RequieredInmediate Action Requiered

Competitive Deterioration: 10/10Competitive Deterioration: 10/10

Inmediate Action RequieredInmediate Action Requiered

R. Biasca & Associates Inc. R. Biasca & Associates Inc.

CompetitivenessCompetitivenessCompetitivenessCompetitiveness

R. Biasca & Associates Inc.R. Biasca & Associates Inc.R. Biasca & Associates Inc.R. Biasca & Associates Inc.Chamber of the AmericasChamber of the AmericasChamber of the AmericasChamber of the Americas

COUNTRYCOUNTRY RANKINGSRANKINGS

20022002 19981998

USAUSA 11 11

FINLANDFINLAND 22 66

CHILECHILE 2020 2727

SPAINSPAIN 2323 2626

BRAZILBRAZIL 3535 3535

MEXICOMEXICO 4141 3434

ARGENTINAARGENTINA 4949 3030

IMD World Competitiveness ScoreboardIMD World Competitiveness ScoreboardSource: www.imd.chSource: www.imd.ch

IMD World Competitiveness ScoreboardIMD World Competitiveness ScoreboardSource: www.imd.chSource: www.imd.ch

Another source.Another source.

World Economic ForumWorld Economic Forum

Another source.Another source.

World Economic ForumWorld Economic Forum

Which are the proposals?Which are the proposals?

Are the ideas easy to Are the ideas easy to implement?implement?

Which are the proposals?Which are the proposals?

Are the ideas easy to Are the ideas easy to implement?implement?

ARGENTINA FORECASTARGENTINA FORECASTARGENTINA FORECASTARGENTINA FORECAST

R. Biasca & Associates Inc.Chamber of the Americas

NONO YESYES

???? ??

“REMEDY”(Proposals)“REMEDY”(Proposals)

The Formula

Chamber of the Americas R. Biasca & Associates Inc.

Argentina: Forecast


2003 OUTLOOK2003 OUTLOOK2003 OUTLOOK2003 OUTLOOK

POLITICAL OUTLOOKPOLITICAL OUTLOOK POLITICAL OUTLOOKPOLITICAL OUTLOOK

Political TurmoilPolitical Turmoil Political TurmoilPolitical Turmoil

There is the risk of political violence and increased tensions during There is the risk of political violence and increased tensions during the primaries and the election campaign itself.the primaries and the election campaign itself.There is the risk of political violence and increased tensions during There is the risk of political violence and increased tensions during the primaries and the election campaign itself.the primaries and the election campaign itself.

Uncertain ElectionsUncertain Elections Uncertain ElectionsUncertain Elections

Surveys indicate that, today no candidate would have more than Surveys indicate that, today no candidate would have more than 20% of votes. Elections will take place before May, 2003.20% of votes. Elections will take place before May, 2003.Surveys indicate that, today no candidate would have more than Surveys indicate that, today no candidate would have more than 20% of votes. Elections will take place before May, 2003.20% of votes. Elections will take place before May, 2003.

A Weak New GovernmentA Weak New Government A Weak New GovernmentA Weak New Government

The heavy agenda of reform needed to raise political effectivenessThe heavy agenda of reform needed to raise political effectivenessand promote a sustainable recovery will be extremely difficult for and promote a sustainable recovery will be extremely difficult for the incoming government.the incoming government.

The heavy agenda of reform needed to raise political effectivenessThe heavy agenda of reform needed to raise political effectivenessand promote a sustainable recovery will be extremely difficult for and promote a sustainable recovery will be extremely difficult for the incoming government.the incoming government.

R. Biasca & Associates Inc.

Argentina: Forecast


ECONOMIC POLICY OUTLOOKECONOMIC POLICY OUTLOOK ECONOMIC POLICY OUTLOOKECONOMIC POLICY OUTLOOK

Risk of default in official loansRisk of default in official loans Risk of default in official loansRisk of default in official loans

An IMF agreement has remained elusive as a result of lack of An IMF agreement has remained elusive as a result of lack of progress towards resolving the deposit freeze and other issues.progress towards resolving the deposit freeze and other issues.Unless the government secures an IMF agreement, there will be aUnless the government secures an IMF agreement, there will be arisk of default on official loans.risk of default on official loans.

