REVENUES VS. PERCENTAGE OF GDPREVENUES VS. PERCENTAGE OF GDPREVENUES VS. PERCENTAGE OF GDPREVENUES VS. PERCENTAGE OF GDP

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

9000001981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Reven

ues

0

5

10

15

20

25

% o

f G

DP

Total_Revenues

Tax_Revenues

Non-Tax_Revenues

Revenue_Effort

Government Revenues (in Million Php)

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

9000001

98

1

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

e/

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

Total_Revenues

Tax_Revenues

Non-Tax_Revenues

government

revenues more

dependent on tax

than non-tax

0

5

10

15

20

25

301981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000 e

/

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

in p

erc

en

t

Assassinat ion of

Ninoy

Af t ermat h of t he

Dec. 1989 Coup

at t empt

Asian Financial

Cr isisRat if icat ion of t he

new Const it ut ion

- economy performed better than

expected in 2002 despite w eak

global conditions

- Personal Consumption pushed by:

> declining inf lation, > declining

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

in p

erc

en

t

Domestic_Liquidity_Growth

Real_GDP_growth

Bank_Lending_Rate

Inflation_Rate a/

During the 90s:

- bank lending rates

started inching up

- liquidity went to

speculative

investments

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Bala

nce o

f P

aym

en

ts

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Exch

an

ge r

ate

s &

Ave.

T-

Bil

l R

ate

s

Balance of Payments (in million US$) Average_Exchange_Rate

91-day_Treasury_Bill_rate

- tremendous increase in

ex port in 2005

>Manufacturers ex port

80% of total ex ports

against 43% in 1983

Aquino Assasination

Asi

an

financi

al

and

eco

nom

ic

cris

is

low T-Bill rates shows weakening currency

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Cu

rren

t A

cct.

Bak.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Exch

an

ge R

ate

s

Current_Account_Balance_(Percent_of_GNP)

Average_Exchange_Rate

> current account is negative

except in 1987

> exchange rate is rising

> the 2 indicators have a

correlation coefficient of .71

-12

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4

198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Trade Account Balance (% of GNP)

0 10

20

30

40

50

60

Average Exchange Rates (Php)

Tra

de_A

ccount_

Bala

nce_(P

erc

ent_

of_

GN

P)

Ave

rage_E

xchange_R

ate

Low Trade Account

Balance as percent

of GNP shows w

eak

currency

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000 e

/

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

GIR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Exch

an

gd

Rate

Gross_International_Reserves_(Months_of_Imports_of_Goods_&_Services)

Average_Exchange_Rate

> counter intuitive

> in the short run,

Gross

International

Reserves has an

effect on the

exchange rate but

in long term they

are not connected

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

e/

2001 2002

Tari

ff R

ate

(%

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ave.

Exch

an

ge R

ate

in

Ph

p

Average_Nominal_Tariff_Rate d/Average_Exchange_Rate

theory:

when nominal

tariff rate

declines, the

higher the

demand for

imports ergo

higher

demand for

dollar

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

e/

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

Pe

rce

nt

Bank_Lending_Rate 91-day_Treasury_Bill_rate

Bank spread from T-bill rates increasing

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Average_Exchange_Rate

Bank_Lending_Rate

Revenue_Effort

National_Government_Fiscal_Position

_(Percent_of_GNP) d/

Current_Account_Balance_(Percent_

of_GNP)

Trade_Account_Balance_(Percent_of

_GNP)

Real_GDP_grow th

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Average_Exchange_Rate Bank_Lending_Rate Domestic_Liquidity_Growth

0

5

10

15

20

25

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Mo

ney

Su

pp

ly

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Ne

t F

ore

ign

Ass

ets

& D

om

es

tic

Cre

dit

s

Money_Supply Net_Foreign_Assets Net_Domestic_Credits

In Growth

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

all

sh

are

s i

nd

ex

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

91 d

ay T

-bil

l ra

te

All_Shares_Index . . . 91-day_Treasury_Bill_rate

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

commercial & industrial

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

real GDP growth

Com

merc

ial_

&_In

dustria

lR

eal_

GD

P_gro

wth

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Ban

ks &

Fin

an

cia

l S

erv

ices I

nd

ex

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

% g

row

th G

VA

F

Banks_&_Financial_Services . . . Gross Value Added in Finance

High growth in GVAF, high index in Banks & Financial Services low growth, low index

2 indicators move the same except in 1993-1996

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

18001993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

property index

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

GVAODRE

Pro

perty

.G

VA

OD

RE

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Mining

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Real GDP Growth

Mining

Real_G

DP

_growth

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Oil

Sto

ck I

nd

ex

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

GD

P G

row

th

Oil Real_GDP_growth

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

2005:01M

2005:02M

2005:03M

2005:04M

2005:05M

2005:06M

2005:07M

2005:08M

2005:09M

2005:10M

2005:11M

2005:12M

2006:01M

2006:02M

2006:03M

2006:04M

2006:05M

2006:06M

2006:07M

2006:08M

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Y-O-Y Growth

M3

Real G

DP

Velo

city

Forestry

Agriculture and Fishery

AFF

Manufacturing

Service

Imports

Exports

Personal Consumption

Real GDP

Real GNP

Y-O-Y Change

2.020.028.95-25.4

6.05.35.22.0

6.05.35.250.9

6.46.36.45.35

6.56.36.16.6

3.53.42.35-0.9

6.01817.42.65

5.05.55.44.9

5.85.85.64.9

6.26.46.554.9

2007200620062005

ForecastActual 1st Sem

12.012.011.3214.38Domestic Liquidity (M3)

3.52.2-3.25-6.4Capital Formation

12.411.512.312.1GVAODRE

6.16.05.255.8Trade

8.05.75.48.95Trans, Comm, & Storage

1012.412.312.1Finance

2007200620062005

ForecastActual 1st Sem

Year on Year Change

2007200620062005

ForecastActual

Year on Year Change

9.29.59.9210.11***Lending Rates

6.87.07.18.3.***Inflation Rate

8.58.08.2 12.7**/***Unemployment Rate

5.55.05.196.6***91 Day T-Bill Rate

18.016.016.6-16.7*Amount of Approved Residential Construction Permit

3.52.2-9.23.4*Number of Residential Construction Permit

8.08.010.09.0Number of LTS

*1*1*1*1stststst QtrQtrQtrQtr

**April**April**April**April

***Rates***Rates***Rates***Rates