Risk ManagementThe “Reverse Ishikawa”

The Reverse Ishikawa is an effective risk management technique used to uncover high likelihood, high impact risk areas and assign ownership to solutions. It was adapted from Kaoru Ishikawa’s “fish bone” diagram, which is another risk analysis technique. Instead of looking at a project from the positive approach (“How can I plan for a good project?”), it looks at projects from the negative side (“How can I make the project fail?”). Human nature makes it easier to think of ways to destroy things than to save things.

This document will describe the process of using a Reverse Ishikawa in project risk. The format is as follows:

I. Who should participate?II. How do I prepare for the session?III. How do I conduct the session?IV. How do I follow up after the session?V. A process summary diagram entitled “Risk Analysis - “Reverse Ishikawa”

The Reverse Ishikawa can be very effective in managing risk if used properly. Conducting the session is just the first step. Using the knowledge learned from the session and following through on mitigation plans is the real power of this technique.

I. Who should participate?

The session should be facilitated by someone familiar with the technique if possible. The facilitator does not necessarily have to be familiar with the project. The role of the facilitator is to guide participants through the process and keep the process moving to an effective conclusion. The facilitator may occasionally have to interrupt discussions to keep the process on track.

Other participants should include the Project Manager, project team members and anyone else that may have a major say in the project, particularly stake holders. Larger groups are better than smaller ones, but an optimum size is between 8-16.

II. How do I prepare for the session?

Preparation consists of three activities:1. Arranging an adequate meeting facility

The room must be large enough and have enough table space so all participants have room to write and move around.

If possible, the room should have a long wall, visible by all participants, to mount the “brown paper” on.

2. Communicating about the meeting Communicate early enough so all participants have time to arrange schedules. It is very

important that the "right” people participate in the session so early communication is vital in case rescheduling is necessary to accommodate key resources. Communication should include (as for any good meeting) an objective, agenda and time requirements.

Communicate the meeting date, time, duration (about three hours), location and purpose.

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3. Preparing the room Get the following supplies:

Brown butcher or packaging paper the length of the longest wall in the meeting room. If brown paper is not available, flip charts will do in a pinch.

Lots of large Post-It pads. Different colored markers (enough for all participants). Masking tape (Post-Its don’t stay up very long without masking tape). Paper flip chart.

Hang the brown paper along a long wall so it can be seen by all. Write several general categories at equal intervals along the top of the brown paper. The

categories should be appropriate for the type of project i.e., resources, technical, planning/timing, requirements, other.

Tear off one inch pieces of masking tape to use for each Post-It. Tear off ten pieces for each participant.

Distribute the Post-Its and markers around the table.

III. How do I conduct the session?

Following are steps to conduct a Reverse Ishikawa session. The duration of the session is largely dependent upon the size of the group of participants and how much control the facilitator has with the group. Try to follow these timing guidelines: Steps 1,2 and 3 10 minutes Step 4 20 - 30 minutes Step 5 60 minutes (include a 10 minute break during this step) Step 6 5 - 10 minutes Step 7 10 minutes Steps 8,9 and 10 15 - 20 minutes

Of course these times will vary, depending on the number of expected participants, their familiarity with the process, the size of the phase (note this technique should be done at the end or beginning of each phase), etc.

1. Introduce all participants.2. Introduce the facilitator.3. Briefly explain the process, objectives and outcomes.4. Brainstorm possible risks to a successful project and write each one on a Post-It. Be as specific as

possible. Think “How could I screw this project up, as well as any project?”, “What could possible go wrong?”. Once participants have three or four Post-Its done, have them tape them to the brown paper under the appropriate category. Examples:

Not having measurable objectives Not getting the right people involved in requirements definition “Bad mouthing” the project Network problems delaying development

5. Go over every Post-It and group them similarly by theme. When all Post-Its of a similar theme are together, rate the group High, Medium or Low on likelihood to happen and by impact if it does happen. Mark the rating on one of the Post-Its in the group. Discuss any disagreements but get to agreement quickly. Keep it moving - don’t allow too much discussion. Don’t try to solve the problem here.

6. Go over all the groupings briefly and regroup or eliminate some if necessary.7. Circle each group. Count up the number of groups and divide by three. This is the number of votes

each participant will have. Each participant will vote for the group or groups they feel should be tackled first. Participants can put as many votes as they want to, up to their limit, in one or more groups. They can put all their votes in one group or spread them out among several groups.

8. Count and write the total number of votes for each group.9. On a paper flip chart, decide on and list the following for each of the highest priority groups:

Risk name - a short description of the risk group

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Risk owner - who will take ownership for planning risk mitigation Mitigation plan team members - people that will help develop the mitigation plan Plan due date - date the mitigation plan will be completed by

10. Conclude the session.

An alternative to using Post-Its, is to split them up into smaller groups (3-6 people) and get them to produce flip charts in list format. This will then require an extra step of reviewing the risks with the others, to eliminate duplication. A side benefit of this approach is getting people to build on their ideas as they are discussing them.

Then the process will be to go through each risk with everyone, getting consensus on HH HM MH, MM, LH etc. You then need only assign planners to the HH, HM and MH categories, although the others need to be captured and monitored. An extra step here, before assigning planners, is to ask the group if there are any HH,HM,MH risks, that there is an obvious solution to, that can be agreed here and not therefore assigned.

IV. How do I follow up after the session?

Follow-up is essential to the success of the Reverse Ishikawa. The Project Manager or some other risk management owner is responsible for seeing that the knowledge gained through this session does not go unused after the end of the session.

1. Document the results of the session and distribute them to all participants.2. Each risk owner should pull together their risk mitigation team to discuss contingencies and risk

reduction, then develop a plan to mitigate and/or monitor the risk. The plan may include tasks to reduce the chances of the risk happening, avoid the risk altogether, or deal with the consequences of the risk after it happens. There are four categories of risk factors to take into account when developing the mitigation plan:

Avoidable (with little effort or cost) - these factors are the front-line hit list for improvement in the short term.

Manageable - these factors can be changed to reduce risk, but only by applying additional effort and cost.

Unavoidable - these factors cannot be changed without altering the framework of the project. Not known - the risk is increased simply because these factors have not been considered, or

because the assessor is not aware of the situation.Be creative. There is actually very little that is totally unavoidable risk. The real question is, is the cost to mitigate worth the benefit derived?The mitigation plan should include, by priority of action, WHAT tasks should be done, WHO should do them, and WHEN they should be done (actual dates). Use a RACI (Responsible, Approve, Consult, Inform) chart if it helps.

3. The Project Manager or risk management owner must follow through with all remaining risk groups, working to assign risk owners, teams and “plan by” dates.

4. Add “plan by” dates to the project plan.5. Once mitigation plans are developed, all mitigation tasks are added to the project plan (risk mitigation

has a price).6. The Project Manager or risk management owner must constantly monitor risks and mitigation plan

tasks throughout the project. The primary goal is to see risk likelihood and/or impacts get lower or eliminated over time.

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