Quasi - CurrenciesQuasi - Currencies Quasi - CurrenciesQuasi - Currencies

Continued issuance of quasi – currencies, means inflation in the future.Continued issuance of quasi – currencies, means inflation in the future.

External and Internal DebtExternal and Internal Debt External and Internal DebtExternal and Internal Debt

Argentina needs umprecedent growth rates and extraordinary BudgetArgentina needs umprecedent growth rates and extraordinary BudgetBalanced surplus to pay some of the external debts.Balanced surplus to pay some of the external debts.


Argentina Forecast


ECONOMIC FORECASTECONOMIC FORECAST ECONOMIC FORECASTECONOMIC FORECAST

ExportsExports ExportsExports

Exports will be lifted by the devaluation and decreased consumption.Exports will be lifted by the devaluation and decreased consumption.

GrowthGrowth GrowthGrowth

Little prospect exists of a significant recovery before the second half of Little prospect exists of a significant recovery before the second half of 2003. Downward revisions to the forecast for global growth provide a 2003. Downward revisions to the forecast for global growth provide a less promising backdrop to Argentina’s economy in the medium term.less promising backdrop to Argentina’s economy in the medium term.

Retrenchment StrategiesRetrenchment Strategies Retrenchment StrategiesRetrenchment Strategies

Companies will continue to limit their investment and marketing efforts Companies will continue to limit their investment and marketing efforts and increase cost reduction measures.and increase cost reduction measures.


Business OpportunitiesBusiness OpportunitiesBusiness OpportunitiesBusiness Opportunities


ExportersExporters

Tourism industryTourism industry

Companies that manufacture previously imported goodsCompanies that manufacture previously imported goods

Investors that want to buy cheap (at hight risk)Investors that want to buy cheap (at hight risk)

ExportersExporters

Tourism industryTourism industry

Companies that manufacture previously imported goodsCompanies that manufacture previously imported goods

Investors that want to buy cheap (at hight risk)Investors that want to buy cheap (at hight risk)


Business Opportunities

OPPORTUNITIESOPPORTUNITIESOPPORTUNITIESOPPORTUNITIES

KEY ECONOMIC SECTORSKEY ECONOMIC SECTORSKEY ECONOMIC SECTORSKEY ECONOMIC SECTORS

forfor

AgricultureAgriculture

Oil, energy and miningOil, energy and mining

Food manufacturingFood manufacturing

TourismTourism

AgricultureAgriculture

Oil, energy and miningOil, energy and mining

Food manufacturingFood manufacturing

TourismTourism


SYNTHESISSYNTHESISSYNTHESISSYNTHESIS


CHANGE AND CORPORATE RENEWALBiasca’s Business Transformation Model

Holistic – Interdisciplinary - Practical

CHANGE AND CORPORATE RENEWALBiasca’s Business Transformation Model

Holistic – Interdisciplinary - Practical

COMPETITIVEPOSITION

ASSESSMENT

COMPETITIVECOMPETITIVEPOSITIONPOSITION

ASSESSMENTASSESSMENT

DiagnosisPurpose of Change?

REVOLUREVOLUTTIIOONN EVOLUEVOLUTTIIOONN

RADICAL INNOVATION

RADICAL RADICAL INNOVATIONINNOVATION

CONTINUOUSCONTINUOUSIMPROVEMENTIMPROVEMENT

Not Competitive Competitive

IdeasImprovement Proposals

ActionImplementation

C=f(R, E, A, T, P, $, )

R. physical and organizational restructuring.E. strategic change.A. new management methods, human resources.T. different technology.P. productivity and quality.$. financing and legal restructuring. proposals differ according to the country.(formula to be used depends on the competitive position)

How much change do we need?

Implementation Steps.

Change according to the country.

General Transformation Formula

KAIZENKAIKAKU

Available time decreases

MORE INFORMATIONMORE INFORMATIONMORE INFORMATIONMORE INFORMATION

Visit our Website!Visit our Website!Visit our Website!Visit our Website!

http://http://www.biasca.comwww.biasca.comhttp://http://www.biasca.comwww.biasca.com


Information Sources

SOURCES OF INFORMATIONSOURCES OF INFORMATION

Economist Intelligence Unit.Economist Intelligence Unit. www.economist.comwww.economist.com

International Monetary FundInternational Monetary Fund www.imf.orgwww.imf.org

IMDIMD www.imd.chwww.imd.ch

The Argentina Forecast ReportThe Argentina Forecast Report www.businessmonitor.comwww.businessmonitor.com

Latin American Market ReportLatin American Market Report http:// tendencias.infoamericas.comhttp:// tendencias.infoamericas.com

Argentine Central BankArgentine Central Bank www.bcra.gov.arwww.bcra.gov.ar

Argentine Economic MinistryArgentine Economic Ministry www.mecon.gov.arwww.mecon.gov.ar


INFORMATION SOURCESINFORMATION SOURCESINFORMATION SOURCESINFORMATION SOURCES


Appendix

APPENDIXAPPENDIXAPPENDIXAPPENDIX

R. BIASCA & ASSOCIATES INC.R. BIASCA & ASSOCIATES INC. Short descriptionShort description R. BIASCA & ASSOCIATES INC.R. BIASCA & ASSOCIATES INC. Short descriptionShort description

R. BIASCAR. BIASCA Brief ResumeBrief Resume

R. BIASCAR. BIASCA Brief ResumeBrief Resume

www.biasca.comwww.biasca.com Website home pageWebsite home page..

www.biasca.comwww.biasca.com Website home pageWebsite home page..


ARTICLE. ARTICLE. ““Anxious in Argentina”Anxious in Argentina”

ARTICLE. ARTICLE. ““Anxious in Argentina”Anxious in Argentina”

ARGENTINA. ARGENTINA. Factsheet.Factsheet.

ARGENTINA. ARGENTINA. Factsheet.Factsheet.


COMPETITIVENESS COMPETITIVENESS World Competitiveness Scoreboards (IMD and WEF),World Competitiveness Scoreboards (IMD and WEF),

COMPETITIVENESS COMPETITIVENESS World Competitiveness Scoreboards (IMD and WEF),World Competitiveness Scoreboards (IMD and WEF),

Appendix. Argentina. Factsheet


A R G E N T I N AA R G E N T I N AFactsheetFactsheet


BackgroundBackgroundBackgroundBackground

Protectionist and populist economic policies in the post-war era led to economic Protectionist and populist economic policies in the post-war era led to economic stagnation and hyperinflation in the 1980s.stagnation and hyperinflation in the 1980s.Carlos Menem of the Partido Justicialista (PJ, known as the Peronist Party), Carlos Menem of the Partido Justicialista (PJ, known as the Peronist Party), who was elected president in 1989, abandoned the party’s statist ideology who was elected president in 1989, abandoned the party’s statist ideology in favour of market economics and liberalisation, resulting in a period of in favour of market economics and liberalisation, resulting in a period of rapid growth. rapid growth. Mr. Menem´s failure to deepen fiscal and structural reforms in his second termMr. Menem´s failure to deepen fiscal and structural reforms in his second term(1995-99) left the economy vulnerable to a series of external shocks in 1997-99. (1995-99) left the economy vulnerable to a series of external shocks in 1997-99. Fernando de la Rua’s centre-left government, which was unable to halt the Fernando de la Rua’s centre-left government, which was unable to halt the economic decline, collapsed after two years in office in December 2001 amid economic decline, collapsed after two years in office in December 2001 amid violent protests. A Peronist, Eduardo Duhalde, was elected president by violent protests. A Peronist, Eduardo Duhalde, was elected president by Congress at the start of 2002.Congress at the start of 2002.

Protectionist and populist economic policies in the post-war era led to economic Protectionist and populist economic policies in the post-war era led to economic stagnation and hyperinflation in the 1980s.stagnation and hyperinflation in the 1980s.Carlos Menem of the Partido Justicialista (PJ, known as the Peronist Party), Carlos Menem of the Partido Justicialista (PJ, known as the Peronist Party), who was elected president in 1989, abandoned the party’s statist ideology who was elected president in 1989, abandoned the party’s statist ideology in favour of market economics and liberalisation, resulting in a period of in favour of market economics and liberalisation, resulting in a period of rapid growth. rapid growth. Mr. Menem´s failure to deepen fiscal and structural reforms in his second termMr. Menem´s failure to deepen fiscal and structural reforms in his second term(1995-99) left the economy vulnerable to a series of external shocks in 1997-99. (1995-99) left the economy vulnerable to a series of external shocks in 1997-99. Fernando de la Rua’s centre-left government, which was unable to halt the Fernando de la Rua’s centre-left government, which was unable to halt the economic decline, collapsed after two years in office in December 2001 amid economic decline, collapsed after two years in office in December 2001 amid violent protests. A Peronist, Eduardo Duhalde, was elected president by violent protests. A Peronist, Eduardo Duhalde, was elected president by Congress at the start of 2002.Congress at the start of 2002.


Political structurePolitical structurePolitical structurePolitical structure

A strong presidential system is checked by a bicameral Congress comprissing A strong presidential system is checked by a bicameral Congress comprissing a 257-member Chamber of Deputies, representatives which are elected for a 257-member Chamber of Deputies, representatives which are elected for four-year terms, and a 72-member directly elected Senate. four-year terms, and a 72-member directly elected Senate. The President serves a four-year terms. Mr. Duhalde is due to serve out the The President serves a four-year terms. Mr. Duhalde is due to serve out the remainder of Mr. de la Rua’s term until December 2003. He has promised remainder of Mr. de la Rua’s term until December 2003. He has promised to call for elections in April and not to run for re-election. to call for elections in April and not to run for re-election. The Peronists control the Senate and have a majority in the Chamber of Deputies.The Peronists control the Senate and have a majority in the Chamber of Deputies.In addition, the PJ controls 14 of the 24 provinces, including the most important In addition, the PJ controls 14 of the 24 provinces, including the most important ones. Mr. Duhalde lacks authority owing to the deep divisions within the PJ. ones. Mr. Duhalde lacks authority owing to the deep divisions within the PJ. The loss of credibility of mainstream political parties threatens governability The loss of credibility of mainstream political parties threatens governability beyond the next elections. The central government’s lack of control over the beyond the next elections. The central government’s lack of control over the provinces has brought the issue of fiscal federalism to the fore.provinces has brought the issue of fiscal federalism to the fore.







Policy issuesPolicy issuesPolicy issuesPolicy issues

A new policy framework needs to be formulated following the abandonment A new policy framework needs to be formulated following the abandonment of the Convertibility Plan, the currency board introduced in 1991, at end-2001 of the Convertibility Plan, the currency board introduced in 1991, at end-2001 and the shift to a floating exchange rate in February 2002. A disciplined fiscal and the shift to a floating exchange rate in February 2002. A disciplined fiscal stance will be important if the authorities are to stabilise the economy and to stance will be important if the authorities are to stabilise the economy and to secure the support of the IMF, so paving the way for a formal restructuring of secure the support of the IMF, so paving the way for a formal restructuring of defaulted debt and a recovery of confidence. A collapse in tax revenue will defaulted debt and a recovery of confidence. A collapse in tax revenue will complicate fiscal policy, leading the government to rely on heterodox measures complicate fiscal policy, leading the government to rely on heterodox measures such as taxes on exports. The currency board having been abandoned, the Banco such as taxes on exports. The currency board having been abandoned, the Banco Central de la Republica Argentina (BCRA, the Central Bank) has reassumed Central de la Republica Argentina (BCRA, the Central Bank) has reassumed responsibility for monetary policy, including the functions of lender of last resort. responsibility for monetary policy, including the functions of lender of last resort. Concerns exists that because it lacks independence the Central Bank will print Concerns exists that because it lacks independence the Central Bank will print money to finance the fiscal deficit. The heavy issuance of quasi-currenciesmoney to finance the fiscal deficit. The heavy issuance of quasi-currenciesby provinces to meet salary payments is also causing concern.by provinces to meet salary payments is also causing concern.


ARGENTINAARGENTINA USUS

19981998 19991999 20002000 20012001 20012001

GDP per head ($ at PPP)GDP per head ($ at PPP) 10,90510,905 10,55310,553 10,56010,560 10,21010,210 35,45035,450

GDP (% real change per year)GDP (% real change per year) 3,853,85 -3.39-3.39 -0.79-0.79 -4.41-4.41 0.250.25

Government consumptionGovernment consumption 12.5012.50 13.7213.72 13.7813.78 14.1614.16 18.4318.43

Budget balance (% of GDP)Budget balance (% of GDP) -1.57-1.57 -3.57-3.57 -2.58-2.58 -3.34-3.34 1.271.27

Consumer prices (% change pa; average)Consumer prices (% change pa; average) 0.890.89 -1.18-1.18 -0.90-0.90 -1.11-1.11 -2.83-2.83

Public debt (% of GDP)Public debt (% of GDP) 37.5837.58 42.9942.99 43.5343.53 49.4049.40 57.5257.52

Labour costs per hour (USD)Labour costs per hour (USD) 3.403.40 3.333.33 3.233.23 3.103.10 20.6720.67

Recorded unemployment (%)Recorded unemployment (%) 11.8011.80 13.0313.03 14.5514.55 16.4016.40 4.794.79

Current-account balance/GDPCurrent-account balance/GDP -4,89-4,89 -4.25-4.25 -3.16-3.16 -1.60-1.60 -3.90-3.90

Foreign-exchange reserves (bn$)Foreign-exchange reserves (bn$) 2424 2626 2525 1414 5757

Economic dataSep. 20th 2002From the Economist Intelligence UnitSource: Country Data

Economic dataSep. 20th 2002From the Economist Intelligence UnitSource: Country Data




Foreign tradeForeign tradeForeign tradeForeign tradeThe trade surplus widened and the current-account deficit narrowed in 2001The trade surplus widened and the current-account deficit narrowed in 2001

in response to depressed domestic demand and the lack of financing.in response to depressed domestic demand and the lack of financing.

TaxationTaxationTaxationTaxationThe value-added tax (VAT) rate is 21%. Exports are exempted from VAT. The corporate andThe value-added tax (VAT) rate is 21%. Exports are exempted from VAT. The corporate and

individual income-tax rates are both –35%. A tax on financial transactions instituted in individual income-tax rates are both –35%. A tax on financial transactions instituted in April April

2001 as an emergency fiscal measure will remain in force at least until late 2002. 2001 as an emergency fiscal measure will remain in force at least until late 2002.

An additional tax on exports was introduced in March 2002.An additional tax on exports was introduced in March 2002.

Major exports 2000Major exports 2000

ManufacturesManufactures

Processed agricultural productsProcessed agricultural products

Primary productsPrimary products

FuelsFuels

% of total% of total

31.031.0

30.130.1

20.620.6

18.318.3

Major imports 2000Major imports 2000

Intermediate goodsIntermediate goods

Capital goodsCapital goods

Consumer goodsConsumer goods

Capital goods parts & accesoriesCapital goods parts & accesories


33.433.4

23.523.5

18.218.2

17.217.2

Leading markets 2000Leading markets 2000

Mercosur Mercosur

EUEU

NAFTA NAFTA


32.032.0

17.517.5

14.214.2

Leading suppliers 2000Leading suppliers 2000

Mercosur Mercosur

EUEU

NAFTA NAFTA


28.628.6

22.922.9

22.422.4


Rodolfo E. Biasca Business Transformation Specialist

Impressive record as University Professor and Management Consultant Excellent Managerial Experience.

An argentine business magazine included R.Biasca in a short list of local management gurus. He is 58 years old and has had an intensive professional life as manager, consultant , and author. He has studied/worked in more than 200 organizations in 24 countries. A brief description follows.

Business Administration + Economics + Industrial Engineering + Information Technology Background (MS,MBA,DBA). Buenos Aires National University: Industrial Engineering and Computer Science. University of California, Berkeley: Business Administration. Stanford University : Economics. Executive Programs in INSEAD (France),AOTS (Japan), Wharton, Kellogg, Columbia University. Additional graduate courses at Harvard University, New York University, University of Minnesota and DV-Schule (Germany).

Management consultant and Manager Has worked in 120 firms in various industries (service and manufacturing firms) as consultant and manager in different levels and areas Present position: President of R.Biasca & Associates. This small consulting firm is affiliated to the Valuation Research Group (www.valuationresearch.com) and to Lajaconet (www.lajaconet.com). Has worked as United Nations Expert. Some international firms: Gillette, Siemens, Total, Baker-Hughes, Dekalb, Andre & Cie, Sherwin Williams, Cargill, Danfoss, Kraft-Nabisco.

University professor, seminar leader and author. Part-time professor. Major: Strategic Management ,Business Transformation , Productivity. Currently: Universidad Argentina de la Empresa (UADE University, Argentina, www.uade.edu.ar ), Executive Education Department, Management Area Coordinator and Professor. Management Dept.: Full Professor. Has taught in 41 universities in 19 countries, since 1966. Has presented over 400 management seminars in several countries. Has delivered 65 in-company seminars. Author of 12 books,42 booklets,125 papers. Main books: “Are we competitive?” (October 2001); “Results. The Formula” (2000); “Results. Action” (2000). These three last books have with an Internet appendix: www.biasca.com/results. Previous books were: ”Change Management” (1998, with an Internet Appendix: http://www.biasca.com/change; 2000 as e-book in www.e-libro.net), “Intentional Renewal” (1997), ”Resizing” (1991,1995,1997,1998), ”Downsizing” (1989), ”Efficiency” (1988,1994), ”Productivity” (1984).

Officer in professional organizations. In 2001: President, American Institute of Industrial Engineers (IIE), Argentina Chapter; President, H.H.Humphrey Alumni Association in Argentina. Officer of the Argentine Fulbright Association. In October 2000, he joined the Argentine Engineering Academy as full member. In July 2002, he was designated full member of the Pan American Academy of Engineering.

Awards. Recipient of 12 scholarships/fellowships/grants (three from the US Government and one from the Japanese Government) and 23 awards. Listed in 19 “Who’s Who” type books.

R. BIASCA & ASSOCIATES

HHIISSTTOORRYY R. Biasca & Associates is a small and prestigious argentine consulting firm in the change management field. R. Biasca is one of the argentine “management gurues” and his books “Resizing” and “Change Management” were best - sellers in Latin America in the last 10 years. Three additional new books were published during 2000 - 2001). The firm is involved in consulting since 1977 and management training since 1972. More than 120 companies in Argentina and other countries can give references. Since 1996 it belongs to the Valuation Research Group to provide valuation consulting and financing in business transformation projects. Since September 2002, R. Biasca & Associates is registered as a US firm. With offices near Denver, Colorado, it will provide education and training service to US companies with Hispanic personnel. From this office the growing list of clients in Mexico and Central America, will be helped. VVIISSIIOONN To be the an excellent management consulting company in Argentina in the competitive improvement practice. MMIISSSSIIOONN To offer clients assistance to improve their business substantially. SSCCOOPPEE Services involve consulting projects, counseling and management training activities in the following subjects:

Corporate Restructurings. Business Strategy. Mergers, Acquisitions, Alliances. Change Management. Performance Management. Appraisal of tangible and intangible assets. Valuation Consulting. Corporate Financing.

AADDDDRREESSSS IINN AARRGGEENNTTIINNAA AADDDDRREESSSS IINN TTHHEE UUSS Franklin D. Roosevelt 2445. Piso 10 1448 Kenton Street. Aurora, Colorado 80010 C1428 BOK. Buenos Aires. E-Mail: [email protected] Telefax: (54-11) 4788-9851 Internet: http://www.biasca.com

r. biasca & associates december , 2002

Documents

argentina current situation

current situation gnp

biasca associatesdecember

argentina forecastr

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risk of political violence

political effectivenessand

official loansan imf